Yorks/Humber: Majority Sorted Seats

Yorks/Humber Prediction

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Seats	Pred Votes	Gains	Losses	Net Change	Pred Seats
CON	43.1%	26	31.3%	0	15	-15	11
LAB	38.9%	28	48.3%	15	0	+15	43
LIB	8.1%	0	7.7%	0	0	+0	0
Reform	5.9%	0	3.8%	0	0	+0	0
Green	2.3%	0	6.3%	0	0	+0	0
Other	1.8%	0	2.4%	0	0	+0	0

This page shows all the seats in Yorks/Humber sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Sheffield Central, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Brigg and Goole, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Elmet and Rothwell (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Pudsey (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Yorks/Humber seats with predictions

LAB Seats	CON Seats	Seat	MP at 2019	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	Reform %	Green %	MIN %	OTH %	2019 Win	Pred Win
16	539	Sheffield Central	Paul Blomfield	89,849	56.7	8.6	66.6	7.6	1.9	14.1	0.0	1.3	LAB	LAB
22	533	Bradford West	Naz Shah	70,694	62.6	13.4	67.6	5.1	4.3	8.6	0.0	1.0	LAB	LAB
27	528	Leeds Central	Hilary Benn	90,971	54.2	14.8	65.6	5.9	3.0	9.1	0.0	1.7	LAB	LAB
48	507	Leeds North East	Fabian Hamilton	70,580	71.6	16.7	61.4	8.7	2.2	9.2	0.0	1.7	LAB	LAB
53	502	York Central	Rachael Maskell	74,899	66.1	17.9	61.5	7.6	2.0	8.9	0.0	2.0	LAB	LAB
58	497	Bradford East	Imran Hussain	73,206	60.4	17.7	60.8	8.1	4.5	7.4	0.0	1.5	LAB	LAB
73	482	Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough	Gill Furniss	69,333	57.1	19.8	60.2	5.5	4.8	7.6	0.0	2.2	LAB	LAB
74	481	Leeds West	Rachel Reeves	67,727	59.5	20.0	60.3	5.8	3.4	8.3	0.0	2.3	LAB	LAB
82	473	Hull North	Diana Johnson	65,515	52.2	20.2	58.0	7.2	4.7	7.5	0.0	2.4	LAB	LAB
88	467	Leeds North West	Alex Sobel	67,741	72.8	17.9	55.2	16.1	1.9	7.4	0.0	1.6	LAB	LAB
99	456	Sheffield Heeley	Louise Haigh	66,940	63.8	22.2	56.7	7.2	3.6	8.0	0.0	2.3	LAB	LAB
108	447	Barnsley Central	Dan Jarvis	65,277	56.5	21.4	53.6	5.7	8.5	6.6	0.0	4.3	LAB	LAB
129	426	Sheffield Hallam	Olivia Blake	72,763	78.2	17.4	46.7	25.2	1.7	7.2	0.0	1.7	LAB	LAB
136	419	Leeds East	Richard Burgon	67,286	58.0	26.3	55.2	5.7	4.2	6.6	0.0	2.1	LAB	LAB
142	413	Huddersfield	Barry Sheerman	65,525	63.9	26.3	54.1	6.3	3.4	8.4	0.0	1.5	LAB	LAB
147	408	Hull West and Hessle	Emma Hardy	60,192	52.1	25.8	53.0	6.8	6.0	5.6	0.0	2.8	LAB	LAB
159	396	Barnsley East	Stephanie Peacock	69,504	54.8	25.0	51.1	5.7	8.3	6.1	0.0	3.8	LAB	LAB
162	393	Sheffield South East	Clive Betts	67,832	61.9	27.6	53.3	6.0	5.2	5.2	0.0	2.7	LAB	LAB
171	384	Rotherham	Sarah Champion	61,688	57.8	26.9	51.8	6.3	6.9	5.0	0.0	2.9	LAB	LAB
172	383	Hull East	Karl Turner	65,745	49.3	26.7	51.3	6.5	6.0	6.6	0.0	3.0	LAB	LAB
178	377	Wentworth and Dearne	John Healey	74,536	55.8	28.2	51.5	5.7	6.1	4.8	0.0	3.7	LAB	LAB
179	376	Doncaster Central	Rosie Winterton	71,389	58.2	27.6	51.0	5.9	6.2	6.2	0.0	3.2	LAB	LAB
180	375	Doncaster North	Ed Miliband	72,362	56.2	27.7	51.0	5.5	6.8	5.0	0.0	4.1	LAB	LAB
183	372	Bradford South	Judith Cummins	69,046	57.6	29.4	52.2	5.2	4.6	6.6	0.0	1.9	LAB	LAB
184	371	Batley and Spen	Tracy Brabin	79,558	66.5	28.6	51.3	5.8	5.2	6.1	0.0	3.1	LAB	LAB
187	368	Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford	Yvette Cooper	84,527	57.1	28.3	50.5	6.5	6.2	4.8	0.0	3.7	LAB	LAB
189	366	Halifax	Holly Lynch	71,887	64.6	29.9	52.0	5.8	4.1	6.2	0.0	2.0	LAB	LAB
193	362	Hemsworth	Jon Trickett	73,726	59.6	28.3	50.1	5.6	5.9	5.8	0.0	4.4	LAB	LAB
221	334	Pudsey	Stuart Andrew	73,212	74.1	33.1	50.3	6.2	2.3	6.0	0.0	2.1	CON	LAB
230	325	Keighley	Robbie Moore	72,778	72.3	34.7	49.5	5.7	3.2	4.9	0.0	1.9	CON	LAB
231	324	Dewsbury	Mark Eastwood	81,253	69.4	34.2	48.7	5.5	3.8	6.1	0.0	1.7	CON	LAB
233	322	Wakefield	Imran Ahmad-Khan	70,192	64.1	34.4	48.6	5.3	4.3	4.8	0.0	2.6	CON	LAB
236	319	Colne Valley	Jason McCartney	84,174	72.3	34.1	48.1	6.7	3.0	6.1	0.0	2.0	CON	LAB
239	316	Don Valley	Nick Fletcher	75,356	60.3	33.1	46.9	5.6	5.7	5.4	0.0	3.2	CON	LAB
240	315	Calder Valley	Craig Whittaker	79,287	72.9	35.5	49.2	5.9	2.4	4.9	0.0	2.1	CON	LAB
248	307	Shipley	Philip Davies	74,029	72.9	35.2	47.7	6.3	2.4	6.3	0.0	2.1	CON	LAB
273	282	York Outer	Julian Sturdy	74,673	74.1	34.1	43.8	13.0	2.2	4.8	0.0	2.1	CON	LAB
275	280	Rother Valley	Alexander Stafford	74,804	65.1	35.1	44.5	6.1	5.5	5.6	0.0	3.2	CON	LAB
279	276	Penistone and Stocksbridge	Miriam Cates	70,925	69.8	35.8	44.9	8.1	4.3	4.4	0.0	2.5	CON	LAB
292	263	Scunthorpe	Holly Mumby-Croft	61,955	60.9	38.3	45.5	4.6	4.1	5.3	0.0	2.2	CON	LAB
296	259	Morley and Outwood	Andrea Jenkyns	78,803	65.9	38.6	45.1	5.5	2.9	5.7	0.0	2.3	CON	LAB
300	255	Great Grimsby	Lia Nici	61,409	53.9	38.0	44.2	5.3	4.6	5.4	0.0	2.4	CON	LAB
306	249	Scarborough and Whitby	Robert Goodwill	74,404	66.8	39.6	44.2	6.1	3.0	4.4	0.0	2.7	CON	LAB
327	228	Elmet and Rothwell	Alec Shelbrooke	80,957	71.9	41.0	40.5	7.5	2.7	5.9	0.0	2.3	CON	CON
361	194	Selby and Ainsty	Nigel Adams	78,398	72.0	43.0	38.2	7.4	3.0	5.7	0.0	2.7	CON	CON
383	172	Harrogate and Knaresborough	Andrew Jones	77,941	73.1	36.2	30.0	24.7	2.3	4.5	0.0	2.2	CON	CON
386	169	Beverley and Holderness	Graham Stuart	79,696	67.2	43.9	37.4	7.6	3.0	5.5	0.0	2.6	CON	CON
405	150	Haltemprice and Howden	David Davis	71,083	70.0	44.0	36.1	8.6	2.8	6.1	0.0	2.4	CON	CON
409	146	Skipton and Ripon	Julian Smith	78,673	74.6	42.7	34.6	10.8	2.7	6.9	0.0	2.4	CON	CON
431	124	Yorkshire East	Greg Knight	80,923	65.2	46.2	35.2	7.1	3.3	5.6	0.0	2.7	CON	CON
434	121	Thirsk and Malton	Kevin Hollinrake	80,991	69.9	45.2	34.0	9.2	2.9	6.1	0.0	2.6	CON	CON
443	112	Richmond	Rishi Sunak	82,569	69.9	45.0	33.4	9.3	3.0	6.5	0.0	2.7	CON	CON
459	96	Cleethorpes	Martin Vickers	73,689	62.9	48.3	35.4	5.8	3.3	5.2	0.0	2.0	CON	CON
516	39	Brigg and Goole	Andrew Percy	65,939	65.8	50.3	33.7	5.5	3.3	5.1	0.0	2.0	CON	CON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2019. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.