Yorks/Humber: Majority Sorted Seats

Yorks/Humber Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 40.4%17 23.4%05-512
LAB 49.0%37 37.5%51+441
LIB 5.0%0 5.6%10+11
UKIP 2.6%0 5.7%00+00
Green 1.3%0 4.5%00+00
ChUK 0.0%0 4.1%00+00
Brexit 0.0%0 17.5%00+00
Minor 1.7%0 1.7%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Yorks/Humber sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Bradford West, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Richmond, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to York Outer (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Wakefield (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Yorks/Humber seats with predictions

Lab
Seats
Con
Seats
SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
UKIP
%
Green
%
NAT
%
ChUK
%
Brexit
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2017
Win
Pred
Win
7543Bradford West Naz Shah67,56867.410.865.72.92.95.30.03.48.60.00.3LABLAB
26524Bradford East Imran Hussain70,38964.812.758.93.33.95.30.03.711.70.00.5LABLAB
32518Sheffield Central Paul Blomfield77,56061.78.751.26.05.08.80.04.314.90.01.1LABLAB
49501Leeds Central Hilary Benn89,53753.211.549.24.45.86.20.04.017.40.01.4LABLAB
52498Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough Gill Furniss70,34459.512.448.53.66.45.20.03.619.00.01.3LABLAB
75475Leeds North East Fabian Hamilton70,11275.618.651.05.53.55.20.04.311.00.01.0LABLAB
82468York Central Rachael Maskell77,31568.718.549.86.53.64.50.04.611.20.01.4LABLAB
91459Leeds West Rachel Reeves67,95562.114.844.74.26.35.50.03.919.00.01.8LABLAB
95455Hull North Diana Johnson64,66657.514.243.75.36.45.20.04.119.20.01.9LABLAB
106444Leeds East Richard Burgon65,95062.816.744.83.66.34.70.03.618.90.01.4LABLAB
108442Huddersfield Barry Sheerman67,03365.418.646.74.45.05.10.04.115.10.01.2LABLAB
120430Barnsley Central Dan Jarvis64,20460.914.340.73.47.65.20.03.722.90.02.1LABLAB
123427Sheffield Heeley Louise Haigh68,04065.016.442.75.16.25.00.04.018.80.01.8LABLAB
126424Wentworth and Dearne John Healey74,89058.718.844.84.75.43.60.04.116.60.02.0LABLAB
128422Rotherham Sarah Champion63,23760.015.240.74.47.44.90.03.722.10.01.7LABLAB
131419Sheffield South East Clive Betts68,94563.217.942.54.16.34.80.03.819.10.01.5LABLAB
137413Doncaster North Ed Miliband72,37258.516.040.03.67.44.80.03.822.30.02.2LABLAB
143407Barnsley East Stephanie Peacock69,20458.915.839.23.57.74.70.03.623.30.02.2LABLAB
146404Batley and Spen Tracy Brabin80,15367.122.845.73.94.63.80.03.914.20.01.1LABLAB
147403Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford Yvette Cooper81,64160.317.540.43.57.14.30.03.621.40.02.2LABLAB
148402Leeds North West Alex Sobel68,15267.913.936.721.13.65.40.06.711.40.01.1LABLAB
151399Hull East Karl Turner65,95955.515.938.24.17.74.70.03.723.30.02.3LABLAB
154396Hull West and Hessle Emma Hardy60,18157.417.039.25.76.84.60.04.020.60.02.0LABLAB
155395Doncaster Central Rosie Winterton71,71660.019.942.14.05.94.00.03.918.10.01.9LABLAB
165385Bradford South Judith Cummins67,75260.620.841.03.36.24.70.03.718.70.01.5LABLAB
170380Hemsworth Jon Trickett71,87063.919.639.23.76.84.40.03.720.60.02.0LABLAB
183367Halifax Holly Lynch71,22467.823.441.53.95.44.30.03.916.40.01.3LABLAB
198352Dewsbury Paula Sherriff81,33869.525.942.23.94.74.00.04.014.30.01.0LABLAB
210339Sheffield Hallam Jared O Mara73,45577.615.329.829.93.44.80.05.310.60.01.0LABLIB
212338Don Valley Caroline Flint73,98862.224.739.13.95.63.40.03.917.30.02.1LABLAB
217333Scunthorpe Nic Dakin61,57865.324.037.63.56.33.80.03.719.20.02.0LABLAB
224326Wakefield Mary Creagh70,34065.825.538.54.05.73.40.03.817.40.01.8LABLAB
227323Great Grimsby Melanie Onn61,74357.521.634.34.07.34.40.03.822.30.02.3LABLAB
239311Keighley John Grogan71,42972.426.537.44.15.44.90.04.116.30.01.3LABLAB
240310Rother Valley Kevin Barron75,23065.822.333.13.77.54.90.03.822.60.02.1LABLAB
241309Colne Valley Thelma Walker84,38171.627.238.05.34.84.20.04.414.70.01.5LABLAB
254296Pudsey Stuart Andrew72,62274.329.237.85.34.43.70.04.313.70.01.6CONLAB
259291Penistone and Stocksbridge Angela Smith71,29369.824.632.84.66.84.60.03.920.70.02.0LABLAB
265285Calder Valley Craig Whittaker79,04573.427.335.15.05.54.40.04.216.80.01.8CONLAB
282268Morley and Outwood Andrea Jenkyns76,49568.429.635.64.55.13.30.04.015.90.01.9CONLAB
300250Scarborough and Whitby Robert Goodwill73,59368.626.730.84.26.94.60.03.920.80.02.1CONLAB
302248Shipley Philip Davies73,13373.031.535.25.74.43.50.04.413.70.01.6CONLAB
331219York Outer Julian Sturdy75,85675.731.830.28.74.64.10.04.814.20.01.5CONCON
336214Elmet and Rothwell Alec Shelbrooke80,29174.233.030.75.45.23.60.04.216.00.01.8CONCON
354196Cleethorpes Martin Vickers73,04765.530.826.83.87.14.10.03.821.40.02.2CONCON
384166Selby and Ainsty Nigel Adams75,76574.034.027.14.96.03.60.04.018.40.02.0CONCON
386164Beverley and Holderness Graham Stuart80,65769.034.227.25.55.73.40.04.217.60.02.0CONCON
389161Brigg and Goole Andrew Percy66,06968.233.125.43.67.03.80.03.721.30.02.2CONCON
393157Yorkshire East Greg Knight81,06566.632.224.24.67.04.20.04.021.40.02.3CONCON
427123Haltemprice and Howden David Davis71,52071.936.826.25.65.33.50.04.316.50.01.9CONCON
445105Thirsk and Malton Kevin Hollinrake78,67071.133.922.16.26.74.40.04.220.40.02.1CONCON
46387Skipton and Ripon Julian Smith78,10874.436.123.63.16.64.70.03.920.00.02.1CONCON
48070Harrogate and Knaresborough Andrew Jones77,26573.433.619.815.25.03.60.05.715.40.01.7CONCON
50644Richmond Rishi Sunak80,92070.537.421.46.06.23.70.04.219.00.02.1CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.