Essex: Majority Sorted Seats

This page shows all the seats in Essex sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Thurrock, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Buckingham, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Harlow (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Thurrock (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Essex seats with predictions

Lab Seats	Con Seats	Seat	MP at 2010	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	NAT %	MIN %	OTH %	2010 Win	Pred Win
282	310	Thurrock	Jackie Doyle-Price	77,758	58.9	37.25	42.21	3.59	0.00	7.90	9.06	CON	LAB
305	287	Watford	Richard Harrington	80,798	68.3	35.76	37.17	19.07	0.00	0.00	8.00	CON	LAB
312	280	Stevenage	Stephen McPartland	68,937	64.8	42.09	42.10	5.58	0.00	0.00	10.22	CON	LAB
319	273	Milton Keynes South	Iain Stewart	90,487	61.2	42.35	41.48	5.93	0.00	0.00	10.24	CON	CON
339	253	Harlow	Robert Halfon	67,439	65.1	45.43	40.79	4.58	0.00	0.00	9.20	CON	CON
351	241	Basildon South and East Thurrock	Stephen Metcalfe	71,815	62.3	44.41	37.95	4.48	0.00	5.90	7.26	CON	CON
354	238	Milton Keynes North	Mark Lancaster	85,841	62.8	44.27	37.29	8.78	0.00	0.00	9.66	CON	CON
363	228	Colchester	Bob Russell	74,062	62.3	33.69	22.77	34.72	0.00	0.00	8.82	LIB	LIB
372	220	St Albans	Anne Main	70,058	75.4	41.57	28.04	23.10	0.00	0.00	7.29	CON	CON
395	197	Rochford and Southend East	James Duddridge	71,080	58.6	47.65	30.47	6.51	0.00	0.00	15.36	CON	CON
397	195	Harwich and North Essex	Bernard Jenkin	70,743	69.3	47.76	30.40	10.29	0.00	0.00	11.55	CON	CON
407	185	Hemel Hempstead	Michael Penning	72,754	68.0	50.79	31.27	9.58	0.00	0.00	8.37	CON	CON
423	169	Wycombe	Steven Baker	74,502	64.6	49.46	27.75	15.50	0.00	0.00	7.29	CON	CON
425	167	Clacton	Douglas Carswell	67,194	64.2	53.55	31.80	4.34	0.00	0.00	10.30	CON	CON
429	163	Basildon and Billericay	John Baron	65,482	63.5	53.38	31.28	5.28	0.00	4.65	5.42	CON	CON
440	152	Southend West	David Amess	66,527	65.5	46.88	23.87	16.10	0.00	0.00	13.15	CON	CON
448	144	Braintree	Brooks Newmark	71,162	69.1	53.41	29.70	6.30	0.00	0.00	10.59	CON	CON
455	137	Witham	Priti Patel	66,750	70.2	53.01	28.81	6.63	0.00	0.00	11.56	CON	CON
461	131	Castle Point	Rebecca Harris	67,284	66.9	44.37	19.59	3.15	0.00	27.04	5.85	CON	CON
467	125	Chelmsford	Simon Burns	77,529	70.4	46.99	21.41	23.52	0.00	0.00	8.08	CON	CON
487	105	Hertfordshire North East	Oliver Heald	72,200	69.8	54.35	26.90	10.11	0.00	0.00	8.64	CON	CON
489	103	Welwyn Hatfield	Grant Shapps	72,058	68.0	57.63	29.93	5.49	0.00	0.00	6.95	CON	CON
498	94	Hertsmere	James Clappison	73,062	64.7	56.72	27.85	5.83	0.00	0.00	9.61	CON	CON
512	80	Aylesbury	David Liddington	77,934	68.2	52.99	23.05	15.15	0.00	6.80	2.02	CON	CON
514	78	Epping Forest	Eleanor Laing	72,198	64.5	54.80	24.71	8.21	0.00	0.00	12.28	CON	CON
517	75	Hertford and Stortford	Mark Prisk	78,459	70.6	54.65	24.22	12.66	0.00	0.00	8.47	CON	CON
528	64	Hitchin and Harpenden	Peter Lilley	73,851	74.1	55.41	24.01	13.39	0.00	0.00	7.19	CON	CON
538	54	Hertfordshire South West	David Gauke	78,248	72.5	55.04	21.96	14.64	0.00	0.00	8.36	CON	CON
551	41	Broxbourne	Charles Walker	71,391	64.0	59.34	24.60	4.49	0.00	0.00	11.57	CON	CON
560	32	Rayleigh and Wickford	Mark Francois	75,905	69.0	58.42	22.39	5.07	0.00	0.00	14.12	CON	CON
562	30	Saffron Walden	Sir Alan Haselhurst	76,035	71.5	56.28	20.18	14.14	0.00	0.00	9.40	CON	CON
568	24	Brentwood and Ongar	Eric Pickles	73,224	69.1	57.73	20.32	10.17	0.00	4.03	7.75	CON	CON
572	20	Maldon	John Whittingdale	68,861	69.6	60.63	22.78	6.48	0.00	0.00	10.11	CON	CON
581	11	Beaconsfield	Dominic Grieve	74,982	70.0	61.86	21.92	6.56	0.00	4.95	4.71	CON	CON
590	2	Chesham and Amersham	Cheryl Gillan	70,333	74.6	61.18	16.07	15.21	0.00	4.06	3.48	CON	CON
591	1	Buckingham	John Bercow	74,996	64.5	47.29	0.00	0.00	0.00	21.37	31.33	CON	CON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2010. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.