West: Majority Sorted Seats

This page shows all the seats in West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Oxford East, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Witney, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Bristol North West (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Bristol East (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of West seats with predictions

Lab Seats	Con Seats	Seat	MP at 2010	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	NAT %	MIN %	OTH %	2010 Win	Pred Win
108	484	Oxford East	Andrew Smith	81,886	63.1	19.59	52.19	21.25	0.00	0.00	6.97	LAB	LAB
155	437	Bristol South	Dawn Primarolo	78,579	61.6	23.67	48.17	16.31	0.00	0.00	11.85	LAB	LAB
191	401	Bristol West	Stephen Williams	82,728	66.9	19.13	37.23	35.70	0.00	0.00	7.94	LIB	LAB
201	391	Bristol East	Kerry McCarthy	69,448	64.8	29.08	46.31	12.07	0.00	0.00	12.55	LAB	LAB
286	306	Stroud	Neil Carmichael	78,305	74.0	41.43	46.11	5.91	0.00	0.00	6.55	CON	LAB
289	303	Gloucester	Richard Graham	79,322	64.0	40.65	44.50	7.36	0.00	0.00	7.48	CON	LAB
299	293	Kingswood	Chris Skidmore	66,361	72.2	41.05	43.50	6.44	0.00	0.00	9.00	CON	LAB
311	281	Swindon South	Robert Buckland	72,622	64.9	42.45	42.82	6.74	0.00	0.00	7.99	CON	LAB
317	275	Somerset North East	Jacob Rees-Mogg	67,412	76.0	42.02	41.39	9.98	0.00	0.00	6.61	CON	CON
330	262	Bristol North West	Charlotte Leslie	73,469	68.5	38.73	35.66	19.12	0.00	0.00	6.49	CON	CON
344	248	Filton and Bradley Stoke	Jack Lopresti	69,003	70.0	41.51	36.16	12.90	0.00	0.00	9.43	CON	CON
348	244	Swindon North	Justin Tomlinson	78,391	64.2	45.21	38.89	6.59	0.00	0.00	9.31	CON	CON
375	217	Forest of Dean	Mark Harper	68,419	71.3	47.62	33.89	9.54	0.00	0.00	8.94	CON	CON
384	207	Bath	Don Foster	65,603	71.8	32.12	16.62	44.25	0.00	2.38	4.63	LIB	LIB
417	174	Thornbury and Yate	Steve Webb	64,092	75.2	37.91	16.74	39.55	0.00	0.00	5.80	LIB	LIB
438	154	Oxford West and Abingdon	Nicola Blackwood	86,458	65.3	43.08	20.34	29.66	0.00	0.00	6.91	CON	CON
456	136	Weston-Super-Mare	John Penrose	78,487	67.2	45.06	20.67	26.85	0.00	0.00	7.42	CON	CON
460	132	Banbury	Tony Baldry	86,986	64.7	53.57	28.87	8.05	0.00	4.99	4.51	CON	CON
465	127	Chippenham	Duncan Hames	72,105	72.7	41.80	16.63	33.41	0.00	0.00	8.17	LIB	CON
480	112	Tewkesbury	Laurence Robertson	76,655	70.4	47.96	21.31	23.16	0.00	0.00	7.57	CON	CON
485	107	Cheltenham	Martin Horwood	78,998	66.8	41.94	14.84	38.15	0.00	0.00	5.07	LIB	CON
501	91	Wantage	Ed Vaizey	80,456	70.0	52.73	23.66	15.58	0.00	0.00	8.03	CON	CON
503	89	Somerset North	Liam Fox	77,304	75.0	50.03	20.85	23.35	0.00	0.00	5.77	CON	CON
525	67	Wiltshire South West	Andrew Murrison	71,645	68.4	52.41	21.17	18.16	0.00	0.00	8.26	CON	CON
534	58	Salisbury	John Glen	67,429	71.9	49.97	17.33	24.56	0.00	0.00	8.14	CON	CON
540	52	Cotswolds, The	Geoffrey Clifton-Brown	76,728	71.5	53.78	20.45	17.21	0.00	0.00	8.55	CON	CON
556	36	Devizes	Claire Perry	67,374	68.8	55.83	19.88	14.65	0.00	0.00	9.64	CON	CON
557	35	Wiltshire North	James Gray	66,313	73.4	52.33	16.37	23.85	0.00	0.00	7.45	CON	CON
565	27	Henley	John Howell	75,005	71.4	56.91	20.62	12.81	0.00	0.00	9.66	CON	CON
567	25	Witney	David Cameron	78,766	73.3	59.54	22.45	7.44	0.00	0.00	10.57	CON	CON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2010. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.