North London: Majority Sorted Seats

This page shows all the seats in North London sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Tottenham, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Chelsea and Fulham, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Enfield North (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Hampstead and Kilburn (prediction: CON).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of North London seats with predictions

Lab
Seats
Con
Seats
SeatMP at 2005ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
NAT
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2005
Win
Pred
Win
54524Tottenham David Lammy66,23147.826.0647.5611.790.006.368.23LABLAB
69509West Ham Lyn Brown83,03148.822.6341.016.690.0019.909.77LABLAB
71507East Ham Stephen Timms82,84650.425.0843.317.340.0020.144.13LABLAB
86492Hackney South and Shoreditch Meg Hillier60,76849.727.3343.3115.350.000.1913.82LABLAB
88490Islington North Jeremy Corbyn58,42753.925.2140.8123.910.000.0010.07LABLAB
93485Brent Central Unknown (changed seat)71,93854.327.2241.7323.710.000.007.35LABLAB
114464Hackney North and Stoke Newington Diane Abbott63,30949.627.7137.6917.160.009.078.36LABLAB
122456Barking Margaret Hodge75,38250.727.4436.118.860.0017.2910.30LABLAB
123455Walthamstow Neil Gerrard63,08054.631.5039.9221.150.000.007.44LABLAB
135443Edmonton Andy Love61,55859.440.2545.847.760.000.006.14LABLAB
155422Hornsey and Wood Green Lynne Featherstone76,62261.826.0427.9137.400.000.008.65LIBLIB
158419Islington South and Finsbury Emily Thornberry57,74853.628.1829.5032.360.000.009.95LABLIB
165413Holborn and St Pancras Frank Dobson85,18851.433.8634.1620.100.000.0011.88LABLAB
165412Bethnal Green and Bow George Galloway73,28053.322.8223.078.430.0038.177.51MINMIN
171407Leyton and Wanstead Harry Cohen61,86055.236.0435.3818.880.000.009.70LABCON
185393Ilford South Mike Gapes79,63953.640.5738.4814.580.000.006.37LABCON
195383Brent North Barry Gardiner76,10357.642.4039.0313.490.000.005.09LABCON
210368Dagenham and Rainham Jon Cruddas70,74556.344.9939.235.370.002.967.45LABCON
225353Harrow West Gareth Thomas65,85363.544.1936.3813.600.000.005.83LABCON
251327Hampstead and Kilburn Unknown (changed seat)76,62855.435.9824.9330.810.000.008.28LIBCON
257321Hammersmith Unknown (changed seat)68,19859.946.5034.7013.120.000.005.67LABCON
269309Poplar and Limehouse Jim Fitzpatrick68,86746.838.4825.2511.130.0016.158.99LABCON
277301Hendon Andrew Dismore68,87258.349.1034.759.950.000.006.20LABCON
284294Harrow East Tony McNulty69,50260.550.6935.419.810.000.004.09LABCON
293285Westminster North Karen Buck62,46353.046.4930.1113.780.000.009.62LABCON
335243Enfield North Unknown (changed seat)64,25661.753.0730.738.080.000.008.13CONCON
351227Finchley and Golders Green Unknown (changed seat)67,31561.852.6128.9212.050.000.006.42CONCON
354224Enfield Southgate David Burrowes63,02165.855.1430.018.370.000.006.48CONCON
359219Ilford North Lee Scott69,30060.855.5629.379.670.000.005.41CONCON
379199Chipping Barnet Theresa Villiers71,52563.857.7923.3510.720.000.008.14CONCON
382196Hornchurch and Upminster Angela Watkinson77,16563.258.0522.796.190.002.989.99CONCON
411167Kensington Sir Malcolm Rifkind61,68251.357.8918.1713.730.000.0010.21CONCON
466112Cities of London and Westminster Mark Field63,80250.460.8215.0013.200.000.0010.98CONCON
50078Romford Andrew Rosindell67,92562.668.1618.385.720.000.007.74CONCON
50771Chingford and Woodford Green Iain Duncan Smith61,38663.065.9615.2812.430.000.006.33CONCON
50870Chelsea and Fulham Unknown (new seat)61,74157.765.7015.0110.400.000.008.89CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2005. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.