Yorks/Humber: Sorted Seats

Yorks/Humber Prediction

Party2024 Votes2024 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 22.8%9 22.8%00+09
LAB 40.9%43 40.8%00+043
LIB 7.1%1 7.2%00+01
Reform 16.7%0 16.7%00+00
Green 7.5%0 7.5%00+00
Other 5.0%1 4.9%00+01

This page shows all the seats in Yorks/Humber sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The seat 'Rotherham' where the LAB−CON difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Richmond and Northallerton', where the CON−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.

The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Scunthorpe (prediction: LAB), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Leeds North West (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Yorks/Humber seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
CON
Seats
SeatMP at 2024ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Reform
%
Green
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2024
Win
Pred
Win
30504Rotherham Sarah Champion75,92948.60.145.17.830.37.14.65.0LABLAB
35499Sheffield Central Abtisam Mohamed60,77752.37.452.17.00.026.02.15.4LABLAB
37497York Central Rachael Maskell79,55754.512.456.67.110.912.00.01.0LABLAB
41493Leeds Central and Headingley Alex Sobel70,55444.87.150.28.37.623.52.21.1LABLAB
50484Barnsley North Dan Jarvis78,26747.18.450.43.729.34.90.03.3LABLAB
55479Sheffield Heeley Louise Haigh73,35952.413.755.210.10.015.41.54.0LABLAB
63471Leeds South Hilary Benn75,95341.713.354.04.40.118.42.37.5LABLAB
76458Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough Gill Furniss70,45344.913.051.65.50.114.98.07.0LABLAB
86448Barnsley South Stephanie Peacock75,85046.39.346.73.433.24.30.03.0LABLAB
100434Rawmarsh and Conisbrough John Healey69,13249.013.349.03.428.65.00.80.0LABLAB
103431Leeds North East Fabian Hamilton70,17864.415.951.54.97.613.14.62.5LABLAB
105429Kingston upon Hull North and Cottingham Diana Johnson75,28050.812.948.38.620.46.10.03.7LABLAB
112422Sheffield South East Clive Betts74,19448.217.652.39.70.18.84.17.4LABLAB
114420Hull East Karl Turner70,65042.29.143.810.930.65.60.00.0LABLAB
120414Sheffield Hallam Olivia Blake73,03370.712.146.330.50.08.70.52.0LABLAB
123411Normanton and Hemsworth Jon Trickett75,64548.113.747.53.629.25.90.00.0LABLAB
135399Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley Yvette Cooper74,61848.215.047.53.429.14.60.00.4LABLAB
138396Leeds West and Pudsey Rachel Reeves70,06954.917.149.34.616.39.91.61.2LABLAB
160374Leeds East Richard Burgon76,20751.717.647.23.818.78.90.03.9LABLAB
163371Doncaster North Ed Miliband69,75944.423.052.33.60.15.70.015.2LABLAB
170364Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice Emma Hardy73,25252.118.146.86.923.34.60.00.3LABLAB
171363Bradford East Imran Hussain75,16749.59.337.95.313.46.921.36.0LABLAB
185349Wakefield and Rothwell Simon Lightwood75,06754.218.043.78.020.75.91.71.9LABLAB
194340Doncaster Central Sally Jameson74,67850.821.046.23.220.85.02.01.9LABLAB
206328Leeds North West Katie White71,59269.522.146.011.411.96.50.02.1LABLAB
214320Bradford West Naz Shah77,89747.68.431.62.38.010.029.710.1LABLAB
232302Huddersfield Harpreet Uppal77,79551.616.337.64.315.426.30.00.0LABLAB
234300Bradford South Judith Cummins71,00246.514.835.83.122.610.21.611.9LABLAB
235299Leeds South West and Morley Mark Sewards71,85456.023.044.04.520.46.30.01.8LABLAB
238296Selby Keir Mather78,05563.125.646.33.619.45.00.00.0LABLAB
243291Penistone and Stocksbridge Marie Tidball70,77062.123.743.66.521.54.60.00.0LABLAB
246288Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes Melanie Onn78,87546.422.641.92.928.83.00.00.9LABLAB
251283York Outer Luke Charters76,22867.027.045.310.811.64.30.01.0LABLAB
253281Calder Valley Josh Fenton-Glynn77,36464.126.344.45.215.47.50.01.1LABLAB
257277Shipley Anna Dixon74,13065.227.245.02.815.07.50.61.9LABLAB
273261Halifax Kate Alexandra Dearden77,51651.919.635.15.919.410.36.33.3LABLAB
280254Spen Valley Kim Leadbeater72,64256.524.139.13.624.15.60.03.6LABLAB
301233Scarborough and Whitby Alison Hume74,55859.328.040.24.321.93.90.01.8LABLAB
304229Dewsbury and Batley Iqbal Hussain Mohamed71,68553.111.022.93.516.25.441.10.0MINMIN
318216Colne Valley Paul Davies72,63863.630.341.04.415.87.50.01.0LABLAB
324210Ossett and Denby Dale Jade Botterill72,31260.728.939.34.121.04.90.01.8LABLAB
338196Scunthorpe Nicholas Dakin74,26352.630.639.62.520.93.10.03.2LABLAB
361173Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme Lee Pitcher70,15455.832.738.63.021.73.60.00.4LABLAB
387147Rother Valley Jake Richards69,46059.936.138.52.818.54.10.00.0LABLAB
417117Beverley and Holderness Graham Stuart70,55963.634.534.27.618.33.70.01.7CONCON
429105Skipton and Ripon Julian Smith79,25167.435.332.17.916.06.40.02.3CONCON
434100Keighley and Ilkley Robbie Moore74,36762.140.336.72.210.45.30.05.0CONCON
46074Goole and Pocklington David Davis78,28763.538.231.06.818.24.90.00.9CONCON
46173Bridlington and the Wolds Charlie Dewhirst72,93158.934.627.37.324.13.70.03.0CONCON
46668Brigg and Immingham Martin Vickers74,29757.237.429.83.424.94.50.00.0CONCON
46965Wetherby and Easingwold Alec Shelbrooke74,33470.339.430.16.414.08.70.01.4CONCON
50034Thirsk and Malton Kevin Hollinrake78,48463.439.324.110.818.06.00.01.8CONCON
52211Harrogate and Knaresborough Tom Gordon77,97066.830.28.046.110.93.40.01.4LIBLIB
5286Richmond and Northallerton Rishi Sunak73,88865.747.522.49.014.74.20.21.9CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.