West Scotland: Majority Sorted Seats

This page shows all the seats in West Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Dumfries and Galloway (prediction: CON).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of West Scotland seats with predictions

Lab
Seats
Con
Seats
SeatMP at 2005ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
NAT
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2005
Win
Pred
Win
3575Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill Tom Clarke67,38556.910.9353.595.8427.170.002.47LABLAB
5573Glasgow South West Ian Davidson62,00550.09.4049.325.6428.725.381.55LABLAB
6572Glasgow North East Michael Martin62,04245.82.5942.430.0027.1814.2013.60LABLAB
7571Glasgow East David Marshall64,13048.210.5949.795.7630.610.003.25LABLAB
12566Airdrie and Shotts Dr John Reid61,95553.513.5048.125.5629.930.002.89LABLAB
13565Motherwell and Wishaw Frank Roy66,98755.413.0046.585.8430.190.004.39LABLAB
17561Rutherglen and Hamilton West Tommy McAvoy73,99858.512.7844.718.9230.150.003.44LABLAB
18560Dunbartonshire West John McFall67,80561.310.4541.047.0136.500.005.00LABLAB
21557Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East Rosemary McKenna64,74860.410.9940.917.2337.080.003.79LABLAB
25553Paisley and Renfrewshire South Douglas Alexander60,18162.912.7541.688.5633.510.003.50LABLAB
31547Glasgow Central Mohammad Sarwar64,05343.810.6937.328.6431.074.897.39LABLAB
37541Inverclyde David Cairns59,29160.914.4639.858.2435.140.002.30LABLAB
43535Glasgow North West John Robertson61,88055.014.1938.289.4930.710.007.33LABLAB
46532East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow Adam Ingram75,13263.514.2737.848.0533.590.006.25LABLAB
54523Kilmarnock and Loudoun Des Browne72,85160.914.9236.375.4140.890.002.41LABNAT
64514Glasgow South Tom Harris68,83755.817.1536.349.2629.460.007.79LABLAB
72506Lanark and Hamilton East Jimmy Hood73,73659.117.2535.159.0634.180.004.36LABLAB
81496Paisley and Renfrewshire North James Sheridan63,07664.818.0134.848.8735.000.003.28LABNAT
88489Glasgow North Ann McKechin55,41950.413.3328.5117.1629.847.653.51LABNAT
112465Ayrshire North and Arran Katy Clark73,73759.922.5633.037.9833.380.003.04LABNAT
119459Ayrshire Central Brian Donohoe68,64362.526.2835.547.8026.890.003.50LABLAB
128450Ayr Carrick and Cumnock Sandra Osborne73,44861.327.1134.466.8427.700.003.89LABLAB
159418Dunbartonshire East Jo Swinson64,76372.121.0722.2231.5222.640.002.55LIBLIB
176402Renfrewshire East Jim Murphy65,71472.134.2233.028.8722.870.001.02LABCON
232346Dumfries and Galloway Russell Brown74,27368.538.6730.224.0724.290.002.75LABCON
294283Argyll and Bute Alan Reid67,32564.228.0411.5426.2332.320.001.87LIBNAT
315263Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale David Mundell66,04567.640.7421.399.9925.920.001.96CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2005. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.