Wales: Majority Sorted Seats

This page shows all the seats in Wales sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Rhondda, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Brecon and Radnorshire, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Cardiff North (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Newport West (prediction: CON).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Wales seats with predictions

Lab Seats	Con Seats	Seat	MP at 2005	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	NAT %	MIN %	OTH %	2005 Win	Pred Win
4	574	Rhondda	Chris Bryant	51,041	61.0	16.58	57.68	7.36	15.91	0.00	2.46	LAB	LAB
14	564	Cynon Valley	Ann Clwyd	49,354	58.9	19.33	52.55	9.11	13.54	0.00	5.46	LAB	LAB
16	562	Islwyn	Don Touhig	55,039	60.8	22.09	54.17	8.42	12.69	0.00	2.63	LAB	LAB
23	555	Merthyr Tydfil And Rhymney	Dai Havard	54,578	54.9	20.82	50.11	9.83	9.92	0.00	9.32	LAB	LAB
29	549	Aberavon	Hywel Francis	51,079	58.9	21.99	49.68	9.66	11.78	0.00	6.88	LAB	LAB
42	536	Ogmore	Huw Irranca-Davies	55,230	57.9	25.73	50.30	10.10	10.67	0.00	3.20	LAB	LAB
48	530	Swansea East	Sian James	58,813	52.4	23.40	46.24	14.19	6.90	0.00	9.26	LAB	LAB
59	519	Pontypridd	Kim Howells	55,960	60.9	24.59	44.87	12.95	11.42	0.00	6.17	LAB	LAB
65	513	Caerphilly	Wayne David	62,496	58.6	25.94	44.98	7.15	17.83	0.00	4.10	LAB	LAB
67	511	Neath	Peter Hain	57,596	62.2	23.49	42.21	10.04	17.10	0.00	7.16	LAB	LAB
68	510	Torfaen	Paul Murphy	60,670	59.3	28.10	46.53	11.09	6.23	3.18	4.86	LAB	LAB
107	471	Llanelli	Nia Griffith	55,680	63.5	25.31	36.58	9.04	26.48	0.00	2.59	LAB	LAB
112	465	Blaenau Gwent	Peter Law	53,300	66.1	11.84	21.92	3.01	2.38	58.17	2.67	MIN	MIN
145	432	Ynys Mon	Albert Owen	52,517	67.5	21.18	24.25	4.80	31.13	14.70	3.94	LAB	NAT
151	427	Wrexham	Ian Lucas	48,016	63.3	33.35	35.68	17.67	5.73	0.00	7.57	LAB	LAB
154	424	Swansea West	Alan Williams	57,946	57.1	29.31	31.44	22.97	6.50	2.23	7.56	LAB	LAB
158	419	Cardiff Central	Jenny Willott	61,002	59.2	22.58	23.94	43.85	3.52	0.00	6.11	LIB	LIB
164	414	Alyn and Deeside	Mark Tami	58,936	60.2	37.93	38.46	12.23	3.71	0.00	7.67	LAB	LAB
176	401	Arfon	Unknown (changed seat)	42,304	61.2	26.56	25.26	8.73	34.64	0.00	4.81	LAB	NAT
177	401	Cardiff South and Penarth	Alun Michael	68,996	56.9	37.12	35.74	13.99	5.24	0.00	7.91	LAB	CON
181	397	Newport East	Jessica Morden	54,956	57.9	36.78	34.84	17.79	3.84	0.00	6.75	LAB	CON
187	391	Clwyd South	Martyn Jones	49,768	62.9	37.83	35.68	10.59	8.85	0.00	7.05	LAB	CON
190	388	Cardiff West	Kevin Brennan	64,977	58.0	36.01	33.67	12.55	12.54	0.00	5.23	LAB	CON
196	382	Delyn	David Hanson	52,767	64.4	38.99	35.33	12.58	7.43	0.00	5.67	LAB	CON
210	367	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Adam Price	52,154	71.6	24.04	18.22	6.60	46.39	0.00	4.75	NAT	NAT
214	364	Bridgend	Madeleine Moon	58,178	59.2	39.06	32.86	16.41	6.21	0.00	5.45	LAB	CON
216	362	Gower	Martin Caton	60,934	64.9	38.46	32.08	12.96	7.81	0.00	8.69	LAB	CON
224	354	Vale of Clwyd	Chris Ruane	52,518	62.2	43.10	35.45	8.23	7.25	0.00	5.97	LAB	CON
227	351	Newport West	Paul Flynn	60,286	59.3	42.39	34.46	12.59	3.57	0.00	6.98	LAB	CON
294	283	Ceredigion	Mark Williams	53,145	67.2	22.31	5.79	30.67	35.92	0.00	5.31	LIB	NAT
297	280	Dwyfor Meirionnydd	Elfyn Llwyd	48,284	61.1	26.58	9.71	8.64	50.07	0.00	5.00	NAT	NAT
301	277	Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South	Nick Ainger	56,984	67.4	43.74	26.16	10.22	14.78	0.00	5.10	LAB	CON
303	275	Vale of Glamorgan	John Smith	68,245	68.5	48.85	30.95	9.17	5.38	0.00	5.66	LAB	CON
319	259	Aberconwy	Betty Williams	43,230	62.2	42.80	22.53	14.81	12.40	0.00	7.47	LAB	CON
327	251	Cardiff North	Julie Morgan	64,341	70.5	49.53	28.66	13.15	4.27	0.00	4.39	LAB	CON
338	240	Clwyd West	David Jones	56,370	64.0	47.63	25.05	9.64	11.36	0.00	6.32	CON	CON
350	228	Preseli Pembrokeshire	Stephen Crabb	56,441	69.5	48.03	24.35	9.04	12.70	0.00	5.88	CON	CON
372	205	Montgomeryshire	Lembit Opik	48,084	64.3	37.47	5.85	44.42	6.90	0.00	5.37	LIB	LIB
373	205	Monmouth	David Davies	63,093	72.4	58.46	26.58	9.01	2.18	0.00	3.77	CON	CON
405	173	Brecon and Radnorshire	Roger Williams	55,171	69.5	45.85	7.23	38.87	3.67	0.00	4.38	LIB	CON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2005. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.