Yorks/Humber: Majority Sorted Seats

Yorks/Humber Prediction

Party	2017 Votes	2017 Seats	Pred Votes	Gains	Losses	Net Change	Pred Seats
CON	40.4%	17	40.5%	5	0	+5	22
LAB	49.0%	37	39.6%	0	6	-6	31
LIB	5.0%	0	9.0%	1	0	+1	1
Brexit	0.0%	0	6.2%	0	0	+0	0
Green	1.3%	0	3.0%	0	0	+0	0
UKIP	2.6%	0	0.0%	0	0	+0	0
Other	1.7%	0	1.7%	0	0	+0	0

This page shows all the seats in Yorks/Humber sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Bradford West, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Richmond, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Scarborough and Whitby (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Bradford South (prediction: CON).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Yorks/Humber seats with predictions

LAB Seats	CON Seats	Seat	MP at 2017	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	Brexit %	Green %	NAT %	UKIP %	MIN %	OTH %	2017 Win	Pred Win
12	557	Bradford West	Naz Shah	67,568	67.4	17.0	65.9	2.9	7.3	4.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.6	LAB	LAB
28	541	Sheffield Central	Paul Blomfield	77,560	61.7	14.7	55.4	9.7	4.5	14.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.7	LAB	LAB
30	539	Bradford East	Imran Hussain	70,389	64.8	21.0	61.3	5.6	8.7	3.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	LAB	LAB
44	525	Leeds Central	Hilary Benn	89,537	53.2	22.3	54.9	6.8	8.3	5.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.9	LAB	LAB
48	521	Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough	Gill Furniss	70,344	59.5	24.7	54.7	6.1	10.6	3.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	LAB	LAB
73	496	York Central	Rachael Maskell	77,315	68.7	26.4	51.5	10.4	5.7	4.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.9	LAB	LAB
84	485	Leeds West	Rachel Reeves	67,955	62.1	26.5	49.5	7.1	9.4	5.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.1	LAB	LAB
85	484	Leeds North East	Fabian Hamilton	70,112	75.6	28.1	51.1	9.7	5.2	3.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.9	LAB	LAB
86	483	Hull North	Diana Johnson	64,666	57.5	26.6	49.5	9.3	10.0	4.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	LAB	LAB
95	474	Huddersfield	Barry Sheerman	67,033	65.4	29.5	50.2	7.3	7.6	5.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	LAB	LAB
103	466	Leeds East	Richard Burgon	65,950	62.8	30.3	49.7	6.3	10.4	3.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	LAB	LAB
114	455	Sheffield Heeley	Louise Haigh	68,040	65.0	29.0	47.5	9.4	9.8	4.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	LAB	LAB
118	451	Barnsley Central	Dan Jarvis	64,204	60.9	28.7	46.8	5.9	12.7	3.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.4	LAB	LAB
121	448	Rotherham	Sarah Champion	63,237	60.0	29.6	47.1	6.9	13.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.7	LAB	LAB
125	444	Leeds North West	Alex Sobel	68,152	67.9	20.6	37.7	32.1	5.3	4.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	LAB	LAB
129	440	Sheffield South East	Clive Betts	68,945	63.2	31.7	47.8	7.2	11.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.2	LAB	LAB
134	435	Doncaster North	Ed Miliband	72,372	58.5	30.7	46.2	7.0	13.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.7	LAB	LAB
141	428	Wentworth and Dearne	John Healey	74,890	58.7	32.4	47.0	7.7	10.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.2	LAB	LAB
148	421	Hull West and Hessle	Emma Hardy	60,181	57.4	31.1	44.1	8.9	12.3	3.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	LAB	LAB
149	420	Batley and Spen	Tracy Brabin	80,153	67.1	34.1	47.0	5.1	8.8	3.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.9	LAB	LAB
150	419	Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford	Yvette Cooper	81,641	60.3	32.2	45.1	6.8	13.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.6	LAB	LAB
151	418	Hull East	Karl Turner	65,959	55.5	31.6	44.5	7.2	13.3	3.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	LAB	LAB
153	416	Barnsley East	Stephanie Peacock	69,204	58.9	31.4	44.1	6.8	14.9	2.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	LAB	LAB
165	404	Doncaster Central	Rosie Winterton	71,716	60.0	33.2	44.0	6.0	11.3	2.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.7	LAB	LAB
165	403	Sheffield Hallam	Jared O Mara	73,455	77.6	19.7	30.6	39.7	4.6	3.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.1	LAB	LIB
181	388	Hemsworth	Jon Trickett	71,870	63.9	33.8	42.9	5.9	12.1	2.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.5	LAB	LAB
183	386	Halifax	Holly Lynch	71,224	67.8	36.5	45.1	6.2	9.6	2.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	LAB	LAB
194	375	Dewsbury	Paula Sherriff	81,338	69.5	37.0	44.6	5.4	7.9	3.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.7	LAB	LAB
209	360	Colne Valley	Thelma Walker	84,381	71.6	38.9	44.4	6.8	6.0	2.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.7	LAB	LAB
219	350	Scunthorpe	Nic Dakin	61,578	65.3	40.1	43.5	6.7	7.7	1.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	LAB	LAB
225	344	Wakefield	Mary Creagh	70,340	65.8	40.2	42.2	7.1	8.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.8	LAB	LAB
231	338	Rother Valley	Kevin Barron	75,230	65.8	38.0	38.2	6.4	11.9	3.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.3	LAB	LAB
234	335	Keighley	John Grogan	71,429	72.4	43.3	43.1	6.5	5.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.5	LAB	CON
236	333	Penistone and Stocksbridge	Angela Smith	71,293	69.8	40.1	38.8	9.7	11.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	LAB	CON
243	326	Bradford South	Judith Cummins	67,752	60.6	41.5	39.6	4.8	10.9	3.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	LAB	CON
247	322	Don Valley	Caroline Flint	73,988	62.2	35.8	33.3	11.0	13.5	3.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.7	LAB	CON
249	320	Great Grimsby	Melanie Onn	61,743	57.5	41.1	38.5	4.8	11.0	2.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.1	LAB	CON
255	314	Shipley	Philip Davies	73,133	73.0	46.7	40.4	9.3	0.0	2.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.5	CON	CON
270	299	Pudsey	Stuart Andrew	72,622	74.3	50.4	36.9	9.3	0.0	2.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.3	CON	CON
275	294	Calder Valley	Craig Whittaker	79,045	73.4	51.8	36.9	10.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.3	CON	CON
290	279	York Outer	Julian Sturdy	75,856	75.7	50.7	32.8	15.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.5	CON	CON
310	259	Morley and Outwood	Andrea Jenkyns	76,495	68.4	55.7	34.3	7.4	0.0	1.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.9	CON	CON
329	240	Scarborough and Whitby	Robert Goodwill	73,593	68.6	56.9	33.1	8.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.2	CON	CON
342	227	Elmet and Rothwell	Alec Shelbrooke	80,291	74.2	56.5	30.5	9.4	0.0	2.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.2	CON	CON
415	154	Harrogate and Knaresborough	Andrew Jones	77,265	73.4	53.7	22.1	22.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.5	CON	CON
443	126	Beverley and Holderness	Graham Stuart	80,657	69.0	60.4	27.0	9.1	0.0	2.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.2	CON	CON
459	110	Haltemprice and Howden	David Davis	71,520	71.9	60.3	26.1	9.9	0.0	2.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.2	CON	CON
464	105	Selby and Ainsty	Nigel Adams	75,765	74.0	61.8	27.4	8.3	0.0	1.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.9	CON	CON
481	88	Cleethorpes	Martin Vickers	73,047	65.5	63.6	27.6	7.0	0.0	1.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	CON	CON
491	78	Skipton and Ripon	Julian Smith	78,108	74.4	61.1	24.6	8.5	0.0	4.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.2	CON	CON
522	47	Thirsk and Malton	Kevin Hollinrake	78,670	71.1	62.4	23.6	10.2	0.0	2.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.3	CON	CON
524	45	Yorkshire East	Greg Knight	81,065	66.6	63.7	24.9	7.9	0.0	2.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.1	CON	CON
533	36	Brigg and Goole	Andrew Percy	66,069	68.2	65.3	26.1	6.8	0.0	1.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	CON	CON
543	26	Richmond	Rishi Sunak	80,920	70.5	63.0	22.2	9.9	0.0	3.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.4	CON	CON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.