| Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 20.2% | 1 | 17.1% | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 |
| LAB | 45.4% | 26 | 33.3% | 0 | 9 | -9 | 17 |
| LIB | 5.9% | 0 | 4.2% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
| Reform | 19.9% | 0 | 28.7% | 8 | 0 | +8 | 8 |
| Green | 6.0% | 0 | 8.1% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
| Other | 2.6% | 0 | 8.5% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
This page shows all the seats in North East sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Newcastle upon Tyne North' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Bishop Auckland', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.
The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor (prediction: Reform), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend (prediction: LAB).
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
| LAB Seats | Reform Seats | Seat | MP at 2024 | Electorate | Turn Out% | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | Reform % | Green % | MIN % | OTH % | 2024 Win | Pred Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | 343 | Newcastle upon Tyne North | Catherine McKinnell | 75,146 | 64.7 | 11.1 | 43.5 | 5.2 | 22.4 | 10.8 | 7.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 59 | 340 | Tynemouth | Alan Campbell | 73,469 | 65.9 | 12.4 | 44.8 | 3.2 | 24.3 | 8.6 | 6.8 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 66 | 333 | Newcastle upon Tyne Central and West | Chi Onwurah | 76,969 | 53.7 | 3.8 | 50.4 | 0.8 | 31.0 | 4.1 | 9.8 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 69 | 330 | Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend | Mary Glindon | 76,421 | 55.4 | 5.4 | 46.6 | 2.0 | 27.5 | 8.5 | 10.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 119 | 280 | Hexham | Joe Morris | 76,431 | 67.8 | 30.1 | 34.9 | 3.9 | 21.7 | 5.2 | 4.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 123 | 276 | Gateshead Central and Whickham | Mark Ferguson | 69,823 | 57.6 | 4.2 | 46.8 | 1.6 | 33.8 | 3.2 | 10.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 142 | 257 | South Shields | Emma Lewell-Buck | 68,366 | 53.9 | 3.9 | 47.1 | 0.7 | 36.3 | 3.3 | 8.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 143 | 256 | Cramlington and Killingworth | Emma Foody | 76,228 | 59.6 | 5.9 | 46.9 | 0.9 | 36.1 | 2.5 | 7.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 147 | 252 | Jarrow and Gateshead East | Kate Osborne | 70,272 | 52.3 | 3.5 | 45.9 | 0.8 | 35.3 | 2.7 | 11.9 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 159 | 240 | Blaydon and Consett | Liz Twist | 70,487 | 59.9 | 5.0 | 46.2 | 1.1 | 36.5 | 2.7 | 8.4 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 163 | 236 | Durham, City of | Mary Foy | 70,582 | 57.6 | 5.4 | 46.5 | 2.0 | 36.9 | 2.6 | 6.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 175 | 224 | Middlesbrough and Thornaby East | Andy McDonald | 75,123 | 45.8 | 5.0 | 44.1 | 0.7 | 35.5 | 3.1 | 11.6 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 179 | 220 | Washington and Gateshead South | Sharon Hodgson | 70,972 | 52.2 | 3.9 | 44.0 | 0.8 | 35.6 | 2.6 | 13.1 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 221 | 178 | Houghton and Sunderland South | Bridget Phillipson | 78,448 | 51.0 | 4.4 | 41.9 | 1.0 | 38.1 | 2.3 | 12.4 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 230 | 169 | Sunderland Central | Lewis Atkinson | 76,145 | 52.5 | 5.2 | 42.1 | 1.3 | 39.0 | 2.6 | 9.8 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 236 | 163 | Darlington | Lola McEvoy | 70,763 | 59.9 | 24.0 | 29.5 | 3.5 | 27.0 | 6.9 | 9.1 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 252 | 146 | Stockton West | Matt Vickers | 71,868 | 67.7 | 34.9 | 26.2 | 3.7 | 24.6 | 5.7 | 4.9 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 255 | 143 | Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland | Luke Myer | 70,328 | 54.1 | 29.0 | 28.7 | 3.4 | 27.7 | 4.5 | 6.8 | 0.0 | LAB | CON |
| 264 | 135 | Stockton North | Chris McDonald | 70,242 | 53.2 | 5.9 | 39.8 | 0.9 | 39.5 | 2.0 | 11.9 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 272 | 127 | Northumberland North | David Smith | 74,132 | 65.9 | 13.9 | 37.1 | 3.7 | 37.7 | 2.3 | 5.4 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 280 | 119 | Durham North | Luke Akehurst | 73,235 | 56.8 | 6.0 | 41.0 | 1.6 | 42.2 | 2.2 | 7.1 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 284 | 115 | Blyth and Ashington | Ian Lavery | 76,263 | 53.0 | 6.1 | 41.1 | 1.1 | 42.8 | 2.2 | 6.7 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 301 | 98 | Hartlepool | Jonathan Brash | 71,437 | 49.7 | 5.7 | 38.4 | 0.7 | 41.6 | 1.5 | 12.1 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 308 | 91 | Easington | Grahame Morris | 69,411 | 49.5 | 5.4 | 40.0 | 1.0 | 44.0 | 2.1 | 7.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 318 | 81 | Redcar | Anna Turley | 70,241 | 54.4 | 23.2 | 26.7 | 3.5 | 31.8 | 4.7 | 10.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 348 | 51 | Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor | Alan Strickland | 72,224 | 55.2 | 6.8 | 38.1 | 1.1 | 45.1 | 1.4 | 7.4 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 362 | 37 | Bishop Auckland | Sam Rushworth | 70,745 | 57.1 | 17.6 | 29.8 | 3.5 | 38.4 | 3.8 | 7.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.