Yorks/Humber: Majority Sorted Seats

Yorks/Humber Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 40.4%17 20.9%08-89
LAB 49.0%37 31.1%35-235
LIB 5.0%0 14.0%30+33
Brexit 0.0%0 22.7%70+77
Green 1.3%0 7.7%00+00
UKIP 2.6%0 1.6%00+00
Other 1.7%0 2.0%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Yorks/Humber sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Bradford West, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Richmond, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Haltemprice and Howden (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Hull West and Hessle (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Yorks/Humber seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
3450Bradford West Naz Shah67,56867.411.866.
15438Bradford East Imran Hussain70,38964.812.857.611.
38415Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough Gill Furniss70,34459.512.447.810.417.
44409Leeds Central Hilary Benn89,53753.212.245.913.414.
46407Sheffield Central Paul Blomfield77,56061.78.641.419.17.820.
75378Leeds East Richard Burgon65,95062.816.
79374Leeds West Rachel Reeves67,95562.113.839.112.419.811.
82371Leeds North East Fabian Hamilton70,11275.618.743.615.610.
83370Rotherham Sarah Champion63,23760.014.839.611.
84369Barnsley Central Dan Jarvis64,20460.912.437.
85368Hull North Diana Johnson64,66657.513.137.715.
92361Huddersfield Barry Sheerman67,03365.418.542.012.514.
103350Sheffield South East Clive Betts68,94563.216.238.811.
104349Wentworth and Dearne John Healey74,89058.714.637.
107346Doncaster North Ed Miliband72,37258.513.635.69.729.
108345York Central Rachael Maskell77,31568.716.238.217.614.510.
110343Barnsley East Stephanie Peacock69,20458.913.335.19.730.
112341Sheffield Heeley Louise Haigh68,04065.014.836.414.321.
117336Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford Yvette Cooper81,64160.314.535.39.529.
119334Hull East Karl Turner65,95955.513.934.310.729.
121332Batley and Spen Tracy Brabin80,15367.121.541.610.
126327Doncaster Central Rosie Winterton71,71660.017.336.910.724.
127326Hull West and Hessle Emma Hardy60,18157.415.334.913.624.
134319Bradford South Judith Cummins67,75260.620.538.49.320.
144309Hemsworth Jon Trickett71,87063.916.933.810.
169284Halifax Holly Lynch71,22467.822.036.610.520.
181272Dewsbury Paula Sherriff81,33869.524.837.410.817.
185267Leeds North West Alex Sobel68,15267.910.422.643.711.
188265Don Valley Caroline Flint73,98862.220.031.710.
191262Scunthorpe Nic Dakin61,57865.321.
194258Great Grimsby Melanie Onn61,74357.518.829.710.
203250Wakefield Mary Creagh70,34065.822.832.310.524.
205247Rother Valley Kevin Barron75,23065.819.628.310.629.
214239Keighley John Grogan71,42972.425.632.611.619.
216236Sheffield Hallam Jared O Mara73,45577.612.318.446.411.
217236Colne Valley Thelma Walker84,38171.624.530.614.519.
222230Penistone and Stocksbridge Angela Smith71,29369.821.126.312.628.
236217Pudsey Stuart Andrew72,62274.325.728.914.520.
237216Calder Valley Craig Whittaker79,04573.424.227.313.823.
240213Morley and Outwood Andrea Jenkyns76,49568.424.827.611.526.
253199Scarborough and Whitby Robert Goodwill73,59368.623.824.611.
265188Shipley Philip Davies73,13373.027.926.514.520.
278175York Outer Julian Sturdy75,85675.726.620.720.620.
278174Cleethorpes Martin Vickers73,04765.526.821.09.831.
282171Elmet and Rothwell Alec Shelbrooke80,29174.228.722.513.824.
308145Beverley and Holderness Graham Stuart80,65769.028.719.213.528.
308144Brigg and Goole Andrew Percy66,06968.228.919.39.331.
311142Selby and Ainsty Nigel Adams75,76574.029.419.612.528.
316136Yorkshire East Greg Knight81,06566.628.217.911.531.
340113Haltemprice and Howden David Davis71,52071.931.117.914.625.
35994Thirsk and Malton Kevin Hollinrake78,67071.129.915.314.728.
36686Harrogate and Knaresborough Andrew Jones77,26573.427.111.930.
38172Skipton and Ripon Julian Smith78,10874.432.616.411.
41241Richmond Rishi Sunak80,92070.533.314.314.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.