North East: Majority Sorted Seats

North East Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 34.4%3 20.0%01-12
LAB 55.4%26 39.6%10+127
LIB 4.6%0 5.2%00+00
UKIP 3.9%0 6.1%00+00
Green 1.3%0 4.6%00+00
ChUK 0.0%0 4.1%00+00
Brexit 0.0%0 18.6%00+00
Minor 0.5%0 1.8%00+00

This page shows all the seats in North East sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Newcastle upon Tyne East, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Berwick-upon-Tweed, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Hexham (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Sedgefield (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of North East seats with predictions

Lab
Seats
Con
Seats
SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
UKIP
%
Green
%
NAT
%
ChUK
%
Brexit
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2017
Win
Pred
Win
54496Newcastle upon Tyne East Nicholas Brown62,33366.812.948.56.45.25.80.04.215.60.01.4LABLAB
56494Newcastle upon Tyne Central Chi Onwurah55,57166.813.949.25.15.35.40.03.915.90.01.1LABLAB
78472Middlesbrough Andy McDonald61,11458.315.347.03.46.14.70.03.818.30.01.5LABLAB
84466Gateshead Ian Mearns65,18664.614.044.94.86.45.10.03.819.30.01.8LABLAB
96454Easington Grahame Morris62,38558.315.344.43.86.44.80.03.919.50.01.9LABLAB
99451Jarrow Stephen Hepburn64,82866.415.244.14.16.64.70.03.719.80.01.8LABLAB
103447Tyneside North Mary Glindon78,91465.816.344.64.46.04.60.03.918.30.01.8LABLAB
124426South Shields Emma Lewell-Buck63,44964.314.740.93.57.65.30.03.622.70.01.8LABLAB
134416Washington and Sunderland West Sharon Hodgson67,28060.316.540.83.97.04.80.03.721.20.01.9LABLAB
141409Durham North Kevan Jones66,97064.618.141.65.26.04.80.04.118.40.01.8LABLAB
150400Houghton and Sunderland South Bridget Phillipson68,12360.917.239.73.97.14.90.03.721.50.01.9LABLAB
152398Blaydon Liz Twist68,45970.217.339.67.06.24.90.04.418.80.01.7LABLAB
153397Durham, City of Roberta Blackman-Woods71,13267.918.440.68.25.15.60.04.815.70.01.5LABLAB
156394Wansbeck Ian Lavery62,09968.419.340.65.36.04.60.04.118.20.01.8LABLAB
159391Newcastle upon Tyne North Catherine McKinnell66,31272.819.840.55.55.84.80.04.117.70.01.6LABLAB
162388Sunderland Central Julie Elliott72,72862.018.939.14.96.55.20.04.019.60.01.7LABLAB
163387Tynemouth Alan Campbell77,43473.422.042.24.95.04.60.04.215.40.01.6LABLAB
172378Redcar Anna Turley66,83663.719.138.45.66.64.10.04.120.10.02.0LABLAB
176374Stockton North Alex Cunningham66,27964.520.239.13.56.84.10.03.620.70.02.0LABLAB
178372Blyth Valley Ronnie Campbell63,37167.021.740.45.25.63.90.04.117.30.01.9LABLAB
191359Durham North West Laura Pidcock71,98266.520.837.66.36.14.70.04.318.50.01.8LABLAB
197353Hartlepool Mike Hill70,71859.218.034.43.48.35.10.03.625.00.02.2LABLAB
204346Sedgefield Phil Wilson63,89065.122.237.54.06.44.60.03.919.50.01.9LABLAB
229321Darlington Jenny Chapman66,34167.624.437.14.35.94.30.04.018.10.01.9LABLAB
251299Stockton South Paul Williams75,61971.227.436.64.05.54.00.04.016.80.01.7LABLAB
257293Bishop Auckland Helen Goodman67,66164.026.634.94.36.03.80.03.918.40.02.0LABLAB
269281Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East Simon Clarke72,33665.828.135.44.35.73.20.04.017.40.02.0CONLAB
355195Hexham Guy Opperman61,01275.831.827.76.95.64.60.04.517.10.01.8CONCON
397153Berwick-upon-Tweed Anne-Marie Trevelyan58,77471.830.322.013.05.93.70.05.318.10.01.9CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.