Yorks/Humber: Sorted Seats

Yorks/Humber Prediction

Party2024 Votes2024 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 22.8%9 16.7%03-36
LAB 40.9%43 22.4%032-3211
LIB 7.1%1 8.4%00+01
Reform 16.7%0 32.7%320+3232
Green 7.5%0 14.8%30+33
Other 5.0%1 4.9%11+01

This page shows all the seats in Yorks/Humber sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Sheffield Hallam' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Bridlington and the Wolds', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.

The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Richmond and Northallerton (prediction: CON), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Doncaster North (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Yorks/Humber seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
Reform
Seats
SeatMP at 2024ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Reform
%
Green
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2024
Win
Pred
Win
1383Sheffield Hallam Olivia Blake73,03370.710.131.124.79.220.02.22.7LABLAB
10374Leeds North West Katie White71,59269.514.633.412.421.713.23.11.7LABLAB
15368Sheffield Central Abtisam Mohamed60,77752.36.719.97.29.747.44.74.3LABGreen
18366York Outer Luke Charters76,22867.021.730.513.820.810.21.31.6LABLAB
19365Leeds North East Fabian Hamilton70,17864.412.228.18.418.525.44.03.3LABLAB
30354Calder Valley Josh Fenton-Glynn77,36464.16.444.62.538.04.13.31.2LABLAB
34350Sheffield South East Clive Betts74,19448.24.843.42.037.54.92.94.5LABLAB
37347York Central Rachael Maskell79,55754.58.729.45.924.027.73.01.3LABLAB
39345Sheffield Heeley Louise Haigh73,35952.411.426.99.121.724.33.43.2LABLAB
39344Leeds Central and Headingley Alex Sobel70,55444.86.021.76.316.643.73.62.1LABGreen
44340Doncaster North Ed Miliband69,75944.47.540.61.735.96.73.64.1LABLAB
73311Shipley Anna Dixon74,13065.222.324.69.723.815.82.01.7LABLAB
75309Colne Valley Paul Davies72,63863.621.926.38.026.114.51.81.3LABLAB
88295Keighley and Ilkley Robbie Moore74,36762.127.524.75.426.611.52.31.9CONCON
95289Hull North and Cottingham Diana Johnson75,28050.84.040.42.143.65.02.52.4LABReform
98286Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough Gill Furniss70,45344.99.722.96.026.624.84.55.6LABReform
100284Penistone and Stocksbridge Marie Tidball70,77062.15.941.12.144.92.62.31.1LABReform
111272Leeds South Hilary Benn75,95341.711.822.15.426.927.03.53.4LABGreen
114270Selby Keir Mather78,05563.18.637.72.842.74.92.50.7LABReform
136247Wetherby and Easingwold Alec Shelbrooke74,33470.332.718.611.025.69.71.60.8CONCON
138246Doncaster Central Sally Jameson74,67850.85.338.61.345.74.13.31.8LABReform
148235Bradford West Naz Shah77,89747.68.416.65.224.420.524.90.0LABMIN
153230Harrogate and Knaresborough Tom Gordon77,97066.825.69.037.617.18.11.01.5LIBLIB
159225Ossett and Denby Dale Jade Botterill72,31260.720.023.97.932.612.21.81.5LABReform
166217Skipton and Ripon Julian Smith79,25167.431.919.97.729.88.41.31.0CONCON
174210Leeds West and Pudsey Rachel Reeves70,06954.913.322.87.132.919.32.91.8LABReform
180204Wakefield and Rothwell Simon Lightwood75,06754.26.434.92.845.46.12.32.0LABReform
196188Bradford East Imran Hussain75,16749.59.919.26.830.916.117.10.0LABReform
201183Hull West and Haltemprice Emma Hardy73,25252.14.837.12.049.23.42.11.3LABReform
202182Rother Valley Jake Richards69,46059.923.424.05.836.38.51.50.5LABReform
204180Leeds South West and Morley Mark Sewards71,85456.017.124.55.136.912.72.21.3LABReform
205179Huddersfield Harpreet Uppal77,79551.614.218.06.430.526.43.31.3LABReform
219165Scarborough and Whitby Alison Hume74,55859.321.921.78.135.410.31.51.2LABReform
220164Beverley and Holderness Graham Stuart70,55963.622.121.610.235.37.11.91.7CONReform
227157Spen Valley Kim Leadbeater72,64256.516.521.410.535.510.53.32.3LABReform
256128Leeds East Richard Burgon76,20751.713.121.84.838.117.32.72.1LABReform
260124Scunthorpe Nicholas Dakin74,26352.620.521.46.438.110.21.81.6LABReform
277107Barnsley North Dan Jarvis78,26747.12.935.21.253.23.72.11.6LABReform
29786Goole and Pocklington David Davis78,28763.536.615.35.534.76.01.10.7CONCON
30084Halifax Kate Alexandra Dearden77,51651.914.618.36.238.016.33.23.6LABReform
31074Dewsbury and Batley Iqbal Hussain Mohamed71,68553.114.113.95.934.314.53.713.6MINReform
31569Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme Lee Pitcher70,15455.820.420.06.041.09.42.21.0LABReform
32262Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley Yvette Cooper74,61848.24.332.81.354.54.21.91.0LABReform
32460Rawmarsh and Conisbrough John Healey69,13249.06.229.22.251.18.12.11.0LABReform
33746Richmond and Northallerton Rishi Sunak73,88865.747.18.95.631.84.41.40.9CONCON
33846Normanton and Hemsworth Jon Trickett75,64548.15.630.22.053.36.31.80.8LABReform
34143Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes Melanie Onn78,87546.411.325.33.948.97.22.51.0LABReform
34539Hull East Karl Turner70,65042.25.128.23.752.57.22.11.3LABReform
34935Bradford South Judith Cummins71,00246.511.616.94.841.816.63.35.0LABReform
35430Rotherham Sarah Champion75,92948.64.922.75.147.913.52.53.4LABReform
35826Barnsley South Stephanie Peacock75,85046.34.130.11.655.85.01.91.5LABReform
36122Thirsk and Malton Kevin Hollinrake78,48463.443.19.64.735.65.01.20.8CONCON
36519Brigg and Immingham Martin Vickers74,29757.231.713.76.340.65.71.50.5CONReform
37410Bridlington and the Wolds Charlie Dewhirst72,93158.934.09.54.644.44.61.41.6CONReform

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.