North East: Sorted Seats

North East Prediction

Party2024 Votes2024 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 20.2%1 17.5%20+23
LAB 45.4%26 29.2%019-197
LIB 5.9%0 10.4%00+00
Reform 19.9%0 32.3%170+1717
Green 6.0%0 8.5%00+00
Other 2.6%0 2.1%00+00

This page shows all the seats in North East sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The seat 'Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend' where the LAB−CON difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Stockton West', where the CON−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.

The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Stockton West (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of North East seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
CON
Seats
SeatMP at 2024ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Reform
%
Green
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2024
Win
Pred
Win
47225Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend Mary Glindon76,42155.49.132.811.128.815.31.81.1LABLAB
63208Jarrow and Gateshead East Kate Osborne70,27252.310.032.49.736.39.80.01.7LABReform
68204Newcastle upon Tyne North Catherine McKinnell75,14664.713.735.515.620.812.80.01.6LABLAB
73198Easington Grahame Morris69,41149.510.430.98.840.37.10.02.5LABReform
78194Blaydon and Consett Liz Twist70,48759.913.733.610.033.48.10.01.3LABLAB
84188Durham, City of Mary Foy70,58257.612.632.016.028.99.20.01.2LABLAB
85187Newcastle upon Tyne Central and West Chi Onwurah76,96953.710.930.311.928.812.00.06.0LABLAB
91181Tynemouth Alan Campbell73,46965.917.035.711.224.19.90.02.1LABLAB
95176Gateshead Central and Whickham Mark Ferguson69,82357.612.630.414.530.610.20.01.7LABReform
99172Washington and Gateshead South Sharon Hodgson70,97252.213.430.09.438.46.90.01.8LABReform
99172Blyth and Ashington Ian Lavery76,26353.014.831.28.737.17.00.01.2LABReform
100172Cramlington and Killingworth Emma Foody76,22859.616.733.29.631.37.30.01.9LABLAB
102169South Shields Emma Lewell-Buck68,36653.911.427.410.132.315.40.03.3LABReform
105166Houghton and Sunderland South Bridget Phillipson78,44851.014.229.59.738.76.70.01.3LABReform
113158Sunderland Central Lewis Atkinson76,14552.515.027.811.735.19.20.01.3LABReform
114157Durham North Luke Akehurst73,23556.814.527.112.135.67.23.10.5LABReform
123148Middlesbrough and Thornaby East Andy McDonald75,12345.817.128.17.733.77.15.80.5LABReform
123148Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor Alan Strickland72,22455.216.227.08.340.16.61.10.6LABReform
128143Stockton North Chris McDonald70,24253.218.628.68.136.37.10.01.2LABReform
131140Hartlepool Jonathan Brash71,43749.718.528.27.837.45.31.01.9LABReform
155116Bishop Auckland Sam Rushworth70,74557.118.324.88.241.36.40.00.9LABReform
17299Northumberland North David Smith74,13265.922.023.613.831.66.50.02.4LABReform
17794Redcar Anna Turley70,24154.423.723.68.237.65.80.01.0LABReform
17993Hexham Joe Morris76,43167.830.229.710.719.87.80.01.8LABCON
18289Darlington Lola McEvoy70,76359.925.824.28.431.78.90.00.9LABReform
20468Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland Luke Myer70,32854.132.724.59.824.56.70.01.7LABCON
21260Stockton West Matt Vickers71,86867.734.024.17.327.76.10.00.8CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.