The target seats that each large party must win are shown in the colours of the first two columns. Essential seats for Labour to win have a light-red background in the first column, and essential seats for the Conservatives have a light-blue background in the second column. Keys battleground seats are those essential for both parties.
The predicted performance of the parties can be measured against their targets with the final column, which is the predicted winner of the seat. Labour needs its target seats to be coloured red, and the Conservatives need their target seats to be coloured blue. Both parties need to win over voters in the battleground seats.
Return to majority-sorted seat list.
|Seat||MP at 2017||Electorate||Turn|
|1||580||Liverpool Walton||Dan Carden||62,738||67.3||8.6||85.7||1.5||0.0||1.3||0.0||2.9||0.0||LAB||LAB|
|255||326||Ashfield||Gloria De Piero||78,099||64.0||41.7||42.6||2.0||3.8||0.8||0.0||9.2||0.0||LAB||LAB|
|291||290||Morley and Outwood||Andrea Jenkyns||76,495||68.4||50.7||46.7||2.6||0.0||0.0||0.0||0.0||0.0||CON||CON|
In the example we see the safest Labour seat, Liverpool Walton, at the top of the list. It has a 'Lab Seats' score of 1 – meaning that it is the 1st strongest Labour seat in the country, and that if Labour just win it and no more, they will only have one seat in total. If the Conservatives just win Liverpool Walton, then they will have won 580 seats. That total is less than 650, because there are 18 Northern Ireland seats plus around 50 seats won by the SNP and smaller parties which are not influenced by Labour-Conservative swings. The 'Lab Seats' score for Liverpool Walton has a light-red background colour indicating that it is a target seat that Labour must win if they are to have a majority. The predicted winner of the seat, shown in the last column, is Labour. So Labour are on target as far as this seat is concerned.
The second seat, Knowsley, is similar. It has a 'Lab Seats' score of 2 - Labour will only win 2 seats if they can just win Knowsley. It is also predicted to be a Labour seat.
Further down, Ashfield has a 'Lab Seats' score of 255 (it is an essential Labour seat), but its 'Con Seats' score of 326 is just greater than 325, so the Conservatives would just have a majority if they win this seat. The seat is predicted to be a Labour hold.
Towards the middle of the list, Copeland has a 'Lab Seats' score of 290 and a 'Con Seats' score of 291. That means that Labour will win 290 seats if it can just barely win Copeland, and the Conservatives will win 291 seats if they can just barely win it. This puts the seat firmly in the electoral battleground for the next general election as the seat is essential to both parties. This is shown by the colouring of both the 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats' columns. The seat is currently predicted to be a Conservative hold. Morley and Outwood is similar.
At the bottom is the safest Conservative seat, Buckingham. (The speaker is deemed to be a Conservative.) It is essential for the Conservatives, and Labour will win 580 seats if they can capture it.