Constituency List: England R-S

Rawmarsh and Conisbrough

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	John Healey (LAB)
County/Area:	South Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	69,132
Turnout:	49.0%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,612	49.0%	26.5%
Reform	9,704	28.6%	51.9%
CON	4,496	13.3%	7.5%
Green	1,687	5.0%	8.5%
LIB	1,137	3.4%	3.0%
MIN	268	0.8%	2.2%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.5%
LAB Majority	6,908	20.4%	25.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

Reform

94%

CON

Green

LIB

MIN

OTH

Rayleigh and Wickford

Prediction: Reform gain from CON

MP at 2024:	Mark Francois (CON)
County/Area:	Essex (Anglia)
Electorate:	76,576
Turnout:	62.7%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	17,756	37.0%	39.6%
Reform	12,135	25.3%	43.5%
LAB	11,823	24.6%	8.6%
LIB	4,068	8.5%	3.3%
Green	2,196	4.6%	4.3%
MIN	0	0.0%	0.5%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.2%
CON Majority	5,621	11.7%	3.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

38%

Reform

62%

LAB

LIB

Green

MIN

OTH

Reading Central

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Matt Rodda (LAB)
County/Area:	Berkshire (South East)
Electorate:	73,600
Turnout:	61.5%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	21,598	47.7%	26.0%
CON	8,961	19.8%	15.3%
Green	6,417	14.2%	25.6%
LIB	3,963	8.8%	11.0%
Reform	3,904	8.6%	18.7%
OTH	448	1.0%	0.7%
MIN	0	0.0%	2.7%
LAB Majority	12,637	27.9%	0.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

41%

CON

Green

38%

LIB

Reform

12%

OTH

MIN

Reading West and Mid Berkshire

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Olivia Bailey (LAB)
County/Area:	Berkshire (South East)
Electorate:	68,786
Turnout:	67.7%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,273	35.0%	21.9%
CON	14,912	32.0%	22.2%
Reform	6,260	13.4%	28.6%
LIB	5,103	11.0%	14.1%
Green	3,169	6.8%	10.9%
OTH	834	1.8%	0.9%
MIN	0	0.0%	1.4%
LAB Majority	1,361	2.9%	6.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

20%

CON

27%

Reform

48%

LIB

Green

OTH

MIN

Redcar

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Anna Turley (LAB)
County/Area:	Teesside (North East)
Electorate:	70,241
Turnout:	54.4%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	15,663	41.0%	21.1%
CON	12,340	32.3%	19.4%
Reform	7,216	18.9%	41.2%
LIB	1,542	4.0%	6.9%
Green	1,270	3.3%	8.3%
OTH	169	0.4%	0.6%
MIN	0	0.0%	2.5%
LAB Majority	3,323	8.7%	20.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

CON

Reform

86%

LIB

Green

OTH

MIN

Redditch

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Christopher James Bloore (LAB)
County/Area:	Hereford and Worcestershire (West Midlands)
Electorate:	71,038
Turnout:	59.7%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	14,810	34.9%	18.2%
CON	14,021	33.1%	21.3%
Reform	8,516	20.1%	40.7%
LIB	2,165	5.1%	7.2%
Green	2,098	5.0%	9.9%
MIN	765	1.8%	2.1%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.6%
LAB Majority	789	1.9%	19.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

CON

11%

Reform

85%

LIB

Green

MIN

OTH

Reigate

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:	Rebecca Paul (CON)
County/Area:	Surrey (South East)
Electorate:	77,101
Turnout:	68.9%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	18,822	35.4%	31.1%
LAB	15,635	29.4%	18.0%
Reform	7,240	13.6%	25.4%
LIB	6,773	12.7%	12.0%
Green	4,691	8.8%	12.5%
MIN	0	0.0%	0.8%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.3%
CON Majority	3,187	6.0%	5.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

61%

LAB

10%

Reform

25%

LIB

Green

MIN

OTH

Ribble Valley

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Maya Ellis (LAB)
County/Area:	Lancashire (North West)
Electorate:	80,484
Turnout:	64.6%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	18,177	34.9%	20.3%
CON	17,321	33.3%	23.2%
Reform	8,524	16.4%	33.4%
LIB	5,001	9.6%	12.9%
Green	1,727	3.3%	7.3%
OTH	1,273	2.4%	0.7%
MIN	0	0.0%	2.1%
LAB Majority	856	1.6%	10.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

11%

CON

24%

Reform

64%

LIB

Green

OTH

MIN

Richmond and Northallerton

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:	Rishi Sunak (CON)
County/Area:	North Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	73,888
Turnout:	65.7%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	23,059	47.5%	47.8%
LAB	10,874	22.4%	8.2%
Reform	7,142	14.7%	32.4%
LIB	4,322	8.9%	5.9%
Green	2,058	4.2%	3.9%
OTH	981	2.0%	0.4%
MIN	90	0.2%	1.3%
CON Majority	12,185	25.1%	15.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

82%

LAB

Reform

16%

LIB

Green

OTH

MIN

Richmond Park

Prediction: LIB hold

MP at 2024:	Sarah Olney (LIB)
County/Area:	Richmond upon Thames (London)
Electorate:	68,103
Turnout:	76.7%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	28,528	54.6%	45.1%
CON	11,373	21.8%	16.3%
LAB	5,048	9.7%	13.0%
Green	3,416	6.5%	13.0%
Reform	3,258	6.2%	11.0%
OTH	582	1.1%	0.7%
MIN	0	0.0%	0.8%
LIB Majority	17,155	32.9%	28.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LIB

97%

CON

LAB

Green

Reform

OTH

MIN

Rochdale

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Paul Waugh (LAB)
County/Area:	Eastern Manchester (North West)
Electorate:	71,264
Turnout:	55.7%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	13,027	32.8%	18.1%
MIN	11,587	29.2%	13.7%
Reform	6,773	17.1%	34.4%
CON	4,273	10.8%	10.6%
LIB	2,816	7.1%	8.8%
Green	1,212	3.1%	12.9%
OTH	0	0.0%	1.5%
LAB Majority	1,440	3.6%	16.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

15%

MIN

Reform

80%

CON

LIB

Green

OTH

Rochester and Strood

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Lauren Rae Edwards (LAB)
County/Area:	Kent (South East)
Electorate:	74,257
Turnout:	57.4%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	15,403	36.2%	16.0%
CON	12,473	29.3%	26.5%
Reform	9,966	23.4%	38.8%
Green	2,427	5.7%	11.7%
LIB	1,894	4.4%	5.9%
MIN	245	0.6%	0.7%
OTH	190	0.4%	0.5%
LAB Majority	2,930	6.9%	12.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

CON

23%

Reform

73%

Green

LIB

MIN

OTH

Romford

Prediction: Reform gain from CON

MP at 2024:	Andrew Rosindell (CON)
County/Area:	Havering (London)
Electorate:	72,978
Turnout:	60.4%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	15,339	34.8%	38.6%
LAB	13,876	31.5%	10.3%
Reform	9,624	21.8%	39.5%
Green	2,220	5.0%	5.6%
LIB	1,895	4.3%	4.4%
MIN	898	2.0%	1.1%
OTH	195	0.4%	0.4%
CON Majority	1,463	3.3%	0.9% Pred Maj

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Result shown is the original general election result. Andrew Rosindell has since moved to Reform UK.

Chance of winning

CON

36%

LAB

Reform

62%

Green

LIB

MIN

OTH

Romsey and Southampton North

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:	Caroline Nokes (CON)
County/Area:	Hampshire (South East)
Electorate:	71,871
Turnout:	69.6%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	19,893	39.8%	29.6%
LIB	17,702	35.4%	26.8%
Reform	5,716	11.4%	23.2%
LAB	4,640	9.3%	11.0%
Green	1,893	3.8%	8.2%
OTH	183	0.4%	0.4%
MIN	0	0.0%	0.8%
CON Majority	2,191	4.4%	2.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

44%

LIB

38%

Reform

17%

LAB

Green

OTH

MIN

Rossendale and Darwen

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Andy MacNae (LAB)
County/Area:	Lancashire (North West)
Electorate:	74,440
Turnout:	59.9%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	18,247	40.9%	21.7%
CON	12,619	28.3%	21.8%
Reform	9,695	21.7%	35.5%
Green	2,325	5.2%	11.5%
LIB	1,241	2.8%	7.1%
MIN	491	1.1%	1.9%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.5%
LAB Majority	5,628	12.6%	13.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

13%

CON

13%

Reform

74%

Green

LIB

MIN

OTH

Rother Valley

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Jake Richards (LAB)
County/Area:	South Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	69,460
Turnout:	59.9%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,023	38.5%	22.5%
CON	15,025	36.1%	24.0%
Reform	7,679	18.5%	37.7%
Green	1,706	4.1%	7.5%
LIB	1,175	2.8%	6.3%
MIN	0	0.0%	1.7%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.2%
LAB Majority	998	2.4%	13.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

10%

CON

16%

Reform

74%

Green

LIB

MIN

OTH

Rotherham

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Sarah Champion (LAB)
County/Area:	South Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	75,929
Turnout:	48.6%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,671	45.1%	24.5%
Reform	11,181	30.3%	49.8%
LIB	2,824	7.6%	5.6%
Green	2,632	7.1%	11.2%
OTH	1,910	5.2%	1.4%
MIN	1,714	4.6%	2.7%
CON	0	0.0%	4.8%
LAB Majority	5,490	14.9%	25.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

Reform

93%

LIB

Green

OTH

MIN

CON

Rugby

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	John Anthony Slinger (LAB)
County/Area:	Warwickshire (West Midlands)
Electorate:	74,901
Turnout:	65.4%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	19,533	39.9%	22.0%
CON	15,105	30.8%	20.7%
Reform	8,225	16.8%	34.3%
LIB	3,252	6.6%	10.5%
Green	2,556	5.2%	10.2%
OTH	333	0.7%	0.7%
MIN	0	0.0%	1.7%
LAB Majority	4,428	9.0%	12.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

15%

CON

13%

Reform

71%

LIB

Green

OTH

MIN

Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:	David Simmonds (CON)
County/Area:	Hillingdon (London)
Electorate:	71,683
Turnout:	65.7%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	21,366	45.4%	32.4%
LAB	13,785	29.3%	18.1%
Reform	4,671	9.9%	21.5%
LIB	4,343	9.2%	16.5%
Green	2,926	6.2%	10.3%
MIN	0	0.0%	0.9%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.3%
CON Majority	7,581	16.1%	10.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

76%

LAB

Reform

12%

LIB

Green

MIN

OTH

Runcorn and Helsby

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Mike Amesbury (LAB)
County/Area:	Cheshire (North West)
Electorate:	71,955
Turnout:	58.7%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	22,358	52.9%	41.6%
Reform	7,662	18.1%	44.2%
CON	6,756	16.0%	5.0%
Green	2,715	6.4%	4.4%
LIB	2,149	5.1%	1.9%
OTH	595	1.4%	0.6%
MIN	0	0.0%	2.4%
LAB Majority	14,696	34.8%	2.6% Pred Maj

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Result shown is the original general election result. Mike Amesbury lost his seat after a violent assault. Sarah Pinchin (Reform UK) won the seat in a by-election on 1 May 2025.

Chance of winning

LAB

35%

Reform

64%

CON

Green

LIB

OTH

MIN

Runnymede and Weybridge

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:	Ben Spencer (CON)
County/Area:	Surrey (South East)
Electorate:	73,610
Turnout:	65.6%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	18,442	38.2%	42.7%
LIB	10,815	22.4%	10.3%
LAB	9,963	20.6%	10.1%
Reform	6,419	13.3%	29.6%
Green	1,954	4.0%	6.3%
OTH	660	1.4%	0.4%
MIN	0	0.0%	0.7%
CON Majority	7,627	15.8%	13.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

62%

LIB

LAB

Reform

27%

Green

OTH

MIN

Rushcliffe

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	James William Naish (LAB)
County/Area:	Nottinghamshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	79,160
Turnout:	72.9%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	25,291	43.8%	26.2%
CON	17,865	30.9%	22.6%
Reform	6,353	11.0%	23.1%
Green	4,367	7.6%	13.7%
LIB	3,133	5.4%	11.9%
OTH	735	1.3%	0.5%
MIN	0	0.0%	2.0%
LAB Majority	7,426	12.9%	3.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

45%

CON

25%

Reform

26%

Green

LIB

OTH

MIN

Rutland and Stamford

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:	Alicia Kearns (CON)
County/Area:	Leicestershire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	71,711
Turnout:	67.7%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	21,248	43.7%	47.2%
LAB	10,854	22.3%	9.5%
Reform	7,008	14.4%	31.7%
LIB	6,252	12.9%	5.7%
Green	2,806	5.8%	4.6%
OTH	409	0.8%	0.3%
MIN	0	0.0%	1.0%
CON Majority	10,394	21.4%	15.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

78%

LAB

Reform

20%

LIB

Green

OTH

MIN

Salford

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Rebecca Long-Bailey (LAB)
County/Area:	Central Manchester (North West)
Electorate:	83,633
Turnout:	47.5%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	21,132	53.2%	24.1%
Reform	6,031	15.2%	30.4%
Green	5,188	13.1%	26.5%
CON	3,583	9.0%	8.3%
LIB	2,752	6.9%	6.8%
MIN	791	2.0%	3.2%
OTH	227	0.6%	0.8%
LAB Majority	15,101	38.0%	3.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

22%

Reform

48%

Green

30%

CON

LIB

MIN

OTH

Salisbury

Prediction: Reform gain from CON

MP at 2024:	John Glen (CON)
County/Area:	Wiltshire (South West)
Electorate:	71,553
Turnout:	70.1%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	17,110	34.1%	24.1%
LAB	13,303	26.5%	16.7%
LIB	11,825	23.6%	23.2%
Reform	5,235	10.4%	25.1%
Green	2,115	4.2%	9.1%
OTH	585	1.2%	0.7%
MIN	0	0.0%	1.2%
CON Majority	3,807	7.6%	1.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

34%

LAB

LIB

28%

Reform

32%

Green

OTH

MIN

Scarborough and Whitby

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Alison Hume (LAB)
County/Area:	North Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	74,558
Turnout:	59.3%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	17,758	40.2%	20.8%
CON	12,350	27.9%	22.8%
Reform	9,657	21.8%	36.3%
LIB	1,899	4.3%	8.8%
Green	1,719	3.9%	9.5%
OTH	838	1.9%	0.5%
MIN	0	0.0%	1.4%
LAB Majority	5,408	12.2%	13.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

10%

CON

18%

Reform

72%

LIB

Green

OTH

MIN

Scunthorpe

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Nicholas Dakin (LAB)
County/Area:	Humber area (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	74,263
Turnout:	52.6%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	15,484	39.7%	20.0%
CON	11,942	30.6%	21.8%
Reform	8,163	20.9%	38.8%
OTH	1,302	3.3%	0.7%
Green	1,218	3.1%	9.4%
LIB	942	2.4%	7.3%
MIN	0	0.0%	2.0%
LAB Majority	3,542	9.1%	17.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

CON

14%

Reform

79%

OTH

Green

LIB

MIN

Sefton Central

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Bill Esterson (LAB)
County/Area:	Merseyside (North West)
Electorate:	74,282
Turnout:	63.9%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	26,772	56.4%	47.3%
CON	8,490	17.9%	5.4%
Reform	5,767	12.2%	38.7%
Green	3,294	6.9%	4.3%
LIB	2,630	5.5%	2.0%
OTH	496	1.0%	0.5%
MIN	0	0.0%	1.8%
LAB Majority	18,282	38.5%	8.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

68%

CON

Reform

30%

Green

LIB

OTH

MIN

Selby

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Keir Mather (LAB)
County/Area:	North Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	78,055
Turnout:	63.1%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	22,788	46.3%	32.6%
CON	12,593	25.6%	12.7%
Reform	9,565	19.4%	40.5%
Green	2,484	5.0%	6.9%
LIB	1,792	3.6%	4.8%
MIN	0	0.0%	2.3%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.3%
LAB Majority	10,195	20.7%	7.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

31%

CON

Reform

65%

Green

LIB

MIN

OTH

Sevenoaks

Prediction: Reform gain from CON

MP at 2024:	Laura Trott (CON)
County/Area:	Kent (South East)
Electorate:	73,708
Turnout:	67.7%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	18,328	36.7%	27.2%
LIB	12,888	25.8%	22.6%
Reform	9,341	18.7%	30.2%
LAB	6,802	13.6%	11.7%
Green	2,033	4.1%	7.3%
OTH	507	1.0%	0.4%
MIN	0	0.0%	0.7%
CON Majority	5,440	10.9%	3.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

41%

LIB

15%

Reform

42%

LAB

Green

OTH

MIN

Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Gill Furniss (LAB)
County/Area:	South Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	70,453
Turnout:	44.9%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,301	51.6%	22.3%
Green	4,701	14.9%	23.7%
CON	4,069	12.9%	10.8%
MIN	2,537	8.0%	5.1%
OTH	2,310	7.3%	2.5%
LIB	1,694	5.4%	8.3%
Reform	0	0.0%	27.3%
LAB Majority	11,600	36.7%	3.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

22%

Green

28%

CON

MIN

OTH

LIB

Reform

46%

Sheffield Central

Prediction: Green gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Abtisam Mohamed (LAB)
County/Area:	South Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	60,777
Turnout:	52.3%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,569	52.1%	20.0%
Green	8,283	26.0%	46.6%
CON	2,339	7.4%	7.4%
LIB	2,174	6.8%	9.1%
OTH	1,782	5.6%	1.8%
MIN	656	2.1%	4.5%
Reform	0	0.0%	10.8%
LAB Majority	8,286	26.1%	26.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

Green

98%

CON

LIB

OTH

MIN

Reform

Sheffield Hallam

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Olivia Blake (LAB)
County/Area:	South Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	73,033
Turnout:	70.7%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	23,875	46.3%	31.4%
LIB	15,686	30.4%	25.9%
CON	6,205	12.0%	10.6%
Green	4,491	8.7%	19.0%
OTH	1,063	2.1%	1.0%
MIN	281	0.5%	1.8%
Reform	0	0.0%	10.3%
LAB Majority	8,189	15.9%	5.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

60%

LIB

28%

CON

Green

OTH

MIN

Reform

Sheffield Heeley

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Louise Haigh (LAB)
County/Area:	South Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	73,359
Turnout:	52.4%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	21,230	55.2%	26.2%
Green	5,926	15.4%	23.3%
CON	5,242	13.6%	12.2%
LIB	3,863	10.0%	10.6%
OTH	1,591	4.1%	1.4%
MIN	594	1.5%	3.5%
Reform	0	0.0%	22.8%
LAB Majority	15,304	39.8%	2.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

42%

Green

27%

CON

LIB

OTH

MIN

Reform

27%

Sheffield South East

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Clive Betts (LAB)
County/Area:	South Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	74,194
Turnout:	48.2%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	18,710	52.3%	43.7%
CON	6,252	17.5%	5.1%
LIB	3,421	9.6%	2.5%
Green	3,158	8.8%	4.5%
OTH	2,777	7.8%	1.9%
MIN	1,453	4.1%	3.1%
Reform	0	0.0%	39.2%
LAB Majority	12,458	34.8%	4.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

41%

CON

LIB

Green

OTH

MIN

Reform

53%

Sherwood Forest

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Michelle Welsh (LAB)
County/Area:	Nottinghamshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	78,894
Turnout:	61.7%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	18,841	38.7%	20.1%
CON	13,398	27.5%	23.5%
Reform	11,320	23.3%	37.0%
Green	2,216	4.6%	10.4%
LIB	1,838	3.8%	7.4%
OTH	1,047	2.2%	0.5%
MIN	0	0.0%	1.2%
LAB Majority	5,443	11.2%	13.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

CON

22%

Reform

70%

Green

LIB

OTH

MIN

Shipley

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Anna Dixon (LAB)
County/Area:	West Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	74,130
Turnout:	65.2%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	21,738	45.0%	24.1%
CON	13,135	27.2%	22.9%
Reform	7,238	15.0%	24.8%
Green	3,605	7.5%	15.0%
LIB	1,341	2.8%	10.6%
OTH	977	2.0%	0.7%
MIN	269	0.6%	1.9%
LAB Majority	8,603	17.8%	0.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

32%

CON

28%

Reform

34%

Green

LIB

OTH

MIN

Shrewsbury

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Julia Buckley (LAB)
County/Area:	Shropshire (West Midlands)
Electorate:	76,633
Turnout:	67.3%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	22,932	44.5%	43.9%
CON	11,577	22.5%	7.2%
Reform	7,524	14.6%	38.2%
LIB	6,722	13.0%	4.5%
Green	2,387	4.6%	3.7%
OTH	418	0.8%	0.7%
MIN	0	0.0%	1.8%
LAB Majority	11,355	22.0%	5.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

51%

CON

Reform

40%

LIB

Green

OTH

MIN

Shropshire North

Prediction: LIB hold

MP at 2024:	Helen Morgan (LIB)
County/Area:	Shropshire (West Midlands)
Electorate:	77,594
Turnout:	63.9%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	26,214	52.9%	49.3%
CON	10,903	22.0%	5.8%
Reform	7,687	15.5%	38.8%
LAB	3,423	6.9%	1.9%
Green	1,234	2.5%	1.9%
OTH	133	0.3%	0.9%
MIN	0	0.0%	1.4%
LIB Majority	15,311	30.9%	10.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LIB

67%

CON

Reform

30%

LAB

Green

OTH

MIN

Shropshire South

Prediction: Reform gain from CON

MP at 2024:	Stuart Anderson (CON)
County/Area:	Shropshire (West Midlands)
Electorate:	76,723
Turnout:	67.3%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	17,628	34.1%	27.0%
LIB	16,004	31.0%	18.2%
Reform	9,171	17.8%	34.6%
LAB	6,939	13.4%	11.0%
Green	1,911	3.7%	7.5%
MIN	0	0.0%	1.0%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.6%
CON Majority	1,624	3.1%	7.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

33%

LIB

Reform

59%

LAB

Green

MIN

OTH

Sittingbourne and Sheppey

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Kevin McKenna (LAB)
County/Area:	Kent (South East)
Electorate:	79,067
Turnout:	51.9%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	11,919	29.1%	11.6%
CON	11,564	28.2%	29.8%
Reform	10,512	25.6%	42.9%
OTH	3,990	9.7%	1.4%
Green	1,692	4.1%	8.4%
LIB	1,321	3.2%	5.0%
MIN	0	0.0%	0.9%
LAB Majority	355	0.9%	13.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

CON

18%

Reform

81%

OTH

Green

LIB

MIN

Skipton and Ripon

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:	Julian Smith (CON)
County/Area:	North Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	79,251
Turnout:	67.4%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	18,833	35.2%	36.9%
LAB	17,183	32.1%	16.4%
Reform	8,516	15.9%	31.6%
LIB	4,194	7.8%	6.9%
Green	3,446	6.4%	6.7%
OTH	1,278	2.4%	0.4%
MIN	0	0.0%	1.2%
CON Majority	1,650	3.1%	5.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

52%

LAB

10%

Reform

38%

LIB

Green

OTH

MIN

Sleaford and North Hykeham

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:	Caroline Johnson (CON)
County/Area:	Lincolnshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	75,807
Turnout:	64.1%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	17,348	35.7%	40.8%
LAB	13,002	26.8%	9.4%
Reform	10,484	21.6%	39.7%
OTH	3,032	6.2%	0.7%
Green	2,435	5.0%	4.6%
LIB	2,264	4.7%	3.6%
MIN	0	0.0%	1.3%
CON Majority	4,346	8.9%	1.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

45%

LAB

Reform

53%

OTH

Green

LIB

MIN

Slough

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Tan Dhesi (LAB)
County/Area:	Berkshire (South East)
Electorate:	81,512
Turnout:	53.1%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	14,666	33.9%	14.9%
MIN	11,019	25.5%	20.6%
CON	7,457	17.2%	14.0%
Reform	3,352	7.7%	26.2%
OTH	2,851	6.6%	0.0%
LIB	2,060	4.8%	10.4%
Green	1,873	4.3%	14.0%
LAB Majority	3,647	8.4%	5.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

12%

MIN

12%

CON

Reform

57%

OTH

LIB

Green

Smethwick

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Gurinder Singh Josan (LAB)
County/Area:	Black Country (West Midlands)
Electorate:	72,863
Turnout:	48.2%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,858	48.0%	21.5%
Reform	5,670	16.1%	36.6%
CON	4,546	12.9%	10.5%
Green	2,741	7.8%	18.9%
MIN	2,449	7.0%	3.9%
OTH	1,833	5.2%	2.1%
LIB	1,018	2.9%	6.4%
LAB Majority	11,188	31.9%	15.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

14%

Reform

79%

CON

Green

MIN

OTH

LIB

Solihull West and Shirley

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:	Neil Shastri-Hurst (CON)
County/Area:	Coventry and Solihull (West Midlands)
Electorate:	71,813
Turnout:	65.3%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	16,284	34.7%	38.9%
LAB	11,664	24.9%	11.7%
LIB	7,916	16.9%	10.2%
Reform	7,149	15.3%	29.6%
Green	3,270	7.0%	7.4%
MIN	594	1.3%	1.8%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.4%
CON Majority	4,620	9.9%	9.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

49%

LAB

LIB

Reform

38%

Green

MIN

OTH

Somerset North

Prediction: CON gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Sadik Al-Hassan (LAB)
County/Area:	Bristol area (South West)
Electorate:	74,426
Turnout:	72.2%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	19,138	35.6%	19.5%
CON	18,499	34.4%	27.7%
LIB	7,121	13.2%	13.6%
Reform	5,602	10.4%	25.3%
Green	3,273	6.1%	12.2%
MIN	133	0.2%	1.5%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.4%
LAB Majority	639	1.2%	2.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

13%

CON

50%

LIB

Reform

30%

Green

MIN

OTH

Somerset North East and Hanham

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Dan Norris (LAB)
County/Area:	Bristol area (South West)
Electorate:	73,887
Turnout:	69.2%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	20,739	40.6%	23.6%
CON	15,420	30.2%	23.6%
Reform	7,424	14.5%	26.7%
LIB	3,878	7.6%	12.8%
Green	3,222	6.3%	11.8%
OTH	442	0.9%	0.6%
MIN	0	0.0%	0.9%
LAB Majority	5,319	10.4%	3.1% Pred Maj

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Result shown is the original general election result. Dan Norris is now Independent since being suspended following allegations of rape and child sex offences.

Chance of winning

LAB

27%

CON

31%

Reform

38%

LIB

Green

OTH

MIN

South Holland and The Deepings

Prediction: Reform gain from CON

MP at 2024:	John Hayes (CON)
County/Area:	Lincolnshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	78,473
Turnout:	58.5%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	17,462	38.0%	39.7%
Reform	10,606	23.1%	45.1%
LAB	9,086	19.8%	6.9%
OTH	5,031	11.0%	0.9%
LIB	1,945	4.2%	2.9%
Green	1,800	3.9%	3.4%
MIN	0	0.0%	1.1%
CON Majority	6,856	14.9%	5.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

36%

Reform

64%

LAB

OTH

LIB

Green

MIN

South Ribble

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Paul Andrew Foster (LAB)
County/Area:	Lancashire (North West)
Electorate:	73,420
Turnout:	63.6%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	19,840	42.5%	24.2%
CON	13,339	28.6%	21.7%
Reform	8,995	19.3%	32.7%
LIB	2,972	6.4%	10.4%
Green	1,574	3.4%	9.1%
MIN	0	0.0%	1.5%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.4%
LAB Majority	6,501	13.9%	8.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

25%

CON

13%

Reform

62%

LIB

Green

MIN

OTH

South Shields

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Emma Lewell-Buck (LAB)
County/Area:	Newcastle area (North East)
Electorate:	68,366
Turnout:	53.9%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	15,122	41.1%	17.2%
Reform	8,469	23.0%	41.0%
Green	5,433	14.8%	17.7%
CON	4,128	11.2%	13.8%
OTH	2,270	6.2%	1.2%
LIB	1,402	3.8%	6.7%
MIN	0	0.0%	2.5%
LAB Majority	6,653	18.1%	23.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

Reform

91%

Green

CON

OTH

LIB

MIN

Southampton Itchen

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Darren Paffey (LAB)
County/Area:	Hampshire (South East)
Electorate:	68,379
Turnout:	55.7%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	15,782	41.5%	21.8%
CON	9,677	25.4%	16.3%
Reform	6,853	18.0%	34.5%
Green	2,793	7.3%	15.2%
LIB	2,684	7.1%	9.2%
OTH	264	0.7%	0.6%
MIN	0	0.0%	2.4%
LAB Majority	6,105	16.0%	12.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

18%

CON

Reform

72%

Green

LIB

OTH

MIN

Southampton Test

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Satvir Kaur (LAB)
County/Area:	Hampshire (South East)
Electorate:	65,520
Turnout:	54.6%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	15,945	44.5%	20.2%
CON	6,612	18.5%	13.5%
Reform	5,261	14.7%	32.4%
Green	3,594	10.0%	22.2%
LIB	3,252	9.1%	8.6%
MIN	775	2.2%	2.1%
OTH	366	1.0%	1.0%
LAB Majority	9,333	26.1%	10.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

13%

CON

Reform

67%

Green

16%

LIB

MIN

OTH

Southend East and Rochford

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Bayo Alaba (LAB)
County/Area:	Essex (Anglia)
Electorate:	70,217
Turnout:	56.5%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	15,395	38.8%	19.1%
CON	11,368	28.7%	22.8%
Reform	7,214	18.2%	33.5%
Green	2,716	6.8%	14.4%
LIB	2,269	5.7%	8.6%
OTH	694	1.8%	0.6%
MIN	0	0.0%	0.9%
LAB Majority	4,027	10.2%	10.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

CON

23%

Reform

65%

Green

LIB

OTH

MIN

Southend West and Leigh

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	David Edmund Burton-Sampson (LAB)
County/Area:	Essex (Anglia)
Electorate:	75,154
Turnout:	62.5%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,739	35.6%	19.7%
CON	14,790	31.5%	21.0%
Reform	8,273	17.6%	35.3%
Green	3,262	6.9%	12.0%
LIB	3,174	6.8%	9.8%
OTH	730	1.6%	0.8%
MIN	0	0.0%	1.4%
LAB Majority	1,949	4.1%	14.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

CON

17%

Reform

72%

Green

LIB

OTH

MIN

Southgate and Wood Green

Prediction: Green gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Bambos Charalambous (LAB)
County/Area:	Enfield (London)
Electorate:	77,542
Turnout:	58.9%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	23,337	51.1%	25.0%
CON	8,037	17.6%	13.4%
Green	5,607	12.3%	25.6%
LIB	3,925	8.6%	12.0%
Reform	3,147	6.9%	21.4%
MIN	833	1.8%	1.7%
OTH	785	1.7%	0.9%
LAB Majority	15,300	33.5%	0.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

36%

CON

Green

40%

LIB

Reform

19%

MIN

OTH

Southport

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Patrick Brian Hurley (LAB)
County/Area:	Merseyside (North West)
Electorate:	73,641
Turnout:	61.2%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	17,252	38.3%	24.6%
CON	11,463	25.4%	17.8%
Reform	7,395	16.4%	32.4%
LIB	5,868	13.0%	13.7%
Green	2,159	4.8%	8.3%
OTH	922	2.0%	0.6%
MIN	0	0.0%	2.5%
LAB Majority	5,789	12.8%	7.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

30%

CON

Reform

61%

LIB

Green

OTH

MIN

Spelthorne

Prediction: Reform gain from CON

MP at 2024:	Lincoln Jopp (CON)
County/Area:	Surrey (South East)
Electorate:	73,782
Turnout:	62.6%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	14,038	30.4%	28.7%
LAB	12,448	27.0%	14.0%
LIB	8,710	18.9%	15.5%
Reform	8,284	17.9%	30.7%
Green	2,413	5.2%	9.8%
OTH	273	0.6%	0.5%
MIN	0	0.0%	0.7%
CON Majority	1,590	3.4%	2.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

37%

LAB

LIB

Reform

50%

Green

OTH

MIN

Spen Valley

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Kim Leadbeater (LAB)
County/Area:	West Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	72,642
Turnout:	56.5%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,076	39.2%	20.7%
Reform	9,888	24.1%	36.4%
CON	9,859	24.0%	17.3%
Green	2,284	5.6%	9.6%
OTH	1,526	3.7%	1.0%
LIB	1,425	3.5%	11.6%
MIN	0	0.0%	3.3%
LAB Majority	6,188	15.1%	15.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

15%

Reform

78%

CON

Green

OTH

LIB

MIN

St Albans

Prediction: LIB hold

MP at 2024:	Daisy Cooper (LIB)
County/Area:	Hertfordshire (Anglia)
Electorate:	72,739
Turnout:	71.0%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	29,222	56.6%	40.4%
CON	9,388	18.2%	15.5%
LAB	5,189	10.1%	11.3%
Reform	4,336	8.4%	17.1%
Green	3,272	6.3%	14.1%
OTH	207	0.4%	0.8%
MIN	0	0.0%	0.8%
LIB Majority	19,834	38.4%	23.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LIB

94%

CON

LAB

Reform

Green

OTH

MIN

St Austell and Newquay

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Noah Law (LAB)
County/Area:	Cornwall (South West)
Electorate:	76,140
Turnout:	61.4%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	15,958	34.1%	15.7%
CON	13,488	28.9%	28.1%
Reform	9,212	19.7%	32.3%
LIB	4,805	10.3%	8.6%
Green	2,337	5.0%	13.6%
OTH	932	2.0%	0.6%
MIN	0	0.0%	0.9%
LAB Majority	2,470	5.3%	4.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

CON

36%

Reform

55%

LIB

Green

OTH

MIN

St Helens North

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	David Baines (LAB)
County/Area:	Merseyside (North West)
Electorate:	75,483
Turnout:	53.6%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	21,284	52.6%	31.5%
Reform	9,115	22.5%	46.1%
CON	4,507	11.1%	7.0%
Green	3,495	8.6%	8.8%
LIB	1,799	4.4%	3.6%
OTH	274	0.7%	0.5%
MIN	0	0.0%	2.5%
LAB Majority	12,169	30.1%	14.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

16%

Reform

83%

CON

Green

LIB

OTH

MIN

St Helens South and Whiston

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Marie Rimmer (LAB)
County/Area:	Merseyside (North West)
Electorate:	71,569
Turnout:	53.1%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	18,919	49.7%	36.2%
Reform	6,974	18.3%	44.0%
OTH	4,244	11.2%	1.9%
CON	3,057	8.0%	4.9%
Green	2,642	6.9%	6.3%
LIB	2,199	5.8%	3.5%
MIN	0	0.0%	3.0%
LAB Majority	11,945	31.4%	7.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

22%

Reform

77%

OTH

CON

Green

LIB

MIN

St Ives

Prediction: LIB hold

MP at 2024:	Andrew George (LIB)
County/Area:	Cornwall (South West)
Electorate:	69,980
Turnout:	68.7%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	25,033	52.0%	33.1%
CON	11,247	23.4%	20.5%
Reform	6,492	13.5%	25.1%
LAB	2,788	5.8%	9.2%
Green	1,797	3.7%	10.2%
OTH	749	1.6%	0.8%
MIN	0	0.0%	1.0%
LIB Majority	13,786	28.7%	8.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LIB

73%

CON

Reform

18%

LAB

Green

OTH

MIN

St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire

Prediction: LIB hold

MP at 2024:	Ian Sollom (LIB)
County/Area:	Cambridgeshire (Anglia)
Electorate:	78,115
Turnout:	67.7%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	19,517	36.9%	28.8%
CON	14,896	28.2%	25.7%
LAB	6,918	13.1%	11.6%
Reform	5,673	10.7%	19.9%
OTH	3,215	6.1%	1.3%
Green	2,663	5.0%	12.0%
MIN	0	0.0%	0.7%
LIB Majority	4,621	8.7%	3.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LIB

54%

CON

30%

LAB

Reform

13%

OTH

Green

MIN

Stafford

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Leigh Ingham (LAB)
County/Area:	Staffordshire (West Midlands)
Electorate:	70,608
Turnout:	65.2%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	18,531	40.3%	20.4%
CON	13,936	30.3%	24.6%
Reform	8,612	18.7%	31.1%
Green	2,856	6.2%	12.8%
LIB	1,676	3.6%	9.2%
OTH	398	0.9%	0.6%
MIN	0	0.0%	1.2%
LAB Majority	4,595	10.0%	6.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

11%

CON

34%

Reform

54%

Green

LIB

OTH

MIN

Staffordshire Moorlands

Prediction: Reform gain from CON

MP at 2024:	Karen Bradley (CON)
County/Area:	Staffordshire (West Midlands)
Electorate:	69,892
Turnout:	62.0%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	15,310	35.4%	29.9%
LAB	14,135	32.6%	15.9%
Reform	10,065	23.2%	42.0%
Green	2,293	5.3%	6.7%
LIB	1,499	3.5%	4.3%
MIN	0	0.0%	1.0%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.3%
CON Majority	1,175	2.7%	12.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

23%

LAB

Reform

75%

Green

LIB

MIN

OTH

Stalybridge and Hyde

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Jonathan Reynolds (LAB)
County/Area:	Eastern Manchester (North West)
Electorate:	72,265
Turnout:	51.5%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,320	43.8%	22.7%
Reform	7,781	20.9%	42.0%
CON	6,872	18.5%	12.7%
Green	2,745	7.4%	12.9%
MIN	1,227	3.3%	2.6%
OTH	1,214	3.3%	1.0%
LIB	1,080	2.9%	5.9%
LAB Majority	8,539	22.9%	19.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

10%

Reform

87%

CON

Green

MIN

OTH

LIB

Stevenage

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Kevin Bonavia (LAB)
County/Area:	Hertfordshire (Anglia)
Electorate:	70,086
Turnout:	60.9%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	17,698	41.4%	32.8%
CON	11,080	25.9%	12.2%
Reform	7,667	17.9%	38.4%
LIB	3,467	8.1%	5.6%
Green	2,655	6.2%	8.6%
OTH	148	0.3%	0.5%
MIN	0	0.0%	1.8%
LAB Majority	6,618	15.5%	5.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

32%

CON

Reform

61%

LIB

Green

OTH

MIN

Stockport

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Navendu Mishra (LAB)
County/Area:	Eastern Manchester (North West)
Electorate:	76,625
Turnout:	57.0%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	21,787	49.9%	24.3%
Reform	6,517	14.9%	30.5%
CON	4,967	11.4%	11.4%
Green	4,865	11.1%	21.3%
LIB	3,724	8.5%	9.1%
MIN	1,630	3.7%	2.5%
OTH	193	0.4%	0.9%
LAB Majority	15,270	35.0%	6.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

32%

Reform

53%

CON

Green

13%

LIB

MIN

OTH

Stockton North

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Chris McDonald (LAB)
County/Area:	Teesside (North East)
Electorate:	70,242
Turnout:	53.2%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	17,128	45.8%	33.4%
Reform	9,189	24.6%	47.7%
CON	8,028	21.5%	7.3%
Green	1,923	5.1%	4.8%
LIB	1,133	3.0%	2.7%
MIN	0	0.0%	3.7%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.4%
LAB Majority	7,939	21.2%	14.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

16%

Reform

82%

CON

Green

LIB

MIN

OTH

Stockton West

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:	Matt Vickers (CON)
County/Area:	Teesside (North East)
Electorate:	71,868
Turnout:	67.7%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	20,372	41.9%	39.4%
LAB	18,233	37.5%	16.7%
Reform	6,833	14.0%	30.4%
Green	1,477	3.0%	6.0%
LIB	1,203	2.5%	5.8%
OTH	520	1.1%	0.3%
MIN	0	0.0%	1.4%
CON Majority	2,139	4.4%	8.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

65%

LAB

Reform

27%

Green

LIB

OTH

MIN

Stoke-on-Trent Central

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Gareth Snell (LAB)
County/Area:	Staffordshire (West Midlands)
Electorate:	73,693
Turnout:	47.9%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	14,950	42.4%	16.9%
Reform	8,541	24.2%	45.9%
CON	6,221	17.6%	13.0%
OTH	2,875	8.1%	1.6%
Green	1,703	4.8%	14.1%
LIB	999	2.8%	6.0%
MIN	0	0.0%	2.4%
LAB Majority	6,409	18.2%	29.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

Reform

95%

CON

OTH

Green

LIB

MIN

Stoke-on-Trent North

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	David Williams (LAB)
County/Area:	Staffordshire (West Midlands)
Electorate:	69,790
Turnout:	51.8%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	14,579	40.3%	18.9%
CON	9,497	26.3%	16.7%
Reform	8,824	24.4%	44.0%
Green	1,236	3.4%	9.3%
OTH	1,103	3.1%	0.9%
LIB	911	2.5%	7.4%
MIN	0	0.0%	2.8%
LAB Majority	5,082	14.1%	25.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

CON

Reform

92%

Green

OTH

LIB

MIN

Stoke-on-Trent South

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Allison Gardner (LAB)
County/Area:	Staffordshire (West Midlands)
Electorate:	68,263
Turnout:	60.0%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	14,221	34.7%	15.0%
CON	13,594	33.2%	25.1%
Reform	8,851	21.6%	41.1%
LIB	1,577	3.9%	8.9%
OTH	1,492	3.6%	1.1%
Green	1,207	2.9%	7.0%
MIN	0	0.0%	1.8%
LAB Majority	627	1.5%	16.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

CON

17%

Reform

81%

LIB

OTH

Green

MIN

Stone, Great Wyrley and Penkridge

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:	Gavin Williamson (CON)
County/Area:	Staffordshire (West Midlands)
Electorate:	71,561
Turnout:	59.8%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	19,880	46.5%	38.8%
LAB	14,414	33.7%	17.3%
OTH	3,288	7.7%	1.0%
LIB	2,952	6.9%	8.4%
Green	2,236	5.2%	7.6%
Reform	0	0.0%	25.9%
MIN	0	0.0%	0.9%
CON Majority	5,466	12.8%	12.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

84%

LAB

OTH

LIB

Green

Reform

12%

MIN

Stourbridge

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Cat Eccles (LAB)
County/Area:	Black Country (West Midlands)
Electorate:	68,311
Turnout:	58.4%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	15,338	38.5%	18.7%
CON	12,265	30.8%	20.5%
Reform	7,869	19.7%	39.4%
Green	1,732	4.3%	9.2%
LIB	1,607	4.0%	9.0%
MIN	1,067	2.7%	2.7%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.6%
LAB Majority	3,073	7.7%	18.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

CON

11%

Reform

83%

Green

LIB

MIN

OTH

Stratford and Bow

Prediction: Green gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Uma Kumaran (LAB)
County/Area:	Newham (London)
Electorate:	80,560
Turnout:	53.9%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	19,145	44.1%	23.7%
Green	7,511	17.3%	33.6%
OTH	6,372	14.7%	4.2%
MIN	3,274	7.5%	3.9%
CON	3,114	7.2%	7.5%
Reform	2,093	4.8%	17.6%
LIB	1,926	4.4%	9.5%
LAB Majority	11,634	26.8%	9.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

17%

Green

75%

OTH

MIN

CON

Reform

LIB

Stratford-on-Avon

Prediction: LIB hold

MP at 2024:	Manuela Perteghella (LIB)
County/Area:	Warwickshire (West Midlands)
Electorate:	75,714
Turnout:	69.9%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	23,450	44.3%	32.5%
CON	16,328	30.8%	22.3%
Reform	7,753	14.6%	28.1%
LAB	3,753	7.1%	9.1%
Green	1,197	2.3%	6.3%
OTH	478	0.9%	0.9%
MIN	0	0.0%	0.9%
LIB Majority	7,122	13.4%	4.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LIB

61%

CON

12%

Reform

26%

LAB

Green

OTH

MIN

Streatham and Croydon North

Prediction: Green gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Steve Reed (LAB)
County/Area:	Lambeth (London)
Electorate:	82,829
Turnout:	53.8%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	23,232	52.1%	26.3%
Green	7,629	17.1%	32.3%
CON	5,328	12.0%	10.7%
LIB	5,031	11.3%	10.5%
Reform	1,994	4.5%	17.4%
MIN	910	2.0%	1.9%
OTH	429	1.0%	1.0%
LAB Majority	15,603	35.0%	6.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

30%

Green

64%

CON

LIB

Reform

MIN

OTH

Stretford and Urmston

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Andrew Western (LAB)
County/Area:	Central Manchester (North West)
Electorate:	75,153
Turnout:	61.2%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	22,642	49.2%	41.0%
CON	6,492	14.1%	6.3%
Reform	5,485	11.9%	32.9%
MIN	4,461	9.7%	4.6%
Green	4,398	9.6%	10.5%
LIB	2,216	4.8%	3.5%
OTH	308	0.7%	1.1%
LAB Majority	16,150	35.1%	8.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

54%

CON

Reform

36%

MIN

Green

LIB

OTH

Stroud

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Simon Joseph Opher (LAB)
County/Area:	Gloucestershire (South West)
Electorate:	77,912
Turnout:	70.9%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	25,607	46.4%	29.6%
CON	14,219	25.7%	17.4%
Reform	6,329	11.5%	27.2%
Green	5,729	10.4%	14.8%
LIB	2,913	5.3%	8.3%
OTH	424	0.8%	0.6%
MIN	0	0.0%	2.1%
LAB Majority	11,388	20.6%	2.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

47%

CON

13%

Reform

33%

Green

LIB

OTH

MIN

Suffolk Central and North Ipswich

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:	Patrick Spencer (CON)
County/Area:	Suffolk (Anglia)
Electorate:	73,046
Turnout:	63.6%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	15,144	32.6%	38.5%
LAB	10,854	23.4%	7.5%
Reform	8,806	19.0%	37.3%
Green	5,652	12.2%	8.1%
LIB	5,407	11.6%	6.1%
OTH	560	1.2%	0.8%
MIN	0	0.0%	1.7%
CON Majority	4,290	9.2%	1.2% Pred Maj

Seat details with ward map, results and predictions. Top

Result shown is the original general election result. Patrick Spencer is now Independent since being suspended after being charged with two counts of sexual assault.

Chance of winning

CON

34%

LAB

Reform

62%

Green

LIB

OTH

MIN

Suffolk Coastal

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Jenny Riddell-Carpenter (LAB)
County/Area:	Suffolk (Anglia)
Electorate:	74,522
Turnout:	66.4%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	15,672	31.7%	17.8%
CON	14,602	29.5%	27.4%
Reform	7,850	15.9%	28.9%
LIB	6,947	14.0%	13.1%
Green	4,380	8.9%	11.4%
MIN	0	0.0%	0.9%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.5%
LAB Majority	1,070	2.2%	1.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

11%

CON

40%

Reform

46%

LIB

Green

MIN

OTH

Suffolk South

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:	James Cartlidge (CON)
County/Area:	Suffolk (Anglia)
Electorate:	73,385
Turnout:	66.5%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	16,082	33.0%	39.6%
LAB	13,035	26.7%	8.4%
Reform	9,252	19.0%	37.5%
LIB	6,424	13.2%	6.0%
Green	4,008	8.2%	6.7%
MIN	0	0.0%	1.1%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.6%
CON Majority	3,047	6.2%	2.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

40%

LAB

Reform

56%

LIB

Green

MIN

OTH

Suffolk West

Prediction: Reform gain from CON

MP at 2024:	Nick Timothy (CON)
County/Area:	Suffolk (Anglia)
Electorate:	77,149
Turnout:	59.8%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	15,814	34.3%	37.3%
LAB	12,567	27.2%	7.9%
Reform	9,623	20.8%	42.3%
LIB	4,284	9.3%	4.5%
Green	2,910	6.3%	6.2%
OTH	963	2.1%	0.7%
MIN	0	0.0%	1.1%
CON Majority	3,247	7.0%	5.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

28%

LAB

Reform

71%

LIB

Green

OTH

MIN

Sunderland Central

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Lewis Atkinson (LAB)
County/Area:	Newcastle area (North East)
Electorate:	76,145
Turnout:	52.5%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,852	42.2%	20.6%
Reform	10,779	27.0%	42.7%
CON	5,731	14.3%	12.3%
LIB	3,602	9.0%	9.0%
Green	2,993	7.5%	12.0%
MIN	0	0.0%	2.8%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.6%
LAB Majority	6,073	15.2%	22.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

Reform

90%

CON

LIB

Green

MIN

OTH

Surrey East

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:	Claire Coutinho (CON)
County/Area:	Surrey (South East)
Electorate:	73,307
Turnout:	67.1%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	17,502	35.6%	44.6%
LAB	10,052	20.4%	8.8%
LIB	8,833	18.0%	6.1%
Reform	8,380	17.0%	33.1%
Green	2,957	6.0%	6.2%
OTH	1,472	3.0%	0.5%
MIN	0	0.0%	0.6%
CON Majority	7,450	15.1%	11.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

66%

LAB

LIB

Reform

31%

Green

OTH

MIN

Surrey Heath

Prediction: LIB hold

MP at 2024:	Al Pinkerton (LIB)
County/Area:	Surrey (South East)
Electorate:	71,934
Turnout:	66.4%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	21,387	44.8%	31.8%
CON	15,747	33.0%	23.3%
Reform	6,252	13.1%	27.0%
LAB	3,148	6.6%	9.2%
Green	1,162	2.4%	7.2%
OTH	92	0.2%	0.7%
MIN	0	0.0%	0.8%
LIB Majority	5,640	11.8%	4.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LIB

59%

CON

15%

Reform

26%

LAB

Green

OTH

MIN

Sussex Mid

Prediction: LIB hold

MP at 2024:	Alison Bennett (LIB)
County/Area:	West Sussex (South East)
Electorate:	75,969
Turnout:	70.2%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	21,136	39.6%	32.7%
CON	14,474	27.1%	22.5%
LAB	9,397	17.6%	14.2%
Reform	5,921	11.1%	19.0%
Green	2,048	3.8%	10.3%
OTH	352	0.7%	0.7%
MIN	0	0.0%	0.7%
LIB Majority	6,662	12.5%	10.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LIB

76%

CON

14%

LAB

Reform

Green

OTH

MIN

Sussex Weald

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:	Nus Ghani (CON)
County/Area:	East Sussex (South East)
Electorate:	72,897
Turnout:	67.5%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	16,758	34.1%	35.7%
LIB	9,916	20.2%	11.2%
Reform	8,920	18.1%	35.3%
LAB	8,239	16.8%	8.6%
Green	3,762	7.7%	7.1%
OTH	1,580	3.2%	1.1%
MIN	0	0.0%	1.1%
CON Majority	6,842	13.9%	0.4% Pred Maj

Seat details with ward map, results and predictions. Top

Chance of winning

CON

41%

LIB

Reform

53%

LAB

Green

OTH

MIN

Sutton and Cheam

Prediction: LIB hold

MP at 2024:	Luke Taylor (LIB)
County/Area:	Sutton (London)
Electorate:	72,302
Turnout:	65.8%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	17,576	36.9%	34.8%
CON	13,775	28.9%	22.1%
LAB	8,430	17.7%	12.6%
Reform	5,787	12.2%	18.7%
Green	1,721	3.6%	10.3%
OTH	317	0.7%	0.7%
MIN	0	0.0%	0.7%
LIB Majority	3,801	8.0%	12.7% Pred Maj

Seat details with ward map, results and predictions. Top

Chance of winning

LIB

82%

CON

11%

LAB

Reform

Green

OTH

MIN

Sutton Coldfield

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:	Andrew Mitchell (CON)
County/Area:	Birmingham (West Midlands)
Electorate:	74,080
Turnout:	65.2%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	18,502	38.3%	37.3%
LAB	15,959	33.0%	15.6%
Reform	8,213	17.0%	30.5%
LIB	2,587	5.4%	7.9%
Green	2,419	5.0%	7.1%
MIN	653	1.4%	1.2%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.4%
CON Majority	2,543	5.3%	6.8% Pred Maj

Seat details with ward map, results and predictions. Top

Chance of winning

CON

54%

LAB

10%

Reform

36%

LIB

Green

MIN

OTH

Swindon North

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Will Stone (LAB)
County/Area:	Wiltshire (South West)
Electorate:	73,238
Turnout:	60.3%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	17,930	40.6%	22.0%
CON	13,827	31.3%	19.2%
Reform	7,557	17.1%	35.7%
Green	2,366	5.4%	12.9%
LIB	2,086	4.7%	7.7%
OTH	399	0.9%	0.7%
MIN	0	0.0%	1.9%
LAB Majority	4,103	9.3%	13.7% Pred Maj

Seat details with ward map, results and predictions. Top

Chance of winning

LAB

17%

CON

Reform

73%

Green

LIB

OTH

MIN

Swindon South

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Heidi Alexander (LAB)
County/Area:	Wiltshire (South West)
Electorate:	72,596
Turnout:	61.7%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	21,676	48.4%	29.2%
CON	12,070	26.9%	18.1%
Reform	6,194	13.8%	29.2%
Green	2,539	5.7%	14.4%
LIB	1,843	4.1%	7.0%
OTH	472	1.1%	0.6%
MIN	0	0.0%	1.4%
LAB Majority	9,606	21.4%	0.0% Pred Maj

Seat details with ward map, results and predictions. Top

Chance of winning

LAB

43%

CON

14%

Reform

38%

Green

LIB

OTH

MIN