General Election Prediction

Current Prediction: Conservative short 21 of majority

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesPred Seats
CON 43.5%318 40.9%305
LAB 41.0%262 39.7%264
LIB 7.6%12 8.4%15
UKIP 1.9%0 3.3%0
Green 1.7%1 2.6%1
SNP 3.1%35 3.4%44
PlaidC 0.5%4 0.5%3
Minor 0.7%0 1.2%0
N.Ire 18 18

Prediction based on opinion polls from 05 Jun 2018 to 27 Jun 2018, sampling 9,162 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Conservative majority
41%
Labour majority
31%
Con/Nat coalition
7%
Lab choice of Lib/Nat
6%
Lab/Nat coalition
5%
Con choice of Lib/Nat
4%
Nat choice of Con/Lab
4%
No overall control
2%

The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. ('Nat' means SNP+PlaidC)