Lancashire: Majority Sorted Seats

This page shows all the seats in Lancashire sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Knowsley, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Wyre and Preston North, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Wirral West (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Morecambe and Lunesdale (prediction: CON).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Lancashire seats with predictions

Lab Seats	Con Seats	Seat	MP at 2005	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	NAT %	MIN %	OTH %	2005 Win	Pred Win
1	577	Knowsley	Eddie O'Hara	78,857	52.1	19.39	66.21	9.03	0.00	0.00	5.36	LAB	LAB
2	576	Liverpool Walton	Peter Kilfoyle	68,235	45.1	18.68	61.38	11.50	0.00	3.60	4.84	LAB	LAB
9	569	Bootle	Joe Benton	72,022	52.5	20.64	58.94	12.16	0.00	0.00	8.26	LAB	LAB
19	559	Liverpool West Derby	Robert Wareing	66,494	47.7	20.51	50.63	10.63	0.00	10.74	7.49	LAB	LAB
40	538	Liverpool Riverside	Louise Ellman	75,325	42.4	22.69	47.65	17.53	0.00	0.56	11.57	LAB	LAB
45	533	Birkenhead	Frank Field	63,416	50.6	29.80	53.53	13.31	0.00	0.00	3.35	LAB	LAB
51	527	Liverpool Wavertree	Jane Kennedy	67,501	50.2	19.39	41.60	33.50	0.00	0.06	5.46	LAB	LAB
52	526	Garston and Halewood	Maria Eagle	72,064	54.2	23.98	46.10	25.13	0.00	0.00	4.79	LAB	LAB
57	521	St Helens South and Whiston	Shaun Woodward	76,713	53.6	25.20	45.70	22.54	0.00	0.00	6.56	LAB	LAB
91	487	St Helens North	Dave Watts	74,611	56.1	32.30	46.99	14.92	0.00	0.00	5.79	LAB	LAB
138	440	Burnley	Kitty Ussher	65,869	59.2	24.13	28.11	17.71	0.00	14.84	15.21	LAB	LAB
142	436	Preston	Mark Hendrick	51,558	54.4	34.00	37.62	16.73	0.00	0.00	11.65	LAB	LAB
159	419	Wallasey	Angela Eagle	66,021	57.9	42.48	43.76	8.98	0.00	0.00	4.78	LAB	LAB
198	380	Blackburn	Jack Straw	72,441	56.9	35.89	31.91	14.88	0.00	0.00	17.32	LAB	CON
200	378	Blackpool South	Gordon Marsden	63,311	52.2	43.14	38.76	11.03	0.00	0.00	7.08	LAB	CON
213	365	Lancaster and Fleetwood	Unknown (changed seat)	63,880	62.3	40.82	34.70	12.49	0.00	0.00	11.99	LAB	CON
223	355	Chorley	Lindsay Hoyle	70,648	62.9	46.94	39.35	10.97	0.00	0.00	2.74	LAB	CON
229	349	Lancashire West	Rosie Cooper	74,776	57.7	45.87	37.70	9.87	0.00	0.00	6.56	LAB	CON
233	345	Hyndburn	Greg Pope	68,175	58.8	43.84	35.29	10.20	0.00	0.00	10.67	LAB	CON
240	338	Morecambe and Lunesdale	Geraldine Smith	66,847	61.4	49.02	39.01	9.36	0.00	0.00	2.61	LAB	CON
272	306	Ribble South	David Borrow	73,026	63.0	49.92	35.72	9.15	0.00	0.00	5.21	LAB	CON
275	303	Rossendale and Darwen	Janet Anderson	72,175	61.5	46.80	32.52	10.23	0.00	0.00	10.44	LAB	CON
276	302	Wirral South	Ben Chapman	56,181	67.5	46.34	32.01	16.02	0.00	0.00	5.63	LAB	CON
278	300	Blackpool North and Cleveleys	Joan Humble	65,629	56.9	48.73	34.19	9.84	0.00	0.00	7.25	LAB	CON
306	272	Sefton Central	Claire Curtis-Thomas	67,203	60.2	49.84	31.85	13.73	0.00	0.00	4.58	LAB	CON
310	268	Pendle	Gordon Prentice	64,917	63.4	45.12	26.70	17.23	0.00	0.00	10.96	LAB	CON
346	232	Wirral West	Unknown (changed seat)	55,127	67.5	53.99	30.83	11.03	0.00	0.00	4.15	CON	CON
421	157	Ribble Valley	Nigel Evans	75,991	62.9	58.65	17.93	15.67	0.00	0.00	7.74	CON	CON
427	151	Southport	John Pugh	67,977	60.6	47.32	6.17	40.40	0.00	0.00	6.12	LIB	CON
485	93	Fylde	Michael Jack	65,799	60.1	65.05	17.07	10.98	0.00	0.00	6.90	CON	CON
555	23	Wyre and Preston North	Unknown (new seat)	69,270	64.4	71.75	15.82	9.78	0.00	0.00	2.65	CON	CON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2005. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.