Swing Plot 1983-1987

The chart below shows the swings recorded in each of the 19 mainland regions between the 1983 and 1987 elections. Each region is represented by one point. The x co-ordinate of the point is the swing to or against the Conservatives, the y co-ordinate is the swing to or against the Labour party. A positive number represents a swing towards, and a negative number a swing against.

Election Swing Plot 1983-1987

Labour gains in every region and particularly in Scotland, Wales and the north of England. The Conservatives lose some support in those areas but also gain support in and around London. This regional polarisation means that the Uniform National Swing assumption did work very well this period, with the gap between the most extreme regions (West Scotland and North London) being over 7% swing difference for both major parties.

We can also see the data in tabular form:

Region 1983 Election 1987 Election Swing

CON% LAB% CON% LAB% CON% LAB%

East Scotland 31.3 27.9 27.3 34.0 -3.9 6.1

West Scotland 25.4 42.5 20.6 51.3 -4.8 8.8

North 34.6 40.2 32.3 46.4 -2.3 6.2

Lancashire 41.4 34.8 37.5 41.0 -3.9 6.2

Greater Manchester 36.2 39.7 35.9 44.0 -0.2 4.4

Yorkshire 42.0 30.9 41.8 35.3 -0.2 4.4

Humberside 38.3 35.6 36.5 41.3 -1.8 5.7

West Midlands 41.7 37.4 42.6 39.8 0.9 2.4

East Midlands 46.2 30.0 47.5 31.9 1.4 1.9

Severn 47.2 26.6 46.8 29.5 -0.5 2.9

Wales 31.0 37.5 29.5 45.1 -1.5 7.5

East Anglia 50.6 21.8 52.4 23.1 1.8 1.3

Essex 52.3 17.5 54.0 18.6 1.7 1.0

West 49.5 19.5 50.3 21.0 0.8 1.5

North London 41.8 33.0 44.8 34.4 3.0 1.4

South London 45.8 26.8 47.8 28.6 2.0 1.8

South West 53.3 10.6 51.4 12.3 -1.9 1.7

South 56.0 13.3 57.1 13.6 1.1 0.3

South East 56.4 15.2 56.4 16.5 0.0 1.3

Total 43.5 28.3 43.3 31.5 -0.2 3.3

Details of the regions' makeup can be seen on the file format page.