Greater Manchester: Majority Sorted Seats

This page shows all the seats in Greater Manchester sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Manchester Central, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Cheadle, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Hazel Grove (prediction: LIB), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Bolton West (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Greater Manchester seats with predictions

Lab Seats	Con Seats	Seat	MP at 2010	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	UKIP %	NAT %	MIN %	OTH %	2010 Win	Pred Win
25	567	Manchester Central	Tony Lloyd	90,110	44.3	6.30	61.43	10.76	12.61	0.00	0.00	8.91	LAB	LAB
39	553	Manchester Gorton	Sir Gerald Kaufman	75,933	50.5	5.90	58.67	16.79	10.90	0.00	0.00	7.74	LAB	LAB
40	552	Blackley and Broughton	Graham Stringer	69,489	49.2	9.79	62.32	2.95	12.89	0.00	0.00	12.04	LAB	LAB
67	525	Leigh	Andrew Burnham	76,350	58.1	11.64	57.68	3.77	15.78	0.00	0.00	11.12	LAB	LAB
68	524	Makerfield	Yvonne Fovargue	73,641	59.4	10.04	56.06	3.36	11.20	0.00	7.82	11.51	LAB	LAB
79	513	Denton and Reddish	Andrew Gwynne	64,765	58.1	15.57	60.55	3.72	17.67	0.00	0.00	2.49	LAB	LAB
95	497	Manchester Withington	John Leech	74,371	60.5	5.95	49.01	28.82	12.48	0.00	0.00	3.75	LIB	LAB
101	491	Wigan	Lisa Nandy	75,564	58.4	15.43	57.25	3.20	16.88	0.00	0.00	7.24	LAB	LAB
102	490	Ashton under Lyne	David Heyes	67,564	56.9	15.45	56.98	3.09	15.33	0.00	7.62	1.53	LAB	LAB
107	485	Oldham West and Royton	Michael Meacher	72,651	59.1	14.36	55.40	3.97	15.93	0.00	0.00	10.34	LAB	LAB
119	473	Bolton South East	Yasmin Qureshi	69,928	56.6	16.33	56.33	3.30	15.33	0.00	0.00	8.71	LAB	LAB
125	467	Salford and Eccles	Hazel Blears	75,482	55.0	11.16	50.34	10.47	15.68	0.00	0.00	12.34	LAB	LAB
131	461	Stretford and Urmston	Kate Green	70,091	64.1	19.39	57.84	3.52	15.17	0.00	0.00	4.09	LAB	LAB
135	457	Wythenshawe and Sale East	Paul Goggins	79,923	51.0	16.25	54.38	6.51	16.52	0.00	0.00	6.34	LAB	LAB
140	452	Stockport	Ann Coffey	63,525	61.6	16.04	52.91	9.15	15.28	0.00	0.00	6.63	LAB	LAB
141	451	Rochdale	Simon Danczuk	78,952	58.1	9.68	46.25	18.60	16.97	0.00	0.00	8.50	LAB	LAB
164	428	Heywood and Middleton	Jim Dobbin	80,171	57.5	17.86	50.35	6.87	15.71	0.00	0.00	9.22	LAB	LAB
189	403	Worsley and Eccles South	Barbara Keeley	72,473	57.5	23.21	52.02	3.43	16.52	0.00	0.00	4.82	LAB	LAB
206	386	Bolton North East	David Crausby	67,281	64.3	27.18	53.89	2.70	14.38	0.00	0.00	1.84	LAB	LAB
217	375	Bury South	Ivan Lewis	73,544	65.6	24.30	50.08	3.79	14.45	0.00	0.00	7.38	LAB	LAB
219	373	Stalybridge and Hyde	Jonathan Reynolds	69,037	59.2	23.59	48.89	3.54	15.14	0.00	0.00	8.84	LAB	LAB
222	370	Oldham East and Saddleworth	Phil Woolas	72,765	61.2	17.15	42.10	15.79	16.94	0.00	0.00	8.02	LAB	LAB
264	328	Bolton West	Julie Hilling	71,250	66.8	29.03	47.85	3.57	15.91	0.00	0.00	3.63	LAB	LAB
297	295	Bury North	David Nuttall	66,759	67.3	30.89	44.47	3.54	14.69	0.00	0.00	6.41	CON	LAB
374	217	Hazel Grove	Andrew Stunell	63,074	66.6	24.32	22.71	32.95	18.19	0.00	0.00	1.83	LIB	LIB
395	197	Altrincham and Sale West	Graham Brady	71,254	69.3	39.65	32.66	9.63	16.24	0.00	0.00	1.83	CON	CON
421	171	Cheadle	Mark Hunter	72,458	72.5	31.54	19.61	31.23	15.80	0.00	0.00	1.83	LIB	CON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2010. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.