Greater Manchester: Majority Sorted Seats

This page shows all the seats in Greater Manchester sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Manchester Central, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Cheadle, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Hazel Grove (prediction: LIB), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Bolton West (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Greater Manchester seats with predictions

Lab
Seats
Con
Seats
SeatMP at 2010ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
NAT
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2010
Win
Pred
Win
31570Manchester Central Tony Lloyd90,11044.315.5061.4415.920.000.007.14LABLAB
41560Manchester Gorton Sir Gerald Kaufman75,93350.514.5858.4521.960.000.005.00LABLAB
50551Blackley and Broughton Graham Stringer69,48949.221.3461.396.630.000.0010.64LABLAB
83518Manchester Withington John Leech74,37160.514.5348.4533.980.000.003.04LIBLAB
91510Makerfield Yvonne Fovargue73,64159.421.9254.707.540.007.828.01LABLAB
97504Leigh Andrew Burnham76,35058.124.5956.588.470.000.0010.36LABLAB
108493Denton and Reddish Andrew Gwynne64,76558.128.0958.538.330.000.005.04LABLAB
121480Wigan Lisa Nandy75,56458.427.8655.807.180.000.009.16LABLAB
129472Ashton under Lyne David Heyes67,56456.927.3754.566.920.007.623.53LABLAB
131470Oldham West and Royton Michael Meacher72,65159.127.4054.208.900.000.009.50LABLAB
138463Bolton South East Yasmin Qureshi69,92856.628.8154.887.400.000.008.91LABLAB
143458Salford and Eccles Hazel Blears75,48255.024.4249.3715.640.000.0010.56LABLAB
145456Stretford and Urmston Kate Green70,09164.131.7455.717.890.000.004.66LABLAB
148453Wythenshawe and Sale East Paul Goggins79,92351.029.2152.7111.670.000.006.41LABLAB
149452Rochdale Simon Danczuk78,95258.121.9345.3723.760.000.008.93LABLAB
156445Stockport Ann Coffey63,52561.628.9451.1114.320.000.005.64LABLAB
180421Heywood and Middleton Jim Dobbin80,17157.530.9448.9612.030.000.008.07LABLAB
202399Worsley and Eccles South Barbara Keeley72,47357.535.6150.187.700.000.006.51LABLAB
216385Bolton North East David Crausby67,28164.338.8251.406.060.000.003.71LABLAB
226375Bury South Ivan Lewis73,54465.636.9648.298.500.000.006.25LABLAB
229372Stalybridge and Hyde Jonathan Reynolds69,03759.236.2247.407.940.000.008.43LABLAB
236365Oldham East and Saddleworth Phil Woolas72,76561.230.2340.7220.960.000.008.10LABLAB
269332Bolton West Julie Hilling71,25066.841.4245.768.010.000.004.80LABLAB
302299Bury North David Nuttall66,75967.343.3542.607.930.000.006.12CONCON
377223Hazel Grove Andrew Stunell63,07466.637.1120.6538.120.000.004.12LIBLIB
406195Altrincham and Sale West Graham Brady71,25469.352.3330.3314.800.000.002.55CONCON
441160Cheadle Mark Hunter72,45872.544.1917.2236.390.000.002.19LIBCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2010. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.