East Scotland: Majority Sorted Seats

This page shows all the seats in East Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Orkney and Shetland (prediction: LIB), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Aberdeen South (prediction: NAT).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of East Scotland seats with predictions

Lab Seats	Con Seats	Seat	MP at 2010	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	NAT %	MIN %	OTH %	2010 Win	Pred Win
31	561	Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath	Gordon Brown	73,665	62.2	8.81	57.27	1.37	27.97	0.00	4.58	LAB	LAB
33	559	Glenrothes	Lindsay Roy	67,893	59.7	6.84	55.07	1.12	34.08	0.00	2.89	LAB	LAB
109	483	Dunfermline and West Fife	Thomas Docherty	73,769	66.4	6.40	38.98	18.01	32.11	0.00	4.50	LAB	LAB
109	482	Dundee West	James McGovern	63,013	58.9	8.84	41.20	1.67	44.08	0.00	4.21	LAB	NAT
122	470	Linlithgow and East Falkirk	Michael Connarty	80,907	63.6	11.33	42.55	1.88	41.80	0.00	2.44	LAB	LAB
124	468	Livingston	Graeme Morrice	75,924	63.1	10.21	41.19	1.63	40.99	0.00	5.99	LAB	LAB
137	454	Midlothian	David Hamilton	61,387	63.9	11.26	39.74	2.50	40.21	0.00	6.29	LAB	NAT
143	448	Falkirk	Eric Joyce	81,869	62.0	10.64	38.43	1.51	44.73	0.00	4.69	LAB	NAT
148	443	Edinburgh East	Sheila Gilmore	60,941	65.4	10.36	36.16	2.85	41.66	5.10	3.86	LAB	NAT
148	443	Aberdeen North	Frank Doran	64,808	58.2	11.73	37.15	2.72	42.92	0.00	5.48	LAB	NAT
170	421	Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles)	Angus MacNeil	22,266	66.1	4.17	25.60	1.09	57.74	9.59	1.80	NAT	NAT
186	406	East Lothian	Fiona O'Donnell	73,438	66.9	18.63	37.32	2.47	35.77	0.00	5.81	LAB	LAB
209	382	Edinburgh North and Leith	Mark Lazarowicz	69,204	68.4	14.17	30.19	16.75	31.50	2.24	5.14	LAB	NAT
239	353	Edinburgh South West	Alistair Darling	66,359	68.5	23.22	35.56	2.64	32.78	0.00	5.80	LAB	LAB
241	350	Dundee East	Stewart Hosie	65,471	62.0	14.44	26.08	1.55	52.70	0.00	5.24	NAT	NAT
243	348	Stirling	Anne McGuire	66,080	70.9	22.99	34.48	2.13	35.28	0.00	5.12	LAB	NAT
247	344	Ochil and South Perthshire	Gordon Banks	75,115	67.2	19.45	30.64	1.67	43.33	0.00	4.91	LAB	NAT
256	335	Aberdeen South	Anne Begg	64,031	67.2	19.68	29.26	11.32	33.94	0.00	5.80	LAB	NAT
267	324	Edinburgh South	Ian Murray	59,354	73.8	20.54	27.47	16.94	29.74	0.00	5.31	LAB	NAT
281	310	Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross	John Thurso	47,257	60.9	12.34	17.34	24.32	40.94	0.00	5.06	LIB	NAT
300	291	Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey	Danny Alexander	72,528	64.9	12.64	14.83	23.65	40.48	0.00	8.40	LIB	NAT
322	269	Edinburgh West	Michael Crockart	65,161	71.3	22.14	20.46	18.85	35.25	0.00	3.29	LIB	NAT
323	268	Ross Skye and Lochaber	Charles Kennedy	51,836	67.2	11.59	9.62	35.56	35.29	0.00	7.93	LIB	LIB
330	261	Orkney and Shetland	Alistair Carmichael	33,085	58.5	9.96	6.78	44.90	29.25	0.00	9.11	LIB	LIB
342	249	Gordon	Malcolm Bruce	73,420	66.4	17.71	12.84	18.96	44.22	0.00	6.26	LIB	NAT
359	232	Fife North East	Sir Menzies Campbell	62,969	63.6	20.71	10.91	27.27	35.37	0.00	5.74	LIB	NAT
376	215	Moray	Angus Robertson	65,925	62.2	25.02	10.88	2.13	56.78	0.00	5.20	NAT	NAT
403	188	Angus	Michael Weir	62,863	60.4	29.88	10.96	1.58	53.92	0.00	3.66	NAT	NAT
403	188	Perth and North Perthshire	Peter Wishart	72,141	66.9	29.50	10.45	1.81	54.87	0.00	3.38	NAT	NAT
413	178	Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine	Sir Robert Smith	66,110	68.4	29.23	8.67	21.34	35.75	0.00	5.01	LIB	NAT
415	176	Banff and Buchan	Eilidh Whiteford	64,300	59.8	29.75	8.91	1.66	55.01	0.00	4.68	NAT	NAT
475	117	Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk	Michael Moore	73,826	66.4	32.74	6.50	28.28	28.16	0.00	4.32	LIB	CON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2010. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.