Yorks/Humber: Majority Sorted Seats

Yorks/Humber Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 40.4%17 36.6%02-215
LAB 49.0%37 46.9%21+138
LIB 5.0%0 7.2%10+11
UKIP 2.6%0 4.2%00+00
Green 1.3%0 2.1%00+00
Minor 1.7%0 2.9%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Yorks/Humber sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Sheffield Central, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Richmond, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to York Outer (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Penistone and Stocksbridge (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Yorks/Humber seats with predictions

Lab
Seats
Con
Seats
SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
UKIP
%
Green
%
NAT
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2017
Win
Pred
Win
25543Sheffield Central Paul Blomfield77,56061.710.568.96.93.58.70.00.01.6LABLAB
37531Leeds Central Hilary Benn89,53753.216.668.14.56.03.40.00.01.5LABLAB
45523Bradford West Naz Shah67,56867.413.462.63.53.41.90.013.91.3LABLAB
50518Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough Gill Furniss70,34459.517.765.34.88.02.70.00.01.6LABLAB
53515Bradford East Imran Hussain70,38964.816.563.34.14.61.50.07.82.1LABLAB
71497Barnsley Central Dan Jarvis64,20460.920.361.93.610.22.40.00.01.7LABLAB
77491Hull North Diana Johnson64,66657.521.361.77.35.92.60.00.01.2LABLAB
79489Leeds West Rachel Reeves67,95562.122.361.94.45.93.30.00.02.2LABLAB
91477York Central Rachael Maskell77,31568.726.363.16.91.60.90.00.01.2LABLAB
94474Wentworth and Dearne John Healey74,89058.727.462.96.01.60.90.00.01.2LABLAB
96472Doncaster North Ed Miliband72,37258.523.758.73.98.10.90.01.82.9LABLAB
100468Barnsley East Stephanie Peacock69,20458.923.157.54.19.60.90.03.01.9LABLAB
102466Leeds North East Fabian Hamilton70,11275.627.161.05.91.62.20.00.02.1LABLAB
106462Sheffield Heeley Louise Haigh68,04065.024.857.96.86.13.00.00.01.3LABLAB
110458Leeds East Richard Burgon65,95062.826.759.34.05.81.90.00.02.2LABLAB
116452Rotherham Sarah Champion63,23760.022.554.46.910.40.90.03.81.2LABLAB
122446Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford Yvette Cooper81,64160.326.157.43.67.80.90.02.91.2LABLAB
133435Hull East Karl Turner65,95955.526.056.25.78.72.20.00.01.2LABLAB
135433Huddersfield Barry Sheerman67,03365.429.158.34.91.64.10.00.02.0LABLAB
136432Sheffield South East Clive Betts68,94563.227.656.55.58.10.90.00.01.4LABLAB
148420Leeds North West Alex Sobel68,15267.915.842.137.21.62.10.00.01.2LABLAB
150418Doncaster Central Rosie Winterton71,71660.030.555.94.51.60.90.03.13.5LABLAB
152416Hull West and Hessle Emma Hardy60,18157.426.051.08.65.71.90.05.51.4LABLAB
156412Hemsworth Jon Trickett71,87063.930.054.04.27.30.90.02.51.2LABLAB
182386Batley and Spen Tracy Brabin80,15367.135.053.44.51.62.20.02.01.3LABLAB
184384Bradford South Judith Cummins67,75260.634.352.43.55.91.80.00.91.2LABLAB
188379Sheffield Hallam Jared O Mara73,45577.619.936.336.93.32.30.00.01.3LABLIB
204364Don Valley Caroline Flint73,98862.237.850.94.11.60.90.03.51.2LABLAB
205363Halifax Holly Lynch71,22467.837.850.84.44.90.90.00.01.2LABLAB
218350Scunthorpe Nic Dakin61,57865.339.650.03.64.70.90.00.01.2LABLAB
221347Rother Valley Kevin Barron75,23065.836.446.14.69.12.70.00.01.2LABLAB
225343Great Grimsby Melanie Onn61,74357.538.347.34.96.30.90.00.02.3LABLAB
228340Dewsbury Paula Sherriff81,33869.541.248.94.41.62.70.00.01.2LABLAB
232336Wakefield Mary Creagh70,34065.841.147.64.31.60.90.02.52.0LABLAB
239329Penistone and Stocksbridge Angela Smith71,29369.839.343.86.38.60.90.00.01.2LABLAB
244324Colne Valley Thelma Walker84,38171.642.345.66.41.62.40.00.01.7LABLAB
250318Keighley John Grogan71,42972.442.244.54.64.12.40.00.02.2LABLAB
258310Pudsey Stuart Andrew72,62274.343.544.75.51.60.90.02.11.7CONLAB
262306Calder Valley Craig Whittaker79,04573.442.343.05.64.22.00.01.81.2CONLAB
284284Morley and Outwood Andrea Jenkyns76,49568.446.844.64.81.60.90.00.01.2CONCON
298270Scarborough and Whitby Robert Goodwill73,59368.644.539.54.95.02.70.01.32.1CONCON
306262Shipley Philip Davies73,13373.047.540.56.41.60.90.01.91.2CONCON
326242York Outer Julian Sturdy75,85675.747.234.612.51.62.80.00.01.2CONCON
337231Elmet and Rothwell Alec Shelbrooke80,29174.250.535.86.61.62.60.01.81.2CONCON
369199Cleethorpes Martin Vickers73,04765.553.233.34.55.91.90.00.01.2CONCON
389179Selby and Ainsty Nigel Adams75,76574.054.832.16.34.70.90.00.01.2CONCON
397171Beverley and Holderness Graham Stuart80,65769.054.531.17.31.62.30.02.11.2CONCON
410158Brigg and Goole Andrew Percy66,06968.256.530.94.15.22.10.00.01.2CONCON
414154Yorkshire East Greg Knight81,06566.654.428.46.25.32.60.01.91.2CONCON
435133Haltemprice and Howden David Davis71,52071.957.129.07.11.62.30.01.81.2CONCON
468100Thirsk and Malton Kevin Hollinrake78,67071.156.124.09.14.42.90.01.32.1CONCON
47197Skipton and Ripon Julian Smith78,10874.458.826.22.21.67.30.02.61.2CONCON
49177Harrogate and Knaresborough Andrew Jones77,26573.451.618.025.71.60.90.00.02.1CONCON
53335Richmond Rishi Sunak80,92070.560.121.48.11.63.90.03.71.2CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.