Yorks/Humber: Sorted Seats

Yorks/Humber Prediction

Party2024 Votes2024 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 22.8%9 16.4%04-45
LAB 40.9%43 22.6%031-3112
LIB 7.1%1 8.9%00+01
Reform 16.7%0 28.9%270+2727
Green 7.5%0 18.8%80+88
Other 5.0%1 4.4%00+01

This page shows all the seats in Yorks/Humber sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Sheffield Hallam' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Bridlington and the Wolds', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.

The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Bridlington and the Wolds (prediction: Reform), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Sheffield Hallam (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Yorks/Humber seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
Reform
Seats
SeatMP at 2024ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Reform
%
Green
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2024
Win
Pred
Win
2325Sheffield Hallam Olivia Blake73,03370.79.829.221.910.126.60.91.5LABLAB
6321Leeds North East Fabian Hamilton70,17864.412.131.96.314.328.65.41.3LABLAB
10316Sheffield Central Abtisam Mohamed60,77752.34.022.34.49.456.61.51.8LABGreen
17310Leeds North West Katie White71,59269.517.630.312.119.118.50.02.5LABLAB
23303Leeds Central and Headingley Alex Sobel70,55444.85.524.05.614.545.83.70.8LABGreen
23303Sheffield Heeley Louise Haigh73,35952.49.227.88.618.531.52.12.3LABGreen
26301Doncaster North Ed Miliband69,75944.410.338.65.029.911.50.04.7LABLAB
27300York Central Rachael Maskell79,55754.59.030.76.822.029.10.02.5LABLAB
48279Calder Valley Josh Fenton-Glynn77,36464.119.128.38.623.417.70.02.9LABLAB
49277Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough Gill Furniss70,45344.97.925.55.421.330.96.52.5LABGreen
53273Leeds South Hilary Benn75,95341.79.325.65.622.132.32.13.1LABGreen
53273Bradford West Naz Shah77,89747.67.719.75.516.332.70.018.0LABGreen
57270Sheffield South East Clive Betts74,19448.212.926.29.123.322.13.52.9LABLAB
61266York Outer Luke Charters76,22867.021.623.315.820.816.90.01.5LABLAB
65262Selby Keir Mather78,05563.111.138.43.836.57.60.02.6LABLAB
66261Shipley Anna Dixon74,13065.217.925.88.624.020.91.11.7LABLAB
68259Leeds West and Pudsey Rachel Reeves70,06954.912.027.06.225.523.04.91.6LABLAB
72255Doncaster Central Sally Jameson74,67850.85.841.51.740.34.94.11.7LABLAB
83243Bradford East Imran Hussain75,16749.59.121.47.722.226.50.013.1LABGreen
106221Spen Valley Kim Leadbeater72,64256.516.526.87.630.114.30.04.6LABReform
111216Colne Valley Paul Davies72,63863.621.222.39.326.119.40.01.8LABReform
111215Huddersfield Harpreet Uppal77,79551.611.220.86.424.734.00.02.9LABGreen
116211Wakefield and Rothwell Simon Lightwood75,06754.210.130.45.835.012.64.22.0LABReform
134192Dewsbury and Batley Iqbal Hussain Mohamed71,68553.110.115.05.921.523.424.10.0MINMIN
136191Hull West and Haltemprice Emma Hardy73,25252.110.730.86.037.411.80.03.4LABReform
138189Leeds South West and Morley Mark Sewards71,85456.014.827.16.433.815.20.02.7LABReform
140187Penistone and Stocksbridge Marie Tidball70,77062.119.923.39.630.314.40.02.5LABReform
149178Rawmarsh and Conisbrough John Healey69,13249.03.837.51.445.04.77.70.0LABReform
152175Barnsley North Dan Jarvis78,26747.12.939.61.647.44.30.04.2LABReform
153174Hull North and Cottingham Diana Johnson75,28050.810.924.08.731.920.90.03.7LABReform
157170Leeds East Richard Burgon76,20751.711.724.85.832.821.30.03.6LABReform
162165Keighley and Ilkley Robbie Moore74,36762.124.121.36.330.115.50.02.7CONReform
173154Ossett and Denby Dale Jade Botterill72,31260.718.822.68.632.615.00.02.4LABReform
174152Wetherby and Easingwold Alec Shelbrooke74,33470.332.717.48.727.511.30.02.4CONCON
175152Halifax Kate Alexandra Dearden77,51651.912.820.16.630.320.87.61.7LABReform
183144Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley Yvette Cooper74,61848.23.937.91.549.04.10.03.5LABReform
184143Normanton and Hemsworth Jon Trickett75,64548.13.638.11.549.34.10.03.4LABReform
191135Harrogate and Knaresborough Tom Gordon77,97066.821.48.236.619.912.30.01.7LIBLIB
202125Scarborough and Whitby Alison Hume74,55859.318.821.79.534.513.30.02.3LABReform
210117Barnsley South Stephanie Peacock75,85046.33.036.71.550.64.00.04.2LABReform
219108Bradford South Judith Cummins71,00246.59.719.65.634.221.81.77.5LABReform
221106Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme Lee Pitcher70,15455.824.521.35.836.19.80.02.6LABReform
225102Scunthorpe Nicholas Dakin74,26352.619.620.47.635.713.90.02.9LABReform
227100Rother Valley Jake Richards69,46059.924.320.56.636.010.50.02.1LABReform
23196Skipton and Ripon Julian Smith79,25167.428.216.99.332.610.90.02.1CONReform
24186Rotherham Sarah Champion75,92948.64.622.47.038.918.65.82.7LABReform
24285Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes Melanie Onn78,87546.415.822.36.638.912.80.03.6LABReform
26561Beverley and Holderness Graham Stuart70,55963.642.711.34.732.46.30.02.6CONCON
27057Hull East Karl Turner70,65042.29.019.48.941.917.10.03.7LABReform
27848Richmond and Northallerton Rishi Sunak73,88865.745.38.65.332.35.60.52.4CONCON
28047Brigg and Immingham Martin Vickers74,29757.233.913.15.337.96.90.02.9CONReform
28937Goole and Pocklington David Davis78,28763.541.39.74.736.16.20.02.0CONCON
29828Thirsk and Malton Kevin Hollinrake78,48463.440.88.35.737.15.90.02.2CONCON
30819Bridlington and the Wolds Charlie Dewhirst72,93158.939.08.64.040.45.00.03.0CONReform

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.