| Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 22.8% | 9 | 14.7% | 0 | 6 | -6 | 3 |
| LAB | 40.9% | 43 | 24.7% | 0 | 29 | -29 | 14 |
| LIB | 7.1% | 1 | 10.5% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| Reform | 16.7% | 0 | 35.3% | 36 | 0 | +36 | 36 |
| Green | 7.5% | 0 | 10.0% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
| Other | 5.0% | 1 | 4.8% | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
This page shows all the seats in Yorks/Humber sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'York Central' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Bridlington and the Wolds', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.
The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Rother Valley (prediction: Reform), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Shipley (prediction: LAB).
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
| LAB Seats | Reform Seats | Seat | MP at 2024 | Electorate | Turn Out% | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | Reform % | Green % | MIN % | OTH % | 2024 Win | Pred Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 444 | York Central | Rachael Maskell | 79,557 | 54.5 | 2.8 | 54.7 | 2.9 | 32.7 | 4.7 | 0.0 | 2.1 | LAB | LAB |
| 21 | 434 | Sheffield Hallam | Olivia Blake | 73,033 | 70.7 | 7.9 | 33.1 | 29.1 | 14.5 | 12.3 | 0.7 | 2.4 | LAB | LAB |
| 27 | 428 | Leeds North West | Katie White | 71,592 | 69.5 | 5.6 | 51.3 | 3.8 | 34.0 | 2.8 | 0.0 | 2.4 | LAB | LAB |
| 36 | 419 | Sheffield Central | Abtisam Mohamed | 60,777 | 52.3 | 5.0 | 31.2 | 11.8 | 15.3 | 29.8 | 1.9 | 4.9 | LAB | LAB |
| 42 | 413 | Sheffield Heeley | Louise Haigh | 73,359 | 52.4 | 4.0 | 45.1 | 6.4 | 29.9 | 9.0 | 1.6 | 4.1 | LAB | LAB |
| 48 | 407 | Leeds North East | Fabian Hamilton | 70,178 | 64.4 | 7.2 | 39.8 | 8.6 | 25.8 | 12.3 | 4.1 | 2.2 | LAB | LAB |
| 61 | 394 | Sheffield South East | Clive Betts | 74,194 | 48.2 | 4.2 | 46.4 | 2.9 | 33.7 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 6.1 | LAB | LAB |
| 73 | 382 | York Outer | Luke Charters | 76,228 | 67.0 | 10.7 | 43.7 | 7.4 | 32.6 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 1.6 | LAB | LAB |
| 114 | 341 | Leeds Central and Headingley | Alex Sobel | 70,554 | 44.8 | 5.3 | 29.0 | 12.0 | 22.8 | 26.7 | 2.8 | 1.4 | LAB | LAB |
| 122 | 333 | Shipley | Anna Dixon | 74,130 | 65.2 | 6.2 | 45.2 | 2.1 | 40.6 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 2.1 | LAB | LAB |
| 130 | 325 | Leeds West and Pudsey | Rachel Reeves | 70,069 | 54.9 | 4.5 | 45.0 | 2.2 | 41.2 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | LAB | LAB |
| 132 | 323 | Calder Valley | Josh Fenton-Glynn | 77,364 | 64.1 | 5.8 | 45.1 | 2.5 | 41.8 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.9 | LAB | LAB |
| 136 | 319 | Doncaster North | Ed Miliband | 69,759 | 44.4 | 5.3 | 40.4 | 1.8 | 37.8 | 2.4 | 0.0 | 12.3 | LAB | LAB |
| 149 | 306 | Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough | Gill Furniss | 70,453 | 44.9 | 4.1 | 33.7 | 6.0 | 33.2 | 10.8 | 6.6 | 5.6 | LAB | LAB |
| 157 | 298 | Leeds South | Hilary Benn | 75,953 | 41.7 | 5.9 | 30.4 | 7.9 | 30.6 | 16.9 | 2.0 | 6.4 | LAB | Reform |
| 159 | 296 | Colne Valley | Paul Davies | 72,638 | 63.6 | 6.9 | 42.9 | 2.4 | 43.2 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.7 | LAB | Reform |
| 178 | 277 | Selby | Keir Mather | 78,055 | 63.1 | 8.3 | 40.7 | 2.8 | 43.4 | 3.2 | 0.0 | 1.5 | LAB | Reform |
| 180 | 275 | Leeds East | Richard Burgon | 76,207 | 51.7 | 4.3 | 41.5 | 2.1 | 44.5 | 3.2 | 0.0 | 4.4 | LAB | Reform |
| 183 | 272 | Hull North and Cottingham | Diana Johnson | 75,280 | 50.8 | 3.3 | 41.9 | 2.6 | 45.1 | 2.8 | 0.0 | 4.4 | LAB | Reform |
| 184 | 271 | Wakefield and Rothwell | Simon Lightwood | 75,067 | 54.2 | 3.8 | 41.9 | 2.8 | 45.2 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 1.9 | LAB | Reform |
| 194 | 261 | Leeds South West and Morley | Mark Sewards | 71,854 | 56.0 | 4.9 | 41.6 | 2.2 | 46.2 | 2.7 | 0.0 | 2.4 | LAB | Reform |
| 201 | 254 | Penistone and Stocksbridge | Marie Tidball | 70,770 | 62.1 | 5.2 | 41.8 | 2.5 | 47.3 | 2.1 | 0.0 | 1.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 216 | 239 | Hull West and Haltemprice | Emma Hardy | 73,252 | 52.1 | 3.8 | 41.5 | 2.5 | 48.4 | 2.4 | 0.0 | 1.3 | LAB | Reform |
| 225 | 230 | Keighley and Ilkley | Robbie Moore | 74,367 | 62.1 | 23.6 | 24.3 | 7.8 | 31.8 | 8.1 | 0.0 | 4.3 | CON | Reform |
| 255 | 200 | Skipton and Ripon | Julian Smith | 79,251 | 67.4 | 29.3 | 19.3 | 10.3 | 29.8 | 8.3 | 0.0 | 3.1 | CON | Reform |
| 263 | 192 | Huddersfield | Harpreet Uppal | 77,795 | 51.6 | 11.0 | 22.4 | 9.0 | 33.5 | 22.7 | 0.0 | 1.5 | LAB | Reform |
| 270 | 185 | Ossett and Denby Dale | Jade Botterill | 72,312 | 60.7 | 21.0 | 23.7 | 8.7 | 35.1 | 8.4 | 0.0 | 3.1 | LAB | Reform |
| 275 | 180 | Rotherham | Sarah Champion | 75,929 | 48.6 | 1.1 | 36.7 | 2.3 | 48.9 | 2.6 | 4.2 | 4.4 | LAB | Reform |
| 279 | 176 | Doncaster Central | Sally Jameson | 74,678 | 50.8 | 5.0 | 37.1 | 1.8 | 49.6 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 284 | 171 | Spen Valley | Kim Leadbeater | 72,642 | 56.5 | 5.0 | 37.1 | 2.0 | 50.0 | 2.4 | 0.0 | 3.4 | LAB | Reform |
| 300 | 155 | Halifax | Kate Alexandra Dearden | 77,516 | 51.9 | 8.1 | 29.2 | 4.8 | 43.5 | 6.3 | 5.4 | 2.7 | LAB | Reform |
| 301 | 154 | Scarborough and Whitby | Alison Hume | 74,558 | 59.3 | 19.6 | 23.4 | 8.5 | 37.8 | 7.7 | 0.0 | 3.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 318 | 137 | Beverley and Holderness | Graham Stuart | 70,559 | 63.6 | 22.8 | 20.3 | 11.5 | 35.9 | 6.8 | 0.0 | 2.8 | CON | Reform |
| 318 | 136 | Wetherby and Easingwold | Alec Shelbrooke | 74,334 | 70.3 | 39.2 | 13.9 | 7.9 | 29.5 | 7.2 | 0.0 | 2.4 | CON | CON |
| 319 | 136 | Bradford West | Naz Shah | 77,897 | 47.6 | 4.4 | 15.1 | 8.2 | 30.8 | 13.8 | 20.8 | 6.9 | LAB | Reform |
| 327 | 128 | Rother Valley | Jake Richards | 69,460 | 59.9 | 19.8 | 24.6 | 7.1 | 40.9 | 6.6 | 0.0 | 1.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 330 | 125 | Rawmarsh and Conisbrough | John Healey | 69,132 | 49.0 | 3.2 | 37.2 | 1.7 | 53.5 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 334 | 121 | Normanton and Hemsworth | Jon Trickett | 75,645 | 48.1 | 3.4 | 37.1 | 1.8 | 53.9 | 2.2 | 0.0 | 1.6 | LAB | Reform |
| 339 | 116 | Bradford East | Imran Hussain | 75,167 | 49.5 | 4.9 | 18.9 | 9.5 | 36.1 | 11.0 | 15.3 | 4.2 | LAB | Reform |
| 344 | 111 | Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme | Lee Pitcher | 70,154 | 55.8 | 22.6 | 21.8 | 7.4 | 39.3 | 7.1 | 0.0 | 1.8 | LAB | Reform |
| 346 | 109 | Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley | Yvette Cooper | 74,618 | 48.2 | 3.6 | 36.6 | 1.7 | 54.3 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.8 | LAB | Reform |
| 357 | 98 | Barnsley North | Dan Jarvis | 78,267 | 47.1 | 1.8 | 35.7 | 1.8 | 54.5 | 2.4 | 0.0 | 3.7 | LAB | Reform |
| 365 | 90 | Scunthorpe | Nicholas Dakin | 74,263 | 52.6 | 20.0 | 20.9 | 7.0 | 40.7 | 7.5 | 0.0 | 4.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 366 | 89 | Bradford South | Judith Cummins | 71,002 | 46.5 | 5.3 | 27.1 | 3.6 | 47.1 | 5.9 | 1.3 | 9.7 | LAB | Reform |
| 379 | 76 | Hull East | Karl Turner | 70,650 | 42.2 | 2.4 | 35.0 | 2.5 | 56.0 | 2.3 | 0.0 | 1.8 | LAB | Reform |
| 382 | 73 | Dewsbury and Batley | Iqbal Hussain Mohamed | 71,685 | 53.1 | 7.5 | 13.0 | 7.5 | 34.4 | 7.6 | 30.0 | 0.0 | MIN | Reform |
| 385 | 70 | Goole and Pocklington | David Davis | 78,287 | 63.5 | 31.3 | 14.9 | 8.5 | 36.9 | 6.2 | 0.0 | 2.2 | CON | Reform |
| 395 | 59 | Harrogate and Knaresborough | Tom Gordon | 77,970 | 66.8 | 16.4 | 6.6 | 40.7 | 29.8 | 4.5 | 0.0 | 2.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 413 | 42 | Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes | Melanie Onn | 78,875 | 46.4 | 11.8 | 24.3 | 5.4 | 49.7 | 6.3 | 0.0 | 2.5 | LAB | Reform |
| 426 | 29 | Barnsley South | Stephanie Peacock | 75,850 | 46.3 | 1.8 | 31.7 | 1.7 | 59.0 | 2.2 | 0.0 | 3.6 | LAB | Reform |
| 429 | 25 | Richmond and Northallerton | Rishi Sunak | 73,888 | 65.7 | 44.1 | 7.4 | 5.8 | 35.6 | 4.1 | 0.3 | 2.8 | CON | CON |
| 432 | 22 | Thirsk and Malton | Kevin Hollinrake | 78,484 | 63.4 | 39.7 | 8.1 | 6.3 | 38.3 | 4.8 | 0.0 | 2.8 | CON | CON |
| 438 | 17 | Brigg and Immingham | Martin Vickers | 74,297 | 57.2 | 29.0 | 12.8 | 6.1 | 44.9 | 5.6 | 0.0 | 1.6 | CON | Reform |
| 439 | 16 | Bridlington and the Wolds | Charlie Dewhirst | 72,931 | 58.9 | 27.3 | 11.8 | 7.8 | 44.1 | 5.2 | 0.0 | 3.8 | CON | Reform |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.