Yorkshire: Majority Sorted Seats

This page shows all the seats in Yorkshire sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Richmond, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Selby and Ainsty (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Dewsbury (prediction: CON).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Yorkshire seats with predictions

Lab
Seats
Con
Seats
SeatMP at 2005ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
NAT
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2005
Win
Pred
Win
39539Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford Yvette Cooper78,14954.128.6053.707.910.000.009.80LABLAB
58520Leeds Central Hilary Benn75,35749.526.6447.0917.260.000.438.57LABLAB
66512Leeds West John Battle66,06853.826.7345.5211.980.000.0015.77LABLAB
95483Leeds East George Mudie63,15556.534.9249.2211.060.000.004.80LABLAB
100478Hemsworth Jon Trickett70,60154.834.1247.6310.930.000.007.31LABLAB
134444Morley and Outwood Colin Challen70,41758.434.7040.814.510.0010.509.48LABLAB
139439Bradford East Terry Rooney68,26453.429.6133.5925.330.000.0011.47LABLAB
145433York Central Hugh Bayley65,74561.736.3139.3913.690.000.0010.61LABLAB
148430Bradford South Gerry Sutcliffe66,25754.136.0238.6710.160.000.0015.15LABLAB
158420Huddersfield Barry Sheerman62,44656.834.3835.8117.900.000.0011.92LABLAB
231347Batley and Spen Mike Wood73,44662.242.4734.2210.260.002.9810.07LABCON
234344Leeds North East Fabian Hamilton66,46065.143.5834.8315.910.000.005.67LABCON
237341Wakefield Mary Creagh68,14258.643.0333.5814.500.000.008.89LABCON
252326Dewsbury Shahid Malik75,98861.241.6430.4611.370.007.978.56LABCON
256322Keighley Ann Cryer68,22867.945.6234.368.320.000.0011.69LABCON
258320Pudsey Paul Truswell66,58065.847.0935.1712.440.000.005.30LABCON
274304Elmet and Rothwell Colin Burgon75,55366.748.0333.8013.040.000.264.87LABCON
279299Halifax Linda Riordan64,99861.246.0131.4412.540.000.0010.01LABCON
302276Bradford West Marsha Singh65,67254.845.6427.9712.530.000.0013.86LABCON
305273Leeds North West Greg Mulholland65,58262.740.1122.1930.350.000.007.35LIBCON
321257Calder Valley Christine McCafferty71,18867.048.8028.1913.320.000.009.70LABCON
322256Colne Valley Kali Mountford77,18065.646.0025.3818.510.000.0010.11LABCON
339239Selby and Ainsty Unknown (changed seat)69,38267.156.9034.156.470.000.002.48CONCON
343235Shipley Philip Davies68,82767.951.0027.9710.650.000.0010.38CONCON
355223Scarborough and Whitby Robert Goodwill73,80563.653.4028.0011.230.000.007.37CONCON
371207York Outer Unknown (changed seat)71,33165.647.2216.1432.770.000.003.87LIBCON
407170Harrogate and Knaresborough Phil Willis74,27465.443.224.0647.890.000.004.83LIBLIB
53543Skipton and Ripon David Curry74,92266.162.069.2120.780.000.007.95CONCON
56612Thirsk and Malton John Greenway75,50165.568.9010.5812.330.000.008.18CONCON
5771Richmond William Hague77,90565.272.5910.5111.060.000.005.85CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2005. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.