West Scotland: Majority Sorted Seats

This page shows all the seats in West Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Dumfries and Galloway (prediction: CON).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of West Scotland seats with predictions

Lab Seats	Con Seats	Seat	MP at 2005	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	NAT %	MIN %	OTH %	2005 Win	Pred Win
3	575	Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill	Tom Clarke	67,385	56.9	10.93	53.59	5.84	27.17	0.00	2.47	LAB	LAB
5	573	Glasgow South West	Ian Davidson	62,005	50.0	9.40	49.32	5.64	28.72	5.38	1.55	LAB	LAB
6	572	Glasgow North East	Michael Martin	62,042	45.8	2.59	42.43	0.00	27.18	14.20	13.60	LAB	LAB
7	571	Glasgow East	David Marshall	64,130	48.2	10.59	49.79	5.76	30.61	0.00	3.25	LAB	LAB
12	566	Airdrie and Shotts	Dr John Reid	61,955	53.5	13.50	48.12	5.56	29.93	0.00	2.89	LAB	LAB
13	565	Motherwell and Wishaw	Frank Roy	66,987	55.4	13.00	46.58	5.84	30.19	0.00	4.39	LAB	LAB
17	561	Rutherglen and Hamilton West	Tommy McAvoy	73,998	58.5	12.78	44.71	8.92	30.15	0.00	3.44	LAB	LAB
18	560	Dunbartonshire West	John McFall	67,805	61.3	10.45	41.04	7.01	36.50	0.00	5.00	LAB	LAB
21	557	Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East	Rosemary McKenna	64,748	60.4	10.99	40.91	7.23	37.08	0.00	3.79	LAB	LAB
25	553	Paisley and Renfrewshire South	Douglas Alexander	60,181	62.9	12.75	41.68	8.56	33.51	0.00	3.50	LAB	LAB
31	547	Glasgow Central	Mohammad Sarwar	64,053	43.8	10.69	37.32	8.64	31.07	4.89	7.39	LAB	LAB
37	541	Inverclyde	David Cairns	59,291	60.9	14.46	39.85	8.24	35.14	0.00	2.30	LAB	LAB
43	535	Glasgow North West	John Robertson	61,880	55.0	14.19	38.28	9.49	30.71	0.00	7.33	LAB	LAB
46	532	East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow	Adam Ingram	75,132	63.5	14.27	37.84	8.05	33.59	0.00	6.25	LAB	LAB
54	523	Kilmarnock and Loudoun	Des Browne	72,851	60.9	14.92	36.37	5.41	40.89	0.00	2.41	LAB	NAT
64	514	Glasgow South	Tom Harris	68,837	55.8	17.15	36.34	9.26	29.46	0.00	7.79	LAB	LAB
72	506	Lanark and Hamilton East	Jimmy Hood	73,736	59.1	17.25	35.15	9.06	34.18	0.00	4.36	LAB	LAB
81	496	Paisley and Renfrewshire North	James Sheridan	63,076	64.8	18.01	34.84	8.87	35.00	0.00	3.28	LAB	NAT
88	489	Glasgow North	Ann McKechin	55,419	50.4	13.33	28.51	17.16	29.84	7.65	3.51	LAB	NAT
112	465	Ayrshire North and Arran	Katy Clark	73,737	59.9	22.56	33.03	7.98	33.38	0.00	3.04	LAB	NAT
119	459	Ayrshire Central	Brian Donohoe	68,643	62.5	26.28	35.54	7.80	26.89	0.00	3.50	LAB	LAB
128	450	Ayr Carrick and Cumnock	Sandra Osborne	73,448	61.3	27.11	34.46	6.84	27.70	0.00	3.89	LAB	LAB
159	418	Dunbartonshire East	Jo Swinson	64,763	72.1	21.07	22.22	31.52	22.64	0.00	2.55	LIB	LIB
176	402	Renfrewshire East	Jim Murphy	65,714	72.1	34.22	33.02	8.87	22.87	0.00	1.02	LAB	CON
232	346	Dumfries and Galloway	Russell Brown	74,273	68.5	38.67	30.22	4.07	24.29	0.00	2.75	LAB	CON
294	283	Argyll and Bute	Alan Reid	67,325	64.2	28.04	11.54	26.23	32.32	0.00	1.87	LIB	NAT
315	263	Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale	David Mundell	66,045	67.6	40.74	21.39	9.99	25.92	0.00	1.96	CON	CON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2005. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.