Yorks/Humber: Majority Sorted Seats

Yorks/Humber Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 40.4%17 40.5%50+522
LAB 49.0%37 39.6%06-631
LIB 5.0%0 9.0%10+11
Brexit 0.0%0 6.2%00+00
Green 1.3%0 3.0%00+00
UKIP 2.6%0 0.0%00+00
Other 1.7%0 1.7%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Yorks/Humber sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Bradford West, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Richmond, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Scarborough and Whitby (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Bradford South (prediction: CON).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Yorks/Humber seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
CON
Seats
SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Brexit
%
Green
%
NAT
%
UKIP
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2017
Win
Pred
Win
12557Bradford West Naz Shah67,56867.417.065.92.97.34.30.00.00.02.6LABLAB
28541Sheffield Central Paul Blomfield77,56061.714.755.49.74.514.00.00.00.01.7LABLAB
30539Bradford East Imran Hussain70,38964.821.061.35.68.73.40.00.00.00.0LABLAB
44525Leeds Central Hilary Benn89,53753.222.354.96.88.35.80.00.00.01.9LABLAB
48521Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough Gill Furniss70,34459.524.754.76.110.63.80.00.00.00.0LABLAB
73496York Central Rachael Maskell77,31568.726.451.510.45.74.10.00.00.01.9LABLAB
84485Leeds West Rachel Reeves67,95562.126.549.57.19.45.30.00.00.02.1LABLAB
85484Leeds North East Fabian Hamilton70,11275.628.151.19.75.23.90.00.00.01.9LABLAB
86483Hull North Diana Johnson64,66657.526.649.59.310.04.60.00.00.00.0LABLAB
95474Huddersfield Barry Sheerman67,03365.429.550.27.37.65.30.00.00.00.0LABLAB
103466Leeds East Richard Burgon65,95062.830.349.76.310.43.30.00.00.00.0LABLAB
114455Sheffield Heeley Louise Haigh68,04065.029.047.59.49.84.30.00.00.00.0LABLAB
118451Barnsley Central Dan Jarvis64,20460.928.746.85.912.73.50.00.00.02.4LABLAB
121448Rotherham Sarah Champion63,23760.029.647.16.913.60.00.00.00.02.7LABLAB
125444Leeds North West Alex Sobel68,15267.920.637.732.15.34.40.00.00.00.0LABLAB
129440Sheffield South East Clive Betts68,94563.231.747.87.211.10.00.00.00.02.2LABLAB
134435Doncaster North Ed Miliband72,37258.530.746.27.013.60.00.00.00.02.7LABLAB
141428Wentworth and Dearne John Healey74,89058.732.447.07.710.80.00.00.00.02.2LABLAB
148421Hull West and Hessle Emma Hardy60,18157.431.144.18.912.33.60.00.00.00.0LABLAB
149420Batley and Spen Tracy Brabin80,15367.134.147.05.18.83.20.00.00.01.9LABLAB
150419Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford Yvette Cooper81,64160.332.245.16.813.30.00.00.00.02.6LABLAB
151418Hull East Karl Turner65,95955.531.644.57.213.33.50.00.00.00.0LABLAB
153416Barnsley East Stephanie Peacock69,20458.931.444.16.814.92.80.00.00.00.0LABLAB
165404Doncaster Central Rosie Winterton71,71660.033.244.06.011.32.80.00.00.02.7LABLAB
165403Sheffield Hallam Jared O Mara73,45577.619.730.639.74.63.30.00.00.02.1LABLIB
181388Hemsworth Jon Trickett71,87063.933.842.95.912.12.70.00.00.02.5LABLAB
183386Halifax Holly Lynch71,22467.836.545.16.29.62.60.00.00.00.0LABLAB
194375Dewsbury Paula Sherriff81,33869.537.044.65.47.93.40.00.00.01.7LABLAB
209360Colne Valley Thelma Walker84,38171.638.944.46.86.02.30.00.00.01.7LABLAB
219350Scunthorpe Nic Dakin61,57865.340.143.56.77.71.90.00.00.00.0LABLAB
225344Wakefield Mary Creagh70,34065.840.242.27.18.70.00.00.00.01.8LABLAB
231338Rother Valley Kevin Barron75,23065.838.038.26.411.93.20.00.00.02.3LABLAB
234335Keighley John Grogan71,42972.443.343.16.55.60.00.00.00.01.5LABCON
236333Penistone and Stocksbridge Angela Smith71,29369.840.138.89.711.40.00.00.00.00.0LABCON
243326Bradford South Judith Cummins67,75260.641.539.64.810.93.20.00.00.00.0LABCON
247322Don Valley Caroline Flint73,98862.235.833.311.013.53.70.00.00.02.7LABCON
249320Great Grimsby Melanie Onn61,74357.541.138.54.811.02.50.00.00.02.1LABCON
255314Shipley Philip Davies73,13373.046.740.49.30.02.10.00.00.01.5CONCON
270299Pudsey Stuart Andrew72,62274.350.436.99.30.02.10.00.00.01.3CONCON
275294Calder Valley Craig Whittaker79,04573.451.836.910.10.00.00.00.00.01.3CONCON
290279York Outer Julian Sturdy75,85675.750.732.815.00.00.00.00.00.01.5CONCON
310259Morley and Outwood Andrea Jenkyns76,49568.455.734.37.40.01.70.00.00.00.9CONCON
329240Scarborough and Whitby Robert Goodwill73,59368.656.933.18.70.00.00.00.00.01.2CONCON
342227Elmet and Rothwell Alec Shelbrooke80,29174.256.530.59.40.02.40.00.00.01.2CONCON
415154Harrogate and Knaresborough Andrew Jones77,26573.453.722.122.70.00.00.00.00.01.5CONCON
443126Beverley and Holderness Graham Stuart80,65769.060.427.09.10.02.30.00.00.01.2CONCON
459110Haltemprice and Howden David Davis71,52071.960.326.19.90.02.50.00.00.01.2CONCON
464105Selby and Ainsty Nigel Adams75,76574.061.827.48.30.01.60.00.00.00.9CONCON
48188Cleethorpes Martin Vickers73,04765.563.627.67.00.01.80.00.00.00.0CONCON
49178Skipton and Ripon Julian Smith78,10874.461.124.68.50.04.70.00.00.01.2CONCON
52247Thirsk and Malton Kevin Hollinrake78,67071.162.423.610.20.02.50.00.00.01.3CONCON
52445Yorkshire East Greg Knight81,06566.663.724.97.90.02.30.00.00.01.1CONCON
53336Brigg and Goole Andrew Percy66,06968.265.326.16.80.01.80.00.00.00.0CONCON
54326Richmond Rishi Sunak80,92070.563.022.29.90.03.50.00.00.01.4CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.