North: Majority Sorted Seats

This page shows all the seats in North sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Easington, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Penrith and The Border, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Berwick-upon-Tweed (prediction: LIB), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Barrow and Furness (prediction: CON).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of North seats with predictions

Lab
Seats
Con
Seats
SeatMP at 2005ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
NAT
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2005
Win
Pred
Win
8570Easington John Cummings61,94552.322.0961.279.030.000.007.60LABLAB
24554Houghton and Sunderland South Fraser Kemp69,51250.727.3156.539.920.000.006.24LABLAB
26552Washington and Sunderland West Sharon Hodgson68,22052.626.5754.988.750.000.009.71LABLAB
27551Gateshead David Clelland64,48852.924.4452.8215.480.000.007.26LABLAB
41537Jarrow Stephen Hepburn63,37255.025.5050.1216.480.000.007.91LABLAB
44534Durham North Kevan Jones67,50755.329.8953.7113.470.000.002.93LABLAB
47531Sedgefield Tony Blair64,54462.225.5648.498.210.0010.527.21LABLAB
60518Blaydon David Anderson66,72761.821.3241.0231.840.000.005.82LABLAB
74504Middlesbrough Sir Stuart Bell65,97648.929.5847.3812.930.000.0010.11LABLAB
78500Blyth Valley Ronnie Campbell63,64056.227.2744.5825.180.000.002.97LABLAB
79499South Shields David Miliband62,63451.231.5148.7513.530.000.006.21LABLAB
80498Tyneside North Stephen Byers71,93156.931.4448.3617.040.000.003.15LABLAB
83495Wansbeck Denis Murphy63,09558.328.3244.8120.510.000.006.35LABLAB
84494Hartlepool Iain Wright68,77651.524.7941.1324.470.000.009.61LABLAB
85493Newcastle upon Tyne East Nick Brown60,37456.125.4541.7527.490.000.005.31LABLAB
97481Durham, City of Roberta Blackman-Woods71,44262.122.7636.8033.850.000.006.59LABLAB
98480Durham North West Hilary Armstrong68,10958.029.6843.5614.000.000.0012.75LABLAB
105473Newcastle upon Tyne North Doug Henderson68,86259.327.7839.4327.310.000.005.48LABLAB
108470Stockton North Frank Cook66,03457.833.7544.9313.230.000.008.09LABLAB
118460Redcar Vera Baird66,94858.031.2441.0114.260.006.127.37LABLAB
121457Newcastle upon Tyne Central Jim Cousins58,72554.931.1540.2219.430.000.009.19LABLAB
143435Bishop Auckland Helen Goodman67,55756.536.2539.6317.720.000.006.41LABLAB
147431Darlington Alan Milburn66,54060.439.0941.8013.030.000.076.01LABLAB
153425Workington Tony Cunningham57,05164.839.2541.4312.200.000.007.12LABLAB
186392Sunderland Central Bill Etherington72,93049.838.4036.2714.580.000.0010.75LABCON
197381Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East Ashok Kumar71,83160.743.6539.849.850.000.006.66LABCON
242336Tynemouth Alan Campbell71,22665.948.6638.5310.140.000.002.67LABCON
243335Stockton South Dari Taylor68,51963.047.1136.8311.160.000.004.89LABCON
249329Carlisle Eric Martlew63,76159.947.1936.2310.890.000.005.70LABCON
250328Barrow and Furness John Hutton64,90359.545.7134.6812.410.000.007.19LABCON
261317Copeland Jamie Reed62,03262.647.1234.749.640.000.008.50LABCON
374203Berwick-upon-Tweed Alan Beith57,43863.441.688.9246.470.000.002.93LIBLIB
385193Hexham Peter Atkinson59,86768.855.7819.8719.880.000.004.47CONCON
48890Westmorland and Lonsdale Tim Farron66,34271.652.203.7940.130.000.003.87LIBCON
55622Penrith and The Border David Maclean63,23566.165.419.3418.240.000.007.02CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2005. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.