| Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 22.8% | 9 | 15.4% | 0 | 6 | -6 | 3 |
| LAB | 40.9% | 43 | 20.2% | 0 | 36 | -36 | 7 |
| LIB | 7.1% | 1 | 10.2% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| Reform | 16.7% | 0 | 34.0% | 36 | 0 | +36 | 36 |
| Green | 7.5% | 0 | 13.3% | 4 | 0 | +4 | 4 |
| Other | 5.0% | 1 | 6.8% | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
This page shows all the seats in Yorks/Humber sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Sheffield Hallam' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Brigg and Immingham', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.
The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Scarborough and Whitby (prediction: Reform), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Bradford West (prediction: MIN).
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
| LAB Seats | Reform Seats | Seat | MP at 2024 | Electorate | Turn Out% | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | Reform % | Green % | MIN % | OTH % | 2024 Win | Pred Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 419 | Sheffield Hallam | Olivia Blake | 73,033 | 70.7 | 10.3 | 31.2 | 23.8 | 10.5 | 17.1 | 7.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 35 | 398 | Leeds North West | Katie White | 71,592 | 69.5 | 5.9 | 47.1 | 4.9 | 33.1 | 4.0 | 5.1 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 37 | 395 | Sheffield Central | Abtisam Mohamed | 60,777 | 52.3 | 6.9 | 23.9 | 8.0 | 10.4 | 37.0 | 13.9 | 0.0 | LAB | Green |
| 46 | 387 | Leeds North East | Fabian Hamilton | 70,178 | 64.4 | 13.5 | 28.6 | 8.8 | 16.5 | 22.8 | 9.8 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 65 | 368 | York Central | Rachael Maskell | 79,557 | 54.5 | 9.3 | 31.2 | 8.7 | 23.2 | 17.7 | 9.9 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 65 | 367 | Leeds Central and Headingley | Alex Sobel | 70,554 | 44.8 | 6.6 | 25.9 | 8.8 | 18.0 | 28.4 | 12.4 | 0.0 | LAB | Green |
| 70 | 363 | Sheffield Heeley | Louise Haigh | 73,359 | 52.4 | 10.6 | 26.5 | 10.5 | 20.0 | 22.2 | 10.1 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 78 | 355 | Sheffield South East | Clive Betts | 74,194 | 48.2 | 9.1 | 35.5 | 6.5 | 30.3 | 10.7 | 8.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 98 | 334 | Leeds South | Hilary Benn | 75,953 | 41.7 | 10.6 | 23.4 | 7.8 | 21.5 | 25.0 | 11.7 | 0.0 | LAB | Green |
| 101 | 332 | York Outer | Luke Charters | 76,228 | 67.0 | 17.0 | 29.5 | 11.8 | 28.5 | 8.3 | 4.8 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 105 | 327 | Bradford West | Naz Shah | 77,897 | 47.6 | 8.1 | 15.4 | 3.6 | 14.9 | 21.0 | 37.0 | 0.0 | LAB | MIN |
| 109 | 324 | Calder Valley | Josh Fenton-Glynn | 77,364 | 64.1 | 6.7 | 40.4 | 3.4 | 40.5 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 124 | 309 | Hull North and Cottingham | Diana Johnson | 75,280 | 50.8 | 4.0 | 40.2 | 2.5 | 42.0 | 4.1 | 7.3 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 130 | 303 | Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough | Gill Furniss | 70,453 | 44.9 | 10.6 | 22.1 | 9.0 | 24.4 | 23.3 | 10.6 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 138 | 294 | Bradford East | Imran Hussain | 75,167 | 49.5 | 8.7 | 19.3 | 5.4 | 23.5 | 17.3 | 25.8 | 0.0 | LAB | MIN |
| 145 | 288 | Leeds South West and Morley | Mark Sewards | 71,854 | 56.0 | 5.1 | 38.8 | 2.3 | 43.9 | 3.5 | 6.4 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 152 | 280 | Huddersfield | Harpreet Uppal | 77,795 | 51.6 | 12.2 | 18.2 | 6.5 | 24.9 | 29.6 | 8.7 | 0.0 | LAB | Green |
| 157 | 276 | Penistone and Stocksbridge | Marie Tidball | 70,770 | 62.1 | 5.2 | 39.1 | 2.7 | 46.7 | 2.5 | 3.7 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 159 | 274 | Selby | Keir Mather | 78,055 | 63.1 | 5.6 | 38.7 | 2.4 | 46.3 | 2.7 | 4.3 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 162 | 271 | Leeds West and Pudsey | Rachel Reeves | 70,069 | 54.9 | 12.8 | 23.5 | 7.5 | 31.5 | 16.5 | 8.2 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 165 | 268 | Wakefield and Rothwell | Simon Lightwood | 75,067 | 54.2 | 6.1 | 35.1 | 3.5 | 43.4 | 5.2 | 6.6 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 174 | 259 | Shipley | Anna Dixon | 74,130 | 65.2 | 20.2 | 20.9 | 9.1 | 29.9 | 13.5 | 6.4 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 183 | 250 | Colne Valley | Paul Davies | 72,638 | 63.6 | 20.0 | 21.8 | 9.4 | 31.3 | 11.8 | 5.6 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 189 | 244 | Leeds East | Richard Burgon | 76,207 | 51.7 | 10.8 | 25.4 | 6.1 | 35.7 | 13.9 | 8.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 192 | 240 | Dewsbury and Batley | Iqbal Hussain Mohamed | 71,685 | 53.1 | 11.0 | 11.2 | 4.2 | 22.1 | 17.2 | 34.2 | 0.0 | MIN | MIN |
| 231 | 202 | Hull West and Haltemprice | Emma Hardy | 73,252 | 52.1 | 8.0 | 30.5 | 4.6 | 45.0 | 6.2 | 5.6 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 239 | 194 | Keighley and Ilkley | Robbie Moore | 74,367 | 62.1 | 29.0 | 16.9 | 7.9 | 32.1 | 10.8 | 3.3 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 256 | 177 | Skipton and Ripon | Julian Smith | 79,251 | 67.4 | 26.5 | 16.3 | 11.5 | 32.6 | 10.3 | 2.8 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 268 | 165 | Barnsley North | Dan Jarvis | 78,267 | 47.1 | 2.9 | 34.4 | 1.8 | 51.7 | 3.2 | 5.9 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 275 | 158 | Halifax | Kate Alexandra Dearden | 77,516 | 51.9 | 15.0 | 17.2 | 8.3 | 35.0 | 17.5 | 6.9 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 293 | 140 | Doncaster Central | Sally Jameson | 74,678 | 50.8 | 5.2 | 32.3 | 3.2 | 51.9 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 297 | 136 | Normanton and Hemsworth | Jon Trickett | 75,645 | 48.1 | 3.7 | 32.5 | 1.8 | 52.6 | 3.4 | 5.9 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 303 | 130 | Beverley and Holderness | Graham Stuart | 70,559 | 63.6 | 21.5 | 17.3 | 11.8 | 38.0 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 305 | 128 | Doncaster North | Ed Miliband | 69,759 | 44.4 | 8.8 | 26.6 | 7.0 | 47.3 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 308 | 125 | Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley | Yvette Cooper | 74,618 | 48.2 | 3.7 | 32.5 | 1.7 | 53.6 | 3.0 | 5.6 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 311 | 122 | Spen Valley | Kim Leadbeater | 72,642 | 56.5 | 15.9 | 19.2 | 9.3 | 40.4 | 11.0 | 4.2 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 314 | 119 | Ossett and Denby Dale | Jade Botterill | 72,312 | 60.7 | 18.2 | 18.5 | 8.9 | 40.0 | 9.5 | 4.8 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 319 | 114 | Rotherham | Sarah Champion | 75,929 | 48.6 | 5.8 | 19.9 | 8.9 | 41.6 | 15.6 | 8.1 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 327 | 106 | Scarborough and Whitby | Alison Hume | 74,558 | 59.3 | 18.9 | 17.5 | 9.0 | 40.0 | 9.4 | 5.3 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 328 | 105 | Bradford South | Judith Cummins | 71,002 | 46.5 | 12.2 | 15.8 | 7.7 | 38.3 | 18.7 | 7.4 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 328 | 104 | Harrogate and Knaresborough | Tom Gordon | 77,970 | 66.8 | 16.0 | 6.1 | 37.7 | 28.7 | 7.4 | 4.2 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 340 | 93 | Rawmarsh and Conisbrough | John Healey | 69,132 | 49.0 | 4.0 | 31.1 | 2.1 | 54.5 | 3.4 | 5.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 347 | 86 | Rother Valley | Jake Richards | 69,460 | 59.9 | 20.8 | 17.5 | 8.8 | 41.8 | 8.6 | 2.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 349 | 84 | Barnsley South | Stephanie Peacock | 75,850 | 46.3 | 3.9 | 29.2 | 2.7 | 53.6 | 4.6 | 6.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 351 | 81 | Wetherby and Easingwold | Alec Shelbrooke | 74,334 | 70.3 | 42.4 | 8.5 | 6.0 | 33.2 | 7.6 | 2.4 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 358 | 75 | Hull East | Karl Turner | 70,650 | 42.2 | 6.4 | 23.3 | 6.4 | 48.7 | 8.7 | 6.4 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 370 | 63 | Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes | Melanie Onn | 78,875 | 46.4 | 8.9 | 24.8 | 5.3 | 51.0 | 5.6 | 4.4 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 374 | 59 | Goole and Pocklington | David Davis | 78,287 | 63.5 | 35.4 | 10.9 | 7.0 | 37.5 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 389 | 44 | Scunthorpe | Nicholas Dakin | 74,263 | 52.6 | 18.1 | 16.2 | 7.7 | 44.7 | 8.6 | 4.7 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 400 | 32 | Thirsk and Malton | Kevin Hollinrake | 78,484 | 63.4 | 39.0 | 7.4 | 6.5 | 38.3 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 402 | 30 | Richmond and Northallerton | Rishi Sunak | 73,888 | 65.7 | 42.4 | 6.4 | 6.2 | 37.6 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 408 | 25 | Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme | Lee Pitcher | 70,154 | 55.8 | 18.3 | 14.9 | 8.7 | 47.7 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 423 | 10 | Bridlington and the Wolds | Charlie Dewhirst | 72,931 | 58.9 | 32.4 | 7.7 | 5.6 | 44.5 | 5.7 | 4.1 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 427 | 6 | Brigg and Immingham | Martin Vickers | 74,297 | 57.2 | 35.0 | 6.9 | 4.3 | 46.9 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.