Yorks/Humber: Majority Sorted Seats

Yorks/Humber Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 40.4%17 30.6%30+320
LAB 49.0%37 33.7%05-532
LIB 5.0%0 14.0%20+22
Brexit 0.0%0 16.3%00+00
Green 1.3%0 3.4%00+00
UKIP 2.6%0 0.9%00+00
Other 1.7%0 1.2%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Yorks/Humber sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Bradford West, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Richmond, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Beverley and Holderness (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Rother Valley (prediction: CON).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Yorks/Humber seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
CON
Seats
SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Brexit
%
Green
%
UKIP
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2017
Win
Pred
Win
4543Bradford West Naz Shah67,56867.417.363.26.68.82.70.80.00.6LABLAB
20527Bradford East Imran Hussain70,38964.819.255.29.611.92.40.90.00.9LABLAB
34513Sheffield Central Paul Blomfield77,56061.714.344.416.97.714.41.00.01.2LABLAB
37510Leeds Central Hilary Benn89,53753.218.747.311.914.05.91.10.01.1LABLAB
41506Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough Gill Furniss70,34459.520.147.39.617.13.61.20.01.1LABLAB
68479Leeds West Rachel Reeves67,95562.122.141.511.715.96.21.20.01.4LABLAB
69478Hull North Diana Johnson64,66657.521.240.614.316.84.81.20.01.2LABLAB
70477York Central Rachael Maskell77,31568.723.042.416.710.25.60.80.01.2LABLAB
71476Leeds North East Fabian Hamilton70,11275.625.344.514.99.04.20.70.01.3LABLAB
81466Leeds East Richard Burgon65,95062.824.942.99.717.23.01.10.01.3LABLAB
89458Barnsley Central Dan Jarvis64,20460.922.940.19.821.23.31.40.01.3LABLAB
92455Huddersfield Barry Sheerman67,03365.425.542.411.712.95.50.90.01.2LABLAB
102445Rotherham Sarah Champion63,23760.024.239.910.321.12.21.30.01.0LABLAB
104443Sheffield Heeley Louise Haigh68,04065.023.839.014.016.24.71.10.01.2LABLAB
111436Wentworth and Dearne John Healey74,89058.726.040.010.918.72.40.90.01.2LABLAB
112435Sheffield South East Clive Betts68,94563.226.140.010.618.72.41.10.01.1LABLAB
113434Doncaster North Ed Miliband72,37258.524.738.69.621.62.51.40.01.6LABLAB
115432Barnsley East Stephanie Peacock69,20458.924.738.29.422.62.31.40.01.4LABLAB
121426Hull East Karl Turner65,95955.524.437.010.622.23.31.30.01.2LABLAB
124423Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford Yvette Cooper81,64160.326.038.49.421.52.31.20.01.2LABLAB
126421Hull West and Hessle Emma Hardy60,18157.425.137.012.919.33.21.10.01.3LABLAB
128419Batley and Spen Tracy Brabin80,15367.129.841.39.614.82.90.80.00.9LABLAB
133414Doncaster Central Rosie Winterton71,71660.027.638.610.118.52.31.00.01.7LABLAB
145402Bradford South Judith Cummins67,75260.629.038.68.818.62.91.00.01.0LABLAB
148398Leeds North West Alex Sobel68,15267.917.826.640.98.64.50.70.01.0LABLIB
151396Hemsworth Jon Trickett71,87063.928.336.810.120.32.21.10.01.2LABLAB
163384Halifax Holly Lynch71,22467.830.838.110.316.42.40.90.01.1LABLAB
181366Dewsbury Paula Sherriff81,33869.532.838.010.713.73.10.70.00.9LABLAB
194353Scunthorpe Nic Dakin61,57865.331.834.69.319.62.51.00.01.2LABLAB
195352Great Grimsby Melanie Onn61,74357.529.932.610.222.02.51.30.01.5LABLAB
198349Don Valley Caroline Flint73,98862.232.034.610.219.02.20.80.01.1LABLAB
198348Sheffield Hallam Jared O Mara73,45577.619.822.344.78.23.30.70.01.0LABLIB
206341Wakefield Mary Creagh70,34065.833.134.310.617.32.60.80.01.3LABLAB
211336Keighley John Grogan71,42972.433.934.311.614.93.00.90.01.3LABLAB
215332Colne Valley Thelma Walker84,38171.633.133.014.713.83.40.80.01.2LABCON
217330Rother Valley Kevin Barron75,23065.831.631.410.821.12.81.20.01.1LABCON
236311Pudsey Stuart Andrew72,62274.334.932.214.913.32.70.70.01.3CONCON
244303Calder Valley Craig Whittaker79,04573.433.930.714.615.33.40.90.01.2CONCON
245302Penistone and Stocksbridge Angela Smith71,29369.833.329.712.919.82.11.10.01.1LABCON
258289Morley and Outwood Andrea Jenkyns76,49568.435.830.912.016.82.50.80.01.2CONCON
273274Shipley Philip Davies73,13373.036.929.615.113.53.10.70.01.1CONCON
274273Scarborough and Whitby Robert Goodwill73,59368.635.428.012.118.63.51.10.01.5CONCON
303244York Outer Julian Sturdy75,85675.736.124.421.712.43.50.70.01.2CONCON
315232Elmet and Rothwell Alec Shelbrooke80,29174.239.625.915.114.63.00.70.01.1CONCON
321226Cleethorpes Martin Vickers73,04765.539.424.310.820.92.51.00.01.2CONCON
348199Beverley and Holderness Graham Stuart80,65769.040.922.614.617.02.90.70.01.1CONCON
352195Selby and Ainsty Nigel Adams75,76574.041.523.013.617.82.10.90.01.1CONCON
357190Brigg and Goole Andrew Percy66,06968.241.822.710.520.52.51.00.01.2CONCON
363184Yorkshire East Greg Knight81,06566.641.121.312.819.82.90.90.01.2CONCON
381166Haltemprice and Howden David Davis71,52071.942.721.215.915.42.90.70.01.1CONCON
397150Harrogate and Knaresborough Andrew Jones77,26573.437.414.430.913.22.10.70.01.4CONCON
403144Thirsk and Malton Kevin Hollinrake78,67071.142.418.616.217.52.90.90.01.4CONCON
412135Skipton and Ripon Julian Smith78,10874.444.219.813.215.35.60.80.01.1CONCON
45889Richmond Rishi Sunak80,92070.544.917.315.716.24.00.70.01.2CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.