Humberside: Majority Sorted Seats

This page shows all the seats in Humberside sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, South Holland and The Deepings, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Beverley and Holderness (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Great Grimsby (prediction: CON).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Humberside seats with predictions

Lab Seats	Con Seats	Seat	MP at 2005	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	NAT %	MIN %	OTH %	2005 Win	Pred Win
10	568	Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough	David Blunkett	67,286	50.3	21.49	56.96	10.14	0.00	4.73	6.67	LAB	LAB
11	567	Barnsley East	Jeff Ennis	65,781	50.9	24.52	59.27	9.98	0.00	0.00	6.23	LAB	LAB
22	556	Wentworth and Dearne	John Healey	70,785	54.4	24.90	54.20	11.35	0.00	0.00	9.55	LAB	LAB
49	529	Sheffield South East	Clive Betts	67,362	54.4	27.12	49.58	12.30	0.00	0.17	10.83	LAB	LAB
50	528	Rotherham	Denis MacShane	61,833	55.6	25.03	47.47	11.26	0.00	0.00	16.24	LAB	LAB
61	517	Hull East	John Prescott	67,953	47.4	26.20	45.77	13.98	0.00	0.00	14.06	LAB	LAB
63	515	Barnsley Central	Eric Illsley	64,698	49.7	29.32	48.70	13.46	0.00	0.00	8.52	LAB	LAB
87	491	Hull North	Diana Johnson	60,279	47.3	26.44	42.06	20.36	0.00	0.00	11.14	LAB	LAB
89	489	Sheffield Heeley	Meg Munn	66,139	57.4	27.79	42.62	15.82	0.00	0.01	13.77	LAB	LAB
106	472	Doncaster North	Ed Milliband	71,696	50.8	32.12	43.53	11.83	0.00	4.08	8.44	LAB	LAB
111	467	Hull West and Hessle	Alan Johnson	61,259	45.2	34.07	44.66	15.09	0.00	0.00	6.17	LAB	LAB
115	463	Sheffield Central	Richard Caborn	61,708	54.0	24.08	33.98	24.29	0.00	4.60	13.05	LAB	LAB
129	449	Doncaster Central	Rosie Winterton	72,587	52.2	32.58	39.28	18.15	0.00	0.26	9.73	LAB	LAB
141	437	Don Valley	Caroline Flint	71,887	54.6	38.37	42.21	12.09	0.00	1.98	5.34	LAB	LAB
149	429	Rother Valley	Kevin Barron	70,349	57.7	37.08	39.45	11.17	0.00	0.00	12.30	LAB	LAB
150	428	Scunthorpe	Elliot Morley	64,784	52.5	39.37	41.74	11.96	0.00	0.00	6.94	LAB	LAB
160	418	Penistone and Stocksbridge	Angela Smith	68,361	57.7	36.29	37.31	18.22	0.00	0.22	7.97	LAB	LAB
168	410	Great Grimsby	Austin Mitchell	63,710	51.7	37.00	36.68	13.56	0.00	0.00	12.76	LAB	CON
273	305	Brigg and Goole	Ian Cawsey	65,248	63.2	49.67	35.44	9.31	0.00	0.00	5.58	LAB	CON
283	295	Lincoln	Gillian Merron	69,805	57.3	48.26	33.05	11.94	0.00	0.00	6.75	LAB	CON
292	286	Cleethorpes	Shona McIsaac	70,745	61.6	49.34	32.96	10.38	0.00	0.00	7.32	LAB	CON
366	212	Beverley and Holderness	Graham Stuart	77,419	64.8	53.50	25.18	13.68	0.00	0.00	7.64	CON	CON
377	201	Sheffield Hallam	Nick Clegg	68,573	65.0	43.13	9.08	39.94	0.00	0.14	7.71	LIB	CON
387	191	Boston and Skegness	Mark Simmonds	73,323	58.9	57.26	21.07	6.51	0.00	9.32	5.84	CON	CON
391	187	Grantham and Stamford	Quentin Davies	72,751	63.6	58.02	21.53	11.95	0.00	0.00	8.50	CON	CON
397	181	Yorkshire East	Greg Knight	77,064	61.3	58.81	21.35	13.32	0.00	0.00	6.52	CON	CON
441	137	Gainsborough	Edward Leigh	68,986	64.6	57.79	14.88	21.03	0.00	0.00	6.30	CON	CON
444	134	Louth and Horncastle	Sir Peter Tapsell	74,950	62.1	58.89	15.84	13.83	0.00	0.00	11.44	CON	CON
468	110	Sleaford and North Hykeham	Douglas Hogg	78,905	66.9	62.42	16.42	13.36	0.00	0.00	7.80	CON	CON
521	57	Haltemprice and Howden	David Davis	68,096	70.1	57.64	6.11	30.96	0.00	0.00	5.29	CON	CON
559	19	South Holland and The Deepings	John Hayes	74,880	62.3	70.10	13.31	8.78	0.00	0.00	7.81	CON	CON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2005. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.