Severn: Majority Sorted Seats

This page shows all the seats in Severn sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Halton, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Herefordshire North, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Chester, City of (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Weaver Vale (prediction: CON).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Severn seats with predictions

Lab Seats	Con Seats	Seat	MP at 2005	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	NAT %	MIN %	OTH %	2005 Win	Pred Win
55	523	Halton	Derek Twigg	68,803	53.4	32.28	52.95	11.67	0.00	0.00	3.10	LAB	LAB
102	476	Stoke-on-Trent North	Joan Walley	70,682	55.2	32.16	45.18	10.44	0.00	0.00	12.22	LAB	LAB
104	474	Stoke-on-Trent Central	Mark Fisher	59,250	48.7	30.16	41.94	13.03	0.00	0.29	14.58	LAB	LAB
130	448	Warrington North	Helen Jones	72,162	55.4	36.04	42.72	13.26	0.00	0.00	7.98	LAB	LAB
166	412	Stoke-on-Trent South	Robert Flello	67,851	53.6	36.34	36.53	10.60	0.00	8.87	7.66	LAB	LAB
179	399	Cannock Chase	Tony Wright	72,404	57.4	41.93	40.14	10.04	0.00	0.00	7.88	LAB	CON
193	385	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Paul Farrelly	68,414	58.2	38.07	35.00	13.30	0.00	0.00	13.63	LAB	CON
217	361	Crewe and Nantwich	Gwyneth Dunwoody	75,560	60.1	44.92	38.15	12.43	0.00	0.00	4.51	LAB	CON
219	359	Ellesmere Port and Neston	Andrew Miller	68,181	61.7	45.17	38.27	10.95	0.00	0.00	5.60	LAB	CON
230	348	Telford	David Wright	63,676	58.4	45.56	37.32	9.76	0.00	0.00	7.36	LAB	CON
246	332	Weaver Vale	Mike Hall	67,649	57.4	45.53	34.82	14.31	0.00	0.00	5.35	LAB	CON
289	289	Warrington South	Helen Southworth	76,914	61.4	46.57	30.64	17.92	0.00	0.00	4.86	LAB	CON
290	288	Worcester	Michael Foster	72,386	64.1	47.53	31.49	11.45	0.00	0.00	9.53	LAB	CON
294	284	Tamworth	Brian Jenkins	71,676	61.0	49.02	32.61	9.93	0.00	0.00	8.44	LAB	CON
296	282	Burton	Janet Dean	73,772	61.0	48.78	31.98	8.80	0.00	0.00	10.44	LAB	CON
299	279	Redditch	Jacqui Smith	65,970	63.0	50.60	33.42	9.99	0.00	0.00	5.99	LAB	CON
307	271	Stafford	David Kidney	71,558	64.8	51.38	33.14	9.55	0.00	0.00	5.93	LAB	CON
331	247	Chester, City of	Christine Russell	68,855	64.3	50.05	28.56	15.97	0.00	0.00	5.42	LAB	CON
353	225	Wrekin, The	Mark Pritchard	62,896	66.9	53.67	29.39	10.67	0.00	0.00	6.27	CON	CON
358	220	Staffordshire Moorlands	Unknown (changed seat)	61,894	63.2	51.41	25.55	10.36	0.00	0.00	12.67	CON	CON
361	217	Wyre Forest	Dr Richard Taylor	75,563	64.3	39.42	12.33	4.23	0.00	38.57	5.45	MIN	CON
363	215	Shrewsbury and Atcham	Daniel Kawczynski	73,193	68.7	51.03	23.73	16.91	0.00	0.00	8.33	CON	CON
407	171	Eddisbury	Stephen O'Brien	66,467	63.2	60.72	21.57	13.43	0.00	0.00	4.28	CON	CON
412	166	Lichfield	Michael Fabricant	70,347	66.3	61.21	21.45	11.17	0.00	0.00	6.17	CON	CON
429	149	Staffordshire South	Patrick Cormack	72,715	60.2	61.98	20.67	9.92	0.00	0.00	7.43	CON	CON
431	147	Congleton	Lady Ann Winterton	72,772	64.1	58.73	17.35	20.95	0.00	0.00	2.97	CON	CON
445	133	Stone	William Cash	65,296	66.8	61.19	17.80	15.11	0.00	0.00	5.90	CON	CON
449	129	Bromsgrove	Julie Kirkbride	70,762	67.6	63.15	19.55	10.58	0.00	0.00	6.72	CON	CON
458	120	Macclesfield	Sir Nicholas Winterton	72,539	63.1	62.84	18.60	13.75	0.00	0.00	4.80	CON	CON
462	116	Hereford and South Herefordshire	Paul Keetch	69,847	65.3	49.83	5.01	37.82	0.00	0.00	7.35	LIB	CON
478	100	Shropshire North	Owen Paterson	73,482	63.3	62.85	15.52	13.87	0.00	0.00	7.76	CON	CON
492	86	Ludlow	Philip Dunne	64,571	72.1	54.47	5.14	34.78	0.00	0.00	5.60	CON	CON
513	65	Worcestershire Mid	Peter Luff	70,256	67.3	64.56	13.54	14.51	0.00	0.00	7.40	CON	CON
516	62	Tatton	George Osborne	64,561	64.5	64.83	13.61	15.62	0.00	0.00	5.94	CON	CON
525	53	Worcestershire West	Sir Michael Spicer	72,411	68.8	56.79	5.05	32.07	0.00	0.00	6.09	CON	CON
548	30	Herefordshire North	Bill Wiggin	65,690	67.6	62.06	7.43	20.29	0.00	0.00	10.22	CON	CON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2005. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.