General Election Prediction

May 2015 Election Results: Conservative Majority of 12

Party2010 Votes2010 Seats2015 Votes2015 Seats
CON 37.0%307 37.8%331
LAB 29.7%258 31.2%232
LIB 23.6%57 8.1%8
UKIP 3.2%0 12.9%1
Green 1.0%1 3.8%1
SNP 1.7%6 4.9%56
PlaidC 0.6%3 0.6%3
Minor 3.4%0 0.8%0
N.Ire 18 18

Local Election Results and Boundaries Update 2015

The seat detail pages now have the new local election results, and updated local ward boundaries where they have changed. This major data upgrade shows clearly the interplay between recent national and local elections, as well as showing more details about the political make-up of each constituency.

You can see these new seat details by going to the index pages on the left-hand menu bar (England A-B, ..., Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland), or by using the postcode lookup for any UK location:

Postcode:   

An example seat is Arundel and South Downs (BN14 0TF) which has had updated boundaries.

Results include the following parties shown separately:

 
GBConLabLibUKIPGreenSNP/Plaid Other
NIDUPSDLP UKIPGreenSinn FeinUUPOther
 GBNI
ConDUP
LabSDLP
Lib 
UKIPUKIP
GreenGreen
SNP/PlaidSinn Fein
 UUP
OtherOther

Local election results used are now:

Since 2010, sixty-two English councils have been given new boundaries by the Local Government Boundary Commission for England (LGBCE), and these new boundaries took effect at the 2015 elections. These new ward boundaries are now included for both the results drilldown and the accompanying maps.

In Northern Ireland, there has been a substantial redrawing of boundaries. There are now 11 district councils, with 462 wards which are grouped into 80 District Electoral Areas (DEAs). The NI local elections were conducted in 2014 using the DEAs, so Northern Ireland mapping and analysis is based on the DEAs rather than the actual wards. Please note that NI mapping data is difficult to obtain freely, so some boundaries may be slightly approximate.

It is expected that the Boundary Commissions will redraw parliamentary constituencies starting from Spring 2016 and using these 2015 local ward boundaries as their basic building blocks.

Voter Migration Flows: post-election update

Many thanks to everyone who took the time to say how much they liked the voter migration flow graphic. Several people also suggested it would be even better with the real support figures, rather than the incorrect picture given by the pre-election polling.

Here is the revised graphic. Compared with the previous version, it has the correct support figures, which means that both the Conservatives and Labour are each one voter better off than in 2010. The Liberal Democrats are reduced to eight voters. There is a new flow of two voters from Labour to Conservative, and one fewer voter leaving each of the Conservatives and the Lib Dems for UKIP.

The UKIP group of 13 voters includes three voters who previously voted for other minor parties such as the BNP in 2010, but these voters are not shown on the diagram.

Although Liberal Democrat voters split two-to-one in favour of Labour over the Conservatives, the Conservatives gained twice as many seats (27) from the Lib Dems as Labour did (12).

Full analysis of 2010-15 voter migration is now available, with accompanying data tables.

30 May 2015

New Boundary Estimates: Conservative Majority of 50

There has been recent interest in the likely effect of new boundaries which may be brought in under this parliament. Electoral Calculus prepared a full set of notional implied results under the 600-seat "Sixth Periodic review" of boundaries which was conducted around 2013.

Although these boundaries were not used in 2015, they can still give a good approximation of the likely effect of the boundary changes. If we use the actual election result (adjusted slightly to compensate for model deficiencies) and feed it into the user-defined predictor, then we can see the effect of the boundaries.

Using these figures and the old boundaries gives CON 331, LAB 232, LIB 9, UKIP 1, Green 1, SNP 55, and Plaid 3, which is almost exactly correct. Then when we switch to the proposed 2013 boundaries we get

CONLABLIBSNPPlaidN.Ire
325202549316

This gives the Conservatives a majority of 50 seats, well ahead of their current majority of 12. This is equivalent of nearly another twenty seats for the Conservatives.

Without any change to legislation, the Sixth Review should restart this year for completion in 2018. It looks unlikely that the Conservative government would want to slow this process down.

13 May 2015