Yorks/Humber: Sorted Seats

Yorks/Humber Prediction

Party2024 Votes2024 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 22.8%9 23.1%10+110
LAB 40.9%43 37.0%02-241
LIB 7.1%1 7.4%00+01
Reform 16.7%0 20.6%00+00
Green 7.5%0 8.4%00+00
Other 5.0%1 3.5%10+12

This page shows all the seats in Yorks/Humber sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The seat 'Rotherham' where the LAB−CON difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Richmond and Northallerton', where the CON−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.

The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Scunthorpe (prediction: LAB), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Doncaster Central (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Yorks/Humber seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
CON
Seats
SeatMP at 2024ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Reform
%
Green
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2024
Win
Pred
Win
27497Rotherham Sarah Champion75,92948.60.441.28.035.38.34.62.2LABLAB
30494Sheffield Central Abtisam Mohamed60,77752.37.848.27.25.227.22.12.4LABLAB
31493York Central Rachael Maskell79,55754.512.752.77.314.212.70.00.4LABLAB
36488Leeds Central and Headingley Alex Sobel70,55444.87.446.38.510.924.32.20.5LABLAB
42482Barnsley North Dan Jarvis78,26747.18.746.53.933.55.90.01.4LABLAB
48476Sheffield Heeley Louise Haigh73,35952.414.051.310.44.616.41.51.7LABLAB
57467Leeds South Hilary Benn75,95341.713.750.14.76.119.82.33.3LABLAB
68456Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough Gill Furniss70,45344.913.447.65.85.916.28.03.1LABLAB
72452Barnsley South Stephanie Peacock75,85046.39.642.83.637.35.30.01.3LABLAB
90434Rawmarsh and Conisbrough John Healey69,13249.013.545.13.631.45.60.80.0LABLAB
93431Leeds North East Fabian Hamilton70,17864.416.247.65.111.514.04.61.1LABLAB
94430Hull North and Cottingham Diana Johnson75,28050.813.244.48.824.87.10.01.6LABLAB
105419Hull East Karl Turner70,65042.29.439.811.133.46.30.00.0LABLAB
107417Sheffield South East Clive Betts74,19448.218.048.410.06.110.24.13.3LABLAB
114410Sheffield Hallam Olivia Blake73,03370.712.442.330.73.79.50.50.9LABLAB
117407Normanton and Hemsworth Jon Trickett75,64548.114.043.63.832.06.50.00.0LABLAB
131393Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley Yvette Cooper74,61848.215.343.63.632.15.30.00.2LABLAB
134390Leeds West and Pudsey Rachel Reeves70,06954.917.445.44.819.710.61.60.5LABLAB
159365Leeds East Richard Burgon76,20751.717.943.34.023.29.90.01.7LABLAB
165359Doncaster North Ed Miliband69,75944.423.548.43.97.07.30.09.8LABLAB
167357Hull West and Haltemprice Emma Hardy73,25252.118.442.97.126.25.20.00.1LABLAB
168356Bradford East Imran Hussain75,16749.59.834.05.518.78.121.32.6LABLAB
180344Wakefield and Rothwell Simon Lightwood75,06754.218.339.88.324.46.71.70.8LABLAB
191333Doncaster Central Sally Jameson74,67850.821.342.23.424.45.82.00.8LABLAB
203321Leeds North West Katie White71,59269.522.442.011.615.77.30.00.9LABLAB
212311Bradford West Naz Shah77,89747.68.927.72.515.011.529.74.7LABMIN
227297Huddersfield Harpreet Uppal77,79551.616.633.74.518.327.00.00.0LABLAB
230294Leeds South West and Morley Mark Sewards71,85456.023.340.14.724.07.10.00.8LABLAB
232292Bradford South Judith Cummins71,00246.515.331.93.429.511.81.66.6LABLAB
233291Selby Keir Mather78,05563.125.842.43.822.35.70.00.0LABLAB
238286Penistone and Stocksbridge Marie Tidball70,77062.124.039.76.724.35.30.00.0LABLAB
240284Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes Melanie Onn78,87546.422.938.03.132.03.80.00.4LABLAB
245279York Outer Luke Charters76,22867.027.241.411.014.85.10.00.5LABLAB
247277Calder Valley Josh Fenton-Glynn77,36464.126.640.55.518.78.20.00.5LABLAB
251273Shipley Anna Dixon74,13065.227.541.13.018.78.30.60.9LABLAB
268256Halifax Kate Alexandra Dearden77,51651.919.931.26.223.711.26.31.4LABLAB
275249Spen Valley Kim Leadbeater72,64256.524.435.23.828.56.60.01.6LABLAB
293231Scarborough and Whitby Alison Hume74,55859.328.236.24.625.54.70.00.8LABLAB
295228Dewsbury and Batley Iqbal Hussain Mohamed71,68553.111.219.03.719.06.041.10.0MINMIN
310214Colne Valley Paul Davies72,63863.630.637.14.619.08.30.00.4LABLAB
315209Ossett and Denby Dale Jade Botterill72,31260.729.235.44.324.65.70.00.8LABLAB
330194Scunthorpe Nicholas Dakin74,26352.631.035.72.725.14.10.01.4LABLAB
354170Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme Lee Pitcher70,15455.833.034.73.224.74.30.00.2LABLAB
379145Rother Valley Jake Richards69,46059.936.434.63.021.34.70.00.0LABCON
403121Beverley and Holderness Graham Stuart70,55963.634.830.37.821.84.50.00.7CONCON
419105Skipton and Ripon Julian Smith79,25167.435.628.28.119.87.30.01.0CONCON
423101Keighley and Ilkley Robbie Moore74,36762.140.732.82.515.46.40.02.2CONCON
44876Goole and Pocklington David Davis78,28763.538.427.17.021.45.70.00.4CONCON
45074Bridlington and the Wolds Charlie Dewhirst72,93158.934.923.47.528.24.70.01.3CONCON
45569Brigg and Immingham Martin Vickers74,29757.237.725.93.627.75.10.00.0CONCON
45965Wetherby and Easingwold Alec Shelbrooke74,33470.339.726.26.717.49.40.00.6CONCON
48935Thirsk and Malton Kevin Hollinrake78,48463.439.620.211.121.66.80.00.8CONCON
50914Harrogate and Knaresborough Tom Gordon77,97066.830.54.846.313.84.00.00.6LIBLIB
5168Richmond and Northallerton Rishi Sunak73,88865.747.818.59.218.45.10.20.8CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.