Yorks/Humber: Sorted Seats

Yorks/Humber Prediction

Party2024 Votes2024 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 22.8%9 15.8%05-54
LAB 40.9%43 20.1%035-358
LIB 7.1%1 9.5%00+01
Reform 16.7%0 33.2%330+3333
Green 7.5%0 14.7%50+55
Other 5.0%1 6.8%20+23

This page shows all the seats in Yorks/Humber sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Sheffield Hallam' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Brigg and Immingham', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.

The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Rother Valley (prediction: Reform), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Sheffield Heeley (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Yorks/Humber seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
Reform
Seats
SeatMP at 2024ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Reform
%
Green
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2024
Win
Pred
Win
13401Sheffield Hallam Olivia Blake73,03370.710.731.123.29.618.47.00.0LABLAB
35379Leeds North West Katie White71,59269.56.446.65.232.04.85.00.0LABLAB
35378Sheffield Central Abtisam Mohamed60,77752.37.323.77.09.538.613.80.0LABGreen
41373Leeds North East Fabian Hamilton70,17864.413.928.57.815.624.49.70.0LABLAB
63350Leeds Central and Headingley Alex Sobel70,55444.87.025.87.917.129.912.40.0LABGreen
64350York Central Rachael Maskell79,55754.59.830.78.122.219.39.80.0LABLAB
67347Sheffield Heeley Louise Haigh73,35952.411.026.49.619.123.710.10.0LABLAB
93320Leeds South Hilary Benn75,95341.711.023.36.620.626.811.70.0LABGreen
95319Sheffield South East Clive Betts74,19448.212.827.88.426.116.98.00.0LABLAB
97316Bradford West Naz Shah77,89747.68.415.33.214.122.037.00.0LABMIN
98316York Outer Luke Charters76,22867.019.925.813.425.210.94.80.0LABLAB
99315Calder Valley Josh Fenton-Glynn77,36464.17.839.23.938.95.35.00.0LABLAB
116297Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough Gill Furniss70,45344.911.122.07.423.525.410.60.0LABGreen
129284Bradford East Imran Hussain75,16749.59.019.25.122.618.325.70.0LABMIN
131283Hull North and Cottingham Diana Johnson75,28050.86.135.74.139.37.67.20.0LABReform
137277Leeds South West and Morley Mark Sewards71,85456.05.838.22.542.74.66.30.0LABReform
143270Huddersfield Harpreet Uppal77,79551.612.618.15.824.030.98.60.0LABGreen
147267Penistone and Stocksbridge Marie Tidball70,77062.15.339.52.646.02.93.70.0LABReform
153261Selby Keir Mather78,05563.16.537.82.844.93.64.30.0LABReform
160254Leeds West and Pudsey Rachel Reeves70,06954.913.722.47.130.218.68.20.0LABReform
164250Shipley Anna Dixon74,13065.220.620.88.329.014.96.40.0LABReform
171243Colne Valley Paul Davies72,63863.620.321.78.830.513.15.60.0LABReform
177237Wakefield and Rothwell Simon Lightwood75,06754.28.531.14.840.58.56.60.0LABReform
182231Dewsbury and Batley Iqbal Hussain Mohamed71,68553.111.411.13.921.218.234.20.0MINMIN
196218Leeds East Richard Burgon76,20751.712.822.06.233.417.78.00.0LABReform
225189Hull West and Haltemprice Emma Hardy73,25252.19.129.34.843.57.75.60.0LABReform
239175Keighley and Ilkley Robbie Moore74,36762.131.016.06.731.411.63.30.0CONReform
257157Skipton and Ripon Julian Smith79,25167.428.415.510.432.011.02.80.0CONReform
262152Barnsley North Dan Jarvis78,26747.13.533.52.150.64.45.90.0LABReform
264150Halifax Kate Alexandra Dearden77,51651.915.417.17.234.219.36.80.0LABReform
271142Harrogate and Knaresborough Tom Gordon77,97066.819.67.633.025.610.14.20.0LIBLIB
281133Doncaster Central Sally Jameson74,67850.86.131.33.550.54.83.80.0LABReform
288126Beverley and Holderness Graham Stuart70,55963.621.917.211.337.19.03.50.0CONReform
294120Spen Valley Kim Leadbeater72,64256.516.319.18.539.612.34.20.0LABReform
296118Doncaster North Ed Miliband69,75944.49.925.27.245.78.33.60.0LABReform
297117Ossett and Denby Dale Jade Botterill72,31260.718.618.48.239.210.84.80.0LABReform
303111Normanton and Hemsworth Jon Trickett75,64548.15.729.22.950.26.35.80.0LABReform
305109Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley Yvette Cooper74,61848.24.830.92.251.94.65.50.0LABReform
307107Rotherham Sarah Champion75,92948.66.319.87.740.817.48.10.0LABReform
31599Scarborough and Whitby Alison Hume74,55859.319.217.48.339.210.75.20.0LABReform
31698Bradford South Judith Cummins71,00246.512.615.66.137.420.87.30.0LABReform
33183Rother Valley Jake Richards69,46059.921.217.48.340.99.82.50.0LABReform
33578Wetherby and Easingwold Alec Shelbrooke74,33470.342.88.55.732.38.32.40.0CONCON
33876Rawmarsh and Conisbrough John Healey69,13249.05.828.03.152.16.05.00.0LABReform
35262Barnsley South Stephanie Peacock75,85046.35.725.63.751.37.86.00.0LABReform
35460Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes Melanie Onn78,87546.410.023.65.349.57.24.40.0LABReform
36053Goole and Pocklington David Davis78,28763.537.210.26.136.97.22.40.0CONCON
36648Hull East Karl Turner70,65042.28.219.27.646.312.36.40.0LABReform
36945Scunthorpe Nicholas Dakin74,26352.618.516.16.943.810.04.70.0LABReform
38429Thirsk and Malton Kevin Hollinrake78,48463.439.57.36.237.47.12.50.0CONCON
38627Richmond and Northallerton Rishi Sunak73,88865.742.96.45.936.76.12.00.0CONCON
39123Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme Lee Pitcher70,15455.818.714.88.246.88.33.20.0LABReform
4059Bridlington and the Wolds Charlie Dewhirst72,93158.934.17.14.743.86.24.10.0CONReform
4086Brigg and Immingham Martin Vickers74,29757.235.56.84.146.05.71.80.0CONReform

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.