Yorks/Humber: Sorted Seats

Yorks/Humber Prediction

Party2024 Votes2024 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 22.8%9 16.6%04-45
LAB 40.9%43 22.7%031-3112
LIB 7.1%1 9.1%00+01
Reform 16.7%0 29.1%270+2727
Green 7.5%0 17.3%80+88
Other 5.0%1 5.1%00+01

This page shows all the seats in Yorks/Humber sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Sheffield Hallam' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Bridlington and the Wolds', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.

The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Bridlington and the Wolds (prediction: Reform), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Sheffield Hallam (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Yorks/Humber seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
Reform
Seats
SeatMP at 2024ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Reform
%
Green
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2024
Win
Pred
Win
2327Sheffield Hallam Olivia Blake73,03370.710.129.422.110.525.10.91.9LABLAB
7322Leeds North East Fabian Hamilton70,17864.412.432.16.614.827.15.41.7LABLAB
14314Sheffield Central Abtisam Mohamed60,77752.34.122.54.69.855.11.52.3LABGreen
22307Leeds North West Katie White71,59269.517.830.412.319.317.00.03.2LABLAB
24305Doncaster North Ed Miliband69,75944.47.942.93.432.37.50.06.0LABLAB
24304Sheffield Heeley Louise Haigh73,35952.49.527.98.818.730.02.13.0LABGreen
25303Leeds Central and Headingley Alex Sobel70,55444.85.724.25.815.244.33.71.1LABGreen
28301York Central Rachael Maskell79,55754.59.230.87.022.227.60.03.2LABLAB
53276Calder Valley Josh Fenton-Glynn77,36464.119.428.38.823.616.20.03.7LABLAB
54274Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough Gill Furniss70,45344.98.125.65.621.529.46.53.2LABGreen
58270Bradford West Naz Shah77,89747.68.019.85.616.231.30.019.2LABGreen
58270Leeds South Hilary Benn75,95341.79.525.75.822.230.82.13.9LABGreen
62267Sheffield South East Clive Betts74,19448.213.226.39.323.420.63.53.7LABLAB
68261York Outer Luke Charters76,22867.021.923.416.121.315.40.01.9LABLAB
71258Shipley Anna Dixon74,13065.218.125.98.824.419.41.12.2LABLAB
74255Leeds West and Pudsey Rachel Reeves70,06954.912.227.16.425.921.54.92.0LABLAB
75254Selby Keir Mather78,05563.111.737.44.136.37.10.03.4LABLAB
82247Doncaster Central Sally Jameson74,67850.85.841.11.740.94.34.12.2LABLAB
88240Bradford East Imran Hussain75,16749.59.421.47.722.125.00.014.3LABGreen
103226Wakefield and Rothwell Simon Lightwood75,06754.27.635.64.038.08.04.22.6LABReform
116213Spen Valley Kim Leadbeater72,64256.517.425.98.029.513.50.05.8LABReform
119209Huddersfield Harpreet Uppal77,79551.611.520.96.524.832.60.03.7LABGreen
120209Colne Valley Paul Davies72,63863.621.422.49.526.517.90.02.3LABReform
124205Hull West and Haltemprice Emma Hardy73,25252.18.035.84.140.27.50.04.4LABReform
136193Leeds South West and Morley Mark Sewards71,85456.013.729.25.935.212.60.03.4LABReform
145183Dewsbury and Batley Iqbal Hussain Mohamed71,68553.110.415.26.222.221.924.10.0MINMIN
147182Penistone and Stocksbridge Marie Tidball70,77062.120.223.49.830.512.90.03.2LABReform
155174Leeds East Richard Burgon76,20751.711.825.25.932.919.50.04.7LABReform
157172Hull North and Cottingham Diana Johnson75,28050.811.224.08.831.819.40.04.8LABReform
164165Barnsley North Dan Jarvis78,26747.13.038.71.647.43.80.05.4LABReform
165164Rawmarsh and Conisbrough John Healey69,13249.03.737.31.346.13.97.70.0LABReform
166163Keighley and Ilkley Robbie Moore74,36762.124.421.46.430.314.00.03.5CONReform
179150Ossett and Denby Dale Jade Botterill72,31260.719.022.78.832.913.50.03.1LABReform
183146Halifax Kate Alexandra Dearden77,51651.913.120.26.830.719.47.62.2LABReform
184144Wetherby and Easingwold Alec Shelbrooke74,33470.333.317.28.727.89.90.03.1CONCON
198130Harrogate and Knaresborough Tom Gordon77,97066.821.68.436.820.310.80.02.1LIBLIB
199130Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley Yvette Cooper74,61848.24.037.11.649.13.70.04.6LABReform
200129Normanton and Hemsworth Jon Trickett75,64548.13.737.31.649.43.70.04.4LABReform
208121Scarborough and Whitby Alison Hume74,55859.319.021.89.734.711.80.03.0LABReform
219110Bradford South Judith Cummins71,00246.510.019.65.734.020.31.78.7LABReform
224105Barnsley South Stephanie Peacock75,85046.33.135.81.650.63.50.05.4LABReform
226103Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme Lee Pitcher70,15455.824.821.45.936.38.30.03.3LABReform
23099Scunthorpe Nicholas Dakin74,26352.619.920.57.835.812.40.03.7LABReform
23297Rother Valley Jake Richards69,46059.924.520.66.836.29.00.02.7LABReform
23594Rotherham Sarah Champion75,92948.64.623.76.839.416.25.83.5LABReform
24188Skipton and Ripon Julian Smith79,25167.428.916.79.332.99.40.02.8CONReform
24485Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes Melanie Onn78,87546.416.521.76.938.411.80.04.7LABReform
27058Beverley and Holderness Graham Stuart70,55963.643.111.14.632.65.30.03.4CONCON
27356Hull East Karl Turner70,65042.29.319.59.041.815.60.04.7LABReform
27949Richmond and Northallerton Rishi Sunak73,88865.745.28.75.432.54.70.53.0CONCON
28247Brigg and Immingham Martin Vickers74,29757.234.512.85.238.05.70.03.8CONReform
29038Goole and Pocklington David Davis78,28763.541.29.74.836.45.20.02.6CONCON
29929Thirsk and Malton Kevin Hollinrake78,48463.440.78.45.737.35.00.02.8CONCON
30821Bridlington and the Wolds Charlie Dewhirst72,93158.938.98.74.040.34.20.03.8CONReform

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.