Greater Manchester: Majority Sorted Seats

This page shows all the seats in Greater Manchester sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Blackley and Broughton, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Cheadle, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Hazel Grove (prediction: LIB), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Bolton North East (prediction: CON).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Greater Manchester seats with predictions

Lab
Seats
Con
Seats
SeatMP at 2005ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
NAT
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2005
Win
Pred
Win
30548Blackley and Broughton Graham Stringer65,59645.024.8652.3415.030.000.007.76LABLAB
32546Manchester Central Tony Lloyd72,70942.724.0250.6014.470.003.627.29LABLAB
35543Leigh Andrew Burnham75,87751.326.1651.6610.590.000.3611.22LABLAB
38540Makerfield Ian McCartney74,25551.225.7351.067.930.005.849.43LABLAB
73505Manchester Gorton Sir Gerald Kaufman70,85344.623.3441.2128.390.000.426.64LABLAB
76502Denton and Reddish Andrew Gwynne65,13352.030.7248.2411.660.000.009.37LABLAB
77501Ashton under Lyne David Heyes67,11351.431.4348.767.770.000.0012.03LABLAB
82496Wigan Neil Turner75,89853.130.8747.5811.530.001.019.01LABLAB
94484Salford and Eccles Hazel Blears72,50846.230.2344.6616.400.000.008.70LABLAB
120458Bolton South East Brian Iddon67,71751.235.8044.9412.880.000.006.37LABLAB
130447Manchester Withington John Leech69,24255.023.7730.3736.230.000.099.53LIBLIB
133445Wythenshawe and Sale East Paul Goggins71,76650.435.5941.8015.520.000.007.09LABLAB
136441Rochdale Paul Rowen74,09058.324.6929.7235.520.000.0010.07LIBLIB
140438Heywood and Middleton Jim Dobbin76,12654.834.5038.4713.650.000.0013.38LABLAB
146432Oldham West and Royton Michael Meacher71,30353.134.7337.5915.930.000.0011.74LABLAB
156422Oldham East and Saddleworth Phil Woolas72,01557.030.3832.2325.760.000.0011.63LABLAB
157421Stockport Ann Coffey64,13154.638.3639.9715.940.000.005.74LABLAB
162416Stalybridge and Hyde James Purnell66,88453.538.3939.3310.870.000.0011.41LABLAB
172406Bury South Ivan Lewis72,69758.840.6839.9212.020.000.007.38LABCON
174404Stretford and Urmston Beverley Hughes63,41361.642.0241.149.610.000.007.23LABCON
178400Worsley and Eccles South Barbara Keeley72,04351.743.1541.759.910.000.005.19LABCON
248330Bolton North East David Crausby69,28454.646.8235.8911.290.000.006.00LABCON
267311Bolton West Ruth Kelly68,92361.646.1533.1815.430.000.005.25LABCON
297281Bury North David Chaytor66,46961.449.0432.2210.650.000.008.09LABCON
376201Hazel Grove Andrew Stunell63,03061.241.887.9444.340.000.005.84LIBLIB
428150Altrincham and Sale West Graham Brady65,81165.960.2318.9516.150.000.004.67CONCON
459119Cheadle Patsy Calton72,12368.449.214.8941.610.000.004.29LIBCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2005. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.