North East: Majority Sorted Seats

North East Prediction

Party2019 Votes2019 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 38.3%10 19.7%09-91
LAB 42.6%19 53.6%90+928
LIB 6.8%0 5.6%00+00
Reform 8.1%0 13.3%00+00
Green 2.4%0 6.0%00+00
Other 1.9%0 1.8%00+00

This page shows all the seats in North East sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Newcastle upon Tyne East, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Berwick-upon-Tweed, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Hexham (prediction: LAB), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Darlington (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of North East seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
CON
Seats
SeatMP at 2019ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Reform
%
Green
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2019
Win
Pred
Win
44536Newcastle upon Tyne East Nick Brown63,79668.010.366.65.38.28.50.01.0LABLAB
54526Newcastle upon Tyne Central Chi Onwurah57,84564.811.265.74.210.96.40.01.6LABLAB
68512Middlesbrough Andy McDonald60,76456.112.563.12.813.35.20.03.1LABLAB
81499Gateshead Ian Mearns64,44959.213.962.44.910.66.90.01.2LABLAB
89491Easington Grahame Morris61,18256.512.959.93.716.44.70.02.3LABLAB
94486Tyneside North Mary Glindon78,90263.914.760.24.612.96.10.01.5LABLAB
107473Jarrow Kate Osborne65,10362.614.558.44.114.56.20.02.3LABLAB
124456South Shields Emma Lewell-Buck62,79360.311.954.33.817.88.80.03.4LABLAB
128452Washington and Sunderland West Sharon Hodgson66,27856.616.558.03.714.06.00.01.8LABLAB
132448Durham North Kevan Jones66,79663.215.356.55.014.96.00.02.2LABLAB
150430Houghton and Sunderland South Bridget Phillipson68,83557.816.855.64.715.15.90.01.9LABLAB
161419Durham, City of Mary Foy71,27168.614.752.312.312.37.40.01.0LABLAB
162418Newcastle upon Tyne North Catherine McKinnell68,48668.617.054.66.613.66.80.01.5LABLAB
163417Blaydon Liz Twist67,85367.316.854.36.015.06.40.01.5LABLAB
167413Sunderland Central Julie Elliott72,68059.818.055.25.713.65.50.01.9LABLAB
172408Tynemouth Alan Campbell77,26172.520.557.34.110.56.40.01.2LABLAB
188392Stockton North Alex Cunningham66,64961.821.255.83.413.24.70.01.7LABLAB
196384Durham North West Richard Holden72,16666.019.952.46.114.85.70.01.1CONLAB
199381Wansbeck Ian Lavery63,33964.020.753.15.613.35.90.01.3LABLAB
201379Blyth Valley Ian Levy64,42963.421.253.54.713.35.90.01.3CONLAB
232348Sedgefield Paul Howell64,32564.621.650.35.715.45.50.01.4CONLAB
246334Darlington Peter Gibson66,39765.524.250.74.212.27.10.01.7CONLAB
255325Redcar Jacob Young65,86462.022.748.46.215.85.20.01.8CONLAB
263317Stockton South Matt Vickers76,87071.326.150.94.512.24.40.01.9CONLAB
273307Bishop Auckland Dehenna Davison68,17065.725.849.35.114.34.20.01.4CONLAB
289291Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East Simon Clarke72,34866.125.947.74.714.15.80.01.8CONLAB
365215Hexham Guy Opperman61,32475.331.240.68.812.06.60.00.8CONLAB
404176Hartlepool Mike Hill70,85557.935.538.92.511.82.94.83.6LABLAB
445135Berwick-upon-Tweed Anne-Marie Trevelyan59,93970.332.531.916.413.15.70.00.5CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2019. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.