General Election Prediction

Current Prediction: Labour short 24 of majority

Party2010 Votes2010 SeatsPred VotesPred Seats
CON36.97%30731.82%263
LAB29.66%25832.72%302
LIB23.56%57 7.72%16
UKIP 3.17%017.58%0
NAT 2.26%9 4.27%50
MIN 4.37%19 5.90%19

Prediction based on opinion polls from 10 Oct 14 to 31 Oct 14, sampling 9,823 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Conservative majority
12%
Labour majority
34%
Con/Lib coalition
5%
Lab/Lib coalition
10%
Lib choice of coalition
0%
No overall control
40%

The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election.

Can the Conservatives win?

Runups to General Elections

Each election since 1983 is represented by a two-segment line which shows the state of the major parties in the run-up to the election. The line shows where their poll support was at (a) two years before the election (start of the line), (b) one year before the election (shown by a small dot), and (c) the election result itself (marked with a labelled dot). The average opinion poll support over 2013 is marked with a grey circle.

Read the analysis and conclusions from this data to see if the Conservatives can win.