Constituency List: England T-Z

Tamworth

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Christopher Pincher (CON)
County/Area:	Staffordshire (West Midlands)
Electorate:	71,572
Turnout:	64.3%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	30,542	66.3%	38.2%
LAB	10,908	23.7%	41.1%
LIB	2,426	5.3%	3.4%
OTH	1,245	2.7%	0.7%
Green	935	2.0%	3.1%
Reform	0	0.0%	12.3%
MIN	0	0.0%	1.1%
CON Majority	19,634	42.6%	2.9% Pred Maj

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Result shown is the original general election result, before the resignation of Chris Pincher in September 2023. Sarah Edwards (Labour) won the seat in a by-election on 19 October 2023.

Chance of winning

CON

40%

LAB

59%

LIB

OTH

Green

Reform

MIN

Tatton

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Esther McVey (CON)
County/Area:	Cheshire (North West)
Electorate:	69,018
Turnout:	70.9%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	28,277	57.7%	30.9%
LAB	10,890	22.2%	36.1%
LIB	7,712	15.7%	10.4%
Green	2,088	4.3%	6.6%
Reform	0	0.0%	15.4%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.6%
CON Majority	17,387	35.5%	5.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

36%

LAB

63%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Taunton Deane

Prediction: LIB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Rebecca Pow (CON)
County/Area:	Somerset (South West)
Electorate:	88,676
Turnout:	71.9%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	34,164	53.6%	28.6%
LIB	22,464	35.2%	33.8%
LAB	4,715	7.4%	20.3%
MIN	2,390	3.8%	0.0%
Reform	0	0.0%	13.0%
Green	0	0.0%	3.9%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.3%
CON Majority	11,700	18.4%	5.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

31%

LIB

60%

LAB

MIN

Reform

Green

OTH

Telford

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Lucy Allan (CON)
County/Area:	Shropshire (West Midlands)
Electorate:	68,921
Turnout:	62.1%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	25,546	59.7%	28.7%
LAB	14,605	34.1%	50.7%
LIB	2,674	6.2%	3.9%
Reform	0	0.0%	11.8%
Green	0	0.0%	4.6%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.4%
CON Majority	10,941	25.5%	22.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

LAB

92%

LIB

Reform

Green

OTH

Tewkesbury

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Laurence Robertson (CON)
County/Area:	Gloucestershire (South West)
Electorate:	83,958
Turnout:	72.8%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	35,728	58.4%	30.9%
LIB	13,318	21.8%	21.0%
LAB	9,310	15.2%	26.8%
Green	2,784	4.6%	6.8%
Reform	0	0.0%	14.0%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.4%
CON Majority	22,410	36.7%	4.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

55%

LIB

12%

LAB

31%

Green

Reform

OTH

Thanet North

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Roger Gale (CON)
County/Area:	Kent (South East)
Electorate:	72,756
Turnout:	66.2%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	30,066	62.4%	35.4%
LAB	12,877	26.7%	37.4%
LIB	3,439	7.1%	7.0%
Green	1,796	3.7%	6.0%
Reform	0	0.0%	13.7%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.5%
CON Majority	17,189	35.7%	2.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

44%

LAB

55%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Thanet South

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Craig Mackinlay (CON)
County/Area:	Kent (South East)
Electorate:	73,223
Turnout:	65.9%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	27,084	56.1%	31.0%
LAB	16,497	34.2%	43.0%
LIB	2,727	5.7%	5.8%
Green	1,949	4.0%	6.8%
Reform	0	0.0%	13.0%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.4%
CON Majority	10,587	21.9%	12.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

21%

LAB

79%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Thirsk and Malton

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Kevin Hollinrake (CON)
County/Area:	North Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	80,991
Turnout:	69.9%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	35,634	63.0%	33.2%
LAB	10,480	18.5%	32.2%
LIB	6,774	12.0%	10.9%
Green	2,263	4.0%	6.0%
OTH	1,437	2.5%	0.4%
Reform	0	0.0%	17.4%
CON Majority	25,154	44.5%	1.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

50%

LAB

47%

LIB

Green

OTH

Reform

Thornbury and Yate

Prediction: LIB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Luke Hall (CON)
County/Area:	Bristol area (South West)
Electorate:	69,492
Turnout:	75.2%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	30,202	57.8%	29.7%
LIB	17,833	34.1%	35.7%
LAB	4,208	8.1%	18.5%
Reform	0	0.0%	12.0%
Green	0	0.0%	3.8%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.2%
CON Majority	12,369	23.7%	6.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

30%

LIB

66%

LAB

Reform

Green

OTH

Thurrock

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Jackie Doyle-Price (CON)
County/Area:	Essex (Anglia)
Electorate:	79,659
Turnout:	59.6%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	27,795	58.6%	28.0%
LAB	16,313	34.4%	48.4%
LIB	1,510	3.2%	4.6%
OTH	1,042	2.2%	0.5%
Green	807	1.7%	5.1%
Reform	0	0.0%	13.4%
CON Majority	11,482	24.2%	20.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

10%

LAB

90%

LIB

OTH

Green

Reform

Tiverton and Honiton

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Neil Parish (CON)
County/Area:	Devon (South West)
Electorate:	82,953
Turnout:	71.9%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	35,893	60.2%	34.5%
LAB	11,654	19.5%	16.1%
LIB	8,807	14.8%	33.9%
Green	2,291	3.8%	3.9%
OTH	968	1.6%	0.4%
Reform	0	0.0%	11.2%
CON Majority	24,239	40.7%	0.6% Pred Maj

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Result shown is the original general election result, before the resignation of Mr Neil Parish. Richard Foord (Lib Dem) won the seat in a by-election on 23 June 2022.

Chance of winning

CON

50%

LAB

LIB

47%

Green

OTH

Reform

Tonbridge and Malling

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Tom Tugendhat (CON)
County/Area:	Kent (South East)
Electorate:	79,278
Turnout:	71.9%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	35,784	62.8%	34.5%
LIB	8,843	15.5%	15.3%
LAB	8,286	14.5%	26.0%
Green	4,090	7.2%	9.5%
Reform	0	0.0%	14.3%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.4%
CON Majority	26,941	47.3%	8.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

69%

LIB

LAB

26%

Green

Reform

OTH

Tooting

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Rosena Allin-Khan (LAB)
County/Area:	Wandsworth (London)
Electorate:	76,954
Turnout:	76.0%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	30,811	52.7%	62.9%
CON	16,504	28.2%	13.6%
LIB	8,305	14.2%	5.3%
Green	2,314	4.0%	7.8%
Reform	462	0.8%	10.1%
OTH	77	0.1%	0.3%
LAB Majority	14,307	24.5%	49.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Torbay

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Kevin Foster (CON)
County/Area:	Devon (South West)
Electorate:	75,054
Turnout:	67.2%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	29,863	59.2%	32.4%
LIB	12,114	24.0%	25.1%
LAB	6,562	13.0%	23.9%
Green	1,239	2.5%	4.5%
OTH	648	1.3%	0.4%
Reform	0	0.0%	13.7%
CON Majority	17,749	35.2%	7.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

58%

LIB

22%

LAB

19%

Green

OTH

Reform

Totnes

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Anthony Mangnall (CON)
County/Area:	Devon (South West)
Electorate:	69,863
Turnout:	74.7%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	27,751	53.2%	30.3%
LIB	15,027	28.8%	25.7%
LAB	8,860	17.0%	26.5%
OTH	544	1.0%	0.3%
Reform	0	0.0%	12.8%
Green	0	0.0%	4.5%
CON Majority	12,724	24.4%	3.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

45%

LIB

25%

LAB

28%

OTH

Reform

Green

Tottenham

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	David Lammy (LAB)
County/Area:	Haringey (London)
Electorate:	75,740
Turnout:	61.9%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	35,621	76.0%	76.8%
CON	5,446	11.6%	3.8%
LIB	3,168	6.8%	3.3%
Green	1,873	4.0%	7.1%
Reform	527	1.1%	8.6%
OTH	221	0.5%	0.4%
LAB Majority	30,175	64.4%	68.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Truro and Falmouth

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Cherilyn Mackrory (CON)
County/Area:	Cornwall (South West)
Electorate:	76,719
Turnout:	77.2%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	27,237	46.0%	24.3%
LAB	22,676	38.3%	42.9%
LIB	7,150	12.1%	13.5%
Green	1,714	2.9%	6.3%
OTH	413	0.7%	0.4%
Reform	0	0.0%	12.7%
CON Majority	4,561	7.7%	18.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

10%

LAB

89%

LIB

Green

OTH

Reform

Tunbridge Wells

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Greg Clark (CON)
County/Area:	Kent (South East)
Electorate:	74,823
Turnout:	73.0%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	30,119	55.1%	30.4%
LIB	15,474	28.3%	20.9%
LAB	8,098	14.8%	30.3%
OTH	959	1.8%	0.4%
Reform	0	0.0%	12.9%
Green	0	0.0%	5.2%
CON Majority	14,645	26.8%	0.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

46%

LIB

LAB

44%

OTH

Reform

Green

Twickenham

Prediction: LIB hold

MP at 2019:	Munira Wilson (LIB)
County/Area:	Richmond Upon Thames (London)
Electorate:	84,906
Turnout:	76.0%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	36,166	56.1%	48.2%
CON	22,045	34.2%	19.4%
LAB	5,476	8.5%	16.3%
Reform	816	1.3%	11.2%
Green	0	0.0%	4.7%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.2%
LIB Majority	14,121	21.9%	28.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LIB

96%

CON

LAB

Reform

Green

OTH

Tynemouth

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Alan Campbell (LAB)
County/Area:	Newcastle area (North East)
Electorate:	77,261
Turnout:	72.5%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	26,928	48.1%	57.7%
CON	22,071	39.4%	19.1%
LIB	3,791	6.8%	4.3%
Reform	1,963	3.5%	12.6%
Green	1,281	2.3%	5.8%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.5%
LAB Majority	4,857	8.7%	38.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

LIB

Reform

Green

OTH

Tyneside North

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Mary Glindon (LAB)
County/Area:	Newcastle area (North East)
Electorate:	78,902
Turnout:	63.9%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	25,051	49.7%	60.6%
CON	15,490	30.7%	13.2%
Reform	5,254	10.4%	15.1%
LIB	3,241	6.4%	4.9%
Green	1,393	2.8%	5.6%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.6%
LAB Majority	9,561	19.0%	45.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

Reform

LIB

Green

OTH

Uxbridge and South Ruislip

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Boris Johnson (CON)
County/Area:	Hillingdon (London)
Electorate:	70,365
Turnout:	68.5%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	25,351	52.6%	38.1%
LAB	18,141	37.6%	44.3%
LIB	3,026	6.3%	3.2%
Green	1,090	2.3%	3.4%
OTH	579	1.2%	0.8%
Reform	0	0.0%	9.1%
MIN	0	0.0%	1.2%
CON Majority	7,210	15.0%	6.2% Pred Maj

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Result shown is the original general election result, before the resignation of Boris Johnson. Steve Tuckwell (Con) held the seat in a by-election on 20 July 2023.

Chance of winning

CON

35%

LAB

65%

LIB

Green

OTH

Reform

MIN

Vauxhall

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Florence Eshalomi (LAB)
County/Area:	Lambeth (London)
Electorate:	88,659
Turnout:	63.5%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	31,615	56.1%	66.6%
LIB	12,003	21.3%	6.8%
CON	9,422	16.7%	6.8%
Green	2,516	4.5%	9.1%
Reform	641	1.1%	10.4%
OTH	136	0.2%	0.3%
LAB Majority	19,612	34.8%	56.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

LIB

CON

Green

Reform

OTH

Wakefield

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Imran Ahmad-Khan (CON)
County/Area:	West Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	70,192
Turnout:	64.1%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	21,283	47.3%	26.2%
LAB	17,925	39.8%	49.4%
Reform	2,725	6.1%	13.6%
LIB	1,772	3.9%	2.3%
OTH	1,322	2.9%	1.6%
Green	0	0.0%	3.1%
MIN	0	0.0%	3.8%
CON Majority	3,358	7.5%	23.3% Pred Maj

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Result shown is the original general election result, before the resignation of Mr Imran Ahmad Khan. Simon Lightwood (Labour) won the seat in a by-election on 23 June 2022.

Chance of winning

CON

LAB

94%

Reform

LIB

OTH

Green

MIN

Wallasey

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Angela Eagle (LAB)
County/Area:	Merseyside (North West)
Electorate:	66,310
Turnout:	70.1%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	29,901	64.3%	68.9%
CON	11,579	24.9%	11.4%
Reform	2,037	4.4%	11.1%
LIB	1,843	4.0%	3.1%
Green	1,132	2.4%	5.1%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.5%
LAB Majority	18,322	39.4%	57.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

Reform

LIB

Green

OTH

Walsall North

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Eddie Hughes (CON)
County/Area:	Black Country (West Midlands)
Electorate:	67,177
Turnout:	54.4%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	23,334	63.8%	31.0%
LAB	11,369	31.1%	47.6%
LIB	1,236	3.4%	3.9%
Green	617	1.7%	4.2%
Reform	0	0.0%	12.9%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.5%
CON Majority	11,965	32.7%	16.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

13%

LAB

87%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Walsall South

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Valerie Vaz (LAB)
County/Area:	Black Country (West Midlands)
Electorate:	68,024
Turnout:	62.4%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	20,872	49.1%	59.7%
CON	17,416	41.0%	21.4%
Reform	1,660	3.9%	11.4%
LIB	1,602	3.8%	3.4%
Green	634	1.5%	3.6%
OTH	288	0.7%	0.5%
LAB Majority	3,456	8.1%	38.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

99%

CON

Reform

LIB

Green

OTH

Walthamstow

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Stella Creasy (LAB)
County/Area:	Waltham Forest (London)
Electorate:	70,267
Turnout:	68.8%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	36,784	76.1%	77.2%
CON	5,922	12.3%	5.0%
LIB	2,874	5.9%	2.8%
Green	1,733	3.6%	6.3%
Reform	768	1.6%	8.4%
OTH	254	0.5%	0.3%
LAB Majority	30,862	63.9%	68.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Wansbeck

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Ian Lavery (LAB)
County/Area:	Northumberland (North East)
Electorate:	63,339
Turnout:	64.0%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	17,124	42.3%	53.5%
CON	16,310	40.3%	19.1%
Reform	3,141	7.8%	15.5%
LIB	2,539	6.3%	5.9%
Green	1,217	3.0%	5.4%
OTH	178	0.4%	0.5%
LAB Majority	814	2.0%	34.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

98%

CON

Reform

LIB

Green

OTH

Wantage

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	David Johnston (CON)
County/Area:	Oxfordshire (South East)
Electorate:	90,867
Turnout:	73.9%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	34,085	50.7%	25.9%
LIB	21,432	31.9%	27.6%
LAB	10,181	15.2%	27.7%
OTH	1,475	2.2%	0.3%
Reform	0	0.0%	12.7%
Green	0	0.0%	5.7%
CON Majority	12,653	18.8%	0.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

29%

LIB

34%

LAB

35%

OTH

Reform

Green

Warley

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	John Spellar (LAB)
County/Area:	Black Country (West Midlands)
Electorate:	62,357
Turnout:	59.7%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	21,901	58.8%	68.6%
CON	10,390	27.9%	12.7%
Reform	2,469	6.6%	10.9%
LIB	1,588	4.3%	2.9%
Green	891	2.4%	4.4%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.5%
LAB Majority	11,511	30.9%	55.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

Reform

LIB

Green

OTH

Warrington North

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Charlotte Nichols (LAB)
County/Area:	Cheshire (North West)
Electorate:	72,235
Turnout:	64.6%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	20,611	44.2%	56.3%
CON	19,102	40.9%	19.9%
LIB	3,071	6.6%	4.0%
Reform	2,626	5.6%	13.9%
Green	1,257	2.7%	5.5%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.5%
LAB Majority	1,509	3.2%	36.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

99%

CON

LIB

Reform

Green

OTH

Warrington South

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Andy Carter (CON)
County/Area:	Cheshire (North West)
Electorate:	86,015
Turnout:	72.0%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	28,187	45.5%	22.8%
LAB	26,177	42.3%	51.4%
LIB	5,732	9.3%	5.9%
Reform	1,635	2.6%	14.4%
OTH	168	0.3%	0.6%
Green	0	0.0%	4.9%
CON Majority	2,010	3.2%	28.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

LAB

96%

LIB

Reform

OTH

Green

Warwick and Leamington

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Matt Western (LAB)
County/Area:	Warwickshire (West Midlands)
Electorate:	76,362
Turnout:	71.0%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	23,718	43.8%	48.4%
CON	22,929	42.3%	20.5%
LIB	4,995	9.2%	7.9%
Green	1,536	2.8%	8.9%
Reform	807	1.5%	13.7%
OTH	220	0.4%	0.6%
LAB Majority	789	1.5%	27.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

96%

CON

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Warwickshire North

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Craig Tracey (CON)
County/Area:	Warwickshire (West Midlands)
Electorate:	70,271
Turnout:	65.3%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	30,249	65.9%	34.7%
LAB	12,293	26.8%	41.2%
LIB	2,069	4.5%	5.9%
Green	1,303	2.8%	4.5%
Reform	0	0.0%	13.4%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.3%
CON Majority	17,956	39.1%	6.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

34%

LAB

66%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Washington and Sunderland West

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Sharon Hodgson (LAB)
County/Area:	Newcastle area (North East)
Electorate:	66,278
Turnout:	56.6%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	15,941	42.5%	58.4%
CON	12,218	32.6%	15.1%
Reform	5,439	14.5%	16.4%
LIB	2,071	5.5%	3.9%
Green	1,005	2.7%	5.5%
OTH	839	2.2%	0.7%
LAB Majority	3,723	9.9%	42.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

Reform

LIB

Green

OTH

Watford

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Dean Russell (CON)
County/Area:	Hertfordshire (Anglia)
Electorate:	83,359
Turnout:	69.7%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	26,421	45.5%	22.9%
LAB	21,988	37.9%	44.7%
LIB	9,323	16.1%	14.8%
OTH	333	0.6%	0.4%
Reform	0	0.0%	12.5%
Green	0	0.0%	4.7%
CON Majority	4,433	7.6%	21.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

LAB

92%

LIB

OTH

Reform

Green

Waveney

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Peter Aldous (CON)
County/Area:	Suffolk (Anglia)
Electorate:	82,791
Turnout:	61.8%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	31,778	62.2%	31.9%
LAB	13,776	26.9%	40.0%
Green	2,727	5.3%	7.3%
LIB	2,603	5.1%	6.2%
OTH	245	0.5%	0.4%
Reform	0	0.0%	14.2%
CON Majority	18,002	35.2%	8.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

30%

LAB

70%

Green

LIB

OTH

Reform

Wealden

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Nus Ghani (CON)
County/Area:	East Sussex (South East)
Electorate:	82,992
Turnout:	73.4%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	37,043	60.8%	33.6%
LIB	11,388	18.7%	17.5%
LAB	9,377	15.4%	24.9%
Green	3,099	5.1%	8.8%
Reform	0	0.0%	14.7%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.4%
CON Majority	25,655	42.1%	8.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

68%

LIB

LAB

23%

Green

Reform

OTH

Weaver Vale

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Mike Amesbury (LAB)
County/Area:	Cheshire (North West)
Electorate:	70,551
Turnout:	71.9%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	22,772	44.9%	53.7%
CON	22,210	43.8%	21.9%
LIB	3,300	6.5%	4.8%
Reform	1,380	2.7%	13.5%
Green	1,051	2.1%	5.7%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.5%
LAB Majority	562	1.1%	31.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

98%

CON

LIB

Reform

Green

OTH

Wellingborough

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Peter Bone (CON)
County/Area:	Northamptonshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	80,765
Turnout:	64.3%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	32,277	62.2%	32.2%
LAB	13,737	26.5%	41.5%
LIB	4,078	7.9%	6.2%
Green	1,821	3.5%	5.1%
Reform	0	0.0%	14.5%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.5%
CON Majority	18,540	35.7%	9.2% Pred Maj

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Result shown is the original general election result, before Peter Bone was removed by a recall petition in October 2023. Gen Kitchen (Labour) won the seat in a by-election on 15 February 2024.

Chance of winning

CON

27%

LAB

72%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Wells

Prediction: LIB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	James Heappey (CON)
County/Area:	Somerset (South West)
Electorate:	84,124
Turnout:	73.3%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	33,336	54.1%	30.0%
LIB	23,345	37.9%	35.4%
LAB	4,304	7.0%	17.7%
OTH	643	1.0%	0.2%
Reform	0	0.0%	12.6%
Green	0	0.0%	4.1%
CON Majority	9,991	16.2%	5.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

33%

LIB

62%

LAB

OTH

Reform

Green

Welwyn Hatfield

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Grant Shapps (CON)
County/Area:	Hertfordshire (Anglia)
Electorate:	74,892
Turnout:	69.5%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	27,394	52.6%	28.4%
LAB	16,439	31.6%	43.3%
LIB	6,602	12.7%	9.9%
Green	1,618	3.1%	6.0%
Reform	0	0.0%	12.0%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.4%
CON Majority	10,955	21.0%	15.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

16%

LAB

83%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Wentworth and Dearne

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	John Healey (LAB)
County/Area:	South Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	74,536
Turnout:	55.8%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,742	40.3%	56.2%
CON	14,577	35.1%	16.2%
Reform	7,019	16.9%	18.7%
LIB	1,705	4.1%	3.6%
OTH	1,514	3.6%	0.9%
Green	0	0.0%	4.5%
LAB Majority	2,165	5.2%	37.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

99%

CON

Reform

LIB

OTH

Green

West Bromwich East

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Nicola Richards (CON)
County/Area:	Black Country (West Midlands)
Electorate:	62,046
Turnout:	58.0%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	16,804	46.7%	22.5%
LAB	15,211	42.3%	57.7%
Reform	1,475	4.1%	12.3%
LIB	1,313	3.6%	3.2%
Green	627	1.7%	3.7%
OTH	545	1.5%	0.5%
CON Majority	1,593	4.4%	35.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

LAB

99%

Reform

LIB

Green

OTH

West Bromwich West

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Shaun Bailey (CON)
County/Area:	Black Country (West Midlands)
Electorate:	64,517
Turnout:	53.4%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	17,419	50.5%	23.1%
LAB	13,620	39.5%	56.2%
Reform	1,841	5.3%	13.0%
LIB	915	2.7%	3.1%
Green	664	1.9%	4.1%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.5%
CON Majority	3,799	11.0%	33.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

LAB

98%

Reform

LIB

Green

OTH

West Ham

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Lyn Brown (LAB)
County/Area:	Newham (London)
Electorate:	97,947
Turnout:	61.5%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	42,181	70.1%	76.4%
CON	9,793	16.3%	5.5%
LIB	4,161	6.9%	2.6%
Green	1,780	3.0%	5.8%
Reform	1,679	2.8%	9.4%
OTH	606	1.0%	0.5%
LAB Majority	32,388	53.8%	67.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Westminster North

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Karen Buck (LAB)
County/Area:	City of Westminster (London)
Electorate:	65,519
Turnout:	65.5%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	23,240	54.2%	61.3%
CON	12,481	29.1%	14.8%
LIB	5,593	13.0%	5.1%
Green	1,064	2.5%	7.4%
Reform	418	1.0%	10.9%
OTH	115	0.3%	0.4%
LAB Majority	10,759	25.1%	46.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Westmorland and Lonsdale

Prediction: LIB hold

MP at 2019:	Tim Farron (LIB)
County/Area:	Cumbria (North West)
Electorate:	67,789
Turnout:	77.8%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	25,795	48.9%	44.7%
CON	23,861	45.3%	23.2%
LAB	2,293	4.4%	14.4%
Reform	763	1.4%	13.9%
Green	0	0.0%	3.7%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.2%
LIB Majority	1,934	3.7%	21.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LIB

93%

CON

LAB

Reform

Green

OTH

Weston-Super-Mare

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	John Penrose (CON)
County/Area:	Bristol area (South West)
Electorate:	82,526
Turnout:	67.4%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	31,983	57.5%	30.7%
LAB	14,862	26.7%	37.4%
LIB	6,935	12.5%	12.4%
Green	1,834	3.3%	5.9%
Reform	0	0.0%	13.2%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.4%
CON Majority	17,121	30.8%	6.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

32%

LAB

67%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Wigan

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Lisa Nandy (LAB)
County/Area:	Western Manchester (North West)
Electorate:	75,680
Turnout:	59.5%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	21,042	46.7%	59.0%
CON	14,314	31.8%	15.7%
Reform	5,959	13.2%	15.6%
LIB	2,428	5.4%	3.5%
Green	1,299	2.9%	5.6%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.7%
LAB Majority	6,728	14.9%	43.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

99%

CON

Reform

LIB

Green

OTH

Wiltshire North

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	James Gray (CON)
County/Area:	Wiltshire (South West)
Electorate:	73,280
Turnout:	74.7%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	32,373	59.1%	32.0%
LIB	14,747	26.9%	27.5%
LAB	5,699	10.4%	22.9%
Green	1,939	3.5%	5.1%
Reform	0	0.0%	12.3%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.2%
CON Majority	17,626	32.2%	4.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

54%

LIB

30%

LAB

15%

Green

Reform

OTH

Wiltshire South West

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Andrew Murrison (CON)
County/Area:	Wiltshire (South West)
Electorate:	77,969
Turnout:	70.4%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	33,038	60.2%	33.0%
LAB	11,408	20.8%	32.2%
LIB	8,015	14.6%	15.6%
Green	2,434	4.4%	5.6%
Reform	0	0.0%	13.3%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.4%
CON Majority	21,630	39.4%	0.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

52%

LAB

46%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Wimbledon

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Stephen Hammond (CON)
County/Area:	Merton (London)
Electorate:	68,240
Turnout:	77.7%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	20,373	38.4%	21.5%
LIB	19,745	37.2%	25.5%
LAB	12,543	23.7%	35.6%
OTH	366	0.7%	0.4%
Reform	0	0.0%	11.5%
Green	0	0.0%	5.5%
CON Majority	628	1.2%	10.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

10%

LIB

18%

LAB

72%

OTH

Reform

Green

Winchester

Prediction: LIB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Steve Brine (CON)
County/Area:	Hampshire (South East)
Electorate:	75,582
Turnout:	77.9%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	28,430	48.3%	27.3%
LIB	27,445	46.6%	40.5%
LAB	2,723	4.6%	16.5%
OTH	292	0.5%	0.2%
Reform	0	0.0%	11.0%
Green	0	0.0%	4.4%
CON Majority	985	1.7%	13.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

16%

LIB

81%

LAB

OTH

Reform

Green

Windsor

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Adam Afriyie (CON)
County/Area:	Berkshire (South East)
Electorate:	75,038
Turnout:	71.6%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	31,501	58.6%	35.0%
LIB	11,422	21.3%	15.2%
LAB	8,147	15.2%	30.1%
Green	1,796	3.3%	6.1%
OTH	884	1.6%	0.5%
Reform	0	0.0%	13.0%
CON Majority	20,079	37.4%	4.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

63%

LIB

LAB

34%

Green

OTH

Reform

Wirral South

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Alison McGovern (LAB)
County/Area:	Merseyside (North West)
Electorate:	57,280
Turnout:	76.0%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	22,284	51.2%	54.4%
CON	16,179	37.2%	19.7%
LIB	2,917	6.7%	4.8%
Reform	1,219	2.8%	13.4%
Green	948	2.2%	7.2%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.6%
LAB Majority	6,105	14.0%	34.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

99%

CON

LIB

Reform

Green

OTH

Wirral West

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Margaret Greenwood (LAB)
County/Area:	Merseyside (North West)
Electorate:	55,550
Turnout:	77.3%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	20,695	48.2%	54.8%
CON	17,692	41.2%	23.0%
LIB	2,706	6.3%	4.8%
Green	965	2.2%	5.0%
Reform	860	2.0%	11.9%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.4%
LAB Majority	3,003	7.0%	31.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

98%

CON

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Witham

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Priti Patel (CON)
County/Area:	Essex (Anglia)
Electorate:	70,402
Turnout:	70.1%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	32,876	66.6%	37.0%
LAB	8,794	17.8%	30.8%
LIB	4,584	9.3%	10.7%
Green	3,090	6.3%	7.1%
Reform	0	0.0%	14.1%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.4%
CON Majority	24,082	48.8%	6.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

65%

LAB

34%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Witney

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Robert Courts (CON)
County/Area:	Oxfordshire (South East)
Electorate:	83,845
Turnout:	73.1%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	33,856	55.2%	31.3%
LIB	18,679	30.5%	23.6%
LAB	8,770	14.3%	27.7%
Reform	0	0.0%	12.1%
Green	0	0.0%	5.2%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.2%
CON Majority	15,177	24.8%	3.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

50%

LIB

16%

LAB

33%

Reform

Green

OTH

Woking

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Jonathan Lord (CON)
County/Area:	Surrey (South East)
Electorate:	75,454
Turnout:	71.5%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	26,396	48.9%	27.6%
LIB	16,629	30.8%	24.6%
LAB	8,827	16.4%	29.4%
Green	1,485	2.8%	5.8%
OTH	600	1.1%	0.4%
Reform	0	0.0%	12.3%
CON Majority	9,767	18.1%	1.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

35%

LIB

21%

LAB

43%

Green

OTH

Reform

Wokingham

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	John Redwood (CON)
County/Area:	Berkshire (South East)
Electorate:	83,953
Turnout:	73.8%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	30,734	49.6%	29.7%
LIB	23,351	37.7%	26.9%
LAB	6,450	10.4%	26.8%
Green	1,382	2.2%	5.3%
OTH	80	0.1%	0.3%
Reform	0	0.0%	11.1%
CON Majority	7,383	11.9%	2.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

41%

LIB

29%

LAB

29%

Green

OTH

Reform

Wolverhampton North East

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Jane Stevenson (CON)
County/Area:	Black Country (West Midlands)
Electorate:	61,660
Turnout:	55.6%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	17,722	51.7%	24.2%
LAB	13,642	39.8%	54.7%
Reform	1,354	3.9%	12.7%
LIB	960	2.8%	3.7%
Green	603	1.8%	4.2%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.5%
CON Majority	4,080	11.9%	30.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

LAB

98%

Reform

LIB

Green

OTH

Wolverhampton South East

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Pat McFadden (LAB)
County/Area:	Black Country (West Midlands)
Electorate:	62,883
Turnout:	53.2%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	15,522	46.4%	60.7%
CON	14,287	42.7%	19.6%
Reform	2,094	6.3%	12.2%
LIB	1,019	3.0%	3.0%
Green	521	1.6%	4.0%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.5%
LAB Majority	1,235	3.7%	41.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

99%

CON

Reform

LIB

Green

OTH

Wolverhampton South West

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Stuart Anderson (CON)
County/Area:	Black Country (West Midlands)
Electorate:	60,534
Turnout:	68.0%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	19,864	48.3%	27.9%
LAB	18,203	44.3%	53.8%
LIB	2,041	5.0%	3.9%
Reform	1,028	2.5%	10.6%
Green	0	0.0%	3.4%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.4%
CON Majority	1,661	4.0%	25.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

LAB

94%

LIB

Reform

Green

OTH

Worcester

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Robin Walker (CON)
County/Area:	Hereford and Worcestershire (West Midlands)
Electorate:	73,485
Turnout:	69.3%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	25,856	50.8%	25.5%
LAB	19,098	37.5%	45.1%
LIB	3,666	7.2%	6.2%
Green	1,694	3.3%	8.4%
OTH	584	1.1%	0.6%
Reform	0	0.0%	14.1%
CON Majority	6,758	13.3%	19.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

10%

LAB

89%

LIB

Green

OTH

Reform

Worcestershire Mid

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Nigel Huddleston (CON)
County/Area:	Hereford and Worcestershire (West Midlands)
Electorate:	78,220
Turnout:	71.8%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	37,426	66.7%	39.5%
LAB	9,408	16.8%	27.8%
LIB	6,474	11.5%	12.0%
Green	2,177	3.9%	6.2%
OTH	638	1.1%	0.3%
Reform	0	0.0%	14.2%
CON Majority	28,018	49.9%	11.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

77%

LAB

22%

LIB

Green

OTH

Reform

Worcestershire West

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Harriett Baldwin (CON)
County/Area:	Hereford and Worcestershire (West Midlands)
Electorate:	76,241
Turnout:	75.5%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	34,909	60.7%	32.7%
LIB	10,410	18.1%	17.7%
LAB	9,496	16.5%	26.1%
Green	2,715	4.7%	7.5%
Reform	0	0.0%	15.5%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.4%
CON Majority	24,499	42.6%	6.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

61%

LIB

LAB

30%

Green

Reform

OTH

Workington

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Mark Jenkinson (CON)
County/Area:	Cumbria (North West)
Electorate:	61,370
Turnout:	67.8%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	20,488	49.3%	22.5%
LAB	16,312	39.2%	51.1%
Reform	1,749	4.2%	16.1%
LIB	1,525	3.7%	4.9%
OTH	929	2.2%	0.4%
Green	596	1.4%	5.0%
CON Majority	4,176	10.0%	28.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

LAB

96%

Reform

LIB

OTH

Green

Worsley and Eccles South

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Barbara Keeley (LAB)
County/Area:	Central Manchester (North West)
Electorate:	75,219
Turnout:	59.4%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	20,446	45.7%	58.1%
CON	17,227	38.5%	18.0%
Reform	3,224	7.2%	14.0%
LIB	2,510	5.6%	3.4%
Green	1,300	2.9%	5.8%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.7%
LAB Majority	3,219	7.2%	40.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

99%

CON

Reform

LIB

Green

OTH

Worthing East and Shoreham

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Tim Loughton (CON)
County/Area:	West Sussex (South East)
Electorate:	75,194
Turnout:	70.7%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	27,107	51.0%	29.2%
LAB	19,633	37.0%	44.8%
LIB	4,127	7.8%	6.8%
Green	2,006	3.8%	6.5%
OTH	255	0.5%	0.4%
Reform	0	0.0%	12.3%
CON Majority	7,474	14.1%	15.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

15%

LAB

84%

LIB

Green

OTH

Reform

Worthing West

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Peter Bottomley (CON)
County/Area:	West Sussex (South East)
Electorate:	78,585
Turnout:	69.5%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	30,475	55.8%	34.0%
LAB	15,652	28.6%	38.2%
LIB	6,024	11.0%	8.8%
Green	2,008	3.7%	6.1%
OTH	489	0.9%	0.4%
Reform	0	0.0%	12.6%
CON Majority	14,823	27.1%	4.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

38%

LAB

62%

LIB

Green

OTH

Reform

Wrekin, The

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Mark Pritchard (CON)
County/Area:	Shropshire (West Midlands)
Electorate:	70,693
Turnout:	69.2%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	31,029	63.5%	33.9%
LAB	12,303	25.2%	39.5%
LIB	4,067	8.3%	7.4%
Green	1,491	3.0%	5.2%
Reform	0	0.0%	13.6%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.4%
CON Majority	18,726	38.3%	5.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

35%

LAB

64%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Wycombe

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Steve Baker (CON)
County/Area:	Buckinghamshire (South East)
Electorate:	78,098
Turnout:	70.1%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	24,766	45.2%	26.4%
LAB	20,552	37.5%	47.1%
LIB	6,543	11.9%	8.6%
Green	1,454	2.7%	5.2%
OTH	1,441	2.6%	0.5%
Reform	0	0.0%	12.2%
CON Majority	4,214	7.7%	20.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

LAB

90%

LIB

Green

OTH

Reform

Wyre and Preston North

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Ben Wallace (CON)
County/Area:	Lancashire (North West)
Electorate:	74,775
Turnout:	70.8%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	31,589	59.7%	33.2%
LAB	14,808	28.0%	39.7%
LIB	4,463	8.4%	5.7%
Green	1,729	3.3%	6.1%
OTH	335	0.6%	0.5%
Reform	0	0.0%	14.9%
CON Majority	16,781	31.7%	6.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

32%

LAB

67%

LIB

Green

OTH

Reform

Wyre Forest

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Mark Garnier (CON)
County/Area:	Hereford and Worcestershire (West Midlands)
Electorate:	78,077
Turnout:	64.8%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	32,960	65.2%	35.4%
LAB	11,547	22.8%	36.4%
LIB	4,081	8.1%	7.9%
Green	1,973	3.9%	5.2%
Reform	0	0.0%	14.6%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.5%
CON Majority	21,413	42.4%	1.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

45%

LAB

54%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Wythenshawe and Sale East

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Mike Kane (LAB)
County/Area:	Central Manchester (North West)
Electorate:	76,313
Turnout:	58.7%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	23,855	53.3%	61.5%
CON	13,459	30.1%	13.4%
LIB	3,111	7.0%	3.5%
Reform	2,717	6.1%	13.6%
Green	1,559	3.5%	7.4%
OTH	58	0.1%	0.6%
LAB Majority	10,396	23.2%	47.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

LIB

Reform

Green

OTH

Yeovil

Prediction: LIB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Marcus Fysh (CON)
County/Area:	Somerset (South West)
Electorate:	82,468
Turnout:	71.9%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	34,588	58.4%	30.1%
LIB	18,407	31.1%	34.4%
LAB	3,761	6.3%	18.0%
Green	1,629	2.7%	4.2%
OTH	875	1.5%	0.2%
Reform	0	0.0%	13.1%
CON Majority	16,181	27.3%	4.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

35%

LIB

61%

LAB

Green

OTH

Reform

York Central

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Rachael Maskell (LAB)
County/Area:	North Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	74,899
Turnout:	66.1%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	27,312	55.2%	65.0%
CON	13,767	27.8%	11.9%
LIB	4,149	8.4%	3.9%
Green	2,107	4.3%	7.5%
Reform	1,479	3.0%	11.2%
OTH	691	1.4%	0.5%
LAB Majority	13,545	27.4%	53.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

York Outer

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Julian Sturdy (CON)
County/Area:	North Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	74,673
Turnout:	74.1%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	27,324	49.4%	23.3%
LAB	17,339	31.3%	40.2%
LIB	9,992	18.1%	16.4%
OTH	692	1.3%	0.4%
Reform	0	0.0%	14.4%
Green	0	0.0%	5.2%
CON Majority	9,985	18.0%	16.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

12%

LAB

86%

LIB

OTH

Reform

Green

Yorkshire East

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Greg Knight (CON)
County/Area:	Humber area (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	80,923
Turnout:	65.2%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	33,988	64.4%	31.3%
LAB	11,201	21.2%	36.1%
LIB	4,219	8.0%	8.0%
OTH	1,686	3.2%	0.7%
Green	1,675	3.2%	5.3%
Reform	0	0.0%	18.7%
CON Majority	22,787	43.2%	4.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

35%

LAB

62%

LIB

OTH

Green

Reform