South: Majority Sorted Seats

This page shows all the seats in South sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Slough, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Surrey South West, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Reading West (prediction: LAB), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Southampton Itchen (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of South seats with predictions

Lab
Seats
Con
Seats
SeatMP at 2010ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
UKIP
%
NAT
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2010
Win
Pred
Win
194399Slough Fiona Mactaggart77,06861.924.3252.083.0716.500.000.004.03LABLAB
235358Southampton Test Alan Whitehead71,93161.423.0645.976.5519.900.000.004.51LABLAB
266327Southampton Itchen John Denham74,53259.626.3844.265.0720.340.000.003.96LABLAB
352241Reading West Alok Sharma72,11865.933.2338.044.3119.170.000.005.25CONLAB
370223Portsmouth North Penny Mordaunt70,32962.734.3335.254.3420.100.000.005.98CONLAB
371222Reading East Rob Wilson74,92266.732.6032.9611.5618.170.000.004.70CONLAB
375217Portsmouth South Mike Hancock70,24258.723.3021.1730.0818.120.000.007.33LIBLIB
422170Eastleigh Christopher Huhne77,43569.329.3817.1030.7619.600.000.003.15LIBLIB
426167Basingstoke Maria Miller75,47067.140.5727.888.7320.100.000.002.72CONCON
430163Spelthorne Kwasi Kwarteng70,47967.137.1123.9610.1124.470.000.004.35CONCON
459134Havant David Willetts69,71263.041.1525.217.6321.940.000.004.07CONCON
471122Aldershot Gerald Howarth71,46963.536.7719.5918.6420.490.000.004.51CONCON
473120Gosport Caroline Dinenage72,72064.541.8224.425.2919.180.000.009.29CONCON
476117Isle of Wight Andrew Turner109,96663.936.7519.1215.9419.460.000.008.73CONCON
481112Bracknell Phillip Lee76,88567.842.4724.296.5220.400.000.006.32CONCON
53162Fareham Mark Hoban75,87871.645.3221.708.0520.110.000.004.82CONCON
53657Reigate Crispin Blunt71,60469.843.4518.8510.4320.180.000.007.10CONCON
53855Woking Jonathan Lord73,83871.540.3515.5421.6319.780.000.002.70CONCON
54152Runnymede and Weybridge Philip Hammond72,56666.445.9520.885.8422.530.000.004.80CONCON
54350Wokingham John Redwood76,21971.542.7817.6112.2219.050.000.008.34CONCON
54548New Forest East Julian Lewis72,85868.742.9017.3214.4821.030.000.004.28CONCON
54647Winchester Steve Brine73,80675.838.5812.9527.3118.030.000.003.13CONCON
54845Romsey and Southampton North Caroline Nokes66,90173.239.8013.8625.4818.630.000.002.23CONCON
55439Epsom and Ewell Chris Grayling78,10470.446.2219.3911.0420.640.000.002.71CONCON
56033Hampshire North West Sir George Young76,04070.148.3620.597.6621.160.000.002.23CONCON
57518Surrey Heath Michael Gove77,69070.047.6917.7110.0522.310.000.002.23CONCON
57617Surrey East Sam Gyimah76,85571.146.8016.5110.0922.900.000.003.70CONCON
57716Esher and Walton Dominic Raab75,33872.448.9718.189.0519.270.000.004.53CONCON
57815Guildford Anne Milton77,08272.143.3512.5623.5217.830.000.002.73CONCON
57914Hampshire East Damian Hinds72,25071.046.8315.3814.7018.880.000.004.22CONCON
58013New Forest West Desmond Swayne68,33269.648.8717.317.5321.850.000.004.46CONCON
5849Meon Valley George Hollingbery70,48872.746.2913.8716.8118.900.000.004.12CONCON
5858Mole Valley Sir Paul Beresford72,61274.847.6014.5012.9621.060.000.003.88CONCON
5867Hampshire North East James Arbuthnot72,19673.350.6417.279.6920.180.000.002.23CONCON
5876Windsor Adam Afriyie69,51171.350.9017.406.6519.250.000.005.81CONCON
5894Newbury Richard Benyon78,32974.846.4711.7719.7418.510.000.003.50CONCON
5903Maidenhead Theresa May72,84473.749.5014.5612.4618.310.000.005.17CONCON
5912Surrey South West Jeremy Hunt77,98073.448.7413.4714.4218.590.000.004.78CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2010. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.