Humberside: Majority Sorted Seats

This page shows all the seats in Humberside sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, South Holland and The Deepings, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Brigg and Goole (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Lincoln (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Humberside seats with predictions

Lab Seats	Con Seats	Seat	MP at 2010	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	NAT %	MIN %	OTH %	2010 Win	Pred Win
16	576	Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough	David Blunkett	68,186	57.1	12.29	65.34	6.80	0.00	7.78	7.79	LAB	LAB
52	540	Hull East	Karl Turner	67,530	50.6	17.39	58.31	9.61	0.00	0.00	14.70	LAB	LAB
53	539	Sheffield South East	Clive Betts	67,284	61.5	18.20	59.08	10.16	0.00	0.00	12.56	LAB	LAB
56	536	Wentworth and Dearne	John Healey	72,586	58.0	18.22	58.98	5.49	0.00	0.00	17.31	LAB	LAB
57	535	Sheffield Central	Paul Blomfield	69,519	59.6	10.95	51.70	27.75	0.00	0.00	9.60	LAB	LAB
63	529	Barnsley East	Michael Dugher	68,435	56.1	17.22	56.46	6.19	0.00	8.60	11.53	LAB	LAB
70	522	Barnsley Central	Eric Illsley	65,543	56.5	17.96	56.22	5.89	0.00	8.94	10.99	LAB	LAB
88	504	Hull North	Diana Johnson	64,082	52.0	13.92	49.55	24.07	0.00	0.00	12.45	LAB	LAB
90	502	Rotherham	Denis MacShane	63,565	59.0	17.39	52.92	5.45	0.00	10.41	13.83	LAB	LAB
95	497	Sheffield Heeley	Meg Munn	65,869	62.0	18.13	52.97	15.20	0.00	0.00	13.70	LAB	LAB
102	490	Doncaster North	Ed Milliband	72,381	57.3	21.64	55.06	5.07	0.00	6.79	11.44	LAB	LAB
116	476	Hull West and Hessle	Alan Johnson	57,264	55.0	21.00	52.83	11.05	0.00	0.00	15.11	LAB	LAB
156	436	Doncaster Central	Rosie Winterton	75,207	55.5	25.58	50.06	7.89	0.00	0.00	16.47	LAB	LAB
178	414	Rother Valley	Kevin Barron	72,841	64.2	29.10	49.94	5.91	0.00	0.00	15.04	LAB	LAB
207	385	Don Valley	Caroline Flint	73,214	59.3	30.34	46.79	5.83	0.00	0.00	17.04	LAB	LAB
209	383	Penistone and Stocksbridge	Angela Smith	68,501	67.9	32.02	48.13	7.89	0.00	0.00	11.97	LAB	LAB
214	378	Scunthorpe	Nic Dakin	63,089	58.7	33.39	49.02	6.23	0.00	0.00	11.36	LAB	LAB
241	351	Great Grimsby	Austin Mitchell	61,229	53.8	31.35	43.07	9.24	0.00	0.00	16.34	LAB	LAB
264	328	Lincoln	Karl McCartney	73,540	62.2	38.35	45.60	7.06	0.00	0.00	9.00	CON	LAB
300	291	Sheffield Hallam	Nick Clegg	69,378	73.7	24.35	26.46	40.25	0.00	0.00	8.93	LIB	LIB
318	274	Cleethorpes	Martin Vickers	70,214	64.0	42.86	42.01	6.21	0.00	0.00	8.93	CON	CON
341	251	Brigg and Goole	Andrew Percy	67,345	65.1	45.45	40.71	4.98	0.00	0.00	8.86	CON	CON
389	203	Beverley and Holderness	Graham Stuart	79,611	66.8	47.92	31.47	9.52	0.00	3.91	7.18	CON	CON
398	194	Yorkshire East	Greg Knight	80,342	63.8	48.27	30.66	7.97	0.00	0.00	13.09	CON	CON
424	168	Boston and Skegness	Mark Simmonds	70,529	61.1	50.05	28.30	5.04	0.00	9.46	7.16	CON	CON
435	157	Grantham and Stamford	Nicholas Boles	78,000	67.7	51.10	28.37	9.03	0.00	0.00	11.51	CON	CON
437	155	Louth and Horncastle	Sir Peter Tapsell	77,650	65.0	50.45	27.72	8.99	0.00	0.00	12.85	CON	CON
452	140	Gainsborough	Edward Leigh	72,144	68.3	50.08	26.01	14.65	0.00	0.00	9.27	CON	CON
464	128	Haltemprice and Howden	David Davis	70,403	69.2	51.05	26.03	13.25	0.00	0.00	9.67	CON	CON
471	121	Sleaford and North Hykeham	Stephen Phillips	85,550	69.6	52.34	26.30	6.19	0.00	6.39	8.77	CON	CON
570	22	South Holland and The Deepings	John Hayes	76,243	65.8	59.68	22.01	5.27	0.00	0.00	13.04	CON	CON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2010. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.