General Election Prediction

Current Prediction: Labour short 14 of majority

Party	2010 Votes	2010 Seats	Pred Votes	Pred Seats
CON	36.97%	307	37.59%	279
LAB	29.66%	258	37.83%	312
LIB	23.56%	57	11.42%	14
NAT	2.26%	9	3.71%	27
MIN	7.54%	19	9.45%	18

Prediction based on opinion polls from 18 Jan 12 to 27 Jan 12, sampling 9,288 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Conservative majority

21%

Labour majority

40%

Con/Lib coalition

Lab/Lib coaliltion

10%

Lib choice of coalition

No overall control

24%

The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election.

UK's top General Election predictor

Electoral Calculus predicts the next British General Election result using scientific analysis of opinion polls and electoral geography.

We have been making election predictions for twenty years, and were the most accurate pre-poll predictor at the last General Election in May 2010.

These pages last updated on Sun 29 Jan 2012 11:57.

New Boundaries 2013

NEW Final notional results for England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland.

Now published are full notional results for all the United Kingdom under the new boundaries proposed by the Boundary Commissions. These show the estimated results of the 2010 general election for the new boundaries.

These results use a detailed set of local election results for Britain to make the most accurate set of notional results. This replaces the earlier simplified calculations.

Make your prediction is now available for new boundaries too.

29 January 2012

Features available

This website explains where these predictions come from, and lets you make your own predictions. There are also detailed predictions of every seat, including a list of target vulnerable seats, and a complete nationwide list of seat predictions.

Also freely available are data files containing the seat-by-seat results of all general elections since 1983.