2010 Opinion Polls

2010 Final campaign opinion polls

Campaign Opinion Polls 2010

The final polls of the 2010 campaign are listed here

PollsterSample datesSample sizeCON%LAB%LIB%
ELECTION 20055 May 200533.236.222.6
News of the World/Ipsos-MORI23 Apr 10 - 23 Apr 101,245363023
The Guardian/ICM3 May 10 - 4 May 102,022362826
The Sun/YouGov4 May 10 - 5 May 106,483352828
The Times/Populus4 May 10 - 5 May 102,505372827
Political Betting/Angus Reid4 May 10 - 5 May 102,283362429
Daily Mail/Harris4 May 10 - 5 May 103,406352927
The Independent; ITV/ComRes4 May 10 - 5 May 101,025372828
POLL AVERAGE23 Apr 10 - 5 May 1018,96935.727.827.3
Sporting Index (implied)5 May 10 - 5 May 1010,00036.827.226.3
OVERALL AVERAGE23 Apr 10 - 5 May 1028,96936.127.626.9
ELECTION 20106 May 201037.029.723.6

The table shows that the polls were very accurate for estimating the Conservative-Labour lead. Both the pollsters and the betting markets overestimated the vote share of the Lib Dems by about 3%. Ipsos-MORI was clearly the most accurate pollster at this election, and Angus Reid was the least accurate.

2010 Final Scottish campaign opinion polls

Scottish Opinion Polls 2005-10

PollsterSample datesSample sizeCON%LAB%LIB%SNP%
ELECTION 20055 May 200515.839.522.617.7
STV/Ipsos-MORI14 Apr 10 - 17 Apr 101,00514362026
The Times/Populus23 Apr 10 - 26 Apr 101,00016372419
Scottish Mail on Sunday/TNS-BMRB21 Apr 10 - 27 Apr 101,02913441623
The Scotsman/YouGov3 May 10 - 3 May 101,50717372221
AVERAGE14 Apr 10 - 3 May 104,54115.238.420.622.1
ELECTION 20106 May 201016.742.018.919.9

The polls generally underestimated both Labour (particularly) and the Conservatives and over-estimated the SNP and the Liberal Democrats. Ipsos-MORI was the least successful pollster in this regard, estimating the Labour-SNP lead at 10% when it turned out to be 22%, though their last Scottish poll was taken three weeks before polling day.


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