Yorks/Humber: Majority Sorted Seats

Yorks/Humber Prediction

Party2019 Votes2019 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 43.1%26 22.8%020-206
LAB 38.9%28 49.5%200+2048
LIB 8.1%0 6.4%00+00
Reform 5.9%0 13.2%00+00
Green 2.3%0 6.2%00+00
Other 1.8%0 1.9%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Yorks/Humber sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Bradford West, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Harrogate and Knaresborough, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Batley and Spen (prediction: LAB), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Colne Valley (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Yorks/Humber seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
CON
Seats
SeatMP at 2019ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Reform
%
Green
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2019
Win
Pred
Win
7573Bradford West Naz Shah70,69462.67.779.51.17.13.70.00.9LABLAB
22558Leeds Central Hilary Benn90,97154.27.771.62.39.17.70.01.6LABLAB
48532Bradford East Imran Hussain73,20660.411.267.14.011.34.80.01.5LABLAB
59521Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough Gill Furniss69,33357.110.563.62.713.38.00.02.0LABLAB
60520Leeds West Rachel Reeves67,72759.512.164.73.111.46.80.02.0LABLAB
62518Sheffield Central Paul Blomfield89,84956.76.157.94.89.519.50.02.3LABLAB
63517Leeds North East Fabian Hamilton70,58071.613.965.63.88.96.70.01.1LABLAB
64516York Central Rachael Maskell74,89966.113.464.63.78.98.30.01.1LABLAB
85495Hull North Diana Johnson65,51552.212.260.15.114.26.60.01.9LABLAB
98482Leeds East Richard Burgon67,28658.015.760.62.712.96.20.01.9LABLAB
119461Huddersfield Barry Sheerman65,52563.916.259.03.311.78.20.01.6LABLAB
121459Barnsley Central Dan Jarvis65,27756.513.456.13.318.66.10.02.5LABLAB
123457Sheffield Heeley Louise Haigh66,94063.813.456.05.314.68.80.01.9LABLAB
136444Rotherham Sarah Champion61,68857.815.756.43.417.24.90.02.4LABLAB
143437Sheffield South East Clive Betts67,83261.917.157.23.914.85.20.01.7LABLAB
144436Barnsley East Stephanie Peacock69,50454.814.954.43.319.26.00.02.3LABLAB
147433Bradford South Judith Cummins69,04657.617.956.92.513.76.90.02.1LABLAB
151429Hull East Karl Turner65,74549.314.953.65.617.76.10.02.2LABLAB
157423Hull West and Hessle Emma Hardy60,19252.115.553.66.017.45.20.02.3LABLAB
158422Wentworth and Dearne John Healey74,53655.817.755.83.416.14.90.02.2LABLAB
164416Leeds North West Alex Sobel67,74172.816.253.611.410.17.90.00.9LABLAB
171409Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford Yvette Cooper84,52757.117.954.83.816.35.20.02.0LABLAB
173407Doncaster North Ed Miliband72,36256.217.454.23.617.64.80.02.4LABLAB
176404Hemsworth Jon Trickett73,72659.618.254.73.516.35.70.01.5LABLAB
183397Doncaster Central Rosie Winterton71,38958.219.254.63.215.45.70.02.0LABLAB
184396Halifax Holly Lynch71,88764.620.856.23.112.26.20.01.5LABLAB
230350Dewsbury Mark Eastwood81,25369.425.154.13.411.45.00.01.0CONLAB
241339Pudsey Stuart Andrew73,21274.125.652.64.310.55.90.01.2CONLAB
243337Don Valley Nick Fletcher75,35660.323.550.33.915.45.30.01.7CONLAB
248332Keighley Robbie Moore72,77872.325.752.03.911.75.40.01.3CONLAB
250330Colne Valley Jason McCartney84,17472.325.050.94.712.16.00.01.2CONLAB
262318Calder Valley Craig Whittaker79,28772.926.851.54.611.34.80.00.9CONLAB
267313Scunthorpe Holly Mumby-Croft61,95560.926.951.03.012.84.90.01.3CONLAB
271309Morley and Outwood Andrea Jenkyns78,80365.924.848.73.613.66.90.02.4CONLAB
277303Sheffield Hallam Olivia Blake72,76378.214.437.429.510.67.20.00.9LABLAB
286294Great Grimsby Lia Nici61,40953.926.048.24.214.65.00.02.1CONLAB
292288Rother Valley Alexander Stafford74,80465.125.046.55.116.45.40.01.7CONLAB
295285Wakefield Imran Ahmad-Khan70,19264.127.749.02.210.13.43.83.8CONLAB
304276Penistone and Stocksbridge Miriam Cates70,92569.824.044.39.016.15.10.01.4CONLAB
306274Shipley Philip Davies74,02972.928.147.94.311.37.20.01.3CONLAB
324256Scarborough and Whitby Robert Goodwill74,40466.829.946.54.613.14.60.01.3CONLAB
326254Batley and Spen Tracy Brabin79,55866.527.944.33.08.72.311.02.8LABLAB
333247York Outer Julian Sturdy74,67374.125.139.816.012.45.80.00.9CONLAB
364216Elmet and Rothwell Alec Shelbrooke80,95771.932.241.85.412.76.70.01.1CONLAB
379201Selby and Ainsty Nigel Adams78,39872.034.641.33.910.85.62.11.6CONLAB
387193Beverley and Holderness Graham Stuart79,69667.232.337.19.714.35.60.01.0CONLAB
412168Yorkshire East Greg Knight80,92365.233.235.77.616.15.80.01.6CONLAB
420160Haltemprice and Howden David Davis71,08370.034.235.88.513.76.50.01.2CONLAB
443137Cleethorpes Martin Vickers73,68962.938.037.65.213.24.90.01.2CONCON
448132Brigg and Goole Andrew Percy65,93965.837.937.05.114.05.20.00.9CONCON
450130Skipton and Ripon Julian Smith78,67374.632.431.311.815.18.10.01.3CONCON
468112Thirsk and Malton Kevin Hollinrake80,99169.935.031.810.515.26.60.01.0CONCON
49882Richmond Rishi Sunak82,56969.937.231.410.413.86.30.01.0CONCON
51763Harrogate and Knaresborough Andrew Jones77,94173.131.823.826.312.05.10.01.0CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2019. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.