Yorks/Humber: Majority Sorted Seats

Yorks/Humber Prediction

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Seats	Pred Votes	Gains	Losses	Net Change	Pred Seats
CON	43.1%	26	41.3%	0	2	-2	24
LAB	38.9%	28	43.4%	2	0	+2	30
LIB	8.1%	0	5.2%	0	0	+0	0
Brexit	5.9%	0	3.6%	0	0	+0	0
Green	2.3%	0	3.3%	0	0	+0	0
Other	1.8%	0	3.3%	0	0	+0	0

This page shows all the seats in Yorks/Humber sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Bradford West, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Brigg and Goole, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Elmet and Rothwell (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Wakefield (prediction: CON).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Yorks/Humber seats with predictions

LAB Seats	CON Seats	Seat	MP at 2019	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	Brexit %	Green %	MIN %	OTH %	2019 Win	Pred Win
15	549	Bradford West	Naz Shah	70,694	62.6	13.8	78.8	1.9	2.1	2.4	0.0	1.0	LAB	LAB
25	539	Sheffield Central	Paul Blomfield	89,849	56.7	11.9	70.1	3.9	2.3	9.7	0.0	2.0	LAB	LAB
43	521	Bradford East	Imran Hussain	73,206	60.4	20.1	67.7	4.6	3.6	2.5	0.0	1.5	LAB	LAB
51	513	Leeds Central	Hilary Benn	90,971	54.2	20.8	65.7	2.9	3.6	5.2	0.0	1.8	LAB	LAB
65	499	Leeds North East	Fabian Hamilton	70,580	71.6	21.8	62.4	6.9	2.1	4.9	0.0	1.9	LAB	LAB
72	492	Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough	Gill Furniss	69,333	57.1	23.7	61.3	2.3	5.7	4.0	0.0	3.0	LAB	LAB
81	483	York Central	Rachael Maskell	74,899	66.1	26.0	59.3	5.1	1.8	5.2	0.0	2.7	LAB	LAB
85	479	Leeds West	Rachel Reeves	67,727	59.5	27.0	59.2	2.7	3.9	4.1	0.0	3.1	LAB	LAB
94	470	Hull North	Diana Johnson	65,515	52.2	25.8	56.3	3.7	8.2	4.0	0.0	2.1	LAB	LAB
96	468	Leeds North West	Alex Sobel	67,741	72.8	25.0	55.3	11.7	1.6	4.3	0.0	2.1	LAB	LAB
104	460	Barnsley Central	Dan Jarvis	65,277	56.5	19.5	47.5	2.0	22.2	4.1	0.0	4.8	LAB	LAB
106	458	Sheffield Heeley	Louise Haigh	66,940	63.8	28.5	55.4	4.2	4.9	5.4	0.0	1.6	LAB	LAB
130	434	Leeds East	Richard Burgon	67,286	58.0	33.8	54.3	2.8	4.5	3.2	0.0	1.4	LAB	LAB
138	426	Barnsley East	Stephanie Peacock	69,504	54.8	25.4	45.1	2.1	20.9	4.1	0.0	2.4	LAB	LAB
145	419	Hull West and Hessle	Emma Hardy	60,192	52.1	31.7	50.1	3.4	10.5	1.8	0.0	2.4	LAB	LAB
150	414	Rotherham	Sarah Champion	61,688	57.8	30.7	48.6	3.6	10.1	1.6	0.0	5.4	LAB	LAB
153	411	Sheffield Hallam	Olivia Blake	72,763	78.2	24.0	41.6	25.7	1.6	4.4	0.0	2.7	LAB	LAB
155	409	Sheffield South East	Clive Betts	67,832	61.9	34.0	51.4	3.1	6.2	1.2	0.0	4.0	LAB	LAB
158	406	Huddersfield	Barry Sheerman	65,525	63.9	35.3	52.7	3.5	2.3	5.0	0.0	1.2	LAB	LAB
168	396	Doncaster North	Ed Miliband	72,362	56.2	31.0	46.2	2.2	12.1	1.7	0.0	6.8	LAB	LAB
173	391	Doncaster Central	Rosie Winterton	71,389	58.2	32.7	46.7	2.6	9.6	3.8	0.0	4.5	LAB	LAB
174	390	Wentworth and Dearne	John Healey	74,536	55.8	33.2	47.1	2.5	9.9	1.5	0.0	5.8	LAB	LAB
179	385	Hull East	Karl Turner	65,745	49.3	33.5	46.5	3.2	10.4	4.0	0.0	2.3	LAB	LAB
181	383	Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford	Yvette Cooper	84,527	57.1	33.4	45.2	4.0	9.8	1.6	0.0	6.0	LAB	LAB
182	382	Bradford South	Judith Cummins	69,046	57.6	38.5	50.3	2.3	4.2	3.4	0.0	1.3	LAB	LAB
184	380	Batley and Spen	Tracy Brabin	79,558	66.5	34.2	45.9	2.9	1.9	2.0	12.2	1.0	LAB	LAB
185	379	Halifax	Holly Lynch	71,887	64.6	38.9	50.3	3.0	3.5	2.9	0.0	1.3	LAB	LAB
188	376	Hemsworth	Jon Trickett	73,726	59.6	33.0	43.3	2.4	7.9	3.4	5.6	4.4	LAB	LAB
220	344	Dewsbury	Mark Eastwood	81,253	69.4	44.6	46.8	2.6	1.9	2.6	0.0	1.4	CON	LAB
226	338	Keighley	Robbie Moore	72,778	72.3	46.3	46.7	3.0	0.9	0.6	0.0	2.4	CON	LAB
230	334	Don Valley	Nick Fletcher	75,356	60.3	41.3	41.1	2.6	8.1	3.2	0.0	3.7	CON	CON
238	326	Wakefield	Imran Ahmad-Khan	70,192	64.1	45.4	43.6	2.4	3.5	0.8	0.0	4.1	CON	CON
241	323	Pudsey	Stuart Andrew	73,212	74.1	47.0	44.9	3.5	0.0	2.2	0.0	2.4	CON	CON
248	316	Colne Valley	Jason McCartney	84,174	72.3	46.6	43.4	3.8	1.2	2.5	0.0	2.5	CON	CON
258	306	Rother Valley	Alexander Stafford	74,804	65.1	43.3	38.1	3.2	7.5	3.8	0.0	4.0	CON	CON
264	300	Calder Valley	Craig Whittaker	79,287	72.9	50.0	44.3	3.1	0.0	0.5	0.0	2.0	CON	CON
268	296	Penistone and Stocksbridge	Miriam Cates	70,925	69.8	46.0	39.4	6.3	5.1	1.3	0.0	1.9	CON	CON
270	294	Shipley	Philip Davies	74,029	72.9	49.0	41.9	3.6	0.0	3.0	0.0	2.5	CON	CON
286	278	York Outer	Julian Sturdy	74,673	74.1	47.5	37.1	11.1	0.0	1.3	0.0	3.1	CON	CON
293	271	Scunthorpe	Holly Mumby-Croft	61,955	60.9	52.0	39.9	1.4	3.2	2.5	0.0	1.0	CON	CON
312	252	Scarborough and Whitby	Robert Goodwill	74,404	66.8	53.7	37.6	3.7	0.0	0.6	0.0	4.4	CON	CON
313	251	Great Grimsby	Lia Nici	61,409	53.9	53.0	36.6	2.0	4.2	2.4	0.0	1.7	CON	CON
320	244	Morley and Outwood	Andrea Jenkyns	78,803	65.9	54.8	37.3	2.7	0.0	2.6	0.0	2.6	CON	CON
350	214	Elmet and Rothwell	Alec Shelbrooke	80,957	71.9	56.1	31.5	5.4	0.0	3.8	0.0	3.1	CON	CON
407	157	Selby and Ainsty	Nigel Adams	78,398	72.0	58.4	27.9	5.3	0.0	4.0	0.0	4.4	CON	CON
431	133	Beverley and Holderness	Graham Stuart	79,696	67.2	60.3	27.3	5.4	0.0	3.3	0.0	3.8	CON	CON
442	122	Skipton and Ripon	Julian Smith	78,673	74.6	57.6	24.0	9.1	0.0	5.8	0.0	3.5	CON	CON
462	102	Harrogate and Knaresborough	Andrew Jones	77,941	73.1	50.8	15.9	27.9	0.0	1.4	0.0	4.1	CON	CON
464	100	Haltemprice and Howden	David Davis	71,083	70.0	60.5	25.4	6.4	0.0	4.4	0.0	3.3	CON	CON
501	63	Yorkshire East	Greg Knight	80,923	65.2	62.6	24.4	4.9	0.0	3.9	0.0	4.2	CON	CON
507	57	Thirsk and Malton	Kevin Hollinrake	80,991	69.9	61.1	22.7	7.3	0.0	4.9	0.0	3.9	CON	CON
527	37	Richmond	Rishi Sunak	82,569	69.9	61.7	20.7	7.4	0.0	5.3	0.0	4.9	CON	CON
534	30	Cleethorpes	Martin Vickers	73,689	62.9	67.1	25.3	3.4	0.0	3.3	0.0	0.8	CON	CON
553	11	Brigg and Goole	Andrew Percy	65,939	65.8	69.4	23.2	3.1	0.0	3.5	0.0	0.8	CON	CON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2019. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.