Yorks/Humber: Majority Sorted Seats

Yorks/Humber Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 40.4%17 30.6%30+320
LAB 49.0%37 33.7%05-532
LIB 5.0%0 14.0%20+22
Brexit 0.0%0 16.3%00+00
Green 1.3%0 3.4%00+00
UKIP 2.6%0 0.9%00+00
Other 1.7%0 1.2%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Yorks/Humber sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Bradford West, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Richmond, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Beverley and Holderness (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Rother Valley (prediction: CON).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Yorks/Humber seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
4543Bradford West Naz Shah67,56867.417.363.
20527Bradford East Imran Hussain70,38964.819.255.29.611.
34513Sheffield Central Paul Blomfield77,56061.714.344.416.97.714.
37510Leeds Central Hilary Benn89,53753.218.747.311.914.
41506Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough Gill Furniss70,34459.520.147.39.617.
68479Leeds West Rachel Reeves67,95562.122.141.511.715.
69478Hull North Diana Johnson64,66657.521.240.614.316.
70477York Central Rachael Maskell77,31568.723.042.416.710.
71476Leeds North East Fabian Hamilton70,11275.625.344.514.
81466Leeds East Richard Burgon65,95062.824.942.99.717.
89458Barnsley Central Dan Jarvis64,20460.922.940.19.821.
92455Huddersfield Barry Sheerman67,03365.425.542.411.712.
102445Rotherham Sarah Champion63,23760.024.239.910.321.
104443Sheffield Heeley Louise Haigh68,04065.023.839.
111436Wentworth and Dearne John Healey74,89058.726.040.010.918.
112435Sheffield South East Clive Betts68,94563.
113434Doncaster North Ed Miliband72,37258.524.738.69.621.
115432Barnsley East Stephanie Peacock69,20458.924.738.29.422.
121426Hull East Karl Turner65,95955.524.437.010.622.
124423Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford Yvette Cooper81,64160.326.038.49.421.
126421Hull West and Hessle Emma Hardy60,18157.425.137.012.919.
128419Batley and Spen Tracy Brabin80,15367.129.841.39.614.
133414Doncaster Central Rosie Winterton71,71660.027.638.610.
145402Bradford South Judith Cummins67,75260.629.038.68.818.
148398Leeds North West Alex Sobel68,15267.917.826.640.
151396Hemsworth Jon Trickett71,87063.928.336.810.
163384Halifax Holly Lynch71,22467.830.838.110.316.
181366Dewsbury Paula Sherriff81,33869.532.838.010.713.
194353Scunthorpe Nic Dakin61,57865.331.834.69.319.
195352Great Grimsby Melanie Onn61,74357.529.932.610.
198349Don Valley Caroline Flint73,98862.232.034.610.
198348Sheffield Hallam Jared O Mara73,45577.619.822.344.
206341Wakefield Mary Creagh70,34065.833.134.310.617.
211336Keighley John Grogan71,42972.433.934.311.614.
215332Colne Valley Thelma Walker84,38171.633.133.014.713.
217330Rother Valley Kevin Barron75,23065.831.631.410.821.
236311Pudsey Stuart Andrew72,62274.334.932.214.913.
244303Calder Valley Craig Whittaker79,04573.433.930.714.615.
245302Penistone and Stocksbridge Angela Smith71,29369.833.329.712.919.
258289Morley and Outwood Andrea Jenkyns76,49568.435.830.912.
273274Shipley Philip Davies73,13373.036.929.615.
274273Scarborough and Whitby Robert Goodwill73,59368.635.428.
303244York Outer Julian Sturdy75,85675.736.124.421.712.
315232Elmet and Rothwell Alec Shelbrooke80,29174.239.625.915.
321226Cleethorpes Martin Vickers73,04765.539.424.310.820.
348199Beverley and Holderness Graham Stuart80,65769.040.922.614.617.
352195Selby and Ainsty Nigel Adams75,76574.041.523.013.617.
357190Brigg and Goole Andrew Percy66,06968.241.822.710.520.
363184Yorkshire East Greg Knight81,06566.641.121.312.819.
381166Haltemprice and Howden David Davis71,52071.942.721.215.915.
397150Harrogate and Knaresborough Andrew Jones77,26573.437.414.430.913.
403144Thirsk and Malton Kevin Hollinrake78,67071.142.418.616.
412135Skipton and Ripon Julian Smith78,10874.444.219.813.
45889Richmond Rishi Sunak80,92070.544.917.315.716.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.