Yorks/Humber: Sorted Seats

Yorks/Humber Prediction

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Seats	Pred Votes	Gains	Losses	Net Change	Pred Seats
CON	22.8%	9	15.5%	0	9	-9	0
LAB	40.9%	43	24.7%	0	33	-33	10
LIB	7.1%	1	11.7%	0	0	+0	1
Reform	16.7%	0	36.3%	42	0	+42	42
Green	7.5%	0	9.4%	0	0	+0	0
Other	5.0%	1	2.5%	1	1	+0	1

This page shows all the seats in Yorks/Humber sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The seat 'Sheffield Central' where the LAB−CON difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Richmond and Northallerton', where the CON−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.

The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Richmond and Northallerton (prediction: Reform), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Sheffield Central (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Yorks/Humber seats with predictions

LAB Seats	CON Seats	Seat	MP at 2024	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	Reform %	Green %	MIN %	OTH %	2024 Win	Pred Win
32	127	Sheffield Central	Abtisam Mohamed	60,777	52.3	4.2	34.1	13.4	17.2	28.2	1.9	1.1	LAB	LAB
33	126	York Central	Rachael Maskell	79,557	54.5	7.6	37.4	12.8	25.6	16.0	0.0	0.6	LAB	LAB
44	115	Sheffield Hallam	Olivia Blake	73,033	70.7	7.4	34.9	28.4	14.9	13.0	0.8	0.6	LAB	LAB
52	107	Leeds Central and Headingley	Alex Sobel	70,554	44.8	4.8	31.3	13.4	22.2	25.1	2.8	0.3	LAB	LAB
55	104	Sheffield Heeley	Louise Haigh	73,359	52.4	8.3	34.5	14.3	23.3	17.0	1.7	0.9	LAB	LAB
62	97	Leeds North East	Fabian Hamilton	70,178	64.4	10.4	35.8	11.0	21.4	16.2	4.6	0.5	LAB	LAB
74	84	Barnsley North	Dan Jarvis	78,267	47.1	6.1	29.4	9.9	45.9	7.8	0.0	1.0	LAB	Reform
79	79	Rotherham	Sarah Champion	75,929	48.6	3.7	26.3	11.6	45.2	8.1	4.2	1.0	LAB	Reform
88	71	Leeds South	Hilary Benn	75,953	41.7	8.5	30.4	11.2	28.0	18.5	1.9	1.4	LAB	LAB
89	70	Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough	Gill Furniss	70,453	44.9	8.2	29.9	11.3	27.5	15.7	6.3	1.2	LAB	LAB
96	62	Barnsley South	Stephanie Peacock	75,850	46.3	6.5	26.7	9.5	49.0	7.3	0.0	1.0	LAB	Reform
96	62	Hull North and Cottingham	Diana Johnson	75,280	50.8	9.5	29.6	13.1	38.4	8.4	0.0	1.1	LAB	Reform
97	61	Leeds West and Pudsey	Rachel Reeves	70,069	54.9	12.5	31.1	10.0	32.6	10.9	2.5	0.4	LAB	Reform
98	60	Rawmarsh and Conisbrough	John Healey	69,132	49.0	10.0	28.3	8.4	43.8	6.4	3.1	0.0	LAB	Reform
100	58	Normanton and Hemsworth	Jon Trickett	75,645	48.1	9.0	27.0	9.2	48.0	6.5	0.0	0.4	LAB	Reform
102	57	Sheffield South East	Clive Betts	74,194	48.2	13.2	31.1	13.7	28.0	9.4	3.3	1.3	LAB	LAB
103	55	Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley	Yvette Cooper	74,618	48.2	11.0	27.3	9.0	45.9	6.2	0.0	0.6	LAB	Reform
104	54	Bradford East	Imran Hussain	75,167	49.5	8.6	24.8	10.3	30.9	10.0	14.5	0.9	LAB	Reform
104	54	Hull East	Karl Turner	70,650	42.2	7.9	24.0	12.7	47.8	6.9	0.0	0.6	LAB	Reform
104	54	Leeds East	Richard Burgon	76,207	51.7	12.5	28.6	10.1	38.2	9.5	0.0	1.1	LAB	Reform
107	52	Leeds North West	Katie White	71,592	69.5	15.4	30.3	15.2	29.0	9.4	0.0	0.7	LAB	LAB
107	51	Doncaster North	Ed Miliband	69,759	44.4	14.9	29.4	11.4	33.6	6.9	0.0	3.9	LAB	Reform
112	46	Doncaster Central	Sally Jameson	74,678	50.8	14.1	27.2	9.0	39.8	6.7	2.6	0.5	LAB	Reform
116	42	Hull West and Haltemprice	Emma Hardy	73,252	52.1	13.0	25.5	10.9	42.9	7.2	0.0	0.5	LAB	Reform
119	39	Bradford West	Naz Shah	77,897	47.6	9.2	21.4	7.4	23.8	12.3	25.9	0.0	LAB	MIN
119	39	Wakefield and Rothwell	Simon Lightwood	75,067	54.2	12.9	24.5	11.6	40.5	8.0	2.0	0.5	LAB	Reform
119	39	Huddersfield	Harpreet Uppal	77,795	51.6	12.5	24.0	9.9	31.7	21.4	0.0	0.5	LAB	Reform
119	39	York Outer	Luke Charters	76,228	67.0	18.1	29.4	14.4	30.4	7.1	0.0	0.5	LAB	Reform
119	39	Calder Valley	Josh Fenton-Glynn	77,364	64.1	16.5	27.7	10.7	35.4	9.1	0.0	0.5	LAB	Reform
121	37	Shipley	Anna Dixon	74,130	65.2	18.1	28.3	9.3	33.6	9.5	0.7	0.6	LAB	Reform
121	37	Penistone and Stocksbridge	Marie Tidball	70,770	62.1	15.6	25.8	10.7	41.0	6.5	0.0	0.4	LAB	Reform
122	36	Leeds South West and Morley	Mark Sewards	71,854	56.0	15.9	25.5	9.7	40.0	8.2	0.0	0.7	LAB	Reform
124	34	Selby	Keir Mather	78,055	63.1	17.4	26.7	9.1	39.6	7.0	0.0	0.2	LAB	Reform
124	34	Bradford South	Judith Cummins	71,002	46.5	12.0	21.3	10.3	43.4	9.6	1.3	2.1	LAB	Reform
128	30	Halifax	Kate Alexandra Dearden	77,516	51.9	14.6	22.5	10.4	36.5	10.0	5.4	0.6	LAB	Reform
130	28	Spen Valley	Kim Leadbeater	72,642	56.5	16.7	22.5	9.3	43.2	7.4	0.0	0.9	LAB	Reform
130	28	Colne Valley	Paul Davies	72,638	63.6	20.1	25.7	9.9	34.7	9.2	0.0	0.5	LAB	Reform
130	28	Dewsbury and Batley	Iqbal Hussain Mohamed	71,685	53.1	11.5	15.9	7.7	30.7	6.6	27.7	0.0	MIN	Reform
133	25	Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes	Melanie Onn	78,875	46.4	17.3	20.6	8.2	47.6	5.9	0.0	0.4	LAB	Reform
134	24	Scarborough and Whitby	Alison Hume	74,558	59.3	20.1	22.2	9.5	41.4	6.4	0.0	0.5	LAB	Reform
135	23	Ossett and Denby Dale	Jade Botterill	72,312	60.7	20.7	22.5	9.4	40.1	6.9	0.0	0.5	LAB	Reform
136	22	Rother Valley	Jake Richards	69,460	59.9	22.4	22.0	8.0	41.5	5.7	0.0	0.3	LAB	Reform
138	20	Scunthorpe	Nicholas Dakin	74,263	52.6	21.3	20.6	8.2	43.8	5.6	0.0	0.6	LAB	Reform
138	20	Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme	Lee Pitcher	70,154	55.8	21.6	20.7	8.1	43.9	5.4	0.0	0.2	LAB	Reform
138	20	Skipton and Ripon	Julian Smith	79,251	67.4	23.9	19.9	11.9	36.0	7.8	0.0	0.5	CON	Reform
138	20	Beverley and Holderness	Graham Stuart	70,559	63.6	23.1	18.7	12.1	39.3	6.3	0.0	0.5	CON	Reform
138	20	Keighley and Ilkley	Robbie Moore	74,367	62.1	26.9	22.4	8.8	33.8	7.2	0.0	1.0	CON	Reform
141	17	Goole and Pocklington	David Davis	78,287	63.5	24.8	17.1	11.3	39.4	7.0	0.0	0.4	CON	Reform
141	17	Wetherby and Easingwold	Alec Shelbrooke	74,334	70.3	25.8	17.6	12.1	34.3	9.8	0.0	0.4	CON	Reform
141	17	Bridlington and the Wolds	Charlie Dewhirst	72,931	58.9	22.6	14.0	11.3	45.8	5.7	0.0	0.6	CON	Reform
142	16	Brigg and Immingham	Martin Vickers	74,297	57.2	24.6	15.1	8.4	45.4	6.2	0.0	0.3	CON	Reform
142	16	Thirsk and Malton	Kevin Hollinrake	78,484	63.4	24.4	13.5	13.7	40.5	7.4	0.0	0.4	CON	Reform
144	14	Harrogate and Knaresborough	Tom Gordon	77,970	66.8	20.9	8.5	34.5	29.6	6.0	0.0	0.5	LIB	LIB
151	7	Richmond and Northallerton	Rishi Sunak	73,888	65.7	30.2	12.9	12.7	37.5	6.1	0.2	0.4	CON	Reform

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.