| Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 22.8% | 9 | 17.6% | 0 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| LAB | 40.9% | 43 | 21.6% | 0 | 34 | -34 | 9 |
| LIB | 7.1% | 1 | 9.4% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| Reform | 16.7% | 0 | 33.6% | 35 | 0 | +35 | 35 |
| Green | 7.5% | 0 | 13.9% | 2 | 0 | +2 | 2 |
| Other | 5.0% | 1 | 3.9% | 1 | 1 | +0 | 1 |
This page shows all the seats in Yorks/Humber sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Sheffield Hallam' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Bridlington and the Wolds', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.
The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley (prediction: Reform), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Calder Valley (prediction: LAB).
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
| LAB Seats | Reform Seats | Seat | MP at 2024 | Electorate | Turn Out% | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | Reform % | Green % | MIN % | OTH % | 2024 Win | Pred Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 387 | Sheffield Hallam | Olivia Blake | 73,033 | 70.7 | 10.6 | 31.4 | 25.9 | 10.3 | 19.0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 10 | 378 | Leeds North West | Katie White | 71,592 | 69.5 | 13.8 | 35.8 | 12.0 | 23.9 | 11.3 | 2.5 | 0.7 | LAB | LAB |
| 15 | 372 | Sheffield Central | Abtisam Mohamed | 60,777 | 52.3 | 7.4 | 20.0 | 9.1 | 10.8 | 46.6 | 4.5 | 1.8 | LAB | Green |
| 18 | 370 | Leeds North East | Fabian Hamilton | 70,178 | 64.4 | 12.7 | 28.7 | 9.9 | 19.7 | 24.5 | 3.2 | 1.3 | LAB | LAB |
| 19 | 369 | York Outer | Luke Charters | 76,228 | 67.0 | 21.8 | 30.8 | 14.4 | 22.1 | 9.2 | 1.1 | 0.6 | LAB | LAB |
| 42 | 346 | Sheffield South East | Clive Betts | 74,194 | 48.2 | 5.1 | 43.7 | 2.5 | 39.2 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 1.9 | LAB | LAB |
| 44 | 344 | York Central | Rachael Maskell | 79,557 | 54.5 | 9.3 | 29.2 | 6.6 | 25.1 | 26.9 | 2.4 | 0.5 | LAB | LAB |
| 47 | 340 | Leeds Central and Headingley | Alex Sobel | 70,554 | 44.8 | 6.6 | 21.0 | 7.4 | 17.5 | 43.4 | 3.3 | 0.8 | LAB | Green |
| 50 | 338 | Sheffield Heeley | Louise Haigh | 73,359 | 52.4 | 12.2 | 26.2 | 10.6 | 22.8 | 23.3 | 3.5 | 1.4 | LAB | LAB |
| 56 | 332 | Doncaster North | Ed Miliband | 69,759 | 44.4 | 8.2 | 40.0 | 2.5 | 37.2 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.7 | LAB | LAB |
| 60 | 328 | Calder Valley | Josh Fenton-Glynn | 77,364 | 64.1 | 10.3 | 38.2 | 5.2 | 35.9 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 0.5 | LAB | LAB |
| 77 | 311 | Shipley | Anna Dixon | 74,130 | 65.2 | 22.9 | 24.1 | 10.6 | 24.8 | 15.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | LAB | Reform |
| 80 | 308 | Colne Valley | Paul Davies | 72,638 | 63.6 | 22.6 | 25.5 | 8.8 | 27.1 | 13.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | LAB | Reform |
| 93 | 294 | Keighley and Ilkley | Robbie Moore | 74,367 | 62.1 | 28.7 | 23.2 | 6.5 | 27.5 | 10.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | CON | CON |
| 101 | 287 | Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough | Gill Furniss | 70,453 | 44.9 | 10.8 | 22.3 | 8.3 | 27.3 | 23.7 | 5.1 | 2.5 | LAB | Reform |
| 116 | 272 | Hull North and Cottingham | Diana Johnson | 75,280 | 50.8 | 4.8 | 38.5 | 2.8 | 44.9 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.1 | LAB | Reform |
| 119 | 269 | Leeds South | Hilary Benn | 75,953 | 41.7 | 12.8 | 21.3 | 6.9 | 27.7 | 26.1 | 3.7 | 1.5 | LAB | Reform |
| 123 | 265 | Penistone and Stocksbridge | Marie Tidball | 70,770 | 62.1 | 6.1 | 40.0 | 2.2 | 46.7 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 0.4 | LAB | Reform |
| 135 | 253 | Selby | Keir Mather | 78,055 | 63.1 | 12.7 | 32.6 | 4.8 | 40.5 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 0.3 | LAB | Reform |
| 158 | 229 | Harrogate and Knaresborough | Tom Gordon | 77,970 | 66.8 | 25.4 | 9.2 | 37.0 | 18.8 | 8.2 | 0.8 | 0.6 | LIB | LIB |
| 164 | 223 | Bradford West | Naz Shah | 77,897 | 47.6 | 9.8 | 13.7 | 5.4 | 23.8 | 19.8 | 27.4 | 0.0 | LAB | MIN |
| 167 | 221 | Doncaster Central | Sally Jameson | 74,678 | 50.8 | 7.6 | 34.8 | 2.5 | 45.4 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 0.7 | LAB | Reform |
| 178 | 210 | Ossett and Denby Dale | Jade Botterill | 72,312 | 60.7 | 21.0 | 22.8 | 8.6 | 34.2 | 11.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | LAB | Reform |
| 181 | 206 | Wetherby and Easingwold | Alec Shelbrooke | 74,334 | 70.3 | 37.6 | 15.6 | 9.6 | 27.5 | 8.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | CON | CON |
| 183 | 205 | Leeds West and Pudsey | Rachel Reeves | 70,069 | 54.9 | 14.2 | 21.9 | 8.0 | 33.8 | 18.5 | 2.9 | 0.7 | LAB | Reform |
| 202 | 186 | Wakefield and Rothwell | Simon Lightwood | 75,067 | 54.2 | 7.5 | 32.6 | 3.7 | 46.6 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | LAB | Reform |
| 205 | 183 | Bradford East | Imran Hussain | 75,167 | 49.5 | 11.3 | 16.6 | 7.0 | 30.8 | 15.4 | 18.9 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 211 | 177 | Huddersfield | Harpreet Uppal | 77,795 | 51.6 | 15.5 | 16.4 | 7.2 | 30.9 | 25.9 | 3.5 | 0.6 | LAB | Reform |
| 213 | 175 | Leeds South West and Morley | Mark Sewards | 71,854 | 56.0 | 18.8 | 22.5 | 6.2 | 37.0 | 12.7 | 2.2 | 0.5 | LAB | Reform |
| 215 | 173 | Rother Valley | Jake Richards | 69,460 | 59.9 | 24.0 | 22.5 | 6.3 | 37.7 | 7.5 | 1.7 | 0.2 | LAB | Reform |
| 216 | 171 | Skipton and Ripon | Julian Smith | 79,251 | 67.4 | 36.9 | 16.4 | 6.9 | 31.6 | 6.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | CON | CON |
| 219 | 169 | Beverley and Holderness | Graham Stuart | 70,559 | 63.6 | 22.9 | 20.9 | 11.1 | 36.3 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | CON | Reform |
| 223 | 165 | Scarborough and Whitby | Alison Hume | 74,558 | 59.3 | 22.8 | 20.8 | 8.8 | 36.3 | 9.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | LAB | Reform |
| 228 | 160 | Spen Valley | Kim Leadbeater | 72,642 | 56.5 | 17.3 | 20.7 | 11.6 | 36.4 | 9.6 | 3.3 | 1.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 251 | 137 | Hull West and Haltemprice | Emma Hardy | 73,252 | 52.1 | 8.8 | 29.9 | 4.9 | 47.3 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.6 | LAB | Reform |
| 259 | 129 | Leeds East | Richard Burgon | 76,207 | 51.7 | 13.9 | 21.2 | 5.8 | 39.2 | 16.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | LAB | Reform |
| 266 | 122 | Scunthorpe | Nicholas Dakin | 74,263 | 52.6 | 21.8 | 20.0 | 7.3 | 38.8 | 9.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | LAB | Reform |
| 282 | 106 | Dewsbury and Batley | Iqbal Hussain Mohamed | 71,685 | 53.1 | 15.4 | 14.3 | 8.8 | 34.5 | 13.5 | 3.9 | 9.6 | MIN | Reform |
| 285 | 103 | Barnsley North | Dan Jarvis | 78,267 | 47.1 | 2.8 | 34.4 | 1.3 | 54.8 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 | LAB | Reform |
| 294 | 94 | Halifax | Kate Alexandra Dearden | 77,516 | 51.9 | 16.1 | 17.4 | 7.8 | 38.2 | 15.6 | 3.3 | 1.6 | LAB | Reform |
| 314 | 74 | Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme | Lee Pitcher | 70,154 | 55.8 | 21.3 | 18.9 | 6.7 | 42.0 | 8.5 | 2.2 | 0.4 | LAB | Reform |
| 325 | 62 | Richmond and Northallerton | Rishi Sunak | 73,888 | 65.7 | 47.8 | 8.2 | 5.9 | 32.4 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | CON | CON |
| 332 | 56 | Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley | Yvette Cooper | 74,618 | 48.2 | 4.5 | 31.3 | 1.5 | 56.3 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.4 | LAB | Reform |
| 335 | 53 | Rotherham | Sarah Champion | 75,929 | 48.6 | 4.8 | 24.5 | 5.6 | 49.8 | 11.2 | 2.7 | 1.4 | LAB | Reform |
| 336 | 52 | Rawmarsh and Conisbrough | John Healey | 69,132 | 49.0 | 7.5 | 26.5 | 3.0 | 51.9 | 8.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 | LAB | Reform |
| 339 | 49 | Bradford South | Judith Cummins | 71,002 | 46.5 | 13.3 | 16.1 | 7.0 | 41.6 | 15.9 | 3.8 | 2.3 | LAB | Reform |
| 343 | 44 | Goole and Pocklington | David Davis | 78,287 | 63.5 | 42.7 | 10.9 | 4.1 | 36.6 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | CON | CON |
| 347 | 41 | Normanton and Hemsworth | Jon Trickett | 75,645 | 48.1 | 5.9 | 28.4 | 2.2 | 55.1 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.4 | LAB | Reform |
| 351 | 37 | Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes | Melanie Onn | 78,875 | 46.4 | 15.9 | 19.4 | 6.0 | 46.6 | 8.8 | 2.9 | 0.5 | LAB | Reform |
| 352 | 35 | Thirsk and Malton | Kevin Hollinrake | 78,484 | 63.4 | 43.5 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 36.5 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | CON | CON |
| 355 | 33 | Hull East | Karl Turner | 70,650 | 42.2 | 6.1 | 25.5 | 4.6 | 53.7 | 7.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | LAB | Reform |
| 364 | 24 | Barnsley South | Stephanie Peacock | 75,850 | 46.3 | 4.3 | 28.1 | 2.0 | 57.5 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | LAB | Reform |
| 374 | 14 | Brigg and Immingham | Martin Vickers | 74,297 | 57.2 | 38.4 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 42.4 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.2 | CON | Reform |
| 379 | 9 | Bridlington and the Wolds | Charlie Dewhirst | 72,931 | 58.9 | 36.4 | 8.0 | 4.3 | 45.5 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.7 | CON | Reform |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.