West Scotland: Majority Sorted Seats

This page shows all the seats in West Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Paisley and Renfrewshire South, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Ayrshire Central (prediction: SNP).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of West Scotland seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2015ElectorateTurn
145427Paisley and Renfrewshire South Mhairi Black61,28175.424.428.
155417Glasgow North East Anne McLaughlin66,67856.821.323.
161411Glasgow South West Christopher Stephens66,20961.821.822.
162410Rutherglen and Hamilton West Margaret Ferrier82,70169.724.424.
162410Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill Philip Boswell73,81368.723.
164408Glasgow Central Alison Thewliss70,94555.422.822.
168404Airdrie and Shotts Neil Gray66,71566.424.523.
168404Glasgow East Natalie McGarry70,37860.322.821.
177395Dunbartonshire West Martin Docherty69,19373.923.720.
177395Motherwell and Wishaw Marion Fellows70,26968.624.521.
184388Glasgow North West Carol Monaghan68,41864.
186386Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East Stuart McDonald67,00973.724.619.
197375Paisley and Renfrewshire North Gavin Newlands66,20676.
201371Inverclyde Ronnie Cowan59,35075.226.819.
201371Glasgow South Stewart McDonald74,05165.926.519.
202370Glasgow North Patrick Grady58,87562.724.717.
211361Kilmarnock and Loudoun Alan Brown75,23371.629.
220352East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow Lisa Cameron83,07172.928.617.
227345Lanark and Hamilton East Angela Crawley78,84670.132.820.
233339Ayrshire North and Arran Patricia Gibson75,77271.131.617.
237336Renfrewshire East Kirsten Oswald69,98281.138.823.
246326Dunbartonshire East John Nicolson66,96681.923.25.934.31.01.633.80.00.2SNPLIB
246326Ayrshire Central Philippa Whitford69,98272.634.
251321Ayr Carrick and Cumnock Corri Wilson72,98571.536.716.
276296Argyll and Bute Brendan O'Hara68,87575.328.
321252Dumfries and Galloway Richard Arkless75,24975.246.714.
428145Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale David Mundell68,48376.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2015. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.