Constituency List: England L-Q



Lancashire West
County/Area: Lancashire (Lancashire)
MP: Rosie Cooper  (LAB)
Electorate: 75,975
Turnout: 63.80%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
LAB21,88345.14%51.73%
CON17,54036.19%25.29%
LIB6,57313.56% 1.87%
UKIP1,775 3.66%17.71%
OTH702 1.45% 3.41%
LAB Majority4,343 8.96%Pred Maj 26.44%
Chance of winning
LAB
93.8%
CON
5.3%
LIB
0.0%
UKIP
0.9%
OTH
0.0%


Lancaster and Fleetwood
County/Area: Lancashire (Lancashire)
MP: Eric Ollerenshaw  (CON)
Electorate: 69,908
Turnout: 61.08%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON15,40436.07%25.17%
LAB15,07135.29%43.28%
LIB8,16719.13% 2.64%
OTH3,039 7.12% 9.49%
UKIP1,020 2.39%19.42%
CON Majority333 0.78%Pred Maj 18.10%
Chance of winning
CON
15.3%
LAB
80.2%
LIB
0.0%
OTH
0.2%
UKIP
4.3%

LAB Gain

Leeds Central
County/Area: West Yorkshire (Yorkshire)
MP: Hilary Benn  (LAB)
Electorate: 64,698
Turnout: 57.80%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
LAB18,43449.30%57.07%
LIB7,78920.83% 4.44%
CON7,54120.17% 9.89%
OTH3,630 9.71%12.02%
UKIP0 0.00%16.59%
LAB Majority10,64528.47%Pred Maj 40.48%
Chance of winning
LAB
99.0%
LIB
0.0%
CON
0.4%
OTH
0.0%
UKIP
0.6%


Leeds East
County/Area: West Yorkshire (Yorkshire)
MP: George Mudie  (LAB)
Electorate: 65,067
Turnout: 58.11%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
LAB19,05650.40%57.57%
CON8,76323.17%12.89%
LIB6,61817.50% 3.16%
OTH3,376 8.93%11.06%
UKIP0 0.00%15.31%
LAB Majority10,29327.22%Pred Maj 42.26%
Chance of winning
LAB
99.1%
CON
0.6%
LIB
0.0%
OTH
0.0%
UKIP
0.3%


Leeds North East
County/Area: West Yorkshire (Yorkshire)
MP: Fabian Hamilton  (LAB)
Electorate: 67,899
Turnout: 70.01%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
LAB20,28742.68%50.35%
CON15,74233.12%22.84%
LIB9,31019.59% 3.54%
OTH1,354 2.85% 5.13%
UKIP842 1.77%18.15%
LAB Majority4,545 9.56%Pred Maj 27.52%
Chance of winning
LAB
92.1%
CON
5.7%
LIB
0.0%
OTH
0.0%
UKIP
2.2%


Leeds North West
County/Area: West Yorkshire (Yorkshire)
MP: Greg Mulholland  (LIB)
Electorate: 65,399
Turnout: 66.49%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
LIB20,65347.50%31.11%
CON11,55026.56%16.28%
LAB9,13221.00%28.77%
OTH1,548 3.56% 5.87%
UKIP600 1.38%17.96%
LIB Majority9,10320.93%Pred Maj 2.33%
Chance of winning
LIB
41.4%
CON
7.7%
LAB
39.1%
OTH
0.2%
UKIP
11.6%


Leeds West
County/Area: West Yorkshire (Yorkshire)
MP: Rachel Reeves  (LAB)
Electorate: 67,453
Turnout: 57.45%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
LAB16,38942.29%50.02%
LIB9,37324.19% 7.80%
CON7,64119.72% 9.58%
OTH4,20910.86%13.16%
UKIP1,140 2.94%19.44%
LAB Majority7,01618.10%Pred Maj 30.59%
Chance of winning
LAB
95.1%
LIB
0.0%
CON
1.1%
OTH
0.3%
UKIP
3.5%


Leicester East
County/Area: Leicestershire (East Midlands)
MP: Keith Vaz  (LAB)
Electorate: 72,986
Turnout: 65.76%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
LAB25,80453.76%60.14%
CON11,72224.42%14.42%
LIB6,81714.20% 2.34%
OTH2,927 6.10% 7.99%
UKIP725 1.51%15.11%
LAB Majority14,08229.34%Pred Maj 45.03%
Chance of winning
LAB
99.6%
CON
0.3%
LIB
0.0%
OTH
0.0%
UKIP
0.1%


Leicester South
County/Area: Leicestershire (East Midlands)
MP: Peter Soulsby  (LAB)
Electorate: 77,175
Turnout: 61.06%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
LAB21,47945.58%53.36%
LIB12,67126.89%10.19%
CON10,06621.36%11.36%
OTH2,188 4.64% 6.96%
UKIP720 1.53%18.13%
LAB Majority8,80818.69%Pred Maj 35.23%

Result shown is original general election result. Mr Jon Ashworth (Lab) held the seat in a by-election on 5 May 2011, after Sir Peter Soulsby resigned to stand for Mayor of Leicester.

Chance of winning
LAB
97.2%
LIB
0.0%
CON
0.9%
OTH
0.0%
UKIP
1.9%


Leicester West
County/Area: Leicestershire (East Midlands)
MP: Elizabeth Kendall  (LAB)
Electorate: 64,900
Turnout: 55.19%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
LAB13,74538.37%46.16%
CON9,72827.16%17.16%
LIB8,10722.63% 5.93%
OTH3,356 9.37%11.68%
UKIP883 2.47%19.07%
LAB Majority4,01711.21%Pred Maj 27.09%
Chance of winning
LAB
91.0%
CON
4.6%
LIB
0.1%
OTH
0.3%
UKIP
4.0%


Leicestershire North West
County/Area: Leicestershire (East Midlands)
MP: Andrew Bridgen  (CON)
Electorate: 71,219
Turnout: 72.95%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON23,14744.55%34.55%
LAB15,63630.10%37.06%
LIB8,63916.63% 2.75%
OTH3,396 6.54% 8.61%
UKIP1,134 2.18%17.04%
CON Majority7,51114.46%Pred Maj 2.51%
Chance of winning
CON
43.9%
LAB
53.0%
LIB
0.0%
OTH
0.2%
UKIP
2.9%

LAB Gain

Leicestershire South
County/Area: Leicestershire (East Midlands)
MP: Andrew Robathan  (CON)
Electorate: 76,639
Turnout: 71.21%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON27,00049.47%39.47%
LIB11,47621.03% 4.33%
LAB11,39220.87%28.66%
OTH2,721 4.99% 7.30%
UKIP1,988 3.64%20.25%
CON Majority15,52428.44%Pred Maj 10.81%
Chance of winning
CON
70.0%
LIB
0.1%
LAB
23.4%
OTH
0.1%
UKIP
6.4%


Leigh
County/Area: Western Manchester (Greater Manchester)
MP: Andrew Burnham  (LAB)
Electorate: 76,350
Turnout: 58.06%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
LAB21,29548.04%55.77%
CON9,28420.94%10.04%
LIB8,04918.16% 2.51%
OTH4,169 9.40%11.71%
UKIP1,535 3.46%19.97%
LAB Majority12,01127.09%Pred Maj 35.80%
Chance of winning
LAB
98.3%
CON
0.6%
LIB
0.0%
OTH
0.0%
UKIP
1.1%


Lewes
County/Area: East Sussex (South East)
MP: Norman Baker  (LIB)
Electorate: 68,708
Turnout: 72.90%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
LIB26,04852.00%36.23%
CON18,40136.74%26.79%
LAB2,508 5.01%12.50%
UKIP1,728 3.45%19.45%
OTH1,403 2.80% 5.03%
LIB Majority7,64715.27%Pred Maj 9.44%
Chance of winning
LIB
63.8%
CON
22.4%
LAB
5.7%
UKIP
8.0%
OTH
0.1%


Lewisham Deptford
County/Area: Lewisham (South London)
MP: Joan Ruddock  (LAB)
Electorate: 67,058
Turnout: 61.47%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
LAB22,13253.69%60.99%
LIB9,63323.37% 5.39%
CON5,55113.47% 6.40%
OTH3,904 9.47%11.64%
UKIP0 0.00%15.58%
LAB Majority12,49930.32%Pred Maj 45.41%
Chance of winning
LAB
99.8%
LIB
0.0%
CON
0.0%
OTH
0.0%
UKIP
0.2%


Lewisham East
County/Area: Lewisham (South London)
MP: Heidi Alexander  (LAB)
Electorate: 65,926
Turnout: 63.28%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
LAB17,96643.06%51.37%
LIB11,75028.16%10.18%
CON9,85023.61%13.11%
OTH1,382 3.31% 5.78%
UKIP771 1.85%19.56%
LAB Majority6,21614.90%Pred Maj 31.80%
Chance of winning
LAB
95.1%
LIB
0.3%
CON
1.6%
OTH
0.0%
UKIP
3.0%


Lewisham West and Penge
County/Area: Lewisham (South London)
MP: Jim Dowd  (LAB)
Electorate: 69,022
Turnout: 65.24%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
LAB18,50141.09%49.39%
LIB12,67328.14%10.16%
CON11,48925.52%15.02%
OTH1,248 2.77% 5.24%
UKIP1,117 2.48%20.19%
LAB Majority5,82812.94%Pred Maj 29.20%
Chance of winning
LAB
93.3%
LIB
0.3%
CON
2.6%
OTH
0.2%
UKIP
3.6%


Leyton and Wanstead
County/Area: Waltham Forest (North London)
MP: John Cryer  (LAB)
Electorate: 63,541
Turnout: 63.20%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
LAB17,51143.60%51.91%
LIB11,09527.63% 9.64%
CON8,92822.23%11.73%
OTH1,545 3.85% 6.32%
UKIP1,080 2.69%20.40%
LAB Majority6,41615.98%Pred Maj 31.50%
Chance of winning
LAB
95.7%
LIB
0.2%
CON
1.1%
OTH
0.0%
UKIP
3.0%


Lichfield
County/Area: Staffordshire (Severn)
MP: Michael Fabricant  (CON)
Electorate: 72,586
Turnout: 71.04%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON28,04854.40%44.28%
LIB10,36520.10% 2.93%
LAB10,23019.84%27.79%
UKIP2,920 5.66%22.63%
OTH0 0.00% 2.36%
CON Majority17,68334.29%Pred Maj 16.49%
Chance of winning
CON
80.4%
LIB
0.1%
LAB
14.7%
UKIP
4.8%
OTH
0.0%


Lincoln
County/Area: Lincolnshire (Humberside)
MP: Karl McCartney  (CON)
Electorate: 73,540
Turnout: 62.17%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON17,16337.54%27.26%
LAB16,10535.22%43.00%
LIB9,25620.24% 3.86%
OTH2,193 4.80% 7.11%
UKIP1,004 2.20%18.78%
CON Majority1,058 2.31%Pred Maj 15.74%
Chance of winning
CON
17.8%
LAB
78.6%
LIB
0.0%
OTH
0.1%
UKIP
3.5%

LAB Gain

Liverpool Riverside
County/Area: Merseyside (Lancashire)
MP: Louise Ellman  (LAB)
Electorate: 74,539
Turnout: 52.05%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
LAB22,99859.27%66.03%
LIB8,82522.74% 5.50%
CON4,24310.94% 4.98%
OTH2,061 5.31% 7.32%
UKIP674 1.74%16.16%
LAB Majority14,17336.53%Pred Maj 49.87%
Chance of winning
LAB
99.9%
LIB
0.0%
CON
0.0%
OTH
0.0%
UKIP
0.1%


Liverpool Walton
County/Area: Merseyside (Lancashire)
MP: Steve Rotheram  (LAB)
Electorate: 62,612
Turnout: 54.84%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
LAB24,70971.96%76.58%
LIB4,89114.24% 1.97%
CON2,241 6.53% 2.97%
MIN1,104 3.22% 3.22%
UKIP898 2.62%12.46%
OTH492 1.43% 2.81%
LAB Majority19,81857.72%Pred Maj 64.12%
Chance of winning
LAB
100.0%
LIB
0.0%
CON
0.0%
MIN
0.0%
UKIP
0.0%
OTH
0.0%


Liverpool Wavertree
County/Area: Merseyside (Lancashire)
MP: Luciana Berger  (LAB)
Electorate: 62,518
Turnout: 60.64%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
LAB20,13253.10%59.31%
LIB12,96534.20%16.96%
CON2,830 7.46% 3.40%
OTH1,097 2.89% 4.74%
UKIP890 2.35%15.60%
LAB Majority7,16718.90%Pred Maj 42.35%
Chance of winning
LAB
99.6%
LIB
0.0%
CON
0.0%
OTH
0.0%
UKIP
0.4%


Liverpool West Derby
County/Area: Merseyside (Lancashire)
MP: Stephen Twigg  (LAB)
Electorate: 63,082
Turnout: 56.73%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
LAB22,95364.14%68.76%
LIB4,48612.54% 1.73%
MIN3,327 9.30% 9.30%
CON3,311 9.25% 4.21%
UKIP1,093 3.05%12.91%
OTH614 1.72% 3.09%
LAB Majority18,46751.61%Pred Maj 55.85%
Chance of winning
LAB
100.0%
LIB
0.0%
MIN
0.0%
CON
0.0%
UKIP
0.0%
OTH
0.0%


Loughborough
County/Area: Leicestershire (East Midlands)
MP: Nicky Morgan  (CON)
Electorate: 77,502
Turnout: 68.18%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON21,97141.58%31.58%
LAB18,22734.50%41.87%
LIB9,67518.31% 3.02%
OTH2,040 3.86% 6.05%
UKIP925 1.75%17.48%
CON Majority3,744 7.09%Pred Maj 10.29%
Chance of winning
CON
27.8%
LAB
69.7%
LIB
0.0%
OTH
0.1%
UKIP
2.4%

LAB Gain

Louth and Horncastle
County/Area: Lincolnshire (Humberside)
MP: Sir Peter Tapsell  (CON)
Electorate: 77,650
Turnout: 65.03%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON25,06549.64%39.36%
LIB11,19422.17% 5.78%
LAB8,76017.35%25.12%
OTH3,292 6.52% 8.83%
UKIP2,183 4.32%20.91%
CON Majority13,87127.47%Pred Maj 14.24%
Chance of winning
CON
72.2%
LIB
0.1%
LAB
19.3%
OTH
0.3%
UKIP
8.1%


Ludlow
County/Area: Shropshire (Severn)
MP: Philip Dunne  (CON)
Electorate: 66,631
Turnout: 73.14%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON25,72052.78%42.67%
LIB15,97132.77%15.60%
LAB3,272 6.71%14.66%
UKIP2,127 4.36%21.33%
OTH1,642 3.37% 5.73%
CON Majority9,74920.01%Pred Maj 21.34%
Chance of winning
CON
86.1%
LIB
1.6%
LAB
5.4%
UKIP
6.9%
OTH
0.0%


Luton North
County/Area: Bedfordshire (East Anglia)
MP: Kelvin Hopkins  (LAB)
Electorate: 65,062
Turnout: 66.12%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
LAB21,19249.26%54.84%
CON13,67231.78%21.83%
LIB4,78411.12% 1.93%
OTH1,806 4.20% 5.86%
UKIP1,564 3.64%15.54%
LAB Majority7,52017.48%Pred Maj 33.01%
Chance of winning
LAB
97.8%
CON
1.7%
LIB
0.0%
OTH
0.0%
UKIP
0.5%


Luton South
County/Area: Bedfordshire (East Anglia)
MP: Gavin Shuker  (LAB)
Electorate: 59,962
Turnout: 70.40%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
LAB14,72534.88%42.60%
CON12,39629.36%19.41%
LIB9,56722.66% 6.14%
OTH4,55310.79%13.08%
UKIP975 2.31%18.77%
LAB Majority2,329 5.52%Pred Maj 23.18%
Chance of winning
LAB
83.3%
CON
9.3%
LIB
0.3%
OTH
0.9%
UKIP
6.2%


Macclesfield
County/Area: Cheshire (Severn)
MP: David Rutley  (CON)
Electorate: 73,417
Turnout: 68.18%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON23,50346.95%36.84%
LIB11,54423.06% 5.89%
LAB10,16420.30%28.25%
OTH3,430 6.85% 9.22%
UKIP1,418 2.83%19.80%
CON Majority11,95923.89%Pred Maj 8.58%
Chance of winning
CON
64.1%
LIB
0.3%
LAB
27.6%
OTH
0.5%
UKIP
7.5%


Maidenhead
County/Area: Berkshire (South)
MP: Theresa May  (CON)
Electorate: 72,844
Turnout: 73.75%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON31,93759.45%49.50%
LIB15,16828.24%12.46%
LAB3,795 7.06%14.56%
OTH1,577 2.94% 5.17%
UKIP1,243 2.31%18.31%
CON Majority16,76931.22%Pred Maj 31.19%
Chance of winning
CON
94.7%
LIB
0.4%
LAB
2.6%
OTH
0.0%
UKIP
2.3%


Maidstone and The Weald
County/Area: Kent (South East)
MP: Helen Grant  (CON)
Electorate: 71,041
Turnout: 68.87%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON23,49148.01%38.06%
LIB17,60235.98%20.20%
LAB4,769 9.75%17.24%
UKIP1,637 3.35%19.34%
OTH1,429 2.92% 5.15%
CON Majority5,88912.04%Pred Maj 17.86%
Chance of winning
CON
78.7%
LIB
4.5%
LAB
8.5%
UKIP
8.3%
OTH
0.0%


Makerfield
County/Area: Western Manchester (Greater Manchester)
MP: Yvonne Fovargue  (LAB)
Electorate: 73,641
Turnout: 59.44%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
LAB20,70047.29%54.34%
CON8,21018.76% 8.53%
LIB7,08216.18% 2.23%
OTH4,355 9.95%12.04%
MIN3,424 7.82% 7.82%
UKIP0 0.00%15.03%
LAB Majority12,49028.53%Pred Maj 39.31%
Chance of winning
LAB
99.4%
CON
0.3%
LIB
0.0%
OTH
0.0%
MIN
0.0%
UKIP
0.3%


Maldon
County/Area: Essex (Essex)
MP: John Whittingdale  (CON)
Electorate: 68,861
Turnout: 69.55%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON28,66159.84%49.89%
LIB9,25419.32% 3.36%
LAB6,07012.67%20.23%
UKIP2,446 5.11%21.22%
OTH1,464 3.06% 5.30%
CON Majority19,40740.52%Pred Maj 28.67%
Chance of winning
CON
93.6%
LIB
0.1%
LAB
3.5%
UKIP
2.8%
OTH
0.0%


Manchester Central
County/Area: Central Manchester (Greater Manchester)
MP: Tony Lloyd  (LAB)
Electorate: 90,110
Turnout: 44.31%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
LAB21,05952.74%59.64%
LIB10,62026.60% 9.36%
CON4,70411.78% 5.36%
OTH2,937 7.36% 9.41%
UKIP607 1.52%16.23%
LAB Majority10,43926.15%Pred Maj 43.40%

Result shown is original general election result. Ms Lucy Powell (Lab) held the seat in a by-election on 15 November 2012, after Mr Tony Lloyd resigned to stand successfully for Manchester Police Commissioner.

Chance of winning
LAB
99.7%
LIB
0.0%
CON
0.0%
OTH
0.0%
UKIP
0.3%


Manchester Gorton
County/Area: Central Manchester (Greater Manchester)
MP: Sir Gerald Kaufman  (LAB)
Electorate: 75,933
Turnout: 50.47%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
LAB19,21150.13%56.90%
LIB12,50832.64%15.40%
CON4,22411.02% 5.01%
OTH2,382 6.22% 8.23%
UKIP0 0.00%14.46%
LAB Majority6,70317.49%Pred Maj 41.51%
Chance of winning
LAB
99.5%
LIB
0.0%
CON
0.0%
OTH
0.0%
UKIP
0.5%


Manchester Withington
County/Area: Central Manchester (Greater Manchester)
MP: John Leech  (LIB)
Electorate: 74,371
Turnout: 60.55%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
LIB20,11044.66%27.42%
LAB18,21640.45%47.24%
CON5,00511.11% 5.06%
OTH1,002 2.23% 4.24%
UKIP698 1.55%16.04%
LIB Majority1,894 4.21%Pred Maj 19.82%
Chance of winning
LIB
6.1%
LAB
89.9%
CON
0.3%
OTH
0.0%
UKIP
3.7%

LAB Gain

Mansfield
County/Area: Nottinghamshire (East Midlands)
MP: Alan Meale  (LAB)
Electorate: 80,069
Turnout: 60.44%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
LAB18,75338.75%45.42%
CON12,74126.33%16.32%
LIB7,46915.43% 2.55%
MIN4,339 8.97% 8.97%
UKIP2,985 6.17%20.40%
OTH2,108 4.36% 6.34%
LAB Majority6,01212.42%Pred Maj 25.02%
Chance of winning
LAB
92.8%
CON
3.3%
LIB
0.0%
MIN
0.0%
UKIP
3.7%
OTH
0.2%


Meon Valley
County/Area: Hampshire (South)
MP: George Hollingbery  (CON)
Electorate: 70,488
Turnout: 72.69%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON28,81856.24%46.29%
LIB16,69332.58%16.81%
LAB3,266 6.37%13.87%
UKIP1,490 2.91%18.90%
OTH971 1.90% 4.12%
CON Majority12,12523.66%Pred Maj 27.39%
Chance of winning
CON
92.9%
LIB
0.6%
LAB
3.2%
UKIP
3.3%
OTH
0.0%


Meriden
County/Area: Coventry and Solihull (West Midlands)
MP: Caroline Spelman  (CON)
Electorate: 83,826
Turnout: 62.23%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON26,95651.68%41.57%
LAB10,70320.52%27.92%
LIB9,27817.79% 2.52%
OTH3,847 7.38% 9.57%
UKIP1,378 2.64%18.43%
CON Majority16,25331.16%Pred Maj 13.65%
Chance of winning
CON
75.4%
LAB
20.6%
LIB
0.0%
OTH
0.1%
UKIP
3.9%


Middlesbrough
County/Area: Teeside (North)
MP: Sir Stuart Bell  (LAB)
Electorate: 65,148
Turnout: 51.35%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
LAB15,35145.89%53.71%
LIB6,66219.91% 3.02%
CON6,28318.78% 8.84%
OTH3,92311.73%14.05%
UKIP1,236 3.69%20.39%
LAB Majority8,68925.97%Pred Maj 33.32%

Result shown is original general election result. Mr Andy McDonald (Lab) held the seat in a by-election on 29 November 2012, after the death of Sir Stuart Bell in October 2012.

Chance of winning
LAB
96.8%
LIB
0.0%
CON
0.8%
OTH
0.2%
UKIP
2.2%


Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East
County/Area: Teeside (North)
MP: Tom Blenkinsop  (LAB)
Electorate: 72,664
Turnout: 63.60%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
LAB18,13839.25%46.26%
CON16,46135.62%25.03%
LIB7,34015.88% 2.41%
OTH2,394 5.18% 7.27%
UKIP1,881 4.07%19.04%
LAB Majority1,677 3.63%Pred Maj 21.23%
Chance of winning
LAB
86.3%
CON
10.8%
LIB
0.0%
OTH
0.1%
UKIP
2.8%


Milton Keynes North
County/Area: Buckinghamshire (Essex)
MP: Mark Lancaster  (CON)
Electorate: 85,841
Turnout: 62.78%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON23,41943.46%33.51%
LAB14,45826.83%34.55%
LIB11,89422.07% 5.55%
OTH2,345 4.35% 6.65%
UKIP1,772 3.29%19.75%
CON Majority8,96116.63%Pred Maj 1.04%
Chance of winning
CON
45.6%
LAB
46.9%
LIB
0.1%
OTH
0.1%
UKIP
7.3%

LAB Gain

Milton Keynes South
County/Area: Buckinghamshire (Essex)
MP: Iain Stewart  (CON)
Electorate: 90,487
Turnout: 61.15%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON23,03441.63%31.68%
LAB17,83332.23%39.39%
LIB9,78717.69% 3.07%
OTH2,605 4.71% 6.84%
UKIP2,074 3.75%19.02%
CON Majority5,201 9.40%Pred Maj 7.71%
Chance of winning
CON
31.6%
LAB
63.9%
LIB
0.0%
OTH
0.1%
UKIP
4.4%

LAB Gain

Mitcham and Morden
County/Area: Merton (South London)
MP: Siobhain McDonagh  (LAB)
Electorate: 65,939
Turnout: 66.42%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
LAB24,72256.45%62.62%
CON11,05625.24%14.75%
LIB5,20211.88% 1.20%
OTH1,960 4.48% 6.31%
UKIP857 1.96%15.13%
LAB Majority13,66631.20%Pred Maj 47.49%
Chance of winning
LAB
99.8%
CON
0.1%
LIB
0.0%
OTH
0.0%
UKIP
0.1%


Mole Valley
County/Area: Surrey (South)
MP: Sir Paul Beresford  (CON)
Electorate: 72,612
Turnout: 74.81%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON31,26357.55%47.60%
LIB15,61028.73%12.96%
LAB3,804 7.00%14.50%
UKIP2,752 5.07%21.06%
OTH895 1.65% 3.88%
CON Majority15,65328.81%Pred Maj 26.54%
Chance of winning
CON
93.4%
LIB
0.4%
LAB
2.7%
UKIP
3.5%
OTH
0.0%


Morecambe and Lunesdale
County/Area: Lancashire (Lancashire)
MP: David Morris  (CON)
Electorate: 69,965
Turnout: 62.08%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON18,03541.52%30.62%
LAB17,16939.53%46.05%
LIB5,79113.33% 1.84%
UKIP1,843 4.24%18.17%
OTH598 1.38% 3.32%
CON Majority866 1.99%Pred Maj 15.43%
Chance of winning
CON
18.0%
LAB
80.0%
LIB
0.0%
UKIP
2.0%
OTH
0.0%

LAB Gain

Morley and Outwood
County/Area: West Yorkshire (Yorkshire)
MP: Ed Balls  (LAB)
Electorate: 74,200
Turnout: 65.84%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
LAB18,36537.59%44.59%
CON17,26435.34%25.06%
LIB8,18616.76% 3.03%
MIN3,535 7.24% 7.24%
UKIP1,506 3.08%18.01%
OTH0 0.00% 2.08%
LAB Majority1,101 2.25%Pred Maj 19.53%
Chance of winning
LAB
85.2%
CON
12.1%
LIB
0.0%
MIN
0.0%
UKIP
2.7%
OTH
0.0%


New Forest East
County/Area: Hampshire (South)
MP: Julian Lewis  (CON)
Electorate: 72,858
Turnout: 68.68%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON26,44352.85%42.90%
LIB15,13630.25%14.48%
LAB4,915 9.82%17.32%
UKIP2,518 5.03%21.03%
OTH1,024 2.05% 4.28%
CON Majority11,30722.60%Pred Maj 21.87%
Chance of winning
CON
88.5%
LIB
0.9%
LAB
5.3%
UKIP
5.3%
OTH
0.0%


New Forest West
County/Area: Hampshire (South)
MP: Desmond Swayne  (CON)
Electorate: 68,332
Turnout: 69.62%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON27,98058.82%48.87%
LIB11,08423.30% 7.53%
LAB4,666 9.81%17.31%
UKIP2,783 5.85%21.85%
OTH1,059 2.23% 4.46%
CON Majority16,89635.52%Pred Maj 27.02%
Chance of winning
CON
93.6%
LIB
0.1%
LAB
3.1%
UKIP
3.2%
OTH
0.0%


Newark
County/Area: Nottinghamshire (East Midlands)
MP: Patrick Mercer  (CON)
Electorate: 71,785
Turnout: 71.36%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON27,59053.86%43.85%
LAB11,43822.33%30.11%
LIB10,24620.00% 3.30%
UKIP1,954 3.81%20.42%
OTH0 0.00% 2.31%
CON Majority16,15231.53%Pred Maj 13.74%
Chance of winning
CON
76.8%
LAB
19.8%
LIB
0.0%
UKIP
3.4%
OTH
0.0%


Newbury
County/Area: Berkshire (South)
MP: Richard Benyon  (CON)
Electorate: 78,329
Turnout: 74.80%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON33,05756.42%46.47%
LIB20,80935.52%19.74%
LAB2,505 4.28%11.77%
UKIP1,475 2.52%18.51%
OTH743 1.27% 3.50%
CON Majority12,24820.90%Pred Maj 26.73%
Chance of winning
CON
92.6%
LIB
1.7%
LAB
2.6%
UKIP
3.1%
OTH
0.0%


Newcastle upon Tyne Central
County/Area: Newcastle area (North)
MP: Chi Onwurah  (LAB)
Electorate: 60,507
Turnout: 56.45%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
LAB15,69445.95%53.88%
LIB8,22824.09% 7.12%
CON6,61119.35% 9.11%
OTH2,870 8.40%10.76%
UKIP754 2.21%19.13%
LAB Majority7,46621.86%Pred Maj 34.75%
Chance of winning
LAB
97.2%
LIB
0.0%
CON
0.8%
OTH
0.2%
UKIP
1.8%


Newcastle upon Tyne East
County/Area: Newcastle area (North)
MP: Nick Brown  (LAB)
Electorate: 64,487
Turnout: 58.68%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
LAB17,04345.04%52.46%
LIB12,59033.27%16.30%
CON6,06816.04% 7.54%
OTH2,139 5.65% 7.86%
UKIP0 0.00%15.83%
LAB Majority4,45311.77%Pred Maj 36.16%
Chance of winning
LAB
97.9%
LIB
0.4%
CON
0.4%
OTH
0.0%
UKIP
1.3%


Newcastle upon Tyne North
County/Area: Newcastle area (North)
MP: Catherine McKinnell  (LAB)
Electorate: 67,110
Turnout: 65.48%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
LAB17,95040.85%48.59%
LIB14,53633.08%16.11%
CON7,96618.13% 8.53%
OTH2,209 5.03% 7.33%
UKIP1,285 2.92%19.45%
LAB Majority3,414 7.77%Pred Maj 29.14%
Chance of winning
LAB
94.3%
LIB
0.7%
CON
1.1%
OTH
0.2%
UKIP
3.7%


Newcastle-under-Lyme
County/Area: Staffordshire (Severn)
MP: Paul Farrelly  (LAB)
Electorate: 69,433
Turnout: 62.21%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
LAB16,39337.95%45.81%
CON14,84134.36%24.25%
LIB8,46619.60% 2.78%
UKIP3,491 8.08%24.83%
OTH0 0.00% 2.33%
LAB Majority1,552 3.59%Pred Maj 20.97%
Chance of winning
LAB
83.5%
CON
10.6%
LIB
0.0%
UKIP
5.9%
OTH
0.0%


Newton Abbot
County/Area: Devon (South West)
MP: Anne-Marie Morris  (CON)
Electorate: 69,343
Turnout: 69.63%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON20,77443.03%33.05%
LIB20,25141.94%26.59%
LAB3,387 7.01%14.40%
UKIP3,088 6.40%22.15%
OTH783 1.62% 3.82%
CON Majority523 1.08%Pred Maj 6.46%
Chance of winning
CON
59.1%
LIB
18.1%
LAB
7.9%
UKIP
14.8%
OTH
0.1%


Norfolk Mid
County/Area: Norfolk (East Anglia)
MP: George Freeman  (CON)
Electorate: 74,260
Turnout: 68.36%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON25,12349.49%39.54%
LIB11,26722.19% 5.67%
LAB8,85717.45%25.16%
UKIP2,800 5.52%21.98%
OTH2,718 5.35% 7.65%
CON Majority13,85627.29%Pred Maj 14.38%
Chance of winning
CON
73.2%
LIB
0.1%
LAB
18.2%
UKIP
8.4%
OTH
0.1%


Norfolk North
County/Area: Norfolk (East Anglia)
MP: Norman Lamb  (LIB)
Electorate: 67,841
Turnout: 73.20%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
LIB27,55455.48%38.96%
CON15,92832.07%22.12%
LAB2,896 5.83%13.55%
UKIP2,680 5.40%21.86%
OTH603 1.21% 3.51%
LIB Majority11,62623.41%Pred Maj 16.84%
Chance of winning
LIB
68.5%
CON
10.0%
LAB
8.1%
UKIP
13.3%
OTH
0.1%


Norfolk North West
County/Area: Norfolk (East Anglia)
MP: Henry Bellingham  (CON)
Electorate: 73,207
Turnout: 65.29%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON25,91654.22%44.27%
LIB11,10623.23% 6.71%
LAB6,35313.29%21.01%
OTH2,584 5.41% 7.70%
UKIP1,841 3.85%20.31%
CON Majority14,81030.98%Pred Maj 23.26%
Chance of winning
CON
87.9%
LIB
0.1%
LAB
7.6%
OTH
0.0%
UKIP
4.4%


Norfolk South
County/Area: Norfolk (East Anglia)
MP: Richard Bacon  (CON)
Electorate: 76,165
Turnout: 72.20%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON27,13349.34%39.39%
LIB16,19329.45%12.92%
LAB7,25213.19%20.90%
UKIP2,329 4.24%20.70%
OTH2,086 3.79% 6.09%
CON Majority10,94019.89%Pred Maj 18.49%
Chance of winning
CON
78.3%
LIB
1.1%
LAB
12.3%
UKIP
8.2%
OTH
0.1%


Norfolk South West
County/Area: Norfolk (East Anglia)
MP: Elizabeth Truss  (CON)
Electorate: 74,298
Turnout: 66.15%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON23,75348.33%38.38%
LIB10,61321.59% 5.07%
LAB9,11918.55%26.27%
UKIP3,061 6.23%22.69%
OTH2,604 5.30% 7.59%
CON Majority13,14026.73%Pred Maj 12.11%
Chance of winning
CON
69.3%
LIB
0.1%
LAB
21.0%
UKIP
9.5%
OTH
0.1%


Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford
County/Area: West Yorkshire (Yorkshire)
MP: Yvette Cooper  (LAB)
Electorate: 82,239
Turnout: 56.23%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
LAB22,29348.21%55.13%
CON11,31424.47%14.19%
LIB7,58516.40% 2.96%
OTH5,04710.92%12.97%
UKIP0 0.00%14.75%
LAB Majority10,97923.74%Pred Maj 40.37%
Chance of winning
LAB
98.8%
CON
0.9%
LIB
0.0%
OTH
0.0%
UKIP
0.3%


Northampton North
County/Area: Northamptonshire (East Anglia)
MP: Michael Ellis  (CON)
Electorate: 64,230
Turnout: 62.70%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON13,73534.11%24.16%
LAB11,79929.30%37.01%
LIB11,25027.94%11.41%
OTH2,249 5.58% 7.88%
UKIP1,238 3.07%19.54%
CON Majority1,936 4.81%Pred Maj 12.86%
Chance of winning
CON
18.7%
LAB
69.8%
LIB
0.9%
OTH
0.4%
UKIP
10.2%

LAB Gain

Northampton South
County/Area: Northamptonshire (East Anglia)
MP: Brian Binley  (CON)
Electorate: 66,923
Turnout: 58.24%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON15,91740.84%30.89%
LAB9,91325.43%33.01%
LIB7,57919.44% 3.38%
OTH3,672 9.42%11.68%
UKIP1,897 4.87%21.04%
CON Majority6,00415.40%Pred Maj 2.13%
Chance of winning
CON
39.7%
LAB
48.1%
LIB
0.1%
OTH
0.5%
UKIP
11.6%

LAB Gain

Northamptonshire South
County/Area: Northamptonshire (East Anglia)
MP: Andrea Leadsom  (CON)
Electorate: 82,032
Turnout: 73.01%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON33,08155.24%45.29%
LIB12,60321.04% 4.52%
LAB10,38017.33%25.05%
UKIP2,406 4.02%20.48%
OTH1,420 2.37% 4.67%
CON Majority20,47834.19%Pred Maj 20.24%
Chance of winning
CON
85.9%
LIB
0.1%
LAB
10.3%
UKIP
3.7%
OTH
0.0%


Norwich North
County/Area: Norfolk (East Anglia)
MP: Chloe Smith  (CON)
Electorate: 65,258
Turnout: 65.24%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON17,28040.59%30.64%
LAB13,37931.43%38.73%
LIB7,78318.28% 3.18%
OTH2,253 5.29% 7.46%
UKIP1,878 4.41%19.99%
CON Majority3,901 9.16%Pred Maj 8.09%
Chance of winning
CON
30.5%
LAB
63.9%
LIB
0.1%
OTH
0.1%
UKIP
5.4%

LAB Gain

Norwich South
County/Area: Norfolk (East Anglia)
MP: Simon Wright  (LIB)
Electorate: 73,649
Turnout: 64.56%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
LIB13,96029.36%12.83%
LAB13,65028.71%36.42%
CON10,90222.93%12.98%
MIN7,09514.92%14.92%
UKIP1,145 2.41%18.87%
OTH799 1.68% 3.97%
LIB Majority310 0.65%Pred Maj 17.55%
Chance of winning
LIB
2.5%
LAB
77.9%
CON
7.8%
MIN
0.0%
UKIP
11.6%
OTH
0.2%

LAB Gain

Nottingham East
County/Area: Nottinghamshire (East Midlands)
MP: Christopher Leslie  (LAB)
Electorate: 58,707
Turnout: 56.40%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
LAB15,02245.37%53.15%
LIB8,05324.32% 7.62%
CON7,84623.70%13.69%
UKIP1,138 3.44%20.04%
OTH1,053 3.18% 5.49%
LAB Majority6,96921.05%Pred Maj 33.11%
Chance of winning
LAB
96.6%
LIB
0.0%
CON
1.1%
UKIP
2.3%
OTH
0.0%


Nottingham North
County/Area: Nottinghamshire (East Midlands)
MP: Graham Allen  (LAB)
Electorate: 63,240
Turnout: 54.21%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
LAB16,64648.55%55.62%
CON8,50824.82%14.81%
LIB5,84917.06% 2.82%
OTH1,944 5.67% 7.77%
UKIP1,338 3.90%18.98%
LAB Majority8,13823.74%Pred Maj 36.64%
Chance of winning
LAB
98.5%
CON
0.8%
LIB
0.0%
OTH
0.0%
UKIP
0.7%


Nottingham South
County/Area: Nottinghamshire (East Midlands)
MP: Lillian Greenwood  (LAB)
Electorate: 67,441
Turnout: 60.48%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
LAB15,20937.29%45.07%
CON13,43732.94%22.94%
LIB9,40623.06% 6.36%
OTH1,770 4.34% 6.65%
UKIP967 2.37%18.98%
LAB Majority1,772 4.34%Pred Maj 22.13%
Chance of winning
LAB
85.7%
CON
10.4%
LIB
0.1%
OTH
0.2%
UKIP
3.6%


Nuneaton
County/Area: Warwickshire (East Midlands)
MP: Marcus Jones  (CON)
Electorate: 67,837
Turnout: 65.81%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON18,53641.52%31.51%
LAB16,46736.88%43.53%
LIB6,84615.33% 2.53%
OTH2,797 6.26% 8.24%
UKIP0 0.00%14.18%
CON Majority2,069 4.63%Pred Maj 12.02%
Chance of winning
CON
22.8%
LAB
75.5%
LIB
0.0%
OTH
0.1%
UKIP
1.6%

LAB Gain

Old Bexley and Sidcup
County/Area: Bexley (South London)
MP: James Brokenshire  (CON)
Electorate: 65,665
Turnout: 69.28%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON24,62554.13%43.63%
LAB8,76819.27%26.36%
LIB6,99615.38% 1.55%
OTH3,571 7.85% 9.96%
UKIP1,532 3.37%18.50%
CON Majority15,85734.86%Pred Maj 17.27%
Chance of winning
CON
81.0%
LAB
15.3%
LIB
0.0%
OTH
0.1%
UKIP
3.6%


Oldham East and Saddleworth
County/Area: Eastern Manchester (Greater Manchester)
MP: Phil Woolas  (LAB)
Electorate: 72,765
Turnout: 61.18%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
LAB14,18631.86%40.07%
LIB14,08331.63%14.39%
CON11,77326.44%15.54%
OTH2,758 6.19% 8.63%
UKIP1,720 3.86%21.36%
LAB Majority103 0.23%Pred Maj 18.70%

Result shown is original general election result. Ms Debbie Abrahams (Lab) held the seat in a by-election on 13 January 2011, after Mr Phil Woolas was stripped of the seat by an election court.

Chance of winning
LAB
78.0%
LIB
2.1%
CON
8.1%
OTH
0.2%
UKIP
11.6%


Oldham West and Royton
County/Area: Eastern Manchester (Greater Manchester)
MP: Michael Meacher  (LAB)
Electorate: 72,651
Turnout: 59.06%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
LAB19,50345.45%53.42%
CON10,15123.66%12.76%
LIB8,19319.09% 2.63%
OTH3,676 8.57%10.94%
UKIP1,387 3.23%20.25%
LAB Majority9,35221.79%Pred Maj 33.18%
Chance of winning
LAB
96.9%
CON
1.1%
LIB
0.0%
OTH
0.2%
UKIP
1.8%


Orpington
County/Area: Bromley (South London)
MP: Joseph Johnson  (CON)
Electorate: 67,732
Turnout: 72.21%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON29,20059.70%49.20%
LIB12,00024.53% 6.55%
LAB4,400 9.00%17.30%
OTH1,951 3.99% 6.46%
UKIP1,360 2.78%20.49%
CON Majority17,20035.17%Pred Maj 28.71%
Chance of winning
CON
92.3%
LIB
0.1%
LAB
4.1%
OTH
0.0%
UKIP
3.5%


Oxford East
County/Area: Oxfordshire (West)
MP: Andrew Smith  (LAB)
Electorate: 81,886
Turnout: 63.08%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
LAB21,93842.47%49.69%
LIB17,35733.60%18.25%
CON9,72718.83% 9.44%
OTH1,427 2.76% 4.91%
UKIP1,202 2.33%17.72%
LAB Majority4,581 8.87%Pred Maj 31.44%
Chance of winning
LAB
94.6%
LIB
1.0%
CON
1.1%
OTH
0.1%
UKIP
3.2%


Oxford West and Abingdon
County/Area: Oxfordshire (West)
MP: Nicola Blackwood  (CON)
Electorate: 86,458
Turnout: 65.33%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON23,90642.33%32.35%
LIB23,73042.01%26.66%
LAB5,99910.62%18.00%
UKIP1,518 2.69%18.44%
OTH1,327 2.35% 4.54%
CON Majority176 0.31%Pred Maj 5.69%
Chance of winning
CON
56.0%
LIB
20.0%
LAB
13.4%
UKIP
10.5%
OTH
0.1%


Pendle
County/Area: Lancashire (Lancashire)
MP: Andrew Stephenson  (CON)
Electorate: 66,417
Turnout: 67.82%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON17,51238.88%27.98%
LAB13,92730.92%39.12%
LIB9,09520.19% 2.95%
OTH3,035 6.74% 9.18%
UKIP1,476 3.28%20.78%
CON Majority3,585 7.96%Pred Maj 11.14%
Chance of winning
CON
26.1%
LAB
65.8%
LIB
0.1%
OTH
0.3%
UKIP
7.7%

LAB Gain

Penistone and Stocksbridge
County/Area: South Yorkshire (Humberside)
MP: Angela Smith  (LAB)
Electorate: 68,501
Turnout: 67.91%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
LAB17,56537.76%45.53%
CON14,51631.21%20.93%
LIB9,80021.07% 4.68%
OTH2,699 5.80% 8.11%
UKIP1,936 4.16%20.75%
LAB Majority3,049 6.55%Pred Maj 24.61%
Chance of winning
LAB
87.5%
CON
8.2%
LIB
0.0%
OTH
0.2%
UKIP
4.1%


Penrith and The Border
County/Area: Cumbria (North)
MP: Rory Stewart  (CON)
Electorate: 64,548
Turnout: 69.85%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON24,07153.39%42.80%
LIB12,83028.46%11.49%
LAB5,83412.94%20.97%
UKIP1,259 2.79%19.93%
OTH1,093 2.42% 4.81%
CON Majority11,24124.93%Pred Maj 21.83%
Chance of winning
CON
82.0%
LIB
0.7%
LAB
10.6%
UKIP
6.7%
OTH
0.0%


Peterborough
County/Area: Cambridgeshire (East Anglia)
MP: Stewart Jackson  (CON)
Electorate: 70,316
Turnout: 63.89%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON18,13340.36%30.41%
LAB13,27229.54%37.17%
LIB8,81619.62% 3.41%
UKIP3,007 6.69%22.96%
OTH1,699 3.78% 6.05%
CON Majority4,86110.82%Pred Maj 6.75%
Chance of winning
CON
31.4%
LAB
57.6%
LIB
0.1%
UKIP
10.8%
OTH
0.1%

LAB Gain

Plymouth Moor View
County/Area: Devon (South West)
MP: Alison Seabeck  (LAB)
Electorate: 67,261
Turnout: 61.74%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
LAB15,43337.16%43.85%
CON13,84533.34%23.37%
LIB7,01616.90% 3.92%
UKIP3,188 7.68%21.95%
OTH2,044 4.92% 6.91%
LAB Majority1,588 3.82%Pred Maj 20.48%
Chance of winning
LAB
83.1%
CON
10.7%
LIB
0.0%
UKIP
6.0%
OTH
0.2%


Plymouth Sutton and Devonport
County/Area: Devon (South West)
MP: Oliver Colville  (CON)
Electorate: 71,035
Turnout: 61.79%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON15,05034.29%24.31%
LAB13,90131.67%39.05%
LIB10,82924.67% 9.32%
UKIP2,854 6.50%22.25%
OTH1,260 2.87% 5.07%
CON Majority1,149 2.62%Pred Maj 14.74%
Chance of winning
CON
16.7%
LAB
72.3%
LIB
0.2%
UKIP
10.6%
OTH
0.2%

LAB Gain

Poole
County/Area: Dorset (South West)
MP: Robert Syms  (CON)
Electorate: 64,661
Turnout: 73.36%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON22,53247.50%37.53%
LIB14,99131.60%16.25%
LAB6,04112.74%20.12%
UKIP2,507 5.29%21.04%
OTH1,365 2.88% 5.07%
CON Majority7,54115.90%Pred Maj 16.49%
Chance of winning
CON
74.7%
LIB
2.2%
LAB
13.1%
UKIP
9.9%
OTH
0.1%


Poplar and Limehouse
County/Area: Tower Hamlets (North London)
MP: Jim Fitzpatrick  (LAB)
Electorate: 74,956
Turnout: 62.30%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
LAB18,67940.00%45.98%
CON12,64927.09%16.59%
MIN8,16017.47%17.47%
LIB5,20911.15% 1.12%
OTH1,438 3.08% 4.86%
UKIP565 1.21%13.98%
LAB Majority6,03012.91%Pred Maj 28.51%
Chance of winning
LAB
96.4%
CON
2.8%
MIN
0.0%
LIB
0.0%
OTH
0.0%
UKIP
0.8%


Portsmouth North
County/Area: Hampshire (South)
MP: Penny Mordaunt  (CON)
Electorate: 70,329
Turnout: 62.73%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON19,53344.27%34.33%
LAB12,24427.75%35.25%
LIB8,87420.11% 4.34%
UKIP1,812 4.11%20.10%
OTH1,655 3.75% 5.98%
CON Majority7,28916.52%Pred Maj 0.92%
Chance of winning
CON
46.4%
LAB
46.7%
LIB
0.1%
UKIP
6.7%
OTH
0.1%

LAB Gain

Portsmouth South
County/Area: Hampshire (South)
MP: Mike Hancock  (LIB)
Electorate: 70,242
Turnout: 58.75%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
LIB18,92145.85%30.08%
CON13,72133.25%23.30%
LAB5,64013.67%21.17%
OTH2,106 5.10% 7.33%
UKIP876 2.12%18.12%
LIB Majority5,20012.60%Pred Maj 6.78%
Chance of winning
LIB
42.6%
CON
24.0%
LAB
20.6%
OTH
0.2%
UKIP
12.6%


Preston
County/Area: Lancashire (Lancashire)
MP: Mark Hendrick  (LAB)
Electorate: 62,460
Turnout: 52.04%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
LAB15,66848.20%56.40%
LIB7,93524.41% 7.17%
CON7,06021.72%10.82%
UKIP1,462 4.50%22.00%
OTH380 1.17% 3.61%
LAB Majority7,73323.79%Pred Maj 34.41%
Chance of winning
LAB
97.7%
LIB
0.0%
CON
0.5%
UKIP
1.8%
OTH
0.0%


Pudsey
County/Area: West Yorkshire (Yorkshire)
MP: Stuart Andrew  (CON)
Electorate: 69,257
Turnout: 70.87%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON18,87438.45%28.17%
LAB17,21535.07%42.85%
LIB10,22420.83% 4.44%
OTH1,549 3.16% 5.47%
UKIP1,221 2.49%19.07%
CON Majority1,659 3.38%Pred Maj 14.67%
Chance of winning
CON
19.4%
LAB
76.8%
LIB
0.0%
OTH
0.1%
UKIP
3.7%

LAB Gain

Putney
County/Area: Wandsworth (South London)
MP: Justine Greening  (CON)
Electorate: 63,370
Turnout: 64.36%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON21,22352.04%41.54%
LAB11,17027.39%34.89%
LIB6,90716.94% 1.71%
OTH1,050 2.57% 4.80%
UKIP435 1.07%17.07%
CON Majority10,05324.65%Pred Maj 6.65%
Chance of winning
CON
66.1%
LAB
31.5%
LIB
0.0%
OTH
0.0%
UKIP
2.4%