Swing Plot 1997-2001

The chart below shows the swings recorded in each of the 19 mainland regions between the 1997 and 2001 elections. Each region is represented by one point. The x co-ordinate of the point is the swing to or against the Conservatives, the y co-ordinate is the swing to or against the Labour party. A positive number represents a swing towards, and a negative number a swing against.

Election Swing plot 1997-2001

We see that the swings are not very great over this period. The absolute variation of swing between regions is not actually greater than previous years (1992-1997). But since they are based around a much smaller average swing, they are more relatively diffuse. The Uniform National Swing assumption is that these points are tightly clustered. This assumption is the basis for the Battlemap calculations.

We can also see the data in tabular form:

Region 1997 Election 2001 Election Swing
CON%LAB%CON%LAB%CON%LAB%
East Scotland19.938.317.037.2-2.9-1.1
West Scotland14.853.913.951.8-0.8-2.1
North22.260.924.755.72.5-5.2
Lancashire27.355.328.952.31.6-3.0
Greater Manchester24.156.324.353.70.2-2.7
Yorkshire32.048.134.145.12.1-3.0
Humberside27.352.430.349.13.1-3.2
West Midlands29.853.330.651.30.8-2.0
East Midlands33.149.735.246.72.0-3.0
Severn35.744.037.541.21.8-2.8
Wales19.654.721.048.61.4-6.1
East Anglia39.040.541.238.42.3-2.1
Essex41.136.343.035.21.9-1.1
West36.933.137.232.90.3-0.2
North London30.054.229.752.6-0.3-1.6
South London32.345.231.342.6-1.0-2.7
South West36.921.039.820.62.9-0.4
South42.726.043.026.10.30.1
South East41.332.043.132.91.90.9
Total31.444.432.742.01.2-2.4

Details of the regions' makeup can be seen on the file format page. Compare with the 1992-1997 swing.