East Scotland: Majority Sorted Seats

This page shows all the seats in East Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Banff and Buchan (prediction: SNP), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Orkney and Shetland (prediction: LIB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of East Scotland seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2015ElectorateTurn
181391Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath Roger Mullin75,94169.626.823.
181391Glenrothes Peter Grant69,78168.224.420.
191382Edinburgh South Ian Murray65,84674.934.528.
192380Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles) Angus MacNeil21,74473.324.418.
202370Edinburgh East Tommy Sheppard66,17871.226.819.
202370Dunfermline and West Fife Douglas Chapman78,03771.628.821.
206366Linlithgow and East Falkirk Martyn Day86,95570.828.920.
209363Midlothian Owen Thompson67,87571.228.819.
216356Livingston Hannah Bardell82,37369.927.
227345Dundee West Chris Law66,28767.525.413.
227345Edinburgh North and Leith Deidre Brock80,97871.633.
231341Aberdeen North Kirsty Blackman67,74564.929.
235337Falkirk John McNally83,38072.429.
235337Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey Drew Hendry77,26874.618.23.629.32.02.543.60.00.9SNPSNP
235337Ross Skye and Lochaber Ian Blackford54,16977.217.12.333.91.82.641.60.00.6SNPSNP
237335Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross Paul Monaghan47,55871.919.84.333.
238335East Lothian George Kerevan79,48174.236.420.
246326Orkney and Shetland Alistair Carmichael34,55165.821.23.439.
249323Ochil and South Perthshire Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh77,37074.837.618.
254318Gordon Alex Salmond79,39373.323.12.830.
255318Edinburgh South West Joanna Cherry72,17871.537.316.
259313Edinburgh West Michelle Thomson71,74976.526.65.631.
267305Dundee East Stewart Hosie66,96072.
275298Aberdeen South Callum McCaig68,05671.339.916.
280292Fife North East Stephen Gethins62,00373.028.53.729.
281292Stirling Steven Paterson67,23677.539.915.
334238Banff and Buchan Eilidh Whiteford68,60966.538.
335237Angus Michael Weir65,79267.640.
347226Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine Stuart Donaldson73,44575.
356217Moray Angus Robertson71,68568.743.
369203Perth and North Perthshire Peter Wishart72,44774.843.
402171Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk Calum Kerr74,17974.246.82.316.82.21.330.10.00.4SNPCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2015. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.