Greater Manchester: Majority Sorted Seats

This page shows all the seats in Greater Manchester sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Blackley and Broughton, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Cheadle, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Hazel Grove (prediction: LIB), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Bolton North East (prediction: CON).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Greater Manchester seats with predictions

Lab Seats	Con Seats	Seat	MP at 2005	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	NAT %	MIN %	OTH %	2005 Win	Pred Win
30	548	Blackley and Broughton	Graham Stringer	65,596	45.0	24.86	52.34	15.03	0.00	0.00	7.76	LAB	LAB
32	546	Manchester Central	Tony Lloyd	72,709	42.7	24.02	50.60	14.47	0.00	3.62	7.29	LAB	LAB
35	543	Leigh	Andrew Burnham	75,877	51.3	26.16	51.66	10.59	0.00	0.36	11.22	LAB	LAB
38	540	Makerfield	Ian McCartney	74,255	51.2	25.73	51.06	7.93	0.00	5.84	9.43	LAB	LAB
73	505	Manchester Gorton	Sir Gerald Kaufman	70,853	44.6	23.34	41.21	28.39	0.00	0.42	6.64	LAB	LAB
76	502	Denton and Reddish	Andrew Gwynne	65,133	52.0	30.72	48.24	11.66	0.00	0.00	9.37	LAB	LAB
77	501	Ashton under Lyne	David Heyes	67,113	51.4	31.43	48.76	7.77	0.00	0.00	12.03	LAB	LAB
82	496	Wigan	Neil Turner	75,898	53.1	30.87	47.58	11.53	0.00	1.01	9.01	LAB	LAB
94	484	Salford and Eccles	Hazel Blears	72,508	46.2	30.23	44.66	16.40	0.00	0.00	8.70	LAB	LAB
120	458	Bolton South East	Brian Iddon	67,717	51.2	35.80	44.94	12.88	0.00	0.00	6.37	LAB	LAB
130	447	Manchester Withington	John Leech	69,242	55.0	23.77	30.37	36.23	0.00	0.09	9.53	LIB	LIB
133	445	Wythenshawe and Sale East	Paul Goggins	71,766	50.4	35.59	41.80	15.52	0.00	0.00	7.09	LAB	LAB
136	441	Rochdale	Paul Rowen	74,090	58.3	24.69	29.72	35.52	0.00	0.00	10.07	LIB	LIB
140	438	Heywood and Middleton	Jim Dobbin	76,126	54.8	34.50	38.47	13.65	0.00	0.00	13.38	LAB	LAB
146	432	Oldham West and Royton	Michael Meacher	71,303	53.1	34.73	37.59	15.93	0.00	0.00	11.74	LAB	LAB
156	422	Oldham East and Saddleworth	Phil Woolas	72,015	57.0	30.38	32.23	25.76	0.00	0.00	11.63	LAB	LAB
157	421	Stockport	Ann Coffey	64,131	54.6	38.36	39.97	15.94	0.00	0.00	5.74	LAB	LAB
162	416	Stalybridge and Hyde	James Purnell	66,884	53.5	38.39	39.33	10.87	0.00	0.00	11.41	LAB	LAB
172	406	Bury South	Ivan Lewis	72,697	58.8	40.68	39.92	12.02	0.00	0.00	7.38	LAB	CON
174	404	Stretford and Urmston	Beverley Hughes	63,413	61.6	42.02	41.14	9.61	0.00	0.00	7.23	LAB	CON
178	400	Worsley and Eccles South	Barbara Keeley	72,043	51.7	43.15	41.75	9.91	0.00	0.00	5.19	LAB	CON
248	330	Bolton North East	David Crausby	69,284	54.6	46.82	35.89	11.29	0.00	0.00	6.00	LAB	CON
267	311	Bolton West	Ruth Kelly	68,923	61.6	46.15	33.18	15.43	0.00	0.00	5.25	LAB	CON
297	281	Bury North	David Chaytor	66,469	61.4	49.04	32.22	10.65	0.00	0.00	8.09	LAB	CON
376	201	Hazel Grove	Andrew Stunell	63,030	61.2	41.88	7.94	44.34	0.00	0.00	5.84	LIB	LIB
428	150	Altrincham and Sale West	Graham Brady	65,811	65.9	60.23	18.95	16.15	0.00	0.00	4.67	CON	CON
459	119	Cheadle	Patsy Calton	72,123	68.4	49.21	4.89	41.61	0.00	0.00	4.29	LIB	CON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2005. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.