Severn: Majority Sorted Seats

This page shows all the seats in Severn sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Halton, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Ludlow, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Crewe and Nantwich (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Weaver Vale (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Severn seats with predictions

Lab Seats	Con Seats	Seat	MP at 2010	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	NAT %	MIN %	OTH %	2010 Win	Pred Win
41	551	Halton	Derek Twigg	68,884	60.0	20.76	65.19	4.28	0.00	0.00	9.77	LAB	LAB
132	460	Stoke-on-Trent North	Joan Walley	72,052	55.8	24.58	53.94	5.48	0.00	0.00	15.99	LAB	LAB
143	449	Stoke-on-Trent Central	Tristram Hunt	60,995	53.2	21.89	49.69	7.87	0.00	0.00	20.56	LAB	LAB
149	443	Warrington North	Helen Jones	71,601	61.7	31.07	56.41	6.99	0.00	0.00	5.53	LAB	LAB
188	404	Stoke-on-Trent South	Robert Flello	68,031	58.6	29.07	47.38	4.91	0.00	9.44	9.20	LAB	LAB
199	393	Ellesmere Port and Neston	Andrew Miller	63,097	70.1	35.50	52.83	4.66	0.00	0.00	7.01	LAB	LAB
233	359	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Paul Farrelly	69,433	62.2	35.19	48.60	6.07	0.00	0.00	10.14	LAB	LAB
254	338	Telford	David Wright	65,061	63.5	36.96	47.08	4.79	0.00	0.00	11.17	LAB	LAB
265	327	Warrington South	David Mowat	80,506	68.2	36.64	43.83	13.70	0.00	0.00	5.84	CON	LAB
266	326	Weaver Vale	Graham Evans	66,538	66.1	39.33	46.41	5.77	0.00	0.00	8.50	CON	LAB
288	304	Chester, City of	Stephen Mosley	68,874	67.9	41.40	45.44	5.91	0.00	0.00	7.24	CON	LAB
290	302	Worcester	Robin Walker	72,831	67.2	40.35	44.00	6.02	0.00	0.00	9.63	CON	LAB
304	288	Cannock Chase	Aidan Burley	74,509	61.1	40.82	42.31	5.25	0.00	4.76	6.86	CON	LAB
325	267	Stafford	Jeremy Lefroy	70,587	71.2	44.58	41.89	5.06	0.00	0.00	8.47	CON	CON
336	256	Crewe and Nantwich	Edward Timpson	77,460	65.9	46.48	42.15	4.64	0.00	0.00	6.73	CON	CON
337	255	Redditch	Karen Lumley	68,550	64.2	44.22	39.82	5.45	0.00	0.00	10.51	CON	CON
340	252	Burton	Andrew Griffiths	74,874	66.5	45.20	40.48	4.90	0.00	0.00	9.41	CON	CON
343	249	Tamworth	Christopher Pincher	72,693	63.8	46.47	41.46	5.01	0.00	0.00	7.06	CON	CON
352	240	Staffordshire Moorlands	Karen Bradley	62,071	70.6	45.88	39.01	5.18	0.00	0.00	9.93	CON	CON
365	227	Wrekin, The	Mark Pritchard	65,544	70.1	48.43	36.61	5.40	0.00	0.00	9.56	CON	CON
367	225	Bromsgrove	Sajid Javid	73,086	70.6	44.52	32.44	6.07	0.00	0.00	16.97	CON	CON
371	221	Shrewsbury and Atcham	Daniel Kawczynski	75,438	70.3	44.80	31.44	15.16	0.00	0.00	8.60	CON	CON
391	201	Macclesfield	David Rutley	73,417	68.2	47.80	31.17	9.25	0.00	0.00	11.78	CON	CON
392	200	Wyre Forest	Mark Garnier	76,711	66.4	37.42	20.78	3.67	0.00	31.73	6.39	CON	CON
402	190	Congleton	Fiona Bruce	73,692	68.9	46.63	28.09	18.07	0.00	0.00	7.21	CON	CON
408	184	Stone	William Cash	66,979	70.5	51.43	31.55	8.63	0.00	0.00	8.39	CON	CON
409	183	Eddisbury	Stephen O'Brien	65,306	69.5	52.53	32.43	8.69	0.00	0.00	6.35	CON	CON
443	149	Shropshire North	Owen Paterson	78,926	65.7	52.31	29.00	7.14	0.00	0.00	11.56	CON	CON
457	135	Staffordshire South	Gavin Williamson	73,390	68.7	53.91	29.39	5.17	0.00	0.00	11.54	CON	CON
458	134	Lichfield	Michael Fabricant	72,586	71.0	55.24	30.70	6.29	0.00	0.00	7.76	CON	CON
486	106	Tatton	George Osborne	65,689	68.9	55.43	28.12	8.74	0.00	0.00	7.72	CON	CON
499	93	Hereford and South Herefordshire	Jesse Norman	71,435	67.7	47.08	18.11	27.29	0.00	0.00	7.52	CON	CON
508	84	Worcestershire Mid	Peter Luff	72,171	70.6	55.37	25.81	9.57	0.00	0.00	9.25	CON	CON
543	49	Worcestershire West	Harriett Baldwin	73,270	73.8	51.15	17.63	24.01	0.00	0.00	7.20	CON	CON
550	42	Herefordshire North	Bill Wiggin	66,525	71.5	52.63	17.96	17.19	0.00	5.68	6.55	CON	CON
561	31	Ludlow	Philip Dunne	66,631	73.1	53.63	17.58	18.96	0.00	4.36	5.47	CON	CON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2010. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.