Electoral Calculus predicts the next British General Election result using
scientific analysis of opinion polls and electoral geography.
If there were a General Election tomorrow, what would happen?
Current Prediction: Conservative majority 56
| Party | 2005 Votes | 2005 Seats | Pred Votes | Pred Seats |
| CON | 33.24% | 208 | 41.18% | 353 |
| LAB | 36.21% | 347 | 28.01% | 220 |
| LIB | 22.65% | 66 | 18.65% | 42 |
Prediction based on opinion polls from 16 Apr 08 to 27 Apr 08, sampling 6,153 people.
These pages last updated Thu 01 May 2008 19:33.
Strong Transition Model (28-Oct-2007) Our new model
builds on Electoral Calculus' unique prediction model to allow for effects such as
incumbency and local party strength. This is useful for predicting the Liberal Democrats in their
current weakened state and avoids the prediction of zero seats.
Find your new constituency (5-Oct-2007) We now have a helpful
tool which can tell you which new consituency you live in.
All you need to know is your postcode or local council ward name.
This website explains where these predictions come from, and shows
you how you can make your own predictions at any time. There are
also detailed predictions of every seat, including a list of target
vulnerable seats, and a complete nationwide list of seat predictions.
New Boundaries All predictions on the site are now based on
new constituency boundaries which were finalised in July 2006.
These boundary changes take approximately 10 seats away from Labour and gives them to the Conservatives.
The House of Commons will have 650 seats, so 326 seats are required for a majority.
Also freely available are data files containing the seat-by-seat results of
the last five elections.