West Scotland: Majority Sorted Seats

This page shows all the seats in West Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Paisley and Renfrewshire South, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Ayrshire Central (prediction: SNP).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of West Scotland seats with predictions

Lab
Seats
Con
Seats
SeatMP at 2015ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
UKIP
%
Green
%
SNP
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2015
Win
Pred
Win
145427Paisley and Renfrewshire South Mhairi Black61,28175.424.428.22.00.00.244.50.00.8SNPSNP
155417Glasgow North East Anne McLaughlin66,67856.821.323.30.70.01.851.60.60.8SNPSNP
161411Glasgow South West Christopher Stephens66,20961.821.822.40.92.21.450.70.00.6SNPSNP
162410Rutherglen and Hamilton West Margaret Ferrier82,70169.724.424.81.62.10.246.10.00.8SNPSNP
162410Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill Philip Boswell73,81368.723.123.51.01.90.250.10.00.2SNPSNP
164408Glasgow Central Alison Thewliss70,94555.422.822.61.41.94.146.10.01.1SNPSNP
168404Airdrie and Shotts Neil Gray66,71566.424.523.71.42.30.247.50.00.5SNPSNP
168404Glasgow East Natalie McGarry70,37860.322.821.90.72.41.150.40.00.7SNPSNP
177395Dunbartonshire West Martin Docherty69,19373.923.720.91.40.00.252.60.01.2SNPSNP
177395Motherwell and Wishaw Marion Fellows70,26968.624.521.51.12.50.250.10.00.2SNPSNP
184388Glasgow North West Carol Monaghan68,41864.125.220.52.50.02.848.00.01.0SNPSNP
186386Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East Stuart McDonald67,00973.724.619.62.00.00.253.40.00.2SNPSNP
197375Paisley and Renfrewshire North Gavin Newlands66,20676.229.022.31.90.01.644.30.01.0SNPSNP
201371Inverclyde Ronnie Cowan59,35075.226.819.92.21.50.248.60.00.7SNPSNP
201371Glasgow South Stewart McDonald74,05165.926.519.31.90.03.148.40.00.8SNPSNP
202370Glasgow North Patrick Grady58,87562.724.717.52.51.26.446.60.01.1SNPSNP
211361Kilmarnock and Loudoun Alan Brown75,23371.629.219.91.30.00.249.20.00.2SNPSNP
220352East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow Lisa Cameron83,07172.928.617.91.51.90.249.20.00.7SNPSNP
227345Lanark and Hamilton East Angela Crawley78,84670.132.820.12.02.40.242.30.00.2SNPSNP
233339Ayrshire North and Arran Patricia Gibson75,77271.131.617.51.52.20.246.70.00.2SNPSNP
237336Renfrewshire East Kirsten Oswald69,98281.138.823.61.71.50.234.10.00.2SNPCON
246326Dunbartonshire East John Nicolson66,96681.923.25.934.31.01.633.80.00.2SNPLIB
246326Ayrshire Central Philippa Whitford69,98272.634.016.01.60.01.446.70.00.2SNPSNP
251321Ayr Carrick and Cumnock Corri Wilson72,98571.536.716.81.52.30.242.40.00.2SNPSNP
276296Argyll and Bute Brendan O'Hara68,87575.328.75.025.92.30.137.80.00.2SNPSNP
321252Dumfries and Galloway Richard Arkless75,24975.246.714.31.52.10.234.90.00.2SNPCON
428145Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale David Mundell68,48376.154.17.12.42.61.831.80.00.2CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2015. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.