West Midlands: Majority Sorted Seats

This page shows all the seats in West Midlands sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Birmingham Ladywood, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Aldridge-Brownhills, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Dudley South (prediction: LAB), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Walsall North (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of West Midlands seats with predictions

Lab Seats	Con Seats	Seat	MP at 2010	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	UKIP %	NAT %	MIN %	OTH %	2010 Win	Pred Win
16	576	Birmingham Ladywood	Shabana Mahmood	73,646	48.7	6.79	64.20	11.70	13.40	0.00	0.00	3.92	LAB	LAB
32	560	Birmingham Hodge Hill	Liam Byrne	75,040	56.6	6.61	60.45	11.95	12.49	0.00	0.00	8.50	LAB	LAB
63	529	Birmingham Perry Barr	Khalid Mahmood	71,304	59.0	12.68	60.22	6.19	16.67	0.00	0.00	4.23	LAB	LAB
77	515	Warley	John Spellar	63,106	60.6	16.16	61.38	3.27	17.68	0.00	0.00	1.51	LAB	LAB
83	509	Coventry North East	Bob Ainsworth	73,035	59.4	13.52	58.14	3.51	14.28	0.00	0.00	10.54	LAB	LAB
144	448	Wolverhampton South East	Pat McFadden	60,450	57.4	19.93	55.95	3.21	18.43	0.00	0.00	2.47	LAB	LAB
154	438	West Bromwich East	Tom Watson	62,824	60.4	20.26	54.27	2.78	12.48	0.00	0.00	10.22	LAB	LAB
158	434	Birmingham Hall Green	Roger Godsiff	76,580	63.6	8.54	41.98	8.83	13.52	0.00	25.12	2.01	LAB	LAB
172	420	West Bromwich West	Adrian Bailey	65,013	55.6	20.71	52.33	2.53	13.73	0.00	9.38	1.31	LAB	LAB
174	418	Coventry North West	Geoffrey Robinson	72,871	63.9	20.69	52.09	3.79	14.62	0.00	0.00	8.82	LAB	LAB
176	416	Birmingham Yardley	John Hemming	72,321	56.5	10.91	42.01	23.79	15.42	0.00	0.00	7.87	LIB	LAB
208	384	Birmingham Erdington	Jack Dromey	66,405	53.5	23.99	50.53	3.41	13.48	0.00	0.00	8.59	LAB	LAB
211	381	Coventry South	Jim Cunningham	73,652	62.4	24.80	51.11	3.81	15.73	0.00	0.00	4.56	LAB	LAB
212	380	Birmingham Selly Oak	Stephen McCabe	74,805	62.2	22.45	48.49	6.50	15.12	0.00	0.00	7.45	LAB	LAB
231	361	Birmingham Northfield	Richard Burden	71,338	58.6	25.00	48.82	3.31	14.17	0.00	0.00	8.70	LAB	LAB
233	359	Wolverhampton North East	Emma Reynolds	59,324	58.8	25.66	49.26	2.85	13.28	0.00	0.00	8.95	LAB	LAB
249	343	Walsall South	Valerie Vaz	64,830	63.1	26.73	47.79	3.04	18.82	0.00	0.00	3.62	LAB	LAB
256	336	Birmingham Edgbaston	Gisela Stuart	68,573	60.6	28.95	49.09	3.25	12.55	0.00	0.00	6.17	LAB	LAB
263	329	Walsall North	David Winnick	65,183	55.5	25.63	44.72	2.77	14.67	0.00	8.10	4.10	LAB	LAB
271	321	Dudley North	Ian Austin	60,838	63.5	28.35	45.56	2.22	17.27	0.00	0.00	6.60	LAB	LAB
282	310	Wolverhampton South West	Paul Uppal	59,160	67.9	32.07	47.63	3.38	14.76	0.00	0.00	2.16	CON	LAB
308	284	Halesowen and Rowley Regis	James Morris	63,693	69.0	32.56	44.86	3.13	16.98	0.00	0.00	2.46	CON	LAB
336	256	Dudley South	Chris Kelly	60,572	63.0	34.48	41.55	3.31	19.13	0.00	0.00	1.53	CON	LAB
340	252	Stourbridge	Margot James	69,637	67.8	34.04	40.51	3.46	15.65	0.00	0.00	6.34	CON	LAB
435	157	Meriden	Caroline Spelman	83,826	62.2	43.05	29.75	3.76	14.42	0.00	0.00	9.02	CON	CON
453	139	Solihull	Lorely Burt	77,863	70.8	33.93	18.81	27.10	14.87	0.00	0.00	5.30	LIB	CON
462	130	Sutton Coldfield	Andrew Mitchell	74,489	67.9	45.34	29.66	3.81	15.02	0.00	0.00	6.17	CON	CON
516	76	Aldridge-Brownhills	Richard Shepherd	59,355	65.1	50.68	28.99	3.74	11.74	0.00	0.00	4.85	CON	CON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2010. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.