North: Majority Sorted Seats

This page shows all the seats in North sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Easington, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Penrith and The Border, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Berwick-upon-Tweed (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of North seats with predictions

Lab Seats	Con Seats	Seat	MP at 2010	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	NAT %	MIN %	OTH %	2010 Win	Pred Win
15	577	Easington	Grahame Morris	63,873	54.7	14.39	67.55	5.09	0.00	0.00	12.97	LAB	LAB
29	563	Gateshead	Ian Mearns	66,492	57.5	15.78	64.88	7.69	0.00	0.00	11.66	LAB	LAB
43	549	Blaydon	David Anderson	67,808	66.2	16.78	60.38	15.70	0.00	0.00	7.14	LAB	LAB
47	545	Jarrow	Stephen Hepburn	64,350	60.3	21.41	63.83	5.86	0.00	0.00	8.90	LAB	LAB
48	544	Tyneside North	Mary Glindon	77,690	59.7	19.18	61.39	9.24	0.00	0.00	10.19	LAB	LAB
51	541	Durham, City of	Roberta Blackman-Woods	68,832	67.2	14.13	55.05	24.03	0.00	0.00	6.79	LAB	LAB
62	530	Durham North	Kevan Jones	67,548	60.6	21.88	61.26	7.38	0.00	0.00	9.47	LAB	LAB
65	527	Washington and Sunderland West	Sharon Hodgson	68,910	54.2	22.56	61.72	5.43	0.00	0.00	10.29	LAB	LAB
67	525	Newcastle upon Tyne East	Nick Brown	64,487	58.7	16.87	55.78	19.62	0.00	0.00	7.73	LAB	LAB
71	521	Wansbeck	Ian Lavery	63,045	60.7	18.38	56.59	13.83	0.00	0.00	11.20	LAB	LAB
73	519	Blyth Valley	Ronnie Campbell	64,263	60.0	17.46	55.22	13.55	0.00	0.00	13.77	LAB	LAB
74	518	South Shields	David Miliband	63,294	57.7	22.19	59.64	4.51	0.00	0.00	13.65	LAB	LAB
78	514	Middlesbrough	Sir Stuart Bell	65,148	51.4	19.61	56.58	6.32	0.00	0.00	17.49	LAB	LAB
81	511	Newcastle upon Tyne Central	Chi Onwurah	60,507	56.5	20.19	56.69	10.44	0.00	0.00	12.68	LAB	LAB
86	506	Houghton and Sunderland South	Bridget Phillipson	68,729	55.3	22.01	57.81	4.42	0.00	6.48	9.29	LAB	LAB
107	485	Newcastle upon Tyne North	Catherine McKinnell	67,110	65.5	18.96	51.58	19.43	0.00	0.00	10.02	LAB	LAB
110	482	Durham North West	Pat Glass	70,618	62.0	20.84	53.05	11.29	0.00	5.64	9.17	LAB	LAB
118	474	Sedgefield	Phil Wilson	64,727	62.1	24.32	55.83	6.34	0.00	0.00	13.51	LAB	LAB
135	457	Redcar	Ian Swales	67,125	62.5	14.64	43.48	31.52	0.00	0.00	10.36	LIB	LAB
150	442	Stockton North	Alex Cunningham	67,363	58.6	26.62	51.47	5.10	0.00	0.00	16.82	LAB	LAB
159	433	Sunderland Central	Julie Elliott	74,485	57.0	30.78	55.00	5.38	0.00	0.00	8.84	LAB	LAB
163	429	Hartlepool	Iain Wright	68,923	55.5	28.85	51.71	5.42	0.00	0.00	14.02	LAB	LAB
166	426	Bishop Auckland	Helen Goodman	68,370	60.2	27.10	49.69	8.69	0.00	0.00	14.52	LAB	LAB
187	405	Workington	Tony Cunningham	59,607	65.9	34.42	52.78	4.30	0.00	0.00	8.50	LAB	LAB
189	403	Tynemouth	Alan Campbell	75,680	69.6	35.03	53.30	4.73	0.00	0.00	6.94	LAB	LAB
195	397	Darlington	Jenny Chapman	69,352	61.9	32.32	50.12	9.77	0.00	0.00	7.80	LAB	LAB
204	388	Barrow and Furness	John Woodcock	68,758	64.2	36.72	53.49	3.18	0.00	0.00	6.61	LAB	LAB
230	362	Copeland	Jamie Reed	63,291	67.6	37.51	51.52	3.24	0.00	0.00	7.74	LAB	LAB
244	348	Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East	Tom Blenkinsop	72,664	63.6	36.28	47.78	5.04	0.00	0.00	10.90	LAB	LAB
269	323	Stockton South	James Wharton	74,552	67.4	39.57	46.39	4.80	0.00	0.00	9.25	CON	LAB
277	315	Carlisle	John Stevenson	65,263	64.7	39.96	45.64	4.94	0.00	0.00	9.45	CON	LAB
374	218	Berwick-upon-Tweed	Alan Beith	57,403	67.0	37.56	23.90	30.07	0.00	3.23	5.23	LIB	CON
378	214	Hexham	Guy Opperman	61,375	70.8	44.06	29.72	16.26	0.00	0.00	9.96	CON	CON
451	140	Westmorland and Lonsdale	Tim Farron	67,881	75.8	37.02	12.99	46.36	0.00	0.00	3.63	LIB	LIB
518	74	Penrith and The Border	Rory Stewart	64,548	69.9	54.23	23.68	14.81	0.00	0.00	7.29	CON	CON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2010. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.