2017 Opinion polls

2017 Final campaign opinion polls

Opinion Polls 2015-2017

The final campaign opinion polls from June 2017 are listed here

PollsterSample datesSample sizeCON%LAB%LIB%UKIP%Green%
ELECTION 20157 May 201537.831.28.112.93.8
Opinium04 Jun 2017 - 06 Jun 20173,0024336852
Kantar Public01 Jun 2017 - 07 Jun 20172,1594338742
Panelbase02 Jun 2017 - 07 Jun 20173,0184436752
ComRes/Independent05 Jun 2017 - 07 Jun 20172,0514434952
YouGov/The Times05 Jun 2017 - 07 Jun 20172,13042351052
ICM/The Guardian06 Jun 2017 - 07 Jun 20171,5324634752
Ipsos-MORI/Evening Standard06 Jun 2017 - 07 Jun 20171,2914436742
Survation06 Jun 2017 - 07 Jun 20172,7984140822
AVERAGE04 Jun 2017 - 07 Jun 201717,98143.236.4 7.9 4.3 2.0
Actual Result08 Jun 2015 43.541.07.61.91.7

The pollsters had an error in the gap between the Conservatives and Labour. They saw an average gap of 6.8%, but the actual gap was only 2.5%.

2017 Final campaign Scottish opinion polls

Scottish Opinion Polls 2015-2017

PollsterSample datesSample sizeCON%LAB%LIB%UKIP%Green%SNP%
ELECTION 20157 May 201514.924.37.51.61.350.0
Ipsos-MORI/STV22 May 2017 - 27 May 20171,016252551143
Panelbase/Sunday Times26 May 2017 - 31 May 20171,021302052142
Survation/Sunday Post31 May 2017 - 02 Jun 20171,024272561140
YouGov/Times01 Jun 2017 - 05 Jun 20171,093262561141
Poll Average20 Apr 2015 - 01 May 20154,15427.023.85.41.31.041.5
Actual Result08 Jun 2017 28.627.16.80.20.236.9

There was some noticeable error in the polls for Scottish voting intention as well. Labour's vote was underestimated, and the SNP vote was overestimated. The SNP lead over Labour was estimated at 18pc, but was actually only 10pc. So the loss of SNP seats was more than was expected. The broad outline of the result was unaffected — the polls correctly suggested that the SNP would lose seats, but still win most seats, and that the Conservatives would gain seats.


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