General Election Prediction

Current Prediction: Conservative short 1 of majority

Party2015 Votes2015 SeatsPred VotesPred Seats
CON 37.8%331 36.5%325
LAB 31.2%232 30.5%236
LIB 8.1%8 6.9%8
UKIP 12.9%1 16.0%2
Green 3.8%1 4.4%1
SNP 4.9%56 4.9%56
PlaidC 0.6%3 0.6%4
Minor 0.8%0 0.3%0
N.Ire 18 18

Prediction based on opinion polls from 11 May 2016 to 19 May 2016, sampling 8,103 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Conservative majority
51%
Con/Nat coalition
26%
Con choice of Lib/Nat
7%
Nat choice of Con/Lab
7%
Lab/Nat coalition
5%
Labour majority
2%
Lab choice of Lib/Nat
2%

The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. ('Nat' means SNP+PlaidC)