Constituency List: England T-Z

Tamworth

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Sarah Edwards (LAB)
County/Area:	Staffordshire (West Midlands)
Electorate:	75,059
Turnout:	58.3%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	15,338	35.0%	17.7%
CON	13,956	31.9%	20.6%
Reform	11,004	25.1%	44.8%
Green	1,579	3.6%	8.3%
LIB	1,451	3.3%	6.6%
OTH	290	0.7%	0.6%
MIN	170	0.4%	1.3%
LAB Majority	1,382	3.2%	24.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

CON

Reform

91%

Green

LIB

OTH

MIN

Tatton

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:	Esther McVey (CON)
County/Area:	Cheshire (North West)
Electorate:	75,978
Turnout:	68.3%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	19,956	38.4%	30.9%
LAB	18,820	36.3%	24.5%
Reform	5,948	11.5%	24.1%
LIB	4,614	8.9%	10.7%
Green	2,571	5.0%	8.7%
MIN	0	0.0%	0.8%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.2%
CON Majority	1,136	2.2%	6.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

58%

LAB

23%

Reform

18%

LIB

Green

MIN

OTH

Taunton and Wellington

Prediction: LIB hold

MP at 2024:	Gideon Amos (LIB)
County/Area:	Somerset (South West)
Electorate:	78,116
Turnout:	64.4%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	24,331	48.4%	39.4%
CON	12,392	24.6%	15.4%
Reform	8,053	16.0%	29.3%
LAB	3,552	7.1%	6.9%
Green	1,832	3.6%	7.1%
OTH	134	0.3%	0.7%
MIN	0	0.0%	1.3%
LIB Majority	11,939	23.7%	10.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LIB

75%

CON

Reform

18%

LAB

Green

OTH

MIN

Telford

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Shaun Davies (LAB)
County/Area:	Shropshire (West Midlands)
Electorate:	73,808
Turnout:	55.2%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	18,212	44.7%	32.3%
Reform	10,110	24.8%	47.7%
CON	8,728	21.4%	8.2%
Green	2,120	5.2%	6.4%
LIB	1,560	3.8%	2.7%
MIN	0	0.0%	2.3%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.5%
LAB Majority	8,102	19.9%	15.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

16%

Reform

83%

CON

Green

LIB

MIN

OTH

Tewkesbury

Prediction: LIB hold

MP at 2024:	Cameron Thomas (LIB)
County/Area:	Gloucestershire (South West)
Electorate:	73,458
Turnout:	66.1%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	20,730	42.7%	30.6%
CON	14,468	29.8%	25.7%
Reform	6,000	12.4%	22.8%
LAB	4,298	8.9%	9.0%
Green	2,873	5.9%	10.4%
OTH	170	0.4%	0.7%
MIN	0	0.0%	0.7%
LIB Majority	6,262	12.9%	4.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LIB

59%

CON

24%

Reform

17%

LAB

Green

OTH

MIN

Thanet East

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Polly Billington (LAB)
County/Area:	Kent (South East)
Electorate:	74,940
Turnout:	57.0%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	17,054	39.9%	22.8%
CON	10,083	23.6%	15.5%
Reform	8,591	20.1%	38.7%
Green	4,590	10.7%	13.5%
LIB	1,365	3.2%	6.6%
OTH	1,030	2.4%	0.7%
MIN	0	0.0%	2.1%
LAB Majority	6,971	16.3%	15.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

15%

CON

Reform

80%

Green

LIB

OTH

MIN

Thirsk and Malton

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:	Kevin Hollinrake (CON)
County/Area:	North Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	78,484
Turnout:	63.4%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	19,544	39.2%	43.5%
LAB	11,994	24.1%	9.0%
Reform	8,963	18.0%	36.5%
LIB	5,379	10.8%	5.0%
Green	2,986	6.0%	4.6%
OTH	931	1.9%	0.3%
MIN	0	0.0%	1.1%
CON Majority	7,550	15.2%	6.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

61%

LAB

Reform

37%

LIB

Green

OTH

MIN

Thornbury and Yate

Prediction: LIB hold

MP at 2024:	Claire Young (LIB)
County/Area:	Bristol area (South West)
Electorate:	78,195
Turnout:	68.2%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	20,815	39.0%	29.7%
CON	17,801	33.4%	22.8%
Reform	7,529	14.1%	26.8%
LAB	5,057	9.5%	10.8%
Green	2,165	4.1%	8.0%
MIN	0	0.0%	1.1%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.8%
LIB Majority	3,014	5.6%	2.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LIB

54%

CON

17%

Reform

28%

LAB

Green

MIN

OTH

Thurrock

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Jennifer Craft (LAB)
County/Area:	Essex (Anglia)
Electorate:	73,405
Turnout:	51.2%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,050	42.7%	24.6%
Reform	9,576	25.5%	44.5%
CON	8,009	21.3%	12.8%
Green	1,632	4.3%	9.6%
LIB	1,157	3.1%	5.7%
MIN	691	1.8%	2.0%
OTH	443	1.2%	0.8%
LAB Majority	6,474	17.2%	20.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

Reform

89%

CON

Green

LIB

MIN

OTH

Tipton and Wednesbury

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Antonia Bance (LAB)
County/Area:	Black Country (West Midlands)
Electorate:	74,100
Turnout:	43.0%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	11,755	36.9%	17.4%
CON	8,370	26.3%	16.1%
Reform	8,019	25.2%	47.1%
OTH	1,605	5.0%	1.2%
Green	1,509	4.7%	10.3%
LIB	592	1.9%	5.3%
MIN	0	0.0%	2.6%
LAB Majority	3,385	10.6%	29.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

CON

Reform

96%

OTH

Green

LIB

MIN

Tiverton and Minehead

Prediction: Reform gain from LIB

MP at 2024:	Rachel Gilmour (LIB)
County/Area:	Somerset (South West)
Electorate:	71,843
Turnout:	66.1%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	18,326	38.6%	27.4%
CON	14,819	31.2%	22.3%
Reform	7,787	16.4%	32.1%
LAB	4,325	9.1%	9.0%
Green	2,234	4.7%	7.4%
MIN	0	0.0%	1.1%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.7%
LIB Majority	3,507	7.4%	4.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LIB

39%

CON

12%

Reform

49%

LAB

Green

MIN

OTH

Tonbridge

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:	Tom Tugendhat (CON)
County/Area:	Kent (South East)
Electorate:	72,799
Turnout:	69.1%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	20,517	40.8%	45.9%
LAB	9,351	18.6%	7.7%
Green	7,596	15.1%	8.4%
Reform	7,548	15.0%	31.3%
LIB	4,234	8.4%	5.1%
OTH	1,082	2.1%	0.6%
MIN	0	0.0%	1.0%
CON Majority	11,166	22.2%	14.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

78%

LAB

Green

Reform

21%

LIB

OTH

MIN

Tooting

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Rosena Allin-Khan (LAB)
County/Area:	Wandsworth (London)
Electorate:	76,082
Turnout:	69.6%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	29,209	55.2%	30.5%
CON	9,722	18.4%	13.3%
Green	5,672	10.7%	28.9%
LIB	4,438	8.4%	10.6%
Reform	2,546	4.8%	14.5%
MIN	807	1.5%	1.4%
OTH	549	1.0%	0.7%
LAB Majority	19,487	36.8%	1.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

51%

CON

Green

43%

LIB

Reform

MIN

OTH

Torbay

Prediction: LIB hold

MP at 2024:	Steve Darling (LIB)
County/Area:	Devon (South West)
Electorate:	76,179
Turnout:	60.5%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	18,937	41.1%	31.8%
CON	13,588	29.5%	21.6%
Reform	8,660	18.8%	30.8%
LAB	3,276	7.1%	6.6%
Green	1,420	3.1%	7.0%
MIN	234	0.5%	1.9%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.3%
LIB Majority	5,349	11.6%	1.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LIB

48%

CON

15%

Reform

37%

LAB

Green

MIN

OTH

Torridge and Tavistock

Prediction: Reform gain from CON

MP at 2024:	Geoffrey Cox (CON)
County/Area:	Devon (South West)
Electorate:	74,727
Turnout:	68.0%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	16,049	31.6%	30.6%
LIB	12,099	23.8%	13.3%
LAB	10,765	21.2%	11.0%
Reform	9,152	18.0%	36.3%
Green	2,350	4.6%	7.2%
OTH	405	0.8%	0.6%
MIN	0	0.0%	1.0%
CON Majority	3,950	7.8%	5.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

32%

LIB

LAB

Reform

62%

Green

OTH

MIN

Tottenham

Prediction: Green gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	David Lammy (LAB)
County/Area:	Haringey (London)
Electorate:	75,906
Turnout:	52.9%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	23,066	57.5%	28.0%
Green	7,632	19.0%	36.8%
OTH	2,941	7.3%	1.7%
CON	2,320	5.8%	6.2%
LIB	1,928	4.8%	7.6%
Reform	1,602	4.0%	17.3%
MIN	659	1.6%	2.5%
LAB Majority	15,434	38.4%	8.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

23%

Green

74%

OTH

CON

LIB

Reform

MIN

Truro and Falmouth

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Jayne Kirkham (LAB)
County/Area:	Cornwall (South West)
Electorate:	73,082
Turnout:	68.8%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	20,783	41.3%	24.6%
CON	12,632	25.1%	19.9%
LIB	6,552	13.0%	13.3%
Reform	6,163	12.3%	25.0%
Green	3,470	6.9%	15.2%
OTH	664	1.3%	0.6%
MIN	0	0.0%	1.4%
LAB Majority	8,151	16.2%	0.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

39%

CON

16%

LIB

Reform

37%

Green

OTH

MIN

Tunbridge Wells

Prediction: LIB hold

MP at 2024:	Mike Martin (LIB)
County/Area:	Kent (South East)
Electorate:	78,738
Turnout:	68.9%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	23,661	43.6%	32.0%
CON	14,974	27.6%	23.0%
Reform	6,484	12.0%	21.2%
LAB	6,178	11.4%	12.0%
Green	2,344	4.3%	10.5%
OTH	609	1.1%	0.7%
MIN	0	0.0%	0.6%
LIB Majority	8,687	16.0%	8.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LIB

71%

CON

16%

Reform

12%

LAB

Green

OTH

MIN

Twickenham

Prediction: LIB hold

MP at 2024:	Munira Wilson (LIB)
County/Area:	Richmond upon Thames (London)
Electorate:	74,980
Turnout:	71.5%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	30,185	56.3%	41.9%
CON	8,728	16.3%	13.6%
LAB	6,693	12.5%	12.5%
Reform	4,092	7.6%	13.9%
Green	3,590	6.7%	15.4%
MIN	347	0.6%	2.3%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.3%
LIB Majority	21,457	40.0%	26.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LIB

95%

CON

LAB

Reform

Green

MIN

OTH

Tynemouth

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Alan Campbell (LAB)
County/Area:	Newcastle area (North East)
Electorate:	73,469
Turnout:	65.9%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	24,491	50.6%	44.9%
CON	9,036	18.7%	5.4%
Reform	7,392	15.3%	39.6%
Green	3,592	7.4%	4.8%
LIB	2,709	5.6%	2.2%
OTH	1,198	2.5%	0.7%
MIN	0	0.0%	2.3%
LAB Majority	15,455	31.9%	5.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

51%

CON

Reform

45%

Green

LIB

OTH

MIN

Uxbridge and South Ruislip

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Danny Boy Beales (LAB)
County/Area:	Hillingdon (London)
Electorate:	74,746
Turnout:	61.4%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,599	36.2%	20.9%
CON	16,012	34.9%	24.9%
Reform	6,610	14.4%	27.5%
Green	4,354	9.5%	14.0%
LIB	1,752	3.8%	10.8%
OTH	587	1.3%	0.5%
MIN	0	0.0%	1.4%
LAB Majority	587	1.3%	2.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

18%

CON

38%

Reform

40%

Green

LIB

OTH

MIN

Vauxhall and Camberwell Green

Prediction: Green gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Florence Eshalomi (LAB)
County/Area:	Lambeth (London)
Electorate:	69,658
Turnout:	53.9%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	21,528	57.4%	28.2%
Green	6,416	17.1%	38.0%
LIB	4,549	12.1%	9.4%
CON	2,809	7.5%	7.4%
Reform	2,033	5.4%	14.7%
OTH	201	0.5%	0.5%
MIN	0	0.0%	1.7%
LAB Majority	15,112	40.3%	9.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

22%

Green

77%

LIB

CON

Reform

OTH

MIN

Wakefield and Rothwell

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Simon Lightwood (LAB)
County/Area:	West Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	75,067
Turnout:	54.2%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	17,773	43.7%	32.6%
Reform	8,427	20.7%	46.6%
CON	7,322	18.0%	7.5%
LIB	3,249	8.0%	3.7%
Green	2,389	5.9%	6.5%
OTH	791	1.9%	0.8%
MIN	705	1.7%	2.3%
LAB Majority	9,346	23.0%	14.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

16%

Reform

83%

CON

LIB

Green

OTH

MIN

Wallasey

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Angela Eagle (LAB)
County/Area:	Merseyside (North West)
Electorate:	74,082
Turnout:	57.7%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	24,674	57.7%	44.8%
Reform	6,678	15.6%	40.6%
CON	4,987	11.7%	3.7%
Green	3,905	9.1%	5.2%
LIB	1,843	4.3%	1.8%
MIN	462	1.1%	3.2%
OTH	197	0.5%	0.6%
LAB Majority	17,996	42.1%	4.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

47%

Reform

51%

CON

Green

LIB

MIN

OTH

Walsall and Bloxwich

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Valerie Vaz (LAB)
County/Area:	Black Country (West Midlands)
Electorate:	75,968
Turnout:	49.0%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	12,514	33.6%	11.0%
MIN	7,600	20.4%	11.3%
Reform	7,293	19.6%	40.5%
CON	6,679	18.0%	17.7%
Green	2,288	6.2%	12.9%
LIB	817	2.2%	6.6%
LAB Majority	4,914	13.2%	22.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

MIN

Reform

90%

CON

Green

LIB

Walthamstow

Prediction: Green gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Stella Creasy (LAB)
County/Area:	Waltham Forest (London)
Electorate:	76,338
Turnout:	60.1%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	27,172	59.3%	31.0%
Green	9,176	20.0%	36.4%
CON	2,353	5.1%	5.7%
OTH	2,051	4.5%	1.7%
Reform	1,836	4.0%	15.7%
LIB	1,736	3.8%	7.1%
MIN	1,535	3.3%	2.4%
LAB Majority	17,996	39.2%	5.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

32%

Green

66%

CON

OTH

Reform

LIB

MIN

Warrington North

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Charlotte Nichols (LAB)
County/Area:	Cheshire (North West)
Electorate:	70,601
Turnout:	56.7%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	18,730	46.8%	37.0%
Reform	9,540	23.8%	50.2%
CON	6,486	16.2%	4.7%
LIB	2,737	6.8%	1.7%
Green	1,889	4.7%	3.8%
OTH	659	1.6%	0.6%
MIN	0	0.0%	2.1%
LAB Majority	9,190	23.0%	13.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

16%

Reform

83%

CON

LIB

Green

OTH

MIN

Warrington South

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Sarah Edith Hall (LAB)
County/Area:	Cheshire (North West)
Electorate:	78,399
Turnout:	63.4%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	23,201	46.7%	44.9%
CON	11,861	23.9%	6.3%
Reform	7,913	15.9%	40.1%
LIB	3,829	7.7%	2.5%
Green	2,313	4.7%	3.2%
OTH	555	1.1%	0.5%
MIN	0	0.0%	2.5%
LAB Majority	11,340	22.8%	4.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

58%

CON

Reform

39%

LIB

Green

OTH

MIN

Warwick and Leamington

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Matt Western (LAB)
County/Area:	Warwickshire (West Midlands)
Electorate:	76,294
Turnout:	64.5%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	23,975	48.7%	27.3%
CON	11,563	23.5%	18.7%
Reform	5,154	10.5%	22.4%
Green	4,471	9.1%	17.9%
LIB	3,881	7.9%	11.1%
OTH	154	0.3%	0.7%
MIN	0	0.0%	2.0%
LAB Majority	12,412	25.2%	4.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

56%

CON

13%

Reform

21%

Green

LIB

OTH

MIN

Warwickshire North and Bedworth

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Rachel Margaret Taylor (LAB)
County/Area:	Warwickshire (West Midlands)
Electorate:	69,752
Turnout:	58.7%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	14,727	36.0%	17.0%
CON	12,529	30.6%	19.9%
Reform	10,701	26.1%	45.4%
Green	1,755	4.3%	8.2%
LIB	1,228	3.0%	7.6%
MIN	0	0.0%	1.5%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.5%
LAB Majority	2,198	5.4%	25.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

CON

Reform

92%

Green

LIB

MIN

OTH

Washington and Gateshead South

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Sharon Hodgson (LAB)
County/Area:	Newcastle area (North East)
Electorate:	70,972
Turnout:	52.2%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	17,682	47.8%	30.5%
Reform	10,769	29.1%	51.2%
CON	4,654	12.6%	6.4%
Green	1,687	4.6%	6.3%
LIB	1,602	4.3%	2.7%
OTH	627	1.7%	0.6%
MIN	0	0.0%	2.3%
LAB Majority	6,913	18.7%	20.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

Reform

91%

CON

Green

LIB

OTH

MIN

Watford

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Matt Turmaine (LAB)
County/Area:	Hertfordshire (Anglia)
Electorate:	73,000
Turnout:	60.9%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	15,708	35.3%	30.6%
CON	10,985	24.7%	14.3%
LIB	7,577	17.0%	13.0%
Reform	4,930	11.1%	27.7%
MIN	2,659	6.0%	5.1%
Green	2,428	5.5%	8.6%
OTH	168	0.4%	0.8%
LAB Majority	4,723	10.6%	3.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

42%

CON

13%

LIB

Reform

34%

MIN

Green

OTH

Waveney Valley

Prediction: Green hold

MP at 2024:	Adrian Ramsay (Green)
County/Area:	Suffolk (Anglia)
Electorate:	73,056
Turnout:	67.2%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
Green	20,467	41.7%	28.8%
CON	14,873	30.3%	27.8%
Reform	7,779	15.9%	27.2%
LAB	4,621	9.4%	7.0%
LIB	1,214	2.5%	7.2%
OTH	118	0.2%	0.5%
MIN	0	0.0%	1.5%
Green Majority	5,594	11.4%	1.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

Green

37%

CON

35%

Reform

28%

LAB

LIB

OTH

MIN

Weald of Kent

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:	Katie Jane Lotte Lam (CON)
County/Area:	Kent (South East)
Electorate:	75,988
Turnout:	66.7%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	20,202	39.8%	43.8%
LAB	11,780	23.2%	8.2%
Reform	10,208	20.1%	35.6%
Green	4,547	9.0%	6.1%
LIB	3,975	7.8%	5.2%
MIN	0	0.0%	0.8%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.3%
CON Majority	8,422	16.6%	8.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

66%

LAB

Reform

33%

Green

LIB

MIN

OTH

Wellingborough and Rushden

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Gen Kitchen (LAB)
County/Area:	Northamptonshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	77,559
Turnout:	56.7%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	17,734	40.3%	19.8%
CON	12,248	27.8%	24.2%
Reform	9,456	21.5%	33.9%
Green	2,704	6.1%	15.1%
LIB	1,570	3.6%	5.5%
OTH	273	0.6%	0.3%
MIN	0	0.0%	1.2%
LAB Majority	5,486	12.5%	9.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

CON

28%

Reform

63%

Green

LIB

OTH

MIN

Wells and Mendip Hills

Prediction: LIB hold

MP at 2024:	Tessa Munt (LIB)
County/Area:	Somerset (South West)
Electorate:	72,051
Turnout:	69.9%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	23,622	46.9%	34.4%
CON	12,501	24.8%	20.3%
Reform	6,611	13.1%	23.9%
LAB	3,527	7.0%	10.2%
Green	2,068	4.1%	8.7%
OTH	2,039	4.0%	1.3%
MIN	0	0.0%	1.3%
LIB Majority	11,121	22.1%	10.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LIB

75%

CON

Reform

15%

LAB

Green

OTH

MIN

Welwyn Hatfield

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Andrew Lewin (LAB)
County/Area:	Hertfordshire (Anglia)
Electorate:	75,259
Turnout:	64.4%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	19,877	41.0%	25.0%
CON	16,078	33.2%	21.5%
Reform	6,397	13.2%	30.5%
LIB	3,117	6.4%	9.1%
Green	2,986	6.2%	12.1%
MIN	0	0.0%	1.3%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.5%
LAB Majority	3,799	7.8%	5.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

32%

CON

15%

Reform

52%

LIB

Green

MIN

OTH

West Bromwich

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Sarah Coombes (LAB)
County/Area:	Black Country (West Midlands)
Electorate:	74,026
Turnout:	49.3%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,872	46.2%	35.1%
CON	7,318	20.1%	6.9%
Reform	7,101	19.5%	44.6%
Green	2,036	5.6%	5.9%
OTH	1,840	5.0%	1.4%
LIB	1,314	3.6%	2.8%
MIN	0	0.0%	3.3%
LAB Majority	9,554	26.2%	9.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

21%

CON

Reform

75%

Green

OTH

LIB

MIN

West Ham and Beckton

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	James Edward Asser (LAB)
County/Area:	Newham (London)
Electorate:	78,790
Turnout:	46.1%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,434	45.2%	21.6%
MIN	7,180	19.8%	9.1%
Green	3,897	10.7%	25.2%
CON	3,781	10.4%	9.7%
Reform	2,800	7.7%	25.9%
LIB	1,606	4.4%	7.1%
OTH	650	1.8%	1.3%
LAB Majority	9,254	25.5%	0.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

22%

MIN

Green

37%

CON

Reform

39%

LIB

OTH

Westmorland and Lonsdale

Prediction: LIB hold

MP at 2024:	Tim Farron (LIB)
County/Area:	Cumbria (North West)
Electorate:	72,029
Turnout:	68.8%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	31,061	62.7%	43.0%
CON	9,589	19.4%	15.6%
Reform	4,842	9.8%	23.5%
LAB	2,306	4.7%	8.1%
Green	1,486	3.0%	7.9%
OTH	249	0.5%	0.7%
MIN	0	0.0%	1.2%
LIB Majority	21,472	43.3%	19.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LIB

93%

CON

Reform

LAB

Green

OTH

MIN

Weston-super-Mare

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Dan Aldridge (LAB)
County/Area:	Bristol area (South West)
Electorate:	71,396
Turnout:	59.4%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,310	38.5%	20.6%
CON	11,901	28.1%	21.8%
Reform	7,735	18.2%	31.7%
LIB	3,756	8.9%	11.2%
Green	2,688	6.3%	13.2%
MIN	0	0.0%	1.1%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.5%
LAB Majority	4,409	10.4%	9.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

14%

CON

21%

Reform

62%

LIB

Green

MIN

OTH

Wetherby and Easingwold

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:	Alec Shelbrooke (CON)
County/Area:	North Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	74,334
Turnout:	70.3%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	20,597	39.4%	37.6%
LAB	15,751	30.1%	15.6%
Reform	7,288	13.9%	27.5%
Green	4,529	8.7%	8.0%
LIB	3,351	6.4%	9.6%
OTH	743	1.4%	0.3%
MIN	0	0.0%	1.3%
CON Majority	4,846	9.3%	10.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

70%

LAB

Reform

21%

Green

LIB

OTH

MIN

Whitehaven and Workington

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Josh MacAlister (LAB)
County/Area:	Cumbria (North West)
Electorate:	73,198
Turnout:	57.2%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	22,173	53.0%	38.9%
Reform	8,887	21.2%	48.5%
CON	8,455	20.2%	5.4%
Green	1,207	2.9%	2.7%
LIB	1,118	2.7%	1.4%
MIN	0	0.0%	2.7%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.4%
LAB Majority	13,286	31.8%	9.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

27%

Reform

73%

CON

Green

LIB

MIN

OTH

Widnes and Halewood

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Derek Twigg (LAB)
County/Area:	Cheshire (North West)
Electorate:	71,233
Turnout:	53.5%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	23,484	61.6%	43.0%
Reform	7,059	18.5%	44.8%
CON	3,507	9.2%	3.2%
Green	2,058	5.4%	4.3%
LIB	1,593	4.2%	1.4%
MIN	415	1.1%	2.6%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.6%
LAB Majority	16,425	43.1%	1.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

42%

Reform

58%

CON

Green

LIB

MIN

OTH

Wigan

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Lisa Nandy (LAB)
County/Area:	Western Manchester (North West)
Electorate:	77,537
Turnout:	52.7%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	19,401	47.4%	35.8%
Reform	9,852	24.1%	51.5%
CON	4,310	10.5%	3.7%
OTH	4,015	9.8%	1.4%
LIB	1,692	4.1%	1.7%
Green	1,629	4.0%	3.4%
MIN	0	0.0%	2.5%
LAB Majority	9,549	23.3%	15.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

13%

Reform

87%

CON

OTH

LIB

Green

MIN

Wiltshire East

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:	Danny Kruger (CON)
County/Area:	Wiltshire (South West)
Electorate:	73,878
Turnout:	63.9%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	16,849	35.7%	42.9%
LAB	12,133	25.7%	9.7%
LIB	8,204	17.4%	7.8%
Reform	7,885	16.7%	32.7%
Green	1,844	3.9%	5.7%
OTH	278	0.6%	0.3%
MIN	0	0.0%	0.9%
CON Majority	4,716	10.0%	10.2% Pred Maj

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Result shown is the original general election result. Danny Kruger has since moved to Reform UK.

Chance of winning

CON

50%

LAB

LIB

Reform

41%

Green

OTH

MIN

Wiltshire South West

Prediction: Reform gain from CON

MP at 2024:	Andrew Murrison (CON)
County/Area:	Wiltshire (South West)
Electorate:	72,809
Turnout:	63.4%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	15,617	33.8%	32.8%
LAB	12,374	26.8%	12.2%
Reform	7,840	17.0%	35.9%
LIB	7,205	15.6%	9.7%
Green	2,243	4.9%	7.3%
OTH	889	1.9%	0.9%
MIN	0	0.0%	1.2%
CON Majority	3,243	7.0%	3.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

33%

LAB

Reform

62%

LIB

Green

OTH

MIN

Wimbledon

Prediction: LIB hold

MP at 2024:	Paul Christopher Kohler (LIB)
County/Area:	Merton (London)
Electorate:	76,352
Turnout:	72.0%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	24,790	45.1%	37.2%
CON	12,180	22.2%	16.8%
LAB	11,733	21.3%	19.1%
Reform	3,221	5.9%	12.8%
Green	2,442	4.4%	12.2%
MIN	341	0.6%	1.2%
OTH	278	0.5%	0.7%
LIB Majority	12,610	22.9%	18.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LIB

86%

CON

LAB

Reform

Green

MIN

OTH

Winchester

Prediction: LIB hold

MP at 2024:	Danny Chambers (LIB)
County/Area:	Hampshire (South East)
Electorate:	78,289
Turnout:	72.9%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	29,939	52.5%	50.0%
CON	16,118	28.2%	26.9%
Reform	4,797	8.4%	11.0%
LAB	3,023	5.3%	4.5%
Green	2,740	4.8%	6.4%
OTH	459	0.8%	0.7%
MIN	0	0.0%	0.5%
LIB Majority	13,821	24.2%	23.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LIB

93%

CON

Reform

LAB

Green

OTH

MIN

Windsor

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:	Jack Rankin (CON)
County/Area:	Berkshire (South East)
Electorate:	73,334
Turnout:	61.7%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	16,483	36.4%	37.8%
LAB	10,026	22.2%	13.4%
LIB	9,539	21.1%	11.9%
Reform	4,660	10.3%	26.6%
Green	2,288	5.1%	8.7%
OTH	1,629	3.6%	0.8%
MIN	621	1.4%	0.7%
CON Majority	6,457	14.3%	11.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

65%

LAB

LIB

Reform

24%

Green

OTH

MIN

Wirral West

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Matthew Patrick (LAB)
County/Area:	Merseyside (North West)
Electorate:	72,838
Turnout:	68.6%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	23,156	46.4%	27.3%
CON	13,158	26.3%	19.8%
Reform	6,422	12.9%	24.5%
Green	4,160	8.3%	11.6%
LIB	3,055	6.1%	13.8%
MIN	0	0.0%	2.7%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.3%
LAB Majority	9,998	20.0%	2.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

55%

CON

11%

Reform

30%

Green

LIB

MIN

OTH

Witham

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:	Priti Patel (CON)
County/Area:	Essex (Anglia)
Electorate:	79,072
Turnout:	64.0%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	18,827	37.2%	42.1%
LAB	13,682	27.0%	9.2%
Reform	9,870	19.5%	36.7%
Green	3,539	7.0%	6.0%
LIB	3,439	6.8%	4.6%
OTH	1,246	2.5%	0.5%
MIN	0	0.0%	0.9%
CON Majority	5,145	10.2%	5.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

55%

LAB

Reform

43%

Green

LIB

OTH

MIN

Witney

Prediction: LIB hold

MP at 2024:	Charlie Maynard (LIB)
County/Area:	Oxfordshire (South East)
Electorate:	75,448
Turnout:	67.0%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	20,832	41.2%	29.6%
CON	16,493	32.6%	23.1%
Reform	6,307	12.5%	26.5%
LAB	4,773	9.4%	10.0%
Green	1,661	3.3%	8.9%
OTH	518	1.0%	0.9%
MIN	0	0.0%	1.1%
LIB Majority	4,339	8.6%	3.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LIB

53%

CON

18%

Reform

28%

LAB

Green

OTH

MIN

Woking

Prediction: LIB hold

MP at 2024:	Will Forster (LIB)
County/Area:	Surrey (South East)
Electorate:	72,977
Turnout:	66.0%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	24,019	49.9%	35.5%
CON	12,773	26.5%	22.5%
Reform	4,888	10.2%	18.7%
LAB	4,444	9.2%	11.2%
Green	1,853	3.8%	10.7%
OTH	168	0.3%	0.7%
MIN	0	0.0%	0.6%
LIB Majority	11,246	23.4%	13.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LIB

83%

CON

11%

Reform

LAB

Green

OTH

MIN

Wokingham

Prediction: LIB hold

MP at 2024:	Clive Jones (LIB)
County/Area:	Berkshire (South East)
Electorate:	75,082
Turnout:	71.9%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	25,743	47.7%	36.6%
CON	17,398	32.2%	23.0%
Reform	5,274	9.8%	20.3%
LAB	3,631	6.7%	9.9%
Green	1,953	3.6%	8.6%
MIN	0	0.0%	0.9%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.7%
LIB Majority	8,345	15.5%	13.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LIB

83%

CON

10%

Reform

LAB

Green

MIN

OTH

Wolverhampton North East

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Sureena Brackenridge (LAB)
County/Area:	Black Country (West Midlands)
Electorate:	70,715
Turnout:	47.1%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	14,282	42.9%	18.7%
CON	8,860	26.6%	19.6%
Reform	7,721	23.2%	40.5%
Green	1,424	4.3%	11.8%
LIB	1,002	3.0%	7.3%
MIN	0	0.0%	1.5%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.6%
LAB Majority	5,422	16.3%	20.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

CON

Reform

87%

Green

LIB

MIN

OTH

Wolverhampton South East

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Pat McFadden (LAB)
County/Area:	Black Country (West Midlands)
Electorate:	77,473
Turnout:	43.1%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,800	50.3%	18.1%
Reform	7,612	22.8%	46.5%
CON	5,654	16.9%	12.6%
Green	1,643	4.9%	14.8%
MIN	915	2.7%	2.7%
LIB	758	2.3%	4.6%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.8%
LAB Majority	9,188	27.5%	28.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

Reform

96%

CON

Green

MIN

LIB

OTH

Wolverhampton West

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Warinder Juss (LAB)
County/Area:	Black Country (West Midlands)
Electorate:	77,851
Turnout:	56.1%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	19,331	44.3%	22.8%
CON	11,463	26.3%	20.2%
Reform	6,078	13.9%	30.1%
Green	2,550	5.8%	13.7%
OTH	2,283	5.2%	1.5%
LIB	1,376	3.2%	8.9%
MIN	576	1.3%	2.9%
LAB Majority	7,868	18.0%	7.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

25%

CON

14%

Reform

57%

Green

OTH

LIB

MIN

Worcester

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Tom Collins (LAB)
County/Area:	Hereford and Worcestershire (West Midlands)
Electorate:	74,931
Turnout:	61.4%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	18,622	40.5%	21.8%
CON	11,506	25.0%	18.7%
Reform	6,723	14.6%	29.8%
Green	4,789	10.4%	16.4%
LIB	3,986	8.7%	10.0%
OTH	410	0.9%	0.8%
MIN	0	0.0%	2.4%
LAB Majority	7,116	15.5%	7.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

24%

CON

13%

Reform

57%

Green

LIB

OTH

MIN

Worcestershire West

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:	Harriett Baldwin (CON)
County/Area:	Hereford and Worcestershire (West Midlands)
Electorate:	79,242
Turnout:	69.0%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	19,783	36.2%	46.3%
LIB	13,236	24.2%	8.2%
LAB	8,335	15.2%	6.9%
Reform	7,902	14.4%	30.6%
Green	5,068	9.3%	6.8%
OTH	363	0.7%	0.4%
MIN	0	0.0%	0.8%
CON Majority	6,547	12.0%	15.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

75%

LIB

LAB

Reform

22%

Green

OTH

MIN

Worsley and Eccles

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Michael Wheeler (LAB)
County/Area:	Central Manchester (North West)
Electorate:	78,643
Turnout:	54.1%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	20,277	47.7%	30.6%
Reform	9,186	21.6%	43.5%
CON	6,791	16.0%	8.6%
Green	3,283	7.7%	9.9%
LIB	1,851	4.4%	4.3%
OTH	689	1.6%	0.7%
MIN	466	1.1%	2.5%
LAB Majority	11,091	26.1%	12.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

19%

Reform

79%

CON

Green

LIB

OTH

MIN

Worthing East and Shoreham

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Tom Rutland (LAB)
County/Area:	West Sussex (South East)
Electorate:	74,738
Turnout:	65.7%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	22,120	45.1%	35.6%
CON	12,601	25.7%	12.0%
Reform	7,169	14.6%	36.1%
Green	3,246	6.6%	8.6%
LIB	3,180	6.5%	5.5%
OTH	762	1.6%	0.6%
MIN	0	0.0%	1.6%
LAB Majority	9,519	19.4%	0.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

42%

CON

Reform

50%

Green

LIB

OTH

MIN

Worthing West

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Beccy Cooper (LAB)
County/Area:	West Sussex (South East)
Electorate:	77,038
Turnout:	66.2%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	20,519	40.2%	22.5%
CON	16,570	32.5%	21.7%
Reform	7,562	14.8%	32.3%
Green	3,274	6.4%	11.7%
LIB	2,708	5.3%	9.8%
OTH	364	0.7%	0.6%
MIN	0	0.0%	1.5%
LAB Majority	3,949	7.7%	9.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

18%

CON

17%

Reform

64%

Green

LIB

OTH

MIN

Wrekin, The

Prediction: Reform gain from CON

MP at 2024:	Mark Pritchard (CON)
County/Area:	Shropshire (West Midlands)
Electorate:	78,942
Turnout:	63.4%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	16,320	32.6%	22.5%
LAB	15,437	30.9%	17.5%
Reform	9,920	19.8%	37.7%
LIB	4,757	9.5%	10.1%
Green	3,028	6.1%	10.0%
OTH	558	1.1%	0.7%
MIN	0	0.0%	1.5%
CON Majority	883	1.8%	15.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

20%

LAB

Reform

76%

LIB

Green

OTH

MIN

Wycombe

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Emma Reynolds (LAB)
County/Area:	Buckinghamshire (South East)
Electorate:	73,846
Turnout:	60.4%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,035	35.9%	20.2%
CON	11,444	25.6%	21.5%
Reform	4,769	10.7%	24.1%
LIB	4,236	9.5%	15.8%
MIN	3,344	7.5%	3.4%
OTH	2,616	5.9%	1.7%
Green	2,193	4.9%	13.4%
LAB Majority	4,591	10.3%	2.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

20%

CON

29%

Reform

39%

LIB

MIN

OTH

Green

Wyre Forest

Prediction: Reform gain from CON

MP at 2024:	Mark Garnier (CON)
County/Area:	Hereford and Worcestershire (West Midlands)
Electorate:	77,394
Turnout:	58.3%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	14,489	32.1%	30.1%
LAB	13,677	30.3%	11.0%
Reform	9,682	21.4%	42.6%
LIB	2,809	6.2%	7.4%
Green	2,443	5.4%	6.6%
OTH	2,058	4.6%	1.1%
MIN	0	0.0%	1.4%
CON Majority	812	1.8%	12.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

19%

LAB

Reform

79%

LIB

Green

OTH

MIN

Wythenshawe and Sale East

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Mike Kane (LAB)
County/Area:	Central Manchester (North West)
Electorate:	77,765
Turnout:	50.3%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	20,596	52.6%	24.8%
Reform	5,986	15.3%	33.3%
CON	5,392	13.8%	11.5%
Green	4,133	10.6%	20.0%
LIB	1,985	5.1%	6.8%
MIN	714	1.8%	2.8%
OTH	326	0.8%	0.8%
LAB Majority	14,610	37.3%	8.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

32%

Reform

60%

CON

Green

LIB

MIN

OTH

Yeovil

Prediction: LIB hold

MP at 2024:	Adam Dance (LIB)
County/Area:	Somerset (South West)
Electorate:	79,700
Turnout:	61.4%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	23,765	48.5%	51.1%
CON	11,497	23.5%	6.6%
Reform	7,677	15.7%	35.0%
LAB	3,002	6.1%	2.3%
Green	2,403	4.9%	2.7%
OTH	608	1.2%	0.9%
MIN	0	0.0%	1.4%
LIB Majority	12,268	25.1%	16.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LIB

79%

CON

Reform

17%

LAB

Green

OTH

MIN

York Central

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Rachael Maskell (LAB)
County/Area:	North Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	79,557
Turnout:	54.5%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	24,537	56.6%	29.2%
CON	5,383	12.4%	9.3%
Green	5,185	12.0%	26.9%
Reform	4,721	10.9%	25.1%
LIB	3,051	7.0%	6.6%
OTH	446	1.0%	0.5%
MIN	0	0.0%	2.4%
LAB Majority	19,154	44.2%	2.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

46%

CON

Green

31%

Reform

22%

LIB

OTH

MIN

York Outer

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Luke Charters (LAB)
County/Area:	North Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	76,228
Turnout:	67.0%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	23,161	45.3%	30.8%
CON	13,770	26.9%	21.8%
Reform	5,912	11.6%	22.1%
LIB	5,496	10.8%	14.4%
Green	2,212	4.3%	9.2%
OTH	555	1.1%	0.6%
MIN	0	0.0%	1.1%
LAB Majority	9,391	18.4%	8.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

64%

CON

16%

Reform

17%

LIB

Green

OTH

MIN