North: Majority Sorted Seats

This page shows all the seats in North sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Easington, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Penrith and The Border, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Berwick-upon-Tweed (prediction: LIB), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of North seats with predictions

Lab Seats	Con Seats	Seat	MP at 2010	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	UKIP %	NAT %	MIN %	OTH %	2010 Win	Pred Win
13	579	Easington	Grahame Morris	63,873	54.7	7.52	66.56	3.53	14.39	0.00	0.00	7.99	LAB	LAB
27	565	Gateshead	Ian Mearns	66,492	57.5	8.19	63.24	5.74	14.50	0.00	0.00	8.32	LAB	LAB
41	551	Jarrow	Stephen Hepburn	64,350	60.3	11.60	63.46	4.07	12.19	0.00	0.00	8.69	LAB	LAB
45	547	Tyneside North	Mary Glindon	77,690	59.7	10.06	60.38	7.30	15.23	0.00	0.00	7.03	LAB	LAB
46	546	Blaydon	David Anderson	67,808	66.2	8.74	58.93	13.75	11.85	0.00	0.00	6.73	LAB	LAB
52	540	Washington and Sunderland West	Sharon Hodgson	68,910	54.2	12.81	61.65	3.77	15.02	0.00	0.00	6.75	LAB	LAB
54	538	Durham North	Kevan Jones	67,548	60.6	12.01	60.55	5.44	16.09	0.00	0.00	5.91	LAB	LAB
60	532	South Shields	David Miliband	63,294	57.7	12.56	60.21	3.13	10.46	0.00	0.00	13.64	LAB	LAB
66	526	Houghton and Sunderland South	Bridget Phillipson	68,729	55.3	12.39	58.43	3.07	13.03	0.00	6.48	6.60	LAB	LAB
71	521	Durham, City of	Roberta Blackman-Woods	68,832	67.2	7.29	53.11	22.09	13.08	0.00	0.00	4.43	LAB	LAB
72	520	Wansbeck	Ian Lavery	63,045	60.7	9.62	55.43	11.89	14.77	0.00	0.00	8.29	LAB	LAB
74	518	Newcastle upon Tyne East	Nick Brown	64,487	58.7	8.79	54.34	17.68	11.88	0.00	0.00	7.31	LAB	LAB
75	517	Middlesbrough	Sir Stuart Bell	65,148	51.4	10.30	55.66	4.39	16.18	0.00	0.00	13.47	LAB	LAB
76	516	Newcastle upon Tyne Central	Chi Onwurah	60,507	56.5	10.61	55.86	8.50	14.86	0.00	0.00	10.17	LAB	LAB
81	511	Blyth Valley	Ronnie Campbell	64,263	60.0	9.12	53.89	11.60	16.33	0.00	0.00	9.06	LAB	LAB
104	488	Durham North West	Pat Glass	70,618	62.0	10.97	52.34	9.35	15.68	0.00	5.64	6.02	LAB	LAB
112	480	Sedgefield	Phil Wilson	64,727	62.1	14.45	55.12	4.40	16.47	0.00	0.00	9.55	LAB	LAB
114	478	Newcastle upon Tyne North	Catherine McKinnell	67,110	65.5	9.94	50.53	17.48	15.29	0.00	0.00	6.75	LAB	LAB
148	444	Stockton North	Alex Cunningham	67,363	58.6	16.91	51.62	3.54	15.15	0.00	0.00	12.78	LAB	LAB
153	439	Redcar	Ian Swales	67,125	62.5	7.57	41.63	29.58	15.82	0.00	0.00	5.40	LIB	LAB
155	437	Sunderland Central	Julie Elliott	74,485	57.0	21.04	54.97	3.73	14.14	0.00	0.00	6.12	LAB	LAB
163	429	Hartlepool	Iain Wright	68,923	55.5	19.10	51.64	3.76	18.64	0.00	0.00	6.86	LAB	LAB
170	422	Bishop Auckland	Helen Goodman	68,370	60.2	17.23	48.98	6.75	15.53	0.00	0.00	11.51	LAB	LAB
190	402	Workington	Tony Cunningham	59,607	65.9	24.82	53.49	2.99	12.42	0.00	0.00	6.29	LAB	LAB
191	401	Tynemouth	Alan Campbell	75,680	69.6	25.37	53.71	3.28	12.45	0.00	0.00	5.19	LAB	LAB
195	397	Barrow and Furness	John Woodcock	68,758	64.2	27.27	54.97	2.21	10.67	0.00	0.00	4.88	LAB	LAB
203	389	Darlington	Jenny Chapman	69,352	61.9	22.44	49.41	7.83	15.59	0.00	0.00	4.73	LAB	LAB
224	368	Copeland	Jamie Reed	63,291	67.6	28.05	52.96	2.25	11.16	0.00	0.00	5.59	LAB	LAB
247	345	Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East	Tom Blenkinsop	72,664	63.6	26.58	47.97	3.50	15.21	0.00	0.00	6.74	LAB	LAB
272	320	Stockton South	James Wharton	74,552	67.4	29.90	46.75	3.33	13.75	0.00	0.00	6.27	CON	LAB
281	311	Carlisle	John Stevenson	65,263	64.7	30.28	45.91	3.43	13.30	0.00	0.00	7.08	CON	LAB
383	208	Berwick-upon-Tweed	Alan Beith	57,403	67.0	27.69	23.20	28.13	16.04	0.00	0.00	4.95	LIB	LIB
388	204	Hexham	Guy Opperman	61,375	70.8	34.19	29.01	14.32	12.81	0.00	0.00	9.67	CON	CON
449	142	Westmorland and Lonsdale	Tim Farron	67,881	75.8	27.15	12.28	44.42	14.36	0.00	0.00	1.79	LIB	LIB
512	80	Penrith and The Border	Rory Stewart	64,548	69.9	44.35	22.97	12.86	15.60	0.00	0.00	4.21	CON	CON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2010. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.