South West: Majority Sorted Seats

This page shows all the seats in South West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Plymouth Moor View, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Christchurch, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to St Ives (prediction: LIB), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Exeter (prediction: CON).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of South West seats with predictions

Lab Seats	Con Seats	Seat	MP at 2005	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	NAT %	MIN %	OTH %	2005 Win	Pred Win
199	379	Plymouth Moor View	Alison Seabeck	68,120	57.6	38.53	34.50	13.55	0.00	6.88	6.54	LAB	CON
218	360	Exeter	Ben Bradshaw	77,112	64.8	39.23	32.42	15.73	0.00	0.00	12.62	LAB	CON
263	315	Plymouth Sutton and Devonport	Linda Gilroy	71,929	56.9	42.49	29.91	16.33	0.00	1.52	9.75	LAB	CON
309	269	Camborne and Redruth	Julia Goldsworthy	60,635	67.1	38.00	19.62	30.97	0.00	0.00	11.41	LIB	CON
313	265	Dorset South	Jim Knight	70,668	68.7	50.22	31.27	11.07	0.00	3.23	4.22	LAB	CON
374	203	St Ives	Andrew George	64,159	67.5	39.03	6.01	44.19	0.00	0.00	10.77	LIB	LIB
389	189	St Austell and Newquay	Unknown (new seat)	70,491	64.6	43.29	7.04	40.00	0.00	1.60	8.06	LIB	CON
392	186	Bournemouth West	Sir John Butterfill	68,074	55.9	49.88	13.02	29.55	0.00	0.00	7.56	CON	CON
397	180	Yeovil	David Laws	78,890	64.4	42.85	5.28	45.61	0.00	0.00	6.26	LIB	LIB
398	180	Cornwall North	Dan Rogerson	65,008	64.5	43.89	6.13	38.49	0.00	5.97	5.52	LIB	CON
399	179	Newton Abbot	Richard Younger-Ross	67,548	68.6	43.38	5.57	41.53	0.00	0.00	9.51	LIB	CON
400	178	Truro and Falmouth	Matthew Taylor	64,651	65.3	45.53	7.48	38.31	0.00	0.00	8.67	LIB	CON
414	164	Torbay	Adrian Sanders	74,761	62.0	46.85	6.95	35.97	0.00	0.00	10.23	LIB	CON
416	162	Devon North	Nick Harvey	72,195	68.1	44.43	4.33	40.50	0.00	0.00	10.74	LIB	CON
419	159	Dorset Mid and Poole North	Annette Brooke	62,778	69.0	45.13	5.01	44.35	0.00	0.00	5.51	LIB	CON
422	156	Bridgwater and West Somerset	Ian Liddell-Grainger	79,790	63.8	56.41	15.56	17.99	0.00	0.00	10.05	CON	CON
424	154	Cornwall South East	Colin Breed	69,077	66.2	46.25	5.23	38.39	0.00	5.51	4.62	LIB	CON
443	135	Devon West and Torridge	Unknown (changed seat)	72,133	70.1	48.53	5.49	32.99	0.00	0.00	12.99	LIB	CON
464	114	Devon South West	Gary Streeter	68,405	68.6	58.94	13.28	18.04	0.00	0.00	9.73	CON	CON
475	103	Totnes	Anthony Steen	67,366	67.3	52.49	5.41	33.36	0.00	0.00	8.74	CON	CON
479	99	Taunton Deane	Jeremy Browne	81,464	69.7	53.07	5.69	37.28	0.00	0.00	3.95	LIB	CON
481	97	Wells	David Heathcoat-Amory	77,842	68.0	55.05	7.54	31.87	0.00	0.00	5.54	CON	CON
484	94	Somerton and Frome	David Heath	76,585	69.3	52.72	4.87	37.87	0.00	0.00	4.55	LIB	CON
487	91	Tiverton and Honiton	Angela Browning	73,214	69.6	56.37	8.10	22.21	0.00	0.00	13.32	CON	CON
490	88	Bournemouth East	Tobias Ellwood	70,886	58.3	57.66	8.90	25.06	0.00	0.00	8.38	CON	CON
495	83	Dorset North	Robert Walter	70,654	70.9	54.42	5.01	31.33	0.00	0.00	9.24	CON	CON
510	68	Dorset West	Oliver Letwin	69,764	76.3	54.67	3.73	35.96	0.00	0.00	5.64	CON	CON
514	64	Poole	Robert Syms	66,518	63.7	61.64	10.61	20.45	0.00	0.00	7.30	CON	CON
517	61	Devon Central	Unknown (new seat)	66,993	69.2	56.27	4.94	27.19	0.00	0.00	11.59	CON	CON
538	40	Devon East	Hugo Swire	70,502	68.9	60.57	7.21	21.54	0.00	0.00	10.68	CON	CON
573	5	Christchurch	Christopher Chope	66,670	69.7	67.12	7.37	18.76	0.00	0.00	6.75	CON	CON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2005. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.