General Election Prediction

Current Prediction: Labour majority 92

Prediction based on opinion polls from 11 May 13 to 31 May 13, sampling 6,957 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Conservative majority	2%
Labour majority	86%
Con/Lib coalition	2%
Lab/Lib coaliltion	7%
Lib choice of coalition	0%
No overall control	2%

The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election.

UK's top General Election predictor

Electoral Calculus predicts the next British General Election result using scientific analysis of opinion polls and electoral geography.

We have been making election predictions for twenty years, and were the most accurate pre-poll predictor at the last General Election in May 2010.

These pages last updated on Thu 06 Jun 2013 21:55.

Update: UKIP Electoral Analysis

An updated version of our pioneering UKIP analysis of their Westminster chances shows that UKIP's position is a bit stronger than the initial estimate, but it's still hard for them to win many MPs.

Also the Electoral Calculus user-defined prediction has been upgraded to offer full predictions for UKIP.

14 June 2013

Zoomable Map

Experience our innovative and ground-breaking zoomable map to see the prediction at national and local levels simultaneously.

Just zoom-in to see seat-by-seat prediction details, and zoom-out to see the whole country at once.

Try it now at Zoomable Map.

16 March 2013

Features available

This website explains where these predictions come from, and lets you make your own predictions. There are also detailed predictions of every seat, including a list of target vulnerable seats, and a complete nationwide list of seat predictions.

Also freely available are data files containing the seat-by-seat results of all general elections since 1983.