Lancashire: Majority Sorted Seats

This page shows all the seats in Lancashire sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Liverpool Walton, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Fylde, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Ribble South (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Lancaster and Fleetwood (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Lancashire seats with predictions

Lab Seats	Con Seats	Seat	MP at 2010	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	NAT %	MIN %	OTH %	2010 Win	Pred Win
1	591	Liverpool Walton	Steve Rotheram	62,612	54.8	7.13	79.74	4.37	0.00	3.22	5.55	LAB	LAB
2	590	Knowsley	George Howarth	79,561	56.1	9.53	78.16	4.09	0.00	0.00	8.21	LAB	LAB
3	589	Bootle	Joe Benton	71,426	57.8	9.55	74.70	4.64	0.00	6.09	5.02	LAB	LAB
5	587	Liverpool West Derby	Stephen Twigg	63,082	56.7	9.79	70.98	3.84	0.00	9.30	6.09	LAB	LAB
6	586	Liverpool Riverside	Louise Ellman	74,539	52.1	11.79	70.18	8.88	0.00	0.00	9.16	LAB	LAB
9	583	Liverpool Wavertree	Luciana Berger	62,518	60.6	8.31	64.01	20.33	0.00	0.00	7.35	LAB	LAB
14	578	Garston and Halewood	Maria Eagle	71,312	60.1	16.98	70.44	6.25	0.00	0.00	6.33	LAB	LAB
17	575	Birkenhead	Frank Field	62,773	56.3	19.72	72.64	5.69	0.00	0.00	1.95	LAB	LAB
39	553	St Helens South and Whiston	Shaun Woodward	77,975	59.1	18.66	63.78	8.36	0.00	0.00	9.19	LAB	LAB
60	532	St Helens North	Dave Watts	74,985	59.4	23.16	62.62	6.31	0.00	0.00	7.90	LAB	LAB
80	512	Preston	Mark Hendrick	62,460	52.0	22.57	59.11	10.54	0.00	0.00	7.77	LAB	LAB
134	458	Blackburn	Jack Straw	72,331	62.9	26.79	56.10	4.66	0.00	0.00	12.45	LAB	LAB
145	447	Wallasey	Angela Eagle	65,915	63.2	31.96	59.26	4.19	0.00	0.00	4.59	LAB	LAB
152	440	Burnley	Gordon Birtwistle	66,616	62.8	17.46	42.25	21.82	0.00	8.95	9.52	LIB	LAB
193	399	Sefton Central	Bill Esterson	67,512	71.8	34.78	52.77	6.11	0.00	0.00	6.34	LAB	LAB
213	379	Lancashire West	Rosie Cooper	75,975	63.8	36.76	52.54	4.16	0.00	0.00	6.54	LAB	LAB
234	358	Hyndburn	Graham Jones	67,221	63.5	34.34	47.52	3.62	0.00	5.01	9.51	LAB	LAB
238	354	Blackpool South	Gordon Marsden	63,025	55.8	36.41	48.94	4.43	0.00	0.00	10.23	LAB	LAB
240	352	Chorley	Lindsay Hoyle	70,950	70.2	38.61	50.85	4.29	0.00	0.00	6.25	LAB	LAB
255	337	Wirral South	Alison McGovern	56,099	71.1	40.16	49.82	5.08	0.00	0.00	4.94	LAB	LAB
259	333	Lancaster and Fleetwood	Eric Ollerenshaw	69,908	61.1	36.89	45.73	5.86	0.00	0.00	11.52	CON	LAB
285	307	Morecambe and Lunesdale	David Morris	69,965	62.1	42.09	46.80	4.09	0.00	0.00	7.02	CON	LAB
300	292	Wirral West	Esther McVey	55,050	71.5	43.20	45.48	5.16	0.00	0.00	6.16	CON	LAB
301	291	Pendle	Andrew Stephenson	66,417	67.8	39.73	41.83	6.32	0.00	0.00	12.12	CON	LAB
306	286	Blackpool North and Cleveleys	Paul Maynard	65,888	61.6	42.36	43.75	4.08	0.00	0.00	9.81	CON	LAB
315	277	Rossendale and Darwen	Jake Berry	73,003	64.6	42.55	42.13	5.56	0.00	0.00	9.76	CON	CON
334	258	Ribble South	Lorraine Fullbrook	75,822	67.9	46.07	42.38	4.33	0.00	0.00	7.22	CON	CON
388	204	Southport	John Pugh	67,202	65.1	36.69	20.32	35.74	0.00	0.00	7.25	LIB	CON
401	191	Ribble Valley	Nigel Evans	78,068	67.0	51.15	32.96	6.66	0.00	0.00	9.24	CON	CON
417	175	Wyre and Preston North	Ben Wallace	71,201	72.1	53.23	32.22	7.64	0.00	0.00	6.91	CON	CON
433	159	Fylde	Mark Menzies	65,917	66.3	53.10	30.65	8.20	0.00	0.00	8.06	CON	CON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2010. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.