Yorks/Humber: Majority Sorted Seats

Yorks/Humber Prediction

Party	2017 Votes	2017 Seats	Pred Votes	Gains	Losses	Net Change	Pred Seats
CON	40.4%	17	23.4%	0	5	-5	12
LAB	49.0%	37	37.5%	5	1	+4	41
LIB	5.0%	0	5.6%	1	0	+1	1
UKIP	2.6%	0	5.7%	0	0	+0	0
Green	1.3%	0	4.5%	0	0	+0	0
ChUK	0.0%	0	4.1%	0	0	+0	0
Brexit	0.0%	0	17.5%	0	0	+0	0
Minor	1.7%	0	1.7%	0	0	+0	0

This page shows all the seats in Yorks/Humber sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Bradford West, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Richmond, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to York Outer (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Wakefield (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Yorks/Humber seats with predictions

Lab Seats	Con Seats	Seat	MP at 2017	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	UKIP %	Green %	NAT %	ChUK %	Brexit %	MIN %	OTH %	2017 Win	Pred Win
7	543	Bradford West	Naz Shah	67,568	67.4	10.8	65.7	2.9	2.9	5.3	0.0	3.4	8.6	0.0	0.3	LAB	LAB
26	524	Bradford East	Imran Hussain	70,389	64.8	12.7	58.9	3.3	3.9	5.3	0.0	3.7	11.7	0.0	0.5	LAB	LAB
32	518	Sheffield Central	Paul Blomfield	77,560	61.7	8.7	51.2	6.0	5.0	8.8	0.0	4.3	14.9	0.0	1.1	LAB	LAB
49	501	Leeds Central	Hilary Benn	89,537	53.2	11.5	49.2	4.4	5.8	6.2	0.0	4.0	17.4	0.0	1.4	LAB	LAB
52	498	Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough	Gill Furniss	70,344	59.5	12.4	48.5	3.6	6.4	5.2	0.0	3.6	19.0	0.0	1.3	LAB	LAB
75	475	Leeds North East	Fabian Hamilton	70,112	75.6	18.6	51.0	5.5	3.5	5.2	0.0	4.3	11.0	0.0	1.0	LAB	LAB
82	468	York Central	Rachael Maskell	77,315	68.7	18.5	49.8	6.5	3.6	4.5	0.0	4.6	11.2	0.0	1.4	LAB	LAB
91	459	Leeds West	Rachel Reeves	67,955	62.1	14.8	44.7	4.2	6.3	5.5	0.0	3.9	19.0	0.0	1.8	LAB	LAB
95	455	Hull North	Diana Johnson	64,666	57.5	14.2	43.7	5.3	6.4	5.2	0.0	4.1	19.2	0.0	1.9	LAB	LAB
106	444	Leeds East	Richard Burgon	65,950	62.8	16.7	44.8	3.6	6.3	4.7	0.0	3.6	18.9	0.0	1.4	LAB	LAB
108	442	Huddersfield	Barry Sheerman	67,033	65.4	18.6	46.7	4.4	5.0	5.1	0.0	4.1	15.1	0.0	1.2	LAB	LAB
120	430	Barnsley Central	Dan Jarvis	64,204	60.9	14.3	40.7	3.4	7.6	5.2	0.0	3.7	22.9	0.0	2.1	LAB	LAB
123	427	Sheffield Heeley	Louise Haigh	68,040	65.0	16.4	42.7	5.1	6.2	5.0	0.0	4.0	18.8	0.0	1.8	LAB	LAB
126	424	Wentworth and Dearne	John Healey	74,890	58.7	18.8	44.8	4.7	5.4	3.6	0.0	4.1	16.6	0.0	2.0	LAB	LAB
128	422	Rotherham	Sarah Champion	63,237	60.0	15.2	40.7	4.4	7.4	4.9	0.0	3.7	22.1	0.0	1.7	LAB	LAB
131	419	Sheffield South East	Clive Betts	68,945	63.2	17.9	42.5	4.1	6.3	4.8	0.0	3.8	19.1	0.0	1.5	LAB	LAB
137	413	Doncaster North	Ed Miliband	72,372	58.5	16.0	40.0	3.6	7.4	4.8	0.0	3.8	22.3	0.0	2.2	LAB	LAB
143	407	Barnsley East	Stephanie Peacock	69,204	58.9	15.8	39.2	3.5	7.7	4.7	0.0	3.6	23.3	0.0	2.2	LAB	LAB
146	404	Batley and Spen	Tracy Brabin	80,153	67.1	22.8	45.7	3.9	4.6	3.8	0.0	3.9	14.2	0.0	1.1	LAB	LAB
147	403	Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford	Yvette Cooper	81,641	60.3	17.5	40.4	3.5	7.1	4.3	0.0	3.6	21.4	0.0	2.2	LAB	LAB
148	402	Leeds North West	Alex Sobel	68,152	67.9	13.9	36.7	21.1	3.6	5.4	0.0	6.7	11.4	0.0	1.1	LAB	LAB
151	399	Hull East	Karl Turner	65,959	55.5	15.9	38.2	4.1	7.7	4.7	0.0	3.7	23.3	0.0	2.3	LAB	LAB
154	396	Hull West and Hessle	Emma Hardy	60,181	57.4	17.0	39.2	5.7	6.8	4.6	0.0	4.0	20.6	0.0	2.0	LAB	LAB
155	395	Doncaster Central	Rosie Winterton	71,716	60.0	19.9	42.1	4.0	5.9	4.0	0.0	3.9	18.1	0.0	1.9	LAB	LAB
165	385	Bradford South	Judith Cummins	67,752	60.6	20.8	41.0	3.3	6.2	4.7	0.0	3.7	18.7	0.0	1.5	LAB	LAB
170	380	Hemsworth	Jon Trickett	71,870	63.9	19.6	39.2	3.7	6.8	4.4	0.0	3.7	20.6	0.0	2.0	LAB	LAB
183	367	Halifax	Holly Lynch	71,224	67.8	23.4	41.5	3.9	5.4	4.3	0.0	3.9	16.4	0.0	1.3	LAB	LAB
198	352	Dewsbury	Paula Sherriff	81,338	69.5	25.9	42.2	3.9	4.7	4.0	0.0	4.0	14.3	0.0	1.0	LAB	LAB
210	339	Sheffield Hallam	Jared O Mara	73,455	77.6	15.3	29.8	29.9	3.4	4.8	0.0	5.3	10.6	0.0	1.0	LAB	LIB
212	338	Don Valley	Caroline Flint	73,988	62.2	24.7	39.1	3.9	5.6	3.4	0.0	3.9	17.3	0.0	2.1	LAB	LAB
217	333	Scunthorpe	Nic Dakin	61,578	65.3	24.0	37.6	3.5	6.3	3.8	0.0	3.7	19.2	0.0	2.0	LAB	LAB
224	326	Wakefield	Mary Creagh	70,340	65.8	25.5	38.5	4.0	5.7	3.4	0.0	3.8	17.4	0.0	1.8	LAB	LAB
227	323	Great Grimsby	Melanie Onn	61,743	57.5	21.6	34.3	4.0	7.3	4.4	0.0	3.8	22.3	0.0	2.3	LAB	LAB
239	311	Keighley	John Grogan	71,429	72.4	26.5	37.4	4.1	5.4	4.9	0.0	4.1	16.3	0.0	1.3	LAB	LAB
240	310	Rother Valley	Kevin Barron	75,230	65.8	22.3	33.1	3.7	7.5	4.9	0.0	3.8	22.6	0.0	2.1	LAB	LAB
241	309	Colne Valley	Thelma Walker	84,381	71.6	27.2	38.0	5.3	4.8	4.2	0.0	4.4	14.7	0.0	1.5	LAB	LAB
254	296	Pudsey	Stuart Andrew	72,622	74.3	29.2	37.8	5.3	4.4	3.7	0.0	4.3	13.7	0.0	1.6	CON	LAB
259	291	Penistone and Stocksbridge	Angela Smith	71,293	69.8	24.6	32.8	4.6	6.8	4.6	0.0	3.9	20.7	0.0	2.0	LAB	LAB
265	285	Calder Valley	Craig Whittaker	79,045	73.4	27.3	35.1	5.0	5.5	4.4	0.0	4.2	16.8	0.0	1.8	CON	LAB
282	268	Morley and Outwood	Andrea Jenkyns	76,495	68.4	29.6	35.6	4.5	5.1	3.3	0.0	4.0	15.9	0.0	1.9	CON	LAB
300	250	Scarborough and Whitby	Robert Goodwill	73,593	68.6	26.7	30.8	4.2	6.9	4.6	0.0	3.9	20.8	0.0	2.1	CON	LAB
302	248	Shipley	Philip Davies	73,133	73.0	31.5	35.2	5.7	4.4	3.5	0.0	4.4	13.7	0.0	1.6	CON	LAB
331	219	York Outer	Julian Sturdy	75,856	75.7	31.8	30.2	8.7	4.6	4.1	0.0	4.8	14.2	0.0	1.5	CON	CON
336	214	Elmet and Rothwell	Alec Shelbrooke	80,291	74.2	33.0	30.7	5.4	5.2	3.6	0.0	4.2	16.0	0.0	1.8	CON	CON
354	196	Cleethorpes	Martin Vickers	73,047	65.5	30.8	26.8	3.8	7.1	4.1	0.0	3.8	21.4	0.0	2.2	CON	CON
384	166	Selby and Ainsty	Nigel Adams	75,765	74.0	34.0	27.1	4.9	6.0	3.6	0.0	4.0	18.4	0.0	2.0	CON	CON
386	164	Beverley and Holderness	Graham Stuart	80,657	69.0	34.2	27.2	5.5	5.7	3.4	0.0	4.2	17.6	0.0	2.0	CON	CON
389	161	Brigg and Goole	Andrew Percy	66,069	68.2	33.1	25.4	3.6	7.0	3.8	0.0	3.7	21.3	0.0	2.2	CON	CON
393	157	Yorkshire East	Greg Knight	81,065	66.6	32.2	24.2	4.6	7.0	4.2	0.0	4.0	21.4	0.0	2.3	CON	CON
427	123	Haltemprice and Howden	David Davis	71,520	71.9	36.8	26.2	5.6	5.3	3.5	0.0	4.3	16.5	0.0	1.9	CON	CON
445	105	Thirsk and Malton	Kevin Hollinrake	78,670	71.1	33.9	22.1	6.2	6.7	4.4	0.0	4.2	20.4	0.0	2.1	CON	CON
463	87	Skipton and Ripon	Julian Smith	78,108	74.4	36.1	23.6	3.1	6.6	4.7	0.0	3.9	20.0	0.0	2.1	CON	CON
480	70	Harrogate and Knaresborough	Andrew Jones	77,265	73.4	33.6	19.8	15.2	5.0	3.6	0.0	5.7	15.4	0.0	1.7	CON	CON
506	44	Richmond	Rishi Sunak	80,920	70.5	37.4	21.4	6.0	6.2	3.7	0.0	4.2	19.0	0.0	2.1	CON	CON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.