Yorks/Humber: Sorted Seats

Yorks/Humber Prediction

Party2024 Votes2024 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 22.8%9 18.8%03-36
LAB 40.9%43 31.1%020-2023
LIB 7.1%1 8.7%00+01
Reform 16.7%0 29.9%230+2323
Green 7.5%0 9.1%00+00
Other 5.0%1 2.2%00+01

This page shows all the seats in Yorks/Humber sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The seat 'Sheffield Central' where the LAB−CON difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Richmond and Northallerton', where the CON−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.

The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Richmond and Northallerton (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Sheffield Heeley (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Yorks/Humber seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
CON
Seats
SeatMP at 2024ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Reform
%
Green
%
NAT
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2024
Win
Pred
Win
10356Sheffield Central Abtisam Mohamed60,77752.36.745.97.110.627.10.42.20.0LABLAB
12354Sheffield Hallam Olivia Blake73,03370.79.148.220.710.310.40.40.90.0LABLAB
24342York Central Rachael Maskell79,55754.510.545.87.521.014.70.50.00.0LABLAB
28338Leeds Central and Headingley Alex Sobel70,55444.86.839.87.217.823.90.63.80.0LABLAB
29337Sheffield Heeley Louise Haigh73,35952.411.144.08.517.316.40.42.30.0LABLAB
46320Leeds North East Fabian Hamilton70,17864.414.542.25.717.315.80.34.30.0LABLAB
47319Leeds South Hilary Benn75,95341.711.839.46.221.418.50.42.40.0LABLAB
50315Barnsley North Dan Jarvis78,26747.18.936.15.841.96.80.40.00.0LABReform
52314Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough Gill Furniss70,45344.911.538.56.020.915.00.47.70.0LABLAB
59307Hull North and Cottingham Diana Johnson75,28050.811.036.011.832.48.50.20.00.0LABLAB
59306Rotherham Sarah Champion75,92948.65.330.19.640.17.80.26.90.0LABReform
64301Barnsley South Stephanie Peacock75,85046.39.233.25.545.56.20.40.00.0LABReform
65301Leeds North West Katie White71,59269.517.041.011.521.29.10.10.00.0LABLAB
71295Doncaster North Ed Miliband69,75944.416.339.411.423.48.80.20.00.4LABLAB
78288Hull West and Haltemprice Emma Hardy73,25252.113.835.98.035.17.10.10.00.0LABLAB
79287Sheffield South East Clive Betts74,19448.214.436.412.220.910.20.25.50.0LABLAB
90275Hull East Karl Turner70,65042.28.929.611.742.27.30.20.00.0LABReform
92274Bradford East Imran Hussain75,16749.512.032.54.928.67.20.214.50.0LABLAB
105261York Outer Luke Charters76,22867.020.538.610.623.17.00.10.00.0LABLAB
105260Normanton and Hemsworth Jon Trickett75,64548.112.230.28.241.97.30.20.00.0LABReform
107259Leeds East Richard Burgon76,20751.715.232.98.632.510.60.20.00.0LABLAB
108257Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley Yvette Cooper74,61848.212.730.38.242.16.50.20.00.0LABReform
109257Wakefield and Rothwell Simon Lightwood75,06754.215.232.67.832.38.00.13.90.0LABLAB
113253Leeds West and Pudsey Rachel Reeves70,06954.915.132.38.128.511.30.24.50.0LABLAB
115251Leeds South West and Morley Mark Sewards71,85456.017.434.46.932.28.90.10.00.0LABLAB
121245Calder Valley Josh Fenton-Glynn77,36464.119.936.17.326.69.90.10.00.0LABLAB
125240Penistone and Stocksbridge Marie Tidball70,77062.117.933.57.833.96.90.10.00.0LABReform
134232Bradford West Naz Shah77,89747.614.629.54.123.99.70.218.00.0LABLAB
140225Rawmarsh and Conisbrough John Healey69,13249.011.826.16.341.45.70.28.60.0LABReform
140225Bradford South Judith Cummins71,00246.514.328.58.236.510.50.11.70.2LABReform
145221Shipley Anna Dixon74,13065.222.035.65.825.59.80.11.20.0LABLAB
150215Spen Valley Kim Leadbeater72,64256.518.731.46.335.67.80.10.00.0LABReform
157208Doncaster Central Sally Jameson74,67850.816.428.57.236.76.30.24.90.0LABReform
159206Huddersfield Harpreet Uppal77,79551.615.526.87.327.522.70.10.00.0LABReform
163203Colne Valley Paul Davies72,63863.622.933.56.627.19.70.10.00.0LABLAB
179186Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes Melanie Onn78,87546.418.526.98.040.85.60.20.00.0LABReform
183182Selby Keir Mather78,05563.122.730.28.631.27.20.20.00.0LABReform
188177Halifax Kate Alexandra Dearden77,51651.917.623.97.832.99.80.27.80.0LABReform
192173Rother Valley Jake Richards69,46059.924.229.05.734.76.20.10.00.0LABReform
197168Scarborough and Whitby Alison Hume74,55859.323.727.38.933.96.00.20.00.0LABReform
201164Ossett and Denby Dale Jade Botterill72,31260.724.627.28.732.46.90.20.00.0LABReform
204161Scunthorpe Nicholas Dakin74,26352.624.826.47.835.25.60.20.00.0LABReform
206159Dewsbury and Batley Iqbal Hussain Mohamed71,68553.114.615.34.427.55.10.133.10.0MINMIN
211155Keighley and Ilkley Robbie Moore74,36762.131.030.65.924.77.80.10.00.0CONCON
217148Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme Lee Pitcher70,15455.826.224.87.635.85.40.20.00.0LABReform
226139Harrogate and Knaresborough Tom Gordon77,97066.821.618.029.325.75.20.10.00.0LIBLIB
232133Beverley and Holderness Graham Stuart70,55963.629.424.49.431.15.50.20.00.0CONReform
235131Skipton and Ripon Julian Smith79,25167.429.324.310.827.87.60.20.00.0CONCON
256109Bridlington and the Wolds Charlie Dewhirst72,93158.928.820.18.637.35.10.20.00.0CONReform
27195Goole and Pocklington David Davis78,28763.532.221.78.431.46.20.20.00.0CONCON
28778Brigg and Immingham Martin Vickers74,29757.231.118.96.138.25.50.20.00.0CONReform
29769Thirsk and Malton Kevin Hollinrake78,48463.432.418.910.431.46.70.10.00.0CONCON
29868Wetherby and Easingwold Alec Shelbrooke74,33470.335.221.68.725.29.20.10.00.0CONCON
34422Richmond and Northallerton Rishi Sunak73,88865.738.917.59.328.45.30.10.40.0CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.