Yorks/Humber: Majority Sorted Seats

Yorks/Humber Prediction

Party2019 Votes2019 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 43.1%26 22.8%020-206
LAB 38.9%28 49.5%200+2048
LIB 8.1%0 6.4%00+00
Reform 5.9%0 13.2%00+00
Green 2.3%0 6.2%00+00
Other 1.8%0 1.9%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Yorks/Humber sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Bradford West, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Harrogate and Knaresborough, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Batley and Spen (prediction: LAB), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Colne Valley (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Yorks/Humber seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2019ElectorateTurn
7573Bradford West Naz Shah70,69462.67.779.
22558Leeds Central Hilary Benn90,97154.27.771.
48532Bradford East Imran Hussain73,20660.411.
59521Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough Gill Furniss69,33357.110.563.62.713.
60520Leeds West Rachel Reeves67,72759.512.
62518Sheffield Central Paul Blomfield89,84956.
63517Leeds North East Fabian Hamilton70,58071.613.965.
64516York Central Rachael Maskell74,89966.113.464.
85495Hull North Diana Johnson65,51552.
98482Leeds East Richard Burgon67,28658.015.760.62.712.
119461Huddersfield Barry Sheerman65,52563.916.259.03.311.
121459Barnsley Central Dan Jarvis65,27756.513.456.13.318.
123457Sheffield Heeley Louise Haigh66,94063.813.456.05.314.
136444Rotherham Sarah Champion61,68857.815.756.43.417.
143437Sheffield South East Clive Betts67,83261.917.157.23.914.
144436Barnsley East Stephanie Peacock69,50454.814.954.43.319.
147433Bradford South Judith Cummins69,04657.617.956.92.513.
151429Hull East Karl Turner65,74549.314.953.65.617.
157423Hull West and Hessle Emma Hardy60,19252.115.553.
158422Wentworth and Dearne John Healey74,53655.817.755.83.416.
164416Leeds North West Alex Sobel67,74172.816.253.611.410.
171409Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford Yvette Cooper84,52757.117.954.83.816.
173407Doncaster North Ed Miliband72,36256.217.454.23.617.
176404Hemsworth Jon Trickett73,72659.618.254.73.516.
183397Doncaster Central Rosie Winterton71,38958.
184396Halifax Holly Lynch71,88764.620.856.
230350Dewsbury Mark Eastwood81,25369.425.154.13.411.
241339Pudsey Stuart Andrew73,21274.125.652.64.310.
243337Don Valley Nick Fletcher75,35660.323.550.33.915.
248332Keighley Robbie Moore72,77872.325.752.03.911.
250330Colne Valley Jason McCartney84,17472.325.050.94.712.
262318Calder Valley Craig Whittaker79,28772.926.851.54.611.
267313Scunthorpe Holly Mumby-Croft61,95560.926.951.
271309Morley and Outwood Andrea Jenkyns78,80365.924.848.73.613.
277303Sheffield Hallam Olivia Blake72,76378.214.437.429.510.
286294Great Grimsby Lia Nici61,40953.926.
292288Rother Valley Alexander Stafford74,80465.
295285Wakefield Imran Ahmad-Khan70,19264.127.749.
304276Penistone and Stocksbridge Miriam Cates70,92569.824.
306274Shipley Philip Davies74,02972.928.147.94.311.
324256Scarborough and Whitby Robert Goodwill74,40466.829.946.54.613.
326254Batley and Spen Tracy Brabin79,55866.527.944.
333247York Outer Julian Sturdy74,67374.125.139.816.
364216Elmet and Rothwell Alec Shelbrooke80,95771.932.241.85.412.
379201Selby and Ainsty Nigel Adams78,39872.034.641.33.910.
387193Beverley and Holderness Graham Stuart79,69667.232.337.19.714.
412168Yorkshire East Greg Knight80,92365.
420160Haltemprice and Howden David Davis71,08370.
443137Cleethorpes Martin Vickers73,68962.938.
448132Brigg and Goole Andrew Percy65,93965.837.937.
450130Skipton and Ripon Julian Smith78,67374.632.431.311.815.
468112Thirsk and Malton Kevin Hollinrake80,99169.935.031.810.515.
49882Richmond Rishi Sunak82,56969.937.231.410.413.
51763Harrogate and Knaresborough Andrew Jones77,94173.131.823.826.312.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2019. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.