North London: Majority Sorted Seats

This page shows all the seats in North London sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Tottenham, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Chelsea and Fulham, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Enfield North (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Hampstead and Kilburn (prediction: CON).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of North London seats with predictions

Lab Seats	Con Seats	Seat	MP at 2005	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	NAT %	MIN %	OTH %	2005 Win	Pred Win
54	524	Tottenham	David Lammy	66,231	47.8	26.06	47.56	11.79	0.00	6.36	8.23	LAB	LAB
69	509	West Ham	Lyn Brown	83,031	48.8	22.63	41.01	6.69	0.00	19.90	9.77	LAB	LAB
71	507	East Ham	Stephen Timms	82,846	50.4	25.08	43.31	7.34	0.00	20.14	4.13	LAB	LAB
86	492	Hackney South and Shoreditch	Meg Hillier	60,768	49.7	27.33	43.31	15.35	0.00	0.19	13.82	LAB	LAB
88	490	Islington North	Jeremy Corbyn	58,427	53.9	25.21	40.81	23.91	0.00	0.00	10.07	LAB	LAB
93	485	Brent Central	Unknown (changed seat)	71,938	54.3	27.22	41.73	23.71	0.00	0.00	7.35	LAB	LAB
114	464	Hackney North and Stoke Newington	Diane Abbott	63,309	49.6	27.71	37.69	17.16	0.00	9.07	8.36	LAB	LAB
122	456	Barking	Margaret Hodge	75,382	50.7	27.44	36.11	8.86	0.00	17.29	10.30	LAB	LAB
123	455	Walthamstow	Neil Gerrard	63,080	54.6	31.50	39.92	21.15	0.00	0.00	7.44	LAB	LAB
135	443	Edmonton	Andy Love	61,558	59.4	40.25	45.84	7.76	0.00	0.00	6.14	LAB	LAB
155	422	Hornsey and Wood Green	Lynne Featherstone	76,622	61.8	26.04	27.91	37.40	0.00	0.00	8.65	LIB	LIB
158	419	Islington South and Finsbury	Emily Thornberry	57,748	53.6	28.18	29.50	32.36	0.00	0.00	9.95	LAB	LIB
165	413	Holborn and St Pancras	Frank Dobson	85,188	51.4	33.86	34.16	20.10	0.00	0.00	11.88	LAB	LAB
165	412	Bethnal Green and Bow	George Galloway	73,280	53.3	22.82	23.07	8.43	0.00	38.17	7.51	MIN	MIN
171	407	Leyton and Wanstead	Harry Cohen	61,860	55.2	36.04	35.38	18.88	0.00	0.00	9.70	LAB	CON
185	393	Ilford South	Mike Gapes	79,639	53.6	40.57	38.48	14.58	0.00	0.00	6.37	LAB	CON
195	383	Brent North	Barry Gardiner	76,103	57.6	42.40	39.03	13.49	0.00	0.00	5.09	LAB	CON
210	368	Dagenham and Rainham	Jon Cruddas	70,745	56.3	44.99	39.23	5.37	0.00	2.96	7.45	LAB	CON
225	353	Harrow West	Gareth Thomas	65,853	63.5	44.19	36.38	13.60	0.00	0.00	5.83	LAB	CON
251	327	Hampstead and Kilburn	Unknown (changed seat)	76,628	55.4	35.98	24.93	30.81	0.00	0.00	8.28	LIB	CON
257	321	Hammersmith	Unknown (changed seat)	68,198	59.9	46.50	34.70	13.12	0.00	0.00	5.67	LAB	CON
269	309	Poplar and Limehouse	Jim Fitzpatrick	68,867	46.8	38.48	25.25	11.13	0.00	16.15	8.99	LAB	CON
277	301	Hendon	Andrew Dismore	68,872	58.3	49.10	34.75	9.95	0.00	0.00	6.20	LAB	CON
284	294	Harrow East	Tony McNulty	69,502	60.5	50.69	35.41	9.81	0.00	0.00	4.09	LAB	CON
293	285	Westminster North	Karen Buck	62,463	53.0	46.49	30.11	13.78	0.00	0.00	9.62	LAB	CON
335	243	Enfield North	Unknown (changed seat)	64,256	61.7	53.07	30.73	8.08	0.00	0.00	8.13	CON	CON
351	227	Finchley and Golders Green	Unknown (changed seat)	67,315	61.8	52.61	28.92	12.05	0.00	0.00	6.42	CON	CON
354	224	Enfield Southgate	David Burrowes	63,021	65.8	55.14	30.01	8.37	0.00	0.00	6.48	CON	CON
359	219	Ilford North	Lee Scott	69,300	60.8	55.56	29.37	9.67	0.00	0.00	5.41	CON	CON
379	199	Chipping Barnet	Theresa Villiers	71,525	63.8	57.79	23.35	10.72	0.00	0.00	8.14	CON	CON
382	196	Hornchurch and Upminster	Angela Watkinson	77,165	63.2	58.05	22.79	6.19	0.00	2.98	9.99	CON	CON
411	167	Kensington	Sir Malcolm Rifkind	61,682	51.3	57.89	18.17	13.73	0.00	0.00	10.21	CON	CON
466	112	Cities of London and Westminster	Mark Field	63,802	50.4	60.82	15.00	13.20	0.00	0.00	10.98	CON	CON
500	78	Romford	Andrew Rosindell	67,925	62.6	68.16	18.38	5.72	0.00	0.00	7.74	CON	CON
507	71	Chingford and Woodford Green	Iain Duncan Smith	61,386	63.0	65.96	15.28	12.43	0.00	0.00	6.33	CON	CON
508	70	Chelsea and Fulham	Unknown (new seat)	61,741	57.7	65.70	15.01	10.40	0.00	0.00	8.89	CON	CON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2005. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.