Constituency List: Scotland

Aberdeen North
Aberdeen South
Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine
Airdrie and Shotts
Angus
Argyll and Bute
Ayr Carrick and Cumnock
Ayrshire Central
Ayrshire North and Arran
Banff and Buchan
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross
Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill
Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East
Dumfries and Galloway

Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale
Dunbartonshire East
Dunbartonshire West
Dundee East
Dundee West
Dunfermline and West Fife
East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow
East Lothian
Edinburgh East
Edinburgh North and Leith
Edinburgh South
Edinburgh South West
Edinburgh West
Falkirk
Fife North East

Glasgow Central
Glasgow East
Glasgow North
Glasgow North East
Glasgow North West
Glasgow South
Glasgow South West
Glenrothes
Gordon
Inverclyde
Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey
Kilmarnock and Loudoun
Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath
Lanark and Hamilton East
Linlithgow and East Falkirk

Livingston
Midlothian
Moray
Motherwell and Wishaw
Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles)
Ochil and South Perthshire
Orkney and Shetland
Paisley and Renfrewshire North
Paisley and Renfrewshire South
Perth and North Perthshire
Renfrewshire East
Ross Skye and Lochaber
Rutherglen and Hamilton West
Stirling

Aberdeen North
County/Area: Grampian (East Scotland)
MP: Frank Doran (LAB)
Electorate: 64,808
Turnout: 58.17%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,746	44.42%	37.15%
NAT	8,385	22.24%	42.92%
LIB	7,001	18.57%	2.72%
CON	4,666	12.38%	11.73%
OTH	903	2.40%	5.48%
LAB Majority	8,361	22.18%	Pred Maj 5.77%

Chance of winning

LAB

41.0%

NAT

58.7%

LIB

0.0%

CON

0.2%

OTH

0.1%

Top

NAT Gain

Aberdeen South
County/Area: Grampian (East Scotland)
MP: Anne Begg (LAB)
Electorate: 64,031
Turnout: 67.21%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	15,722	36.53%	29.26%
LIB	12,216	28.39%	11.32%
CON	8,914	20.71%	19.68%
NAT	5,102	11.86%	33.94%
OTH	1,080	2.51%	5.80%
LAB Majority	3,506	8.15%	Pred Maj 4.68%

Chance of winning

LAB

37.8%

LIB

1.1%

CON

6.7%

NAT

53.8%

OTH

0.6%

Top

NAT Gain

Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine
County/Area: Grampian (East Scotland)
MP: Sir Robert Smith (LIB)
Electorate: 66,110
Turnout: 68.36%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	17,362	38.42%	21.34%
CON	13,678	30.26%	29.23%
NAT	7,086	15.68%	35.75%
LAB	6,159	13.63%	8.67%
OTH	910	2.01%	5.01%
LIB Majority	3,684	8.15%	Pred Maj 6.52%

Chance of winning

LIB

7.4%

CON

29.9%

NAT

59.6%

LAB

3.1%

OTH

0.0%

Top

NAT Gain

Airdrie and Shotts
County/Area: Glasgow area (West Scotland)
MP: Pamela Nash (LAB)
Electorate: 62,364
Turnout: 57.48%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	20,849	58.16%	50.89%
NAT	8,441	23.55%	36.27%
CON	3,133	8.74%	8.29%
LIB	2,898	8.08%	1.18%
OTH	528	1.47%	3.37%
LAB Majority	12,408	34.61%	Pred Maj 14.62%

Chance of winning

LAB

82.0%

NAT

18.0%

CON

0.0%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Angus
County/Area: Tayside (East Scotland)
MP: Michael Weir (NAT)
Electorate: 62,863
Turnout: 60.39%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
NAT	15,020	39.57%	53.92%
CON	11,738	30.92%	29.88%
LAB	6,535	17.22%	10.96%
LIB	4,090	10.77%	1.58%
OTH	577	1.52%	3.66%
NAT Majority	3,282	8.65%	Pred Maj 24.04%

Chance of winning

NAT

99.2%

CON

0.7%

LAB

0.1%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Argyll and Bute
County/Area: Argyll and Bute (West Scotland)
MP: Alan Reid (LIB)
Electorate: 67,165
Turnout: 67.31%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	14,292	31.61%	14.54%
CON	10,861	24.03%	22.99%
LAB	10,274	22.73%	15.46%
NAT	8,563	18.94%	41.03%
OTH	1,217	2.69%	5.99%
LIB Majority	3,431	7.59%	Pred Maj 18.04%

Chance of winning

LIB

1.7%

CON

9.0%

LAB

9.7%

NAT

79.4%

OTH

0.2%

Top

NAT Gain

Ayr Carrick and Cumnock
County/Area: Ayrshire and Lanark (West Scotland)
MP: Sandra Osborne (LAB)
Electorate: 73,320
Turnout: 62.59%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	21,632	47.14%	39.87%
CON	11,721	25.54%	24.50%
NAT	8,276	18.03%	32.16%
LIB	4,264	9.29%	1.36%
OTH	0	0.00%	2.11%
LAB Majority	9,911	21.60%	Pred Maj 7.70%

Chance of winning

LAB

65.3%

CON

3.2%

NAT

31.5%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Ayrshire Central
County/Area: Ayrshire and Lanark (West Scotland)
MP: Brian Donohoe (LAB)
Electorate: 68,352
Turnout: 64.25%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	20,950	47.71%	40.44%
CON	8,943	20.36%	19.33%
NAT	8,364	19.05%	35.13%
LIB	5,236	11.92%	1.75%
OTH	422	0.96%	3.36%
LAB Majority	12,007	27.34%	Pred Maj 5.30%

Chance of winning

LAB

62.0%

CON

1.3%

NAT

36.7%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Ayrshire North and Arran
County/Area: Ayrshire and Lanark (West Scotland)
MP: Katy Clark (LAB)
Electorate: 74,953
Turnout: 61.53%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	21,860	47.40%	40.13%
NAT	11,965	25.95%	40.44%
CON	7,212	15.64%	14.83%
LIB	4,630	10.04%	1.47%
OTH	449	0.97%	3.14%
LAB Majority	9,895	21.46%	Pred Maj 0.30%

Chance of winning

LAB

50.3%

NAT

49.6%

CON

0.1%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

NAT Gain

Banff and Buchan
County/Area: Grampian (East Scotland)
MP: Eilidh Whiteford (NAT)
Electorate: 64,300
Turnout: 59.82%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
NAT	15,868	41.25%	55.01%
CON	11,841	30.78%	29.75%
LAB	5,382	13.99%	8.91%
LIB	4,365	11.35%	1.66%
OTH	1,010	2.63%	4.68%
NAT Majority	4,027	10.47%	Pred Maj 25.26%

Chance of winning

NAT

99.5%

CON

0.5%

LAB

0.0%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
County/Area: Borders (East Scotland)
MP: Michael Moore (LIB)
Electorate: 73,826
Turnout: 66.39%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	22,230	45.35%	28.28%
CON	16,555	33.78%	32.74%
LAB	5,003	10.21%	6.50%
NAT	4,497	9.17%	28.16%
OTH	729	1.49%	4.32%
LIB Majority	5,675	11.58%	Pred Maj 4.45%

Chance of winning

LIB

20.5%

CON

45.5%

LAB

1.2%

NAT

32.7%

OTH

0.1%

Top

CON Gain

Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross
County/Area: Highland (East Scotland)
MP: John Thurso (LIB)
Electorate: 47,257
Turnout: 60.88%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	11,907	41.39%	24.32%
LAB	7,081	24.61%	17.34%
NAT	5,516	19.17%	40.94%
CON	3,744	13.01%	12.34%
OTH	520	1.81%	5.06%
LIB Majority	4,826	16.78%	Pred Maj 16.62%

Chance of winning

LIB

10.7%

LAB

10.1%

NAT

78.2%

CON

0.8%

OTH

0.2%

Top

NAT Gain

Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill
County/Area: Glasgow area (West Scotland)
MP: Tom Clarke (LAB)
Electorate: 70,067
Turnout: 59.42%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	27,728	66.60%	59.33%
NAT	7,014	16.85%	29.82%
LIB	3,519	8.45%	1.24%
CON	3,374	8.10%	7.68%
OTH	0	0.00%	1.93%
LAB Majority	20,714	49.75%	Pred Maj 29.51%

Chance of winning

LAB

95.8%

NAT

4.2%

LIB

0.0%

CON

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East
County/Area: Glasgow area (West Scotland)
MP: Gregg McClymont (LAB)
Electorate: 64,037
Turnout: 64.26%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	23,549	57.23%	49.96%
NAT	9,794	23.80%	37.58%
LIB	3,924	9.54%	1.40%
CON	3,407	8.28%	7.85%
OTH	476	1.16%	3.21%
LAB Majority	13,755	33.43%	Pred Maj 12.37%

Chance of winning

LAB

78.8%

NAT

21.2%

LIB

0.0%

CON

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Dumfries and Galloway
County/Area: Dumfries and Galloway (West Scotland)
MP: Russell Brown (LAB)
Electorate: 74,581
Turnout: 69.95%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	23,950	45.90%	38.63%
CON	16,501	31.63%	30.59%
NAT	6,419	12.30%	26.09%
LIB	4,608	8.83%	1.29%
OTH	695	1.33%	3.39%
LAB Majority	7,449	14.28%	Pred Maj 8.04%

Chance of winning

LAB

64.7%

CON

17.5%

NAT

17.8%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale
County/Area: Dumfries and Galloway (West Scotland)
MP: David Mundell (CON)
Electorate: 66,627
Turnout: 68.88%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	17,457	38.04%	37.00%
LAB	13,263	28.90%	21.63%
LIB	9,080	19.79%	2.90%
NAT	4,945	10.78%	32.70%
OTH	1,147	2.50%	5.77%
CON Majority	4,194	9.14%	Pred Maj 4.30%

Chance of winning

CON

55.9%

LAB

11.2%

LIB

0.0%

NAT

32.8%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Dunbartonshire East
County/Area: Glasgow area (West Scotland)
MP: Jo Swinson (LIB)
Electorate: 63,795
Turnout: 75.16%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	18,551	38.69%	21.62%
LAB	16,367	34.13%	26.86%
CON	7,431	15.50%	14.69%
NAT	5,054	10.54%	32.42%
OTH	545	1.14%	4.40%
LIB Majority	2,184	4.55%	Pred Maj 5.56%

Chance of winning

LIB

10.2%

LAB

33.7%

CON

2.9%

NAT

52.7%

OTH

0.5%

Top

NAT Gain

Dunbartonshire West
County/Area: Glasgow area (West Scotland)
MP: Gemma Doyle (LAB)
Electorate: 66,085
Turnout: 63.96%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	25,905	61.29%	54.02%
NAT	8,497	20.10%	32.81%
LIB	3,434	8.12%	1.19%
CON	3,242	7.67%	7.27%
OTH	1,188	2.81%	4.71%
LAB Majority	17,408	41.19%	Pred Maj 21.21%

Chance of winning

LAB

90.2%

NAT

9.8%

LIB

0.0%

CON

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Dundee East
County/Area: Tayside (East Scotland)
MP: Stewart Hosie (NAT)
Electorate: 65,471
Turnout: 61.96%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
NAT	15,350	37.84%	52.70%
LAB	13,529	33.35%	26.08%
CON	6,177	15.23%	14.44%
LIB	4,285	10.56%	1.55%
OTH	1,227	3.02%	5.24%
NAT Majority	1,821	4.49%	Pred Maj 26.62%

Chance of winning

NAT

95.2%

LAB

4.8%

CON

0.0%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Dundee West
County/Area: Tayside (East Scotland)
MP: James McGovern (LAB)
Electorate: 63,013
Turnout: 58.92%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	17,994	48.47%	41.20%
NAT	10,716	28.86%	44.08%
LIB	4,233	11.40%	1.67%
CON	3,461	9.32%	8.84%
OTH	722	1.94%	4.21%
LAB Majority	7,278	19.60%	Pred Maj 2.88%

Chance of winning

LAB

45.6%

NAT

54.4%

LIB

0.0%

CON

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

NAT Gain

Dunfermline and West Fife
County/Area: Fife (East Scotland)
MP: Thomas Docherty (LAB)
Electorate: 73,769
Turnout: 66.35%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	22,639	46.25%	38.98%
LIB	17,169	35.08%	18.01%
NAT	5,201	10.63%	32.11%
CON	3,305	6.75%	6.40%
OTH	633	1.29%	4.50%
LAB Majority	5,470	11.18%	Pred Maj 6.87%

Chance of winning

LAB

65.2%

LIB

2.1%

NAT

32.4%

CON

0.1%

OTH

0.2%

Top

East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow
County/Area: Ayrshire and Lanark (West Scotland)
MP: Michael McCann (LAB)
Electorate: 76,534
Turnout: 66.57%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	26,241	51.51%	44.24%
NAT	11,738	23.04%	37.32%
CON	6,613	12.98%	12.31%
LIB	5,052	9.92%	1.45%
OTH	1,302	2.56%	4.69%
LAB Majority	14,503	28.47%	Pred Maj 6.92%

Chance of winning

LAB

65.3%

NAT

34.7%

CON

0.0%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

East Lothian
County/Area: Edinburgh area (East Scotland)
MP: Fiona O'Donnell (LAB)
Electorate: 73,438
Turnout: 66.94%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	21,919	44.59%	37.32%
CON	9,661	19.65%	18.63%
LIB	8,288	16.86%	2.47%
NAT	7,883	16.04%	35.77%
OTH	1,410	2.87%	5.81%
LAB Majority	12,258	24.93%	Pred Maj 1.54%

Chance of winning

LAB

55.2%

CON

2.0%

LIB

0.0%

NAT

42.8%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Edinburgh East
County/Area: Edinburgh area (East Scotland)
MP: Sheila Gilmore (LAB)
Electorate: 60,941
Turnout: 65.42%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	17,314	43.43%	36.16%
NAT	8,133	20.40%	41.66%
LIB	7,751	19.44%	2.85%
CON	4,358	10.93%	10.36%
MIN	2,035	5.10%	5.10%
OTH	274	0.69%	3.86%
LAB Majority	9,181	23.03%	Pred Maj 5.50%

Chance of winning

LAB

43.2%

NAT

56.5%

LIB

0.0%

CON

0.2%

MIN

0.0%

OTH

0.1%

Top

NAT Gain

Edinburgh North and Leith
County/Area: Edinburgh area (East Scotland)
MP: Mark Lazarowicz (LAB)
Electorate: 69,204
Turnout: 68.43%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	17,740	37.46%	30.19%
LIB	16,016	33.82%	16.75%
CON	7,079	14.95%	14.17%
NAT	4,568	9.65%	31.50%
MIN	1,062	2.24%	2.24%
OTH	891	1.88%	5.14%
LAB Majority	1,724	3.64%	Pred Maj 1.31%

Chance of winning

LAB

45.0%

LIB

4.7%

CON

2.5%

NAT

47.2%

MIN

0.0%

OTH

0.6%

Top

NAT Gain

Edinburgh South
County/Area: Edinburgh area (East Scotland)
MP: Ian Murray (LAB)
Electorate: 59,354
Turnout: 73.80%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	15,215	34.74%	27.47%
LIB	14,899	34.02%	16.94%
CON	9,452	21.58%	20.54%
NAT	3,354	7.66%	29.74%
OTH	881	2.01%	5.31%
LAB Majority	316	0.72%	Pred Maj 2.28%

Chance of winning

LAB

37.7%

LIB

5.2%

CON

11.1%

NAT

45.2%

OTH

0.8%

Top

NAT Gain

Edinburgh South West
County/Area: Edinburgh area (East Scotland)
MP: Alistair Darling (LAB)
Electorate: 66,359
Turnout: 68.51%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	19,473	42.83%	35.56%
CON	11,026	24.25%	23.22%
LIB	8,194	18.02%	2.64%
NAT	5,530	12.16%	32.78%
OTH	1,239	2.73%	5.80%
LAB Majority	8,447	18.58%	Pred Maj 2.78%

Chance of winning

LAB

54.3%

CON

7.3%

LIB

0.0%

NAT

38.3%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Edinburgh West
County/Area: Edinburgh area (East Scotland)
MP: Michael Crockart (LIB)
Electorate: 65,161
Turnout: 71.28%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	16,684	35.92%	18.85%
LAB	12,881	27.73%	20.46%
CON	10,767	23.18%	22.14%
NAT	6,115	13.17%	35.25%
OTH	0	0.00%	3.29%
LIB Majority	3,803	8.19%	Pred Maj 13.11%

Chance of winning

LIB

6.2%

LAB

17.9%

CON

11.6%

NAT

63.8%

OTH

0.5%

Top

NAT Gain

Falkirk
County/Area: Central (East Scotland)
MP: Eric Joyce (LAB)
Electorate: 81,869
Turnout: 62.02%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	23,207	45.70%	38.43%
NAT	15,364	30.26%	44.73%
CON	5,698	11.22%	10.64%
LIB	5,225	10.29%	1.51%
OTH	1,283	2.53%	4.69%
LAB Majority	7,843	15.45%	Pred Maj 6.30%

Chance of winning

LAB

37.4%

NAT

62.6%

CON

0.0%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

NAT Gain

Fife North East
County/Area: Fife (East Scotland)
MP: Sir Menzies Campbell (LIB)
Electorate: 62,969
Turnout: 63.62%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	17,763	44.34%	27.27%
CON	8,715	21.75%	20.71%
LAB	6,869	17.15%	10.91%
NAT	5,685	14.19%	35.37%
OTH	1,032	2.58%	5.74%
LIB Majority	9,048	22.58%	Pred Maj 8.11%

Chance of winning

LIB

24.5%

CON

7.2%

LAB

5.4%

NAT

62.5%

OTH

0.4%

Top

NAT Gain

Glasgow Central
County/Area: Glasgow area (West Scotland)
MP: Anas Sarwar (LAB)
Electorate: 60,062
Turnout: 50.91%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	15,908	52.02%	44.75%
NAT	5,357	17.52%	36.33%
LIB	5,010	16.38%	2.40%
CON	2,158	7.06%	6.69%
OTH	1,347	4.40%	7.21%
MIN	800	2.62%	2.62%
LAB Majority	10,551	34.50%	Pred Maj 8.42%

Chance of winning

LAB

70.9%

NAT

29.0%

LIB

0.0%

CON

0.0%

OTH

0.1%

MIN

0.0%

Top

Glasgow East
County/Area: Glasgow area (West Scotland)
MP: Margaret Curran (LAB)
Electorate: 61,516
Turnout: 52.29%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	19,797	61.55%	54.28%
NAT	7,957	24.74%	35.00%
LIB	1,617	5.03%	0.74%
CON	1,453	4.52%	4.28%
MIN	677	2.10%	2.10%
OTH	663	2.06%	3.59%
LAB Majority	11,840	36.81%	Pred Maj 19.28%

Chance of winning

LAB

88.5%

NAT

11.5%

LIB

0.0%

CON

0.0%

MIN

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Glasgow North
County/Area: Glasgow area (West Scotland)
MP: Ann McKechin (LAB)
Electorate: 51,416
Turnout: 57.59%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	13,181	44.51%	37.24%
LIB	9,283	31.35%	14.28%
NAT	3,530	11.92%	33.42%
CON	2,089	7.05%	6.69%
OTH	1,530	5.17%	8.37%
LAB Majority	3,898	13.16%	Pred Maj 3.82%

Chance of winning

LAB

59.1%

LIB

1.3%

NAT

38.4%

CON

0.1%

OTH

1.1%

Top

Glasgow North East
County/Area: Glasgow area (West Scotland)
MP: Willie Bain (LAB)
Electorate: 59,859
Turnout: 49.13%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	20,100	68.35%	61.08%
NAT	4,158	14.14%	26.42%
LIB	2,262	7.69%	1.13%
CON	1,569	5.34%	5.06%
MIN	798	2.71%	2.71%
OTH	522	1.77%	3.61%
LAB Majority	15,942	54.21%	Pred Maj 34.66%

Chance of winning

LAB

97.0%

NAT

3.0%

LIB

0.0%

CON

0.0%

MIN

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Glasgow North West
County/Area: Glasgow area (West Scotland)
MP: John Robertson (LAB)
Electorate: 60,968
Turnout: 58.36%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	19,233	54.05%	46.78%
LIB	5,622	15.80%	2.31%
NAT	5,430	15.26%	33.77%
CON	3,537	9.94%	9.42%
OTH	1,760	4.95%	7.71%
LAB Majority	13,611	38.25%	Pred Maj 13.01%

Chance of winning

LAB

79.2%

LIB

0.0%

NAT

20.7%

CON

0.0%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Glasgow South
County/Area: Glasgow area (West Scotland)
MP: Tom Harris (LAB)
Electorate: 65,029
Turnout: 61.66%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	20,736	51.72%	44.45%
NAT	8,078	20.15%	35.77%
LIB	4,739	11.82%	1.73%
CON	4,592	11.45%	10.86%
OTH	1,949	4.86%	7.19%
LAB Majority	12,658	31.57%	Pred Maj 8.68%

Chance of winning

LAB

69.1%

NAT

30.8%

LIB

0.0%

CON

0.0%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Glasgow South West
County/Area: Glasgow area (West Scotland)
MP: Ian Davidson (LAB)
Electorate: 58,182
Turnout: 54.62%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	19,863	62.50%	55.23%
NAT	5,192	16.34%	29.67%
LIB	2,870	9.03%	1.32%
CON	2,084	6.56%	6.22%
OTH	1,772	5.58%	7.56%
LAB Majority	14,671	46.16%	Pred Maj 25.56%

Chance of winning

LAB

94.3%

NAT

5.7%

LIB

0.0%

CON

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Glenrothes
County/Area: Fife (East Scotland)
MP: Lindsay Roy (LAB)
Electorate: 67,893
Turnout: 59.65%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	25,247	62.34%	55.07%
NAT	8,799	21.73%	34.08%
LIB	3,108	7.67%	1.12%
CON	2,922	7.21%	6.84%
OTH	425	1.05%	2.89%
LAB Majority	16,448	40.61%	Pred Maj 20.99%

Chance of winning

LAB

90.2%

NAT

9.8%

LIB

0.0%

CON

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Gordon
County/Area: Grampian (East Scotland)
MP: Malcolm Bruce (LIB)
Electorate: 73,420
Turnout: 66.43%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	17,575	36.03%	18.96%
NAT	10,827	22.20%	44.22%
LAB	9,811	20.11%	12.84%
CON	9,111	18.68%	17.71%
OTH	1,451	2.97%	6.26%
LIB Majority	6,748	13.83%	Pred Maj 25.26%

Chance of winning

LIB

3.2%

NAT

87.9%

LAB

6.3%

CON

2.5%

OTH

0.1%

Top

NAT Gain

Inverclyde
County/Area: Glasgow area (West Scotland)
MP: David Cairns (LAB)
Electorate: 59,209
Turnout: 63.36%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	20,993	55.96%	48.69%
NAT	6,577	17.53%	34.32%
LIB	5,007	13.35%	1.95%
CON	4,502	12.00%	11.38%
OTH	433	1.15%	3.66%
LAB Majority	14,416	38.43%	Pred Maj 14.38%

Result shown is original general election result. Mr Iain McKenzie (Lab) held the seat in a by-election on 30 June 2011, after the death of Mr David Cairns in May.

Chance of winning

LAB

82.2%

NAT

17.8%

LIB

0.0%

CON

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey
County/Area: Highland (East Scotland)
MP: Danny Alexander (LIB)
Electorate: 72,528
Turnout: 64.92%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	19,172	40.72%	23.65%
LAB	10,407	22.10%	14.83%
NAT	8,803	18.70%	40.48%
CON	6,278	13.33%	12.64%
OTH	2,426	5.15%	8.40%
LIB Majority	8,765	18.61%	Pred Maj 16.83%

Chance of winning

LIB

9.9%

LAB

8.8%

NAT

79.8%

CON

0.9%

OTH

0.6%

Top

NAT Gain

Kilmarnock and Loudoun
County/Area: Ayrshire and Lanark (West Scotland)
MP: Cathy Jamieson (LAB)
Electorate: 74,131
Turnout: 62.80%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	24,460	52.54%	45.27%
NAT	12,082	25.95%	38.37%
CON	6,592	14.16%	13.43%
LIB	3,419	7.34%	1.08%
OTH	0	0.00%	1.85%
LAB Majority	12,378	26.59%	Pred Maj 6.90%

Chance of winning

LAB

64.9%

NAT

35.1%

CON

0.0%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath
County/Area: Fife (East Scotland)
MP: Gordon Brown (LAB)
Electorate: 73,665
Turnout: 62.18%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	29,559	64.54%	57.27%
NAT	6,550	14.30%	27.97%
LIB	4,269	9.32%	1.37%
CON	4,258	9.30%	8.81%
OTH	1,166	2.55%	4.58%
LAB Majority	23,009	50.24%	Pred Maj 29.30%

Chance of winning

LAB

96.0%

NAT

4.0%

LIB

0.0%

CON

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Lanark and Hamilton East
County/Area: Ayrshire and Lanark (West Scotland)
MP: Jimmy Hood (LAB)
Electorate: 74,773
Turnout: 62.26%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	23,258	49.96%	42.69%
NAT	9,780	21.01%	36.39%
CON	6,981	15.00%	14.22%
LIB	5,249	11.28%	1.65%
OTH	1,286	2.76%	5.06%
LAB Majority	13,478	28.95%	Pred Maj 6.30%

Chance of winning

LAB

64.7%

NAT

35.3%

CON

0.0%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Linlithgow and East Falkirk
County/Area: Edinburgh area (East Scotland)
MP: Michael Connarty (LAB)
Electorate: 80,907
Turnout: 63.59%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	25,634	49.82%	42.55%
NAT	13,081	25.42%	41.80%
LIB	6,589	12.81%	1.88%
CON	6,146	11.95%	11.33%
OTH	0	0.00%	2.44%
LAB Majority	12,553	24.40%	Pred Maj 0.75%

Chance of winning

LAB

54.8%

NAT

45.2%

LIB

0.0%

CON

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Livingston
County/Area: Edinburgh area (East Scotland)
MP: Graeme Morrice (LAB)
Electorate: 75,924
Turnout: 63.10%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	23,215	48.46%	41.19%
NAT	12,424	25.93%	40.99%
LIB	5,316	11.10%	1.63%
CON	5,158	10.77%	10.21%
OTH	1,794	3.74%	5.99%
LAB Majority	10,791	22.52%	Pred Maj 0.20%

Chance of winning

LAB

51.5%

NAT

48.5%

LIB

0.0%

CON

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Midlothian
County/Area: Edinburgh area (East Scotland)
MP: David Hamilton (LAB)
Electorate: 61,387
Turnout: 63.93%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	18,449	47.01%	39.74%
NAT	8,100	20.64%	40.21%
LIB	6,711	17.10%	2.50%
CON	4,661	11.88%	11.26%
OTH	1,321	3.37%	6.29%
LAB Majority	10,349	26.37%	Pred Maj 0.46%

Chance of winning

LAB

51.9%

NAT

47.9%

LIB

0.0%

CON

0.1%

OTH

0.1%

Top

NAT Gain

Moray
County/Area: Grampian (East Scotland)
MP: Angus Robertson (NAT)
Electorate: 65,925
Turnout: 62.20%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
NAT	16,273	39.69%	56.78%
CON	10,683	26.05%	25.02%
LAB	7,007	17.09%	10.88%
LIB	5,956	14.53%	2.13%
OTH	1,085	2.65%	5.20%
NAT Majority	5,590	13.63%	Pred Maj 31.77%

Chance of winning

NAT

99.5%

CON

0.3%

LAB

0.2%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Motherwell and Wishaw
County/Area: Glasgow area (West Scotland)
MP: Frank Roy (LAB)
Electorate: 66,918
Turnout: 58.46%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	23,910	61.11%	53.84%
NAT	7,104	18.16%	32.20%
LIB	3,840	9.82%	1.44%
CON	3,660	9.36%	8.87%
OTH	609	1.56%	3.65%
LAB Majority	16,806	42.96%	Pred Maj 21.65%

Chance of winning

LAB

90.8%

NAT

9.2%

LIB

0.0%

CON

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles)
County/Area: Western Isles (East Scotland)
MP: Angus MacNeil (NAT)
Electorate: 22,266
Turnout: 66.10%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
NAT	6,723	45.68%	57.74%
LAB	4,838	32.87%	25.60%
MIN	1,412	9.59%	9.59%
LIB	1,097	7.45%	1.09%
CON	647	4.40%	4.17%
OTH	0	0.00%	1.80%
NAT Majority	1,885	12.81%	Pred Maj 32.14%

Chance of winning

NAT

99.7%

LAB

0.3%

MIN

0.0%

LIB

0.0%

CON

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Ochil and South Perthshire
County/Area: Central (East Scotland)
MP: Gordon Banks (LAB)
Electorate: 75,115
Turnout: 67.19%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	19,131	37.91%	30.64%
NAT	13,944	27.63%	43.33%
CON	10,342	20.49%	19.45%
LIB	5,754	11.40%	1.67%
OTH	1,298	2.57%	4.91%
LAB Majority	5,187	10.28%	Pred Maj 12.69%

Chance of winning

LAB

23.4%

NAT

76.1%

CON

0.5%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

NAT Gain

Orkney and Shetland
County/Area: Orkney and Shetland (East Scotland)
MP: Alistair Carmichael (LIB)
Electorate: 33,085
Turnout: 58.47%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	11,989	61.97%	44.90%
LAB	2,061	10.65%	6.78%
NAT	2,042	10.56%	29.25%
CON	2,032	10.50%	9.96%
OTH	1,222	6.32%	9.11%
LIB Majority	9,928	51.32%	Pred Maj 15.65%

Chance of winning

LIB

72.0%

LAB

1.5%

NAT

25.1%

CON

0.3%

OTH

1.1%

Top

Paisley and Renfrewshire North
County/Area: Glasgow area (West Scotland)
MP: James Sheridan (LAB)
Electorate: 63,704
Turnout: 68.61%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	23,613	54.03%	46.76%
NAT	8,333	19.07%	33.86%
CON	6,381	14.60%	13.84%
LIB	4,597	10.52%	1.54%
OTH	783	1.79%	4.00%
LAB Majority	15,280	34.96%	Pred Maj 12.89%

Chance of winning

LAB

77.9%

NAT

22.1%

CON

0.0%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Paisley and Renfrewshire South
County/Area: Glasgow area (West Scotland)
MP: Douglas Alexander (LAB)
Electorate: 61,197
Turnout: 65.36%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	23,842	59.61%	52.34%
NAT	7,228	18.07%	31.93%
CON	3,979	9.95%	9.43%
LIB	3,812	9.53%	1.40%
OTH	1,137	2.84%	4.91%
LAB Majority	16,614	41.54%	Pred Maj 20.41%

Chance of winning

LAB

88.9%

NAT

11.1%

CON

0.0%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Perth and North Perthshire
County/Area: Tayside (East Scotland)
MP: Peter Wishart (NAT)
Electorate: 72,141
Turnout: 66.91%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
NAT	19,118	39.61%	54.87%
CON	14,739	30.54%	29.50%
LAB	7,923	16.41%	10.45%
LIB	5,954	12.34%	1.81%
OTH	534	1.11%	3.38%
NAT Majority	4,379	9.07%	Pred Maj 25.37%

Chance of winning

NAT

99.1%

CON

0.7%

LAB

0.2%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Renfrewshire East
County/Area: Glasgow area (West Scotland)
MP: Jim Murphy (LAB)
Electorate: 66,249
Turnout: 77.26%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	25,987	50.77%	43.50%
CON	15,567	30.42%	29.38%
LIB	4,720	9.22%	1.35%
NAT	4,535	8.86%	22.94%
OTH	372	0.73%	2.83%
LAB Majority	10,420	20.36%	Pred Maj 14.13%

Chance of winning

LAB

81.6%

CON

8.5%

LIB

0.0%

NAT

9.9%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Ross Skye and Lochaber
County/Area: Highland (East Scotland)
MP: Charles Kennedy (LIB)
Electorate: 51,836
Turnout: 67.21%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	18,335	52.63%	35.56%
LAB	5,265	15.11%	9.62%
NAT	5,263	15.11%	35.29%
CON	4,260	12.23%	11.59%
OTH	1,715	4.92%	7.93%
LIB Majority	13,070	37.52%	Pred Maj 0.26%

Chance of winning

LIB

49.0%

LAB

2.1%

NAT

48.2%

CON

0.3%

OTH

0.4%

Top

Rutherglen and Hamilton West
County/Area: Ayrshire and Lanark (West Scotland)
MP: Tom Greatrex (LAB)
Electorate: 76,408
Turnout: 61.49%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	28,566	60.80%	53.53%
NAT	7,564	16.10%	31.77%
LIB	5,636	12.00%	1.76%
CON	4,540	9.66%	9.16%
OTH	675	1.44%	3.77%
LAB Majority	21,002	44.70%	Pred Maj 21.76%

Chance of winning

LAB

91.1%

NAT

8.9%

LIB

0.0%

CON

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Stirling
County/Area: Central (East Scotland)
MP: Anne McGuire (LAB)
Electorate: 66,080
Turnout: 70.89%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	19,558	41.75%	34.48%
CON	11,254	24.03%	22.99%
NAT	8,091	17.27%	35.28%
LIB	6,797	14.51%	2.13%
OTH	1,141	2.44%	5.12%
LAB Majority	8,304	17.73%	Pred Maj 0.80%

Chance of winning

LAB

47.0%

CON

5.0%

NAT

48.0%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

NAT Gain