South London: Majority Sorted Seats

This page shows all the seats in South London sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Camberwell and Peckham, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Orpington, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Battersea (prediction: LAB), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Eltham (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of South London seats with predictions

Lab Seats	Con Seats	Seat	MP at 2010	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	UKIP %	NAT %	MIN %	OTH %	2010 Win	Pred Win
9	583	Camberwell and Peckham	Harriet Harman	78,618	59.3	7.20	68.30	5.83	11.63	0.00	0.00	7.04	LAB	LAB
24	568	Lewisham Deptford	Joan Ruddock	67,058	61.5	7.44	62.88	6.84	11.73	0.00	0.00	11.11	LAB	LAB
49	543	Croydon North	Malcolm Wicks	85,212	60.6	15.17	64.37	2.43	12.39	0.00	0.00	5.64	LAB	LAB
58	534	Mitcham and Morden	Siobhain McDonagh	65,939	66.4	16.29	64.09	2.06	11.72	0.00	0.00	5.84	LAB	LAB
62	530	Vauxhall	Kate Hoey	74,811	57.7	12.58	60.15	8.59	13.25	0.00	0.00	5.43	LAB	LAB
89	503	Dulwich and West Norwood	Tessa Jowell	72,817	66.2	13.20	56.96	10.64	14.72	0.00	0.00	4.48	LAB	LAB
92	500	Greenwich and Woolwich	Nick Raynsford	65,489	62.9	15.59	58.97	3.16	12.48	0.00	0.00	9.80	LAB	LAB
96	496	Streatham	Chuka Umunna	74,531	62.8	10.11	52.85	19.30	12.86	0.00	0.00	4.88	LAB	LAB
108	484	Hayes and Harlington	John McDonnell	70,233	60.7	20.49	61.42	1.52	8.41	0.00	0.00	8.17	LAB	LAB
123	469	Ealing Southall	Virendra Sharma	60,379	70.8	20.83	60.18	2.59	11.07	0.00	0.00	5.33	LAB	LAB
129	463	Lewisham East	Heidi Alexander	65,926	63.3	14.66	53.44	11.64	15.10	0.00	0.00	5.16	LAB	LAB
142	450	Ealing North	Stephen Pound	67,902	70.2	21.92	58.47	2.29	11.76	0.00	0.00	5.56	LAB	LAB
145	447	Lewisham West and Penge	Jim Dowd	69,022	65.2	16.56	51.47	11.62	15.73	0.00	0.00	4.62	LAB	LAB
181	411	Erith and Thamesmead	Teresa Pearce	69,918	60.8	22.51	52.59	2.09	12.51	0.00	5.14	5.15	LAB	LAB
184	408	Bermondsey and Old Southwark	Simon Hughes	77,623	57.5	9.45	39.10	31.83	12.58	0.00	0.00	7.05	LIB	LAB
204	388	Feltham and Heston	Alan Keen	81,058	59.9	25.07	51.90	2.39	12.61	0.00	0.00	8.02	LAB	LAB
241	351	Tooting	Sadiq Khan	73,836	68.6	29.57	52.14	2.58	12.26	0.00	0.00	3.46	LAB	LAB
251	341	Eltham	Clive Efford	62,590	67.0	28.58	49.40	2.19	12.49	0.00	0.00	7.33	LAB	LAB
280	312	Brentford and Isleworth	Mary Macleod	83,546	64.4	28.28	43.98	7.13	14.86	0.00	0.00	5.75	CON	LAB
314	278	Ealing Central and Acton	Angie Bray	63,489	74.3	29.06	40.52	11.10	14.87	0.00	0.00	4.44	CON	LAB
315	277	Croydon Central	Gavin Barwell	78,880	63.0	30.44	41.69	2.29	12.33	0.00	6.52	6.72	CON	LAB
348	244	Battersea	Jane Ellison	74,300	65.7	38.39	43.70	2.55	12.01	0.00	0.00	3.34	CON	LAB
390	202	Uxbridge and South Ruislip	John Randall	71,168	63.3	39.31	33.75	3.47	15.97	0.00	0.00	7.50	CON	CON
394	198	Putney	Justine Greening	63,370	64.4	43.08	36.73	2.94	13.00	0.00	0.00	4.24	CON	CON
395	196	Twickenham	Vincent Cable	79,861	74.8	25.11	18.05	37.87	14.70	0.00	0.00	4.27	LIB	LIB
396	196	Bexleyheath and Crayford	David Evennett	64,985	66.4	41.51	34.45	2.21	13.74	0.00	0.00	8.08	CON	CON
398	194	Wimbledon	Stephen Hammond	65,723	72.1	40.12	32.64	8.47	15.18	0.00	0.00	3.59	CON	CON
399	192	Kingston and Surbiton	Edward Davey	81,116	70.4	27.58	19.72	33.25	15.79	0.00	0.00	3.65	LIB	LIB
405	186	Carshalton and Wallington	Tom Brake	66,520	69.0	27.89	19.12	31.78	16.19	0.00	0.00	5.02	LIB	LIB
417	175	Croydon South	Richard Ottaway	81,301	69.3	41.97	30.42	6.32	17.70	0.00	0.00	3.59	CON	CON
465	127	Sutton and Cheam	Paul Burstow	66,658	72.8	33.40	17.34	29.15	15.21	0.00	0.00	4.90	LIB	CON
474	118	Old Bexley and Sidcup	James Brokenshire	65,665	69.3	45.18	28.10	2.67	14.63	0.00	0.00	9.42	CON	CON
479	113	Bromley and Chislehurst	Bob Neill	65,427	67.3	44.57	26.94	5.43	16.55	0.00	0.00	6.51	CON	CON
495	97	Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner	Nick Hurd	70,873	70.8	48.54	28.77	2.89	14.49	0.00	0.00	5.31	CON	CON
536	56	Beckenham	Bob Stewart	66,219	72.0	48.92	24.83	4.05	16.50	0.00	0.00	5.69	CON	CON
547	45	Richmond Park	Zac Goldsmith	77,060	76.9	40.75	15.40	26.28	14.38	0.00	0.00	3.18	CON	CON
581	11	Orpington	Joseph Johnson	67,732	72.2	50.74	19.37	8.01	16.03	0.00	0.00	5.84	CON	CON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2010. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.