Yorks/Humber: Majority Sorted Seats

Yorks/Humber Prediction

Party2019 Votes2019 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 43.1%26 31.3%015-1511
LAB 38.9%28 48.3%150+1543
LIB 8.1%0 7.7%00+00
Reform 5.9%0 3.8%00+00
Green 2.3%0 6.3%00+00
Other 1.8%0 2.4%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Yorks/Humber sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Sheffield Central, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Brigg and Goole, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Elmet and Rothwell (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Pudsey (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Yorks/Humber seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2019ElectorateTurn
16539Sheffield Central Paul Blomfield89,84956.78.666.67.61.914.10.01.3LABLAB
22533Bradford West Naz Shah70,69462.613.467.
27528Leeds Central Hilary Benn90,97154.214.865.
48507Leeds North East Fabian Hamilton70,58071.616.761.
53502York Central Rachael Maskell74,89966.117.961.
58497Bradford East Imran Hussain73,20660.417.760.
73482Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough Gill Furniss69,33357.119.860.
74481Leeds West Rachel Reeves67,72759.520.
82473Hull North Diana Johnson65,51552.
88467Leeds North West Alex Sobel67,74172.817.955.
99456Sheffield Heeley Louise Haigh66,94063.822.
108447Barnsley Central Dan Jarvis65,27756.521.453.
129426Sheffield Hallam Olivia Blake72,76378.217.446.725.
136419Leeds East Richard Burgon67,28658.026.355.
142413Huddersfield Barry Sheerman65,52563.926.354.
147408Hull West and Hessle Emma Hardy60,19252.125.853.
159396Barnsley East Stephanie Peacock69,50454.825.
162393Sheffield South East Clive Betts67,83261.927.653.
171384Rotherham Sarah Champion61,68857.826.951.
172383Hull East Karl Turner65,74549.326.751.
178377Wentworth and Dearne John Healey74,53655.828.
179376Doncaster Central Rosie Winterton71,38958.227.651.
180375Doncaster North Ed Miliband72,36256.227.751.
183372Bradford South Judith Cummins69,04657.629.452.
184371Batley and Spen Tracy Brabin79,55866.528.651.
187368Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford Yvette Cooper84,52757.128.350.
189366Halifax Holly Lynch71,88764.629.952.
193362Hemsworth Jon Trickett73,72659.628.350.
221334Pudsey Stuart Andrew73,21274.
230325Keighley Robbie Moore72,77872.334.749.
231324Dewsbury Mark Eastwood81,25369.434.
233322Wakefield Imran Ahmad-Khan70,19264.134.448.
236319Colne Valley Jason McCartney84,17472.334.
239316Don Valley Nick Fletcher75,35660.333.
240315Calder Valley Craig Whittaker79,28772.935.549.
248307Shipley Philip Davies74,02972.935.
273282York Outer Julian Sturdy74,67374.134.143.813.
275280Rother Valley Alexander Stafford74,80465.
279276Penistone and Stocksbridge Miriam Cates70,92569.835.844.
292263Scunthorpe Holly Mumby-Croft61,95560.938.345.
296259Morley and Outwood Andrea Jenkyns78,80365.938.645.
300255Great Grimsby Lia Nici61,40953.938.
306249Scarborough and Whitby Robert Goodwill74,40466.839.644.
327228Elmet and Rothwell Alec Shelbrooke80,95771.941.
361194Selby and Ainsty Nigel Adams78,39872.
383172Harrogate and Knaresborough Andrew Jones77,94173.
386169Beverley and Holderness Graham Stuart79,69667.243.937.
405150Haltemprice and Howden David Davis71,08370.
409146Skipton and Ripon Julian Smith78,67374.642.734.610.
431124Yorkshire East Greg Knight80,92365.
434121Thirsk and Malton Kevin Hollinrake80,99169.945.
443112Richmond Rishi Sunak82,56969.945.
45996Cleethorpes Martin Vickers73,68962.948.335.
51639Brigg and Goole Andrew Percy65,93965.850.333.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2019. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.