Yorks/Humber: Majority Sorted Seats

Yorks/Humber Prediction

Party2019 Votes2019 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 43.1%26 41.3%02-224
LAB 38.9%28 43.4%20+230
LIB 8.1%0 5.2%00+00
Brexit 5.9%0 3.6%00+00
Green 2.3%0 3.3%00+00
Other 1.8%0 3.3%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Yorks/Humber sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Bradford West, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Brigg and Goole, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Elmet and Rothwell (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Wakefield (prediction: CON).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Yorks/Humber seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2019ElectorateTurn
15549Bradford West Naz Shah70,69462.613.878.
25539Sheffield Central Paul Blomfield89,84956.711.970.
43521Bradford East Imran Hussain73,20660.420.
51513Leeds Central Hilary Benn90,97154.220.865.
65499Leeds North East Fabian Hamilton70,58071.621.862.
72492Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough Gill Furniss69,33357.123.761.
81483York Central Rachael Maskell74,89966.
85479Leeds West Rachel Reeves67,72759.527.
94470Hull North Diana Johnson65,51552.225.856.
96468Leeds North West Alex Sobel67,74172.825.055.311.
104460Barnsley Central Dan Jarvis65,27756.519.547.
106458Sheffield Heeley Louise Haigh66,94063.828.555.
130434Leeds East Richard Burgon67,28658.033.854.
138426Barnsley East Stephanie Peacock69,50454.825.445.
145419Hull West and Hessle Emma Hardy60,19252.131.750.13.410.
150414Rotherham Sarah Champion61,68857.830.748.63.610.
153411Sheffield Hallam Olivia Blake72,76378.224.041.625.
155409Sheffield South East Clive Betts67,83261.934.
158406Huddersfield Barry Sheerman65,52563.935.352.
168396Doncaster North Ed Miliband72,36256.
173391Doncaster Central Rosie Winterton71,38958.232.746.
174390Wentworth and Dearne John Healey74,53655.833.
179385Hull East Karl Turner65,74549.333.546.
181383Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford Yvette Cooper84,52757.133.445.
182382Bradford South Judith Cummins69,04657.638.550.
184380Batley and Spen Tracy Brabin79,55866.534.
185379Halifax Holly Lynch71,88764.638.950.
188376Hemsworth Jon Trickett73,72659.633.
220344Dewsbury Mark Eastwood81,25369.444.646.
226338Keighley Robbie Moore72,77872.346.346.
230334Don Valley Nick Fletcher75,35660.341.341.
238326Wakefield Imran Ahmad-Khan70,19264.145.443.
241323Pudsey Stuart Andrew73,21274.
248316Colne Valley Jason McCartney84,17472.346.643.
258306Rother Valley Alexander Stafford74,80465.143.338.
264300Calder Valley Craig Whittaker79,28772.950.
268296Penistone and Stocksbridge Miriam Cates70,92569.846.
270294Shipley Philip Davies74,02972.949.
286278York Outer Julian Sturdy74,67374.147.537.
293271Scunthorpe Holly Mumby-Croft61,95560.952.
312252Scarborough and Whitby Robert Goodwill74,40466.853.737.
313251Great Grimsby Lia Nici61,40953.953.
320244Morley and Outwood Andrea Jenkyns78,80365.954.837.
350214Elmet and Rothwell Alec Shelbrooke80,95771.956.
407157Selby and Ainsty Nigel Adams78,39872.058.427.
431133Beverley and Holderness Graham Stuart79,69667.260.327.
442122Skipton and Ripon Julian Smith78,67374.657.624.
462102Harrogate and Knaresborough Andrew Jones77,94173.150.815.927.
464100Haltemprice and Howden David Davis71,08370.060.525.
50163Yorkshire East Greg Knight80,92365.262.624.
50757Thirsk and Malton Kevin Hollinrake80,99169.961.
52737Richmond Rishi Sunak82,56969.961.720.
53430Cleethorpes Martin Vickers73,68962.967.
55311Brigg and Goole Andrew Percy65,93965.869.423.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2019. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.