North East: Sorted Seats

North East Prediction

Party2024 Votes2024 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 20.2%1 20.2%00+01
LAB 45.4%26 45.4%00+026
LIB 5.9%0 5.9%00+00
Reform 19.9%0 19.9%00+00
Green 6.0%0 6.0%00+00
Other 2.6%0 2.6%00+00

This page shows all the seats in North East sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The seat 'Jarrow and Gateshead East' where the LAB−CON difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Stockton West', where the CON−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.

The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Redcar (prediction: LAB), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Durham North (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of North East seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
CON
Seats
SeatMP at 2024ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Reform
%
Green
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2024
Win
Pred
Win
47487Jarrow and Gateshead East Kate Osborne70,27252.39.251.34.826.96.50.01.3LABLAB
51483Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend Mary Glindon76,42155.48.350.17.019.812.41.01.3LABLAB
83451Easington Grahame Morris69,41149.511.048.92.529.83.40.04.4LABLAB
95439Newcastle upon Tyne North Catherine McKinnell75,14664.713.850.312.212.210.40.01.2LABLAB
99435Blaydon and Consett Liz Twist70,48759.914.350.15.423.76.10.00.3LABLAB
106428Newcastle upon Tyne Central and West Chi Onwurah76,96953.710.345.64.919.07.80.012.3LABLAB
107427Washington and Gateshead South Sharon Hodgson70,97252.212.647.84.429.14.60.01.6LABLAB
117417Blyth and Ashington Ian Lavery76,26353.015.249.63.626.94.90.00.0LABLAB
119415Durham, City of Mary Foy70,58257.612.947.114.618.26.90.00.4LABLAB
122412Gateshead Central and Whickham Mark Ferguson69,82357.611.545.412.421.48.00.01.3LABLAB
127407Houghton and Sunderland South Bridget Phillipson78,44851.013.847.05.729.14.30.00.0LABLAB
140394Tynemouth Alan Campbell73,46965.918.750.65.715.37.40.02.4LABLAB
156378Cramlington and Killingworth Emma Foody76,22859.619.049.14.220.84.70.02.2LABLAB
159375South Shields Emma Lewell-Buck68,36653.911.341.13.923.014.80.05.9LABLAB
166368Middlesbrough and Thornaby East Andy McDonald75,12345.818.047.23.020.54.45.81.1LABLAB
173361Sunderland Central Lewis Atkinson76,14552.514.342.29.027.07.50.00.0LABLAB
187347Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor Alan Strickland72,22455.220.646.23.824.04.30.60.6LABLAB
202332Stockton North Chris McDonald70,24253.221.545.83.024.65.10.00.0LABLAB
203331Hartlepool Jonathan Brash71,43749.721.946.21.724.62.30.72.6LABLAB
204330Durham North Luke Akehurst73,23556.815.639.810.125.75.72.20.7LABLAB
264270Bishop Auckland Sam Rushworth70,74557.125.642.13.423.44.60.00.8LABLAB
325209Northumberland North David Smith74,13265.926.336.510.815.83.60.07.1LABLAB
341193Redcar Anna Turley70,24154.432.341.04.118.93.30.00.4LABLAB
353181Hexham Joe Morris76,43167.839.246.34.70.04.80.05.0LABLAB
365169Darlington Lola McEvoy70,76359.933.839.24.116.26.70.00.0LABLAB
407127Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East Luke Myer70,32854.142.843.35.50.03.80.04.6LABLAB
43995Stockton West Matt Vickers71,86867.741.937.52.514.13.00.01.0CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.