Yorks/Humber: Majority Sorted Seats

Yorks/Humber Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 40.4%17 36.0%20+219
LAB 49.0%37 42.8%03-334
LIB 5.0%0 7.2%10+11
UKIP 2.6%0 6.0%00+00
Green 1.3%0 3.4%00+00
Minor 1.7%0 4.6%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Yorks/Humber sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Sheffield Central, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Richmond, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to York Outer (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Colne Valley (prediction: CON).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Yorks/Humber seats with predictions

Lab
Seats
Con
Seats
SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
UKIP
%
Green
%
NAT
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2017
Win
Pred
Win
25546Sheffield Central Paul Blomfield77,56061.710.164.77.15.19.90.00.03.1LABLAB
37534Leeds Central Hilary Benn89,53753.216.063.94.57.74.70.00.03.2LABLAB
45526Bradford West Naz Shah67,56867.412.958.43.75.13.10.013.92.9LABLAB
50521Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough Gill Furniss70,34459.517.261.14.89.73.90.00.03.3LABLAB
53518Bradford East Imran Hussain70,38964.815.959.24.16.42.80.07.83.8LABLAB
71500Barnsley Central Dan Jarvis64,20460.919.757.73.711.93.60.00.03.4LABLAB
76495Hull North Diana Johnson64,66657.520.757.57.37.73.90.00.02.9LABLAB
79492Leeds West Rachel Reeves67,95562.121.757.74.47.74.60.00.03.9LABLAB
92479York Central Rachael Maskell77,31568.725.758.96.93.42.20.00.02.9LABLAB
95476Wentworth and Dearne John Healey74,89058.726.858.76.03.42.20.00.02.9LABLAB
97474Doncaster North Ed Miliband72,37258.523.254.53.99.92.20.01.84.6LABLAB
100471Barnsley East Stephanie Peacock69,20458.922.553.34.111.32.20.03.03.6LABLAB
102469Leeds North East Fabian Hamilton70,11275.626.656.96.03.43.50.00.03.8LABLAB
106465Sheffield Heeley Louise Haigh68,04065.024.353.76.87.94.30.00.03.0LABLAB
110461Leeds East Richard Burgon65,95062.826.155.14.17.63.20.00.03.9LABLAB
116455Rotherham Sarah Champion63,23760.022.050.26.912.12.20.03.82.9LABLAB
122449Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford Yvette Cooper81,64160.325.653.33.79.52.20.02.92.9LABLAB
133438Hull East Karl Turner65,95955.525.552.15.710.43.50.00.02.9LABLAB
135436Huddersfield Barry Sheerman67,03365.428.554.24.93.45.40.00.03.7LABLAB
136435Sheffield South East Clive Betts68,94563.227.052.35.69.92.20.00.03.1LABLAB
148423Leeds North West Alex Sobel68,15267.915.337.937.23.43.40.00.02.8LABLAB
150421Doncaster Central Rosie Winterton71,71660.029.951.74.53.42.20.03.15.2LABLAB
152419Hull West and Hessle Emma Hardy60,18157.425.446.88.77.43.10.05.53.0LABLAB
156415Hemsworth Jon Trickett71,87063.929.449.84.39.02.20.02.52.9LABLAB
182389Batley and Spen Tracy Brabin80,15367.134.449.34.53.43.50.02.03.0LABLAB
184387Bradford South Judith Cummins67,75260.633.748.33.57.73.10.00.92.9LABLAB
188382Sheffield Hallam Jared O Mara73,45577.619.332.136.95.03.60.00.03.0LABLIB
204367Don Valley Caroline Flint73,98862.237.346.74.13.42.20.03.52.9LABLAB
205366Halifax Holly Lynch71,22467.837.246.64.56.62.20.00.02.9LABLAB
217354Scunthorpe Nic Dakin61,57865.339.045.83.66.52.20.00.02.9LABLAB
221350Rother Valley Kevin Barron75,23065.835.841.94.610.93.90.00.02.9LABLAB
224347Great Grimsby Melanie Onn61,74357.537.743.25.08.02.20.00.04.0LABLAB
229342Dewsbury Paula Sherriff81,33869.540.644.74.43.44.00.00.02.9LABLAB
233338Wakefield Mary Creagh70,34065.840.543.44.33.42.20.02.53.6LABLAB
240331Penistone and Stocksbridge Angela Smith71,29369.838.739.66.410.32.20.00.02.9LABLAB
245326Colne Valley Thelma Walker84,38171.641.741.56.43.43.60.00.03.4LABCON
250321Keighley John Grogan71,42972.441.640.34.65.93.70.00.03.9LABCON
259312Pudsey Stuart Andrew72,62274.342.940.55.53.42.20.02.13.4CONCON
263308Calder Valley Craig Whittaker79,04573.441.738.95.65.93.30.01.82.9CONCON
285286Morley and Outwood Andrea Jenkyns76,49568.446.340.54.93.42.20.00.02.9CONCON
299272Scarborough and Whitby Robert Goodwill73,59368.643.935.35.06.74.00.01.33.7CONCON
306265Shipley Philip Davies73,13373.046.936.46.43.42.20.01.92.9CONCON
328243York Outer Julian Sturdy75,85675.746.730.512.63.44.10.00.02.9CONCON
338233Elmet and Rothwell Alec Shelbrooke80,29174.249.931.66.63.43.80.01.82.9CONCON
373198Cleethorpes Martin Vickers73,04765.552.729.14.67.63.20.00.02.9CONCON
391180Selby and Ainsty Nigel Adams75,76574.054.327.96.46.42.20.00.02.9CONCON
398173Beverley and Holderness Graham Stuart80,65769.053.926.97.33.43.50.02.12.9CONCON
411160Brigg and Goole Andrew Percy66,06968.256.026.74.16.93.40.00.02.9CONCON
416155Yorkshire East Greg Knight81,06566.653.824.26.27.13.90.01.92.9CONCON
437134Haltemprice and Howden David Davis71,52071.956.524.87.13.43.60.01.82.9CONCON
471100Thirsk and Malton Kevin Hollinrake78,67071.155.619.89.26.14.10.01.33.8CONCON
47497Skipton and Ripon Julian Smith78,10874.458.222.12.33.48.60.02.62.9CONCON
49675Harrogate and Knaresborough Andrew Jones77,26573.451.013.925.73.42.20.00.03.8CONCON
53734Richmond Rishi Sunak80,92070.559.517.28.23.45.20.03.72.9CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.