Prediction based on opinion polls from 12 Apr 2015 to 25 Apr 2015, sampling 21,495 people.
Probability of possible outcomes
Nat choice of Con/Lab
Lab choice of Lib/Nat
Con choice of Lib/Nat
No overall control
The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can
estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election.
('Nat' means SNP+PlaidC)
Tectonic Voter Migrations
The graphic shows how voters have switched allegiance between the parties since 2010.
One hundred typical voters are shown, with the arrows showing their various migrations from
one party to another. "Lost" voters to a party are coloured grey, and "gained" voters carry
a white cross.
The graphic makes clear the collapse in Lib Dem support and the growth of the minor parties.
It also contains some bad news for the Conservatives.
Currently there is about a 80% chance of a hung parliament in 2015. This detailed diagram of the electoral
battleground maps out the several possible outcomes. The growth of SNP support in Scotland creates a genuine
four-party system at Westminster with a range of possible coalition permutations. Conservative support is given
by the horizontal axis, and Labour support by the vertical axis. The current support position (Con 33.6%, Lab 31.7%
at 25 April 2015) is shown by the circular blue marker inside the "Nat choice of Con/Lab" zone, where
the SNP has the balance of power.
Technical notes: Map only shows movement for the Conservative, Labour and Liberal Democrat parties. It
assumes the votes for other parties, including UKIP and the SNP, are fixed at current support levels. UKIP
are not currently to predicted to win many seats, so they are not yet a factor in coalition permutations.
Since other parties have 28% support nationally, the map is missing the top-right corner where the
Conservative plus Labour total would be more than 72%.
As the General Election approaches, Electoral Calculus has a new
Shaped Strong Transition Model which
gives much more accurate predictions for UKIP and the Greens.
detailed geographic information from the recent Euro elections to give
fine-grained predictions for where the minor parties are strongest.
4 April 2015
As the general election approaches, Electoral Calculus now
has live updates on the front page.
As polls are published each day, the front
page will automatically update to show the live poll-of-polls and the
predicted number of seats for each party.
14 March 2015
This website explains where these predictions come from, and lets
you make your own predictions. There are
also detailed predictions of every seat, including a list of target
vulnerable seats, and a complete nationwide list of seat predictions.
Also freely available are data files containing the seat-by-seat results of all
general elections since 1983.