South: Majority Sorted Seats

This page shows all the seats in South sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Slough, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Surrey South West, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Reading West (prediction: LAB), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Southampton Itchen (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of South seats with predictions

Lab Seats	Con Seats	Seat	MP at 2010	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	UKIP %	NAT %	MIN %	OTH %	2010 Win	Pred Win
194	399	Slough	Fiona Mactaggart	77,068	61.9	24.32	52.08	3.07	16.50	0.00	0.00	4.03	LAB	LAB
235	358	Southampton Test	Alan Whitehead	71,931	61.4	23.06	45.97	6.55	19.90	0.00	0.00	4.51	LAB	LAB
266	327	Southampton Itchen	John Denham	74,532	59.6	26.38	44.26	5.07	20.34	0.00	0.00	3.96	LAB	LAB
352	241	Reading West	Alok Sharma	72,118	65.9	33.23	38.04	4.31	19.17	0.00	0.00	5.25	CON	LAB
370	223	Portsmouth North	Penny Mordaunt	70,329	62.7	34.33	35.25	4.34	20.10	0.00	0.00	5.98	CON	LAB
371	222	Reading East	Rob Wilson	74,922	66.7	32.60	32.96	11.56	18.17	0.00	0.00	4.70	CON	LAB
375	217	Portsmouth South	Mike Hancock	70,242	58.7	23.30	21.17	30.08	18.12	0.00	0.00	7.33	LIB	LIB
422	170	Eastleigh	Christopher Huhne	77,435	69.3	29.38	17.10	30.76	19.60	0.00	0.00	3.15	LIB	LIB
426	167	Basingstoke	Maria Miller	75,470	67.1	40.57	27.88	8.73	20.10	0.00	0.00	2.72	CON	CON
430	163	Spelthorne	Kwasi Kwarteng	70,479	67.1	37.11	23.96	10.11	24.47	0.00	0.00	4.35	CON	CON
459	134	Havant	David Willetts	69,712	63.0	41.15	25.21	7.63	21.94	0.00	0.00	4.07	CON	CON
471	122	Aldershot	Gerald Howarth	71,469	63.5	36.77	19.59	18.64	20.49	0.00	0.00	4.51	CON	CON
473	120	Gosport	Caroline Dinenage	72,720	64.5	41.82	24.42	5.29	19.18	0.00	0.00	9.29	CON	CON
476	117	Isle of Wight	Andrew Turner	109,966	63.9	36.75	19.12	15.94	19.46	0.00	0.00	8.73	CON	CON
481	112	Bracknell	Phillip Lee	76,885	67.8	42.47	24.29	6.52	20.40	0.00	0.00	6.32	CON	CON
531	62	Fareham	Mark Hoban	75,878	71.6	45.32	21.70	8.05	20.11	0.00	0.00	4.82	CON	CON
536	57	Reigate	Crispin Blunt	71,604	69.8	43.45	18.85	10.43	20.18	0.00	0.00	7.10	CON	CON
538	55	Woking	Jonathan Lord	73,838	71.5	40.35	15.54	21.63	19.78	0.00	0.00	2.70	CON	CON
541	52	Runnymede and Weybridge	Philip Hammond	72,566	66.4	45.95	20.88	5.84	22.53	0.00	0.00	4.80	CON	CON
543	50	Wokingham	John Redwood	76,219	71.5	42.78	17.61	12.22	19.05	0.00	0.00	8.34	CON	CON
545	48	New Forest East	Julian Lewis	72,858	68.7	42.90	17.32	14.48	21.03	0.00	0.00	4.28	CON	CON
546	47	Winchester	Steve Brine	73,806	75.8	38.58	12.95	27.31	18.03	0.00	0.00	3.13	CON	CON
548	45	Romsey and Southampton North	Caroline Nokes	66,901	73.2	39.80	13.86	25.48	18.63	0.00	0.00	2.23	CON	CON
554	39	Epsom and Ewell	Chris Grayling	78,104	70.4	46.22	19.39	11.04	20.64	0.00	0.00	2.71	CON	CON
560	33	Hampshire North West	Sir George Young	76,040	70.1	48.36	20.59	7.66	21.16	0.00	0.00	2.23	CON	CON
575	18	Surrey Heath	Michael Gove	77,690	70.0	47.69	17.71	10.05	22.31	0.00	0.00	2.23	CON	CON
576	17	Surrey East	Sam Gyimah	76,855	71.1	46.80	16.51	10.09	22.90	0.00	0.00	3.70	CON	CON
577	16	Esher and Walton	Dominic Raab	75,338	72.4	48.97	18.18	9.05	19.27	0.00	0.00	4.53	CON	CON
578	15	Guildford	Anne Milton	77,082	72.1	43.35	12.56	23.52	17.83	0.00	0.00	2.73	CON	CON
579	14	Hampshire East	Damian Hinds	72,250	71.0	46.83	15.38	14.70	18.88	0.00	0.00	4.22	CON	CON
580	13	New Forest West	Desmond Swayne	68,332	69.6	48.87	17.31	7.53	21.85	0.00	0.00	4.46	CON	CON
584	9	Meon Valley	George Hollingbery	70,488	72.7	46.29	13.87	16.81	18.90	0.00	0.00	4.12	CON	CON
585	8	Mole Valley	Sir Paul Beresford	72,612	74.8	47.60	14.50	12.96	21.06	0.00	0.00	3.88	CON	CON
586	7	Hampshire North East	James Arbuthnot	72,196	73.3	50.64	17.27	9.69	20.18	0.00	0.00	2.23	CON	CON
587	6	Windsor	Adam Afriyie	69,511	71.3	50.90	17.40	6.65	19.25	0.00	0.00	5.81	CON	CON
589	4	Newbury	Richard Benyon	78,329	74.8	46.47	11.77	19.74	18.51	0.00	0.00	3.50	CON	CON
590	3	Maidenhead	Theresa May	72,844	73.7	49.50	14.56	12.46	18.31	0.00	0.00	5.17	CON	CON
591	2	Surrey South West	Jeremy Hunt	77,980	73.4	48.74	13.47	14.42	18.59	0.00	0.00	4.78	CON	CON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2010. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.