North: Majority Sorted Seats

This page shows all the seats in North sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Easington, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Penrith and The Border, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Berwick-upon-Tweed (prediction: LIB), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Barrow and Furness (prediction: CON).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of North seats with predictions

Lab Seats	Con Seats	Seat	MP at 2005	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	NAT %	MIN %	OTH %	2005 Win	Pred Win
8	570	Easington	John Cummings	61,945	52.3	22.09	61.27	9.03	0.00	0.00	7.60	LAB	LAB
24	554	Houghton and Sunderland South	Fraser Kemp	69,512	50.7	27.31	56.53	9.92	0.00	0.00	6.24	LAB	LAB
26	552	Washington and Sunderland West	Sharon Hodgson	68,220	52.6	26.57	54.98	8.75	0.00	0.00	9.71	LAB	LAB
27	551	Gateshead	David Clelland	64,488	52.9	24.44	52.82	15.48	0.00	0.00	7.26	LAB	LAB
41	537	Jarrow	Stephen Hepburn	63,372	55.0	25.50	50.12	16.48	0.00	0.00	7.91	LAB	LAB
44	534	Durham North	Kevan Jones	67,507	55.3	29.89	53.71	13.47	0.00	0.00	2.93	LAB	LAB
47	531	Sedgefield	Tony Blair	64,544	62.2	25.56	48.49	8.21	0.00	10.52	7.21	LAB	LAB
60	518	Blaydon	David Anderson	66,727	61.8	21.32	41.02	31.84	0.00	0.00	5.82	LAB	LAB
74	504	Middlesbrough	Sir Stuart Bell	65,976	48.9	29.58	47.38	12.93	0.00	0.00	10.11	LAB	LAB
78	500	Blyth Valley	Ronnie Campbell	63,640	56.2	27.27	44.58	25.18	0.00	0.00	2.97	LAB	LAB
79	499	South Shields	David Miliband	62,634	51.2	31.51	48.75	13.53	0.00	0.00	6.21	LAB	LAB
80	498	Tyneside North	Stephen Byers	71,931	56.9	31.44	48.36	17.04	0.00	0.00	3.15	LAB	LAB
83	495	Wansbeck	Denis Murphy	63,095	58.3	28.32	44.81	20.51	0.00	0.00	6.35	LAB	LAB
84	494	Hartlepool	Iain Wright	68,776	51.5	24.79	41.13	24.47	0.00	0.00	9.61	LAB	LAB
85	493	Newcastle upon Tyne East	Nick Brown	60,374	56.1	25.45	41.75	27.49	0.00	0.00	5.31	LAB	LAB
97	481	Durham, City of	Roberta Blackman-Woods	71,442	62.1	22.76	36.80	33.85	0.00	0.00	6.59	LAB	LAB
98	480	Durham North West	Hilary Armstrong	68,109	58.0	29.68	43.56	14.00	0.00	0.00	12.75	LAB	LAB
105	473	Newcastle upon Tyne North	Doug Henderson	68,862	59.3	27.78	39.43	27.31	0.00	0.00	5.48	LAB	LAB
108	470	Stockton North	Frank Cook	66,034	57.8	33.75	44.93	13.23	0.00	0.00	8.09	LAB	LAB
118	460	Redcar	Vera Baird	66,948	58.0	31.24	41.01	14.26	0.00	6.12	7.37	LAB	LAB
121	457	Newcastle upon Tyne Central	Jim Cousins	58,725	54.9	31.15	40.22	19.43	0.00	0.00	9.19	LAB	LAB
143	435	Bishop Auckland	Helen Goodman	67,557	56.5	36.25	39.63	17.72	0.00	0.00	6.41	LAB	LAB
147	431	Darlington	Alan Milburn	66,540	60.4	39.09	41.80	13.03	0.00	0.07	6.01	LAB	LAB
153	425	Workington	Tony Cunningham	57,051	64.8	39.25	41.43	12.20	0.00	0.00	7.12	LAB	LAB
186	392	Sunderland Central	Bill Etherington	72,930	49.8	38.40	36.27	14.58	0.00	0.00	10.75	LAB	CON
197	381	Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East	Ashok Kumar	71,831	60.7	43.65	39.84	9.85	0.00	0.00	6.66	LAB	CON
242	336	Tynemouth	Alan Campbell	71,226	65.9	48.66	38.53	10.14	0.00	0.00	2.67	LAB	CON
243	335	Stockton South	Dari Taylor	68,519	63.0	47.11	36.83	11.16	0.00	0.00	4.89	LAB	CON
249	329	Carlisle	Eric Martlew	63,761	59.9	47.19	36.23	10.89	0.00	0.00	5.70	LAB	CON
250	328	Barrow and Furness	John Hutton	64,903	59.5	45.71	34.68	12.41	0.00	0.00	7.19	LAB	CON
261	317	Copeland	Jamie Reed	62,032	62.6	47.12	34.74	9.64	0.00	0.00	8.50	LAB	CON
374	203	Berwick-upon-Tweed	Alan Beith	57,438	63.4	41.68	8.92	46.47	0.00	0.00	2.93	LIB	LIB
385	193	Hexham	Peter Atkinson	59,867	68.8	55.78	19.87	19.88	0.00	0.00	4.47	CON	CON
488	90	Westmorland and Lonsdale	Tim Farron	66,342	71.6	52.20	3.79	40.13	0.00	0.00	3.87	LIB	CON
556	22	Penrith and The Border	David Maclean	63,235	66.1	65.41	9.34	18.24	0.00	0.00	7.02	CON	CON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2005. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.