Yorks/Humber: Majority Sorted Seats

Yorks/Humber Prediction

Party2019 Votes2019 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 43.1%26 31.3%015-1511
LAB 38.9%28 48.3%150+1543
LIB 8.1%0 7.7%00+00
Reform 5.9%0 3.8%00+00
Green 2.3%0 6.3%00+00
Other 1.8%0 2.4%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Yorks/Humber sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Sheffield Central, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Brigg and Goole, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Elmet and Rothwell (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Pudsey (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Yorks/Humber seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
CON
Seats
SeatMP at 2019ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Reform
%
Green
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2019
Win
Pred
Win
16539Sheffield Central Paul Blomfield89,84956.78.666.67.61.914.10.01.3LABLAB
22533Bradford West Naz Shah70,69462.613.467.65.14.38.60.01.0LABLAB
27528Leeds Central Hilary Benn90,97154.214.865.65.93.09.10.01.7LABLAB
48507Leeds North East Fabian Hamilton70,58071.616.761.48.72.29.20.01.7LABLAB
53502York Central Rachael Maskell74,89966.117.961.57.62.08.90.02.0LABLAB
58497Bradford East Imran Hussain73,20660.417.760.88.14.57.40.01.5LABLAB
73482Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough Gill Furniss69,33357.119.860.25.54.87.60.02.2LABLAB
74481Leeds West Rachel Reeves67,72759.520.060.35.83.48.30.02.3LABLAB
82473Hull North Diana Johnson65,51552.220.258.07.24.77.50.02.4LABLAB
88467Leeds North West Alex Sobel67,74172.817.955.216.11.97.40.01.6LABLAB
99456Sheffield Heeley Louise Haigh66,94063.822.256.77.23.68.00.02.3LABLAB
108447Barnsley Central Dan Jarvis65,27756.521.453.65.78.56.60.04.3LABLAB
129426Sheffield Hallam Olivia Blake72,76378.217.446.725.21.77.20.01.7LABLAB
136419Leeds East Richard Burgon67,28658.026.355.25.74.26.60.02.1LABLAB
142413Huddersfield Barry Sheerman65,52563.926.354.16.33.48.40.01.5LABLAB
147408Hull West and Hessle Emma Hardy60,19252.125.853.06.86.05.60.02.8LABLAB
159396Barnsley East Stephanie Peacock69,50454.825.051.15.78.36.10.03.8LABLAB
162393Sheffield South East Clive Betts67,83261.927.653.36.05.25.20.02.7LABLAB
171384Rotherham Sarah Champion61,68857.826.951.86.36.95.00.02.9LABLAB
172383Hull East Karl Turner65,74549.326.751.36.56.06.60.03.0LABLAB
178377Wentworth and Dearne John Healey74,53655.828.251.55.76.14.80.03.7LABLAB
179376Doncaster Central Rosie Winterton71,38958.227.651.05.96.26.20.03.2LABLAB
180375Doncaster North Ed Miliband72,36256.227.751.05.56.85.00.04.1LABLAB
183372Bradford South Judith Cummins69,04657.629.452.25.24.66.60.01.9LABLAB
184371Batley and Spen Tracy Brabin79,55866.528.651.35.85.26.10.03.1LABLAB
187368Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford Yvette Cooper84,52757.128.350.56.56.24.80.03.7LABLAB
189366Halifax Holly Lynch71,88764.629.952.05.84.16.20.02.0LABLAB
193362Hemsworth Jon Trickett73,72659.628.350.15.65.95.80.04.4LABLAB
221334Pudsey Stuart Andrew73,21274.133.150.36.22.36.00.02.1CONLAB
230325Keighley Robbie Moore72,77872.334.749.55.73.24.90.01.9CONLAB
231324Dewsbury Mark Eastwood81,25369.434.248.75.53.86.10.01.7CONLAB
233322Wakefield Imran Ahmad-Khan70,19264.134.448.65.34.34.80.02.6CONLAB
236319Colne Valley Jason McCartney84,17472.334.148.16.73.06.10.02.0CONLAB
239316Don Valley Nick Fletcher75,35660.333.146.95.65.75.40.03.2CONLAB
240315Calder Valley Craig Whittaker79,28772.935.549.25.92.44.90.02.1CONLAB
248307Shipley Philip Davies74,02972.935.247.76.32.46.30.02.1CONLAB
273282York Outer Julian Sturdy74,67374.134.143.813.02.24.80.02.1CONLAB
275280Rother Valley Alexander Stafford74,80465.135.144.56.15.55.60.03.2CONLAB
279276Penistone and Stocksbridge Miriam Cates70,92569.835.844.98.14.34.40.02.5CONLAB
292263Scunthorpe Holly Mumby-Croft61,95560.938.345.54.64.15.30.02.2CONLAB
296259Morley and Outwood Andrea Jenkyns78,80365.938.645.15.52.95.70.02.3CONLAB
300255Great Grimsby Lia Nici61,40953.938.044.25.34.65.40.02.4CONLAB
306249Scarborough and Whitby Robert Goodwill74,40466.839.644.26.13.04.40.02.7CONLAB
327228Elmet and Rothwell Alec Shelbrooke80,95771.941.040.57.52.75.90.02.3CONCON
361194Selby and Ainsty Nigel Adams78,39872.043.038.27.43.05.70.02.7CONCON
383172Harrogate and Knaresborough Andrew Jones77,94173.136.230.024.72.34.50.02.2CONCON
386169Beverley and Holderness Graham Stuart79,69667.243.937.47.63.05.50.02.6CONCON
405150Haltemprice and Howden David Davis71,08370.044.036.18.62.86.10.02.4CONCON
409146Skipton and Ripon Julian Smith78,67374.642.734.610.82.76.90.02.4CONCON
431124Yorkshire East Greg Knight80,92365.246.235.27.13.35.60.02.7CONCON
434121Thirsk and Malton Kevin Hollinrake80,99169.945.234.09.22.96.10.02.6CONCON
443112Richmond Rishi Sunak82,56969.945.033.49.33.06.50.02.7CONCON
45996Cleethorpes Martin Vickers73,68962.948.335.45.83.35.20.02.0CONCON
51639Brigg and Goole Andrew Percy65,93965.850.333.75.53.35.10.02.0CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2019. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.