Electoral Calculus: General Election Prediction

Electoral Calculus predicts the next British General Election result using scientific analysis of opinion polls and electoral geography.

If there were a General Election tomorrow, what would happen?

Current Prediction: Conservative short 21 of majority

Party	2010 Votes	2010 Seats	Pred Votes	Pred Seats
CON	36.97%	307	39.68%	305
LAB	29.66%	258	36.37%	295
LIB	23.56%	57	14.49%	21
NAT	2.26%	9	3.03%	11
MIN	7.54%	19	6.43%	18

Conservative majority

36%

Labour majority

28%

Con/Lib coalition

14%

Lab/Lib coaliltion

14%

Lib choice of coalition

No overall control

Probability of possible outcomes

Prediction based on opinion polls from 23 Jul 10 to 26 Aug 10, sampling 6,052 people.

These pages last updated Sat 28 Aug 2010 12:10.

Model Comparison 2010 (1 July 2010): How did our Strong Transition Model compare against the Uniform National Swing model and others. Full model analysis here.

Track Record 2010 (16 May 2010): Full analysis and debrief of the 2010 results in terms of successful and unsuccessful predictions, Analysis of 2010.

Election 2010 Results Available: New predictions are now based on the results of the May 2010 General Election. If there is a subsequent election, then the result is predicted here. Currently we are assuming the same constituency boundaries and voting system.

This website explains where these predictions come from, and shows you how you can make your own predictions at any time. There are also detailed predictions of every seat, including a list of target vulnerable seats, and a complete nationwide list of seat predictions.

Also freely available are data files containing the seat-by-seat results of all general elections since 1983.