2015 Opinion polls

2015 Final campaign opinion polls

Campaign Polls From 2015

The final campaign opinion polls from May 2015 are listed here

PollsterSample datesSample sizeCON%LAB%LIB%UKIP%Green%
ELECTION 20106 May 201037.029.723.63.21.0
TNS BMRB30 Apr 2015 - 04 May 20151,18533328146
The Sun/YouGov04 May 2015 - 05 May 20152,14834349125
Opinium04 May 2015 - 05 May 20152,96035348126
The Guardian/ICM03 May 2015 - 06 May 20152,02335359114
Daily Mirror/Survation04 May 2015 - 06 May 20154,088313110165
Daily Mail;
ITV News/ComRes
05 May 2015 - 06 May 20151,00735349124
Evening Standard/Ipsos-MORI05 May 2015 - 06 May 20151,18636358115
Populus05 May 2015 - 07 May 20153,91734349135
Poll Average30 Apr 2015 - 07 May 201518,51433.733.48.913.0 5.1
SportingIndex06 May 2015 - 06 May 201518,50033.329.013.012.9 5.2
AVERAGE30 Apr 2015 - 07 May 201537,01433.531.211.013.0 5.1
Actual Result07 May 2015 37.831.28.112.93.8

The pollsters had the gap between the Conservatives and Labour quite wrong. They saw a gap of just 0.3%, but the actual gap was 6.6%. They had the smaller parties more correct, though slightly overstated the Green party. The betting markets were a bit closer, but significantly overestimated the Liberal Democrats.

2015 Final campaign Scottish opinion polls

Scottish Opinion Polls From 2010

PollsterSample datesSample sizeCON%LAB%LIB%UKIP%Green%SNP%
ELECTION 20106 May 201016.742.018.90.70.719.9
Sunday Times/Panelbase20 Apr 2015 - 23 Apr 20151,044162743248
Daily Record/Survation22 Apr 2015 - 27 Apr 20151,015142652151
STV News/Ipsos-MORI22 Apr 2015 - 27 Apr 20151,071172051254
YouGov aggregation31 Mar 2015 - 29 Apr 20152,225162864343
Sunday Times/YouGov29 Apr 2015 - 01 May 20151,162152672149
Poll Average20 Apr 2015 - 01 May 20156,51715.725.95.52.72.047.9
Actual Result07 May 2015 14.924.37.51.6 1.350.0

The pollsters were more accurate for the Scottish voting intention. Although UKIP and the Greens were estimated a little high, and the SNP and the Lib Dems were a little low, the result was broadly in line with the predicted vote shares.


© Electoral Calculus.