North East: Sorted Seats

North East Prediction

Party2024 Votes2024 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 20.2%1 20.2%00+01
LAB 45.4%26 45.4%00+026
LIB 5.9%0 5.9%00+00
Reform 19.9%0 19.9%00+00
Green 6.0%0 6.0%00+00
Other 2.6%0 2.6%00+00

This page shows all the seats in North East sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The seat 'Jarrow and Gateshead East' where the LAB−CON difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Stockton West', where the CON−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.

The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Redcar (prediction: LAB), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Durham North (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of North East seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2024ElectorateTurn
47487Jarrow and Gateshead East Kate Osborne70,27252.
51483Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend Mary Glindon76,42155.48.350.17.019.812.41.01.3LABLAB
83451Easington Grahame Morris69,41149.511.048.92.529.
95439Newcastle upon Tyne North Catherine McKinnell75,14664.713.850.312.
99435Blaydon and Consett Liz Twist70,48759.914.350.15.423.
106428Newcastle upon Tyne Central and West Chi Onwurah76,96953.710.345.64.919.
107427Washington and Gateshead South Sharon Hodgson70,97252.212.647.84.429.
117417Blyth and Ashington Ian Lavery76,26353.
119415Durham, City of Mary Foy70,58257.612.947.114.618.
122412Gateshead Central and Whickham Mark Ferguson69,82357.611.545.412.421.
127407Houghton and Sunderland South Bridget Phillipson78,44851.013.847.05.729.
140394Tynemouth Alan Campbell73,46965.918.750.65.715.
156378Cramlington and Killingworth Emma Foody76,22859.619.
159375South Shields Emma Lewell-Buck68,36653.911.341.13.923.
166368Middlesbrough and Thornaby East Andy McDonald75,12345.818.
173361Sunderland Central Lewis Atkinson76,14552.514.342.
187347Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor Alan Strickland72,22455.220.646.23.824.
202332Stockton North Chris McDonald70,24253.221.545.
203331Hartlepool Jonathan Brash71,43749.721.946.21.724.
204330Durham North Luke Akehurst73,23556.815.639.810.
264270Bishop Auckland Sam Rushworth70,74557.125.642.13.423.
325209Northumberland North David Smith74,13265.926.336.510.815.
341193Redcar Anna Turley70,24154.432.341.
353181Hexham Joe Morris76,43167.839.
365169Darlington Lola McEvoy70,76359.933.839.
407127Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East Luke Myer70,32854.142.843.
43995Stockton West Matt Vickers71,86867.741.937.52.514.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.