Constituency List: England R-S

Rayleigh and Wickford
County/Area: Essex (Essex)
MP: Mark Francois (CON)
Electorate: 75,905
Turnout: 68.96%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	30,257	57.81%	58.42%
LIB	7,919	15.13%	5.07%
LAB	7,577	14.48%	22.39%
OTH	6,590	12.59%	14.12%
CON Majority	22,338	42.68%	Pred Maj 36.04%

Chance of winning

CON

97.2%

LIB

0.0%

LAB

2.7%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Reading East
County/Area: Berkshire (South)
MP: Rob Wilson (CON)
Electorate: 74,922
Turnout: 66.72%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	21,269	42.55%	43.33%
LIB	13,664	27.34%	14.65%
LAB	12,729	25.47%	35.45%
OTH	2,323	4.65%	6.58%
CON Majority	7,605	15.21%	Pred Maj 7.88%

Chance of winning

CON

67.6%

LIB

0.8%

LAB

31.3%

OTH

0.3%

Top

Reading West
County/Area: Berkshire (South)
MP: Alok Sharma (CON)
Electorate: 72,118
Turnout: 65.91%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	20,523	43.18%	43.96%
LAB	14,519	30.55%	40.53%
LIB	9,546	20.08%	7.40%
OTH	2,942	6.19%	8.12%
CON Majority	6,004	12.63%	Pred Maj 3.43%

Chance of winning

CON

56.8%

LAB

42.9%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.3%

Top

Redcar
County/Area: Teeside (North)
MP: Ian Swales (LIB)
Electorate: 67,125
Turnout: 62.51%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	18,955	45.17%	31.52%
LAB	13,741	32.75%	43.48%
CON	5,790	13.80%	14.64%
OTH	3,477	8.29%	10.36%
LIB Majority	5,214	12.43%	Pred Maj 11.96%

Chance of winning

LIB

18.3%

LAB

75.4%

CON

5.0%

OTH

1.3%

Top

LAB Gain

Redditch
County/Area: Hereford and Worcestershire (Severn)
MP: Karen Lumley (CON)
Electorate: 68,550
Turnout: 64.21%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	19,138	43.48%	44.22%
LAB	13,317	30.25%	39.82%
LIB	7,750	17.61%	5.45%
OTH	3,813	8.66%	10.51%
CON Majority	5,821	13.22%	Pred Maj 4.41%

Chance of winning

CON

57.9%

LAB

41.7%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.4%

Top

Reigate
County/Area: Surrey (South)
MP: Crispin Blunt (CON)
Electorate: 71,604
Turnout: 69.80%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	26,688	53.40%	54.18%
LIB	13,097	26.21%	13.52%
LAB	5,672	11.35%	21.33%
OTH	4,521	9.05%	10.97%
CON Majority	13,591	27.19%	Pred Maj 32.85%

Chance of winning

CON

95.8%

LIB

0.2%

LAB

3.9%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Ribble South
County/Area: Lancashire (Lancashire)
MP: Lorraine Fullbrook (CON)
Electorate: 75,822
Turnout: 67.87%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	23,396	45.47%	46.07%
LAB	17,842	34.67%	42.38%
LIB	7,271	14.13%	4.33%
OTH	2,949	5.73%	7.22%
CON Majority	5,554	10.79%	Pred Maj 3.69%

Chance of winning

CON

56.3%

LAB

43.6%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Ribble Valley
County/Area: Lancashire (Lancashire)
MP: Nigel Evans (CON)
Electorate: 78,068
Turnout: 66.98%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	26,298	50.30%	51.15%
LAB	11,529	22.05%	32.96%
LIB	10,732	20.53%	6.66%
OTH	3,728	7.13%	9.24%
CON Majority	14,769	28.25%	Pred Maj 18.19%

Chance of winning

CON

83.8%

LAB

15.9%

LIB

0.1%

OTH

0.2%

Top

Richmond
County/Area: North Yorkshire (Yorkshire)
MP: William Hague (CON)
Electorate: 79,478
Turnout: 67.20%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	33,541	62.80%	63.57%
LIB	10,205	19.11%	6.51%
LAB	8,150	15.26%	25.17%
OTH	1,516	2.84%	4.75%
CON Majority	23,336	43.69%	Pred Maj 38.40%

Chance of winning

CON

98.0%

LIB

0.0%

LAB

2.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Richmond Park
County/Area: Richmond Upon Thames (South London)
MP: Zac Goldsmith (CON)
Electorate: 77,060
Turnout: 76.91%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	29,461	49.71%	50.60%
LIB	25,370	42.81%	28.34%
LAB	2,979	5.03%	16.41%
OTH	1,458	2.46%	4.66%
CON Majority	4,091	6.90%	Pred Maj 22.26%

Chance of winning

CON

89.8%

LIB

6.0%

LAB

3.9%

OTH

0.3%

Top

Rochdale
County/Area: Eastern Manchester (Greater Manchester)
MP: Simon Danczuk (LAB)
Electorate: 78,952
Turnout: 58.15%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,699	36.38%	47.29%
LIB	15,810	34.44%	20.57%
CON	8,305	18.09%	18.94%
OTH	5,093	11.09%	13.20%
LAB Majority	889	1.94%	Pred Maj 26.71%

Chance of winning

LAB

88.3%

LIB

3.1%

CON

7.2%

OTH

1.4%

Top

Rochester and Strood
County/Area: Kent (South East)
MP: Mark Reckless (CON)
Electorate: 73,882
Turnout: 64.93%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	23,604	49.20%	49.84%
LAB	13,651	28.46%	36.57%
LIB	7,800	16.26%	5.94%
OTH	2,916	6.08%	7.65%
CON Majority	9,953	20.75%	Pred Maj 13.26%

Chance of winning

CON

78.7%

LAB

21.2%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Rochford and Southend East
County/Area: Essex (Essex)
MP: James Duddridge (CON)
Electorate: 71,080
Turnout: 58.57%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	19,509	46.86%	47.65%
LAB	8,459	20.32%	30.47%
LIB	8,084	19.42%	6.51%
OTH	5,579	13.40%	15.36%
CON Majority	11,050	26.54%	Pred Maj 17.18%

Chance of winning

CON

82.2%

LAB

17.1%

LIB

0.1%

OTH

0.6%

Top

Romford
County/Area: Havering (North London)
MP: Andrew Rosindell (CON)
Electorate: 71,193
Turnout: 65.29%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	26,031	56.00%	56.54%
LAB	9,077	19.53%	26.35%
LIB	5,572	11.99%	3.32%
OTH	3,363	7.24%	8.55%
MIN	2,438	5.25%	5.25%
CON Majority	16,954	36.48%	Pred Maj 30.19%

Chance of winning

CON

95.5%

LAB

4.5%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

MIN

0.0%

Top

Romsey and Southampton North
County/Area: Hampshire (South)
MP: Caroline Nokes (CON)
Electorate: 66,901
Turnout: 73.15%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	24,345	49.75%	50.52%
LIB	20,189	41.25%	28.56%
LAB	3,116	6.37%	16.35%
OTH	1,289	2.63%	4.56%
CON Majority	4,156	8.49%	Pred Maj 21.96%

Chance of winning

CON

92.4%

LIB

4.6%

LAB

2.9%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Rossendale and Darwen
County/Area: Lancashire (Lancashire)
MP: Jake Berry (CON)
Electorate: 73,003
Turnout: 64.56%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	19,691	41.78%	42.55%
LAB	15,198	32.25%	42.13%
LIB	8,541	18.12%	5.56%
OTH	3,698	7.85%	9.76%
CON Majority	4,493	9.53%	Pred Maj 0.42%

Chance of winning

CON

48.8%

LAB

50.7%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.5%

Top

Rother Valley
County/Area: South Yorkshire (Humberside)
MP: Kevin Barron (LAB)
Electorate: 72,841
Turnout: 64.19%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	19,147	40.95%	49.94%
CON	13,281	28.40%	29.10%
LIB	8,111	17.35%	5.91%
OTH	6,219	13.30%	15.04%
LAB Majority	5,866	12.55%	Pred Maj 20.84%

Chance of winning

LAB

89.2%

CON

10.3%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.5%

Top

Rotherham
County/Area: South Yorkshire (Humberside)
MP: Denis MacShane (LAB)
Electorate: 63,565
Turnout: 59.00%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,741	44.64%	52.92%
CON	6,279	16.74%	17.39%
LIB	5,994	15.98%	5.45%
OTH	4,586	12.23%	13.83%
MIN	3,906	10.41%	10.41%
LAB Majority	10,462	27.89%	Pred Maj 35.54%

Chance of winning

LAB

98.2%

CON

1.6%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.2%

MIN

0.0%

Top

Rugby
County/Area: Warwickshire (East Midlands)
MP: Mark Pawsey (CON)
Electorate: 68,914
Turnout: 68.88%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	20,901	44.03%	44.85%
LAB	14,901	31.39%	41.89%
LIB	9,434	19.87%	6.53%
OTH	2,232	4.70%	6.73%
CON Majority	6,000	12.64%	Pred Maj 2.96%

Chance of winning

CON

56.7%

LAB

43.0%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.3%

Top

Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner
County/Area: Hillingdon (South London)
MP: Nick Hurd (CON)
Electorate: 70,873
Turnout: 70.84%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	28,866	57.50%	58.23%
LAB	9,806	19.53%	28.99%
LIB	8,345	16.62%	4.60%
OTH	3,188	6.35%	8.18%
CON Majority	19,060	37.96%	Pred Maj 29.24%

Chance of winning

CON

94.8%

LAB

5.1%

LIB

0.1%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Runnymede and Weybridge
County/Area: Surrey (South)
MP: Philip Hammond (CON)
Electorate: 72,566
Turnout: 66.35%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	26,915	55.90%	56.68%
LIB	10,406	21.61%	8.92%
LAB	6,446	13.39%	23.37%
OTH	4,383	9.10%	11.03%
CON Majority	16,509	34.29%	Pred Maj 33.31%

Chance of winning

CON

96.1%

LIB

0.1%

LAB

3.7%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Rushcliffe
County/Area: Nottinghamshire (East Midlands)
MP: Kenneth Clarke (CON)
Electorate: 72,955
Turnout: 73.59%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	27,470	51.17%	51.99%
LIB	11,659	21.72%	8.28%
LAB	11,128	20.73%	31.30%
OTH	3,430	6.39%	8.43%
CON Majority	15,811	29.45%	Pred Maj 20.70%

Chance of winning

CON

88.2%

LIB

0.1%

LAB

11.6%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Rutland and Melton
County/Area: Leicestershire (East Midlands)
MP: Alan Duncan (CON)
Electorate: 77,185
Turnout: 71.54%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	28,228	51.12%	51.94%
LIB	14,228	25.77%	12.33%
LAB	7,893	14.29%	24.86%
OTH	4,871	8.82%	10.86%
CON Majority	14,000	25.35%	Pred Maj 27.08%

Chance of winning

CON

92.7%

LIB

0.3%

LAB

6.8%

OTH

0.2%

Top

Saffron Walden
County/Area: Essex (Essex)
MP: Sir Alan Haselhurst (CON)
Electorate: 76,035
Turnout: 71.51%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	30,155	55.46%	56.28%
LIB	14,913	27.43%	14.14%
LAB	5,288	9.73%	20.18%
OTH	4,013	7.38%	9.40%
CON Majority	15,242	28.03%	Pred Maj 36.10%

Chance of winning

CON

97.0%

LIB

0.2%

LAB

2.7%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Salford and Eccles
County/Area: Central Manchester (Greater Manchester)
MP: Hazel Blears (LAB)
Electorate: 75,482
Turnout: 55.02%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,655	40.10%	51.01%
LIB	10,930	26.32%	12.45%
CON	8,497	20.46%	21.31%
OTH	5,451	13.12%	15.23%
LAB Majority	5,725	13.78%	Pred Maj 29.70%

Chance of winning

LAB

91.7%

LIB

0.3%

CON

6.9%

OTH

1.1%

Top

Salisbury
County/Area: Wiltshire (West)
MP: John Glen (CON)
Electorate: 67,429
Turnout: 71.90%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	23,859	49.21%	49.97%
LIB	17,893	36.91%	24.56%
LAB	3,690	7.61%	17.33%
OTH	3,039	6.27%	8.14%
CON Majority	5,966	12.31%	Pred Maj 25.41%

Chance of winning

CON

93.9%

LIB

2.4%

LAB

3.6%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Scarborough and Whitby
County/Area: North Yorkshire (Yorkshire)
MP: Robert Goodwill (CON)
Electorate: 75,443
Turnout: 65.32%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	21,108	42.83%	43.64%
LAB	12,978	26.33%	36.71%
LIB	11,093	22.51%	9.33%
OTH	4,103	8.33%	10.33%
CON Majority	8,130	16.50%	Pred Maj 6.93%

Chance of winning

CON

63.6%

LAB

35.8%

LIB

0.1%

OTH

0.5%

Top

Scunthorpe
County/Area: Humber area (Humberside)
MP: Nic Dakin (LAB)
Electorate: 63,089
Turnout: 58.70%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	14,640	39.53%	49.02%
CON	12,091	32.65%	33.39%
LIB	6,774	18.29%	6.23%
OTH	3,529	9.53%	11.36%
LAB Majority	2,549	6.88%	Pred Maj 15.63%

Chance of winning

LAB

81.3%

CON

18.4%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.3%

Top

Sedgefield
County/Area: Durham (North)
MP: Phil Wilson (LAB)
Electorate: 64,727
Turnout: 62.14%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	18,141	45.10%	55.83%
CON	9,445	23.48%	24.32%
LIB	8,033	19.97%	6.34%
OTH	4,603	11.44%	13.51%
LAB Majority	8,696	21.62%	Pred Maj 31.51%

Chance of winning

LAB

95.0%

CON

4.8%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.2%

Top

Sefton Central
County/Area: Merseyside (Lancashire)
MP: Bill Esterson (LAB)
Electorate: 67,512
Turnout: 71.78%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	20,307	41.90%	52.77%
CON	16,445	33.93%	34.78%
LIB	9,656	19.92%	6.11%
OTH	2,055	4.24%	6.34%
LAB Majority	3,862	7.97%	Pred Maj 17.99%

Chance of winning

LAB

83.4%

CON

16.4%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.2%

Top

Selby and Ainsty
County/Area: North Yorkshire (Yorkshire)
MP: Nigel Adams (CON)
Electorate: 72,789
Turnout: 71.07%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	25,562	49.42%	50.13%
LAB	13,297	25.71%	34.91%
LIB	9,180	17.75%	6.05%
OTH	3,689	7.13%	8.91%
CON Majority	12,265	23.71%	Pred Maj 15.23%

Chance of winning

CON

81.3%

LAB

18.6%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Sevenoaks
County/Area: Kent (South East)
MP: Michael Fallon (CON)
Electorate: 69,591
Turnout: 71.00%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	28,076	56.82%	57.60%
LIB	10,561	21.38%	8.69%
LAB	6,541	13.24%	23.22%
OTH	4,230	8.56%	10.49%
CON Majority	17,515	35.45%	Pred Maj 34.38%

Chance of winning

CON

96.4%

LIB

0.1%

LAB

3.4%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough
County/Area: South Yorkshire (Humberside)
MP: David Blunkett (LAB)
Electorate: 68,186
Turnout: 57.07%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	21,400	54.99%	65.34%
LIB	7,768	19.96%	6.80%
CON	4,468	11.48%	12.29%
MIN	3,026	7.78%	7.78%
OTH	2,252	5.79%	7.79%
LAB Majority	13,632	35.03%	Pred Maj 53.06%

Chance of winning

LAB

99.9%

LIB

0.0%

CON

0.1%

MIN

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Sheffield Central
County/Area: South Yorkshire (Humberside)
MP: Paul Blomfield (LAB)
Electorate: 69,519
Turnout: 59.65%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	17,138	41.33%	51.70%
LIB	16,973	40.93%	27.75%
CON	4,206	10.14%	10.95%
OTH	3,151	7.60%	9.60%
LAB Majority	165	0.40%	Pred Maj 23.95%

Chance of winning

LAB

93.6%

LIB

4.5%

CON

1.6%

OTH

0.3%

Top

Sheffield Hallam
County/Area: South Yorkshire (Humberside)
MP: Nick Clegg (LIB)
Electorate: 69,378
Turnout: 73.70%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	27,324	53.44%	40.25%
CON	12,040	23.55%	24.35%
LAB	8,228	16.09%	26.46%
OTH	3,543	6.93%	8.93%
LIB Majority	15,284	29.89%	Pred Maj 13.79%

Chance of winning

LIB

70.6%

CON

11.8%

LAB

16.7%

OTH

0.9%

Top

Sheffield Heeley
County/Area: South Yorkshire (Humberside)
MP: Meg Munn (LAB)
Electorate: 65,869
Turnout: 62.05%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	17,409	42.59%	52.97%
LIB	11,602	28.39%	15.20%
CON	7,081	17.33%	18.13%
OTH	4,779	11.69%	13.70%
LAB Majority	5,807	14.21%	Pred Maj 34.83%

Chance of winning

LAB

95.4%

LIB

0.2%

CON

3.9%

OTH

0.5%

Top

Sheffield South East
County/Area: South Yorkshire (Humberside)
MP: Clive Betts (LAB)
Electorate: 67,284
Turnout: 61.54%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	20,169	48.71%	59.08%
LIB	9,664	23.34%	10.16%
CON	7,202	17.39%	18.20%
OTH	4,373	10.56%	12.56%
LAB Majority	10,505	25.37%	Pred Maj 40.88%

Chance of winning

LAB

98.4%

LIB

0.0%

CON

1.4%

OTH

0.2%

Top

Sherwood
County/Area: Nottinghamshire (East Midlands)
MP: Mark Spencer (CON)
Electorate: 71,043
Turnout: 68.91%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	19,211	39.24%	39.86%
LAB	18,997	38.81%	46.67%
LIB	7,283	14.88%	4.89%
OTH	3,463	7.07%	8.59%
CON Majority	214	0.44%	Pred Maj 6.81%

Chance of winning

CON

31.2%

LAB

68.6%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.2%

Top

LAB Gain

Shipley
County/Area: West Yorkshire (Yorkshire)
MP: Philip Davies (CON)
Electorate: 67,689
Turnout: 73.02%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	24,002	48.56%	49.37%
LAB	14,058	28.44%	38.81%
LIB	9,890	20.01%	6.83%
OTH	1,477	2.99%	4.99%
CON Majority	9,944	20.12%	Pred Maj 10.56%

Chance of winning

CON

75.2%

LAB

24.7%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Shrewsbury and Atcham
County/Area: Shropshire (Severn)
MP: Daniel Kawczynski (CON)
Electorate: 75,438
Turnout: 70.32%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	23,313	43.95%	44.80%
LIB	15,369	28.97%	15.16%
LAB	10,915	20.58%	31.44%
OTH	3,448	6.50%	8.60%
CON Majority	7,944	14.98%	Pred Maj 13.35%

Chance of winning

CON

76.9%

LIB

1.1%

LAB

21.5%

OTH

0.5%

Top

Shropshire North
County/Area: Shropshire (Severn)
MP: Owen Paterson (CON)
Electorate: 78,926
Turnout: 65.72%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	26,692	51.46%	52.31%
LIB	10,864	20.95%	7.14%
LAB	9,406	18.13%	29.00%
OTH	4,907	9.46%	11.56%
CON Majority	15,828	30.52%	Pred Maj 23.31%

Chance of winning

CON

89.7%

LIB

0.1%

LAB

10.1%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Sittingbourne and Sheppey
County/Area: Kent (South East)
MP: Gordon Henderson (CON)
Electorate: 75,354
Turnout: 64.47%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	24,313	50.05%	50.69%
LAB	11,930	24.56%	32.72%
LIB	7,943	16.35%	5.98%
OTH	4,392	9.04%	10.62%
CON Majority	12,383	25.49%	Pred Maj 17.97%

Chance of winning

CON

84.7%

LAB

15.2%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Skipton and Ripon
County/Area: North Yorkshire (Yorkshire)
MP: Julian Smith (CON)
Electorate: 77,381
Turnout: 70.72%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	27,685	50.59%	51.40%
LIB	17,735	32.41%	19.23%
LAB	5,498	10.05%	20.42%
OTH	3,806	6.95%	8.96%
CON Majority	9,950	18.18%	Pred Maj 30.98%

Chance of winning

CON

94.6%

LIB

0.6%

LAB

4.5%

OTH

0.3%

Top

Sleaford and North Hykeham
County/Area: Lincolnshire (Humberside)
MP: Stephen Phillips (CON)
Electorate: 85,550
Turnout: 69.59%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	30,719	51.60%	52.34%
LIB	10,814	18.17%	6.19%
LAB	10,051	16.88%	26.30%
OTH	4,140	6.95%	8.77%
MIN	3,806	6.39%	6.39%
CON Majority	19,905	33.44%	Pred Maj 26.03%

Chance of winning

CON

92.7%

LIB

0.1%

LAB

7.1%

OTH

0.1%

MIN

0.0%

Top

Slough
County/Area: Berkshire (South)
MP: Fiona Mactaggart (LAB)
Electorate: 77,068
Turnout: 61.95%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	21,884	45.84%	53.10%
CON	16,361	34.27%	34.84%
LIB	6,943	14.54%	5.32%
OTH	2,554	5.35%	6.75%
LAB Majority	5,523	11.57%	Pred Maj 18.26%

Chance of winning

LAB

89.6%

CON

10.4%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Solihull
County/Area: Coventry and Solihull (West Midlands)
MP: Lorely Burt (LIB)
Electorate: 77,863
Turnout: 70.80%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	23,635	42.87%	29.06%
CON	23,460	42.55%	43.40%
LAB	4,891	8.87%	19.74%
OTH	3,143	5.70%	7.80%
LIB Majority	175	0.32%	Pred Maj 14.34%

Chance of winning

LIB

13.3%

CON

76.4%

LAB

9.4%

OTH

0.9%

Top

CON Gain

Somerset North
County/Area: Bristol area (West)
MP: Liam Fox (CON)
Electorate: 77,304
Turnout: 74.95%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	28,549	49.27%	50.03%
LIB	20,687	35.70%	23.35%
LAB	6,448	11.13%	20.85%
OTH	2,257	3.90%	5.77%
CON Majority	7,862	13.57%	Pred Maj 26.68%

Chance of winning

CON

93.5%

LIB

1.8%

LAB

4.6%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Somerset North East
County/Area: Bristol area (West)
MP: Jacob Rees-Mogg (CON)
Electorate: 67,412
Turnout: 75.96%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	21,130	41.27%	42.02%
LAB	16,216	31.67%	41.39%
LIB	11,433	22.33%	9.98%
OTH	2,424	4.73%	6.61%
CON Majority	4,914	9.60%	Pred Maj 0.64%

Chance of winning

CON

50.3%

LAB

49.3%

LIB

0.1%

OTH

0.3%

Top

Somerton and Frome
County/Area: Somerset (South West)
MP: David Heath (LIB)
Electorate: 81,548
Turnout: 74.33%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	28,793	47.50%	35.15%
CON	26,976	44.51%	45.26%
LAB	2,675	4.41%	14.13%
OTH	2,168	3.58%	5.45%
LIB Majority	1,817	3.00%	Pred Maj 10.11%

Chance of winning

LIB

20.1%

CON

77.8%

LAB

1.9%

OTH

0.2%

Top

CON Gain

South Holland and The Deepings
County/Area: Lincolnshire (Humberside)
MP: John Hayes (CON)
Electorate: 76,243
Turnout: 65.83%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	29,639	59.06%	59.68%
LIB	7,759	15.46%	5.27%
LAB	7,024	14.00%	22.01%
OTH	5,766	11.49%	13.04%
CON Majority	21,880	43.60%	Pred Maj 37.67%

Chance of winning

CON

97.2%

LIB

0.0%

LAB

2.8%

OTH

0.0%

Top

South Shields
County/Area: Newcastle area (North)
MP: David Miliband (LAB)
Electorate: 63,294
Turnout: 57.70%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	18,995	52.02%	59.64%
CON	7,886	21.59%	22.19%
LIB	5,189	14.21%	4.51%
OTH	4,448	12.18%	13.65%
LAB Majority	11,109	30.42%	Pred Maj 37.46%

Chance of winning

LAB

99.1%

CON

0.9%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Southampton Itchen
County/Area: Hampshire (South)
MP: John Denham (LAB)
Electorate: 74,532
Turnout: 59.59%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,326	36.76%	46.74%
CON	16,134	36.33%	37.11%
LIB	9,256	20.84%	8.15%
OTH	2,696	6.07%	8.00%
LAB Majority	192	0.43%	Pred Maj 9.64%

Chance of winning

LAB

70.0%

CON

29.4%

LIB

0.2%

OTH

0.4%

Top

Southampton Test
County/Area: Hampshire (South)
MP: Alan Whitehead (LAB)
Electorate: 71,931
Turnout: 61.43%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	17,001	38.48%	48.46%
CON	14,588	33.01%	33.79%
LIB	9,865	22.33%	9.64%
OTH	2,733	6.19%	8.11%
LAB Majority	2,413	5.46%	Pred Maj 14.67%

Chance of winning

LAB

78.1%

CON

21.5%

LIB

0.1%

OTH

0.3%

Top

Southend West
County/Area: Essex (Essex)
MP: David Amess (CON)
Electorate: 66,527
Turnout: 65.55%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	20,086	46.06%	46.88%
LIB	12,816	29.39%	16.10%
LAB	5,850	13.42%	23.87%
OTH	4,854	11.13%	13.15%
CON Majority	7,270	16.67%	Pred Maj 23.00%

Chance of winning

CON

87.8%

LIB

1.0%

LAB

10.3%

OTH

0.9%

Top

Southport
County/Area: Merseyside (Lancashire)
MP: John Pugh (LIB)
Electorate: 67,202
Turnout: 65.11%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	21,707	49.61%	35.74%
CON	15,683	35.84%	36.69%
LAB	4,116	9.41%	20.32%
OTH	2,251	5.14%	7.25%
LIB Majority	6,024	13.77%	Pred Maj 0.95%

Chance of winning

LIB

40.5%

CON

46.2%

LAB

12.2%

OTH

1.1%

Top

CON Gain

Spelthorne
County/Area: Surrey (South)
MP: Kwasi Kwarteng (CON)
Electorate: 70,479
Turnout: 67.12%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	22,261	47.06%	47.84%
LIB	12,242	25.88%	13.19%
LAB	7,789	16.47%	26.45%
OTH	5,012	10.60%	12.52%
CON Majority	10,019	21.18%	Pred Maj 21.39%

Chance of winning

CON

87.2%

LIB

0.3%

LAB

12.1%

OTH

0.4%

Top

St Albans
County/Area: Hertfordshire (Essex)
MP: Anne Main (CON)
Electorate: 70,058
Turnout: 75.42%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	21,533	40.76%	41.57%
LIB	19,228	36.39%	23.10%
LAB	9,288	17.58%	28.04%
OTH	2,786	5.27%	7.29%
CON Majority	2,305	4.36%	Pred Maj 13.53%

Chance of winning

CON

73.7%

LIB

5.2%

LAB

20.5%

OTH

0.6%

Top

St Austell and Newquay
County/Area: Cornwall (South West)
MP: Stephen Gilbert (LIB)
Electorate: 76,346
Turnout: 61.87%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	20,189	42.74%	30.39%
CON	18,877	39.96%	40.72%
LAB	3,386	7.17%	16.89%
OTH	2,779	5.88%	7.76%
MIN	2,007	4.25%	4.25%
LIB Majority	1,312	2.78%	Pred Maj 10.33%

Chance of winning

LIB

17.5%

CON

75.4%

LAB

6.5%

OTH

0.6%

MIN

0.0%

Top

CON Gain

St Helens North
County/Area: Merseyside (Lancashire)
MP: Dave Watts (LAB)
Electorate: 74,985
Turnout: 59.42%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	23,041	51.71%	62.62%
CON	9,940	22.31%	23.16%
LIB	8,992	20.18%	6.31%
OTH	2,583	5.80%	7.90%
LAB Majority	13,101	29.40%	Pred Maj 39.46%

Chance of winning

LAB

98.6%

CON

1.4%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

St Helens South and Whiston
County/Area: Merseyside (Lancashire)
MP: Shaun Woodward (LAB)
Electorate: 77,975
Turnout: 59.10%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	24,364	52.87%	63.78%
LIB	10,242	22.23%	8.36%
CON	8,209	17.81%	18.66%
OTH	3,266	7.09%	9.19%
LAB Majority	14,122	30.65%	Pred Maj 45.12%

Chance of winning

LAB

99.3%

LIB

0.0%

CON

0.7%

OTH

0.0%

Top

St Ives
County/Area: Cornwall (South West)
MP: Andrew George (LIB)
Electorate: 66,930
Turnout: 68.61%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	19,619	42.72%	30.37%
CON	17,900	38.98%	39.74%
LAB	3,751	8.17%	17.89%
MIN	2,560	5.57%	5.57%
OTH	2,091	4.55%	6.43%
LIB Majority	1,719	3.74%	Pred Maj 9.37%

Chance of winning

LIB

19.0%

CON

73.4%

LAB

7.1%

MIN

0.0%

OTH

0.5%

Top

CON Gain

Stafford
County/Area: Staffordshire (Severn)
MP: Jeremy Lefroy (CON)
Electorate: 70,587
Turnout: 71.17%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	22,047	43.88%	44.58%
LAB	16,587	33.02%	41.89%
LIB	8,211	16.34%	5.06%
OTH	3,394	6.76%	8.47%
CON Majority	5,460	10.87%	Pred Maj 2.68%

Chance of winning

CON

54.3%

LAB

45.4%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.3%

Top

Staffordshire Moorlands
County/Area: Staffordshire (Severn)
MP: Karen Bradley (CON)
Electorate: 62,071
Turnout: 70.59%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	19,793	45.17%	45.88%
LAB	13,104	29.91%	39.01%
LIB	7,338	16.75%	5.18%
OTH	3,580	8.17%	9.93%
CON Majority	6,689	15.27%	Pred Maj 6.88%

Chance of winning

CON

64.6%

LAB

35.1%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.3%

Top

Staffordshire South
County/Area: Staffordshire (Severn)
MP: Gavin Williamson (CON)
Electorate: 73,390
Turnout: 68.73%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	26,834	53.20%	53.91%
LAB	10,244	20.31%	29.39%
LIB	8,427	16.71%	5.17%
OTH	4,935	9.78%	11.54%
CON Majority	16,590	32.89%	Pred Maj 24.52%

Chance of winning

CON

91.5%

LAB

8.3%

LIB

0.1%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Stalybridge and Hyde
County/Area: Eastern Manchester (Greater Manchester)
MP: Jonathan Reynolds (LAB)
Electorate: 69,037
Turnout: 59.21%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,189	39.60%	48.90%
CON	13,445	32.89%	33.61%
LIB	6,965	17.04%	5.22%
OTH	4,280	10.47%	12.26%
LAB Majority	2,744	6.71%	Pred Maj 15.28%

Chance of winning

LAB

80.8%

CON

18.9%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.3%

Top

Stevenage
County/Area: Hertfordshire (Essex)
MP: Stephen McPartland (CON)
Electorate: 68,937
Turnout: 64.77%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	18,491	41.41%	42.09%
LAB	14,913	33.40%	42.10%
LIB	7,432	16.64%	5.58%
OTH	3,815	8.54%	10.22%
CON Majority	3,578	8.01%	Pred Maj 0.01%

Chance of winning

CON

47.4%

LAB

52.2%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.4%

Top

LAB Gain

Stockport
County/Area: Eastern Manchester (Greater Manchester)
MP: Ann Coffey (LAB)
Electorate: 63,525
Turnout: 61.59%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,697	42.67%	53.58%
CON	9,913	25.33%	26.19%
LIB	9,778	24.99%	11.12%
OTH	2,740	7.00%	9.11%
LAB Majority	6,784	17.34%	Pred Maj 27.40%

Chance of winning

LAB

92.6%

CON

7.1%

LIB

0.1%

OTH

0.2%

Top

Stockton North
County/Area: Teeside (North)
MP: Alex Cunningham (LAB)
Electorate: 67,363
Turnout: 58.63%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,923	42.85%	51.47%
CON	10,247	25.94%	26.62%
LIB	6,342	16.06%	5.10%
OTH	5,986	15.16%	16.82%
LAB Majority	6,676	16.90%	Pred Maj 24.85%

Chance of winning

LAB

92.7%

CON

6.9%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.4%

Top

Stockton South
County/Area: Teeside (North)
MP: James Wharton (CON)
Electorate: 74,552
Turnout: 67.45%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	19,577	38.93%	39.57%
LAB	19,245	38.27%	46.39%
LIB	7,600	15.11%	4.80%
OTH	3,862	7.68%	9.25%
CON Majority	332	0.66%	Pred Maj 6.82%

Chance of winning

CON

31.4%

LAB

68.4%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.2%

Top

LAB Gain

Stoke-on-Trent Central
County/Area: Staffordshire (Severn)
MP: Tristram Hunt (LAB)
Electorate: 60,995
Turnout: 53.23%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	12,605	38.82%	49.69%
LIB	7,039	21.68%	7.87%
CON	6,833	21.04%	21.89%
OTH	5,993	18.46%	20.56%
LAB Majority	5,566	17.14%	Pred Maj 27.79%

Chance of winning

LAB

89.0%

LIB

0.1%

CON

8.2%

OTH

2.7%

Top

Stoke-on-Trent North
County/Area: Staffordshire (Severn)
MP: Joan Walley (LAB)
Electorate: 72,052
Turnout: 55.79%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	17,815	44.32%	53.94%
CON	9,580	23.83%	24.58%
LIB	7,120	17.71%	5.48%
OTH	5,681	14.13%	15.99%
LAB Majority	8,235	20.49%	Pred Maj 29.36%

Chance of winning

LAB

93.9%

CON

5.7%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.4%

Top

Stoke-on-Trent South
County/Area: Staffordshire (Severn)
MP: Robert Flello (LAB)
Electorate: 68,031
Turnout: 58.58%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	15,446	38.76%	47.38%
CON	11,316	28.40%	29.07%
LIB	6,323	15.87%	4.91%
MIN	3,762	9.44%	9.44%
OTH	3,005	7.54%	9.20%
LAB Majority	4,130	10.36%	Pred Maj 18.31%

Chance of winning

LAB

88.1%

CON

11.7%

LIB

0.0%

MIN

0.0%

OTH

0.2%

Top

Stone
County/Area: Staffordshire (Severn)
MP: William Cash (CON)
Electorate: 66,979
Turnout: 70.51%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	23,890	50.58%	51.43%
LIB	10,598	22.44%	8.63%
LAB	9,770	20.69%	31.55%
OTH	2,971	6.29%	8.39%
CON Majority	13,292	28.14%	Pred Maj 19.88%

Chance of winning

CON

87.0%

LIB

0.2%

LAB

12.7%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Stourbridge
County/Area: Black Country (West Midlands)
MP: Margot James (CON)
Electorate: 69,637
Turnout: 67.83%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	20,153	42.67%	43.36%
LAB	14,989	31.73%	40.63%
LIB	7,733	16.37%	5.07%
OTH	4,359	9.23%	10.95%
CON Majority	5,164	10.93%	Pred Maj 2.73%

Chance of winning

CON

53.4%

LAB

46.2%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.4%

Top

Stratford-on-Avon
County/Area: Warwickshire (East Midlands)
MP: Nadhim Zahawi (CON)
Electorate: 69,516
Turnout: 72.71%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	26,052	51.55%	52.37%
LIB	14,706	29.10%	15.66%
LAB	4,809	9.51%	20.08%
OTH	3,129	6.19%	8.23%
MIN	1,846	3.65%	3.65%
CON Majority	11,346	22.45%	Pred Maj 32.29%

Chance of winning

CON

95.6%

LIB

0.3%

LAB

3.9%

OTH

0.2%

MIN

0.0%

Top

Streatham
County/Area: Lambeth (South London)
MP: Chuka Umunna (LAB)
Electorate: 74,531
Turnout: 62.84%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	20,037	42.78%	54.16%
LIB	16,778	35.82%	21.36%
CON	8,578	18.31%	19.20%
OTH	1,444	3.08%	5.28%
LAB Majority	3,259	6.96%	Pred Maj 32.81%

Chance of winning

LAB

94.2%

LIB

1.6%

CON

4.0%

OTH

0.2%

Top

Stretford and Urmston
County/Area: Central Manchester (Greater Manchester)
MP: Kate Green (LAB)
Electorate: 70,091
Turnout: 64.07%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	21,821	48.59%	57.82%
CON	12,886	28.69%	29.41%
LIB	7,601	16.92%	5.19%
OTH	2,602	5.79%	7.58%
LAB Majority	8,935	19.90%	Pred Maj 28.41%

Chance of winning

LAB

95.6%

CON

4.4%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Stroud
County/Area: Gloucestershire (West)
MP: Neil Carmichael (CON)
Electorate: 78,305
Turnout: 74.03%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	23,679	40.84%	41.43%
LAB	22,380	38.60%	46.11%
LIB	8,955	15.45%	5.91%
OTH	2,959	5.10%	6.55%
CON Majority	1,299	2.24%	Pred Maj 4.68%

Chance of winning

CON

36.2%

LAB

63.6%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.2%

Top

LAB Gain

Suffolk Central and Ipswich North
County/Area: Suffolk (East Anglia)
MP: Daniel Poulter (CON)
Electorate: 75,848
Turnout: 70.43%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	27,125	50.78%	51.59%
LIB	13,339	24.97%	11.68%
LAB	8,636	16.17%	26.62%
OTH	4,320	8.09%	10.11%
CON Majority	13,786	25.81%	Pred Maj 24.97%

Chance of winning

CON

91.5%

LIB

0.3%

LAB

8.0%

OTH

0.2%

Top

Suffolk Coastal
County/Area: Suffolk (East Anglia)
MP: Therese Coffey (CON)
Electorate: 76,687
Turnout: 71.58%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	25,475	46.41%	47.22%
LIB	16,347	29.78%	16.49%
LAB	8,812	16.05%	26.51%
OTH	4,259	7.76%	9.78%
CON Majority	9,128	16.63%	Pred Maj 20.71%

Chance of winning

CON

86.9%

LIB

0.8%

LAB

12.0%

OTH

0.3%

Top

Suffolk South
County/Area: Suffolk (East Anglia)
MP: Tim Yeo (CON)
Electorate: 72,498
Turnout: 70.92%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	24,550	47.75%	48.56%
LIB	15,861	30.85%	17.56%
LAB	7,368	14.33%	24.79%
OTH	3,637	7.07%	9.09%
CON Majority	8,689	16.90%	Pred Maj 23.78%

Chance of winning

CON

89.9%

LIB

0.8%

LAB

9.1%

OTH

0.2%

Top

Suffolk West
County/Area: Suffolk (East Anglia)
MP: Matthew Hancock (CON)
Electorate: 74,413
Turnout: 64.62%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	24,312	50.56%	51.37%
LIB	11,262	23.42%	10.13%
LAB	7,089	14.74%	25.20%
OTH	5,426	11.28%	13.30%
CON Majority	13,050	27.14%	Pred Maj 26.17%

Chance of winning

CON

91.9%

LIB

0.2%

LAB

7.4%

OTH

0.5%

Top

Sunderland Central
County/Area: Newcastle area (North)
MP: Julie Elliott (LAB)
Electorate: 74,485
Turnout: 57.01%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	19,495	45.91%	55.00%
CON	12,770	30.07%	30.78%
LIB	7,191	16.93%	5.38%
OTH	3,007	7.08%	8.84%
LAB Majority	6,725	15.84%	Pred Maj 24.22%

Chance of winning

LAB

93.7%

CON

6.3%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Surrey East
County/Area: Surrey (South)
MP: Sam Gyimah (CON)
Electorate: 76,855
Turnout: 71.09%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	31,007	56.75%	57.53%
LIB	14,133	25.87%	13.18%
LAB	4,925	9.01%	19.00%
OTH	4,575	8.37%	10.30%
CON Majority	16,874	30.88%	Pred Maj 38.53%

Chance of winning

CON

97.9%

LIB

0.1%

LAB

2.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Surrey Heath
County/Area: Surrey (South)
MP: Michael Gove (CON)
Electorate: 77,690
Turnout: 69.95%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	31,326	57.64%	58.42%
LIB	14,037	25.83%	13.14%
LAB	5,552	10.22%	20.20%
OTH	3,432	6.31%	8.24%
CON Majority	17,289	31.81%	Pred Maj 38.22%

Chance of winning

CON

98.2%

LIB

0.1%

LAB

1.7%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Surrey South West
County/Area: Surrey (South)
MP: Jeremy Hunt (CON)
Electorate: 77,980
Turnout: 73.43%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	33,605	58.69%	59.47%
LIB	17,287	30.19%	17.50%
LAB	3,419	5.97%	15.95%
OTH	2,948	5.15%	7.08%
CON Majority	16,318	28.50%	Pred Maj 41.97%

Chance of winning

CON

99.1%

LIB

0.1%

LAB

0.8%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Sussex Mid
County/Area: West Sussex (South East)
MP: Nicholas Soames (CON)
Electorate: 77,182
Turnout: 72.37%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	28,329	50.72%	51.50%
LIB	20,927	37.47%	24.78%
LAB	3,689	6.60%	16.59%
OTH	2,910	5.21%	7.14%
CON Majority	7,402	13.25%	Pred Maj 26.72%

Chance of winning

CON

95.2%

LIB

1.9%

LAB

2.8%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Sutton and Cheam
County/Area: Sutton (South London)
MP: Paul Burstow (LIB)
Electorate: 66,658
Turnout: 72.77%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	22,156	45.67%	31.21%
CON	20,548	42.36%	43.25%
LAB	3,376	6.96%	18.34%
OTH	2,428	5.01%	7.20%
LIB Majority	1,608	3.31%	Pred Maj 12.04%

Chance of winning

LIB

17.3%

CON

73.1%

LAB

8.5%

OTH

1.1%

Top

CON Gain

Sutton Coldfield
County/Area: Birmingham (West Midlands)
MP: Andrew Mitchell (CON)
Electorate: 74,489
Turnout: 67.91%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	27,303	53.97%	54.73%
LAB	10,298	20.36%	30.15%
LIB	9,117	18.02%	5.58%
OTH	3,871	7.65%	9.54%
CON Majority	17,005	33.61%	Pred Maj 24.59%

Chance of winning

CON

91.9%

LAB

7.9%

LIB

0.1%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Swindon North
County/Area: Wiltshire (West)
MP: Justin Tomlinson (CON)
Electorate: 78,391
Turnout: 64.16%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	22,408	44.55%	45.21%
LAB	15,348	30.52%	38.89%
LIB	8,668	17.23%	6.59%
OTH	3,871	7.70%	9.31%
CON Majority	7,060	14.04%	Pred Maj 6.32%

Chance of winning

CON

62.5%

LAB

37.2%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.3%

Top

Swindon South
County/Area: Wiltshire (West)
MP: Robert Buckland (CON)
Electorate: 72,622
Turnout: 64.88%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	19,687	41.78%	42.45%
LAB	16,143	34.26%	42.82%
LIB	8,305	17.63%	6.74%
OTH	2,984	6.33%	7.99%
CON Majority	3,544	7.52%	Pred Maj 0.37%

Chance of winning

CON

47.0%

LAB

52.7%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.3%

Top

LAB Gain