East Midlands: Majority Sorted Seats

This page shows all the seats in East Midlands sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Bolsover, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Derbyshire Dales, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Rugby (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Nuneaton (prediction: CON).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of East Midlands seats with predictions

Lab Seats	Con Seats	Seat	MP at 2005	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	NAT %	MIN %	OTH %	2005 Win	Pred Win
36	542	Bolsover	Dennis Skinner	70,249	57.4	29.83	55.32	12.03	0.00	0.00	2.82	LAB	LAB
75	503	Nottingham North	Graham Allen	64,415	49.2	31.01	48.63	12.13	0.00	0.00	8.23	LAB	LAB
81	497	Leicester East	Keith Vaz	67,434	61.9	31.85	48.77	10.98	0.00	0.00	8.41	LAB	LAB
99	479	Mansfield	Alan Meale	78,135	55.7	28.10	41.95	9.99	0.00	14.92	5.03	LAB	LAB
121	456	Chesterfield	Paul Holmes	72,033	59.7	21.55	30.26	41.28	0.00	0.00	6.91	LIB	LIB
125	453	Derby South	Margaret Beckett	63,330	62.8	31.79	39.46	19.50	0.00	0.00	9.25	LAB	LAB
152	426	Leicester West	Patrica Hewitt	61,261	53.5	37.82	40.01	13.59	0.00	0.00	8.58	LAB	LAB
155	423	Ashfield	Geoff Hoon	74,580	57.5	36.31	38.30	9.75	0.00	0.00	15.63	LAB	LAB
163	415	Nottingham East	John Heppell	59,675	49.7	35.53	36.21	16.25	0.00	0.00	12.01	LAB	LAB
182	396	Derbyshire North East	Natascha Engel	70,271	61.1	39.41	37.37	15.65	0.00	0.00	7.57	LAB	CON
183	395	Sherwood	Paddy Tipping	70,019	62.1	42.57	40.49	10.24	0.00	0.00	6.70	LAB	CON
188	390	Leicester South	Peter Soulsby	72,388	58.6	31.14	28.98	24.63	0.00	0.00	15.25	LAB	CON
201	377	Derby North	Bob Laxton	63,694	63.2	37.71	33.19	21.73	0.00	0.00	7.37	LAB	CON
202	376	Nottingham South	Alan Simpson	67,360	50.5	40.19	35.63	17.46	0.00	0.00	6.71	LAB	CON
208	370	Erewash	Liz Blackman	68,711	64.5	40.93	35.63	9.13	0.00	6.16	8.15	LAB	CON
211	367	Bassetlaw	John Mann	76,203	59.3	47.39	41.37	8.68	0.00	0.00	2.56	LAB	CON
226	352	Warwickshire North	Mike O'Brien	69,292	62.2	44.60	36.68	9.79	0.00	0.00	8.93	LAB	CON
235	343	Amber Valley	Judy Mallaber	68,794	62.9	45.31	36.47	8.52	0.00	0.00	9.70	LAB	CON
238	340	Warwick and Leamington	James Plaskitt	64,949	67.5	45.15	35.60	11.22	0.00	0.00	8.03	LAB	CON
239	339	Nuneaton	Bill Olner	67,112	61.7	46.66	37.09	8.32	0.00	0.00	7.93	LAB	CON
260	318	Leicestershire North West	David Taylor	70,519	66.8	47.41	35.13	8.47	0.00	0.00	8.98	LAB	CON
265	313	Gedling	Vernon Coaker	70,559	63.9	49.12	36.24	9.48	0.00	0.00	5.15	LAB	CON
281	297	High Peak	Tom Levitt	69,483	66.4	47.40	32.55	14.68	0.00	0.00	5.37	LAB	CON
287	291	Derbyshire South	Mark Todd	66,884	65.6	50.55	34.71	8.55	0.00	0.00	6.19	LAB	CON
308	270	Broxtowe	Nick Palmer	69,943	68.6	49.67	31.36	11.31	0.00	0.00	7.66	LAB	CON
314	264	Loughborough	Andy Reed	73,298	63.8	50.09	30.90	12.53	0.00	0.00	6.49	LAB	CON
352	226	Rugby	Jeremy Wright	68,046	67.1	53.87	29.97	12.04	0.00	0.00	4.13	CON	CON
374	204	Derbyshire Mid	Unknown (new seat)	63,939	65.8	57.46	25.09	11.05	0.00	0.53	5.87	CON	CON
375	203	Bosworth	David Tredinnick	75,218	66.3	55.79	22.13	15.28	0.00	0.00	6.81	CON	CON
410	168	Leicestershire South	Andrew Robathan	74,634	65.5	58.65	19.13	13.39	0.00	0.00	8.83	CON	CON
439	139	Charnwood	Stephen Dorrell	71,705	66.4	59.82	17.44	13.18	0.00	0.00	9.55	CON	CON
452	126	Rushcliffe	Kenneth Clarke	68,716	70.5	60.73	16.97	12.18	0.00	0.00	10.12	CON	CON
471	107	Harborough	Edward Garnier	75,159	64.3	55.82	9.39	28.68	0.00	0.00	6.11	CON	CON
486	92	Kenilworth and Southam	Unknown (new seat)	62,919	68.4	64.11	15.87	14.70	0.00	0.00	5.32	CON	CON
501	77	Rutland and Melton	Alan Duncan	76,057	65.0	64.34	14.52	13.02	0.00	0.00	8.13	CON	CON
504	74	Newark	Patrick Mercer	71,881	64.2	66.62	16.26	11.85	0.00	0.00	5.27	CON	CON
549	29	Stratford-on-Avon	John Maples	65,654	68.7	62.28	7.43	21.15	0.00	0.00	9.14	CON	CON
557	21	Derbyshire Dales	Patrick McLoughlin	61,669	68.8	66.53	10.29	17.23	0.00	0.00	5.96	CON	CON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2005. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.