Yorkshire: Majority Sorted Seats

This page shows all the seats in Yorkshire sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Richmond, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Selby and Ainsty (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Dewsbury (prediction: CON).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Yorkshire seats with predictions

Lab Seats	Con Seats	Seat	MP at 2005	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	NAT %	MIN %	OTH %	2005 Win	Pred Win
39	539	Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford	Yvette Cooper	78,149	54.1	28.60	53.70	7.91	0.00	0.00	9.80	LAB	LAB
58	520	Leeds Central	Hilary Benn	75,357	49.5	26.64	47.09	17.26	0.00	0.43	8.57	LAB	LAB
66	512	Leeds West	John Battle	66,068	53.8	26.73	45.52	11.98	0.00	0.00	15.77	LAB	LAB
95	483	Leeds East	George Mudie	63,155	56.5	34.92	49.22	11.06	0.00	0.00	4.80	LAB	LAB
100	478	Hemsworth	Jon Trickett	70,601	54.8	34.12	47.63	10.93	0.00	0.00	7.31	LAB	LAB
134	444	Morley and Outwood	Colin Challen	70,417	58.4	34.70	40.81	4.51	0.00	10.50	9.48	LAB	LAB
139	439	Bradford East	Terry Rooney	68,264	53.4	29.61	33.59	25.33	0.00	0.00	11.47	LAB	LAB
145	433	York Central	Hugh Bayley	65,745	61.7	36.31	39.39	13.69	0.00	0.00	10.61	LAB	LAB
148	430	Bradford South	Gerry Sutcliffe	66,257	54.1	36.02	38.67	10.16	0.00	0.00	15.15	LAB	LAB
158	420	Huddersfield	Barry Sheerman	62,446	56.8	34.38	35.81	17.90	0.00	0.00	11.92	LAB	LAB
231	347	Batley and Spen	Mike Wood	73,446	62.2	42.47	34.22	10.26	0.00	2.98	10.07	LAB	CON
234	344	Leeds North East	Fabian Hamilton	66,460	65.1	43.58	34.83	15.91	0.00	0.00	5.67	LAB	CON
237	341	Wakefield	Mary Creagh	68,142	58.6	43.03	33.58	14.50	0.00	0.00	8.89	LAB	CON
252	326	Dewsbury	Shahid Malik	75,988	61.2	41.64	30.46	11.37	0.00	7.97	8.56	LAB	CON
256	322	Keighley	Ann Cryer	68,228	67.9	45.62	34.36	8.32	0.00	0.00	11.69	LAB	CON
258	320	Pudsey	Paul Truswell	66,580	65.8	47.09	35.17	12.44	0.00	0.00	5.30	LAB	CON
274	304	Elmet and Rothwell	Colin Burgon	75,553	66.7	48.03	33.80	13.04	0.00	0.26	4.87	LAB	CON
279	299	Halifax	Linda Riordan	64,998	61.2	46.01	31.44	12.54	0.00	0.00	10.01	LAB	CON
302	276	Bradford West	Marsha Singh	65,672	54.8	45.64	27.97	12.53	0.00	0.00	13.86	LAB	CON
305	273	Leeds North West	Greg Mulholland	65,582	62.7	40.11	22.19	30.35	0.00	0.00	7.35	LIB	CON
321	257	Calder Valley	Christine McCafferty	71,188	67.0	48.80	28.19	13.32	0.00	0.00	9.70	LAB	CON
322	256	Colne Valley	Kali Mountford	77,180	65.6	46.00	25.38	18.51	0.00	0.00	10.11	LAB	CON
339	239	Selby and Ainsty	Unknown (changed seat)	69,382	67.1	56.90	34.15	6.47	0.00	0.00	2.48	CON	CON
343	235	Shipley	Philip Davies	68,827	67.9	51.00	27.97	10.65	0.00	0.00	10.38	CON	CON
355	223	Scarborough and Whitby	Robert Goodwill	73,805	63.6	53.40	28.00	11.23	0.00	0.00	7.37	CON	CON
371	207	York Outer	Unknown (changed seat)	71,331	65.6	47.22	16.14	32.77	0.00	0.00	3.87	LIB	CON
407	170	Harrogate and Knaresborough	Phil Willis	74,274	65.4	43.22	4.06	47.89	0.00	0.00	4.83	LIB	LIB
535	43	Skipton and Ripon	David Curry	74,922	66.1	62.06	9.21	20.78	0.00	0.00	7.95	CON	CON
566	12	Thirsk and Malton	John Greenway	75,501	65.5	68.90	10.58	12.33	0.00	0.00	8.18	CON	CON
577	1	Richmond	William Hague	77,905	65.2	72.59	10.51	11.06	0.00	0.00	5.85	CON	CON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2005. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.