South London: Majority Sorted Seats

This page shows all the seats in South London sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Camberwell and Peckham, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Orpington, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Battersea (prediction: LAB), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Eltham (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of South London seats with predictions

Lab
Seats
Con
Seats
SeatMP at 2010ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
UKIP
%
NAT
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2010
Win
Pred
Win
9583Camberwell and Peckham Harriet Harman78,61859.37.2068.305.8311.630.000.007.04LABLAB
24568Lewisham Deptford Joan Ruddock67,05861.57.4462.886.8411.730.000.0011.11LABLAB
49543Croydon North Malcolm Wicks85,21260.615.1764.372.4312.390.000.005.64LABLAB
58534Mitcham and Morden Siobhain McDonagh65,93966.416.2964.092.0611.720.000.005.84LABLAB
62530Vauxhall Kate Hoey74,81157.712.5860.158.5913.250.000.005.43LABLAB
89503Dulwich and West Norwood Tessa Jowell72,81766.213.2056.9610.6414.720.000.004.48LABLAB
92500Greenwich and Woolwich Nick Raynsford65,48962.915.5958.973.1612.480.000.009.80LABLAB
96496Streatham Chuka Umunna74,53162.810.1152.8519.3012.860.000.004.88LABLAB
108484Hayes and Harlington John McDonnell70,23360.720.4961.421.528.410.000.008.17LABLAB
123469Ealing Southall Virendra Sharma60,37970.820.8360.182.5911.070.000.005.33LABLAB
129463Lewisham East Heidi Alexander65,92663.314.6653.4411.6415.100.000.005.16LABLAB
142450Ealing North Stephen Pound67,90270.221.9258.472.2911.760.000.005.56LABLAB
145447Lewisham West and Penge Jim Dowd69,02265.216.5651.4711.6215.730.000.004.62LABLAB
181411Erith and Thamesmead Teresa Pearce69,91860.822.5152.592.0912.510.005.145.15LABLAB
184408Bermondsey and Old Southwark Simon Hughes77,62357.59.4539.1031.8312.580.000.007.05LIBLAB
204388Feltham and Heston Alan Keen81,05859.925.0751.902.3912.610.000.008.02LABLAB
241351Tooting Sadiq Khan73,83668.629.5752.142.5812.260.000.003.46LABLAB
251341Eltham Clive Efford62,59067.028.5849.402.1912.490.000.007.33LABLAB
280312Brentford and Isleworth Mary Macleod83,54664.428.2843.987.1314.860.000.005.75CONLAB
314278Ealing Central and Acton Angie Bray63,48974.329.0640.5211.1014.870.000.004.44CONLAB
315277Croydon Central Gavin Barwell78,88063.030.4441.692.2912.330.006.526.72CONLAB
348244Battersea Jane Ellison74,30065.738.3943.702.5512.010.000.003.34CONLAB
390202Uxbridge and South Ruislip John Randall71,16863.339.3133.753.4715.970.000.007.50CONCON
394198Putney Justine Greening63,37064.443.0836.732.9413.000.000.004.24CONCON
395196Twickenham Vincent Cable79,86174.825.1118.0537.8714.700.000.004.27LIBLIB
396196Bexleyheath and Crayford David Evennett64,98566.441.5134.452.2113.740.000.008.08CONCON
398194Wimbledon Stephen Hammond65,72372.140.1232.648.4715.180.000.003.59CONCON
399192Kingston and Surbiton Edward Davey81,11670.427.5819.7233.2515.790.000.003.65LIBLIB
405186Carshalton and Wallington Tom Brake66,52069.027.8919.1231.7816.190.000.005.02LIBLIB
417175Croydon South Richard Ottaway81,30169.341.9730.426.3217.700.000.003.59CONCON
465127Sutton and Cheam Paul Burstow66,65872.833.4017.3429.1515.210.000.004.90LIBCON
474118Old Bexley and Sidcup James Brokenshire65,66569.345.1828.102.6714.630.000.009.42CONCON
479113Bromley and Chislehurst Bob Neill65,42767.344.5726.945.4316.550.000.006.51CONCON
49597Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner Nick Hurd70,87370.848.5428.772.8914.490.000.005.31CONCON
53656Beckenham Bob Stewart66,21972.048.9224.834.0516.500.000.005.69CONCON
54745Richmond Park Zac Goldsmith77,06076.940.7515.4026.2814.380.000.003.18CONCON
58111Orpington Joseph Johnson67,73272.250.7419.378.0116.030.000.005.84CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2010. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.