South West: Majority Sorted Seats

This page shows all the seats in South West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Exeter, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Christchurch, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Dorset South (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Plymouth Moor View (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of South West seats with predictions

Lab Seats	Con Seats	Seat	MP at 2010	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	NAT %	MIN %	OTH %	2010 Win	Pred Win
227	365	Exeter	Ben Bradshaw	77,157	67.7	33.72	47.89	7.90	0.00	0.00	10.50	LAB	LAB
246	346	Plymouth Moor View	Alison Seabeck	67,261	61.7	33.98	45.37	6.46	0.00	0.00	14.18	LAB	LAB
272	320	Plymouth Sutton and Devonport	Oliver Colville	71,035	61.8	35.04	41.39	12.32	0.00	0.00	11.25	CON	LAB
347	245	Dorset South	Richard Drax	73,838	68.1	45.77	39.49	7.26	0.00	0.00	7.47	CON	CON
368	224	Camborne and Redruth	George Eustice	63,968	66.4	38.34	26.06	25.07	0.00	0.00	10.53	CON	CON
402	189	Yeovil	David Laws	82,314	69.4	33.66	14.95	43.36	0.00	4.12	3.91	LIB	LIB
404	188	Bridgwater and West Somerset	Ian Liddell-Grainger	76,560	71.2	46.04	26.84	15.96	0.00	0.00	11.16	CON	CON
420	172	Bournemouth West	Conor Burns	71,753	58.1	45.91	24.53	19.39	0.00	0.00	10.17	CON	CON
427	165	St Ives	Andrew George	66,930	68.6	39.74	17.89	30.37	0.00	5.57	6.43	LIB	CON
428	164	Devon North	Nick Harvey	74,508	68.9	36.77	14.92	35.01	0.00	7.25	6.05	LIB	CON
441	151	Truro and Falmouth	Sarah Newton	70,598	69.1	42.48	19.35	28.48	0.00	0.00	9.68	CON	CON
442	150	Torbay	Adrian Sanders	76,151	64.6	39.47	16.28	34.64	0.00	5.34	4.27	LIB	CON
450	142	St Austell and Newquay	Stephen Gilbert	76,346	61.9	40.72	16.89	30.39	0.00	4.25	7.76	LIB	CON
469	123	Poole	Robert Syms	64,661	73.4	48.26	22.45	19.25	0.00	0.00	10.04	CON	CON
472	120	Wells	Tessa Munt	79,432	70.3	43.29	17.23	31.61	0.00	0.00	7.87	LIB	CON
474	118	Bournemouth East	Tobias Ellwood	71,125	61.9	49.19	22.97	18.52	0.00	0.00	9.32	CON	CON
483	109	Newton Abbot	Anne-Marie Morris	69,343	69.6	43.78	16.73	29.59	0.00	6.40	3.50	CON	CON
491	101	Taunton Deane	Jeremy Browne	82,537	70.5	42.96	14.82	36.71	0.00	0.00	5.51	LIB	CON
496	96	Cornwall North	Dan Rogerson	68,662	68.2	42.45	13.92	35.71	0.00	4.91	3.01	LIB	CON
497	95	Devon East	Hugo Swire	73,109	72.6	49.09	20.49	18.82	0.00	8.19	3.41	CON	CON
502	90	Cornwall South East	Sheryll Murray	72,237	68.7	45.88	16.79	26.28	0.00	6.21	4.83	CON	CON
507	85	Totnes	Sarah Wollaston	67,937	70.4	46.62	17.11	23.21	0.00	6.04	7.02	CON	CON
509	83	Dorset Mid and Poole North	Annette Brooke	64,660	72.4	45.28	15.59	32.75	0.00	0.00	6.38	LIB	CON
524	68	Somerton and Frome	David Heath	81,548	74.3	45.26	14.13	35.15	0.00	0.00	5.45	LIB	CON
529	63	Devon West and Torridge	Geoffrey Cox	76,574	72.2	46.42	15.00	27.96	0.00	5.47	5.16	CON	CON
531	61	Dorset West	Oliver Letwin	76,869	74.6	48.35	16.37	28.40	0.00	0.00	6.88	CON	CON
533	59	Tiverton and Honiton	Neil Parish	76,810	71.5	51.06	18.66	20.97	0.00	0.00	9.31	CON	CON
549	43	Devon South West	Gary Streeter	70,059	71.2	56.73	22.14	11.78	0.00	0.00	9.35	CON	CON
554	38	Devon Central	Mel Stride	71,204	75.7	52.24	16.61	22.00	0.00	5.33	3.81	CON	CON
566	26	Dorset North	Robert Walter	73,698	73.5	51.81	15.09	24.62	0.00	5.19	3.29	CON	CON
569	23	Christchurch	Christopher Chope	68,861	71.8	57.19	19.53	12.90	0.00	0.00	10.38	CON	CON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2010. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.