General Election Prediction

Current Prediction: Labour short 42 of majority

Party2010 Votes2010 SeatsPred VotesPred Seats
CON 37.0%307 33.2%277
LAB 29.7%258 31.7%284
LIB 23.6%57 10.2%18
UKIP 3.2%0 13.3%2
Green 1.0%1 5.4%1
SNP 1.7%6 4.0%47
PlaidC 0.6%3 0.6%3
Minor 3.4%0 1.6%0
N.Ire 18 18

Prediction based on opinion polls from 12 Apr 2015 to 25 Apr 2015, sampling 21,495 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Lab/Nat coalition
22%
Con/Nat coalition
19%
Nat choice of Con/Lab
18%
Lab choice of Lib/Nat
14%
Con choice of Lib/Nat
10%
Labour majority
10%
Conservative majority
6%
No overall control
1%

The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. ('Nat' means SNP+PlaidC)

Tectonic Voter Migrations

The graphic shows how voters have switched allegiance between the parties since 2010. One hundred typical voters are shown, with the arrows showing their various migrations from one party to another. "Lost" voters to a party are coloured grey, and "gained" voters carry a white cross.

The graphic makes clear the collapse in Lib Dem support and the growth of the minor parties. It also contains some bad news for the Conservatives.

See the full article and data tables.

Battleground April 2015

UK Electoral Battleground for 2015

Currently there is about a 80% chance of a hung parliament in 2015. This detailed diagram of the electoral battleground maps out the several possible outcomes. The growth of SNP support in Scotland creates a genuine four-party system at Westminster with a range of possible coalition permutations. Conservative support is given by the horizontal axis, and Labour support by the vertical axis. The current support position (Con 33.6%, Lab 31.7% at 25 April 2015) is shown by the circular blue marker inside the "Nat choice of Con/Lab" zone, where the SNP has the balance of power.

Technical notes: Map only shows movement for the Conservative, Labour and Liberal Democrat parties. It assumes the votes for other parties, including UKIP and the SNP, are fixed at current support levels. UKIP are not currently to predicted to win many seats, so they are not yet a factor in coalition permutations. Since other parties have 28% support nationally, the map is missing the top-right corner where the Conservative plus Labour total would be more than 72%.

Full analysis article.