Yorks/Humber: Sorted Seats

Yorks/Humber Prediction

Party2024 Votes2024 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 22.8%9 22.8%00+09
LAB 40.9%43 40.8%00+043
LIB 7.1%1 7.2%00+01
Reform 16.7%0 16.7%00+00
Green 7.5%0 7.5%00+00
Other 5.0%1 4.9%00+01

This page shows all the seats in Yorks/Humber sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The seat 'Rotherham' where the LAB−CON difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Richmond and Northallerton', where the CON−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.

The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Scunthorpe (prediction: LAB), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Leeds North West (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Yorks/Humber seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2024ElectorateTurn
30504Rotherham Sarah Champion75,92948.
35499Sheffield Central Abtisam Mohamed60,77752.37.452.
37497York Central Rachael Maskell79,55754.512.456.67.110.912.00.01.0LABLAB
41493Leeds Central and Headingley Alex Sobel70,55444.
50484Barnsley North Dan Jarvis78,26747.18.450.43.729.
55479Sheffield Heeley Louise Haigh73,35952.413.755.
63471Leeds South Hilary Benn75,95341.713.354.
76458Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough Gill Furniss70,45344.913.
86448Barnsley South Stephanie Peacock75,85046.39.346.73.433.
100434Rawmarsh and Conisbrough John Healey69,13249.013.349.03.428.
103431Leeds North East Fabian Hamilton70,17864.415.951.54.97.613.14.62.5LABLAB
105429Kingston upon Hull North and Cottingham Diana Johnson75,28050.812.948.38.620.
112422Sheffield South East Clive Betts74,19448.217.652.
114420Hull East Karl Turner70,65042.29.143.810.930.
120414Sheffield Hallam Olivia Blake73,03370.712.146.330.
123411Normanton and Hemsworth Jon Trickett75,64548.113.747.53.629.
135399Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley Yvette Cooper74,61848.
138396Leeds West and Pudsey Rachel Reeves70,06954.917.149.34.616.
160374Leeds East Richard Burgon76,20751.717.647.23.818.
163371Doncaster North Ed Miliband69,75944.423.
170364Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice Emma Hardy73,25252.
171363Bradford East Imran Hussain75,16749.59.337.95.313.46.921.36.0LABLAB
185349Wakefield and Rothwell Simon Lightwood75,06754.
194340Doncaster Central Sally Jameson74,67850.821.
206328Leeds North West Katie White71,59269.522.146.011.411.
214320Bradford West Naz Shah77,89747.68.431.
232302Huddersfield Harpreet Uppal77,79551.616.337.64.315.426.30.00.0LABLAB
234300Bradford South Judith Cummins71,00246.514.835.83.122.610.21.611.9LABLAB
235299Leeds South West and Morley Mark Sewards71,85456.
238296Selby Keir Mather78,05563.125.646.33.619.
243291Penistone and Stocksbridge Marie Tidball70,77062.123.743.66.521.
246288Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes Melanie Onn78,87546.422.641.92.928.
251283York Outer Luke Charters76,22867.027.045.310.811.
253281Calder Valley Josh Fenton-Glynn77,36464.126.344.
257277Shipley Anna Dixon74,13065.
273261Halifax Kate Alexandra Dearden77,51651.919.635.15.919.410.36.33.3LABLAB
280254Spen Valley Kim Leadbeater72,64256.524.139.13.624.
301233Scarborough and Whitby Alison Hume74,55859.328.040.24.321.
304229Dewsbury and Batley Iqbal Hussain Mohamed71,68553.
318216Colne Valley Paul Davies72,63863.630.341.04.415.
324210Ossett and Denby Dale Jade Botterill72,31260.728.939.
338196Scunthorpe Nicholas Dakin74,26352.630.639.62.520.
361173Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme Lee Pitcher70,15455.832.738.
387147Rother Valley Jake Richards69,46059.936.138.52.818.
417117Beverley and Holderness Graham Stuart70,55963.634.534.27.618.
429105Skipton and Ripon Julian Smith79,25167.435.332.17.916.
434100Keighley and Ilkley Robbie Moore74,36762.140.336.
46074Goole and Pocklington David Davis78,28763.538.231.06.818.
46173Bridlington and the Wolds Charlie Dewhirst72,93158.934.627.37.324.
46668Brigg and Immingham Martin Vickers74,29757.237.429.83.424.
46965Wetherby and Easingwold Alec Shelbrooke74,33470.339.430.16.414.
50034Thirsk and Malton Kevin Hollinrake78,48463.439.324.110.818.
52211Harrogate and Knaresborough Tom Gordon77,97066.830.
5286Richmond and Northallerton Rishi Sunak73,88865.747.522.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.