Wales: Majority Sorted Seats

This page shows all the seats in Wales sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Rhondda, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Montgomeryshire, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Preseli Pembrokeshire (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Cardiff North (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Wales seats with predictions

Lab Seats	Con Seats	Seat	MP at 2010	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	NAT %	MIN %	OTH %	2010 Win	Pred Win
10	582	Rhondda	Chris Bryant	51,554	60.3	6.90	61.55	2.71	18.12	8.36	2.36	LAB	LAB
22	570	Blaenau Gwent	Nick Smith	52,438	61.8	7.46	58.35	2.58	4.11	19.94	7.57	LAB	LAB
27	565	Cynon Valley	Ann Clwyd	50,656	59.0	10.71	60.58	3.50	20.30	3.35	1.56	LAB	LAB
34	558	Merthyr Tydfil And Rhymney	Dai Havard	54,715	58.6	8.43	55.40	16.11	5.05	5.75	9.25	LAB	LAB
36	556	Swansea East	Sian James	59,823	54.6	15.60	62.21	4.65	6.67	5.25	5.62	LAB	LAB
37	555	Aberavon	Hywel Francis	50,789	61.0	14.99	61.46	4.13	7.10	4.12	8.19	LAB	LAB
38	554	Ogmore	Huw Irranca-Davies	55,527	62.4	16.27	62.71	3.86	9.60	3.58	3.97	LAB	LAB
50	542	Neath	Peter Hain	57,186	64.9	13.74	55.01	3.79	19.93	3.62	3.92	LAB	LAB
54	538	Islwyn	Christopher Evans	54,826	63.3	14.47	55.29	2.63	13.02	4.31	10.28	LAB	LAB
87	505	Caerphilly	Wayne David	62,134	62.3	17.79	53.54	3.74	16.70	4.23	4.02	LAB	LAB
98	494	Llanelli	Nia Griffith	55,637	67.3	14.84	48.60	2.65	29.94	2.79	1.18	LAB	LAB
99	493	Torfaen	Paul Murphy	61,178	61.5	20.80	54.52	4.23	5.33	4.40	10.72	LAB	LAB
101	491	Pontypridd	Owen Smith	58,219	63.0	17.09	50.51	16.26	7.29	3.35	5.49	LAB	LAB
151	441	Newport East	Jessica Morden	54,437	63.3	23.90	48.73	17.29	2.10	3.39	4.59	LAB	LAB
153	439	Swansea West	Geraint Davies	61,334	58.0	21.73	46.39	18.32	4.04	2.56	6.97	LAB	LAB
168	424	Wrexham	Ian Lucas	50,872	64.8	26.31	48.61	10.87	6.15	3.44	4.61	LAB	LAB
171	421	Cardiff South and Penarth	Alun Michael	73,704	60.2	29.21	50.64	7.34	4.17	2.58	6.06	LAB	LAB
174	418	Cardiff West	Kevin Brennan	62,787	65.2	30.45	51.54	4.46	7.00	2.73	3.82	LAB	LAB
175	417	Arfon	Hywel Williams	41,198	63.3	17.58	38.65	3.57	35.98	0.00	4.22	NAT	LAB
192	400	Cardiff Central	Jenny Willott	61,162	59.1	22.49	40.50	26.51	3.45	2.12	4.94	LIB	LAB
194	398	Newport West	Paul Flynn	62,111	64.0	33.10	50.99	4.21	2.82	2.98	5.89	LAB	LAB
197	395	Clwyd South	Susan Elan Jones	53,748	64.5	31.00	48.47	4.37	8.68	3.17	4.31	LAB	LAB
202	390	Alyn and Deeside	Mark Tami	60,931	65.5	33.11	50.33	4.65	3.88	3.43	4.60	LAB	LAB
205	387	Gower	Martin Caton	61,696	67.5	32.87	49.63	4.85	6.62	2.31	3.73	LAB	LAB
206	386	Bridgend	Madeleine Moon	58,700	65.3	31.34	48.07	7.66	5.92	2.66	4.36	LAB	LAB
222	370	Ynys Mon	Albert Owen	50,075	68.8	22.83	37.77	1.91	26.21	6.46	4.81	LAB	LAB
225	367	Delyn	David Hanson	53,470	69.2	35.35	49.90	3.95	4.99	2.28	3.53	LAB	LAB
232	360	Vale of Clwyd	Chris Ruane	55,781	63.7	35.78	49.65	3.20	5.82	2.33	3.23	LAB	LAB
249	342	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Jonathan Edwards	52,385	72.6	22.93	33.59	3.08	35.64	3.38	1.37	NAT	NAT
257	335	Cardiff North	Jonathan Evans	65,553	72.7	38.34	47.84	4.65	3.33	2.37	3.47	CON	LAB
281	310	Ceredigion	Mark Williams	59,043	64.8	12.47	17.51	35.11	28.27	2.55	4.09	LIB	LIB
316	276	Vale of Glamorgan	Alun Cairns	70,262	69.3	42.49	41.87	3.87	5.48	3.14	3.15	CON	CON
320	272	Aberconwy	Guto Bebb	44,593	67.2	36.70	35.81	4.91	17.82	0.00	4.75	CON	CON
322	269	Dwyfor Meirionnydd	Elfyn Llwyd	45,354	63.7	22.86	21.09	3.11	44.33	4.53	4.07	NAT	NAT
323	269	Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South	Simon Hart	57,519	70.4	41.65	39.74	3.07	10.45	2.83	2.27	CON	CON
335	257	Preseli Pembrokeshire	Stephen Crabb	57,419	69.0	43.45	39.69	3.70	9.23	2.29	1.65	CON	CON
358	234	Clwyd West	David Jones	57,913	65.8	42.24	33.63	3.87	15.39	2.27	2.60	CON	CON
366	226	Monmouth	David Davies	62,768	74.1	49.18	37.27	4.93	2.74	2.42	3.46	CON	CON
382	210	Brecon and Radnorshire	Roger Williams	53,589	72.5	37.42	22.28	31.24	2.55	2.26	4.26	LIB	CON
445	147	Montgomeryshire	Glyn Davies	48,730	69.4	42.25	18.85	22.91	8.29	3.34	4.36	CON	CON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2010. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.