General Election Prediction

Current Prediction: Conservative majority 90

Party2015 Votes2015 SeatsPred VotesPred Seats
CON 37.8%331 42.6%370
LAB 31.2%232 27.7%193
LIB 8.1%8 7.9%7
UKIP 12.9%1 11.7%1
Green 3.8%1 3.5%1
SNP 4.9%56 4.7%56
PlaidC 0.6%3 0.6%4
Minor 0.8%0 1.1%0
N.Ire 18 18

Prediction based on opinion polls from 11 Nov 2016 to 29 Nov 2016, sampling 6,651 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Conservative majority
71%
Con/Nat coalition
7%
Labour majority
6%
Con choice of Lib/Nat
6%
Nat choice of Con/Lab
4%
Lab/Nat coalition
4%
Lab choice of Lib/Nat
1%
No overall control
1%

The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. ('Nat' means SNP+PlaidC)

Political Analysis

2D Political Maps

In a new article, Electoral Calculus creates a whole new way of measuring, analysing and viewing political attitudes. Instead of relying solely on the tired labels of "left" and "right", it adds an entire new dimensional into the political landscape to create a two-dimensional map rather than a one-dimensional spectrum.

The old dimension of left-wing and right-wing is basically an economic axis with supporters of a large state, high tax and benefits at one end; and with small government and low taxation believers at the other. The new dimension is between internationalist and nationalists. Internationalists believe in globalism, and Nationalists believe in their own country first. The views of each group are summarised here:

Internationalist attitudesNationalist attitudes
Pro-immigration
Pro EU Single Market
Multicultural Britain
Treat all residents equally
Britain engaged abroad
Against immigration
Dislike EU freedom of movement
British means 'born here'
Put Britons first
Isolationist

This analysis builds on an important report and survey by the Social Market Foundation on British politics. Using their data and the new dimension, we can get 2D Political Maps of parties and other population groups.

Electoral Calculus 2D Political Map by Voting Intention
Chart : 2D Political Map by Voting IntentionSource: Opinium survey of 2,037 adults 12–18 August 2018

This chart gives a number of valuable insights beyond simple left-right questions, and it repays a bit of attention. Here are some key points:

We can see this gives much more information than the traditional left-right analysis in isolation. In simple left-right terms it would appear that UKIP was somewhere between the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives, but this doesn't really describe their political outlook.

Read the full story to see more 2D Political Maps, understand the EU Referendum, and get a unique understanding on modern politics.

Posted 7 December 2016

Polling update from Scotland

The main prediction now includes recent polls from Scotland for Westminster voting intention. These polls are fairly rare, but there have been two recently from Panelbase and BMG. These show the Scottish voting intentions fairly similar to the May 2015 general election result, but with some variation.

The SNP maintain their dominance of Scottish politics with a measured support of 48pc (down 2pc on the general election).

The Conservatives appear to have gained and are up by 7pc to 22pc, whilst Labour has declined a further 8pc down to 16pc. The Conservatives are now the second party of Scottish politics, with Labour in third place.

In terms of seats, the Conservatives gain one seat of Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk from the SNP to give them a grand total of two seats in Scotland, but Labour lose their only Scottish seat of Edinburgh South to the nationalists.

A technical feature of the model means that as the Conservatives gain support in Scotland, they must have slightly less support in England and Wales for the same fixed GB support levels. So the Conservatives actually lose a handful of seats overall because of their strong performance in Scotland.

Full details are on the Scottish pages.

Posted 5 December 2016

New Boundaries : Scotland

The Boundary Commission for Scotland have published their initial proposals for the new Westminster seat boundaries in Scotland. These have now been analysed and you can see the summary analysis on the 2018 Boundaries page, as well as detailed projections for East Scotland and West Scotland.

In Scotland, the Conservatives and Labour each have only one seat. And both of these seats are vulnerable to the new boundaries, which potentially wipes out both the major parties in Scotland. The SNP are projected to win 52 out of the 53 new Scottish seats, with the Lib Dems retaining the unchanged seat of Orkney and Shetland.

Posted 20 October 2016

New Boundaries : England and Wales

The Boundary Commissions for England and Wales published their initial proposals on 13 September 2016 for the new seat boundaries.

Electoral Calculus has performed a full analysis of the impact of the changes on the UK political make-up, as well as calculating which seats disappear, which change hands, and which fresh seats are newly created.

Visit the Boundaries 2018 page for full details and links to all regions and seats.

Also region-by-region breakdowns are available:

The user-defined predictor can now make predictions on the basis of the new boundaries (with 599 seats rather than 600, until the Scottish Commission reports).

A write-up of the Electoral Calculus' research is also available from the Daily Telegraph as both a news story and a full analysis.

Posted 15-Sep-2016