| Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 20.2% | 1 | 14.7% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| LAB | 45.4% | 26 | 25.5% | 0 | 19 | -19 | 7 |
| LIB | 5.9% | 0 | 8.1% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
| Reform | 19.9% | 0 | 32.5% | 19 | 0 | +19 | 19 |
| Green | 6.0% | 0 | 14.8% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
| Other | 2.6% | 0 | 4.4% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
This page shows all the seats in North East sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Tynemouth' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Redcar', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.
The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Redcar (prediction: Reform), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Tynemouth (prediction: LAB).
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
| LAB Seats | Reform Seats | Seat | MP at 2024 | Electorate | Turn Out% | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | Reform % | Green % | MIN % | OTH % | 2024 Win | Pred Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 317 | Tynemouth | Alan Campbell | 73,469 | 65.9 | 6.5 | 46.2 | 3.0 | 33.1 | 7.1 | 0.0 | 4.1 | LAB | LAB |
| 36 | 293 | Newcastle upon Tyne North | Catherine McKinnell | 75,146 | 64.7 | 12.7 | 27.9 | 11.7 | 20.8 | 23.7 | 0.0 | 3.3 | LAB | LAB |
| 39 | 290 | Hexham | Joe Morris | 76,431 | 67.8 | 26.7 | 28.3 | 9.4 | 21.6 | 11.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 51 | 278 | Cramlington and Killingworth | Emma Foody | 76,228 | 59.6 | 5.0 | 44.8 | 1.8 | 39.6 | 4.4 | 0.0 | 4.4 | LAB | LAB |
| 60 | 269 | Blaydon and Consett | Liz Twist | 70,487 | 59.9 | 4.0 | 44.7 | 1.9 | 41.7 | 4.3 | 0.0 | 3.5 | LAB | LAB |
| 61 | 268 | Northumberland North | David Smith | 74,132 | 65.9 | 14.2 | 33.2 | 9.2 | 30.2 | 8.2 | 0.0 | 5.1 | LAB | LAB |
| 83 | 246 | Gateshead Central and Whickham | Mark Ferguson | 69,823 | 57.6 | 7.3 | 34.9 | 7.1 | 34.8 | 11.6 | 0.0 | 4.3 | LAB | LAB |
| 95 | 234 | Durham, City of | Mary Foy | 70,582 | 57.6 | 10.4 | 25.3 | 12.3 | 27.2 | 21.5 | 0.0 | 3.3 | LAB | Reform |
| 100 | 229 | Sunderland Central | Lewis Atkinson | 76,145 | 52.5 | 6.4 | 37.3 | 4.3 | 39.5 | 7.7 | 0.0 | 4.8 | LAB | Reform |
| 101 | 228 | Blyth and Ashington | Ian Lavery | 76,263 | 53.0 | 3.8 | 42.4 | 1.8 | 44.6 | 4.2 | 0.0 | 3.3 | LAB | Reform |
| 105 | 224 | Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor | Alan Strickland | 72,224 | 55.2 | 5.6 | 40.8 | 2.0 | 43.3 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 1.6 | LAB | Reform |
| 106 | 223 | Jarrow and Gateshead East | Kate Osborne | 70,272 | 52.3 | 3.1 | 41.8 | 1.8 | 44.6 | 4.3 | 0.0 | 4.4 | LAB | Reform |
| 112 | 217 | Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend | Mary Glindon | 76,421 | 55.4 | 7.9 | 26.2 | 7.3 | 29.3 | 23.7 | 3.3 | 2.3 | LAB | Reform |
| 119 | 210 | Stockton North | Chris McDonald | 70,242 | 53.2 | 8.4 | 37.2 | 2.8 | 41.1 | 6.3 | 0.0 | 4.2 | LAB | Reform |
| 121 | 208 | Durham North | Luke Akehurst | 73,235 | 56.8 | 4.6 | 38.6 | 3.0 | 42.7 | 4.8 | 5.4 | 1.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 130 | 199 | Newcastle upon Tyne Central and West | Chi Onwurah | 76,969 | 53.7 | 9.0 | 25.0 | 7.1 | 30.1 | 21.0 | 0.0 | 7.8 | LAB | Reform |
| 143 | 186 | Houghton and Sunderland South | Bridget Phillipson | 78,448 | 51.0 | 4.0 | 39.5 | 1.9 | 46.3 | 3.7 | 0.0 | 4.6 | LAB | Reform |
| 147 | 182 | Easington | Grahame Morris | 69,411 | 49.5 | 3.1 | 40.0 | 1.6 | 47.1 | 3.8 | 0.0 | 4.5 | LAB | Reform |
| 149 | 180 | Washington and Gateshead South | Sharon Hodgson | 70,972 | 52.2 | 3.6 | 39.5 | 1.7 | 46.8 | 3.7 | 0.0 | 4.7 | LAB | Reform |
| 158 | 171 | Bishop Auckland | Sam Rushworth | 70,745 | 57.1 | 11.7 | 32.7 | 4.7 | 40.7 | 7.1 | 0.0 | 3.1 | LAB | Reform |
| 175 | 153 | Stockton West | Matt Vickers | 71,868 | 67.7 | 33.8 | 19.7 | 6.6 | 29.4 | 7.9 | 0.0 | 2.6 | CON | CON |
| 177 | 152 | Middlesbrough and Thornaby East | Andy McDonald | 75,123 | 45.8 | 11.2 | 25.0 | 4.5 | 35.1 | 14.9 | 8.5 | 0.9 | LAB | Reform |
| 181 | 148 | Hartlepool | Jonathan Brash | 71,437 | 49.7 | 10.9 | 31.2 | 3.6 | 41.6 | 7.2 | 1.8 | 3.7 | LAB | Reform |
| 189 | 140 | Darlington | Lola McEvoy | 70,763 | 59.9 | 24.2 | 21.6 | 6.1 | 32.6 | 12.5 | 0.0 | 3.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 196 | 133 | Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland | Luke Myer | 70,328 | 54.1 | 29.6 | 19.5 | 7.9 | 31.3 | 8.8 | 0.0 | 2.9 | LAB | Reform |
| 214 | 115 | South Shields | Emma Lewell-Buck | 68,366 | 53.9 | 8.2 | 22.6 | 6.6 | 36.5 | 20.6 | 0.0 | 5.6 | LAB | Reform |
| 240 | 89 | Redcar | Anna Turley | 70,241 | 54.4 | 23.3 | 21.2 | 6.2 | 37.2 | 9.1 | 0.0 | 3.1 | LAB | Reform |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.