North London: Majority Sorted Seats

This page shows all the seats in North London sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, East Ham, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Chelsea and Fulham, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Finchley and Golders Green (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Dagenham and Rainham (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of North London seats with predictions

Lab Seats	Con Seats	Seat	MP at 2010	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	NAT %	MIN %	OTH %	2010 Win	Pred Win
4	588	East Ham	Stephen Timms	90,675	55.6	15.69	77.02	3.21	0.00	0.00	4.07	LAB	LAB
11	581	West Ham	Lyn Brown	85,313	55.0	15.18	69.20	3.18	0.00	0.00	12.44	LAB	LAB
13	579	Tottenham	David Lammy	69,933	58.2	15.69	69.37	4.89	0.00	0.00	10.05	LAB	LAB
18	574	Hackney South and Shoreditch	Meg Hillier	72,816	58.9	14.42	67.12	7.93	0.00	0.00	10.53	LAB	LAB
21	571	Hackney North and Stoke Newington	Diane Abbott	73,874	62.9	15.43	66.35	9.39	0.00	0.00	8.83	LAB	LAB
23	569	Islington North	Jeremy Corbyn	68,120	65.4	15.11	65.87	12.19	0.00	0.00	6.83	LAB	LAB
32	560	Walthamstow	Stella Creasy	64,625	63.4	14.87	63.22	14.25	0.00	0.00	7.65	LAB	LAB
55	537	Barking	Margaret Hodge	73,864	61.4	18.17	58.98	2.27	0.00	14.60	5.98	LAB	LAB
58	534	Brent Central	Sarah Teather	74,076	61.2	12.07	52.60	29.72	0.00	0.00	5.62	LIB	LAB
59	533	Bethnal Green and Bow	Rushanara Ali	81,243	62.4	14.83	54.32	5.66	0.00	16.82	8.37	LAB	LAB
83	509	Holborn and St Pancras	Frank Dobson	86,863	62.9	21.26	57.49	13.45	0.00	0.00	7.80	LAB	LAB
103	489	Islington South and Finsbury	Emily Thornberry	67,649	64.4	20.29	53.64	19.60	0.00	0.00	6.47	LAB	LAB
114	478	Leyton and Wanstead	John Cryer	63,541	63.2	23.12	54.99	13.16	0.00	0.00	8.73	LAB	LAB
125	467	Ilford South	Mike Gapes	86,220	59.4	28.13	59.07	4.69	0.00	0.00	8.11	LAB	LAB
133	459	Edmonton	Andy Love	63,902	63.2	30.32	59.65	2.91	0.00	0.00	7.12	LAB	LAB
142	450	Hornsey and Wood Green	Lynne Featherstone	79,916	68.9	17.55	45.39	32.03	0.00	0.00	5.02	LIB	LAB
157	435	Brent North	Barry Gardiner	83,896	62.3	32.28	56.54	4.70	0.00	0.00	6.49	LAB	LAB
184	408	Poplar and Limehouse	Jim Fitzpatrick	74,956	62.3	27.58	46.35	3.09	0.00	17.47	5.51	LAB	LAB
212	380	Hammersmith	Andy Slaughter	72,348	65.6	37.08	52.93	4.41	0.00	0.00	5.58	LAB	LAB
219	373	Harrow West	Gareth Thomas	71,510	64.5	37.51	52.81	4.47	0.00	0.00	5.20	LAB	LAB
236	356	Westminster North	Karen Buck	66,739	59.3	39.13	51.81	3.85	0.00	0.00	5.21	LAB	LAB
251	341	Hampstead and Kilburn	Glenda Jackson	79,713	66.3	33.62	44.19	16.75	0.00	0.00	5.43	LAB	LAB
252	340	Dagenham and Rainham	Jon Cruddas	69,764	63.4	34.71	45.17	2.38	0.00	11.20	6.55	LAB	LAB
274	318	Hendon	Matthew Offord	78,923	58.8	42.89	49.15	3.42	0.00	0.00	4.54	CON	LAB
298	294	Enfield North	Nick de Bois	66,258	67.1	42.84	45.41	3.36	0.00	0.00	8.39	CON	LAB
310	282	Harrow East	Bob Blackman	68,554	70.0	45.28	45.68	3.95	0.00	0.00	5.09	CON	LAB
332	260	Finchley and Golders Green	Mike Freer	77,198	61.1	46.75	43.37	4.71	0.00	0.00	5.17	CON	CON
342	250	Ilford North	Lee Scott	72,372	65.0	46.30	41.47	3.51	0.00	0.00	8.72	CON	CON
360	232	Enfield Southgate	David Burrowes	64,138	69.2	50.05	40.10	3.82	0.00	0.00	6.02	CON	CON
369	223	Chipping Barnet	Theresa Villiers	77,798	65.1	49.69	36.62	5.69	0.00	0.00	7.99	CON	CON
377	215	Kensington	Sir Malcolm Rifkind	65,961	53.3	50.92	36.67	5.41	0.00	0.00	7.00	CON	CON
406	186	Cities of London and Westminster	Mark Field	66,489	55.5	53.05	33.55	6.04	0.00	0.00	7.36	CON	CON
419	173	Chingford and Woodford Green	Iain Duncan Smith	64,831	66.5	53.51	32.25	4.65	0.00	0.00	9.60	CON	CON
444	148	Hornchurch and Upminster	Angela Watkinson	78,487	68.0	52.07	28.70	3.85	0.00	6.41	8.98	CON	CON
515	77	Romford	Andrew Rosindell	71,193	65.3	56.54	26.35	3.32	0.00	5.25	8.55	CON	CON
542	50	Chelsea and Fulham	Greg Hands	66,295	60.1	61.17	27.74	4.49	0.00	0.00	6.60	CON	CON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2010. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.