London: Majority Sorted Seats

London Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 33.1%21 27.7%51+425
LAB 54.5%49 35.7%06-643
LIB 8.8%3 21.0%20+25
Brexit 0.0%0 8.5%00+00
Green 1.8%0 4.8%00+00
UKIP 1.3%0 0.8%00+00
Other 0.5%0 1.5%00+00

This page shows all the seats in London sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, East Ham, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Orpington, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Kingston and Surbiton (prediction: LIB), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Enfield Southgate (prediction: CON).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of London seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
CON
Seats
SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Brexit
%
Green
%
UKIP
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2017
Win
Pred
Win
3544East Ham Stephen Timms83,82767.616.062.19.37.13.70.70.01.1LABLAB
11536Bethnal Green and Bow Rushanara Ali86,07169.515.456.115.05.56.40.80.00.8LABLAB
12535Tottenham David Lammy72,88367.714.854.815.36.36.80.80.01.2LABLAB
13534Walthamstow Stella Creasy68,14470.616.455.714.66.15.50.70.01.1LABLAB
17530Hackney South and Shoreditch Meg Hillier82,00467.513.851.019.44.78.60.80.01.7LABLAB
19528West Ham Lyn Brown92,24365.818.454.411.98.54.70.80.01.3LABLAB
22525Ilford South Mike Gapes85,35867.521.555.210.77.04.00.70.01.0LABLAB
23524Camberwell and Peckham Harriet Harman85,58667.115.448.519.95.97.70.80.01.7LABLAB
26521Hackney North and Stoke Newington Diane Abbott83,95567.114.846.619.94.411.80.90.01.6LABLAB
28519Poplar and Limehouse Jim Fitzpatrick87,27467.419.851.416.06.34.70.70.00.9LABLAB
30517Lewisham Deptford Vicky Foxcroft78,47270.215.346.220.24.810.60.90.02.0LABLAB
33514Islington North Jeremy Corbyn74,83173.414.744.923.84.99.30.90.01.7LABLAB
36511Brent Central Dawn Butler80,84564.719.948.917.37.54.40.70.01.2LABLAB
38509Edmonton Kate Osamor65,70566.522.650.612.09.13.80.80.01.1LABLAB
39508Leyton and Wanstead John Cryer65,28570.720.447.718.06.25.80.70.01.1LABLAB
40507Croydon North Steve Reed87,46168.220.848.115.08.55.10.80.01.7LABLAB
43504Ealing Southall Virendra Sharma65,18869.321.647.814.87.55.70.70.01.8LABLAB
46501Holborn and St Pancras Keir Starmer88,08867.018.143.322.05.39.10.80.01.4LABLAB
50497Dulwich and West Norwood Helen Hayes77,94772.018.441.925.14.87.30.80.01.7LABLAB
52495Hornsey and Wood Green Catherine West79,94477.915.138.434.94.15.50.70.01.4LABLAB
54493Streatham Chuka Umunna78,53271.019.442.423.45.27.40.80.01.5LABLAB
56491Barking Margaret Hodge77,02061.923.445.610.713.93.71.10.01.6LABLAB
61486Mitcham and Morden Siobhain McDonagh68,70570.023.744.614.710.04.40.80.01.7LABLAB
66481Lewisham East Heidi Alexander68,12669.322.041.919.08.55.30.90.02.3LABLAB
73474Islington South and Finsbury Emily Thornberry69,53469.119.338.227.46.36.60.80.01.3LABLAB
74473Lewisham West and Penge Ellie Reeves72,90273.021.540.421.47.66.30.90.02.0LABLAB
80467Hammersmith Andy Slaughter72,80371.824.242.219.86.55.10.80.01.4LABLAB
82465Greenwich and Woolwich Matthew Pennycook77,19068.822.640.620.67.26.80.80.01.5LABLAB
83464Vauxhall Kate Hoey81,90767.217.935.832.05.06.50.80.02.0LABLAB
85462Ealing North Steve Pound74,76470.226.444.113.89.54.20.80.01.4LABLAB
86461Hayes and Harlington John McDonnell73,26865.226.944.610.711.54.00.80.01.5LABLAB
99447Bermondsey and Old Southwark Neil Coyle87,22767.114.830.842.15.84.40.80.01.4LABLIB
103444Westminster North Karen Buck63,84667.827.542.718.05.84.10.70.01.2LABLAB
110437Brent North Barry Gardiner82,55668.428.542.614.37.64.60.70.01.7LABLAB
117430Tooting Rosena Allin-Khan77,96074.626.739.820.85.55.00.70.01.4LABLAB
120427Feltham and Heston Seema Malhotra81,70764.928.441.312.311.24.50.80.01.6LABLAB
129418Hampstead and Kilburn Tulip Siddiq82,95770.426.137.623.45.74.90.70.01.6LABLAB
136411Ealing Central and Acton Rupa Huq74,20074.628.139.021.06.33.60.70.01.3LABLAB
144403Harrow West Gareth Thomas69,79872.129.939.815.48.14.50.70.01.6LABLAB
156391Enfield North Joan Ryan68,45470.930.938.814.110.53.60.80.01.4LABLAB
173374Erith and Thamesmead Teresa Pearce69,72463.829.936.213.313.93.71.00.01.9LABLAB
176371Brentford and Isleworth Ruth Cadbury85,15172.430.936.918.18.43.60.70.01.4LABLAB
183364Ilford North Wes Streeting72,99772.533.438.113.39.53.20.70.01.8LABLAB
210337Eltham Clive Efford64,47471.633.033.615.911.23.20.80.02.3LABLAB
219328Enfield Southgate Bambos Charalambous65,13774.234.133.818.07.84.20.70.01.5LABCON
222325Battersea Marsha De Cordova77,57271.031.431.024.56.04.90.70.01.5LABCON
223324Croydon Central Sarah Jones80,04571.333.833.415.011.33.80.80.01.9LABCON
241306Dagenham and Rainham Jon Cruddas70,62064.934.231.210.518.03.11.10.01.9LABCON
246301Kensington Emma Dent Coad60,59463.831.928.225.86.64.80.70.01.9LABCON
253294Hendon Matthew Offord76,32968.436.932.216.28.63.90.70.01.6CONCON
261286Putney Justine Greening65,02672.132.827.226.06.75.10.70.01.5CONCON
267280Finchley and Golders Green Mike Freer73,13871.635.729.221.16.94.70.70.01.7CONCON
271276Chipping Barnet Theresa Villiers77,02072.035.828.720.18.14.90.70.01.6CONCON
278269Cities of London and Westminster Mark Field61,53362.834.226.225.66.84.90.70.01.6CONCON
280267Harrow East Bob Blackman71,75770.939.130.814.69.04.10.70.01.7CONCON
295252Chingford and Woodford Green Iain Duncan Smith66,07871.138.227.917.010.44.20.70.01.5CONCON
308239Wimbledon Stephen Hammond66,77177.234.822.030.16.74.40.70.01.4CONCON
312235Uxbridge and South Ruislip Boris Johnson69,93866.839.225.815.613.13.90.80.01.5CONCON
325222Chelsea and Fulham Greg Hands63,72866.138.022.525.67.54.20.70.01.4CONCON
342204Kingston and Surbiton Ed Davey81,58476.227.810.049.68.32.50.50.01.3LIBLIB
349197Carshalton and Wallington Tom Brake70,84971.630.211.842.411.12.50.60.01.5LIBLIB
356191Croydon South Chris Philp83,51873.341.022.219.810.73.80.80.01.7CONCON
356190Twickenham Vince Cable83,36279.525.76.858.46.21.80.30.01.0LIBLIB
369178Bromley and Chislehurst Bob Neill65,11371.740.720.420.412.23.90.80.01.6CONCON
375172Bexleyheath and Crayford David Evennett65,31569.242.621.713.316.63.00.90.01.9CONCON
397149Richmond Park Zac Goldsmith80,02579.130.57.452.56.22.10.30.01.0CONLIB
407140Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner Nick Hurd73,42572.743.819.519.910.53.90.70.01.7CONCON
410137Sutton and Cheam Paul Scully70,40473.837.112.735.210.52.60.60.01.3CONCON
431116Romford Andrew Rosindell73,51667.945.119.512.417.53.00.90.01.6CONCON
441106Beckenham Bob Stewart67,92876.043.917.821.510.63.80.70.01.6CONCON
47374Old Bexley and Sidcup James Brokenshire66,00572.846.317.814.815.33.00.90.02.0CONCON
48265Hornchurch and Upminster Julia Dockerill80,82169.446.217.312.518.22.91.00.01.9CONCON
50938Orpington Jo Johnson67,90674.346.414.919.314.03.10.80.01.5CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.