East Midlands: Majority Sorted Seats

This page shows all the seats in East Midlands sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Leicester East, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Stratford-on-Avon, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Rugby (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Broxtowe (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of East Midlands seats with predictions

Lab
Seats
Con
Seats
SeatMP at 2010ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
NAT
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2010
Win
Pred
Win
82510Leicester East Keith Vaz72,98665.825.0161.274.660.000.009.06LABLAB
97495Leicester South Peter Soulsby77,17561.122.1856.1513.460.000.008.21LABLAB
104488Chesterfield Toby Perkins71,87863.816.5649.6024.400.000.009.44LABLAB
105487Bolsover Dennis Skinner72,76660.525.2258.195.090.000.0011.50LABLAB
112480Nottingham North Graham Allen63,24054.225.5257.575.600.000.0011.31LABLAB
120472Nottingham East Christopher Leslie58,70756.424.5255.9310.890.000.008.66LABLAB
154438Derby South Margaret Beckett71,01258.029.3053.917.040.000.009.76LABLAB
169423Bassetlaw John Mann76,54264.834.3656.403.690.003.591.97LABLAB
172420Ashfield Gloria de Piero77,37962.323.0244.2619.860.005.777.08LABLAB
176416Leicester West Elizabeth Kendall64,90055.227.9848.949.200.000.0013.88LABLAB
180412Mansfield Alan Meale80,06960.426.9646.905.070.008.9712.10LABLAB
223369Derbyshire North East Natascha Engel71,42265.933.7948.739.840.000.007.65LABLAB
229363Nottingham South Lillian Greenwood67,44160.533.7747.859.630.000.008.75LABLAB
247345Gedling Vernon Coaker70,59068.337.9049.195.010.000.007.90LABLAB
248344Derby North Chris Williamson71,48463.132.5143.6114.600.000.009.28LABLAB
263329Broxtowe Anna Soubry72,04273.239.7447.235.550.000.007.49CONLAB
270322Sherwood Mark Spencer71,04368.939.8646.674.890.000.008.59CONLAB
276316Amber Valley Nigel Mills70,17165.539.2145.084.740.006.954.02CONLAB
278314Warwickshire North Dan Byles70,14367.440.6646.203.810.000.009.33CONLAB
293299Erewash Jessica Lee69,65468.440.1943.475.750.000.0010.58CONLAB
295297Nuneaton Marcus Jones67,83765.842.1544.995.040.000.007.83CONLAB
302290Loughborough Nicky Morgan77,50268.242.3444.176.010.000.007.48CONLAB
303289Warwick and Leamington Chris White67,80072.343.3345.096.010.000.005.57CONLAB
309283High Peak Andrew Bingham71,97369.941.7242.178.410.000.007.70CONLAB
328264Rugby Mark Pawsey68,91468.944.8541.896.530.000.006.73CONCON
349243Leicestershire North West Andrew Bridgen71,21972.945.2438.885.460.000.0010.42CONCON
350242Derbyshire South Heather Wheeler70,61071.446.1439.755.220.000.008.89CONCON
376216Derbyshire Mid Pauline Latham66,29771.449.1535.047.080.000.008.73CONCON
394198Bosworth David Tredinnick77,29670.243.4426.5519.920.000.0010.09CONCON
403189Leicestershire South Andrew Robathan76,63971.250.3031.447.600.000.0010.67CONCON
411181Charnwood Stephen Dorrell74,47371.950.4330.258.100.000.0011.22CONCON
414178Rushcliffe Kenneth Clarke72,95573.651.9931.308.280.000.008.43CONCON
426166Newark Patrick Mercer71,78571.454.6832.906.570.000.005.86CONCON
439153Derbyshire Dales Patrick McLoughlin63,36773.852.9429.949.040.000.008.09CONCON
478114Harborough Edward Garnier77,91770.549.7723.2717.680.000.009.27CONCON
484108Rutland and Melton Alan Duncan77,18571.551.9424.8612.330.000.0010.86CONCON
50686Kenilworth and Southam Jeremy Wright64,36275.254.3924.9214.220.000.006.47CONCON
53260Stratford-on-Avon Nadhim Zahawi69,51672.752.3720.0815.660.003.658.23CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2010. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.