Historical Facts, Data and Analysis

This is a record of historical electoral facts and data, as well as an archive of track records of Electoral Calculus predictions.

.

Historical Facts and Data

Historical Data

Stack of old documents

A unique electoral data archive from Electoral Calculus. Data include:

Photo: © gow27 / 123RF.com

General Election History from 1900

Party support at elections 1900-2017

See the General Election History since 1900, with votes and seats for all the major parties, plus a brief commentary about each election.


There is also an interactive map timeline of every general election from 1955 to date showing which party "won" each area, along with summary political assessments.

Also available are some swingplots showing change on a regional basis: 2001 – 2005,  1997 – 2001,  1992 – 1997,  1987 – 1992,  1983 – 1987.

Track Record of Our Predictions

Track Record Summary

Overall track record of Electoral Calculus predictions from 1992 to date.
Last updated: 22 June 2017

Track Record 2017

Analysis of errors at the 2017 general election, when the polls were bad again.
Posted: 22 June 2017

Track Record 2015

Analysis of errors at the 2015 general election, when the model worked well but the polls were bad.
Posted: 16 May 2015

Election Night Blog 2015

Live blog of the 2015 general election as it happened.
Posted: 10 May 2015

Track Record 2010

Analysis of errors at the 2010 general election, where the prediction was generally good, but the Lib Dems were overstated.

There is also a comparison of models at the 2010 election, showing the Strong Transition Model is better than Uniform National Swing.
Posted: 16 May 2010

Track Record 2005

Analysis of errors at the 2005 general election, when the prediction was fair, but overestimated the Labour majority.
Posted: 6 May 2010

Track Record 2001

Analysis of errors at the 2001 general election, when the prediction was generally good, although their were counteracting errors from both the polls and the models.
Posted: 13 March 2005



Return to home page.