Yorks/Humber: Sorted Seats

Yorks/Humber Prediction

Party2024 Votes2024 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 22.8%9 15.4%06-63
LAB 40.9%43 20.2%036-367
LIB 7.1%1 10.2%00+01
Reform 16.7%0 34.0%360+3636
Green 7.5%0 13.3%40+44
Other 5.0%1 6.8%20+23

This page shows all the seats in Yorks/Humber sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Sheffield Hallam' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Brigg and Immingham', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.

The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Scarborough and Whitby (prediction: Reform), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Bradford West (prediction: MIN).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Yorks/Humber seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
Reform
Seats
SeatMP at 2024ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Reform
%
Green
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2024
Win
Pred
Win
14419Sheffield Hallam Olivia Blake73,03370.710.331.223.810.517.17.00.0LABLAB
35398Leeds North West Katie White71,59269.55.947.14.933.14.05.10.0LABLAB
37395Sheffield Central Abtisam Mohamed60,77752.36.923.98.010.437.013.90.0LABGreen
46387Leeds North East Fabian Hamilton70,17864.413.528.68.816.522.89.80.0LABLAB
65368York Central Rachael Maskell79,55754.59.331.28.723.217.79.90.0LABLAB
65367Leeds Central and Headingley Alex Sobel70,55444.86.625.98.818.028.412.40.0LABGreen
70363Sheffield Heeley Louise Haigh73,35952.410.626.510.520.022.210.10.0LABLAB
78355Sheffield South East Clive Betts74,19448.29.135.56.530.310.78.00.0LABLAB
98334Leeds South Hilary Benn75,95341.710.623.47.821.525.011.70.0LABGreen
101332York Outer Luke Charters76,22867.017.029.511.828.58.34.80.0LABLAB
105327Bradford West Naz Shah77,89747.68.115.43.614.921.037.00.0LABMIN
109324Calder Valley Josh Fenton-Glynn77,36464.16.740.43.440.54.05.00.0LABReform
124309Hull North and Cottingham Diana Johnson75,28050.84.040.22.542.04.17.30.0LABReform
130303Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough Gill Furniss70,45344.910.622.19.024.423.310.60.0LABReform
138294Bradford East Imran Hussain75,16749.58.719.35.423.517.325.80.0LABMIN
145288Leeds South West and Morley Mark Sewards71,85456.05.138.82.343.93.56.40.0LABReform
152280Huddersfield Harpreet Uppal77,79551.612.218.26.524.929.68.70.0LABGreen
157276Penistone and Stocksbridge Marie Tidball70,77062.15.239.12.746.72.53.70.0LABReform
159274Selby Keir Mather78,05563.15.638.72.446.32.74.30.0LABReform
162271Leeds West and Pudsey Rachel Reeves70,06954.912.823.57.531.516.58.20.0LABReform
165268Wakefield and Rothwell Simon Lightwood75,06754.26.135.13.543.45.26.60.0LABReform
174259Shipley Anna Dixon74,13065.220.220.99.129.913.56.40.0LABReform
183250Colne Valley Paul Davies72,63863.620.021.89.431.311.85.60.0LABReform
189244Leeds East Richard Burgon76,20751.710.825.46.135.713.98.00.0LABReform
192240Dewsbury and Batley Iqbal Hussain Mohamed71,68553.111.011.24.222.117.234.20.0MINMIN
231202Hull West and Haltemprice Emma Hardy73,25252.18.030.54.645.06.25.60.0LABReform
239194Keighley and Ilkley Robbie Moore74,36762.129.016.97.932.110.83.30.0CONReform
256177Skipton and Ripon Julian Smith79,25167.426.516.311.532.610.32.80.0CONReform
268165Barnsley North Dan Jarvis78,26747.12.934.41.851.73.25.90.0LABReform
275158Halifax Kate Alexandra Dearden77,51651.915.017.28.335.017.56.90.0LABReform
293140Doncaster Central Sally Jameson74,67850.85.232.33.251.93.53.90.0LABReform
297136Normanton and Hemsworth Jon Trickett75,64548.13.732.51.852.63.45.90.0LABReform
303130Beverley and Holderness Graham Stuart70,55963.621.517.311.838.07.93.50.0CONReform
305128Doncaster North Ed Miliband69,75944.48.826.67.047.36.53.60.0LABReform
308125Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley Yvette Cooper74,61848.23.732.51.753.63.05.60.0LABReform
311122Spen Valley Kim Leadbeater72,64256.515.919.29.340.411.04.20.0LABReform
314119Ossett and Denby Dale Jade Botterill72,31260.718.218.58.940.09.54.80.0LABReform
319114Rotherham Sarah Champion75,92948.65.819.98.941.615.68.10.0LABReform
327106Scarborough and Whitby Alison Hume74,55859.318.917.59.040.09.45.30.0LABReform
328105Bradford South Judith Cummins71,00246.512.215.87.738.318.77.40.0LABReform
328104Harrogate and Knaresborough Tom Gordon77,97066.816.06.137.728.77.44.20.0LIBLIB
34093Rawmarsh and Conisbrough John Healey69,13249.04.031.12.154.53.45.00.0LABReform
34786Rother Valley Jake Richards69,46059.920.817.58.841.88.62.50.0LABReform
34984Barnsley South Stephanie Peacock75,85046.33.929.22.753.64.66.00.0LABReform
35181Wetherby and Easingwold Alec Shelbrooke74,33470.342.48.56.033.27.62.40.0CONCON
35875Hull East Karl Turner70,65042.26.423.36.448.78.76.40.0LABReform
37063Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes Melanie Onn78,87546.48.924.85.351.05.64.40.0LABReform
37459Goole and Pocklington David Davis78,28763.535.410.97.037.56.72.50.0CONReform
38944Scunthorpe Nicholas Dakin74,26352.618.116.27.744.78.64.70.0LABReform
40032Thirsk and Malton Kevin Hollinrake78,48463.439.07.46.538.36.32.50.0CONCON
40230Richmond and Northallerton Rishi Sunak73,88865.742.46.46.237.65.42.00.0CONCON
40825Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme Lee Pitcher70,15455.818.314.98.747.77.23.20.0LABReform
42310Bridlington and the Wolds Charlie Dewhirst72,93158.932.47.75.644.55.74.10.0CONReform
4276Brigg and Immingham Martin Vickers74,29757.235.06.94.346.95.11.80.0CONReform

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.