Currently there is about a 50% chance of a hung parliament in 2015. This detailed diagram of the electoral
battleground maps out the several possible outcomes. The growth of SNP support in Scotland creates a genuine
four-party system at Westminster with a range of possible coalition permutations. Conservative support is given
by the horizontal axis, and Labour support by the vertical axis. The current support position (Con 30.7%, Lab 33.2%
at December 2014) is shown by the circular blue marker inside the "Lab choice of Lib/Nat" zone, where
Labour can choose its coalition partner.
Alex Salmond's likely return to Westminster may be well-judged. There are several zones where the SNP would be
an essential part of any two-party coalition, and their total probability is 33% as at December 2014.
That means that there is a good chance, at odds of only two-to-one against, that Alex Salmond will be
a kingmaker or deputy prime minister of the next UK government.
Technical notes: Map only shows movement for the Conservative, Labour and Liberal Democrat parties. It
assumes the votes for other parties, including UKIP and the SNP, are fixed at current support levels. UKIP
are not currently to predicted to win many seats, so they are not yet a factor in coalition permutations.
Since other parties have 28% support nationally, the map is missing the top-right corner where the
Conservative plus Labour total would be more than 72%.
Full analysis article.