Yorks/Humber: Majority Sorted Seats

Yorks/Humber Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 40.4%17 23.4%05-512
LAB 49.0%37 37.5%51+441
LIB 5.0%0 5.6%10+11
UKIP 2.6%0 5.7%00+00
Green 1.3%0 4.5%00+00
ChUK 0.0%0 4.1%00+00
Brexit 0.0%0 17.5%00+00
Minor 1.7%0 1.7%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Yorks/Humber sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Bradford West, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Richmond, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to York Outer (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Wakefield (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Yorks/Humber seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
7543Bradford West Naz Shah67,56867.410.865.
26524Bradford East Imran Hussain70,38964.812.758.
32518Sheffield Central Paul Blomfield77,56061.78.751.
49501Leeds Central Hilary Benn89,53753.211.549.
52498Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough Gill Furniss70,34459.512.448.
75475Leeds North East Fabian Hamilton70,11275.618.651.
82468York Central Rachael Maskell77,31568.718.549.
91459Leeds West Rachel Reeves67,95562.114.844.
95455Hull North Diana Johnson64,66657.514.
106444Leeds East Richard Burgon65,95062.816.744.
108442Huddersfield Barry Sheerman67,03365.418.646.
120430Barnsley Central Dan Jarvis64,20460.914.340.
123427Sheffield Heeley Louise Haigh68,04065.016.442.
126424Wentworth and Dearne John Healey74,89058.718.844.
128422Rotherham Sarah Champion63,23760.
131419Sheffield South East Clive Betts68,94563.217.942.
137413Doncaster North Ed Miliband72,37258.516.
143407Barnsley East Stephanie Peacock69,20458.915.839.
146404Batley and Spen Tracy Brabin80,15367.122.845.
147403Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford Yvette Cooper81,64160.317.540.
148402Leeds North West Alex Sobel68,15267.913.936.721.
151399Hull East Karl Turner65,95955.515.938.
154396Hull West and Hessle Emma Hardy60,18157.417.
155395Doncaster Central Rosie Winterton71,71660.019.942.
165385Bradford South Judith Cummins67,75260.620.841.
170380Hemsworth Jon Trickett71,87063.919.639.
183367Halifax Holly Lynch71,22467.823.441.
198352Dewsbury Paula Sherriff81,33869.525.942.
210339Sheffield Hallam Jared O Mara73,45577.615.329.829.
212338Don Valley Caroline Flint73,98862.224.739.
217333Scunthorpe Nic Dakin61,57865.324.
224326Wakefield Mary Creagh70,34065.825.538.
227323Great Grimsby Melanie Onn61,74357.521.634.
239311Keighley John Grogan71,42972.426.537.
240310Rother Valley Kevin Barron75,23065.822.333.
241309Colne Valley Thelma Walker84,38171.627.
254296Pudsey Stuart Andrew72,62274.329.
259291Penistone and Stocksbridge Angela Smith71,29369.824.632.
265285Calder Valley Craig Whittaker79,04573.427.335.
282268Morley and Outwood Andrea Jenkyns76,49568.429.635.
300250Scarborough and Whitby Robert Goodwill73,59368.626.730.
302248Shipley Philip Davies73,13373.031.535.
331219York Outer Julian Sturdy75,85675.731.830.
336214Elmet and Rothwell Alec Shelbrooke80,29174.
354196Cleethorpes Martin Vickers73,04765.530.826.
384166Selby and Ainsty Nigel Adams75,76574.
386164Beverley and Holderness Graham Stuart80,65769.
389161Brigg and Goole Andrew Percy66,06968.
393157Yorkshire East Greg Knight81,06566.632.
427123Haltemprice and Howden David Davis71,52071.936.826.
445105Thirsk and Malton Kevin Hollinrake78,67071.133.922.
46387Skipton and Ripon Julian Smith78,10874.436.
48070Harrogate and Knaresborough Andrew Jones77,26573.433.619.815.
50644Richmond Rishi Sunak80,92070.537.421.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.