East Scotland: Majority Sorted Seats

This page shows all the seats in East Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey (prediction: LIB), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Edinburgh North and Leith (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of East Scotland seats with predictions

Lab Seats	Con Seats	Seat	MP at 2010	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	UKIP %	NAT %	MIN %	OTH %	2010 Win	Pred Win
26	566	Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath	Gordon Brown	73,665	62.2	9.47	64.54	2.70	3.87	17.70	0.00	1.72	LAB	LAB
28	564	Glenrothes	Lindsay Roy	67,893	59.7	7.36	62.34	2.23	2.87	24.52	0.00	0.69	LAB	LAB
126	466	Dunfermline and West Fife	Thomas Docherty	73,769	66.4	7.12	46.26	20.88	6.04	17.92	0.00	1.79	LAB	LAB
128	464	Dundee West	James McGovern	63,013	58.9	9.53	48.47	3.31	2.71	33.02	0.00	2.97	LAB	LAB
137	455	Linlithgow and East Falkirk	Michael Connarty	80,907	63.6	12.18	49.83	3.72	3.04	30.09	0.00	1.15	LAB	LAB
138	454	Livingston	Graeme Morrice	75,924	63.1	10.97	48.46	3.22	3.56	29.98	0.00	3.81	LAB	LAB
146	446	Midlothian	David Hamilton	61,387	63.9	12.19	47.02	4.96	4.99	26.87	0.00	3.97	LAB	LAB
151	441	Falkirk	Eric Joyce	81,869	62.0	11.41	45.71	2.99	4.97	34.01	0.00	0.92	LAB	LAB
166	426	Edinburgh East	Sheila Gilmore	60,941	65.4	11.29	43.44	5.64	4.61	27.49	5.10	2.43	LAB	LAB
171	421	Aberdeen North	Frank Doran	64,808	58.2	12.72	44.42	5.39	4.41	29.01	0.00	4.06	LAB	LAB
190	401	Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles)	Angus MacNeil	22,266	66.1	4.53	32.88	2.16	1.77	48.40	9.59	0.67	NAT	NAT
227	365	East Lothian	Fiona O'Donnell	73,438	66.9	19.96	44.59	4.89	5.11	22.18	0.00	3.26	LAB	LAB
242	350	Edinburgh North and Leith	Mark Lazarowicz	69,204	68.4	15.31	37.47	19.62	4.75	16.94	2.24	3.67	LAB	LAB
268	324	Edinburgh South West	Alistair Darling	66,359	68.5	24.58	42.84	5.23	4.28	18.73	0.00	4.34	LAB	LAB
268	323	Dundee East	Stewart Hosie	65,471	62.0	15.42	33.35	3.07	3.57	41.69	0.00	2.91	NAT	NAT
269	323	Stirling	Anne McGuire	66,080	70.9	24.29	41.76	4.21	4.29	22.56	0.00	2.89	LAB	LAB
270	322	Ochil and South Perthshire	Gordon Banks	75,115	67.2	20.70	37.91	3.31	4.07	31.78	0.00	2.23	LAB	LAB
284	308	Aberdeen South	Anne Begg	64,031	67.2	21.08	36.54	14.19	4.75	19.15	0.00	4.30	LAB	LAB
302	290	Edinburgh South	Ian Murray	59,354	73.8	21.95	34.74	19.82	4.75	14.95	0.00	3.80	LAB	LAB
315	276	Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross	John Thurso	47,257	60.9	13.38	24.62	27.19	4.75	26.46	0.00	3.60	LIB	LIB
330	261	Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey	Danny Alexander	72,528	64.9	13.70	22.11	26.52	5.96	25.99	0.00	5.72	LIB	LIB
356	236	Edinburgh West	Michael Crockart	65,161	71.3	23.55	27.74	21.72	4.75	20.46	0.00	1.79	LIB	LAB
364	227	Ross Skye and Lochaber	Charles Kennedy	51,836	67.2	12.59	15.12	38.43	6.64	22.40	0.00	4.82	LIB	LIB
370	221	Gordon	Malcolm Bruce	73,420	66.4	19.05	20.12	21.84	4.75	29.49	0.00	4.76	LIB	NAT
373	218	Orkney and Shetland	Alistair Carmichael	33,085	58.5	10.87	10.66	47.78	11.06	17.84	0.00	1.79	LIB	LIB
385	206	Fife North East	Sir Menzies Campbell	62,969	63.6	22.12	17.15	30.14	7.32	21.48	0.00	1.79	LIB	LIB
406	185	Moray	Angus Robertson	65,925	62.2	26.32	17.09	4.21	6.09	44.98	0.00	1.30	NAT	NAT
440	151	Angus	Michael Weir	62,863	60.4	31.12	17.22	3.13	4.08	43.50	0.00	0.96	NAT	NAT
444	147	Perth and North Perthshire	Peter Wishart	72,141	66.9	30.76	16.42	3.58	2.93	44.10	0.00	2.21	NAT	NAT
470	121	Banff and Buchan	Eilidh Whiteford	64,300	59.8	30.99	13.99	3.29	2.69	45.39	0.00	3.64	NAT	NAT
471	121	Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine	Sir Robert Smith	66,110	68.4	30.63	13.63	24.22	5.62	22.97	0.00	2.92	LIB	CON
535	57	Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk	Michael Moore	73,826	66.4	34.14	10.21	31.16	5.96	16.46	0.00	2.06	LIB	CON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2010. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.