West: Majority Sorted Seats

This page shows all the seats in West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Bristol South, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Henley, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Somerset North East (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Bristol East (prediction: CON).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of West seats with predictions

Lab Seats	Con Seats	Seat	MP at 2005	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	NAT %	MIN %	OTH %	2005 Win	Pred Win
136	442	Bristol South	Dawn Primarolo	73,368	59.8	32.97	38.34	17.62	0.00	0.00	11.08	LAB	LAB
199	378	Bristol West	Stephen Williams	69,860	68.4	30.88	26.69	32.06	0.00	0.00	10.38	LIB	LIB
205	373	Oxford East	Andrew Smith	79,351	58.5	30.53	25.69	28.65	0.00	0.00	15.13	LAB	CON
206	372	Bristol East	Kerry McCarthy	66,793	62.7	39.42	34.37	16.08	0.00	0.00	10.12	LAB	CON
255	323	Kingswood	Roger Berry	64,921	67.8	47.29	36.10	12.91	0.00	0.00	3.71	LAB	CON
266	312	Gloucester	Parmjit Dhanda	75,245	62.8	48.09	35.18	9.98	0.00	0.00	6.75	LAB	CON
285	293	Bristol North West	Doug Naysmith	70,469	64.8	44.19	28.74	18.91	0.00	0.00	8.16	LAB	CON
291	287	Swindon North	Michael Wills	70,853	60.9	50.86	34.51	8.81	0.00	0.00	5.82	LAB	CON
316	262	Swindon South	Anna Snelgrove	71,138	60.2	49.45	30.06	11.98	0.00	0.00	8.50	LAB	CON
320	258	Stroud	David Drew	75,660	71.3	50.25	29.87	9.82	0.00	5.46	4.60	LAB	CON
348	230	Somerset North East	Dan Norris	65,072	72.0	51.86	28.56	13.00	0.00	0.57	6.00	LAB	CON
362	216	Filton and Bradley Stoke	Unknown (new seat)	66,198	65.2	49.40	22.30	20.60	0.00	0.00	7.69	CON	CON
364	214	Forest of Dean	Mark Harper	67,228	70.9	53.53	26.21	12.08	0.00	0.00	8.18	CON	CON
382	195	Thornbury and Yate	Steve Webb	64,541	72.2	40.46	5.14	48.71	0.00	0.00	5.69	LIB	LIB
390	188	Bath	Don Foster	60,184	68.6	43.02	6.72	40.28	0.00	5.39	4.58	LIB	CON
393	185	Chippenham	Unknown (new seat)	69,014	67.7	46.09	9.19	38.29	0.00	0.00	6.43	LIB	CON
396	182	Oxford West and Abingdon	Evan Harris	75,636	65.7	44.48	7.52	40.96	0.00	0.00	7.03	LIB	CON
426	152	Banbury	Tony Baldry	83,330	64.5	59.43	18.31	12.01	0.00	0.00	10.24	CON	CON
440	138	Cheltenham	Martin Horwood	76,485	61.2	48.02	5.59	35.11	0.00	5.07	6.22	LIB	CON
442	136	Wantage	Ed Vaizey	76,232	68.2	56.49	13.49	21.76	0.00	0.00	8.26	CON	CON
451	127	Somerset North	Liam Fox	71,846	72.0	55.15	11.41	24.24	0.00	0.00	9.19	CON	CON
455	123	Weston-Super-Mare	John Penrose	74,718	65.5	53.12	8.99	30.16	0.00	0.00	7.73	CON	CON
489	89	Tewkesbury	Laurence Robertson	74,455	62.9	60.41	11.71	20.72	0.00	0.60	6.57	CON	CON
511	67	Witney	David Cameron	75,118	69.0	62.74	11.80	16.63	0.00	0.00	8.83	CON	CON
523	55	Salisbury	Robert Key	66,000	67.6	61.40	9.78	19.74	0.00	0.00	9.08	CON	CON
529	49	Wiltshire South West	Andrew Murrison	70,060	67.0	60.70	8.15	22.79	0.00	0.00	8.37	CON	CON
536	42	Cotswolds, The	Geoffrey Clifton-Brown	75,128	66.9	62.01	8.88	22.15	0.00	0.21	6.74	CON	CON
546	32	Devizes	Michael Ancram	65,130	65.4	66.36	11.88	13.70	0.00	0.00	8.07	CON	CON
554	24	Wiltshire North	James Gray	64,203	67.9	59.44	3.89	32.56	0.00	0.00	4.11	CON	CON
563	15	Henley	Boris Johnson	72,681	67.7	64.33	6.90	20.55	0.00	0.00	8.22	CON	CON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2005. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.