West Scotland: Majority Sorted Seats

This page shows all the seats in West Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Glasgow North East, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Argyll and Bute (prediction: NAT), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Renfrewshire East (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of West Scotland seats with predictions

Lab Seats	Con Seats	Seat	MP at 2010	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	UKIP %	NAT %	MIN %	OTH %	2010 Win	Pred Win
6	586	Glasgow North East	Willie Bain	59,859	49.1	5.48	68.35	2.23	1.82	16.94	2.71	2.46	LAB	LAB
14	578	Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill	Tom Clarke	70,067	59.4	8.26	66.60	2.45	2.01	19.93	0.00	0.76	LAB	LAB
18	574	Glasgow East	Margaret Curran	61,516	52.3	4.61	61.55	1.46	1.84	26.57	2.10	1.86	LAB	LAB
23	569	Glasgow South West	Ian Davidson	58,182	54.6	6.72	62.50	2.62	2.14	19.63	0.00	6.38	LAB	LAB
34	558	Dunbartonshire West	Gemma Doyle	66,085	64.0	7.82	61.29	2.36	3.54	23.06	0.00	1.92	LAB	LAB
42	550	Motherwell and Wishaw	Frank Roy	66,918	58.5	9.53	61.12	2.85	2.33	21.74	0.00	2.44	LAB	LAB
43	549	Rutherglen and Hamilton West	Tom Greatrex	76,408	61.5	9.88	60.81	3.48	4.28	20.47	0.00	1.07	LAB	LAB
47	545	Paisley and Renfrewshire South	Douglas Alexander	61,197	65.4	10.12	59.61	2.77	2.26	21.54	0.00	3.70	LAB	LAB
48	544	Airdrie and Shotts	Pamela Nash	62,364	57.5	8.89	58.16	2.35	1.92	26.49	0.00	2.20	LAB	LAB
53	539	Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East	Gregg McClymont	64,037	64.3	8.45	57.23	2.77	2.26	27.28	0.00	2.01	LAB	LAB
82	510	Glasgow Central	Anas Sarwar	60,062	50.9	7.36	52.03	4.75	4.69	23.49	2.62	5.07	LAB	LAB
87	505	Glasgow North West	John Robertson	60,968	58.4	10.23	54.06	4.58	3.75	21.02	0.00	6.36	LAB	LAB
90	502	Inverclyde	David Cairns	59,209	63.4	12.25	55.97	3.87	4.32	22.40	0.00	1.19	LAB	LAB
118	474	Glasgow South	Tom Harris	65,029	61.7	11.67	51.72	3.43	2.80	24.46	0.00	5.92	LAB	LAB
124	468	Paisley and Renfrewshire North	James Sheridan	63,704	68.6	14.79	54.03	3.05	2.50	22.90	0.00	2.73	LAB	LAB
132	460	East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow	Michael McCann	76,534	66.6	13.16	51.51	2.88	2.35	26.65	0.00	3.44	LAB	LAB
134	458	Kilmarnock and Loudoun	Cathy Jamieson	74,131	62.8	14.29	52.54	2.13	1.74	28.63	0.00	0.66	LAB	LAB
139	453	Glasgow North	Ann McKechin	51,416	57.6	7.42	44.52	17.15	4.75	19.21	0.00	6.96	LAB	LAB
147	445	Lanark and Hamilton East	Jimmy Hood	74,773	62.3	15.20	49.96	3.27	4.00	25.12	0.00	2.45	LAB	LAB
173	419	Ayrshire North and Arran	Katy Clark	74,953	61.5	15.82	47.41	2.91	2.38	29.60	0.00	1.87	LAB	LAB
201	391	Ayrshire Central	Brian Donohoe	68,352	64.2	20.58	47.71	3.46	2.83	23.39	0.00	2.03	LAB	LAB
246	346	Ayr Carrick and Cumnock	Sandra Osborne	73,320	62.6	25.71	47.14	2.70	2.20	21.42	0.00	0.83	LAB	LAB
255	337	Renfrewshire East	Jim Murphy	66,249	77.3	30.58	50.78	2.68	2.91	12.22	0.00	0.83	LAB	LAB
267	325	Dunbartonshire East	Jo Swinson	63,795	75.2	15.86	34.14	24.49	5.88	17.83	0.00	1.79	LIB	LAB
295	297	Dumfries and Galloway	Russell Brown	74,581	70.0	31.79	45.91	2.56	3.43	15.52	0.00	0.79	LAB	LAB
375	216	Argyll and Bute	Alan Reid	67,165	67.3	24.39	22.73	17.42	4.75	26.23	0.00	4.48	LIB	NAT
407	185	Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale	David Mundell	66,627	68.9	38.40	28.91	5.74	6.08	17.99	0.00	2.88	CON	CON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2010. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.