Greater Manchester: Majority Sorted Seats

This page shows all the seats in Greater Manchester sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Manchester Central, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Cheadle, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Hazel Grove (prediction: LIB), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Bolton West (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Greater Manchester seats with predictions

Lab Seats	Con Seats	Seat	MP at 2010	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	NAT %	MIN %	OTH %	2010 Win	Pred Win
20	572	Manchester Central	Tony Lloyd	90,110	44.3	12.63	63.65	12.73	0.00	0.00	10.98	LAB	LAB
28	564	Manchester Gorton	Sir Gerald Kaufman	75,933	50.5	11.87	61.04	18.77	0.00	0.00	8.32	LAB	LAB
44	548	Blackley and Broughton	Graham Stringer	69,489	49.2	18.91	62.02	4.36	0.00	0.00	14.71	LAB	LAB
61	531	Manchester Withington	John Leech	74,371	60.5	11.97	51.36	30.79	0.00	0.00	5.88	LIB	LAB
79	513	Makerfield	Yvonne Fovargue	73,641	59.4	19.44	56.12	4.96	0.00	7.82	11.65	LAB	LAB
84	508	Leigh	Andrew Burnham	76,350	58.1	21.71	57.94	5.57	0.00	0.00	14.78	LAB	LAB
92	500	Denton and Reddish	Andrew Gwynne	64,765	58.1	25.63	60.74	5.48	0.00	0.00	8.15	LAB	LAB
119	473	Wigan	Lisa Nandy	75,564	58.4	25.39	56.89	4.72	0.00	0.00	13.00	LAB	LAB
121	471	Oldham West and Royton	Michael Meacher	72,651	59.1	24.47	55.87	5.85	0.00	0.00	13.81	LAB	LAB
123	469	Ashton under Lyne	David Heyes	67,564	56.9	25.38	56.50	4.55	0.00	7.62	5.95	LAB	LAB
129	463	Bolton South East	Yasmin Qureshi	69,928	56.6	26.30	56.09	4.87	0.00	0.00	12.75	LAB	LAB
130	462	Salford and Eccles	Hazel Blears	75,482	55.0	21.31	51.01	12.45	0.00	0.00	15.23	LAB	LAB
136	456	Wythenshawe and Sale East	Paul Goggins	79,923	51.0	26.40	55.05	8.48	0.00	0.00	10.07	LAB	LAB
139	453	Stretford and Urmston	Kate Green	70,091	64.1	29.41	57.82	5.19	0.00	0.00	7.58	LAB	LAB
140	452	Rochdale	Simon Danczuk	78,952	58.1	18.94	47.29	20.57	0.00	0.00	13.20	LAB	LAB
144	448	Stockport	Ann Coffey	63,525	61.6	26.19	53.58	11.12	0.00	0.00	9.11	LAB	LAB
162	430	Heywood and Middleton	Jim Dobbin	80,171	57.5	28.01	51.02	8.84	0.00	0.00	12.13	LAB	LAB
185	407	Worsley and Eccles South	Barbara Keeley	72,473	57.5	33.21	51.91	5.06	0.00	0.00	9.82	LAB	LAB
210	382	Bury South	Ivan Lewis	73,544	65.6	34.37	50.36	5.59	0.00	0.00	9.68	LAB	LAB
211	381	Bolton North East	David Crausby	67,281	64.3	37.03	53.00	3.98	0.00	0.00	5.98	LAB	LAB
216	376	Oldham East and Saddleworth	Phil Woolas	72,765	61.2	27.29	42.77	17.77	0.00	0.00	12.17	LAB	LAB
220	372	Stalybridge and Hyde	Jonathan Reynolds	69,037	59.2	33.61	48.90	5.22	0.00	0.00	12.26	LAB	LAB
260	332	Bolton West	Julie Hilling	71,250	66.8	39.06	47.90	5.27	0.00	0.00	7.77	LAB	LAB
291	301	Bury North	David Nuttall	66,759	67.3	40.91	44.48	5.21	0.00	0.00	9.40	CON	LAB
363	228	Hazel Grove	Andrew Stunell	63,074	66.6	34.47	23.38	34.93	0.00	0.00	7.22	LIB	LIB
390	202	Altrincham and Sale West	Graham Brady	71,254	69.3	49.80	33.33	11.60	0.00	0.00	5.27	CON	CON
422	170	Cheadle	Mark Hunter	72,458	72.5	41.69	20.28	33.20	0.00	0.00	4.83	LIB	CON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2010. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.