West Midlands: Majority Sorted Seats

This page shows all the seats in West Midlands sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Birmingham Ladywood, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Sutton Coldfield, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Aldridge-Brownhills (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Dudley North (prediction: CON).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of West Midlands seats with predictions

Lab Seats	Con Seats	Seat	MP at 2005	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	NAT %	MIN %	OTH %	2005 Win	Pred Win
70	508	Birmingham Ladywood	Clare Short	64,814	48.4	22.33	40.64	24.56	0.00	3.79	8.68	LAB	LAB
90	488	Coventry North East	Bob Ainsworth	72,368	53.2	31.52	46.23	11.82	0.00	0.00	10.43	LAB	LAB
92	486	Birmingham Hodge Hill	Liam Byrne	73,712	51.9	23.94	38.52	18.57	0.00	6.92	12.04	LAB	LAB
96	482	Wolverhampton South East	Pat McFadden	64,529	53.6	33.94	48.17	8.18	0.00	1.91	7.80	LAB	LAB
109	469	West Bromwich East	Tom Watson	62,094	58.5	34.22	45.27	8.86	0.00	6.41	5.24	LAB	LAB
112	466	West Bromwich West	Adrian Bailey	61,361	52.4	33.44	43.97	6.78	0.00	10.63	5.17	LAB	LAB
117	461	Warley	John Spellar	60,953	57.0	34.70	44.51	9.31	0.00	0.11	11.36	LAB	LAB
127	451	Birmingham Erdington	Sion Simon	65,815	49.0	35.08	42.45	11.13	0.00	0.00	11.34	LAB	LAB
132	446	Birmingham Perry Barr	Khalid Mahmood	71,376	54.4	30.52	36.77	19.95	0.00	0.00	12.77	LAB	LAB
144	434	Wolverhampton North East	Ken Purchase	62,823	54.7	40.87	44.11	8.10	0.00	0.00	6.92	LAB	LAB
158	419	Birmingham Yardley	John Hemming	71,381	56.1	23.13	24.42	37.75	0.00	5.51	9.20	LIB	LIB
167	411	Birmingham Hall Green	Roger Godsiff	74,132	56.1	29.55	29.70	21.65	0.00	10.72	8.37	LAB	LAB
170	408	Walsall South	Bruce George	63,501	58.6	39.42	38.78	6.17	0.00	4.72	10.91	LAB	CON
173	405	Walsall North	David Winnick	63,625	53.1	38.78	37.92	8.89	0.00	0.23	14.19	LAB	CON
180	398	Birmingham Northfield	Richard Burden	70,965	57.4	41.14	39.25	9.09	0.00	0.00	10.51	LAB	CON
189	389	Coventry North West	Geoffrey Robinson	70,122	59.4	39.77	37.59	13.01	0.00	0.00	9.63	LAB	CON
204	374	Birmingham Selly Oak	Stephen McCabe	72,511	59.9	42.66	37.82	12.68	0.00	0.00	6.84	LAB	CON
221	357	Coventry South	Jim Cunningham	69,797	59.1	43.07	35.78	12.13	0.00	0.00	9.01	LAB	CON
244	334	Dudley North	Ian Austin	59,900	60.2	43.18	32.71	7.74	0.00	9.32	7.05	LAB	CON
262	316	Dudley South	Ian Pearson	59,833	60.2	46.09	33.61	9.34	0.00	0.00	10.96	LAB	CON
264	314	Halesowen and Rowley Regis	Sylvia Heal	65,669	62.7	48.30	35.55	8.84	0.00	0.00	7.31	LAB	CON
295	283	Wolverhampton South West	Robert Marris	63,906	62.0	49.94	33.18	9.60	0.00	0.00	7.29	LAB	CON
304	274	Birmingham Edgbaston	Gisela Stuart	67,334	57.4	50.65	32.74	9.19	0.00	0.00	7.43	LAB	CON
318	260	Stourbridge	Lynda Waltho	68,378	64.4	51.96	31.72	10.93	0.00	0.00	5.39	LAB	CON
395	183	Aldridge-Brownhills	Richard Shepherd	58,274	64.0	59.42	22.48	8.88	0.00	0.00	9.22	CON	CON
401	177	Meriden	Caroline Spelman	80,213	60.6	60.14	22.06	11.32	0.00	0.00	6.48	CON	CON
447	131	Solihull	Lorely Burt	75,036	67.0	50.85	7.39	34.24	0.00	0.00	7.51	LIB	CON
498	80	Sutton Coldfield	Andrew Mitchell	72,752	63.4	65.10	15.52	11.70	0.00	0.00	7.68	CON	CON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2005. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.