South East: Majority Sorted Seats

This page shows all the seats in South East sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Brighton Pavilion, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Arundel and South Downs, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Dover (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Brighton Pavilion (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of South East seats with predictions

Lab Seats	Con Seats	Seat	MP at 2010	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	NAT %	MIN %	OTH %	2010 Win	Pred Win
242	350	Brighton Pavilion	Caroline Lucas	74,004	70.0	24.22	35.81	5.05	0.00	31.33	3.60	MIN	LAB
279	313	Hove	Mike Weatherley	71,708	69.5	37.50	42.95	9.87	0.00	0.00	9.67	CON	LAB
281	311	Brighton Kemptown	Simon Kirby	66,017	64.7	38.68	43.85	6.58	0.00	5.46	5.43	CON	LAB
294	298	Hastings and Rye	Amber Rudd	78,000	63.9	41.70	44.93	5.74	0.00	0.00	7.63	CON	LAB
331	261	Dover	Charlie Elphicke	71,832	70.1	44.62	41.43	5.78	0.00	0.00	8.17	CON	CON
345	247	Crawley	Henry Smith	72,781	65.3	45.32	39.47	5.27	0.00	0.00	9.94	CON	CON
356	236	Chatham and Aylesford	Tracey Crouch	71,122	61.6	46.70	38.97	4.87	0.00	0.00	9.46	CON	CON
359	233	Thanet South	Laura Sandys	71,596	64.2	48.58	38.94	5.52	0.00	0.00	6.96	CON	CON
361	231	Gillingham and Rainham	Rehman Chishti	70,865	66.0	46.92	36.72	6.63	0.00	0.00	9.73	CON	CON
370	222	Rochester and Strood	Mark Reckless	73,882	64.9	49.84	36.57	5.94	0.00	0.00	7.65	CON	CON
373	219	Gravesham	Adam Holloway	70,195	67.4	49.05	35.48	4.86	0.00	0.00	10.61	CON	CON
380	212	Dartford	Gareth Johnson	76,271	65.7	49.35	34.89	5.37	0.00	0.00	10.38	CON	CON
400	192	Sittingbourne and Sheppey	Gordon Henderson	75,354	64.5	50.69	32.72	5.98	0.00	0.00	10.62	CON	CON
405	187	Canterbury	Julian Brazier	76,808	64.1	45.59	26.12	19.83	0.00	0.00	8.47	CON	CON
431	161	Thanet North	Roger Gale	69,432	62.4	53.42	31.13	7.08	0.00	0.00	8.37	CON	CON
433	158	Lewes	Norman Baker	68,708	72.9	37.52	14.99	39.32	0.00	3.45	4.73	LIB	LIB
434	158	Worthing East and Shoreham	Tim Loughton	74,001	65.4	49.25	26.69	12.84	0.00	0.00	11.22	CON	CON
481	111	Eastbourne	Stephen Lloyd	77,840	67.0	41.49	14.77	34.62	0.00	2.55	6.57	LIB	CON
492	100	Bognor Regis and Littlehampton	Nick Gibb	70,812	66.2	52.19	24.03	10.84	0.00	0.00	12.94	CON	CON
494	98	Ashford	Damien Green	81,269	67.9	54.92	26.66	10.11	0.00	4.54	3.77	CON	CON
500	92	Maidstone and The Weald	Helen Grant	71,041	68.9	48.79	19.73	23.29	0.00	0.00	8.19	CON	CON
505	87	Folkestone and Hythe	Damian Collins	78,003	67.7	50.23	20.81	17.59	0.00	0.00	11.37	CON	CON
516	76	Bexhill and Battle	Greg Barker	79,208	68.9	52.34	21.93	15.28	0.00	4.94	5.50	CON	CON
519	73	Faversham and Kent Mid	Hugh Robertson	68,858	67.8	56.96	26.38	7.17	0.00	0.00	9.49	CON	CON
522	70	Worthing West	Peter Bottomley	75,945	64.7	52.52	21.79	15.17	0.00	0.00	10.52	CON	CON
548	44	Sevenoaks	Michael Fallon	69,591	71.0	57.60	23.22	8.69	0.00	0.00	10.49	CON	CON
552	40	Sussex Mid	Nicholas Soames	77,182	72.4	51.50	16.59	24.78	0.00	0.00	7.14	CON	CON
555	37	Chichester	Andrew Tyrie	81,462	69.7	56.12	20.44	14.69	0.00	0.00	8.75	CON	CON
559	33	Horsham	Francis Maude	76,835	72.7	53.51	17.48	19.52	0.00	0.00	9.48	CON	CON
563	29	Tonbridge and Malling	Sir John Stanley	71,790	71.5	58.70	22.60	9.81	0.00	0.00	8.88	CON	CON
564	28	Tunbridge Wells	Greg Clark	72,042	69.8	57.02	20.81	12.60	0.00	0.00	9.57	CON	CON
571	21	Wealden	Charles Hendry	76,537	71.8	57.34	19.56	12.62	0.00	0.00	10.48	CON	CON
580	12	Arundel and South Downs	Nick Herbert	77,564	72.2	58.53	18.62	15.25	0.00	5.67	1.93	CON	CON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2010. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.