Essex: Majority Sorted Seats

This page shows all the seats in Essex sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Thurrock, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Buckingham, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Milton Keynes South (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Thurrock (prediction: CON).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Essex seats with predictions

Lab Seats	Con Seats	Seat	MP at 2005	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	NAT %	MIN %	OTH %	2005 Win	Pred Win
222	356	Thurrock	Andrew Mackinlay	74,973	54.9	45.77	38.25	7.69	0.00	0.00	8.29	LAB	CON
280	298	Stevenage	Barbara Follett	65,206	62.7	47.64	32.80	13.09	0.00	0.00	6.46	LAB	CON
317	261	Watford	Claire Ward	76,261	64.8	42.96	23.18	25.29	0.00	0.00	8.56	LAB	CON
323	255	Basildon South and East Thurrock	Angela Smith	71,107	59.0	51.67	31.05	8.32	0.00	0.59	8.37	LAB	CON
324	254	Harlow	Bill Rammell	63,222	62.9	52.02	31.33	8.75	0.00	0.00	7.90	LAB	CON
325	253	Milton Keynes North	Unknown (changed seat)	79,336	62.9	48.80	28.08	13.91	0.00	0.00	9.21	LAB	CON
328	250	Milton Keynes South	Phyllis Starkey	81,648	59.9	50.81	29.87	11.25	0.00	0.00	8.07	LAB	CON
349	229	Hemel Hempstead	Michael Penning	71,891	64.5	52.72	29.35	11.92	0.00	0.00	6.01	CON	CON
360	218	St Albans	Anne Main	64,687	70.4	50.63	23.88	19.53	0.00	0.00	5.95	CON	CON
370	208	Basildon and Billericay	John Baron	64,873	60.2	53.62	22.57	8.70	0.00	4.62	10.49	CON	CON
372	206	Harwich and North Essex	Bernard Jenkin	71,106	64.9	54.27	22.96	13.74	0.00	0.00	9.03	CON	CON
378	200	Braintree	Brooks Newmark	69,091	66.7	58.88	24.52	7.53	0.00	0.00	9.08	CON	CON
381	197	Colchester	Bob Russell	72,578	56.8	45.23	9.98	41.81	0.00	0.00	2.97	LIB	CON
383	195	Welwyn Hatfield	Grant Shapps	65,617	68.1	61.50	25.91	9.93	0.00	0.00	2.66	CON	CON
384	194	Clacton	Douglas Carswell	68,363	62.9	58.53	22.72	9.91	0.00	0.00	8.83	CON	CON
386	192	Rochford and Southend East	James Duddridge	69,271	55.4	57.34	21.34	10.46	0.00	0.00	10.86	CON	CON
402	176	Chelmsford	Simon Burns	78,041	62.7	53.44	15.27	26.31	0.00	0.00	4.98	CON	CON
406	172	Witham	Unknown (new seat)	65,578	65.0	59.91	21.08	9.86	0.00	0.00	9.15	CON	CON
408	170	Castle Point	Robert Spink	69,482	65.9	59.27	20.01	7.24	0.00	0.00	13.47	CON	CON
420	158	Wycombe	Paul Goodman	70,461	62.9	60.77	20.35	11.83	0.00	0.00	7.05	CON	CON
454	124	Hertfordshire North East	Oliver Heald	71,943	65.6	62.02	17.93	13.76	0.00	0.00	6.29	CON	CON
476	102	Southend West	David Amess	66,202	61.2	59.41	12.27	17.96	0.00	0.00	10.36	CON	CON
493	85	Hertford and Stortford	Mark Prisk	72,707	67.7	63.23	13.87	12.92	0.00	0.00	9.98	CON	CON
494	84	Hertsmere	James Clappison	67,572	63.0	66.18	16.81	12.91	0.00	0.00	4.10	CON	CON
502	76	Hertfordshire South West	David Gauke	74,373	68.4	60.33	10.40	24.05	0.00	0.00	5.22	CON	CON
503	75	Broxbourne	Charles Walker	68,106	59.7	65.30	15.15	8.60	0.00	0.00	10.95	CON	CON
505	73	Hitchin and Harpenden	Peter Lilley	69,751	70.3	62.29	11.67	20.96	0.00	0.00	5.08	CON	CON
509	69	Rayleigh and Wickford	Mark Francois	74,197	63.3	65.95	15.14	9.20	0.00	0.00	9.71	CON	CON
515	63	Aylesbury	David Liddington	76,262	63.0	59.98	8.86	23.14	0.00	0.00	8.01	CON	CON
542	36	Epping Forest	Eleanor Laing	69,817	61.7	65.01	11.20	13.20	0.00	0.00	10.59	CON	CON
545	33	Maldon	John Whittingdale	67,224	65.5	69.10	14.64	10.34	0.00	0.00	5.92	CON	CON
562	16	Saffron Walden	Sir Alan Haselhurst	71,053	66.8	62.42	5.34	26.74	0.00	0.00	5.50	CON	CON
564	14	Beaconsfield	Dominic Grieve	72,225	63.7	66.89	9.11	16.22	0.00	0.00	7.77	CON	CON
565	13	Chesham and Amersham	Cheryl Gillan	69,961	67.4	64.21	6.40	20.58	0.00	0.00	8.82	CON	CON
571	7	Brentwood and Ongar	Eric Pickles	67,414	68.1	65.96	6.90	20.72	0.00	0.00	6.42	CON	CON
576	2	Buckingham	John Bercow	72,551	68.0	71.38	9.97	12.90	0.00	0.00	5.75	CON	CON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2005. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.