Yorks/Humber: Majority Sorted Seats

Yorks/Humber Prediction

Party2019 Votes2019 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 43.1%26 41.3%02-224
LAB 38.9%28 43.4%20+230
LIB 8.1%0 5.2%00+00
Brexit 5.9%0 3.6%00+00
Green 2.3%0 3.3%00+00
Other 1.8%0 3.3%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Yorks/Humber sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Bradford West, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Brigg and Goole, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Elmet and Rothwell (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Wakefield (prediction: CON).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Yorks/Humber seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
CON
Seats
SeatMP at 2019ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Brexit
%
Green
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2019
Win
Pred
Win
15549Bradford West Naz Shah70,69462.613.878.81.92.12.40.01.0LABLAB
25539Sheffield Central Paul Blomfield89,84956.711.970.13.92.39.70.02.0LABLAB
43521Bradford East Imran Hussain73,20660.420.167.74.63.62.50.01.5LABLAB
51513Leeds Central Hilary Benn90,97154.220.865.72.93.65.20.01.8LABLAB
65499Leeds North East Fabian Hamilton70,58071.621.862.46.92.14.90.01.9LABLAB
72492Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough Gill Furniss69,33357.123.761.32.35.74.00.03.0LABLAB
81483York Central Rachael Maskell74,89966.126.059.35.11.85.20.02.7LABLAB
85479Leeds West Rachel Reeves67,72759.527.059.22.73.94.10.03.1LABLAB
94470Hull North Diana Johnson65,51552.225.856.33.78.24.00.02.1LABLAB
96468Leeds North West Alex Sobel67,74172.825.055.311.71.64.30.02.1LABLAB
104460Barnsley Central Dan Jarvis65,27756.519.547.52.022.24.10.04.8LABLAB
106458Sheffield Heeley Louise Haigh66,94063.828.555.44.24.95.40.01.6LABLAB
130434Leeds East Richard Burgon67,28658.033.854.32.84.53.20.01.4LABLAB
138426Barnsley East Stephanie Peacock69,50454.825.445.12.120.94.10.02.4LABLAB
145419Hull West and Hessle Emma Hardy60,19252.131.750.13.410.51.80.02.4LABLAB
150414Rotherham Sarah Champion61,68857.830.748.63.610.11.60.05.4LABLAB
153411Sheffield Hallam Olivia Blake72,76378.224.041.625.71.64.40.02.7LABLAB
155409Sheffield South East Clive Betts67,83261.934.051.43.16.21.20.04.0LABLAB
158406Huddersfield Barry Sheerman65,52563.935.352.73.52.35.00.01.2LABLAB
168396Doncaster North Ed Miliband72,36256.231.046.22.212.11.70.06.8LABLAB
173391Doncaster Central Rosie Winterton71,38958.232.746.72.69.63.80.04.5LABLAB
174390Wentworth and Dearne John Healey74,53655.833.247.12.59.91.50.05.8LABLAB
179385Hull East Karl Turner65,74549.333.546.53.210.44.00.02.3LABLAB
181383Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford Yvette Cooper84,52757.133.445.24.09.81.60.06.0LABLAB
182382Bradford South Judith Cummins69,04657.638.550.32.34.23.40.01.3LABLAB
184380Batley and Spen Tracy Brabin79,55866.534.245.92.91.92.012.21.0LABLAB
185379Halifax Holly Lynch71,88764.638.950.33.03.52.90.01.3LABLAB
188376Hemsworth Jon Trickett73,72659.633.043.32.47.93.45.64.4LABLAB
220344Dewsbury Mark Eastwood81,25369.444.646.82.61.92.60.01.4CONLAB
226338Keighley Robbie Moore72,77872.346.346.73.00.90.60.02.4CONLAB
230334Don Valley Nick Fletcher75,35660.341.341.12.68.13.20.03.7CONCON
238326Wakefield Imran Ahmad-Khan70,19264.145.443.62.43.50.80.04.1CONCON
241323Pudsey Stuart Andrew73,21274.147.044.93.50.02.20.02.4CONCON
248316Colne Valley Jason McCartney84,17472.346.643.43.81.22.50.02.5CONCON
258306Rother Valley Alexander Stafford74,80465.143.338.13.27.53.80.04.0CONCON
264300Calder Valley Craig Whittaker79,28772.950.044.33.10.00.50.02.0CONCON
268296Penistone and Stocksbridge Miriam Cates70,92569.846.039.46.35.11.30.01.9CONCON
270294Shipley Philip Davies74,02972.949.041.93.60.03.00.02.5CONCON
286278York Outer Julian Sturdy74,67374.147.537.111.10.01.30.03.1CONCON
293271Scunthorpe Holly Mumby-Croft61,95560.952.039.91.43.22.50.01.0CONCON
312252Scarborough and Whitby Robert Goodwill74,40466.853.737.63.70.00.60.04.4CONCON
313251Great Grimsby Lia Nici61,40953.953.036.62.04.22.40.01.7CONCON
320244Morley and Outwood Andrea Jenkyns78,80365.954.837.32.70.02.60.02.6CONCON
350214Elmet and Rothwell Alec Shelbrooke80,95771.956.131.55.40.03.80.03.1CONCON
407157Selby and Ainsty Nigel Adams78,39872.058.427.95.30.04.00.04.4CONCON
431133Beverley and Holderness Graham Stuart79,69667.260.327.35.40.03.30.03.8CONCON
442122Skipton and Ripon Julian Smith78,67374.657.624.09.10.05.80.03.5CONCON
462102Harrogate and Knaresborough Andrew Jones77,94173.150.815.927.90.01.40.04.1CONCON
464100Haltemprice and Howden David Davis71,08370.060.525.46.40.04.40.03.3CONCON
50163Yorkshire East Greg Knight80,92365.262.624.44.90.03.90.04.2CONCON
50757Thirsk and Malton Kevin Hollinrake80,99169.961.122.77.30.04.90.03.9CONCON
52737Richmond Rishi Sunak82,56969.961.720.77.40.05.30.04.9CONCON
53430Cleethorpes Martin Vickers73,68962.967.125.33.40.03.30.00.8CONCON
55311Brigg and Goole Andrew Percy65,93965.869.423.23.10.03.50.00.8CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2019. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.