This is a record of historical electoral facts and data, as well as an archive of track records of Electoral Calculus predictions..
A unique electoral data archive from Electoral Calculus. Data include:
See the General Election History since 1900, with votes and seats for all the major parties, plus a brief commentary about each election.
There is also an interactive map timeline of every general election from 1955 to date showing which party "won" each area, along with summary political assessments.
Also available are some swingplots showing change on a regional basis: 2001 – 2005, 1997 – 2001, 1992 – 1997, 1987 – 1992, 1983 – 1987.
Overall track record of Electoral Calculus predictions from 1992 to date.
Last updated: 22 June 2017
Analysis of errors at the 2017 general election, when the polls
were bad again.
Posted: 22 June 2017
Analysis of errors at the 2015 general election, when the model
worked well but the polls were bad.
Posted: 16 May 2015
Live blog of the 2015 general election as it happened.
Posted: 10 May 2015
Analysis of errors at the 2010 general election, where the prediction was generally good, but the Lib Dems were overstated.
There is also a comparison of models
at the 2010 election, showing the Strong Transition Model is better than
Uniform National Swing.
Posted: 16 May 2010
Analysis of errors at the 2005 general election, when the prediction
was fair, but overestimated the Labour majority.
Posted: 6 May 2010
Analysis of errors at the 2001 general election, when the prediction
was generally good, although their were counteracting errors from both the
polls and the models.
Posted: 13 March 2005