Constituency List: England R-S



Rayleigh and Wickford
County/Area: Essex (Essex)
MP: Mark Francois  (CON)
Electorate: 75,905
Turnout: 68.96%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON30,25757.81%58.42%
LIB7,91915.13% 5.07%
LAB7,57714.48%22.39%
OTH6,59012.59%14.12%
CON Majority22,33842.68%Pred Maj 36.04%
Chance of winning
CON
97.2%
LIB
0.0%
LAB
2.7%
OTH
0.1%


Reading East
County/Area: Berkshire (South)
MP: Rob Wilson  (CON)
Electorate: 74,922
Turnout: 66.72%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON21,26942.55%43.33%
LIB13,66427.34%14.65%
LAB12,72925.47%35.45%
OTH2,323 4.65% 6.58%
CON Majority7,60515.21%Pred Maj 7.88%
Chance of winning
CON
67.6%
LIB
0.8%
LAB
31.3%
OTH
0.3%


Reading West
County/Area: Berkshire (South)
MP: Alok Sharma  (CON)
Electorate: 72,118
Turnout: 65.91%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON20,52343.18%43.96%
LAB14,51930.55%40.53%
LIB9,54620.08% 7.40%
OTH2,942 6.19% 8.12%
CON Majority6,00412.63%Pred Maj 3.43%
Chance of winning
CON
56.8%
LAB
42.9%
LIB
0.0%
OTH
0.3%


Redcar
County/Area: Teeside (North)
MP: Ian Swales  (LIB)
Electorate: 67,125
Turnout: 62.51%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
LIB18,95545.17%31.52%
LAB13,74132.75%43.48%
CON5,79013.80%14.64%
OTH3,477 8.29%10.36%
LIB Majority5,21412.43%Pred Maj 11.96%
Chance of winning
LIB
18.3%
LAB
75.4%
CON
5.0%
OTH
1.3%

LAB Gain

Redditch
County/Area: Hereford and Worcestershire (Severn)
MP: Karen Lumley  (CON)
Electorate: 68,550
Turnout: 64.21%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON19,13843.48%44.22%
LAB13,31730.25%39.82%
LIB7,75017.61% 5.45%
OTH3,813 8.66%10.51%
CON Majority5,82113.22%Pred Maj 4.41%
Chance of winning
CON
57.9%
LAB
41.7%
LIB
0.0%
OTH
0.4%


Reigate
County/Area: Surrey (South)
MP: Crispin Blunt  (CON)
Electorate: 71,604
Turnout: 69.80%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON26,68853.40%54.18%
LIB13,09726.21%13.52%
LAB5,67211.35%21.33%
OTH4,521 9.05%10.97%
CON Majority13,59127.19%Pred Maj 32.85%
Chance of winning
CON
95.8%
LIB
0.2%
LAB
3.9%
OTH
0.1%


Ribble South
County/Area: Lancashire (Lancashire)
MP: Lorraine Fullbrook  (CON)
Electorate: 75,822
Turnout: 67.87%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON23,39645.47%46.07%
LAB17,84234.67%42.38%
LIB7,27114.13% 4.33%
OTH2,949 5.73% 7.22%
CON Majority5,55410.79%Pred Maj 3.69%
Chance of winning
CON
56.3%
LAB
43.6%
LIB
0.0%
OTH
0.1%


Ribble Valley
County/Area: Lancashire (Lancashire)
MP: Nigel Evans  (CON)
Electorate: 78,068
Turnout: 66.98%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON26,29850.30%51.15%
LAB11,52922.05%32.96%
LIB10,73220.53% 6.66%
OTH3,728 7.13% 9.24%
CON Majority14,76928.25%Pred Maj 18.19%
Chance of winning
CON
83.8%
LAB
15.9%
LIB
0.1%
OTH
0.2%


Richmond
County/Area: North Yorkshire (Yorkshire)
MP: William Hague  (CON)
Electorate: 79,478
Turnout: 67.20%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON33,54162.80%63.57%
LIB10,20519.11% 6.51%
LAB8,15015.26%25.17%
OTH1,516 2.84% 4.75%
CON Majority23,33643.69%Pred Maj 38.40%
Chance of winning
CON
98.0%
LIB
0.0%
LAB
2.0%
OTH
0.0%


Richmond Park
County/Area: Richmond Upon Thames (South London)
MP: Zac Goldsmith  (CON)
Electorate: 77,060
Turnout: 76.91%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON29,46149.71%50.60%
LIB25,37042.81%28.34%
LAB2,979 5.03%16.41%
OTH1,458 2.46% 4.66%
CON Majority4,091 6.90%Pred Maj 22.26%
Chance of winning
CON
89.8%
LIB
6.0%
LAB
3.9%
OTH
0.3%


Rochdale
County/Area: Eastern Manchester (Greater Manchester)
MP: Simon Danczuk  (LAB)
Electorate: 78,952
Turnout: 58.15%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
LAB16,69936.38%47.29%
LIB15,81034.44%20.57%
CON8,30518.09%18.94%
OTH5,09311.09%13.20%
LAB Majority889 1.94%Pred Maj 26.71%
Chance of winning
LAB
88.3%
LIB
3.1%
CON
7.2%
OTH
1.4%


Rochester and Strood
County/Area: Kent (South East)
MP: Mark Reckless  (CON)
Electorate: 73,882
Turnout: 64.93%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON23,60449.20%49.84%
LAB13,65128.46%36.57%
LIB7,80016.26% 5.94%
OTH2,916 6.08% 7.65%
CON Majority9,95320.75%Pred Maj 13.26%
Chance of winning
CON
78.7%
LAB
21.2%
LIB
0.0%
OTH
0.1%


Rochford and Southend East
County/Area: Essex (Essex)
MP: James Duddridge  (CON)
Electorate: 71,080
Turnout: 58.57%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON19,50946.86%47.65%
LAB8,45920.32%30.47%
LIB8,08419.42% 6.51%
OTH5,57913.40%15.36%
CON Majority11,05026.54%Pred Maj 17.18%
Chance of winning
CON
82.2%
LAB
17.1%
LIB
0.1%
OTH
0.6%


Romford
County/Area: Havering (North London)
MP: Andrew Rosindell  (CON)
Electorate: 71,193
Turnout: 65.29%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON26,03156.00%56.54%
LAB9,07719.53%26.35%
LIB5,57211.99% 3.32%
OTH3,363 7.24% 8.55%
MIN2,438 5.25% 5.25%
CON Majority16,95436.48%Pred Maj 30.19%
Chance of winning
CON
95.5%
LAB
4.5%
LIB
0.0%
OTH
0.0%
MIN
0.0%


Romsey and Southampton North
County/Area: Hampshire (South)
MP: Caroline Nokes  (CON)
Electorate: 66,901
Turnout: 73.15%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON24,34549.75%50.52%
LIB20,18941.25%28.56%
LAB3,116 6.37%16.35%
OTH1,289 2.63% 4.56%
CON Majority4,156 8.49%Pred Maj 21.96%
Chance of winning
CON
92.4%
LIB
4.6%
LAB
2.9%
OTH
0.1%


Rossendale and Darwen
County/Area: Lancashire (Lancashire)
MP: Jake Berry  (CON)
Electorate: 73,003
Turnout: 64.56%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON19,69141.78%42.55%
LAB15,19832.25%42.13%
LIB8,54118.12% 5.56%
OTH3,698 7.85% 9.76%
CON Majority4,493 9.53%Pred Maj 0.42%
Chance of winning
CON
48.8%
LAB
50.7%
LIB
0.0%
OTH
0.5%


Rother Valley
County/Area: South Yorkshire (Humberside)
MP: Kevin Barron  (LAB)
Electorate: 72,841
Turnout: 64.19%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
LAB19,14740.95%49.94%
CON13,28128.40%29.10%
LIB8,11117.35% 5.91%
OTH6,21913.30%15.04%
LAB Majority5,86612.55%Pred Maj 20.84%
Chance of winning
LAB
89.2%
CON
10.3%
LIB
0.0%
OTH
0.5%


Rotherham
County/Area: South Yorkshire (Humberside)
MP: Denis MacShane  (LAB)
Electorate: 63,565
Turnout: 59.00%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
LAB16,74144.64%52.92%
CON6,27916.74%17.39%
LIB5,99415.98% 5.45%
OTH4,58612.23%13.83%
MIN3,90610.41%10.41%
LAB Majority10,46227.89%Pred Maj 35.54%
Chance of winning
LAB
98.2%
CON
1.6%
LIB
0.0%
OTH
0.2%
MIN
0.0%


Rugby
County/Area: Warwickshire (East Midlands)
MP: Mark Pawsey  (CON)
Electorate: 68,914
Turnout: 68.88%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON20,90144.03%44.85%
LAB14,90131.39%41.89%
LIB9,43419.87% 6.53%
OTH2,232 4.70% 6.73%
CON Majority6,00012.64%Pred Maj 2.96%
Chance of winning
CON
56.7%
LAB
43.0%
LIB
0.0%
OTH
0.3%


Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner
County/Area: Hillingdon (South London)
MP: Nick Hurd  (CON)
Electorate: 70,873
Turnout: 70.84%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON28,86657.50%58.23%
LAB9,80619.53%28.99%
LIB8,34516.62% 4.60%
OTH3,188 6.35% 8.18%
CON Majority19,06037.96%Pred Maj 29.24%
Chance of winning
CON
94.8%
LAB
5.1%
LIB
0.1%
OTH
0.0%


Runnymede and Weybridge
County/Area: Surrey (South)
MP: Philip Hammond  (CON)
Electorate: 72,566
Turnout: 66.35%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON26,91555.90%56.68%
LIB10,40621.61% 8.92%
LAB6,44613.39%23.37%
OTH4,383 9.10%11.03%
CON Majority16,50934.29%Pred Maj 33.31%
Chance of winning
CON
96.1%
LIB
0.1%
LAB
3.7%
OTH
0.1%


Rushcliffe
County/Area: Nottinghamshire (East Midlands)
MP: Kenneth Clarke  (CON)
Electorate: 72,955
Turnout: 73.59%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON27,47051.17%51.99%
LIB11,65921.72% 8.28%
LAB11,12820.73%31.30%
OTH3,430 6.39% 8.43%
CON Majority15,81129.45%Pred Maj 20.70%
Chance of winning
CON
88.2%
LIB
0.1%
LAB
11.6%
OTH
0.1%


Rutland and Melton
County/Area: Leicestershire (East Midlands)
MP: Alan Duncan  (CON)
Electorate: 77,185
Turnout: 71.54%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON28,22851.12%51.94%
LIB14,22825.77%12.33%
LAB7,89314.29%24.86%
OTH4,871 8.82%10.86%
CON Majority14,00025.35%Pred Maj 27.08%
Chance of winning
CON
92.7%
LIB
0.3%
LAB
6.8%
OTH
0.2%


Saffron Walden
County/Area: Essex (Essex)
MP: Sir Alan Haselhurst  (CON)
Electorate: 76,035
Turnout: 71.51%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON30,15555.46%56.28%
LIB14,91327.43%14.14%
LAB5,288 9.73%20.18%
OTH4,013 7.38% 9.40%
CON Majority15,24228.03%Pred Maj 36.10%
Chance of winning
CON
97.0%
LIB
0.2%
LAB
2.7%
OTH
0.1%


Salford and Eccles
County/Area: Central Manchester (Greater Manchester)
MP: Hazel Blears  (LAB)
Electorate: 75,482
Turnout: 55.02%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
LAB16,65540.10%51.01%
LIB10,93026.32%12.45%
CON8,49720.46%21.31%
OTH5,45113.12%15.23%
LAB Majority5,72513.78%Pred Maj 29.70%
Chance of winning
LAB
91.7%
LIB
0.3%
CON
6.9%
OTH
1.1%


Salisbury
County/Area: Wiltshire (West)
MP: John Glen  (CON)
Electorate: 67,429
Turnout: 71.90%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON23,85949.21%49.97%
LIB17,89336.91%24.56%
LAB3,690 7.61%17.33%
OTH3,039 6.27% 8.14%
CON Majority5,96612.31%Pred Maj 25.41%
Chance of winning
CON
93.9%
LIB
2.4%
LAB
3.6%
OTH
0.1%


Scarborough and Whitby
County/Area: North Yorkshire (Yorkshire)
MP: Robert Goodwill  (CON)
Electorate: 75,443
Turnout: 65.32%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON21,10842.83%43.64%
LAB12,97826.33%36.71%
LIB11,09322.51% 9.33%
OTH4,103 8.33%10.33%
CON Majority8,13016.50%Pred Maj 6.93%
Chance of winning
CON
63.6%
LAB
35.8%
LIB
0.1%
OTH
0.5%


Scunthorpe
County/Area: Humber area (Humberside)
MP: Nic Dakin  (LAB)
Electorate: 63,089
Turnout: 58.70%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
LAB14,64039.53%49.02%
CON12,09132.65%33.39%
LIB6,77418.29% 6.23%
OTH3,529 9.53%11.36%
LAB Majority2,549 6.88%Pred Maj 15.63%
Chance of winning
LAB
81.3%
CON
18.4%
LIB
0.0%
OTH
0.3%


Sedgefield
County/Area: Durham (North)
MP: Phil Wilson  (LAB)
Electorate: 64,727
Turnout: 62.14%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
LAB18,14145.10%55.83%
CON9,44523.48%24.32%
LIB8,03319.97% 6.34%
OTH4,60311.44%13.51%
LAB Majority8,69621.62%Pred Maj 31.51%
Chance of winning
LAB
95.0%
CON
4.8%
LIB
0.0%
OTH
0.2%


Sefton Central
County/Area: Merseyside (Lancashire)
MP: Bill Esterson  (LAB)
Electorate: 67,512
Turnout: 71.78%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
LAB20,30741.90%52.77%
CON16,44533.93%34.78%
LIB9,65619.92% 6.11%
OTH2,055 4.24% 6.34%
LAB Majority3,862 7.97%Pred Maj 17.99%
Chance of winning
LAB
83.4%
CON
16.4%
LIB
0.0%
OTH
0.2%


Selby and Ainsty
County/Area: North Yorkshire (Yorkshire)
MP: Nigel Adams  (CON)
Electorate: 72,789
Turnout: 71.07%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON25,56249.42%50.13%
LAB13,29725.71%34.91%
LIB9,18017.75% 6.05%
OTH3,689 7.13% 8.91%
CON Majority12,26523.71%Pred Maj 15.23%
Chance of winning
CON
81.3%
LAB
18.6%
LIB
0.0%
OTH
0.1%


Sevenoaks
County/Area: Kent (South East)
MP: Michael Fallon  (CON)
Electorate: 69,591
Turnout: 71.00%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON28,07656.82%57.60%
LIB10,56121.38% 8.69%
LAB6,54113.24%23.22%
OTH4,230 8.56%10.49%
CON Majority17,51535.45%Pred Maj 34.38%
Chance of winning
CON
96.4%
LIB
0.1%
LAB
3.4%
OTH
0.1%


Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough
County/Area: South Yorkshire (Humberside)
MP: David Blunkett  (LAB)
Electorate: 68,186
Turnout: 57.07%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
LAB21,40054.99%65.34%
LIB7,76819.96% 6.80%
CON4,46811.48%12.29%
MIN3,026 7.78% 7.78%
OTH2,252 5.79% 7.79%
LAB Majority13,63235.03%Pred Maj 53.06%
Chance of winning
LAB
99.9%
LIB
0.0%
CON
0.1%
MIN
0.0%
OTH
0.0%


Sheffield Central
County/Area: South Yorkshire (Humberside)
MP: Paul Blomfield  (LAB)
Electorate: 69,519
Turnout: 59.65%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
LAB17,13841.33%51.70%
LIB16,97340.93%27.75%
CON4,20610.14%10.95%
OTH3,151 7.60% 9.60%
LAB Majority165 0.40%Pred Maj 23.95%
Chance of winning
LAB
93.6%
LIB
4.5%
CON
1.6%
OTH
0.3%


Sheffield Hallam
County/Area: South Yorkshire (Humberside)
MP: Nick Clegg  (LIB)
Electorate: 69,378
Turnout: 73.70%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
LIB27,32453.44%40.25%
CON12,04023.55%24.35%
LAB8,22816.09%26.46%
OTH3,543 6.93% 8.93%
LIB Majority15,28429.89%Pred Maj 13.79%
Chance of winning
LIB
70.6%
CON
11.8%
LAB
16.7%
OTH
0.9%


Sheffield Heeley
County/Area: South Yorkshire (Humberside)
MP: Meg Munn  (LAB)
Electorate: 65,869
Turnout: 62.05%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
LAB17,40942.59%52.97%
LIB11,60228.39%15.20%
CON7,08117.33%18.13%
OTH4,77911.69%13.70%
LAB Majority5,80714.21%Pred Maj 34.83%
Chance of winning
LAB
95.4%
LIB
0.2%
CON
3.9%
OTH
0.5%


Sheffield South East
County/Area: South Yorkshire (Humberside)
MP: Clive Betts  (LAB)
Electorate: 67,284
Turnout: 61.54%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
LAB20,16948.71%59.08%
LIB9,66423.34%10.16%
CON7,20217.39%18.20%
OTH4,37310.56%12.56%
LAB Majority10,50525.37%Pred Maj 40.88%
Chance of winning
LAB
98.4%
LIB
0.0%
CON
1.4%
OTH
0.2%


Sherwood
County/Area: Nottinghamshire (East Midlands)
MP: Mark Spencer  (CON)
Electorate: 71,043
Turnout: 68.91%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON19,21139.24%39.86%
LAB18,99738.81%46.67%
LIB7,28314.88% 4.89%
OTH3,463 7.07% 8.59%
CON Majority214 0.44%Pred Maj 6.81%
Chance of winning
CON
31.2%
LAB
68.6%
LIB
0.0%
OTH
0.2%

LAB Gain

Shipley
County/Area: West Yorkshire (Yorkshire)
MP: Philip Davies  (CON)
Electorate: 67,689
Turnout: 73.02%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON24,00248.56%49.37%
LAB14,05828.44%38.81%
LIB9,89020.01% 6.83%
OTH1,477 2.99% 4.99%
CON Majority9,94420.12%Pred Maj 10.56%
Chance of winning
CON
75.2%
LAB
24.7%
LIB
0.0%
OTH
0.1%


Shrewsbury and Atcham
County/Area: Shropshire (Severn)
MP: Daniel Kawczynski  (CON)
Electorate: 75,438
Turnout: 70.32%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON23,31343.95%44.80%
LIB15,36928.97%15.16%
LAB10,91520.58%31.44%
OTH3,448 6.50% 8.60%
CON Majority7,94414.98%Pred Maj 13.35%
Chance of winning
CON
76.9%
LIB
1.1%
LAB
21.5%
OTH
0.5%


Shropshire North
County/Area: Shropshire (Severn)
MP: Owen Paterson  (CON)
Electorate: 78,926
Turnout: 65.72%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON26,69251.46%52.31%
LIB10,86420.95% 7.14%
LAB9,40618.13%29.00%
OTH4,907 9.46%11.56%
CON Majority15,82830.52%Pred Maj 23.31%
Chance of winning
CON
89.7%
LIB
0.1%
LAB
10.1%
OTH
0.1%


Sittingbourne and Sheppey
County/Area: Kent (South East)
MP: Gordon Henderson  (CON)
Electorate: 75,354
Turnout: 64.47%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON24,31350.05%50.69%
LAB11,93024.56%32.72%
LIB7,94316.35% 5.98%
OTH4,392 9.04%10.62%
CON Majority12,38325.49%Pred Maj 17.97%
Chance of winning
CON
84.7%
LAB
15.2%
LIB
0.0%
OTH
0.1%


Skipton and Ripon
County/Area: North Yorkshire (Yorkshire)
MP: Julian Smith  (CON)
Electorate: 77,381
Turnout: 70.72%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON27,68550.59%51.40%
LIB17,73532.41%19.23%
LAB5,49810.05%20.42%
OTH3,806 6.95% 8.96%
CON Majority9,95018.18%Pred Maj 30.98%
Chance of winning
CON
94.6%
LIB
0.6%
LAB
4.5%
OTH
0.3%


Sleaford and North Hykeham
County/Area: Lincolnshire (Humberside)
MP: Stephen Phillips  (CON)
Electorate: 85,550
Turnout: 69.59%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON30,71951.60%52.34%
LIB10,81418.17% 6.19%
LAB10,05116.88%26.30%
OTH4,140 6.95% 8.77%
MIN3,806 6.39% 6.39%
CON Majority19,90533.44%Pred Maj 26.03%
Chance of winning
CON
92.7%
LIB
0.1%
LAB
7.1%
OTH
0.1%
MIN
0.0%


Slough
County/Area: Berkshire (South)
MP: Fiona Mactaggart  (LAB)
Electorate: 77,068
Turnout: 61.95%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
LAB21,88445.84%53.10%
CON16,36134.27%34.84%
LIB6,94314.54% 5.32%
OTH2,554 5.35% 6.75%
LAB Majority5,52311.57%Pred Maj 18.26%
Chance of winning
LAB
89.6%
CON
10.4%
LIB
0.0%
OTH
0.0%


Solihull
County/Area: Coventry and Solihull (West Midlands)
MP: Lorely Burt  (LIB)
Electorate: 77,863
Turnout: 70.80%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
LIB23,63542.87%29.06%
CON23,46042.55%43.40%
LAB4,891 8.87%19.74%
OTH3,143 5.70% 7.80%
LIB Majority175 0.32%Pred Maj 14.34%
Chance of winning
LIB
13.3%
CON
76.4%
LAB
9.4%
OTH
0.9%

CON Gain

Somerset North
County/Area: Bristol area (West)
MP: Liam Fox  (CON)
Electorate: 77,304
Turnout: 74.95%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON28,54949.27%50.03%
LIB20,68735.70%23.35%
LAB6,44811.13%20.85%
OTH2,257 3.90% 5.77%
CON Majority7,86213.57%Pred Maj 26.68%
Chance of winning
CON
93.5%
LIB
1.8%
LAB
4.6%
OTH
0.1%


Somerset North East
County/Area: Bristol area (West)
MP: Jacob Rees-Mogg  (CON)
Electorate: 67,412
Turnout: 75.96%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON21,13041.27%42.02%
LAB16,21631.67%41.39%
LIB11,43322.33% 9.98%
OTH2,424 4.73% 6.61%
CON Majority4,914 9.60%Pred Maj 0.64%
Chance of winning
CON
50.3%
LAB
49.3%
LIB
0.1%
OTH
0.3%


Somerton and Frome
County/Area: Somerset (South West)
MP: David Heath  (LIB)
Electorate: 81,548
Turnout: 74.33%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
LIB28,79347.50%35.15%
CON26,97644.51%45.26%
LAB2,675 4.41%14.13%
OTH2,168 3.58% 5.45%
LIB Majority1,817 3.00%Pred Maj 10.11%
Chance of winning
LIB
20.1%
CON
77.8%
LAB
1.9%
OTH
0.2%

CON Gain

South Holland and The Deepings
County/Area: Lincolnshire (Humberside)
MP: John Hayes  (CON)
Electorate: 76,243
Turnout: 65.83%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON29,63959.06%59.68%
LIB7,75915.46% 5.27%
LAB7,02414.00%22.01%
OTH5,76611.49%13.04%
CON Majority21,88043.60%Pred Maj 37.67%
Chance of winning
CON
97.2%
LIB
0.0%
LAB
2.8%
OTH
0.0%


South Shields
County/Area: Newcastle area (North)
MP: David Miliband  (LAB)
Electorate: 63,294
Turnout: 57.70%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
LAB18,99552.02%59.64%
CON7,88621.59%22.19%
LIB5,18914.21% 4.51%
OTH4,44812.18%13.65%
LAB Majority11,10930.42%Pred Maj 37.46%
Chance of winning
LAB
99.1%
CON
0.9%
LIB
0.0%
OTH
0.0%


Southampton Itchen
County/Area: Hampshire (South)
MP: John Denham  (LAB)
Electorate: 74,532
Turnout: 59.59%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
LAB16,32636.76%46.74%
CON16,13436.33%37.11%
LIB9,25620.84% 8.15%
OTH2,696 6.07% 8.00%
LAB Majority192 0.43%Pred Maj 9.64%
Chance of winning
LAB
70.0%
CON
29.4%
LIB
0.2%
OTH
0.4%


Southampton Test
County/Area: Hampshire (South)
MP: Alan Whitehead  (LAB)
Electorate: 71,931
Turnout: 61.43%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
LAB17,00138.48%48.46%
CON14,58833.01%33.79%
LIB9,86522.33% 9.64%
OTH2,733 6.19% 8.11%
LAB Majority2,413 5.46%Pred Maj 14.67%
Chance of winning
LAB
78.1%
CON
21.5%
LIB
0.1%
OTH
0.3%


Southend West
County/Area: Essex (Essex)
MP: David Amess  (CON)
Electorate: 66,527
Turnout: 65.55%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON20,08646.06%46.88%
LIB12,81629.39%16.10%
LAB5,85013.42%23.87%
OTH4,85411.13%13.15%
CON Majority7,27016.67%Pred Maj 23.00%
Chance of winning
CON
87.8%
LIB
1.0%
LAB
10.3%
OTH
0.9%


Southport
County/Area: Merseyside (Lancashire)
MP: John Pugh  (LIB)
Electorate: 67,202
Turnout: 65.11%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
LIB21,70749.61%35.74%
CON15,68335.84%36.69%
LAB4,116 9.41%20.32%
OTH2,251 5.14% 7.25%
LIB Majority6,02413.77%Pred Maj 0.95%
Chance of winning
LIB
40.5%
CON
46.2%
LAB
12.2%
OTH
1.1%

CON Gain

Spelthorne
County/Area: Surrey (South)
MP: Kwasi Kwarteng  (CON)
Electorate: 70,479
Turnout: 67.12%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON22,26147.06%47.84%
LIB12,24225.88%13.19%
LAB7,78916.47%26.45%
OTH5,01210.60%12.52%
CON Majority10,01921.18%Pred Maj 21.39%
Chance of winning
CON
87.2%
LIB
0.3%
LAB
12.1%
OTH
0.4%


St Albans
County/Area: Hertfordshire (Essex)
MP: Anne Main  (CON)
Electorate: 70,058
Turnout: 75.42%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON21,53340.76%41.57%
LIB19,22836.39%23.10%
LAB9,28817.58%28.04%
OTH2,786 5.27% 7.29%
CON Majority2,305 4.36%Pred Maj 13.53%
Chance of winning
CON
73.7%
LIB
5.2%
LAB
20.5%
OTH
0.6%


St Austell and Newquay
County/Area: Cornwall (South West)
MP: Stephen Gilbert  (LIB)
Electorate: 76,346
Turnout: 61.87%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
LIB20,18942.74%30.39%
CON18,87739.96%40.72%
LAB3,386 7.17%16.89%
OTH2,779 5.88% 7.76%
MIN2,007 4.25% 4.25%
LIB Majority1,312 2.78%Pred Maj 10.33%
Chance of winning
LIB
17.5%
CON
75.4%
LAB
6.5%
OTH
0.6%
MIN
0.0%

CON Gain

St Helens North
County/Area: Merseyside (Lancashire)
MP: Dave Watts  (LAB)
Electorate: 74,985
Turnout: 59.42%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
LAB23,04151.71%62.62%
CON9,94022.31%23.16%
LIB8,99220.18% 6.31%
OTH2,583 5.80% 7.90%
LAB Majority13,10129.40%Pred Maj 39.46%
Chance of winning
LAB
98.6%
CON
1.4%
LIB
0.0%
OTH
0.0%


St Helens South and Whiston
County/Area: Merseyside (Lancashire)
MP: Shaun Woodward  (LAB)
Electorate: 77,975
Turnout: 59.10%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
LAB24,36452.87%63.78%
LIB10,24222.23% 8.36%
CON8,20917.81%18.66%
OTH3,266 7.09% 9.19%
LAB Majority14,12230.65%Pred Maj 45.12%
Chance of winning
LAB
99.3%
LIB
0.0%
CON
0.7%
OTH
0.0%


St Ives
County/Area: Cornwall (South West)
MP: Andrew George  (LIB)
Electorate: 66,930
Turnout: 68.61%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
LIB19,61942.72%30.37%
CON17,90038.98%39.74%
LAB3,751 8.17%17.89%
MIN2,560 5.57% 5.57%
OTH2,091 4.55% 6.43%
LIB Majority1,719 3.74%Pred Maj 9.37%
Chance of winning
LIB
19.0%
CON
73.4%
LAB
7.1%
MIN
0.0%
OTH
0.5%

CON Gain

Stafford
County/Area: Staffordshire (Severn)
MP: Jeremy Lefroy  (CON)
Electorate: 70,587
Turnout: 71.17%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON22,04743.88%44.58%
LAB16,58733.02%41.89%
LIB8,21116.34% 5.06%
OTH3,394 6.76% 8.47%
CON Majority5,46010.87%Pred Maj 2.68%
Chance of winning
CON
54.3%
LAB
45.4%
LIB
0.0%
OTH
0.3%


Staffordshire Moorlands
County/Area: Staffordshire (Severn)
MP: Karen Bradley  (CON)
Electorate: 62,071
Turnout: 70.59%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON19,79345.17%45.88%
LAB13,10429.91%39.01%
LIB7,33816.75% 5.18%
OTH3,580 8.17% 9.93%
CON Majority6,68915.27%Pred Maj 6.88%
Chance of winning
CON
64.6%
LAB
35.1%
LIB
0.0%
OTH
0.3%


Staffordshire South
County/Area: Staffordshire (Severn)
MP: Gavin Williamson  (CON)
Electorate: 73,390
Turnout: 68.73%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON26,83453.20%53.91%
LAB10,24420.31%29.39%
LIB8,42716.71% 5.17%
OTH4,935 9.78%11.54%
CON Majority16,59032.89%Pred Maj 24.52%
Chance of winning
CON
91.5%
LAB
8.3%
LIB
0.1%
OTH
0.1%


Stalybridge and Hyde
County/Area: Eastern Manchester (Greater Manchester)
MP: Jonathan Reynolds  (LAB)
Electorate: 69,037
Turnout: 59.21%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
LAB16,18939.60%48.90%
CON13,44532.89%33.61%
LIB6,96517.04% 5.22%
OTH4,28010.47%12.26%
LAB Majority2,744 6.71%Pred Maj 15.28%
Chance of winning
LAB
80.8%
CON
18.9%
LIB
0.0%
OTH
0.3%


Stevenage
County/Area: Hertfordshire (Essex)
MP: Stephen McPartland  (CON)
Electorate: 68,937
Turnout: 64.77%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON18,49141.41%42.09%
LAB14,91333.40%42.10%
LIB7,43216.64% 5.58%
OTH3,815 8.54%10.22%
CON Majority3,578 8.01%Pred Maj 0.01%
Chance of winning
CON
47.4%
LAB
52.2%
LIB
0.0%
OTH
0.4%

LAB Gain

Stockport
County/Area: Eastern Manchester (Greater Manchester)
MP: Ann Coffey  (LAB)
Electorate: 63,525
Turnout: 61.59%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
LAB16,69742.67%53.58%
CON9,91325.33%26.19%
LIB9,77824.99%11.12%
OTH2,740 7.00% 9.11%
LAB Majority6,78417.34%Pred Maj 27.40%
Chance of winning
LAB
92.6%
CON
7.1%
LIB
0.1%
OTH
0.2%


Stockton North
County/Area: Teeside (North)
MP: Alex Cunningham  (LAB)
Electorate: 67,363
Turnout: 58.63%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
LAB16,92342.85%51.47%
CON10,24725.94%26.62%
LIB6,34216.06% 5.10%
OTH5,98615.16%16.82%
LAB Majority6,67616.90%Pred Maj 24.85%
Chance of winning
LAB
92.7%
CON
6.9%
LIB
0.0%
OTH
0.4%


Stockton South
County/Area: Teeside (North)
MP: James Wharton  (CON)
Electorate: 74,552
Turnout: 67.45%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON19,57738.93%39.57%
LAB19,24538.27%46.39%
LIB7,60015.11% 4.80%
OTH3,862 7.68% 9.25%
CON Majority332 0.66%Pred Maj 6.82%
Chance of winning
CON
31.4%
LAB
68.4%
LIB
0.0%
OTH
0.2%

LAB Gain

Stoke-on-Trent Central
County/Area: Staffordshire (Severn)
MP: Tristram Hunt  (LAB)
Electorate: 60,995
Turnout: 53.23%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
LAB12,60538.82%49.69%
LIB7,03921.68% 7.87%
CON6,83321.04%21.89%
OTH5,99318.46%20.56%
LAB Majority5,56617.14%Pred Maj 27.79%
Chance of winning
LAB
89.0%
LIB
0.1%
CON
8.2%
OTH
2.7%


Stoke-on-Trent North
County/Area: Staffordshire (Severn)
MP: Joan Walley  (LAB)
Electorate: 72,052
Turnout: 55.79%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
LAB17,81544.32%53.94%
CON9,58023.83%24.58%
LIB7,12017.71% 5.48%
OTH5,68114.13%15.99%
LAB Majority8,23520.49%Pred Maj 29.36%
Chance of winning
LAB
93.9%
CON
5.7%
LIB
0.0%
OTH
0.4%


Stoke-on-Trent South
County/Area: Staffordshire (Severn)
MP: Robert Flello  (LAB)
Electorate: 68,031
Turnout: 58.58%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
LAB15,44638.76%47.38%
CON11,31628.40%29.07%
LIB6,32315.87% 4.91%
MIN3,762 9.44% 9.44%
OTH3,005 7.54% 9.20%
LAB Majority4,13010.36%Pred Maj 18.31%
Chance of winning
LAB
88.1%
CON
11.7%
LIB
0.0%
MIN
0.0%
OTH
0.2%


Stone
County/Area: Staffordshire (Severn)
MP: William Cash  (CON)
Electorate: 66,979
Turnout: 70.51%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON23,89050.58%51.43%
LIB10,59822.44% 8.63%
LAB9,77020.69%31.55%
OTH2,971 6.29% 8.39%
CON Majority13,29228.14%Pred Maj 19.88%
Chance of winning
CON
87.0%
LIB
0.2%
LAB
12.7%
OTH
0.1%


Stourbridge
County/Area: Black Country (West Midlands)
MP: Margot James  (CON)
Electorate: 69,637
Turnout: 67.83%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON20,15342.67%43.36%
LAB14,98931.73%40.63%
LIB7,73316.37% 5.07%
OTH4,359 9.23%10.95%
CON Majority5,16410.93%Pred Maj 2.73%
Chance of winning
CON
53.4%
LAB
46.2%
LIB
0.0%
OTH
0.4%


Stratford-on-Avon
County/Area: Warwickshire (East Midlands)
MP: Nadhim Zahawi  (CON)
Electorate: 69,516
Turnout: 72.71%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON26,05251.55%52.37%
LIB14,70629.10%15.66%
LAB4,809 9.51%20.08%
OTH3,129 6.19% 8.23%
MIN1,846 3.65% 3.65%
CON Majority11,34622.45%Pred Maj 32.29%
Chance of winning
CON
95.6%
LIB
0.3%
LAB
3.9%
OTH
0.2%
MIN
0.0%


Streatham
County/Area: Lambeth (South London)
MP: Chuka Umunna  (LAB)
Electorate: 74,531
Turnout: 62.84%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
LAB20,03742.78%54.16%
LIB16,77835.82%21.36%
CON8,57818.31%19.20%
OTH1,444 3.08% 5.28%
LAB Majority3,259 6.96%Pred Maj 32.81%
Chance of winning
LAB
94.2%
LIB
1.6%
CON
4.0%
OTH
0.2%


Stretford and Urmston
County/Area: Central Manchester (Greater Manchester)
MP: Kate Green  (LAB)
Electorate: 70,091
Turnout: 64.07%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
LAB21,82148.59%57.82%
CON12,88628.69%29.41%
LIB7,60116.92% 5.19%
OTH2,602 5.79% 7.58%
LAB Majority8,93519.90%Pred Maj 28.41%
Chance of winning
LAB
95.6%
CON
4.4%
LIB
0.0%
OTH
0.0%


Stroud
County/Area: Gloucestershire (West)
MP: Neil Carmichael  (CON)
Electorate: 78,305
Turnout: 74.03%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON23,67940.84%41.43%
LAB22,38038.60%46.11%
LIB8,95515.45% 5.91%
OTH2,959 5.10% 6.55%
CON Majority1,299 2.24%Pred Maj 4.68%
Chance of winning
CON
36.2%
LAB
63.6%
LIB
0.0%
OTH
0.2%

LAB Gain

Suffolk Central and Ipswich North
County/Area: Suffolk (East Anglia)
MP: Daniel Poulter  (CON)
Electorate: 75,848
Turnout: 70.43%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON27,12550.78%51.59%
LIB13,33924.97%11.68%
LAB8,63616.17%26.62%
OTH4,320 8.09%10.11%
CON Majority13,78625.81%Pred Maj 24.97%
Chance of winning
CON
91.5%
LIB
0.3%
LAB
8.0%
OTH
0.2%


Suffolk Coastal
County/Area: Suffolk (East Anglia)
MP: Therese Coffey  (CON)
Electorate: 76,687
Turnout: 71.58%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON25,47546.41%47.22%
LIB16,34729.78%16.49%
LAB8,81216.05%26.51%
OTH4,259 7.76% 9.78%
CON Majority9,12816.63%Pred Maj 20.71%
Chance of winning
CON
86.9%
LIB
0.8%
LAB
12.0%
OTH
0.3%


Suffolk South
County/Area: Suffolk (East Anglia)
MP: Tim Yeo  (CON)
Electorate: 72,498
Turnout: 70.92%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON24,55047.75%48.56%
LIB15,86130.85%17.56%
LAB7,36814.33%24.79%
OTH3,637 7.07% 9.09%
CON Majority8,68916.90%Pred Maj 23.78%
Chance of winning
CON
89.9%
LIB
0.8%
LAB
9.1%
OTH
0.2%


Suffolk West
County/Area: Suffolk (East Anglia)
MP: Matthew Hancock  (CON)
Electorate: 74,413
Turnout: 64.62%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON24,31250.56%51.37%
LIB11,26223.42%10.13%
LAB7,08914.74%25.20%
OTH5,42611.28%13.30%
CON Majority13,05027.14%Pred Maj 26.17%
Chance of winning
CON
91.9%
LIB
0.2%
LAB
7.4%
OTH
0.5%


Sunderland Central
County/Area: Newcastle area (North)
MP: Julie Elliott  (LAB)
Electorate: 74,485
Turnout: 57.01%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
LAB19,49545.91%55.00%
CON12,77030.07%30.78%
LIB7,19116.93% 5.38%
OTH3,007 7.08% 8.84%
LAB Majority6,72515.84%Pred Maj 24.22%
Chance of winning
LAB
93.7%
CON
6.3%
LIB
0.0%
OTH
0.0%


Surrey East
County/Area: Surrey (South)
MP: Sam Gyimah  (CON)
Electorate: 76,855
Turnout: 71.09%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON31,00756.75%57.53%
LIB14,13325.87%13.18%
LAB4,925 9.01%19.00%
OTH4,575 8.37%10.30%
CON Majority16,87430.88%Pred Maj 38.53%
Chance of winning
CON
97.9%
LIB
0.1%
LAB
2.0%
OTH
0.0%


Surrey Heath
County/Area: Surrey (South)
MP: Michael Gove  (CON)
Electorate: 77,690
Turnout: 69.95%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON31,32657.64%58.42%
LIB14,03725.83%13.14%
LAB5,55210.22%20.20%
OTH3,432 6.31% 8.24%
CON Majority17,28931.81%Pred Maj 38.22%
Chance of winning
CON
98.2%
LIB
0.1%
LAB
1.7%
OTH
0.0%


Surrey South West
County/Area: Surrey (South)
MP: Jeremy Hunt  (CON)
Electorate: 77,980
Turnout: 73.43%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON33,60558.69%59.47%
LIB17,28730.19%17.50%
LAB3,419 5.97%15.95%
OTH2,948 5.15% 7.08%
CON Majority16,31828.50%Pred Maj 41.97%
Chance of winning
CON
99.1%
LIB
0.1%
LAB
0.8%
OTH
0.0%


Sussex Mid
County/Area: West Sussex (South East)
MP: Nicholas Soames  (CON)
Electorate: 77,182
Turnout: 72.37%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON28,32950.72%51.50%
LIB20,92737.47%24.78%
LAB3,689 6.60%16.59%
OTH2,910 5.21% 7.14%
CON Majority7,40213.25%Pred Maj 26.72%
Chance of winning
CON
95.2%
LIB
1.9%
LAB
2.8%
OTH
0.1%


Sutton and Cheam
County/Area: Sutton (South London)
MP: Paul Burstow  (LIB)
Electorate: 66,658
Turnout: 72.77%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
LIB22,15645.67%31.21%
CON20,54842.36%43.25%
LAB3,376 6.96%18.34%
OTH2,428 5.01% 7.20%
LIB Majority1,608 3.31%Pred Maj 12.04%
Chance of winning
LIB
17.3%
CON
73.1%
LAB
8.5%
OTH
1.1%

CON Gain

Sutton Coldfield
County/Area: Birmingham (West Midlands)
MP: Andrew Mitchell  (CON)
Electorate: 74,489
Turnout: 67.91%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON27,30353.97%54.73%
LAB10,29820.36%30.15%
LIB9,11718.02% 5.58%
OTH3,871 7.65% 9.54%
CON Majority17,00533.61%Pred Maj 24.59%
Chance of winning
CON
91.9%
LAB
7.9%
LIB
0.1%
OTH
0.1%


Swindon North
County/Area: Wiltshire (West)
MP: Justin Tomlinson  (CON)
Electorate: 78,391
Turnout: 64.16%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON22,40844.55%45.21%
LAB15,34830.52%38.89%
LIB8,66817.23% 6.59%
OTH3,871 7.70% 9.31%
CON Majority7,06014.04%Pred Maj 6.32%
Chance of winning
CON
62.5%
LAB
37.2%
LIB
0.0%
OTH
0.3%


Swindon South
County/Area: Wiltshire (West)
MP: Robert Buckland  (CON)
Electorate: 72,622
Turnout: 64.88%
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON19,68741.78%42.45%
LAB16,14334.26%42.82%
LIB8,30517.63% 6.74%
OTH2,984 6.33% 7.99%
CON Majority3,544 7.52%Pred Maj 0.37%
Chance of winning
CON
47.0%
LAB
52.7%
LIB
0.0%
OTH
0.3%

LAB Gain