Yorks/Humber: Majority Sorted Seats

Yorks/Humber Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 40.4%17 20.9%08-89
LAB 49.0%37 31.1%35-235
LIB 5.0%0 14.0%30+33
Brexit 0.0%0 22.7%70+77
Green 1.3%0 7.7%00+00
UKIP 2.6%0 1.6%00+00
Other 1.7%0 2.0%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Yorks/Humber sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Bradford West, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Richmond, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Haltemprice and Howden (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Hull West and Hessle (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Yorks/Humber seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
CON
Seats
SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Brexit
%
Green
%
UKIP
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2017
Win
Pred
Win
3450Bradford West Naz Shah67,56867.411.866.77.95.36.41.00.00.9LABLAB
15438Bradford East Imran Hussain70,38964.812.857.611.09.76.51.30.01.2LABLAB
38415Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough Gill Furniss70,34459.512.447.810.417.68.12.00.01.6LABLAB
44409Leeds Central Hilary Benn89,53753.212.245.913.414.210.71.80.01.7LABLAB
46407Sheffield Central Paul Blomfield77,56061.78.641.419.17.820.21.30.01.6LABLAB
75378Leeds East Richard Burgon65,95062.816.042.010.020.97.51.90.01.8LABLAB
79374Leeds West Rachel Reeves67,95562.113.839.112.419.811.01.90.02.0LABLAB
82371Leeds North East Fabian Hamilton70,11275.618.743.615.610.68.61.10.01.8LABLAB
83370Rotherham Sarah Champion63,23760.014.839.611.223.17.12.30.01.9LABLAB
84369Barnsley Central Dan Jarvis64,20460.912.437.110.028.27.82.40.02.2LABLAB
85368Hull North Diana Johnson64,66657.513.137.715.020.89.41.90.02.1LABLAB
92361Huddersfield Barry Sheerman67,03365.418.542.012.514.49.61.40.01.6LABLAB
103350Sheffield South East Clive Betts68,94563.216.238.811.222.97.11.90.01.8LABLAB
104349Wentworth and Dearne John Healey74,89058.714.637.111.227.36.11.60.02.1LABLAB
107346Doncaster North Ed Miliband72,37258.513.635.69.729.57.12.30.02.2LABLAB
108345York Central Rachael Maskell77,31568.716.238.217.614.510.31.10.02.1LABLAB
110343Barnsley East Stephanie Peacock69,20458.913.335.19.730.76.72.40.02.2LABLAB
112341Sheffield Heeley Louise Haigh68,04065.014.836.414.321.49.21.80.02.1LABLAB
117336Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford Yvette Cooper81,64160.314.535.39.529.76.62.20.02.1LABLAB
119334Hull East Karl Turner65,95955.513.934.310.729.07.62.40.02.1LABLAB
121332Batley and Spen Tracy Brabin80,15367.121.541.610.217.36.61.30.01.5LABLAB
126327Doncaster Central Rosie Winterton71,71660.017.336.910.724.96.51.70.02.0LABLAB
127326Hull West and Hessle Emma Hardy60,18157.415.334.913.624.67.62.10.02.0LABLAB
134319Bradford South Judith Cummins67,75260.620.538.49.320.87.41.90.01.7LABLAB
144309Hemsworth Jon Trickett71,87063.916.933.810.228.26.72.00.02.2LABLAB
169284Halifax Holly Lynch71,22467.822.036.610.520.86.81.60.01.7LABLAB
181272Dewsbury Paula Sherriff81,33869.524.837.410.817.26.91.30.01.7LABLAB
185267Leeds North West Alex Sobel68,15267.910.422.643.711.88.51.00.02.0LABLIB
188265Don Valley Caroline Flint73,98862.220.031.710.128.56.11.50.02.1LABLAB
191262Scunthorpe Nic Dakin61,57865.321.032.39.227.06.91.80.01.9LABLAB
194258Great Grimsby Melanie Onn61,74357.518.829.710.229.87.32.20.02.1LABBrexit
203250Wakefield Mary Creagh70,34065.822.832.310.524.36.71.50.01.9LABLAB
205247Rother Valley Kevin Barron75,23065.819.628.310.629.87.42.20.02.2LABBrexit
214239Keighley John Grogan71,42972.425.632.611.619.27.61.50.01.9LABLAB
216236Sheffield Hallam Jared O Mara73,45577.612.318.446.411.97.71.00.02.2LABLIB
217236Colne Valley Thelma Walker84,38171.624.530.614.519.67.51.30.02.0LABLAB
222230Penistone and Stocksbridge Angela Smith71,29369.821.126.312.628.87.01.80.02.3LABBrexit
236217Pudsey Stuart Andrew72,62274.325.728.914.520.67.01.20.02.2CONLAB
237216Calder Valley Craig Whittaker79,04573.424.227.313.823.08.11.40.02.2CONLAB
240213Morley and Outwood Andrea Jenkyns76,49568.424.827.611.526.16.51.40.02.0CONLAB
253199Scarborough and Whitby Robert Goodwill73,59368.623.824.611.228.38.11.80.02.2CONBrexit
265188Shipley Philip Davies73,13373.027.926.514.520.47.51.20.02.1CONCON
278175York Outer Julian Sturdy75,85675.726.620.720.620.97.71.30.02.2CONCON
278174Cleethorpes Martin Vickers73,04765.526.821.09.831.47.01.90.02.1CONBrexit
282171Elmet and Rothwell Alec Shelbrooke80,29174.228.722.513.824.66.81.30.02.2CONCON
308145Beverley and Holderness Graham Stuart80,65769.028.719.213.528.07.01.40.02.2CONCON
308144Brigg and Goole Andrew Percy66,06968.228.919.39.331.86.81.90.02.1CONBrexit
311142Selby and Ainsty Nigel Adams75,76574.029.419.612.528.16.71.50.02.2CONCON
316136Yorkshire East Greg Knight81,06566.628.217.911.531.07.41.80.02.1CONBrexit
340113Haltemprice and Howden David Davis71,52071.931.117.914.625.97.01.30.02.2CONCON
35994Thirsk and Malton Kevin Hollinrake78,67071.129.915.314.728.77.41.70.02.3CONCON
36686Harrogate and Knaresborough Andrew Jones77,26573.427.111.930.221.66.11.10.02.1CONLIB
38172Skipton and Ripon Julian Smith78,10874.432.616.411.127.48.61.60.02.2CONCON
41241Richmond Rishi Sunak80,92070.533.314.314.127.07.61.50.02.1CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.