General Election Prediction

Current Prediction: Conservative short 18 of majority

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesPred Seats
CON 43.5%318 40.7%308
LAB 41.0%262 39.5%267
LIB 7.6%12 8.6%15
UKIP 1.9%0 3.7%0
Green 1.7%1 2.5%1
SNP 3.1%35 3.2%38
PlaidC 0.5%4 0.5%3
Minor 0.7%0 1.2%0
N.Ire 18 18

Prediction based on opinion polls from 10 Apr 2018 to 01 May 2018, sampling 12,285 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Conservative majority
41%
Labour majority
31%
Con/Nat coalition
6%
Lab choice of Lib/Nat
6%
Con choice of Lib/Nat
5%
Lab/Nat coalition
4%
Nat choice of Con/Lab
3%
No overall control
2%
Lab/Lib coalition
1%
Con/Lib coalition
1%

The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. ('Nat' means SNP+PlaidC)