East Midlands: Majority Sorted Seats

This page shows all the seats in East Midlands sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Leicester East, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Stratford-on-Avon, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to High Peak (prediction: LAB), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Derby North (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of East Midlands seats with predictions

Lab
Seats
Con
Seats
SeatMP at 2010ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
UKIP
%
NAT
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2010
Win
Pred
Win
73519Leicester East Keith Vaz72,98665.815.8961.683.3111.620.000.007.51LABLAB
97495Leicester South Peter Soulsby77,17561.112.8355.3011.5413.940.000.006.38LABLAB
98494Bolsover Dennis Skinner72,76660.516.0558.323.6114.540.000.007.49LABLAB
106486Nottingham North Graham Allen63,24054.216.2857.363.9715.150.000.007.24LABLAB
121471Nottingham East Christopher Leslie58,70756.415.1655.098.9815.850.000.004.92LABLAB
127465Chesterfield Toby Perkins71,87863.89.0248.0122.4914.600.000.005.88LABLAB
161431Derby South Margaret Beckett71,01258.019.9453.075.1216.840.000.005.03LABLAB
167425Bassetlaw John Mann76,54264.825.3657.452.6212.510.000.002.07LABLAB
183409Ashfield Gloria de Piero77,37962.313.6643.4217.9514.350.005.774.84LABLAB
186406Leicester West Elizabeth Kendall64,90055.218.6348.107.2914.880.000.0011.10LABLAB
188404Mansfield Alan Meale80,06960.417.7947.053.5916.760.008.975.84LABLAB
234358Derbyshire North East Natascha Engel71,42265.924.4347.887.9318.020.000.001.74LABLAB
240352Nottingham South Lillian Greenwood67,44160.524.4147.017.7214.790.000.006.07LABLAB
254338Gedling Vernon Coaker70,59068.328.7449.373.5513.550.000.004.79LABLAB
259333Derby North Chris Williamson71,48463.123.1542.7712.6914.260.000.007.13LABLAB
274318Broxtowe Anna Soubry72,04273.230.5147.063.9313.440.000.005.06CONLAB
276316Sherwood Mark Spencer71,04368.930.7146.933.4613.420.000.005.48CONLAB
283309Warwickshire North Dan Byles70,14367.431.6547.172.7011.890.000.006.59CONLAB
286306Amber Valley Nigel Mills70,17165.530.0845.433.3612.170.006.952.00CONLAB
309283Erewash Jessica Lee69,65468.430.9443.174.0813.220.000.008.60CONLAB
310282Nuneaton Marcus Jones67,83765.832.9845.153.5710.560.000.007.74CONLAB
317275Loughborough Nicky Morgan77,50268.233.0543.694.2613.490.000.005.50CONLAB
319273Warwick and Leamington Chris White67,80072.334.0444.614.2613.630.000.003.46CONLAB
328264High Peak Andrew Bingham71,97369.932.3741.336.4915.770.000.004.03CONLAB
346246Rugby Mark Pawsey68,91468.935.5041.084.6313.220.000.005.58CONLAB
361231Derbyshire South Heather Wheeler70,61071.436.9639.793.7013.170.000.006.38CONLAB
362230Leicestershire North West Andrew Bridgen71,21972.936.0238.773.8713.250.000.008.08CONLAB
392200Derbyshire Mid Pauline Latham66,29771.439.7934.205.1715.060.000.005.78CONCON
401191Bosworth David Tredinnick77,29670.234.0925.7118.0114.440.000.007.76CONCON
409183Leicestershire South Andrew Robathan76,63971.240.9430.605.6816.060.000.006.72CONCON
419173Charnwood Stephen Dorrell74,47371.941.0729.406.1915.780.000.007.55CONCON
424168Rushcliffe Kenneth Clarke72,95573.642.6330.456.3716.480.000.004.07CONCON
434158Newark Patrick Mercer71,78571.445.3232.054.6616.230.000.001.74CONCON
447145Derbyshire Dales Patrick McLoughlin63,36773.843.5829.097.1316.220.000.003.98CONCON
483109Harborough Edward Garnier77,91770.540.4122.4315.7715.080.000.006.31CONCON
486106Rutland and Melton Alan Duncan77,18571.542.5924.0210.4216.990.000.005.98CONCON
51082Kenilworth and Southam Jeremy Wright64,36275.245.0424.0712.3114.920.000.003.66CONCON
53260Stratford-on-Avon Nadhim Zahawi69,51672.743.0119.2413.7516.070.000.007.93CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2010. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.