Yorks/Humber: Majority Sorted Seats

Yorks/Humber Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 40.4%17 36.6%02-215
LAB 49.0%37 46.9%21+138
LIB 5.0%0 7.2%10+11
UKIP 2.6%0 4.2%00+00
Green 1.3%0 2.1%00+00
Minor 1.7%0 2.9%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Yorks/Humber sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Sheffield Central, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Richmond, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to York Outer (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Penistone and Stocksbridge (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Yorks/Humber seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
25543Sheffield Central Paul Blomfield77,56061.710.568.
37531Leeds Central Hilary Benn89,53753.216.668.
45523Bradford West Naz Shah67,56867.413.462.
50518Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough Gill Furniss70,34459.517.765.
53515Bradford East Imran Hussain70,38964.816.563.
71497Barnsley Central Dan Jarvis64,20460.920.361.93.610.
77491Hull North Diana Johnson64,66657.521.361.
79489Leeds West Rachel Reeves67,95562.122.361.
91477York Central Rachael Maskell77,31568.726.363.
94474Wentworth and Dearne John Healey74,89058.727.462.
96472Doncaster North Ed Miliband72,37258.523.758.
100468Barnsley East Stephanie Peacock69,20458.923.
102466Leeds North East Fabian Hamilton70,11275.627.
106462Sheffield Heeley Louise Haigh68,04065.024.857.
110458Leeds East Richard Burgon65,95062.826.759.
116452Rotherham Sarah Champion63,23760.022.554.46.910.
122446Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford Yvette Cooper81,64160.326.
133435Hull East Karl Turner65,95955.526.
135433Huddersfield Barry Sheerman67,03365.429.
136432Sheffield South East Clive Betts68,94563.227.656.
148420Leeds North West Alex Sobel68,15267.915.842.
150418Doncaster Central Rosie Winterton71,71660.030.555.
152416Hull West and Hessle Emma Hardy60,18157.426.
156412Hemsworth Jon Trickett71,87063.930.
182386Batley and Spen Tracy Brabin80,15367.
184384Bradford South Judith Cummins67,75260.634.352.
188379Sheffield Hallam Jared O Mara73,45577.619.936.336.
204364Don Valley Caroline Flint73,98862.237.850.
205363Halifax Holly Lynch71,22467.837.850.
218350Scunthorpe Nic Dakin61,57865.339.650.
221347Rother Valley Kevin Barron75,23065.836.446.
225343Great Grimsby Melanie Onn61,74357.538.347.
228340Dewsbury Paula Sherriff81,33869.541.
232336Wakefield Mary Creagh70,34065.841.
239329Penistone and Stocksbridge Angela Smith71,29369.839.343.
244324Colne Valley Thelma Walker84,38171.642.345.
250318Keighley John Grogan71,42972.442.
258310Pudsey Stuart Andrew72,62274.343.544.
262306Calder Valley Craig Whittaker79,04573.442.343.
284284Morley and Outwood Andrea Jenkyns76,49568.446.844.
298270Scarborough and Whitby Robert Goodwill73,59368.644.539.
306262Shipley Philip Davies73,13373.047.540.
326242York Outer Julian Sturdy75,85675.747.234.612.
337231Elmet and Rothwell Alec Shelbrooke80,29174.250.535.
369199Cleethorpes Martin Vickers73,04765.553.
389179Selby and Ainsty Nigel Adams75,76574.054.832.
397171Beverley and Holderness Graham Stuart80,65769.054.531.
410158Brigg and Goole Andrew Percy66,06968.256.530.
414154Yorkshire East Greg Knight81,06566.654.428.
435133Haltemprice and Howden David Davis71,52071.957.
468100Thirsk and Malton Kevin Hollinrake78,67071.
47197Skipton and Ripon Julian Smith78,10874.458.826.
49177Harrogate and Knaresborough Andrew Jones77,26573.451.618.
53335Richmond Rishi Sunak80,92070.560.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.