East Midlands: Majority Sorted Seats

This page shows all the seats in East Midlands sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Leicester East, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Stratford-on-Avon, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Rugby (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Broxtowe (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of East Midlands seats with predictions

Lab Seats	Con Seats	Seat	MP at 2010	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	NAT %	MIN %	OTH %	2010 Win	Pred Win
82	510	Leicester East	Keith Vaz	72,986	65.8	25.01	61.27	4.66	0.00	0.00	9.06	LAB	LAB
97	495	Leicester South	Peter Soulsby	77,175	61.1	22.18	56.15	13.46	0.00	0.00	8.21	LAB	LAB
104	488	Chesterfield	Toby Perkins	71,878	63.8	16.56	49.60	24.40	0.00	0.00	9.44	LAB	LAB
105	487	Bolsover	Dennis Skinner	72,766	60.5	25.22	58.19	5.09	0.00	0.00	11.50	LAB	LAB
112	480	Nottingham North	Graham Allen	63,240	54.2	25.52	57.57	5.60	0.00	0.00	11.31	LAB	LAB
120	472	Nottingham East	Christopher Leslie	58,707	56.4	24.52	55.93	10.89	0.00	0.00	8.66	LAB	LAB
154	438	Derby South	Margaret Beckett	71,012	58.0	29.30	53.91	7.04	0.00	0.00	9.76	LAB	LAB
169	423	Bassetlaw	John Mann	76,542	64.8	34.36	56.40	3.69	0.00	3.59	1.97	LAB	LAB
172	420	Ashfield	Gloria de Piero	77,379	62.3	23.02	44.26	19.86	0.00	5.77	7.08	LAB	LAB
176	416	Leicester West	Elizabeth Kendall	64,900	55.2	27.98	48.94	9.20	0.00	0.00	13.88	LAB	LAB
180	412	Mansfield	Alan Meale	80,069	60.4	26.96	46.90	5.07	0.00	8.97	12.10	LAB	LAB
223	369	Derbyshire North East	Natascha Engel	71,422	65.9	33.79	48.73	9.84	0.00	0.00	7.65	LAB	LAB
229	363	Nottingham South	Lillian Greenwood	67,441	60.5	33.77	47.85	9.63	0.00	0.00	8.75	LAB	LAB
247	345	Gedling	Vernon Coaker	70,590	68.3	37.90	49.19	5.01	0.00	0.00	7.90	LAB	LAB
248	344	Derby North	Chris Williamson	71,484	63.1	32.51	43.61	14.60	0.00	0.00	9.28	LAB	LAB
263	329	Broxtowe	Anna Soubry	72,042	73.2	39.74	47.23	5.55	0.00	0.00	7.49	CON	LAB
270	322	Sherwood	Mark Spencer	71,043	68.9	39.86	46.67	4.89	0.00	0.00	8.59	CON	LAB
276	316	Amber Valley	Nigel Mills	70,171	65.5	39.21	45.08	4.74	0.00	6.95	4.02	CON	LAB
278	314	Warwickshire North	Dan Byles	70,143	67.4	40.66	46.20	3.81	0.00	0.00	9.33	CON	LAB
293	299	Erewash	Jessica Lee	69,654	68.4	40.19	43.47	5.75	0.00	0.00	10.58	CON	LAB
295	297	Nuneaton	Marcus Jones	67,837	65.8	42.15	44.99	5.04	0.00	0.00	7.83	CON	LAB
302	290	Loughborough	Nicky Morgan	77,502	68.2	42.34	44.17	6.01	0.00	0.00	7.48	CON	LAB
303	289	Warwick and Leamington	Chris White	67,800	72.3	43.33	45.09	6.01	0.00	0.00	5.57	CON	LAB
309	283	High Peak	Andrew Bingham	71,973	69.9	41.72	42.17	8.41	0.00	0.00	7.70	CON	LAB
328	264	Rugby	Mark Pawsey	68,914	68.9	44.85	41.89	6.53	0.00	0.00	6.73	CON	CON
349	243	Leicestershire North West	Andrew Bridgen	71,219	72.9	45.24	38.88	5.46	0.00	0.00	10.42	CON	CON
350	242	Derbyshire South	Heather Wheeler	70,610	71.4	46.14	39.75	5.22	0.00	0.00	8.89	CON	CON
376	216	Derbyshire Mid	Pauline Latham	66,297	71.4	49.15	35.04	7.08	0.00	0.00	8.73	CON	CON
394	198	Bosworth	David Tredinnick	77,296	70.2	43.44	26.55	19.92	0.00	0.00	10.09	CON	CON
403	189	Leicestershire South	Andrew Robathan	76,639	71.2	50.30	31.44	7.60	0.00	0.00	10.67	CON	CON
411	181	Charnwood	Stephen Dorrell	74,473	71.9	50.43	30.25	8.10	0.00	0.00	11.22	CON	CON
414	178	Rushcliffe	Kenneth Clarke	72,955	73.6	51.99	31.30	8.28	0.00	0.00	8.43	CON	CON
426	166	Newark	Patrick Mercer	71,785	71.4	54.68	32.90	6.57	0.00	0.00	5.86	CON	CON
439	153	Derbyshire Dales	Patrick McLoughlin	63,367	73.8	52.94	29.94	9.04	0.00	0.00	8.09	CON	CON
478	114	Harborough	Edward Garnier	77,917	70.5	49.77	23.27	17.68	0.00	0.00	9.27	CON	CON
484	108	Rutland and Melton	Alan Duncan	77,185	71.5	51.94	24.86	12.33	0.00	0.00	10.86	CON	CON
506	86	Kenilworth and Southam	Jeremy Wright	64,362	75.2	54.39	24.92	14.22	0.00	0.00	6.47	CON	CON
532	60	Stratford-on-Avon	Nadhim Zahawi	69,516	72.7	52.37	20.08	15.66	0.00	3.65	8.23	CON	CON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2010. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.