Constituency List: Northern Ireland



Antrim East

Prediction: DUP hold

MP at 2019:Sammy Wilson  (DUP)
County/Area:Antrim (Northern Ireland)
Electorate:64,830
Turnout: 57.5%

Party2019 Votes2019 SharePredicted Votes
DUP16,871 45.3% 45.4%
Alliance10,165 27.3% 27.3%
UUP5,475 14.7% 14.8%
SF2,120 5.7% 5.8%
OTH1,043 2.8% 2.6%
SDLP902 2.4% 2.5%
Green685 1.8% 1.5%
DUP Majority6,706 18.0% 18.1%
Pred Maj
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Chance of winning
DUP
88%
Alliance
11%
UUP
1%
SF
0%
OTH
0%
SDLP
0%
Green
0%

Antrim North

Prediction: DUP hold

MP at 2019:Ian Paisley  (DUP)
County/Area:Antrim (Northern Ireland)
Electorate:77,134
Turnout: 57.1%

Party2019 Votes2019 SharePredicted Votes
DUP20,860 47.4% 47.4%
UUP8,139 18.5% 18.5%
Alliance6,231 14.1% 14.1%
SF5,632 12.8% 12.8%
SDLP2,943 6.7% 6.7%
OTH246 0.6% 0.5%
DUP Majority12,721 28.9% 28.9%
Pred Maj
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Chance of winning
DUP
97%
UUP
2%
Alliance
0%
SF
0%
SDLP
0%
OTH
0%

Antrim South

Prediction: DUP hold

MP at 2019:Paul Girvan  (DUP)
County/Area:Antrim (Northern Ireland)
Electorate:71,711
Turnout: 59.9%

Party2019 Votes2019 SharePredicted Votes
DUP15,149 35.3% 35.3%
UUP12,460 29.0% 29.0%
Alliance8,190 19.1% 19.1%
SF4,887 11.4% 11.4%
SDLP2,288 5.3% 5.3%
DUP Majority2,689 6.3% 6.3%
Pred Maj
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Chance of winning
DUP
65%
UUP
28%
Alliance
6%
SF
1%
SDLP
0%

Belfast East

Prediction: DUP hold

MP at 2019:Gavin Robinson  (DUP)
County/Area:Antrim (Northern Ireland)
Electorate:66,245
Turnout: 64.1%

Party2019 Votes2019 SharePredicted Votes
DUP20,874 49.2% 49.2%
Alliance19,055 44.9% 44.9%
UUP2,516 5.9% 5.9%
DUP Majority1,819 4.3% 4.3%
Pred Maj
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Chance of winning
DUP
62%
Alliance
38%
UUP
0%

Belfast North

Prediction: SF hold

MP at 2019:John Finucane  (SF)
County/Area:Antrim (Northern Ireland)
Electorate:72,225
Turnout: 67.9%

Party2019 Votes2019 SharePredicted Votes
SF23,078 47.1% 47.1%
DUP21,135 43.1% 43.1%
Alliance4,824 9.8% 9.8%
SF Majority1,943 4.0% 4.0%
Pred Maj
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Chance of winning
SF
58%
DUP
42%
Alliance
0%

Belfast South

Prediction: SDLP hold

MP at 2019:Claire Hanna  (SDLP)
County/Area:Antrim (Northern Ireland)
Electorate:69,984
Turnout: 67.7%

Party2019 Votes2019 SharePredicted Votes
SDLP27,079 57.2% 57.2%
DUP11,678 24.7% 24.7%
Alliance6,786 14.3% 14.3%
UUP1,259 2.7% 2.7%
OTH550 1.2% 1.1%
SF0 0.0% 0.0%
SDLP Majority15,401 32.5% 32.5%
Pred Maj
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Chance of winning
SDLP
98%
DUP
2%
Alliance
0%
UUP
0%
OTH
0%
SF
0%

Belfast West

Prediction: SF hold

MP at 2019:Paul Maskey  (SF)
County/Area:Antrim (Northern Ireland)
Electorate:65,644
Turnout: 59.1%

Party2019 Votes2019 SharePredicted Votes
SF20,866 53.8% 53.9%
MIN6,194 16.0% 16.0%
DUP5,220 13.5% 13.5%
SDLP2,985 7.7% 7.8%
Alliance1,882 4.9% 4.9%
OTH1,635 4.2% 3.9%
UUP0 0.0% 0.1%
SF Majority14,672 37.8% 37.9%
Pred Maj
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Chance of winning
SF
99%
MIN
0%
DUP
1%
SDLP
0%
Alliance
0%
OTH
0%
UUP
0%

Down North

Prediction: Alliance hold

MP at 2019:Stephen Farry  (Alliance)
County/Area:Down (Northern Ireland)
Electorate:67,099
Turnout: 60.6%

Party2019 Votes2019 SharePredicted Votes
Alliance18,358 45.2% 45.2%
DUP15,390 37.9% 37.9%
UUP4,936 12.1% 12.2%
OTH1,959 4.8% 4.5%
SDLP0 0.0% 0.1%
SF0 0.0% 0.1%
Alliance Majority2,968 7.3% 7.2%
Pred Maj
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Chance of winning
Alliance
69%
DUP
31%
UUP
0%
OTH
0%
SDLP
0%
SF
0%

Down South

Prediction: SF hold

MP at 2019:Chris Hazzard  (SF)
County/Area:Down (Northern Ireland)
Electorate:79,175
Turnout: 62.9%

Party2019 Votes2019 SharePredicted Votes
SF16,137 32.4% 32.5%
SDLP14,517 29.2% 29.2%
DUP7,619 15.3% 15.4%
Alliance6,916 13.9% 13.9%
UUP3,307 6.6% 6.7%
OTH1,266 2.5% 2.4%
SF Majority1,620 3.3% 3.3%
Pred Maj
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Chance of winning
SF
55%
SDLP
38%
DUP
5%
Alliance
3%
UUP
0%
OTH
0%

Fermanagh and South Tyrone

Prediction: SF hold

MP at 2019:Michelle Gildernew  (SF)
County/Area:Fermanagh (Northern Ireland)
Electorate:72,848
Turnout: 69.7%

Party2019 Votes2019 SharePredicted Votes
SF21,986 43.3% 43.3%
UUP21,929 43.2% 43.2%
SDLP3,446 6.8% 6.8%
Alliance2,650 5.2% 5.2%
OTH751 1.5% 1.4%
DUP0 0.0% 0.0%
SF Majority57 0.1% 0.1%
Pred Maj
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Chance of winning
SF
49%
UUP
51%
SDLP
0%
Alliance
0%
OTH
0%
DUP
0%

Foyle

Prediction: SDLP hold

MP at 2019:Colum Eastwood  (SDLP)
County/Area:Londonderry (Northern Ireland)
Electorate:74,346
Turnout: 63.4%

Party2019 Votes2019 SharePredicted Votes
SDLP26,881 57.0% 57.1%
SF9,771 20.7% 20.8%
DUP4,773 10.1% 10.2%
MIN2,032 4.3% 4.3%
OTH1,332 2.8% 2.6%
Alliance1,267 2.7% 2.7%
UUP1,088 2.3% 2.4%
SDLP Majority17,110 36.3% 36.3%
Pred Maj
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Chance of winning
SDLP
99%
SF
1%
DUP
0%
MIN
0%
OTH
0%
Alliance
0%
UUP
0%

Lagan Valley

Prediction: DUP hold

MP at 2019:Jeffrey Donaldson  (DUP)
County/Area:Antrim (Northern Ireland)
Electorate:75,735
Turnout: 60.0%

Party2019 Votes2019 SharePredicted Votes
DUP19,586 43.1% 43.2%
Alliance13,087 28.8% 28.8%
UUP8,606 19.0% 19.0%
SDLP1,758 3.9% 3.9%
OTH1,270 2.8% 2.6%
SF1,098 2.4% 2.5%
DUP Majority6,499 14.3% 14.3%
Pred Maj
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Chance of winning
DUP
84%
Alliance
14%
UUP
2%
SDLP
0%
OTH
0%
SF
0%

Londonderry East

Prediction: DUP hold

MP at 2019:Gregory Campbell  (DUP)
County/Area:Londonderry (Northern Ireland)
Electorate:69,246
Turnout: 56.8%

Party2019 Votes2019 SharePredicted Votes
DUP15,765 40.1% 40.2%
SDLP6,158 15.7% 15.7%
SF6,128 15.6% 15.7%
Alliance5,921 15.1% 15.1%
UUP3,599 9.2% 9.2%
OTH1,731 4.4% 4.1%
DUP Majority9,607 24.4% 24.5%
Pred Maj
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Chance of winning
DUP
92%
SDLP
3%
SF
2%
Alliance
2%
UUP
0%
OTH
0%

Newry and Armagh

Prediction: SF hold

MP at 2019:Mickey Brady  (SF)
County/Area:Armagh (Northern Ireland)
Electorate:81,226
Turnout: 62.5%

Party2019 Votes2019 SharePredicted Votes
SF20,287 40.0% 40.0%
DUP11,000 21.7% 21.7%
SDLP9,449 18.6% 18.7%
Alliance4,211 8.3% 8.3%
UUP4,204 8.3% 8.3%
OTH1,628 3.2% 3.0%
SF Majority9,287 18.3% 18.3%
Pred Maj
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Chance of winning
SF
85%
DUP
11%
SDLP
4%
Alliance
0%
UUP
0%
OTH
0%

Strangford

Prediction: DUP hold

MP at 2019:Jim Shannon  (DUP)
County/Area:Down (Northern Ireland)
Electorate:66,928
Turnout: 56.0%

Party2019 Votes2019 SharePredicted Votes
DUP17,705 47.2% 47.4%
Alliance10,634 28.4% 28.4%
UUP4,023 10.7% 10.9%
SDLP1,994 5.3% 5.5%
OTH1,784 4.8% 4.4%
Green790 2.1% 1.7%
SF555 1.5% 1.6%
DUP Majority7,071 18.9% 19.0%
Pred Maj
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Chance of winning
DUP
90%
Alliance
10%
UUP
0%
SDLP
0%
OTH
0%
Green
0%
SF
0%

Tyrone West

Prediction: SF hold

MP at 2019:Órfhlaith Begley  (SF)
County/Area:Tyrone (Northern Ireland)
Electorate:66,259
Turnout: 62.2%

Party2019 Votes2019 SharePredicted Votes
SF16,544 40.2% 40.3%
DUP9,066 22.0% 22.1%
SDLP7,330 17.8% 17.9%
Alliance3,979 9.7% 9.7%
UUP2,774 6.7% 6.8%
OTH972 2.4% 2.2%
Green521 1.3% 1.0%
SF Majority7,478 18.2% 18.1%
Pred Maj
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Chance of winning
SF
85%
DUP
10%
SDLP
4%
Alliance
0%
UUP
0%
OTH
0%
Green
0%

Ulster Mid

Prediction: SF hold

MP at 2019:Francie Molloy  (SF)
County/Area:Tyrone (Northern Ireland)
Electorate:70,449
Turnout: 63.3%

Party2019 Votes2019 SharePredicted Votes
SF20,473 45.9% 45.9%
DUP10,936 24.5% 24.5%
SDLP6,384 14.3% 14.3%
Alliance3,526 7.9% 7.9%
UUP2,611 5.9% 5.9%
OTH690 1.5% 1.4%
SF Majority9,537 21.4% 21.4%
Pred Maj
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Chance of winning
SF
91%
DUP
9%
SDLP
1%
Alliance
0%
UUP
0%
OTH
0%

Upper Bann

Prediction: DUP hold

MP at 2019:Carla Lockhart  (DUP)
County/Area:Armagh (Northern Ireland)
Electorate:82,887
Turnout: 60.4%

Party2019 Votes2019 SharePredicted Votes
DUP20,501 41.0% 41.0%
SF12,291 24.6% 24.6%
Alliance6,433 12.9% 12.9%
UUP6,197 12.4% 12.4%
SDLP4,623 9.2% 9.2%
DUP Majority8,210 16.4% 16.4%
Pred Maj
Seat details with ward map, results and predictions. Top
Chance of winning
DUP
87%
SF
11%
Alliance
1%
UUP
1%
SDLP
0%