West Scotland: Majority Sorted Seats

This page shows all the seats in West Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Paisley and Renfrewshire South, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Ayr Carrick and Cumnock (prediction: SNP).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of West Scotland seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2015ElectorateTurn
133428Paisley and Renfrewshire South Mhairi Black61,28175.416.628.
139422Glasgow North East Anne McLaughlin66,67856.813.323.
144417Glasgow South West Christopher Stephens66,20961.813.823.
145416Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill Philip Boswell73,81368.715.
145416Rutherglen and Hamilton West Margaret Ferrier82,70169.716.525.
145416Glasgow Central Alison Thewliss70,94555.414.923.
147414Glasgow East Natalie McGarry70,37860.314.822.
147414Airdrie and Shotts Neil Gray66,71566.416.624.
156405Dunbartonshire West Martin Docherty69,19373.915.821.
158403Motherwell and Wishaw Marion Fellows70,26968.616.522.
168393Glasgow North West Carol Monaghan68,41864.117.521.
170391Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East Stuart McDonald67,00973.716.820.
176385Paisley and Renfrewshire North Gavin Newlands66,20676.
178383Inverclyde Ronnie Cowan59,35075.
179382Glasgow South Stewart McDonald74,05165.918.719.
179382Glasgow North Patrick Grady58,87562.717.
187374Kilmarnock and Loudoun Alan Brown75,23371.621.320.
192369East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow Lisa Cameron83,07172.920.718.
204357Lanark and Hamilton East Angela Crawley78,84670.124.920.
213348Ayrshire North and Arran Patricia Gibson75,77271.123.718.
215346Renfrewshire East Kirsten Oswald69,98281.130.924.
226335Ayrshire Central Philippa Whitford69,98272.626.
234327Ayr Carrick and Cumnock Corri Wilson72,98571.528.817.
237324Dunbartonshire East John Nicolson66,96681.918.46.330.
260301Argyll and Bute Brendan O'Hara68,87575.324.15.322.42.30.742.30.02.9SNPSNP
290271Dumfries and Galloway Richard Arkless75,24975.238.914.
384178Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale David Mundell68,48376.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2015. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.