Antrim East: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Antrim East: Overview

Prediction: DUP

Implied MP at 2019:Sammy Wilson  (DUP)
County/Area:Antrim (Northern Ireland)
Electorate:69,793
Implied Turnout 2019:57.4%
Predicted Turnout:57.4%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
DUP18,43946.0%33.5%
Alliance10,25525.6%24.6%
UUP6,09215.2%15.4%
SF2,4796.2%11.2%
SDLP1,1032.8%6.3%
OTH1,0472.6%7.4%
Green6761.7%1.7%
DUP Majority8,18420.4%8.9%
LIB Maj

See overview of other seats in Northern Ireland.

Chance of winning
DUP
71%
Alliance
24%
UUP
3%
SF
1%
SDLP
0%
OTH
0%
Green
0%

Antrim East : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Antrim East constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party Winner 2024DUPSFLAB
Party Winner 2019DUPDUPCON
Party Winner 2017DUPDUPCON
EU Leave %56%44%52%
British Identity48%32%52%
Average Age51.249.349.5
Good Education48%48%49%
Employed56%56%58%
Homeowner76%69%63%
Car owner89%87%77%
Married50%46%45%
Ethnic White98%97%83%
Christian74%81%50%
ABC1 Class55%51%55%
Average House Price£141,197£148,402£308,942

Antrim East ranks #261 for "Leave", out of 650 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
British IdentityNational Identity (TS027)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Antrim East: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Antrim East

The new seat of Antrim East is made up of the following wards, with the predicted ward winners shown if there were a general election tomorrow. Ward winners are modelled on the 'first past the post' system, and do not necessarily reflect a majority vote in each ward. For example, a party may be projected as the 'winner' of a ward with 30% support because the other parties only got 20%-25% each.

New seat: Antrim EastActualPredicted
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
Antrim and NewtownabbeyAbbey1,567Antrim EastDUPDUP
Antrim and NewtownabbeyJordanstown2,230Antrim EastDUPDUP
Antrim and NewtownabbeyJordanstown324Antrim SouthDUPDUP
Antrim and NewtownabbeyMonkstown2,409Antrim EastDUPDUP
Antrim and NewtownabbeyRostulla2,672Antrim EastDUPAlliance
Causeway Coast and GlensLurigethan2,147Antrim EastDUPSF
Mid and East AntrimBallycarry and Glynn2,730Antrim EastDUPDUP
Mid and East AntrimBoneybefore2,370Antrim EastDUPDUP
Mid and East AntrimBurleigh Hill2,184Antrim EastDUPDUP
Mid and East AntrimCairncastle2,637Antrim EastDUPDUP
Mid and East AntrimCarnlough and Glenarm2,312Antrim EastDUPSF
Mid and East AntrimCastle2,593Antrim EastAllianceAlliance
Mid and East AntrimCraigyhill2,595Antrim EastDUPDUP
Mid and East AntrimCurran and Inver2,454Antrim EastDUPDUP
Mid and East AntrimGardenmore2,403Antrim EastDUPDUP
Mid and East AntrimGlenravel2,506Antrim NorthDUPDUP
Mid and East AntrimGlenwhirry126Antrim EastDUPDUP
Mid and East AntrimGlenwhirry2,189Antrim NorthDUPDUP
Mid and East AntrimGortalee2,462Antrim EastDUPDUP
Mid and East AntrimGreenisland2,470Antrim EastAllianceAlliance
Mid and East AntrimIslandmagee2,320Antrim EastDUPAlliance
Mid and East AntrimKilroot3,047Antrim EastDUPDUP
Mid and East AntrimKilwaughter3,134Antrim EastDUPDUP
Mid and East AntrimLove Lane2,434Antrim EastDUPAlliance
Mid and East AntrimSlemish274Antrim EastDUPDUP
Mid and East AntrimSlemish2,071Antrim NorthDUPDUP
Mid and East AntrimSunnylands2,627Antrim EastDUPDUP
Mid and East AntrimThe Maidens2,439Antrim EastDUPDUP
Mid and East AntrimVictoria2,867Antrim EastDUPDUP
Mid and East AntrimWhitehead South2,528Antrim EastAllianceAlliance
Mid and East AntrimWoodburn2,670Antrim EastDUPDUP
 Total69,791 DUPDUP

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Antrim East if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2024.


© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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