North East: Majority Sorted Seats

North East Prediction

Party2019 Votes2019 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 38.3%10 36.4%02-28
LAB 42.6%19 47.4%20+221
LIB 6.8%0 4.4%00+00
Brexit 8.1%0 4.9%00+00
Green 2.4%0 3.4%00+00
Other 1.9%0 3.4%00+00

This page shows all the seats in North East sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Newcastle upon Tyne East, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Berwick-upon-Tweed, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Durham North West (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of North East seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
CON
Seats
SeatMP at 2019ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Brexit
%
Green
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2019
Win
Pred
Win
62502Newcastle upon Tyne East Nick Brown63,79668.022.663.76.70.05.90.01.1LABLAB
70494Newcastle upon Tyne Central Chi Onwurah57,84564.823.062.24.74.04.70.01.5LABLAB
79485South Shields Emma Lewell-Buck62,79360.318.552.22.610.24.99.72.1LABLAB
99465Middlesbrough Andy McDonald60,76456.124.053.91.53.82.413.31.1LABLAB
103461Easington Grahame Morris61,18256.524.652.82.811.61.60.06.5LABLAB
110454Tyneside North Mary Glindon78,90263.928.955.14.16.24.00.01.7LABLAB
115449Jarrow Kate Osborne65,10362.625.850.33.76.03.27.33.7LABLAB
118446Gateshead Ian Mearns64,44959.232.956.54.70.05.00.00.9LABLAB
131433Blaydon Liz Twist67,85367.329.449.75.27.64.20.03.8LABLAB
136428Newcastle upon Tyne North Catherine McKinnell68,48668.631.351.26.05.54.20.01.8LABLAB
140424Durham, City of Mary Foy71,27168.629.948.710.54.04.80.02.1LABLAB
141423Durham North Kevan Jones66,79663.231.149.94.46.63.90.04.1LABLAB
148416Washington and Sunderland West Sharon Hodgson66,27856.630.848.83.68.74.10.04.2LABLAB
149415Hartlepool Mike Hill70,85557.927.145.12.717.81.60.05.8LABLAB
163401Houghton and Sunderland South Bridget Phillipson68,83557.831.147.33.89.24.30.04.3LABLAB
171393Sunderland Central Julie Elliott72,68059.833.548.04.56.94.10.03.0LABLAB
172392Tynemouth Alan Campbell77,26172.537.651.74.42.13.10.01.2LABLAB
194370Stockton North Alex Cunningham66,64961.838.847.72.65.71.00.04.3LABLAB
195369Wansbeck Ian Lavery63,33964.038.446.94.04.64.00.01.9LABLAB
206358Blyth Valley Ian Levy64,42963.440.945.53.45.03.80.01.4CONLAB
212352Durham North West Richard Holden72,16666.040.143.93.84.03.40.04.8CONLAB
246318Darlington Peter Gibson66,39765.546.243.73.12.13.10.01.7CONCON
247317Redcar Jacob Young65,86462.044.241.63.24.32.10.04.6CONCON
251313Sedgefield Paul Howell64,32564.645.440.83.05.13.40.02.4CONCON
252312Stockton South Matt Vickers76,87071.348.844.32.72.40.70.01.0CONCON
296268Bishop Auckland Dehenna Davison68,17065.751.939.73.13.30.80.01.2CONCON
317247Hexham Guy Opperman61,32475.352.735.26.50.04.50.01.1CONCON
331233Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East Simon Clarke72,34866.157.036.72.60.03.00.00.7CONCON
384180Berwick-upon-Tweed Anne-Marie Trevelyan59,93970.355.027.011.70.04.50.01.7CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2019. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.