East Scotland: Majority Sorted Seats

This page shows all the seats in East Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Angus (prediction: NAT), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Orkney and Shetland (prediction: LIB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of East Scotland seats with predictions

Lab
Seats
Con
Seats
SeatMP at 2005ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
NAT
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2005
Win
Pred
Win
15563Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath Gordon Brown71,60658.414.1447.196.3428.600.003.73LABLAB
20558Glenrothes John MacDougall66,56356.110.9041.016.1537.370.004.57LABLAB
33545Livingston Robin Cook76,35358.114.2040.217.4936.470.001.63LABLAB
34544Falkirk Eric Joyce76,78459.614.0439.967.7736.550.001.68LABLAB
53525Dunfermline and West Fife Rachel Squire70,77559.914.9036.549.8835.790.002.89LABLAB
54523Dundee West James McGovern65,85756.112.2533.697.0044.590.002.47LABNAT
54523Linlithgow and East Falkirk Michael Connarty76,73960.515.8636.797.4438.400.001.51LABNAT
56522Midlothian David Hamilton60,64462.213.9434.6015.9433.750.001.77LABLAB
69508Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles) Angus MacNeil21,57659.38.0526.424.1660.660.000.70NATNAT
75502Aberdeen North Frank Doran65,71455.713.9931.5713.6339.070.001.73LABNAT
96481Edinburgh East Gavin Strang64,82661.314.9829.1414.1434.200.007.54LABNAT
113465East Lothian Anne Picking70,98964.520.5930.5814.5430.050.004.25LABLAB
121456Dundee East Stewart Hosie63,33562.416.4225.345.5350.520.002.20NATNAT
136441Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey Danny Alexander69,63663.614.9620.0230.0130.510.004.51LIBNAT
137440Aberdeen South Anne Begg67,01262.121.7125.8023.1726.730.002.58LABNAT
161417Edinburgh South West Alistair Darling67,13565.427.9228.8910.7827.580.004.83LABLAB
167410Edinburgh North and Leith Mark Lazarowicz68,03862.723.3523.3418.9027.330.007.08LABNAT
203375Stirling Anne McGuire64,55467.729.7125.1110.4429.610.005.14LABCON
203374Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross John Thurso46,83759.114.8610.0340.1730.300.004.63LIBLIB
205372Ochil and South Perthshire Gordon Banks70,73166.025.3220.476.4744.090.003.65LABNAT
215363Edinburgh South Nigel Griffiths60,99370.028.7022.3322.0023.090.003.87LABCON
221356Ross Skye and Lochaber Charles Kennedy50,50764.414.126.7948.4224.490.006.19LIBLIB
246331Orkney and Shetland Alistair Carmichael33,04853.717.226.4441.2224.815.594.72LIBLIB
264313Gordon Malcolm Bruce71,92561.822.199.3234.7432.700.001.05LIBLIB
284293Edinburgh West John Barrett65,74168.923.908.4839.2425.380.002.99LIBLIB
296281Banff and Buchan Alex Salmond65,57056.822.305.486.4661.970.003.79NATNAT
297280Moray Angus Robertson66,46358.426.439.529.3453.050.001.65NATNAT
299278Fife North East Sir Menzies Campbell62,05762.123.275.8141.8224.290.004.81LIBLIB
354223Angus Michael Weir63,09360.533.528.178.4848.490.001.34NATNAT
357221Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk Michael Moore71,70263.332.977.2331.5623.760.004.48LIBCON
357220Perth and North Perthshire Peter Wishart70,89564.834.348.537.8348.290.001.02NATNAT
358219Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine Sir Robert Smith65,54863.532.115.9836.0225.050.000.84LIBLIB

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2005. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.