East Scotland: Majority Sorted Seats

This page shows all the seats in East Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Banff and Buchan (prediction: SNP), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Orkney and Shetland (prediction: LIB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of East Scotland seats with predictions

Lab
Seats
Con
Seats
SeatMP at 2015ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
UKIP
%
Green
%
SNP
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2015
Win
Pred
Win
181391Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath Roger Mullin75,94169.626.823.02.02.20.245.80.00.2SNPSNP
181391Glenrothes Peter Grant69,78168.224.420.21.70.00.253.30.00.2SNPSNP
191382Edinburgh South Ian Murray65,84674.934.528.73.31.14.427.30.00.6LABCON
192380Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles) Angus MacNeil21,74473.324.418.22.60.00.247.96.60.2SNPSNP
202370Edinburgh East Tommy Sheppard66,17871.226.819.52.51.86.142.80.00.5SNPSNP
202370Dunfermline and West Fife Douglas Chapman78,03771.628.821.33.60.02.343.80.00.2SNPSNP
206366Linlithgow and East Falkirk Martyn Day86,95570.828.920.61.82.50.245.60.00.4SNPSNP
209363Midlothian Owen Thompson67,87571.228.819.82.12.32.744.10.00.2SNPSNP
216356Livingston Hannah Bardell82,37369.927.217.21.92.80.250.40.00.2SNPSNP
227345Dundee West Chris Law66,28767.525.413.32.10.02.955.40.00.9SNPSNP
227345Edinburgh North and Leith Deidre Brock80,97871.633.220.94.11.45.634.50.00.4SNPSNP
231341Aberdeen North Kirsty Blackman67,74564.929.015.54.20.00.250.00.01.1SNPSNP
235337Falkirk John McNally83,38072.429.114.61.82.80.251.30.00.2SNPSNP
235337Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey Drew Hendry77,26874.618.23.629.32.02.543.60.00.9SNPSNP
235337Ross Skye and Lochaber Ian Blackford54,16977.217.12.333.91.82.641.60.00.6SNPSNP
237335Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross Paul Monaghan47,55871.919.84.333.12.70.139.80.00.2SNPSNP
238335East Lothian George Kerevan79,48174.236.420.62.31.92.336.10.00.5SNPCON
246326Orkney and Shetland Alistair Carmichael34,55165.821.23.439.44.40.131.30.00.2LIBLIB
249323Ochil and South Perthshire Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh77,37074.837.618.02.32.10.239.50.00.2SNPSNP
254318Gordon Alex Salmond79,39373.323.12.830.71.90.141.20.00.1SNPSNP
255318Edinburgh South West Joanna Cherry72,17871.537.316.83.31.94.036.50.00.2SNPCON
259313Edinburgh West Michelle Thomson71,74976.526.65.631.11.72.232.50.00.2SNPSNP
267305Dundee East Stewart Hosie66,96072.031.79.52.60.02.053.20.00.9SNPSNP
275298Aberdeen South Callum McCaig68,05671.339.916.34.21.72.235.20.00.5SNPCON
280292Fife North East Stephen Gethins62,00373.028.53.729.30.03.234.50.00.9SNPSNP
281292Stirling Steven Paterson67,23677.539.915.12.40.03.239.10.00.2SNPCON
334238Banff and Buchan Eilidh Whiteford68,60966.538.62.84.60.00.153.80.00.1SNPSNP
335237Angus Michael Weir65,79267.640.34.22.52.82.347.80.00.1SNPSNP
347226Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine Stuart Donaldson73,44575.239.52.219.41.71.735.10.00.4SNPCON
356217Moray Angus Robertson71,68568.743.04.82.53.72.843.00.00.2SNPCON
369203Perth and North Perthshire Peter Wishart72,44774.843.73.93.41.92.244.00.00.8SNPSNP
402171Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk Calum Kerr74,17974.246.82.316.82.21.330.10.00.4SNPCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2015. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.