North: Majority Sorted Seats

This page shows all the seats in North sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Easington, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Penrith and The Border, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Berwick-upon-Tweed (prediction: LIB), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of North seats with predictions

Lab
Seats
Con
Seats
SeatMP at 2010ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
UKIP
%
NAT
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2010
Win
Pred
Win
13579Easington Grahame Morris63,87354.77.5266.563.5314.390.000.007.99LABLAB
27565Gateshead Ian Mearns66,49257.58.1963.245.7414.500.000.008.32LABLAB
41551Jarrow Stephen Hepburn64,35060.311.6063.464.0712.190.000.008.69LABLAB
45547Tyneside North Mary Glindon77,69059.710.0660.387.3015.230.000.007.03LABLAB
46546Blaydon David Anderson67,80866.28.7458.9313.7511.850.000.006.73LABLAB
52540Washington and Sunderland West Sharon Hodgson68,91054.212.8161.653.7715.020.000.006.75LABLAB
54538Durham North Kevan Jones67,54860.612.0160.555.4416.090.000.005.91LABLAB
60532South Shields David Miliband63,29457.712.5660.213.1310.460.000.0013.64LABLAB
66526Houghton and Sunderland South Bridget Phillipson68,72955.312.3958.433.0713.030.006.486.60LABLAB
71521Durham, City of Roberta Blackman-Woods68,83267.27.2953.1122.0913.080.000.004.43LABLAB
72520Wansbeck Ian Lavery63,04560.79.6255.4311.8914.770.000.008.29LABLAB
74518Newcastle upon Tyne East Nick Brown64,48758.78.7954.3417.6811.880.000.007.31LABLAB
75517Middlesbrough Sir Stuart Bell65,14851.410.3055.664.3916.180.000.0013.47LABLAB
76516Newcastle upon Tyne Central Chi Onwurah60,50756.510.6155.868.5014.860.000.0010.17LABLAB
81511Blyth Valley Ronnie Campbell64,26360.09.1253.8911.6016.330.000.009.06LABLAB
104488Durham North West Pat Glass70,61862.010.9752.349.3515.680.005.646.02LABLAB
112480Sedgefield Phil Wilson64,72762.114.4555.124.4016.470.000.009.55LABLAB
114478Newcastle upon Tyne North Catherine McKinnell67,11065.59.9450.5317.4815.290.000.006.75LABLAB
148444Stockton North Alex Cunningham67,36358.616.9151.623.5415.150.000.0012.78LABLAB
153439Redcar Ian Swales67,12562.57.5741.6329.5815.820.000.005.40LIBLAB
155437Sunderland Central Julie Elliott74,48557.021.0454.973.7314.140.000.006.12LABLAB
163429Hartlepool Iain Wright68,92355.519.1051.643.7618.640.000.006.86LABLAB
170422Bishop Auckland Helen Goodman68,37060.217.2348.986.7515.530.000.0011.51LABLAB
190402Workington Tony Cunningham59,60765.924.8253.492.9912.420.000.006.29LABLAB
191401Tynemouth Alan Campbell75,68069.625.3753.713.2812.450.000.005.19LABLAB
195397Barrow and Furness John Woodcock68,75864.227.2754.972.2110.670.000.004.88LABLAB
203389Darlington Jenny Chapman69,35261.922.4449.417.8315.590.000.004.73LABLAB
224368Copeland Jamie Reed63,29167.628.0552.962.2511.160.000.005.59LABLAB
247345Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East Tom Blenkinsop72,66463.626.5847.973.5015.210.000.006.74LABLAB
272320Stockton South James Wharton74,55267.429.9046.753.3313.750.000.006.27CONLAB
281311Carlisle John Stevenson65,26364.730.2845.913.4313.300.000.007.08CONLAB
383208Berwick-upon-Tweed Alan Beith57,40367.027.6923.2028.1316.040.000.004.95LIBLIB
388204Hexham Guy Opperman61,37570.834.1929.0114.3212.810.000.009.67CONCON
449142Westmorland and Lonsdale Tim Farron67,88175.827.1512.2844.4214.360.000.001.79LIBLIB
51280Penrith and The Border Rory Stewart64,54869.944.3522.9712.8615.600.000.004.21CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2010. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.