Yorks/Humber: Sorted Seats

Yorks/Humber Prediction

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Seats	Pred Votes	Gains	Losses	Net Change	Pred Seats
CON	22.8%	9	19.4%	0	6	-6	3
LAB	40.9%	43	25.9%	0	28	-28	15
LIB	7.1%	1	10.9%	0	0	+0	1
Reform	16.7%	0	30.6%	33	0	+33	33
Green	7.5%	0	9.8%	0	0	+0	0
Other	5.0%	1	3.4%	1	0	+1	2

This page shows all the seats in Yorks/Humber sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The seat 'Sheffield Central' where the LAB−CON difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Richmond and Northallerton', where the CON−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.

The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Richmond and Northallerton (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Sheffield Central (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Yorks/Humber seats with predictions

LAB Seats	CON Seats	Seat	MP at 2024	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	Reform %	Green %	MIN %	OTH %	2024 Win	Pred Win
30	242	Sheffield Central	Abtisam Mohamed	60,777	52.3	8.0	35.5	12.8	10.6	28.8	1.9	2.5	LAB	LAB
32	240	York Central	Rachael Maskell	79,557	54.5	11.5	38.6	12.0	20.0	16.4	0.0	1.5	LAB	LAB
41	231	Sheffield Hallam	Olivia Blake	73,033	70.7	11.3	36.2	27.6	9.3	13.4	0.8	1.4	LAB	LAB
50	222	Sheffield Heeley	Louise Haigh	73,359	52.4	12.2	35.9	13.7	16.9	17.5	1.7	2.2	LAB	LAB
51	221	Leeds Central and Headingley	Alex Sobel	70,554	44.8	8.7	32.4	12.6	17.3	25.5	2.8	0.7	LAB	LAB
62	210	Leeds North East	Fabian Hamilton	70,178	64.4	14.3	37.0	10.2	16.0	16.6	4.6	1.3	LAB	LAB
69	202	Barnsley North	Dan Jarvis	78,267	47.1	10.0	30.8	9.2	39.3	8.3	0.0	2.4	LAB	Reform
71	200	Rotherham	Sarah Champion	75,929	48.6	7.0	27.6	11.0	39.2	8.6	4.2	2.3	LAB	Reform
83	189	Leeds South	Hilary Benn	75,953	41.7	12.4	31.9	10.7	20.5	19.2	1.9	3.3	LAB	LAB
88	184	Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough	Gill Furniss	70,453	44.9	12.1	31.4	10.7	20.4	16.3	6.3	2.8	LAB	LAB
95	176	Barnsley South	Stephanie Peacock	75,850	46.3	10.4	28.1	8.9	42.4	7.8	0.0	2.3	LAB	Reform
95	176	Hull North and Cottingham	Diana Johnson	75,280	50.8	13.4	31.0	12.4	31.7	8.9	0.0	2.6	LAB	Reform
104	168	Leeds West and Pudsey	Rachel Reeves	70,069	54.9	16.4	32.2	9.2	27.5	11.2	2.5	1.0	LAB	LAB
105	167	Sheffield South East	Clive Betts	74,194	48.2	17.1	32.6	13.2	20.6	10.0	3.3	3.1	LAB	LAB
106	165	Rawmarsh and Conisbrough	John Healey	69,132	49.0	13.9	29.3	7.4	39.6	6.7	3.1	0.0	LAB	Reform
106	165	Normanton and Hemsworth	Jon Trickett	75,645	48.1	12.9	28.2	8.4	42.7	6.8	0.0	1.0	LAB	Reform
111	161	Bradford East	Imran Hussain	75,167	49.5	12.5	26.2	9.6	24.6	10.5	14.5	2.1	LAB	LAB
111	160	Leeds East	Richard Burgon	76,207	51.7	16.4	30.0	9.5	31.5	10.1	0.0	2.6	LAB	Reform
111	160	Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley	Yvette Cooper	74,618	48.2	14.9	28.6	8.2	40.3	6.6	0.0	1.4	LAB	Reform
112	159	Hull East	Karl Turner	70,650	42.2	11.8	25.3	11.9	42.3	7.3	0.0	1.3	LAB	Reform
116	156	Doncaster North	Ed Miliband	69,759	44.4	18.8	31.2	11.1	24.5	7.7	0.0	6.8	LAB	LAB
118	154	Leeds North West	Katie White	71,592	69.5	19.3	31.6	14.5	23.2	9.8	0.0	1.6	LAB	LAB
125	146	Doncaster Central	Sally Jameson	74,678	50.8	18.0	28.4	8.2	34.4	7.1	2.6	1.2	LAB	Reform
129	142	Hull West and Haltemprice	Emma Hardy	73,252	52.1	16.9	26.7	10.1	37.6	7.6	0.0	1.1	LAB	Reform
136	135	Bradford West	Naz Shah	77,897	47.6	13.1	22.4	6.5	19.6	12.5	25.9	0.0	LAB	MIN
137	134	Wakefield and Rothwell	Simon Lightwood	75,067	54.2	16.8	25.7	10.8	35.2	8.4	2.0	1.1	LAB	Reform
137	134	Huddersfield	Harpreet Uppal	77,795	51.6	16.4	25.2	9.1	26.4	21.8	0.0	1.1	LAB	Reform
139	133	York Outer	Luke Charters	76,228	67.0	22.0	30.6	13.6	25.1	7.5	0.0	1.1	LAB	LAB
139	132	Calder Valley	Josh Fenton-Glynn	77,364	64.1	20.4	28.9	9.9	30.1	9.5	0.0	1.2	LAB	Reform
147	125	Shipley	Anna Dixon	74,130	65.2	22.0	29.5	8.5	28.1	9.9	0.7	1.3	LAB	LAB
148	123	Penistone and Stocksbridge	Marie Tidball	70,770	62.1	19.5	26.9	9.9	36.0	6.8	0.0	0.9	LAB	Reform
148	123	Bradford South	Judith Cummins	71,002	46.5	15.9	23.1	10.0	34.2	10.5	1.3	5.0	LAB	Reform
154	117	Leeds South West and Morley	Mark Sewards	71,854	56.0	19.8	26.7	9.0	34.2	8.7	0.0	1.6	LAB	Reform
155	116	Selby	Keir Mather	78,055	63.1	21.3	27.8	8.2	34.9	7.3	0.0	0.5	LAB	Reform
162	109	Halifax	Kate Alexandra Dearden	77,516	51.9	18.5	23.8	9.6	30.9	10.5	5.4	1.4	LAB	Reform
167	104	Spen Valley	Kim Leadbeater	72,642	56.5	20.6	23.8	8.6	37.0	7.9	0.0	2.1	LAB	Reform
168	103	Colne Valley	Paul Davies	72,638	63.6	24.0	26.9	9.1	29.3	9.5	0.0	1.2	LAB	Reform
172	99	Dewsbury and Batley	Iqbal Hussain Mohamed	71,685	53.1	15.4	16.9	6.7	26.5	6.8	27.7	0.0	MIN	MIN
176	95	Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes	Melanie Onn	78,875	46.4	21.2	21.7	7.4	42.5	6.3	0.0	0.9	LAB	Reform
179	92	Scarborough and Whitby	Alison Hume	74,558	59.3	24.0	23.4	8.7	36.1	6.7	0.0	1.1	LAB	Reform
181	90	Ossett and Denby Dale	Jade Botterill	72,312	60.7	24.6	23.7	8.6	34.8	7.2	0.0	1.1	LAB	Reform
186	85	Rother Valley	Jake Richards	69,460	59.9	26.3	23.2	7.2	36.6	6.0	0.0	0.8	LAB	Reform
186	85	Scunthorpe	Nicholas Dakin	74,263	52.6	25.2	21.8	7.4	38.2	6.0	0.0	1.4	LAB	Reform
188	83	Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme	Lee Pitcher	70,154	55.8	25.5	21.8	7.2	39.2	5.7	0.0	0.6	LAB	Reform
195	76	Skipton and Ripon	Julian Smith	79,251	67.4	27.8	21.0	11.1	30.7	8.1	0.0	1.1	CON	Reform
198	74	Keighley and Ilkley	Robbie Moore	74,367	62.1	30.8	23.7	8.2	27.3	7.7	0.0	2.3	CON	CON
199	72	Beverley and Holderness	Graham Stuart	70,559	63.6	27.0	19.9	11.3	34.0	6.7	0.0	1.1	CON	Reform
215	56	Goole and Pocklington	David Davis	78,287	63.5	28.7	18.2	10.4	34.4	7.4	0.0	0.8	CON	Reform
217	55	Wetherby and Easingwold	Alec Shelbrooke	74,334	70.3	29.7	18.8	11.2	29.2	10.1	0.0	0.9	CON	CON
218	53	Bridlington and the Wolds	Charlie Dewhirst	72,931	58.9	26.5	15.2	10.5	40.2	6.1	0.0	1.5	CON	Reform
222	49	Brigg and Immingham	Martin Vickers	74,297	57.2	28.5	16.2	7.6	40.5	6.5	0.0	0.6	CON	Reform
227	44	Thirsk and Malton	Kevin Hollinrake	78,484	63.4	28.3	14.7	12.8	35.3	7.8	0.0	1.0	CON	Reform
233	38	Harrogate and Knaresborough	Tom Gordon	77,970	66.8	24.8	9.7	33.8	24.1	6.4	0.0	1.3	LIB	LIB
257	15	Richmond and Northallerton	Rishi Sunak	73,888	65.7	34.1	14.0	11.9	32.2	6.5	0.2	1.0	CON	CON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.