2005 Opinion Polls

2005 Final campaign opinion polls

Campaign Opinion Polls 2005

The final polls of the 2005 campaign are listed here

PollsterSample datesSample sizeCON%LAB%LIB%
ELECTION 20017 Jun 200132.742.118.8
Independent on Sunday/CommRes23 Apr 05 - 28 Apr 051,091313923
Financial Times/MORI29 Apr 05 - 1 May 051,009293922
The Guardian/ICM1 May 05 - 3 May 051,532323822
The Independent/NOP1 May 05 - 3 May 051,000333623
Sky News/YouGov2 May 05 - 3 May 052,368323625
The Times/Populus2 May 05 - 3 May 052,042323821
Daily Telegraph/YouGov3 May 05 - 4 May 053962323724
Evening Standard/MORI3 May 05 - 4 May 051623333823
AVERAGE23 Apr 05 - 3 May 059,04231.737.522.8
ELECTION 20055 May 200533.236.222.6

The table shows that the polls were quite accurate, but still overestimated the Labour lead by about 3%.

2005 Final Scottish campaign opinion polls

Scottish Opinion Polls 2001-5

PollsterSample datesSample sizeCON%LAB%LIB%SNP%
ELECTION 20017 Jun 200115.644.016.320.1
Daily Telegraph/YouGov25 Jan 05 - 24 Mar 051,94518361921
STV/MORI26 Jan 05 - 5 Apr 0593418471515
Sunday Mail/Scottish Opinion26 Apr 05 - 28 Apr 0552416401721
AVERAGE25 Jan 05 - 28 Apr 053,40317.739.617.619.4
ELECTION 20055 May 200515.839.522.617.7

The polls estimated Labour's vote share very accurately, but overestimated both the Conservatives and the SNP at the expense of the Liberal Democrats.

There was also a series of System3 polls which were commissioned by the SNP themselves. Electoral Calculus chose not to use those polls because their independence could be not be guaranteed, despite pressure from the SNP and some of its supporters. Those polls overestimated SNP support by about 5%, so we are glad that we did not rely upon them.


© Electoral Calculus.