General Election Prediction

Current Prediction: Labour majority 40

Party2010 Votes2010 SeatsPred VotesPred Seats
CON36.97%30732.65%257
LAB29.66%25835.52%345
LIB23.56%57 7.90%17
UKIP 3.17%013.65%0
NAT 2.26%9 2.78%12
MIN 4.37%19 7.50%19

Prediction based on opinion polls from 11 Jul 14 to 01 Aug 14, sampling 10,026 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Conservative majority
13%
Labour majority
61%
Con/Lib coalition
5%
Lab/Lib coalition
11%
Lib choice of coalition
0%
No overall control
10%

The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election.

Can the Conservatives win?

Runups to General Elections

Each election since 1983 is represented by a two-segment line which shows the state of the major parties in the run-up to the election. The line shows where their poll support was at (a) two years before the election (start of the line), (b) one year before the election (shown by a small dot), and (c) the election result itself (marked with a labelled dot). The average opinion poll support over 2013 is marked with a grey circle.

Read the analysis and conclusions from this data to see if the Conservatives can win.