South: Majority Sorted Seats

This page shows all the seats in South sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Slough, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Surrey South West, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Reading West (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Southampton Itchen (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of South seats with predictions

Lab Seats	Con Seats	Seat	MP at 2010	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	NAT %	MIN %	OTH %	2010 Win	Pred Win
190	402	Slough	Fiona Mactaggart	77,068	61.9	34.84	53.10	5.32	0.00	0.00	6.75	LAB	LAB
224	368	Southampton Test	Alan Whitehead	71,931	61.4	33.79	48.46	9.64	0.00	0.00	8.11	LAB	LAB
256	336	Southampton Itchen	John Denham	74,532	59.6	37.11	46.74	8.15	0.00	0.00	8.00	LAB	LAB
333	259	Reading West	Alok Sharma	72,118	65.9	43.96	40.53	7.40	0.00	0.00	8.12	CON	CON
355	237	Portsmouth North	Penny Mordaunt	70,329	62.7	45.05	37.74	7.43	0.00	0.00	9.79	CON	CON
357	235	Reading East	Rob Wilson	74,922	66.7	43.33	35.45	14.65	0.00	0.00	6.58	CON	CON
362	230	Portsmouth South	Mike Hancock	70,242	58.7	34.03	23.65	33.16	0.00	0.00	9.15	LIB	CON
413	179	Eastleigh	Christopher Huhne	77,435	69.3	40.11	19.59	33.85	0.00	0.00	6.46	LIB	CON
416	176	Basingstoke	Maria Miller	75,470	67.1	51.30	30.37	11.82	0.00	4.10	2.42	CON	CON
421	171	Spelthorne	Kwasi Kwarteng	70,479	67.1	47.84	26.45	13.19	0.00	0.00	12.52	CON	CON
454	138	Havant	David Willetts	69,712	63.0	51.87	27.70	10.71	0.00	0.00	9.72	CON	CON
466	126	Aldershot	Gerald Howarth	71,469	63.5	47.50	22.08	21.72	0.00	4.50	4.21	CON	CON
468	124	Gosport	Caroline Dinenage	72,720	64.5	52.55	26.91	8.37	0.00	0.00	12.17	CON	CON
470	122	Isle of Wight	Andrew Turner	109,966	63.9	47.47	21.61	19.02	0.00	0.00	11.89	CON	CON
476	116	Bracknell	Phillip Lee	76,885	67.8	53.19	26.78	9.61	0.00	0.00	10.43	CON	CON
530	62	Fareham	Mark Hoban	75,878	71.6	56.05	24.19	11.13	0.00	0.00	8.63	CON	CON
535	57	Reigate	Crispin Blunt	71,604	69.8	54.18	21.33	13.52	0.00	0.00	10.97	CON	CON
537	55	Woking	Jonathan Lord	73,838	71.5	51.08	18.03	24.72	0.00	0.00	6.18	CON	CON
539	53	Runnymede and Weybridge	Philip Hammond	72,566	66.4	56.68	23.37	8.92	0.00	0.00	11.03	CON	CON
541	51	Wokingham	John Redwood	76,219	71.5	53.51	20.10	15.30	0.00	0.00	11.09	CON	CON
544	48	New Forest East	Julian Lewis	72,858	68.7	53.63	19.81	17.56	0.00	0.00	9.01	CON	CON
545	47	Winchester	Steve Brine	73,806	75.8	49.31	15.44	30.39	0.00	0.00	4.86	CON	CON
546	46	Romsey and Southampton North	Caroline Nokes	66,901	73.2	50.52	16.35	28.56	0.00	0.00	4.56	CON	CON
553	39	Epsom and Ewell	Chris Grayling	78,104	70.4	56.95	21.88	14.12	0.00	0.00	7.05	CON	CON
558	34	Hampshire North West	Sir George Young	76,040	70.1	59.08	23.08	10.75	0.00	0.00	7.09	CON	CON
573	19	Surrey Heath	Michael Gove	77,690	70.0	58.42	20.20	13.14	0.00	0.00	8.24	CON	CON
575	17	Surrey East	Sam Gyimah	76,855	71.1	57.53	19.00	13.18	0.00	0.00	10.30	CON	CON
576	16	Esher and Walton	Dominic Raab	75,338	72.4	59.69	20.67	12.14	0.00	0.00	7.50	CON	CON
577	15	Guildford	Anne Milton	77,082	72.1	54.08	15.04	26.61	0.00	0.00	4.27	CON	CON
578	14	Hampshire East	Damian Hinds	72,250	71.0	57.56	17.86	17.79	0.00	0.00	6.79	CON	CON
579	13	New Forest West	Desmond Swayne	68,332	69.6	59.59	19.79	10.61	0.00	0.00	10.00	CON	CON
583	9	Meon Valley	George Hollingbery	70,488	72.7	57.02	16.36	19.89	0.00	0.00	6.73	CON	CON
584	8	Mole Valley	Sir Paul Beresford	72,612	74.8	58.33	16.99	16.05	0.00	0.00	8.64	CON	CON
585	7	Hampshire North East	James Arbuthnot	72,196	73.3	61.37	19.75	12.77	0.00	0.00	6.11	CON	CON
586	6	Windsor	Adam Afriyie	69,511	71.3	61.62	19.88	9.73	0.00	0.00	8.76	CON	CON
587	5	Newbury	Richard Benyon	78,329	74.8	57.20	14.26	22.83	0.00	0.00	5.71	CON	CON
588	4	Maidenhead	Theresa May	72,844	73.7	60.23	17.05	15.55	0.00	0.00	7.18	CON	CON
589	3	Surrey South West	Jeremy Hunt	77,980	73.4	59.47	15.95	17.50	0.00	0.00	7.08	CON	CON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2010. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.