Constituency List: Wales

Aberavon Cardiff South and Penarth Gower Pontypridd
Aberconwy Cardiff West Islwyn Preseli Pembrokeshire
Alyn and Deeside Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Llanelli Rhondda
Arfon Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Merthyr Tydfil And Rhymney Swansea East
Blaenau Gwent Ceredigion Monmouth Swansea West
Brecon and Radnorshire Clwyd South Montgomeryshire Torfaen
Bridgend Clwyd West Neath Vale of Clwyd
Caerphilly Cynon Valley Newport East Vale of Glamorgan
Cardiff Central Delyn Newport West Wrexham
Cardiff North Dwyfor Meirionnydd Ogmore Ynys Mon

Aberavon
County/Area: West Glamorgan (Wales)
MP Hywel Francis  (LAB)
Electorate50,789 Turnout60.95%Top
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted VotesChance of winning
LAB 16,07351.92%60.72%
 99.2%
LIB 5,03416.26% 6.93%
  0.0%
CON 4,41114.25%18.01%
  0.8%
NAT 2,198 7.10% 7.10%
  0.0%
OTH 1,966 6.35% 3.12%
  0.0%
MIN 1,276 4.12% 4.12%
  0.0%
LAB Majority11,03935.66%  Pred Maj42.71%

Aberconwy
County/Area: Clwyd (Wales)
MP Guto Bebb  (CON)
Electorate44,593 Turnout67.20%Top
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted VotesChance of winning
CON 10,73435.82%39.53%
 64.5%
LAB 7,33624.48%33.16%
 34.3%
LIB 5,78619.31% 8.23%
  0.9%
NAT 5,34117.82%17.82%
  0.0%
OTH 769 2.57% 1.26%
  0.3%
CON Majority3,39811.34%  Pred Maj 6.37%

Alyn and Deeside
County/Area: Clwyd (Wales)
MP Mark Tami  (LAB)
Electorate60,931 Turnout65.52%Top
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted VotesChance of winning
LAB 15,80439.59%47.84%
 75.9%
CON 12,88532.27%35.80%
 23.9%
LIB 7,30818.31% 7.80%
  0.1%
NAT 1,549 3.88% 3.88%
  0.0%
MIN 1,368 3.43% 3.43%
  0.0%
OTH 1,009 2.53% 1.24%
  0.1%
LAB Majority2,919 7.31%  Pred Maj12.04%

Arfon
County/Area: Gwynedd (Wales)
MP Hywel Williams  (NAT)
Electorate41,198 Turnout63.30%Top
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted VotesChance of winning
NAT 9,38335.98%35.98%
 46.8%
LAB 7,92830.40%36.99%
 51.0%
CON 4,41616.93%19.75%
  2.2%
LIB 3,66614.06% 5.99%
  0.0%
OTH 685 2.63% 1.29%
  0.0%
NAT Majority1,455 5.58%  Pred Maj 1.01%LAB Gain

Blaenau Gwent
County/Area: Mid Glamorgan and Gwent (Wales)
MP Nick Smith  (LAB)
Electorate52,438 Turnout61.78%Top
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted VotesChance of winning
LAB 16,97452.40%58.76%
 100.0%
MIN 6,45819.94%19.94%
  0.0%
LIB 3,28510.14% 4.32%
  0.0%
CON 2,265 6.99% 9.71%
  0.0%
OTH 2,080 6.42% 3.16%
  0.0%
NAT 1,333 4.11% 4.11%
  0.0%
LAB Majority10,51632.46%  Pred Maj38.83%

Brecon and Radnorshire
County/Area: Powys (Wales)
MP Roger Williams  (LIB)
Electorate53,589 Turnout72.49%Top
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted VotesChance of winning
LIB 17,92946.16%34.68%
 33.9%
CON 14,18236.51%40.25%
 56.6%
LAB 4,09610.54%19.29%
  9.3%
NAT 989 2.55% 2.55%
  0.0%
MIN 876 2.26% 2.26%
  0.0%
OTH 773 1.99% 0.98%
  0.2%
LIB Majority3,747 9.65%  Pred Maj 5.57%CON Gain

Bridgend
County/Area: Mid Glamorgan and Gwent (Wales)
MP Madeleine Moon  (LAB)
Electorate58,700 Turnout65.33%Top
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted VotesChance of winning
LAB 13,93136.33%45.11%
 72.1%
CON 11,66830.43%34.18%
 27.2%
LIB 8,65822.58%11.10%
  0.5%
NAT 2,269 5.92% 5.92%
  0.0%
MIN 1,020 2.66% 2.66%
  0.0%
OTH 801 2.09% 1.03%
  0.2%
LAB Majority2,263 5.90%  Pred Maj10.93%

Caerphilly
County/Area: Mid Glamorgan and Gwent (Wales)
MP Wayne David  (LAB)
Electorate62,134 Turnout62.75%Top
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted VotesChance of winning
LAB 17,37744.57%51.57%
 97.5%
CON 6,62216.98%19.98%
  2.5%
NAT 6,46016.57%16.57%
  0.0%
LIB 5,98815.36% 6.55%
  0.0%
MIN 1,635 4.19% 4.19%
  0.0%
OTH 910 2.33% 1.15%
  0.0%
LAB Majority10,75527.58%  Pred Maj31.59%

Cardiff Central
County/Area: South Glamorgan (Wales)
MP Jenny Willott  (LIB)
Electorate61,162 Turnout59.11%Top
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted VotesChance of winning
LIB 14,97641.43%29.95%
 24.4%
LAB 10,40028.77%37.76%
 55.8%
CON 7,79921.57%25.41%
 19.3%
NAT 1,246 3.45% 3.45%
  0.0%
OTH 965 2.67% 1.31%
  0.5%
MIN 765 2.12% 2.12%
  0.0%
LIB Majority4,57612.66%  Pred Maj 7.81%LAB Gain

Cardiff North
County/Area: South Glamorgan (Wales)
MP Jonathan Evans  (CON)
Electorate65,553 Turnout72.66%Top
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted VotesChance of winning
CON 17,86037.50%40.85%
 41.0%
LAB 17,66637.09%44.95%
 58.8%
LIB 8,72418.32% 7.81%
  0.1%
NAT 1,588 3.33% 3.33%
  0.0%
MIN 1,130 2.37% 2.37%
  0.0%
OTH 662 1.39% 0.68%
  0.1%
CON Majority194 0.41%  Pred Maj 4.09%LAB Gain

Cardiff South and Penarth
County/Area: South Glamorgan (Wales)
MP Alun Michael  (LAB)
Electorate73,704 Turnout60.20%Top
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted VotesChance of winning
LAB 17,26338.91%48.30%
 79.7%
CON 12,55328.29%32.30%
 19.8%
LIB 9,87522.26%10.78%
  0.3%
NAT 1,851 4.17% 4.17%
  0.0%
OTH 1,683 3.79% 1.86%
  0.2%
MIN 1,145 2.58% 2.58%
  0.0%
LAB Majority4,71010.62%  Pred Maj15.99%

Cardiff West
County/Area: South Glamorgan (Wales)
MP Kevin Brennan  (LAB)
Electorate62,787 Turnout65.23%Top
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted VotesChance of winning
LAB 16,89341.25%48.95%
 84.5%
CON 12,14329.65%32.94%
 15.4%
LIB 7,18617.55% 7.48%
  0.1%
NAT 2,868 7.00% 7.00%
  0.0%
MIN 1,117 2.73% 2.73%
  0.0%
OTH 750 1.83% 0.90%
  0.0%
LAB Majority4,75011.60%  Pred Maj16.01%

Carmarthen East and Dinefwr
County/Area: Dyfed (Wales)
MP Jonathan Edwards  (NAT)
Electorate52,385 Turnout72.56%Top
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted VotesChance of winning
NAT 13,54635.64%35.64%
 71.8%
LAB 10,06526.48%31.35%
 24.0%
CON 8,50622.38%24.46%
  4.2%
LIB 4,60912.13% 5.17%
  0.0%
MIN 1,285 3.38% 3.38%
  0.0%
NAT Majority3,481 9.16%  Pred Maj 4.28%

Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South
County/Area: Dyfed (Wales)
MP Simon Hart  (CON)
Electorate57,519 Turnout70.42%Top
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted VotesChance of winning
CON 16,64941.10%43.31%
 66.4%
LAB 13,22632.65%37.82%
 33.5%
LIB 4,89012.07% 5.15%
  0.0%
NAT 4,23210.45%10.45%
  0.0%
MIN 1,146 2.83% 2.83%
  0.0%
OTH 364 0.90% 0.44%
  0.1%
CON Majority3,423 8.45%  Pred Maj 5.49%

Ceredigion
County/Area: Dyfed (Wales)
MP Mark Williams  (LIB)
Electorate59,043 Turnout64.80%Top
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted VotesChance of winning
LIB 19,13950.03%38.55%
 83.5%
NAT 10,81528.27%28.27%
  4.0%
CON 4,42111.56%15.27%
  6.4%
LAB 2,210 5.78%14.46%
  5.8%
MIN 977 2.55% 2.55%
  0.0%
OTH 696 1.82% 0.89%
  0.3%
LIB Majority8,32421.76%  Pred Maj10.28%

Clwyd South
County/Area: Clwyd (Wales)
MP Susan Elan Jones  (LAB)
Electorate53,748 Turnout64.53%Top
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted VotesChance of winning
LAB 13,31138.38%46.14%
 78.5%
CON 10,47730.21%33.52%
 21.3%
LIB 5,96517.20% 7.33%
  0.1%
NAT 3,009 8.68% 8.68%
  0.0%
MIN 1,100 3.17% 3.17%
  0.0%
OTH 819 2.36% 1.16%
  0.1%
LAB Majority2,834 8.17%  Pred Maj12.61%

Clwyd West
County/Area: Clwyd (Wales)
MP David Jones  (CON)
Electorate57,913 Turnout65.81%Top
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted VotesChance of winning
CON 15,83341.54%44.29%
 80.4%
LAB 9,41424.70%31.13%
 19.4%
NAT 5,86415.39%15.39%
  0.0%
LIB 5,80115.22% 6.49%
  0.1%
MIN 864 2.27% 2.27%
  0.0%
OTH 335 0.88% 0.43%
  0.1%
CON Majority6,41916.84%  Pred Maj13.16%

Cynon Valley
County/Area: Mid Glamorgan and Gwent (Wales)
MP Ann Clwyd  (LAB)
Electorate50,656 Turnout58.98%Top
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted VotesChance of winning
LAB 15,68152.49%58.03%
 100.0%
NAT 6,06420.30%20.30%
  0.0%
LIB 4,12013.79% 5.88%
  0.0%
CON 3,01010.07%12.44%
  0.0%
MIN 1,001 3.35% 3.35%
  0.0%
LAB Majority9,61732.19%  Pred Maj37.73%

Delyn
County/Area: Clwyd (Wales)
MP David Hanson  (LAB)
Electorate53,470 Turnout69.17%Top
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted VotesChance of winning
LAB 15,08340.78%47.66%
 75.8%
CON 12,81134.64%37.58%
 24.2%
LIB 5,74715.54% 6.62%
  0.0%
NAT 1,844 4.99% 4.99%
  0.0%
MIN 844 2.28% 2.28%
  0.0%
OTH 655 1.77% 0.87%
  0.0%
LAB Majority2,272 6.14%  Pred Maj10.08%

Dwyfor Meirionnydd
County/Area: Gwynedd (Wales)
MP Elfyn Llwyd  (NAT)
Electorate45,354 Turnout63.73%Top
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted VotesChance of winning
NAT 12,81444.33%44.33%
 99.7%
CON 6,44722.30%24.81%
  0.1%
LAB 4,02113.91%19.79%
  0.2%
LIB 3,53812.24% 5.22%
  0.0%
MIN 1,310 4.53% 4.53%
  0.0%
OTH 776 2.68% 1.32%
  0.0%
NAT Majority6,36722.03%  Pred Maj19.52%

Gower
County/Area: West Glamorgan (Wales)
MP Martin Caton  (LAB)
Electorate61,696 Turnout67.54%Top
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted VotesChance of winning
LAB 16,01638.43%46.66%
 74.3%
CON 13,33332.00%35.51%
 25.4%
LIB 7,94719.07% 8.13%
  0.2%
NAT 2,760 6.62% 6.62%
  0.0%
MIN 963 2.31% 2.31%
  0.0%
OTH 652 1.56% 0.77%
  0.1%
LAB Majority2,683 6.44%  Pred Maj11.15%

Islwyn
County/Area: Mid Glamorgan and Gwent (Wales)
MP Christopher Evans  (LAB)
Electorate54,826 Turnout63.27%Top
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted VotesChance of winning
LAB 17,06949.20%56.61%
 99.0%
CON 4,85413.99%17.16%
  1.0%
NAT 4,51813.02%13.02%
  0.0%
LIB 3,59710.37% 4.42%
  0.0%
OTH 3,157 9.10% 4.47%
  0.0%
MIN 1,495 4.31% 4.31%
  0.0%
LAB Majority12,21535.21%  Pred Maj39.46%

Llanelli
County/Area: Dyfed (Wales)
MP Nia Griffith  (LAB)
Electorate55,637 Turnout67.33%Top
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted VotesChance of winning
LAB 15,91642.49%46.67%
 98.8%
NAT 11,21529.94%29.94%
  0.3%
CON 5,38114.36%16.15%
  0.9%
LIB 3,90210.42% 4.44%
  0.0%
MIN 1,047 2.79% 2.79%
  0.0%
LAB Majority4,70112.55%  Pred Maj16.74%

Merthyr Tydfil And Rhymney
County/Area: Mid Glamorgan and Gwent (Wales)
MP Dai Havard  (LAB)
Electorate54,715 Turnout58.62%Top
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted VotesChance of winning
LAB 14,00743.67%54.20%
 96.4%
LIB 9,95131.02%19.55%
  1.6%
CON 2,412 7.52%12.02%
  1.9%
OTH 2,240 6.98% 3.43%
  0.1%
MIN 1,845 5.75% 5.75%
  0.0%
NAT 1,621 5.05% 5.05%
  0.0%
LAB Majority4,05612.64%  Pred Maj34.65%

Monmouth
County/Area: Mid Glamorgan and Gwent (Wales)
MP David Davies  (CON)
Electorate62,768 Turnout74.11%Top
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted VotesChance of winning
CON 22,46648.29%51.82%
 83.4%
LAB 12,04125.88%34.13%
 16.4%
LIB 9,02619.40% 8.27%
  0.2%
NAT 1,273 2.74% 2.74%
  0.0%
MIN 1,126 2.42% 2.42%
  0.0%
OTH 587 1.26% 0.62%
  0.0%
CON Majority10,42522.41%  Pred Maj17.69%

Montgomeryshire
County/Area: Powys (Wales)
MP Glyn Davies  (CON)
Electorate48,730 Turnout69.39%Top
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted VotesChance of winning
CON 13,97641.33%45.09%
 83.5%
LIB 12,79237.83%26.36%
 10.3%
NAT 2,802 8.29% 8.29%
  0.0%
LAB 2,407 7.12%15.90%
  6.0%
MIN 1,128 3.34% 3.34%
  0.0%
OTH 708 2.09% 1.03%
  0.2%
CON Majority1,184 3.50%  Pred Maj18.73%

Neath
County/Area: West Glamorgan (Wales)
MP Peter Hain  (LAB)
Electorate57,186 Turnout64.91%Top
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted VotesChance of winning
LAB 17,17246.26%53.05%
 99.2%
NAT 7,39719.93%19.93%
  0.0%
LIB 5,53514.91% 6.36%
  0.0%
CON 4,84713.06%15.96%
  0.8%
MIN 1,342 3.62% 3.62%
  0.0%
OTH 829 2.23% 1.10%
  0.0%
LAB Majority9,77526.33%  Pred Maj33.12%

Newport East
County/Area: Mid Glamorgan and Gwent (Wales)
MP Jessica Morden  (LAB)
Electorate54,437 Turnout63.28%Top
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted VotesChance of winning
LAB 12,74436.99%45.86%
 82.0%
LIB 11,09432.21%20.73%
  4.4%
CON 7,91822.99%26.77%
 13.4%
MIN 1,168 3.39% 3.39%
  0.0%
OTH 800 2.32% 1.14%
  0.2%
NAT 724 2.10% 2.10%
  0.0%
LAB Majority1,650 4.79%  Pred Maj19.09%

Newport West
County/Area: Mid Glamorgan and Gwent (Wales)
MP Paul Flynn  (LAB)
Electorate62,111 Turnout63.95%Top
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted VotesChance of winning
LAB 16,38941.26%49.36%
 79.1%
CON 12,84532.34%35.80%
 20.8%
LIB 6,58716.58% 7.07%
  0.1%
OTH 1,594 4.01% 1.97%
  0.0%
MIN 1,183 2.98% 2.98%
  0.0%
NAT 1,122 2.82% 2.82%
  0.0%
LAB Majority3,544 8.92%  Pred Maj13.56%

Ogmore
County/Area: Mid Glamorgan and Gwent (Wales)
MP Huw Irranca-Davies  (LAB)
Electorate55,527 Turnout62.40%Top
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted VotesChance of winning
LAB 18,64453.81%60.71%
 99.9%
CON 5,39815.58%18.53%
  0.1%
LIB 5,26015.18% 6.47%
  0.0%
NAT 3,326 9.60% 9.60%
  0.0%
MIN 1,242 3.58% 3.58%
  0.0%
OTH 780 2.25% 1.11%
  0.0%
LAB Majority13,24638.23%  Pred Maj42.18%

Pontypridd
County/Area: Mid Glamorgan and Gwent (Wales)
MP Owen Smith  (LAB)
Electorate58,219 Turnout63.00%Top
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted VotesChance of winning
LAB 14,22638.79%47.97%
 90.4%
LIB 11,43531.18%19.70%
  2.9%
CON 5,93216.17%20.10%
  6.5%
NAT 2,673 7.29% 7.29%
  0.0%
MIN 1,229 3.35% 3.35%
  0.0%
OTH 1,182 3.22% 1.58%
  0.2%
LAB Majority2,791 7.61%  Pred Maj27.88%

Preseli Pembrokeshire
County/Area: Dyfed (Wales)
MP Stephen Crabb  (CON)
Electorate57,419 Turnout68.97%Top
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted VotesChance of winning
CON 16,94442.79%45.28%
 72.4%
LAB 12,33931.16%37.00%
 27.6%
LIB 5,75914.54% 6.20%
  0.0%
NAT 3,654 9.23% 9.23%
  0.0%
MIN 906 2.29% 2.29%
  0.0%
CON Majority4,60511.63%  Pred Maj 8.28%

Rhondda
County/Area: Mid Glamorgan and Gwent (Wales)
MP Chris Bryant  (LAB)
Electorate51,554 Turnout60.27%Top
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted VotesChance of winning
LAB 17,18355.30%59.99%
 100.0%
NAT 5,63018.12%18.12%
  0.0%
LIB 3,30910.65% 4.54%
  0.0%
MIN 2,599 8.36% 8.36%
  0.0%
CON 1,993 6.41% 8.42%
  0.0%
OTH 358 1.15% 0.57%
  0.0%
LAB Majority11,55337.18%  Pred Maj41.87%

Swansea East
County/Area: West Glamorgan (Wales)
MP Sian James  (LAB)
Electorate59,823 Turnout54.62%Top
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted VotesChance of winning
LAB 16,81951.47%60.09%
 99.2%
LIB 5,98118.30% 7.80%
  0.0%
CON 4,82314.76%18.44%
  0.8%
NAT 2,181 6.67% 6.67%
  0.0%
MIN 1,715 5.25% 5.25%
  0.0%
OTH 1,157 3.54% 1.74%
  0.0%
LAB Majority10,83833.17%  Pred Maj41.65%

Swansea West
County/Area: West Glamorgan (Wales)
MP Geraint Davies  (LAB)
Electorate61,334 Turnout58.03%Top
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted VotesChance of winning
LAB 12,33534.66%44.37%
 77.9%
LIB 11,83133.24%21.77%
  6.6%
CON 7,40720.81%24.96%
 15.1%
OTH 1,673 4.70% 2.31%
  0.4%
NAT 1,437 4.04% 4.04%
  0.0%
MIN 910 2.56% 2.56%
  0.0%
LAB Majority504 1.42%  Pred Maj19.41%

Torfaen
County/Area: Mid Glamorgan and Gwent (Wales)
MP Paul Murphy  (LAB)
Electorate61,178 Turnout61.53%Top
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted VotesChance of winning
LAB 16,84744.76%54.60%
 94.6%
CON 7,54120.03%24.24%
  5.4%
LIB 6,26416.64% 7.09%
  0.0%
OTH 3,326 8.84% 4.34%
  0.0%
NAT 2,005 5.33% 5.33%
  0.0%
MIN 1,657 4.40% 4.40%
  0.0%
LAB Majority9,30624.72%  Pred Maj30.36%

Vale of Clwyd
County/Area: Clwyd (Wales)
MP Chris Ruane  (LAB)
Electorate55,781 Turnout63.70%Top
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted VotesChance of winning
LAB 15,01742.26%47.96%
 79.9%
CON 12,50835.20%37.64%
 20.1%
LIB 4,47212.59% 5.36%
  0.0%
NAT 2,068 5.82% 5.82%
  0.0%
MIN 827 2.33% 2.33%
  0.0%
OTH 642 1.81% 0.89%
  0.0%
LAB Majority2,509 7.06%  Pred Maj10.33%

Vale of Glamorgan
County/Area: South Glamorgan (Wales)
MP Alun Cairns  (CON)
Electorate70,262 Turnout69.27%Top
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted VotesChance of winning
CON 20,34141.80%44.63%
 63.6%
LAB 16,03432.95%39.57%
 36.3%
LIB 7,40315.21% 6.48%
  0.0%
NAT 2,667 5.48% 5.48%
  0.0%
MIN 1,529 3.14% 3.14%
  0.0%
OTH 693 1.42% 0.70%
  0.1%
CON Majority4,307 8.85%  Pred Maj 5.06%

Wrexham
County/Area: Clwyd (Wales)
MP Ian Lucas  (LAB)
Electorate50,872 Turnout64.82%Top
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted VotesChance of winning
LAB 12,16136.88%45.75%
 80.7%
LIB 8,50325.79%14.31%
  1.5%
CON 8,37525.40%29.19%
 17.6%
NAT 2,029 6.15% 6.15%
  0.0%
MIN 1,134 3.44% 3.44%
  0.0%
OTH 774 2.35% 1.15%
  0.2%
LAB Majority3,65811.09%  Pred Maj16.56%

Ynys Mon
County/Area: Gwynedd (Wales)
MP Albert Owen  (LAB)
Electorate50,075 Turnout68.78%Top
2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted VotesChance of winning
LAB 11,49033.36%37.79%
 88.1%
NAT 9,02926.21%26.21%
  0.7%
CON 7,74422.48%24.38%
 11.2%
LIB 2,592 7.53% 3.21%
  0.0%
MIN 2,225 6.46% 6.46%
  0.0%
OTH 1,364 3.96% 1.95%
  0.0%
LAB Majority2,461 7.14%  Pred Maj11.58%