South London: Majority Sorted Seats

This page shows all the seats in South London sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Camberwell and Peckham, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Beckenham, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Croydon Central (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Ealing North (prediction: CON).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of South London seats with predictions

Lab Seats	Con Seats	Seat	MP at 2005	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	NAT %	MIN %	OTH %	2005 Win	Pred Win
28	550	Camberwell and Peckham	Harriet Harman	74,567	53.2	23.22	51.46	14.16	0.00	2.69	8.46	LAB	LAB
62	516	Lewisham Deptford	Joan Ruddock	66,714	52.1	25.35	44.74	12.28	0.00	9.60	8.04	LAB	LAB
101	477	Vauxhall	Kate Hoey	72,102	46.9	28.19	41.49	21.82	0.00	0.00	8.50	LAB	LAB
103	475	Ealing Southall	Piara Khabra	62,588	56.2	32.85	45.32	14.01	0.00	0.00	7.82	LAB	LAB
110	468	Greenwich and Woolwich	Nick Raynsford	62,406	55.6	31.49	42.42	14.40	0.00	0.00	11.69	LAB	LAB
116	462	Mitcham and Morden	Siobhain McDonagh	64,914	61.2	36.54	46.39	9.69	0.00	0.00	7.38	LAB	LAB
124	454	Croydon North	Malcolm Wicks	86,176	52.6	35.00	43.19	12.09	0.00	0.00	9.71	LAB	LAB
126	452	Hayes and Harlington	John McDonnell	64,840	56.7	38.62	46.21	6.50	0.00	0.00	8.67	LAB	LAB
131	447	Streatham	Keith Hill	73,232	51.3	29.90	36.41	23.68	0.00	5.37	4.64	LAB	LAB
137	441	Erith and Thamesmead	John Austin	70,127	53.8	38.01	42.43	8.48	0.00	0.00	11.08	LAB	LAB
169	409	Lewisham East	Bridget Prentice	66,762	55.8	37.71	37.11	14.46	0.00	0.08	10.63	LAB	CON
175	403	Lewisham West and Penge	Jim Dowd	69,632	59.4	35.43	34.30	21.91	0.00	0.00	8.35	LAB	CON
191	387	Dulwich and West Norwood	Tessa Jowell	70,047	56.3	37.64	34.94	16.88	0.00	4.82	5.73	LAB	CON
194	384	Feltham and Heston	Alan Keen	80,206	49.8	41.24	38.01	11.73	0.00	0.00	9.02	LAB	CON
203	374	Bermondsey and Old Southwark	Simon Hughes	73,944	49.2	26.22	21.61	41.67	0.00	0.00	10.50	LIB	LIB
209	369	Ealing North	Stephen Pound	72,680	59.3	42.05	36.44	13.70	0.00	0.00	7.81	LAB	CON
253	325	Tooting	Sadiq Khan	71,845	59.0	43.69	32.51	13.66	0.00	0.00	10.14	LAB	CON
282	296	Eltham	Clive Efford	64,028	60.5	46.72	31.53	12.15	0.00	0.00	9.60	LAB	CON
288	290	Brentford and Isleworth	Ann Keen	79,549	54.6	44.17	28.26	17.09	0.00	0.00	10.48	LAB	CON
330	248	Croydon Central	Unknown (changed seat)	75,166	60.6	52.16	30.72	8.87	0.00	0.00	8.25	LAB	CON
332	246	Battersea	Martin Linton	69,488	59.0	51.88	30.12	10.26	0.00	0.00	7.75	LAB	CON
336	242	Ealing Central and Acton	Andrew Slaughter	69,548	56.6	44.81	22.45	22.89	0.00	0.00	9.85	LAB	CON
365	213	Putney	Justine Greening	60,220	59.5	54.82	27.16	11.52	0.00	0.00	6.50	CON	CON
367	211	Wimbledon	Stephen Hammond	63,972	68.0	54.27	25.27	12.87	0.00	0.00	7.59	CON	CON
376	202	Bexleyheath and Crayford	David Evennett	64,990	64.7	58.01	24.16	9.30	0.00	0.00	8.52	CON	CON
391	186	Twickenham	Vincent Cable	72,015	71.8	42.04	5.46	45.71	0.00	0.00	6.79	LIB	LIB
396	181	Kingston and Surbiton	Edward Davey	73,341	68.5	43.40	6.33	45.13	0.00	0.00	5.14	LIB	LIB
413	165	Uxbridge and South Ruislip	John Randall	66,159	61.6	57.12	17.28	16.46	0.00	0.00	9.15	CON	CON
432	146	Carshalton and Wallington	Tom Brake	65,858	63.5	49.71	8.33	34.53	0.00	0.00	7.42	LIB	CON
453	125	Richmond Park	Susan Kramer	69,885	72.8	48.39	4.45	40.73	0.00	0.00	6.42	LIB	CON
456	122	Old Bexley and Sidcup	Derek Conway	65,027	65.3	61.63	17.48	9.88	0.00	0.00	11.00	CON	CON
461	117	Sutton and Cheam	Paul Burstow	65,305	66.1	50.46	5.70	40.85	0.00	0.00	2.99	LIB	CON
463	115	Bromley and Chislehurst	Eric Forth	63,531	65.8	57.82	12.74	18.50	0.00	0.00	10.94	CON	CON
520	58	Croydon South	Richard Ottaway	80,151	63.5	65.14	13.75	14.61	0.00	0.00	6.50	CON	CON
526	52	Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner	Nick Hurd	68,052	64.2	66.41	14.56	11.60	0.00	0.00	7.43	CON	CON
560	18	Orpington	John Horam	66,448	69.9	59.75	2.77	34.65	0.00	0.00	2.83	CON	CON
574	4	Beckenham	Jacqui Lait	63,738	65.3	71.23	11.34	10.62	0.00	0.00	6.80	CON	CON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2005. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.