East Scotland: Majority Sorted Seats

This page shows all the seats in East Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Angus (prediction: NAT), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Orkney and Shetland (prediction: LIB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of East Scotland seats with predictions

Lab Seats	Con Seats	Seat	MP at 2005	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	NAT %	MIN %	OTH %	2005 Win	Pred Win
15	563	Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath	Gordon Brown	71,606	58.4	14.14	47.19	6.34	28.60	0.00	3.73	LAB	LAB
20	558	Glenrothes	John MacDougall	66,563	56.1	10.90	41.01	6.15	37.37	0.00	4.57	LAB	LAB
33	545	Livingston	Robin Cook	76,353	58.1	14.20	40.21	7.49	36.47	0.00	1.63	LAB	LAB
34	544	Falkirk	Eric Joyce	76,784	59.6	14.04	39.96	7.77	36.55	0.00	1.68	LAB	LAB
53	525	Dunfermline and West Fife	Rachel Squire	70,775	59.9	14.90	36.54	9.88	35.79	0.00	2.89	LAB	LAB
54	523	Dundee West	James McGovern	65,857	56.1	12.25	33.69	7.00	44.59	0.00	2.47	LAB	NAT
54	523	Linlithgow and East Falkirk	Michael Connarty	76,739	60.5	15.86	36.79	7.44	38.40	0.00	1.51	LAB	NAT
56	522	Midlothian	David Hamilton	60,644	62.2	13.94	34.60	15.94	33.75	0.00	1.77	LAB	LAB
69	508	Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles)	Angus MacNeil	21,576	59.3	8.05	26.42	4.16	60.66	0.00	0.70	NAT	NAT
75	502	Aberdeen North	Frank Doran	65,714	55.7	13.99	31.57	13.63	39.07	0.00	1.73	LAB	NAT
96	481	Edinburgh East	Gavin Strang	64,826	61.3	14.98	29.14	14.14	34.20	0.00	7.54	LAB	NAT
113	465	East Lothian	Anne Picking	70,989	64.5	20.59	30.58	14.54	30.05	0.00	4.25	LAB	LAB
121	456	Dundee East	Stewart Hosie	63,335	62.4	16.42	25.34	5.53	50.52	0.00	2.20	NAT	NAT
136	441	Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey	Danny Alexander	69,636	63.6	14.96	20.02	30.01	30.51	0.00	4.51	LIB	NAT
137	440	Aberdeen South	Anne Begg	67,012	62.1	21.71	25.80	23.17	26.73	0.00	2.58	LAB	NAT
161	417	Edinburgh South West	Alistair Darling	67,135	65.4	27.92	28.89	10.78	27.58	0.00	4.83	LAB	LAB
167	410	Edinburgh North and Leith	Mark Lazarowicz	68,038	62.7	23.35	23.34	18.90	27.33	0.00	7.08	LAB	NAT
203	375	Stirling	Anne McGuire	64,554	67.7	29.71	25.11	10.44	29.61	0.00	5.14	LAB	CON
203	374	Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross	John Thurso	46,837	59.1	14.86	10.03	40.17	30.30	0.00	4.63	LIB	LIB
205	372	Ochil and South Perthshire	Gordon Banks	70,731	66.0	25.32	20.47	6.47	44.09	0.00	3.65	LAB	NAT
215	363	Edinburgh South	Nigel Griffiths	60,993	70.0	28.70	22.33	22.00	23.09	0.00	3.87	LAB	CON
221	356	Ross Skye and Lochaber	Charles Kennedy	50,507	64.4	14.12	6.79	48.42	24.49	0.00	6.19	LIB	LIB
246	331	Orkney and Shetland	Alistair Carmichael	33,048	53.7	17.22	6.44	41.22	24.81	5.59	4.72	LIB	LIB
264	313	Gordon	Malcolm Bruce	71,925	61.8	22.19	9.32	34.74	32.70	0.00	1.05	LIB	LIB
284	293	Edinburgh West	John Barrett	65,741	68.9	23.90	8.48	39.24	25.38	0.00	2.99	LIB	LIB
296	281	Banff and Buchan	Alex Salmond	65,570	56.8	22.30	5.48	6.46	61.97	0.00	3.79	NAT	NAT
297	280	Moray	Angus Robertson	66,463	58.4	26.43	9.52	9.34	53.05	0.00	1.65	NAT	NAT
299	278	Fife North East	Sir Menzies Campbell	62,057	62.1	23.27	5.81	41.82	24.29	0.00	4.81	LIB	LIB
354	223	Angus	Michael Weir	63,093	60.5	33.52	8.17	8.48	48.49	0.00	1.34	NAT	NAT
357	221	Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk	Michael Moore	71,702	63.3	32.97	7.23	31.56	23.76	0.00	4.48	LIB	CON
357	220	Perth and North Perthshire	Peter Wishart	70,895	64.8	34.34	8.53	7.83	48.29	0.00	1.02	NAT	NAT
358	219	Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine	Sir Robert Smith	65,548	63.5	32.11	5.98	36.02	25.05	0.00	0.84	LIB	LIB

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2005. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.