South East: Majority Sorted Seats

This page shows all the seats in South East sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Brighton Pavilion, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Folkestone and Hythe, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Hastings and Rye (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Brighton Pavilion (prediction: CON).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of South East seats with predictions

Lab Seats	Con Seats	Seat	MP at 2005	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	NAT %	MIN %	OTH %	2005 Win	Pred Win
241	337	Brighton Pavilion	David Lepper	69,699	63.6	35.69	25.63	11.22	0.00	20.87	6.59	LAB	CON
259	319	Dover	Gwyn Prosser	71,467	67.5	47.27	35.07	11.12	0.00	0.00	6.54	LAB	CON
270	308	Chatham and Aylesford	Jonathan Shaw	66,737	59.7	48.06	34.74	9.76	0.00	0.00	7.43	LAB	CON
300	278	Brighton Kemptown	Desmond Turner	64,019	60.3	46.67	29.17	11.93	0.00	0.64	11.59	LAB	CON
311	267	Dartford	Howard Stoate	71,682	63.2	51.99	33.37	6.38	0.00	0.00	8.25	LAB	CON
326	252	Hastings and Rye	Michael Foster	76,254	59.5	50.98	30.14	10.93	0.00	0.00	7.95	LAB	CON
333	245	Sittingbourne and Sheppey	Unknown (changed seat)	66,489	64.9	53.38	31.26	9.07	0.00	0.00	6.29	CON	CON
334	244	Hove	Celia Barlow	70,296	64.0	49.26	27.05	12.66	0.00	0.07	10.96	LAB	CON
337	241	Crawley	Laura Moffatt	71,912	58.4	51.25	28.73	10.89	0.00	0.00	9.13	LAB	CON
340	238	Gillingham and Rainham	Unknown (changed seat)	70,517	62.5	53.02	30.26	10.77	0.00	0.00	5.95	CON	CON
341	237	Gravesham	Adam Holloway	68,704	65.8	54.78	31.87	7.55	0.00	0.00	5.80	CON	CON
344	234	Thanet South	Unknown (changed seat)	70,223	64.3	53.20	30.17	8.34	0.00	0.00	8.29	CON	CON
347	231	Rochester and Strood	Unknown (changed seat)	72,734	61.0	54.45	31.18	8.46	0.00	0.00	5.91	CON	CON
404	174	Thanet North	Roger Gale	67,326	60.5	59.53	21.21	10.92	0.00	0.00	8.35	CON	CON
404	173	Lewes	Norman Baker	66,977	69.3	42.92	4.34	46.29	0.00	0.00	6.46	LIB	LIB
415	163	Canterbury	Julian Brazier	70,084	66.0	57.69	17.59	15.79	0.00	0.00	8.93	CON	CON
437	141	Worthing East and Shoreham	Tim Loughton	72,270	61.6	57.22	15.14	18.41	0.00	0.00	9.23	CON	CON
448	130	Faversham and Kent Mid	Hugh Robertson	64,999	65.7	62.46	18.99	11.12	0.00	0.00	7.43	CON	CON
460	118	Bognor Regis and Littlehampton	Nick Gibb	69,008	62.4	58.91	14.37	16.12	0.00	0.00	10.60	CON	CON
473	105	Ashford	Damien Green	75,580	65.0	63.10	16.33	11.21	0.00	0.00	9.36	CON	CON
477	101	Eastbourne	Nigel Waterson	73,889	64.9	52.52	5.28	35.52	0.00	0.00	6.68	CON	CON
518	60	Worthing West	Peter Bottomley	71,812	62.6	60.58	9.24	20.77	0.00	0.00	9.41	CON	CON
524	54	Chichester	Andrew Tyrie	77,862	66.7	60.66	9.01	21.57	0.00	0.00	8.75	CON	CON
527	51	Sussex Mid	Nicholas Soames	74,878	68.6	58.18	6.20	30.11	0.00	0.00	5.50	CON	CON
530	48	Tonbridge and Malling	Sir John Stanley	68,444	67.3	66.09	13.52	13.70	0.00	0.00	6.68	CON	CON
532	46	Horsham	Francis Maude	74,566	67.3	61.07	8.39	21.43	0.00	0.00	9.10	CON	CON
534	44	Maidstone and The Weald	Ann Widdecombe	67,614	65.8	64.79	11.95	17.53	0.00	0.00	5.73	CON	CON
540	38	Wealden	Charles Hendry	74,345	67.7	62.12	8.49	18.82	0.00	0.00	10.56	CON	CON
543	35	Sevenoaks	Michael Fallon	67,453	66.4	64.55	10.15	17.26	0.00	0.00	8.04	CON	CON
544	34	Tunbridge Wells	Greg Clark	68,936	65.8	64.27	9.82	19.48	0.00	0.00	6.43	CON	CON
550	28	Arundel and South Downs	Nick Herbert	73,543	68.3	62.94	7.97	20.42	0.00	0.00	8.66	CON	CON
567	11	Bexhill and Battle	Greg Barker	74,934	67.2	66.70	8.28	16.61	0.00	0.00	8.41	CON	CON
569	9	Folkestone and Hythe	Michael Howard	74,822	68.2	64.69	5.93	23.35	0.00	0.00	6.03	CON	CON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2005. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.