Severn: Majority Sorted Seats

This page shows all the seats in Severn sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Halton, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Herefordshire North, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Chester, City of (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Weaver Vale (prediction: CON).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Severn seats with predictions

Lab
Seats
Con
Seats
SeatMP at 2005ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
NAT
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2005
Win
Pred
Win
55523Halton Derek Twigg68,80353.432.2852.9511.670.000.003.10LABLAB
102476Stoke-on-Trent North Joan Walley70,68255.232.1645.1810.440.000.0012.22LABLAB
104474Stoke-on-Trent Central Mark Fisher59,25048.730.1641.9413.030.000.2914.58LABLAB
130448Warrington North Helen Jones72,16255.436.0442.7213.260.000.007.98LABLAB
166412Stoke-on-Trent South Robert Flello67,85153.636.3436.5310.600.008.877.66LABLAB
179399Cannock Chase Tony Wright72,40457.441.9340.1410.040.000.007.88LABCON
193385Newcastle-under-Lyme Paul Farrelly68,41458.238.0735.0013.300.000.0013.63LABCON
217361Crewe and Nantwich Gwyneth Dunwoody75,56060.144.9238.1512.430.000.004.51LABCON
219359Ellesmere Port and Neston Andrew Miller68,18161.745.1738.2710.950.000.005.60LABCON
230348Telford David Wright63,67658.445.5637.329.760.000.007.36LABCON
246332Weaver Vale Mike Hall67,64957.445.5334.8214.310.000.005.35LABCON
289289Warrington South Helen Southworth76,91461.446.5730.6417.920.000.004.86LABCON
290288Worcester Michael Foster72,38664.147.5331.4911.450.000.009.53LABCON
294284Tamworth Brian Jenkins71,67661.049.0232.619.930.000.008.44LABCON
296282Burton Janet Dean73,77261.048.7831.988.800.000.0010.44LABCON
299279Redditch Jacqui Smith65,97063.050.6033.429.990.000.005.99LABCON
307271Stafford David Kidney71,55864.851.3833.149.550.000.005.93LABCON
331247Chester, City of Christine Russell68,85564.350.0528.5615.970.000.005.42LABCON
353225Wrekin, The Mark Pritchard62,89666.953.6729.3910.670.000.006.27CONCON
358220Staffordshire Moorlands Unknown (changed seat)61,89463.251.4125.5510.360.000.0012.67CONCON
361217Wyre Forest Dr Richard Taylor75,56364.339.4212.334.230.0038.575.45MINCON
363215Shrewsbury and Atcham Daniel Kawczynski73,19368.751.0323.7316.910.000.008.33CONCON
407171Eddisbury Stephen O'Brien66,46763.260.7221.5713.430.000.004.28CONCON
412166Lichfield Michael Fabricant70,34766.361.2121.4511.170.000.006.17CONCON
429149Staffordshire South Patrick Cormack72,71560.261.9820.679.920.000.007.43CONCON
431147Congleton Lady Ann Winterton72,77264.158.7317.3520.950.000.002.97CONCON
445133Stone William Cash65,29666.861.1917.8015.110.000.005.90CONCON
449129Bromsgrove Julie Kirkbride70,76267.663.1519.5510.580.000.006.72CONCON
458120Macclesfield Sir Nicholas Winterton72,53963.162.8418.6013.750.000.004.80CONCON
462116Hereford and South Herefordshire Paul Keetch69,84765.349.835.0137.820.000.007.35LIBCON
478100Shropshire North Owen Paterson73,48263.362.8515.5213.870.000.007.76CONCON
49286Ludlow Philip Dunne64,57172.154.475.1434.780.000.005.60CONCON
51365Worcestershire Mid Peter Luff70,25667.364.5613.5414.510.000.007.40CONCON
51662Tatton George Osborne64,56164.564.8313.6115.620.000.005.94CONCON
52553Worcestershire West Sir Michael Spicer72,41168.856.795.0532.070.000.006.09CONCON
54830Herefordshire North Bill Wiggin65,69067.662.067.4320.290.000.0010.22CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2005. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.