East Scotland: Majority Sorted Seats

This page shows all the seats in East Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine (prediction: SNP), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Ochil and South Perthshire (prediction: SNP).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of East Scotland seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2015ElectorateTurn
161400Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath Roger Mullin75,94169.618.923.
164397Glenrothes Peter Grant69,78168.216.620.
175386Edinburgh South Ian Murray65,84674.926.829.
175386Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles) Angus MacNeil21,74473.316.718.
180381Edinburgh East Tommy Sheppard66,17871.
181380Dunfermline and West Fife Douglas Chapman78,03771.621.
185376Linlithgow and East Falkirk Martyn Day86,95570.821.
187374Midlothian Owen Thompson67,87571.
189372Livingston Hannah Bardell82,37369.919.417.
199362Dundee West Chris Law66,28767.517.613.
203358Edinburgh North and Leith Deidre Brock80,97871.625.621.
210351Aberdeen North Kirsty Blackman67,74564.921.516.
214347Falkirk John McNally83,38072.421.
216345East Lothian George Kerevan79,48174.228.621.
229332Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey Drew Hendry77,26874.614.13.825.
233328Ross Skye and Lochaber Ian Blackford54,16977.213.52.530.
233328Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross Paul Monaghan47,55871.915.54.629.52.70.744.30.02.8SNPSNP
234327Ochil and South Perthshire Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh77,37074.829.818.
237324Edinburgh South West Joanna Cherry72,17871.529.617.
239322Orkney and Shetland Alistair Carmichael34,55165.817.13.635.84.40.635.80.02.6LIBLIB
242319Dundee East Stewart Hosie66,96072.
246315Aberdeen South Callum McCaig68,05671.332.416.
248313Edinburgh West Michelle Thomson71,74976.521.
249312Gordon Alex Salmond79,39373.319.
249312Stirling Steven Paterson67,23677.532.
269292Fife North East Stephen Gethins62,00373.024.43.925.80.03.738.90.03.3SNPSNP
317244Angus Michael Weir65,79267.634.
319242Banff and Buchan Eilidh Whiteford68,60966.533.
324237Moray Angus Robertson71,68568.736.
335226Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine Stuart Donaldson73,44575.236.02.315.
335226Perth and North Perthshire Peter Wishart72,44774.837.
396166Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk Calum Kerr74,17974.243.02.513.52.21.734.60.02.5SNPCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2015. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.