Humberside: Majority Sorted Seats

This page shows all the seats in Humberside sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, South Holland and The Deepings, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Beverley and Holderness (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Great Grimsby (prediction: CON).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Humberside seats with predictions

Lab
Seats
Con
Seats
SeatMP at 2005ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
NAT
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2005
Win
Pred
Win
10568Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough David Blunkett67,28650.321.4956.9610.140.004.736.67LABLAB
11567Barnsley East Jeff Ennis65,78150.924.5259.279.980.000.006.23LABLAB
22556Wentworth and Dearne John Healey70,78554.424.9054.2011.350.000.009.55LABLAB
49529Sheffield South East Clive Betts67,36254.427.1249.5812.300.000.1710.83LABLAB
50528Rotherham Denis MacShane61,83355.625.0347.4711.260.000.0016.24LABLAB
61517Hull East John Prescott67,95347.426.2045.7713.980.000.0014.06LABLAB
63515Barnsley Central Eric Illsley64,69849.729.3248.7013.460.000.008.52LABLAB
87491Hull North Diana Johnson60,27947.326.4442.0620.360.000.0011.14LABLAB
89489Sheffield Heeley Meg Munn66,13957.427.7942.6215.820.000.0113.77LABLAB
106472Doncaster North Ed Milliband71,69650.832.1243.5311.830.004.088.44LABLAB
111467Hull West and Hessle Alan Johnson61,25945.234.0744.6615.090.000.006.17LABLAB
115463Sheffield Central Richard Caborn61,70854.024.0833.9824.290.004.6013.05LABLAB
129449Doncaster Central Rosie Winterton72,58752.232.5839.2818.150.000.269.73LABLAB
141437Don Valley Caroline Flint71,88754.638.3742.2112.090.001.985.34LABLAB
149429Rother Valley Kevin Barron70,34957.737.0839.4511.170.000.0012.30LABLAB
150428Scunthorpe Elliot Morley64,78452.539.3741.7411.960.000.006.94LABLAB
160418Penistone and Stocksbridge Angela Smith68,36157.736.2937.3118.220.000.227.97LABLAB
168410Great Grimsby Austin Mitchell63,71051.737.0036.6813.560.000.0012.76LABCON
273305Brigg and Goole Ian Cawsey65,24863.249.6735.449.310.000.005.58LABCON
283295Lincoln Gillian Merron69,80557.348.2633.0511.940.000.006.75LABCON
292286Cleethorpes Shona McIsaac70,74561.649.3432.9610.380.000.007.32LABCON
366212Beverley and Holderness Graham Stuart77,41964.853.5025.1813.680.000.007.64CONCON
377201Sheffield Hallam Nick Clegg68,57365.043.139.0839.940.000.147.71LIBCON
387191Boston and Skegness Mark Simmonds73,32358.957.2621.076.510.009.325.84CONCON
391187Grantham and Stamford Quentin Davies72,75163.658.0221.5311.950.000.008.50CONCON
397181Yorkshire East Greg Knight77,06461.358.8121.3513.320.000.006.52CONCON
441137Gainsborough Edward Leigh68,98664.657.7914.8821.030.000.006.30CONCON
444134Louth and Horncastle Sir Peter Tapsell74,95062.158.8915.8413.830.000.0011.44CONCON
468110Sleaford and North Hykeham Douglas Hogg78,90566.962.4216.4213.360.000.007.80CONCON
52157Haltemprice and Howden David Davis68,09670.157.646.1130.960.000.005.29CONCON
55919South Holland and The Deepings John Hayes74,88062.370.1013.318.780.000.007.81CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2005. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.