East Scotland: Majority Sorted Seats

This page shows all the seats in East Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine (prediction: SNP), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Ochil and South Perthshire (prediction: SNP).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of East Scotland seats with predictions

Lab
Seats
Con
Seats
SeatMP at 2015ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
UKIP
%
Green
%
SNP
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2015
Win
Pred
Win
161400Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath Roger Mullin75,94169.618.923.61.62.20.750.30.02.8SNPSNP
164397Glenrothes Peter Grant69,78168.216.620.81.40.00.757.80.02.8SNPSNP
175386Edinburgh South Ian Murray65,84674.926.829.32.71.14.931.80.03.3LABSNP
175386Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles) Angus MacNeil21,74473.316.718.82.10.00.752.46.62.9SNPSNP
180381Edinburgh East Tommy Sheppard66,17871.219.120.12.01.86.747.30.03.1SNPSNP
181380Dunfermline and West Fife Douglas Chapman78,03771.621.121.92.90.02.848.30.02.9SNPSNP
185376Linlithgow and East Falkirk Martyn Day86,95570.821.021.21.52.50.750.10.03.0SNPSNP
187374Midlothian Owen Thompson67,87571.221.020.41.72.23.248.60.02.9SNPSNP
189372Livingston Hannah Bardell82,37369.919.417.81.52.80.754.90.02.9SNPSNP
199362Dundee West Chris Law66,28767.517.613.91.70.03.459.90.03.5SNPSNP
203358Edinburgh North and Leith Deidre Brock80,97871.625.621.53.31.46.139.00.03.2SNPSNP
210351Aberdeen North Kirsty Blackman67,74564.921.516.13.40.00.754.50.03.9SNPSNP
214347Falkirk John McNally83,38072.421.215.31.52.80.755.70.02.9SNPSNP
216345East Lothian George Kerevan79,48174.228.621.21.91.82.840.60.03.1SNPSNP
229332Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey Drew Hendry77,26874.614.13.825.72.03.048.10.03.3SNPSNP
233328Ross Skye and Lochaber Ian Blackford54,16977.213.52.530.31.83.146.10.02.7SNPSNP
233328Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross Paul Monaghan47,55871.915.54.629.52.70.744.30.02.8SNPSNP
234327Ochil and South Perthshire Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh77,37074.829.818.61.82.10.744.00.02.9SNPSNP
237324Edinburgh South West Joanna Cherry72,17871.529.617.42.71.94.541.00.02.9SNPSNP
239322Orkney and Shetland Alistair Carmichael34,55165.817.13.635.84.40.635.80.02.6LIBLIB
242319Dundee East Stewart Hosie66,96072.024.010.12.10.02.557.70.03.5SNPSNP
246315Aberdeen South Callum McCaig68,05671.332.416.93.31.72.739.70.03.3SNPSNP
248313Edinburgh West Michelle Thomson71,74976.521.96.027.61.72.837.00.03.0SNPSNP
249312Gordon Alex Salmond79,39373.319.33.027.21.90.645.70.02.4SNPSNP
249312Stirling Steven Paterson67,23677.532.115.71.90.03.843.60.02.8SNPSNP
269292Fife North East Stephen Gethins62,00373.024.43.925.80.03.738.90.03.3SNPSNP
317244Angus Michael Weir65,79267.634.24.52.02.82.652.30.01.7SNPSNP
319242Banff and Buchan Eilidh Whiteford68,60966.533.33.03.70.00.358.30.01.4SNPSNP
324237Moray Angus Robertson71,68568.736.85.12.03.63.247.50.01.8SNPSNP
335226Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine Stuart Donaldson73,44575.236.02.315.81.72.139.60.02.5SNPSNP
335226Perth and North Perthshire Peter Wishart72,44774.837.94.12.71.92.548.50.02.3SNPSNP
396166Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk Calum Kerr74,17974.243.02.513.52.21.734.60.02.5SNPCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2015. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.