General Election Prediction

Current Prediction: Conservative majority 100

Party2015 Votes2015 SeatsPred VotesPred Seats
CON 37.8%331 42.4%375
LAB 31.2%232 25.3%186
LIB 8.1%8 9.8%9
UKIP 12.9%1 12.5%1
Green 3.8%1 3.8%1
SNP 4.9%56 4.7%56
PlaidC 0.6%3 0.6%4
Minor 0.8%0 1.0%0
N.Ire 18 18

Prediction based on opinion polls from 08 Feb 2017 to 22 Feb 2017, sampling 8,324 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Conservative majority
74%
Con choice of Lib/Nat
7%
Con/Nat coalition
7%
Labour majority
5%
Lab/Nat coalition
3%
Nat choice of Con/Lab
2%
No overall control
2%
Lab choice of Lib/Nat
1%

The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. ('Nat' means SNP+PlaidC)

Electoral Calculus Survey Results

Public sees clear blue water between Osborne and May

2D Political Map with Osborne and May

George Osborne is strongly at odds with Theresa May according to a survey by Electoral Calculus of politically engaged members of the public. Osborne is perceived as being strongly internationalist in outlook, while the public thinks the Prime Minister is quite nationalist.

Electoral Calculus conducted a survey of the its politically astute users during January and February to discover the informed public's judgement about the political position of major public figures. Positions are given not just in terms of the classic left/right economic divide, but also in a new second dimension of internationalism vs nationalism, which is the other main defining political axis post-Brexit.

According to the survey, Osborne has a left/right score of 45° Right which puts him absolutely in the economic centre of Conservative politics. However the public give him a rating in the national dimension of 34°International, making him the most international of all leading Conservatives who were judged.

Theresa May was judged to be 39°Right on the economic axis, which is very slightly left of the Conservative centre. But the survey placed her at 14°National on the other axis, which is on the more nationalist side of the party's centre-of-gravity at 6°Nat.

Attitudes associated with the Internationalist side of the axis are openness to immigration, support for the EU single market, a multicultural Britain which treats all residents equally and a Britain engaged abroad. The Nationalist wing is hostile to immigration, dislikes EU freedom of movement, defines British as 'born here', and puts a more isolationist Britain first. These definitions are adapted from original work by the Social Market Foundation last year.

The gap between Osborne and May on the national axis is nearly 50° wide, which is a very substantial difference in political terms. The public's perceptions may also match Osborne's own, which is perhaps why he recently took the editorship of a London newspaper, since London is the centre of Internationalist feeling amongst voters.

Technical note: Electoral Calculus surveyed 556 users of the site between 3 January and 27 February. Users were self-selected but responses were re-weighted to match national averages. The margin of error is +/−3°.

Posted 18 March 2017

By-election Analysis

What Copeland and Stoke mean for Con, Lab and UKIP

Read this new Daily Telegraph article by Martin Baxter on the by-elections and why they suggest that tactical voting by UKIP may be a key factor at the next election.

Posted 24 February 2017

New political analysis

Seat-level analysis

Now available for every current seat and every proposed new seat:

Use the postcode lookup    to see your existing seat or find your proposed new seat (click the "Proposed Constituency" name).

You can also see existing seats using the "Seats" pages on the left-hand menu bar, and details of the proposed new seats at the new boundary homepage.

Example: Stoke-on-Trent Central

EU Referendum vote, Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean):

Remain 34%
66% Leave
Left / Right
4° Left
Intern'l / National
15° National

Stoke-on-Trent Central ranks #58 for "Leave", #437 for "Right" and #60 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Read the full analysis of Stoke-on-Trent Central and see if UKIP can really win this seat.

Posted 24 January 2017

New Year interactive feature

Vote on public figures' 2D positions

New for January is a feature allowing you to judge the 2D political position of public figures.

Simply drag and drop various people onto the 2D grid to vote according to how you perceive their positions both on the left/right axis and the international/national axis. Once you've voted, you will see the average vote for those people over the Electoral Calculus readership.

Public figures include current British politicians from the major parties, former Prime Ministers, and some guests from overseas.

Vote here.


Posted 5 January 2017

Political Analysis

The hidden wiring behind modern politics and where it gives UKIP a chance to beat Labour

In a major new analysis, Electoral Calculus applies its pioneering 2D Political Mapping to every ward in Britain. This gives a unique picture of political attitudes at a detailed geographical level.

Important conclusions appear from these data — UKIP could capture large numbers of Labour seats in some parts of the north and midlands, as long as they trim their political position slightly left of centre.

This article earlier appeared in the Daily Telegraph online here on 28 December.

Posted 30 December 2016

New interactive feature

Plot My Position in the new politics

Using our groundbreaking new 2D Political Maps, you can now plot your own political position as well as seeing what your local neighbourhood, at the ward level, thinks as well.

Simply complete a quick (and anonymous) political questionnaire about your attitudes and beliefs, and your position will be plotted on the 2D Political Map, along with the average position of the other voters in your local council ward, as well as the supporters of the major national parties. See how you compare with your neighbours and party supporters.

The questions take less than 5 minutes to complete: start here.

Posted 22 December 2016

Political Analysis

2D Political Maps

In a new article, Electoral Calculus creates a whole new way of measuring, analysing and viewing political attitudes. Instead of relying solely on the tired labels of "left" and "right", it adds an entire new dimensional into the political landscape to create a two-dimensional map rather than a one-dimensional spectrum.

The old dimension of left-wing and right-wing is basically an economic axis with supporters of a large state, high tax and benefits at one end; and with small government and low taxation believers at the other. The new dimension is between internationalist and nationalists. Internationalists believe in globalism, and Nationalists believe in their own country first. The views of each group are summarised here:

Internationalist attitudesNationalist attitudes
Pro-immigration
Pro EU Single Market
Multicultural Britain
Treat all residents equally
Britain engaged abroad
Against immigration
Dislike EU freedom of movement
British means 'born here'
Put Britons first
Isolationist

This analysis builds on an important report and survey by the Social Market Foundation on British politics. Using their data and the new dimension, we can get 2D Political Maps of parties and other population groups.

Electoral Calculus 2D Political Map by Voting Intention
Chart : 2D Political Map by Voting IntentionSource: Opinium survey of 2,037 adults 12–18 August 2016

This chart gives a number of valuable insights beyond simple left-right questions, and it repays a bit of attention. Here are some key points:

We can see this gives much more information than the traditional left-right analysis in isolation. In simple left-right terms it would appear that UKIP was somewhere between the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives, but this doesn't really describe their political outlook.

Read the full story to see more 2D Political Maps, understand the EU Referendum, and get a unique understanding on modern politics.

Posted 7 December 2016