West Scotland: Majority Sorted Seats

This page shows all the seats in West Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Paisley and Renfrewshire South, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Ayr Carrick and Cumnock (prediction: SNP).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of West Scotland seats with predictions

Lab
Seats
Con
Seats
SeatMP at 2015ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
UKIP
%
Green
%
SNP
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2015
Win
Pred
Win
133428Paisley and Renfrewshire South Mhairi Black61,28175.416.628.81.60.00.749.00.03.4SNPSNP
139422Glasgow North East Anne McLaughlin66,67856.813.323.90.60.02.356.10.63.3SNPSNP
144417Glasgow South West Christopher Stephens66,20961.813.823.00.72.21.955.20.03.2SNPSNP
145416Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill Philip Boswell73,81368.715.124.10.81.90.754.60.02.8SNPSNP
145416Rutherglen and Hamilton West Margaret Ferrier82,70169.716.525.41.32.10.750.60.03.4SNPSNP
145416Glasgow Central Alison Thewliss70,94555.414.923.21.11.94.650.60.03.7SNPSNP
147414Glasgow East Natalie McGarry70,37860.314.822.50.52.41.654.90.03.3SNPSNP
147414Airdrie and Shotts Neil Gray66,71566.416.624.31.12.30.752.00.03.1SNPSNP
156405Dunbartonshire West Martin Docherty69,19373.915.821.51.20.00.757.10.03.8SNPSNP
158403Motherwell and Wishaw Marion Fellows70,26968.616.522.10.92.50.754.60.02.8SNPSNP
168393Glasgow North West Carol Monaghan68,41864.117.521.12.00.03.352.50.03.6SNPSNP
170391Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East Stuart McDonald67,00973.716.820.21.60.00.757.90.02.8SNPSNP
176385Paisley and Renfrewshire North Gavin Newlands66,20676.221.222.91.50.02.148.80.03.6SNPSNP
178383Inverclyde Ronnie Cowan59,35075.219.020.51.81.50.753.10.03.4SNPSNP
179382Glasgow South Stewart McDonald74,05165.918.719.91.50.03.652.90.03.4SNPSNP
179382Glasgow North Patrick Grady58,87562.717.018.12.01.26.951.10.03.7SNPSNP
187374Kilmarnock and Loudoun Alan Brown75,23371.621.320.51.10.00.753.70.02.8SNPSNP
192369East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow Lisa Cameron83,07172.920.718.51.21.90.753.70.03.3SNPSNP
204357Lanark and Hamilton East Angela Crawley78,84670.124.920.71.62.40.746.80.02.9SNPSNP
213348Ayrshire North and Arran Patricia Gibson75,77271.123.718.11.22.20.751.20.02.8SNPSNP
215346Renfrewshire East Kirsten Oswald69,98281.130.924.21.41.40.738.60.02.8SNPSNP
226335Ayrshire Central Philippa Whitford69,98272.626.216.61.30.01.951.20.02.8SNPSNP
234327Ayr Carrick and Cumnock Corri Wilson72,98571.528.817.41.22.30.746.80.02.8SNPSNP
237324Dunbartonshire East John Nicolson66,96681.918.46.330.81.02.238.30.03.1SNPSNP
260301Argyll and Bute Brendan O'Hara68,87575.324.15.322.42.30.742.30.02.9SNPSNP
290271Dumfries and Galloway Richard Arkless75,24975.238.914.91.22.10.739.40.02.8SNPSNP
384178Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale David Mundell68,48376.147.27.51.92.62.236.30.02.3CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2015. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.