General Election 2024

Our online store is now open: click here to buy and download your seat's data, or for a free sample.

Electoral Calculus has a unique new data service designed for general election candidates, local parties and campaigners. Data are available on an individual seat level, and are powered by large-scale MRP polling, and supported by Electoral Calculus detailed database of previous election results. Data include voting intention, likelihood to switch, and popular local political issues and policies.

Data are available at several geographical levels, giving insights you can use for campaigning, message targeting, and 'get out the vote' efforts. These predictions use our modern regression methods (known as MRP) to give estimates for turnout, voting intention and political priorities in every ward and output area in your seat.

Voting intention predictions are based on the dynamic Electoral Calculus election predictions, and are updated at least once a month. These live predictions are a blend of our own custom MRP polling, plus recent information from other national opinion polls, to ensure an up-to-date and detailed prediction across all seats.

Other data is based on custom MRP polling that we conduct periodically with by pollster Find Out Now. In a large sample of over 18,000 respondents across the country in January and February, we asked respondents about voting intention and their top three political priorities, such as health, immigration, etc, as well as popular policies and likelihood to switch vote.

Data are shown firstly by for the whole seat overall, and then by the local council wards, in local district or borough, or unitary, councils. There are around 8,400 wards in the UK, with an average of 5,600 voters in each one. Wards are naturally sub-parts of the new parliamentary seats, so information gained at a ward level can be very helpful for the ultimate analysis of an entire seat, and also provides valuable campaign information.

The most detailed geographical level is the Census output area, which is the finest level of census reporting. These output areas are very small, consisting of around one to three streets or a few postcodes. There are over two hundred thousand of them in Britain, with an average of 200 voters in each one. Output areas can be a powerful way to target messaging by post, telephone or direct canvassing.

Two versions of the data are available now:

Standard dataset

This includes voting intention and likelihood to switch, past political data for each area in the seat, as well as recent census data. Specifically:

• Voting intention and turnout : the predicted results of the next general election in each neighbourhood, plus an estimate of the likely turnout. These figures can help you identify where your supporters can be found, and help you to get out the vote. These estimates are based on MRP polling and Electoral Calculus modelling, and are updated monthly to keep you up-to-date with changing public attitudes. In 2019, Electoral Calculus made the most accurate pre-poll prediction of the election result.
• Floating voters : see where persuadable voters are most concentrated
• Results data : Implied results of the 2019 general election in the wards and output areas of the new seat, plus our estimates for the 2016 EU Referendum result, and our proprietary 3D Political Attitudes.
• Census data : Also basic data from the 2021 Census data by ward and output area for eight key census questions, which are the most relevant for determining political attitudes. These are National Identity, Health, Country of Birth, Education status, Occupation type, Socio-economic Classification, Age, and Social Grade. These data are freely provided by the ONS by (2021) ward and output area and can be directly obtained from them if desired. Scottish data is still based on the 2011 census.

Price for Baseline data : £300 per seat.

Premium dataset

The premium dataset includes all the contents of the 'Standard' package, plus detailed insight about voters political attitudes to various policies and issues. These include:

• Salient issues : the issues which are most important to voters in each neighbourhood, such as the economy, health, immigration, environment, housing and crime. These detailed figures let you target campaign resources and messaging to where they are likely to be best received.
• Policies : discover which policies are most popular in each small area. Policies include nationalising utilities, house building, Rwanda, euthanasia, and tax/spending. These figures show you which policies are popular in each neighbourhood.

Price for Full data : £500 per seat.

Online store

To download the full MRP data for any seat right now, or for a free sample, please visit our online store where you can get your data in a few clicks.

For more details, please contact us at , or 020 3627 8141.