General Election Prediction

Current Prediction: Labour short 10 of majority

Party2010 Votes2010 SeatsPred VotesPred Seats
CON36.97%30730.73%251
LAB29.66%25833.20%316
LIB23.56%57 8.19%19
UKIP 3.17%017.17%0
NAT 2.26%9 4.14%45
MIN 4.37%19 6.57%19

Prediction based on opinion polls from 07 Nov 14 to 27 Nov 14, sampling 10,999 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Labour majority
44%
Lab/Nat coalition
14%
Lab choice of Lib/Nat
12%
Con/Nat coalition
9%
Conservative majority
8%
Nat choice of Con/Lab
7%
Con choice of Lib/Nat
3%
No overall control
2%

The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election.

Salmond redux

UK Electoral Battleground for 2015

Currently there is about a 50% chance of a hung parliament in 2015. This detailed diagram of the electoral battleground maps out the several possible outcomes. The growth of SNP support in Scotland creates a genuine four-party system at Westminster with a range of possible coalition permutations. Conservative support is given by the horizontal axis, and Labour support by the vertical axis. The current support position (Con 30.7%, Lab 33.2% at December 2014) is shown by the circular blue marker inside the "Lab choice of Lib/Nat" zone, where Labour can choose its coalition partner.

Alex Salmond's likely return to Westminster may be well-judged. There are several zones where the SNP would be an essential part of any two-party coalition, and their total probability is 33% as at December 2014. That means that there is a good chance, at odds of only two-to-one against, that Alex Salmond will be a kingmaker or deputy prime minister of the next UK government.

Technical notes: Map only shows movement for the Conservative, Labour and Liberal Democrat parties. It assumes the votes for other parties, including UKIP and the SNP, are fixed at current support levels. UKIP are not currently to predicted to win many seats, so they are not yet a factor in coalition permutations. Since other parties have 28% support nationally, the map is missing the top-right corner where the Conservative plus Labour total would be more than 72%.

Full analysis article.