Yorks/Humber: Majority Sorted Seats

Yorks/Humber Prediction

Party	2017 Votes	2017 Seats	Pred Votes	Gains	Losses	Net Change	Pred Seats
CON	40.4%	17	30.6%	3	0	+3	20
LAB	49.0%	37	33.7%	0	5	-5	32
LIB	5.0%	0	14.0%	2	0	+2	2
Brexit	0.0%	0	16.3%	0	0	+0	0
Green	1.3%	0	3.4%	0	0	+0	0
UKIP	2.6%	0	0.9%	0	0	+0	0
Other	1.7%	0	1.2%	0	0	+0	0

This page shows all the seats in Yorks/Humber sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Bradford West, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Richmond, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Beverley and Holderness (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Rother Valley (prediction: CON).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Yorks/Humber seats with predictions

LAB Seats	CON Seats	Seat	MP at 2017	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	Brexit %	Green %	UKIP %	MIN %	OTH %	2017 Win	Pred Win
4	543	Bradford West	Naz Shah	67,568	67.4	17.3	63.2	6.6	8.8	2.7	0.8	0.0	0.6	LAB	LAB
20	527	Bradford East	Imran Hussain	70,389	64.8	19.2	55.2	9.6	11.9	2.4	0.9	0.0	0.9	LAB	LAB
34	513	Sheffield Central	Paul Blomfield	77,560	61.7	14.3	44.4	16.9	7.7	14.4	1.0	0.0	1.2	LAB	LAB
37	510	Leeds Central	Hilary Benn	89,537	53.2	18.7	47.3	11.9	14.0	5.9	1.1	0.0	1.1	LAB	LAB
41	506	Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough	Gill Furniss	70,344	59.5	20.1	47.3	9.6	17.1	3.6	1.2	0.0	1.1	LAB	LAB
68	479	Leeds West	Rachel Reeves	67,955	62.1	22.1	41.5	11.7	15.9	6.2	1.2	0.0	1.4	LAB	LAB
69	478	Hull North	Diana Johnson	64,666	57.5	21.2	40.6	14.3	16.8	4.8	1.2	0.0	1.2	LAB	LAB
70	477	York Central	Rachael Maskell	77,315	68.7	23.0	42.4	16.7	10.2	5.6	0.8	0.0	1.2	LAB	LAB
71	476	Leeds North East	Fabian Hamilton	70,112	75.6	25.3	44.5	14.9	9.0	4.2	0.7	0.0	1.3	LAB	LAB
81	466	Leeds East	Richard Burgon	65,950	62.8	24.9	42.9	9.7	17.2	3.0	1.1	0.0	1.3	LAB	LAB
89	458	Barnsley Central	Dan Jarvis	64,204	60.9	22.9	40.1	9.8	21.2	3.3	1.4	0.0	1.3	LAB	LAB
92	455	Huddersfield	Barry Sheerman	67,033	65.4	25.5	42.4	11.7	12.9	5.5	0.9	0.0	1.2	LAB	LAB
102	445	Rotherham	Sarah Champion	63,237	60.0	24.2	39.9	10.3	21.1	2.2	1.3	0.0	1.0	LAB	LAB
104	443	Sheffield Heeley	Louise Haigh	68,040	65.0	23.8	39.0	14.0	16.2	4.7	1.1	0.0	1.2	LAB	LAB
111	436	Wentworth and Dearne	John Healey	74,890	58.7	26.0	40.0	10.9	18.7	2.4	0.9	0.0	1.2	LAB	LAB
112	435	Sheffield South East	Clive Betts	68,945	63.2	26.1	40.0	10.6	18.7	2.4	1.1	0.0	1.1	LAB	LAB
113	434	Doncaster North	Ed Miliband	72,372	58.5	24.7	38.6	9.6	21.6	2.5	1.4	0.0	1.6	LAB	LAB
115	432	Barnsley East	Stephanie Peacock	69,204	58.9	24.7	38.2	9.4	22.6	2.3	1.4	0.0	1.4	LAB	LAB
121	426	Hull East	Karl Turner	65,959	55.5	24.4	37.0	10.6	22.2	3.3	1.3	0.0	1.2	LAB	LAB
124	423	Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford	Yvette Cooper	81,641	60.3	26.0	38.4	9.4	21.5	2.3	1.2	0.0	1.2	LAB	LAB
126	421	Hull West and Hessle	Emma Hardy	60,181	57.4	25.1	37.0	12.9	19.3	3.2	1.1	0.0	1.3	LAB	LAB
128	419	Batley and Spen	Tracy Brabin	80,153	67.1	29.8	41.3	9.6	14.8	2.9	0.8	0.0	0.9	LAB	LAB
133	414	Doncaster Central	Rosie Winterton	71,716	60.0	27.6	38.6	10.1	18.5	2.3	1.0	0.0	1.7	LAB	LAB
145	402	Bradford South	Judith Cummins	67,752	60.6	29.0	38.6	8.8	18.6	2.9	1.0	0.0	1.0	LAB	LAB
148	398	Leeds North West	Alex Sobel	68,152	67.9	17.8	26.6	40.9	8.6	4.5	0.7	0.0	1.0	LAB	LIB
151	396	Hemsworth	Jon Trickett	71,870	63.9	28.3	36.8	10.1	20.3	2.2	1.1	0.0	1.2	LAB	LAB
163	384	Halifax	Holly Lynch	71,224	67.8	30.8	38.1	10.3	16.4	2.4	0.9	0.0	1.1	LAB	LAB
181	366	Dewsbury	Paula Sherriff	81,338	69.5	32.8	38.0	10.7	13.7	3.1	0.7	0.0	0.9	LAB	LAB
194	353	Scunthorpe	Nic Dakin	61,578	65.3	31.8	34.6	9.3	19.6	2.5	1.0	0.0	1.2	LAB	LAB
195	352	Great Grimsby	Melanie Onn	61,743	57.5	29.9	32.6	10.2	22.0	2.5	1.3	0.0	1.5	LAB	LAB
198	349	Don Valley	Caroline Flint	73,988	62.2	32.0	34.6	10.2	19.0	2.2	0.8	0.0	1.1	LAB	LAB
198	348	Sheffield Hallam	Jared O Mara	73,455	77.6	19.8	22.3	44.7	8.2	3.3	0.7	0.0	1.0	LAB	LIB
206	341	Wakefield	Mary Creagh	70,340	65.8	33.1	34.3	10.6	17.3	2.6	0.8	0.0	1.3	LAB	LAB
211	336	Keighley	John Grogan	71,429	72.4	33.9	34.3	11.6	14.9	3.0	0.9	0.0	1.3	LAB	LAB
215	332	Colne Valley	Thelma Walker	84,381	71.6	33.1	33.0	14.7	13.8	3.4	0.8	0.0	1.2	LAB	CON
217	330	Rother Valley	Kevin Barron	75,230	65.8	31.6	31.4	10.8	21.1	2.8	1.2	0.0	1.1	LAB	CON
236	311	Pudsey	Stuart Andrew	72,622	74.3	34.9	32.2	14.9	13.3	2.7	0.7	0.0	1.3	CON	CON
244	303	Calder Valley	Craig Whittaker	79,045	73.4	33.9	30.7	14.6	15.3	3.4	0.9	0.0	1.2	CON	CON
245	302	Penistone and Stocksbridge	Angela Smith	71,293	69.8	33.3	29.7	12.9	19.8	2.1	1.1	0.0	1.1	LAB	CON
258	289	Morley and Outwood	Andrea Jenkyns	76,495	68.4	35.8	30.9	12.0	16.8	2.5	0.8	0.0	1.2	CON	CON
273	274	Shipley	Philip Davies	73,133	73.0	36.9	29.6	15.1	13.5	3.1	0.7	0.0	1.1	CON	CON
274	273	Scarborough and Whitby	Robert Goodwill	73,593	68.6	35.4	28.0	12.1	18.6	3.5	1.1	0.0	1.5	CON	CON
303	244	York Outer	Julian Sturdy	75,856	75.7	36.1	24.4	21.7	12.4	3.5	0.7	0.0	1.2	CON	CON
315	232	Elmet and Rothwell	Alec Shelbrooke	80,291	74.2	39.6	25.9	15.1	14.6	3.0	0.7	0.0	1.1	CON	CON
321	226	Cleethorpes	Martin Vickers	73,047	65.5	39.4	24.3	10.8	20.9	2.5	1.0	0.0	1.2	CON	CON
348	199	Beverley and Holderness	Graham Stuart	80,657	69.0	40.9	22.6	14.6	17.0	2.9	0.7	0.0	1.1	CON	CON
352	195	Selby and Ainsty	Nigel Adams	75,765	74.0	41.5	23.0	13.6	17.8	2.1	0.9	0.0	1.1	CON	CON
357	190	Brigg and Goole	Andrew Percy	66,069	68.2	41.8	22.7	10.5	20.5	2.5	1.0	0.0	1.2	CON	CON
363	184	Yorkshire East	Greg Knight	81,065	66.6	41.1	21.3	12.8	19.8	2.9	0.9	0.0	1.2	CON	CON
381	166	Haltemprice and Howden	David Davis	71,520	71.9	42.7	21.2	15.9	15.4	2.9	0.7	0.0	1.1	CON	CON
397	150	Harrogate and Knaresborough	Andrew Jones	77,265	73.4	37.4	14.4	30.9	13.2	2.1	0.7	0.0	1.4	CON	CON
403	144	Thirsk and Malton	Kevin Hollinrake	78,670	71.1	42.4	18.6	16.2	17.5	2.9	0.9	0.0	1.4	CON	CON
412	135	Skipton and Ripon	Julian Smith	78,108	74.4	44.2	19.8	13.2	15.3	5.6	0.8	0.0	1.1	CON	CON
458	89	Richmond	Rishi Sunak	80,920	70.5	44.9	17.3	15.7	16.2	4.0	0.7	0.0	1.2	CON	CON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.