East Scotland: Majority Sorted Seats

This page shows all the seats in East Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey (prediction: LIB), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Edinburgh North and Leith (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of East Scotland seats with predictions

Lab
Seats
Con
Seats
SeatMP at 2010ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
UKIP
%
NAT
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2010
Win
Pred
Win
26566Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath Gordon Brown73,66562.29.4764.542.703.8717.700.001.72LABLAB
28564Glenrothes Lindsay Roy67,89359.77.3662.342.232.8724.520.000.69LABLAB
126466Dunfermline and West Fife Thomas Docherty73,76966.47.1246.2620.886.0417.920.001.79LABLAB
128464Dundee West James McGovern63,01358.99.5348.473.312.7133.020.002.97LABLAB
137455Linlithgow and East Falkirk Michael Connarty80,90763.612.1849.833.723.0430.090.001.15LABLAB
138454Livingston Graeme Morrice75,92463.110.9748.463.223.5629.980.003.81LABLAB
146446Midlothian David Hamilton61,38763.912.1947.024.964.9926.870.003.97LABLAB
151441Falkirk Eric Joyce81,86962.011.4145.712.994.9734.010.000.92LABLAB
166426Edinburgh East Sheila Gilmore60,94165.411.2943.445.644.6127.495.102.43LABLAB
171421Aberdeen North Frank Doran64,80858.212.7244.425.394.4129.010.004.06LABLAB
190401Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles) Angus MacNeil22,26666.14.5332.882.161.7748.409.590.67NATNAT
227365East Lothian Fiona O'Donnell73,43866.919.9644.594.895.1122.180.003.26LABLAB
242350Edinburgh North and Leith Mark Lazarowicz69,20468.415.3137.4719.624.7516.942.243.67LABLAB
268324Edinburgh South West Alistair Darling66,35968.524.5842.845.234.2818.730.004.34LABLAB
268323Dundee East Stewart Hosie65,47162.015.4233.353.073.5741.690.002.91NATNAT
269323Stirling Anne McGuire66,08070.924.2941.764.214.2922.560.002.89LABLAB
270322Ochil and South Perthshire Gordon Banks75,11567.220.7037.913.314.0731.780.002.23LABLAB
284308Aberdeen South Anne Begg64,03167.221.0836.5414.194.7519.150.004.30LABLAB
302290Edinburgh South Ian Murray59,35473.821.9534.7419.824.7514.950.003.80LABLAB
315276Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross John Thurso47,25760.913.3824.6227.194.7526.460.003.60LIBLIB
330261Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey Danny Alexander72,52864.913.7022.1126.525.9625.990.005.72LIBLIB
356236Edinburgh West Michael Crockart65,16171.323.5527.7421.724.7520.460.001.79LIBLAB
364227Ross Skye and Lochaber Charles Kennedy51,83667.212.5915.1238.436.6422.400.004.82LIBLIB
370221Gordon Malcolm Bruce73,42066.419.0520.1221.844.7529.490.004.76LIBNAT
373218Orkney and Shetland Alistair Carmichael33,08558.510.8710.6647.7811.0617.840.001.79LIBLIB
385206Fife North East Sir Menzies Campbell62,96963.622.1217.1530.147.3221.480.001.79LIBLIB
406185Moray Angus Robertson65,92562.226.3217.094.216.0944.980.001.30NATNAT
440151Angus Michael Weir62,86360.431.1217.223.134.0843.500.000.96NATNAT
444147Perth and North Perthshire Peter Wishart72,14166.930.7616.423.582.9344.100.002.21NATNAT
470121Banff and Buchan Eilidh Whiteford64,30059.830.9913.993.292.6945.390.003.64NATNAT
471121Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine Sir Robert Smith66,11068.430.6313.6324.225.6222.970.002.92LIBCON
53557Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk Michael Moore73,82666.434.1410.2131.165.9616.460.002.06LIBCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2010. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.