North East: Majority Sorted Seats

North East Prediction

Party2019 Votes2019 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 38.3%10 28.4%09-91
LAB 42.6%19 51.7%90+928
LIB 6.8%0 7.0%00+00
Reform 8.1%0 4.0%00+00
Green 2.4%0 6.2%00+00
Other 1.9%0 2.7%00+00

This page shows all the seats in North East sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Newcastle upon Tyne East, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Berwick-upon-Tweed, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Berwick-upon-Tweed (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Darlington (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of North East seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
CON
Seats
SeatMP at 2019ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Reform
%
Green
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2019
Win
Pred
Win
33522Newcastle upon Tyne East Nick Brown63,79668.015.064.38.51.59.10.01.5LABLAB
57498Newcastle upon Tyne Central Chi Onwurah57,84564.818.261.37.23.48.30.01.7LABLAB
83472South Shields Emma Lewell-Buck62,79360.319.156.95.76.37.30.04.7LABLAB
91464Middlesbrough Andy McDonald60,76456.121.957.94.95.06.30.03.9LABLAB
94461Gateshead Ian Mearns64,44959.223.258.36.82.17.80.01.8LABLAB
100455Tyneside North Mary Glindon78,90263.923.157.06.64.16.70.02.5LABLAB
102453Jarrow Kate Osborne65,10362.622.755.66.34.76.10.04.5LABLAB
103452Easington Grahame Morris61,18256.523.055.95.86.25.00.03.9LABLAB
118437Durham, City of Mary Foy71,27168.622.552.912.32.97.30.02.1LABLAB
133422Newcastle upon Tyne North Catherine McKinnell68,48668.624.853.98.43.76.90.02.3LABLAB
139416Blaydon Liz Twist67,85367.324.753.28.04.56.50.03.1LABLAB
140415Durham North Kevan Jones66,79663.225.553.86.94.46.30.03.1LABLAB
141414Washington and Sunderland West Sharon Hodgson66,27856.625.553.36.35.26.50.03.2LABLAB
156399Tynemouth Alan Campbell77,26172.528.054.46.52.66.50.02.0LABLAB
161394Sunderland Central Julie Elliott72,68059.826.852.66.94.66.50.02.6LABLAB
163392Houghton and Sunderland South Bridget Phillipson68,83557.826.452.26.35.46.30.03.3LABLAB
169386Hartlepool Mike Hill70,85557.926.151.05.97.85.00.04.2LABLAB
194361Stockton North Alex Cunningham66,64961.830.651.75.34.74.60.03.0LABLAB
195360Wansbeck Ian Lavery63,33964.029.750.86.93.66.50.02.5LABLAB
205350Blyth Valley Ian Levy64,42963.430.950.06.34.06.30.02.4CONLAB
207348Durham North West Richard Holden72,16666.030.849.76.83.85.90.03.1CONLAB
227328Darlington Peter Gibson66,39765.533.849.05.93.16.00.02.2CONLAB
243312Redcar Jacob Young65,86462.033.847.26.84.34.90.03.0CONLAB
246309Stockton South Matt Vickers76,87071.336.048.85.43.34.50.02.0CONLAB
252303Sedgefield Paul Howell64,32564.634.746.95.94.15.70.02.7CONLAB
297258Bishop Auckland Dehenna Davison68,17065.738.945.25.73.84.10.02.3CONLAB
310245Hexham Guy Opperman61,32475.338.542.38.62.26.50.01.9CONLAB
317238Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East Simon Clarke72,34866.140.943.65.22.95.30.02.1CONLAB
354201Berwick-upon-Tweed Anne-Marie Trevelyan59,93970.339.735.714.42.55.80.01.9CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2019. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.