Majority-sorted Seat List Description

The target seats that each large party must win are shown in the colours of the first two columns. Essential seats for Labour to win have a light-red background in the first column, and essential seats for the Conservatives have a light-blue background in the second column. Keys battleground seats are those essential for both parties.

The predicted performance of the parties can be measured against their targets with the final column, which is the predicted winner of the seat. Labour needs its target seats to be coloured red, and the Conservatives need their target seats to be coloured blue. Both parties need to win over voters in the battleground seats.

Return to majority-sorted seat list.

Example with description

In the example we see the safest Labour seat, Knowsley, at the top of the list. It has a 'Lab Seats' score of 1 - meaning that it is the 1st strongest Labour seat in the country, and that if Labour just win it and no more, they will only have one seat in total. If the Conservatives just win Knowsley, then they will have won 602 seats. That total is less than 650, because there are 18 Northern Ireland seats plus around 30 seats won by smaller parties which are not influenced by Labour-Conservative swings. The 'Lab Seats' score for Knowsley has a light-red background colour indicating that it is a target seat that Labour must win if they are to have a majority. The predicted winner of the seat, shown in the last column, is Labour. So Labour are on target as far as this seat is concerned.

The second seat, Liverpool Walton, is similar. It has a 'Lab Seats' score of 2 - Labour will only win 2 seats if they can just win Liverpool Walton. It is also predicted to be a Labour seat.

Towards the middle of the list, Great Yarmouth has a 'Lab Seats' score of 300 and a 'Con Seats' score of 303. That means that Labour will win 300 seats if it can just barely win Great Yarmouth, and the Conservatives will win 303 seats if they can just barely win it. This puts the seat firmly in the electoral battleground for the next general election as the seat is essential to both parties. This is shown by the colouring of both the 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats' columns. The seat is currently predicted to be a Labour hold. Lincoln is similar.

Further down, Stafford has a 'Con Seats' score of 275 (it is an essential Conservative seat), but its 'Lab Seats' score of 328 is just greater than 325, so Labour could have a majority without winning this seat. The seat is predicted to be a Conservative gain from Labour, so the seat's name has a strong blue background colour. (The last two columns are also more coloured than usual to help visually signal the gained seat.)

At the bottom is the safest Conservative seat, Orpington. It is essential for the Conservatives, and Labour will win 602 seats if they can capture it.

Description of each column

1. Lab Seats : number of seats that Labour will win if they beat the Conservatives in this seat and every safer seat. This assumes that other smaller parties votes remain constant, so that it will count only seats which are predicted to be won by either Labour or Conservative. The first 325 seats are shown with a light-red background colour to indicate that these seats are essential to Labour if it is to win a majority. If it fails to beat the Conservatives in all of these seats, it is unlikely to have a majority.
2. Con Seats : number of seats that the Conservatives will win if they beat Labour in this seat and every other seat in which they are stronger. This count increases from the bottom of the list. The first 325 Conservative seats are shown with a light-blue background colour to indicate that these seats are essential to the Conservatives if they are to win a majority. Key battleground seats are those which have both a light-red 'Lab Seats' count and a light-blue 'Con Seats' count.
3. Seat : name of the seat, using the new constituency boundaries.
4. MP at 2005 : name of the MP elected for that seat at the 2005 general election. This person may not still be the current MP for that seat, and may not be the candidate for that party at the next election. For seats whose boundary has changed, the sitting MP is assumed to have been elected for the new seat which forms the largest part of the old seat (if the winning party is the same).
5. Electorate : number of registered voters in the seat at the general election in 2005.
6. Turnout% : percentage of the electorate that voted in 2005.
7. CON% : predicted percentage of votes cast for the Conservatives in this seat.
8. LAB% : predicted percentage of votes cast for Labour.
9. LIB% : predicted percentage of votes cast for the Liberal Democrats.
10. NAT% : predicted percentage of votes cast for nationalist parties (SNP in Scotland, Plaid Cymru in Wales).
11. MIN% : predicted percentage of votes cast for minor parties (such as Respect and independent candidates).
12. OTH% : predicted percentage of votes cast for other parties.
13. 2005 Win : winning party in this seat at the 2005 general election.
14. Pred Win : predicted winning party in this seat now.

Additional notes

• Strictly speaking, seats are not sorted by majority but by the difference between the Labour and Conservative shares of the vote. Some apparently safe seats may in fact be Conservative-LibDem or Labour-SNP marginals.
• The list resembles a one-dimensional swingometer, which does not allow the LibDem or nationalist parties votes to change. So even if Labour does very well against the Conservatives, it will not win any extra LibDem or Nat seats.
• All seats are shown with predictions based on the new constituency boundaries. There will be 650 seats in the new House of Commons.
• The 'MP at 2005' is neither neccessarily the sitting MP nor that party's candidate at the next election.