South: Majority Sorted Seats

This page shows all the seats in South sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Slough, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Surrey East, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Portsmouth North (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Southampton Test (prediction: CON).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of South seats with predictions

Lab Seats	Con Seats	Seat	MP at 2005	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	NAT %	MIN %	OTH %	2005 Win	Pred Win
184	394	Slough	Fiona Mactaggart	75,694	52.5	38.16	36.08	12.34	0.00	0.00	13.43	LAB	CON
192	386	Southampton Itchen	John Denham	72,445	54.8	40.76	37.89	14.72	0.00	0.00	6.63	LAB	CON
207	371	Southampton Test	Alan Whitehead	71,124	57.3	38.74	33.51	18.40	0.00	0.00	9.35	LAB	CON
254	324	Reading West	Martin Salter	70,529	61.0	46.03	34.84	11.14	0.00	0.00	8.00	LAB	CON
342	236	Portsmouth North	Sarah McCarthy-Fry	68,872	59.7	51.16	28.18	14.24	0.00	0.00	6.41	LAB	CON
356	222	Reading East	Rob Wilson	71,480	60.3	49.00	23.46	18.42	0.00	0.00	9.12	CON	CON
369	209	Basingstoke	Maria Miller	69,353	63.0	52.68	22.07	16.07	0.00	0.00	9.17	CON	CON
380	198	Portsmouth South	Mike Hancock	64,981	56.9	46.89	12.00	35.79	0.00	0.00	5.31	LIB	CON
388	190	Gosport	Peter Viggers	71,121	60.5	57.29	21.09	11.67	0.00	0.00	9.95	CON	CON
409	169	Havant	David Willetts	68,002	60.3	57.70	18.37	14.28	0.00	0.00	9.65	CON	CON
417	161	Eastleigh	Christopher Huhne	74,263	64.8	50.63	10.52	32.40	0.00	0.00	6.44	LIB	CON
434	144	Winchester	Mark Oaten	71,572	71.2	46.13	4.44	46.09	0.00	0.00	3.35	LIB	CON
450	128	Bracknell	Andrew Mackay	72,760	63.4	62.14	18.41	12.95	0.00	0.00	6.50	CON	CON
467	111	Aldershot	Gerald Howarth	66,122	61.3	57.31	11.38	22.62	0.00	0.00	8.70	CON	CON
469	109	Spelthorne	David Wilshire	69,650	61.5	63.11	16.91	12.01	0.00	0.00	7.97	CON	CON
472	106	Romsey and Southampton North	Sandra Gidley	66,540	68.1	52.27	5.66	36.79	0.00	0.00	5.27	LIB	CON
474	104	Meon Valley	Unknown (new seat)	68,533	68.9	51.97	5.11	36.19	0.00	0.00	6.73	CON	CON
480	98	Guildford	Unknown (changed seat)	73,824	68.4	52.27	4.84	37.42	0.00	0.00	5.47	LIB	CON
483	95	Fareham	Mark Hoban	72,600	66.9	63.06	15.25	15.78	0.00	0.00	5.91	CON	CON
496	82	Esher and Walton	Ian Taylor	76,926	62.2	58.81	9.36	23.63	0.00	0.00	8.21	CON	CON
506	72	Reigate	Crispin Blunt	67,528	64.9	62.17	11.52	16.65	0.00	0.00	9.66	CON	CON
519	59	Woking	Humfrey Malins	72,676	63.4	59.20	7.85	27.12	0.00	0.00	5.83	CON	CON
522	56	Runnymede and Weybridge	Philip Hammond	74,172	58.7	64.21	12.64	12.55	0.00	0.00	10.60	CON	CON
528	50	Wokingham	John Redwood	69,745	67.2	59.38	7.22	26.66	0.00	0.00	6.74	CON	CON
531	47	Hampshire North East	James Arbuthnot	68,361	63.9	63.49	10.90	18.79	0.00	0.00	6.83	CON	CON
533	45	Isle of Wight	Andrew Turner	109,045	61.3	61.09	8.27	23.59	0.00	0.00	7.05	CON	CON
537	41	Hampshire North West	Sir George Young	75,727	64.3	63.65	10.35	19.07	0.00	0.00	6.93	CON	CON
539	39	Newbury	Richard Benyon	74,800	72.0	56.33	2.86	36.68	0.00	0.00	4.13	CON	CON
541	37	New Forest East	Julian Lewis	71,345	65.9	59.62	5.88	27.27	0.00	0.00	7.23	CON	CON
547	31	Windsor	Adam Afriyie	66,759	63.9	62.88	8.28	19.38	0.00	0.00	9.46	CON	CON
552	26	Surrey South West	Jeremy Hunt	74,720	71.7	58.97	3.72	33.39	0.00	0.00	3.92	CON	CON
553	25	Surrey Heath	Michael Gove	76,091	62.9	63.42	8.04	22.90	0.00	0.00	5.64	CON	CON
558	20	Maidenhead	Theresa May	69,087	71.1	60.56	4.20	30.69	0.00	0.00	4.55	CON	CON
561	17	Hampshire East	Michael Mates	70,430	65.9	62.91	5.85	27.59	0.00	0.00	3.66	CON	CON
568	10	Epsom and Ewell	Chris Grayling	73,704	66.0	67.92	9.46	16.04	0.00	0.00	6.58	CON	CON
570	8	Mole Valley	Sir Paul Beresford	68,180	72.5	64.18	5.17	24.54	0.00	0.00	6.11	CON	CON
572	6	New Forest West	Desmond Swayne	66,521	66.5	67.40	7.97	13.53	0.00	0.00	11.09	CON	CON
575	3	Surrey East	Peter Ainsworth	73,945	66.6	67.29	7.12	17.89	0.00	0.00	7.69	CON	CON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2005. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.