Northern Ireland: New Constituency Boundaries 2013

The Boundary Commission for Northern Ireland reported in September 2013, and the new boundaries for the Province can be handled in a similar way to the rest of the UK. The main change is a reduction in the number of Northern Irish seats from 18 to 16. The likely impact on the political parties is shown in this summary table:

Party	2010 Actual Seats	2010 Notional Seats	Change
DUP	8	7	-1
Sinn Fein	5	5	0
SDLP	3	2	-1
Alliance	1	1	0
Independent	1	1	0
Total	18	16	-2

The summary of the main changes in Northern Ireland is

• The old seat of Belfast South (Dr Alasdair McDonnell, SDLP) disappears. It is broken up and parts of it make up the smaller parts of the new seats Belfast South East and Belfast South West.
• The old seat of Ulster Mid (Martin McGuinness, SF) disappears. Its parts make up the smaller parts of the two new seats of Glenshane and Tyrone Mid.
• The new seat of Glenshane is made up of the old Londonderry East (DUP) and Ulster Mid (SF). Although the Londonderry East portion is slightly larger, the seat overall is predicted to be SF.

Each new seat can be described as a combination of parts of old seats. These tables show this decomposition. The winner of the old seat at the 2010 election is shown by party colour, as is the implied winner of the new seat.

Full seat-by-seat notional results can be seen for all Northern Ireland.

The implied results are now calculated using the local election results for the wards which make up each old seat. This should be more accurate than the earlier implied results which assumed each constituency was homogeneous.

Antrim

New seat	Primary component	Secondary component(s)
Antrim East	95.3% of Antrim East	25.2% of Antrim South
Antrim South	69.2% of Antrim South	39.9% of Antrim North
Belfast North	100% of Belfast North	13.1% of Belfast West
Belfast South East	81.9% of Belfast East	41.7% of Belfast South
Belfast South West	86.9% of Belfast West	35.7% of Belfast South
Coleraine and Antrim North	60.1% of Antrim North	41.5% of Londonderry East 4.7% of Antrim East
Lagan Valley	100% of Lagan Valley	5.6% of Antrim South 4.0% of Upper Bann

Armagh

New seat	Primary component	Secondary component(s)
Newry and Armagh	97.4% of Newry and Armagh
Upper Bann	93.4% of Upper Bann	2.6% of Newry and Armagh

Down

New seat	Primary component	Secondary component(s)
Down North	100% of Down North	20.6% of Strangford
Down South	100% of Down South	2.5% of Upper Bann
Strangford	79.4% of Strangford	22.6% of Belfast South 18.1% of Belfast East

Fermanagh

New seat	Primary component	Secondary component(s)
Fermanagh and South Tyrone	100% of Fermanagh and South Tyrone	16.5% of Ulster Mid

Londonderry

New seat	Primary component	Secondary component(s)
Foyle	100% of Foyle	8.3% of Tyrone West
Glenshane	58.5% of Londonderry East	53.8% of Ulster Mid

Tyrone

New seat	Primary component	Secondary component(s)
Tyrone Mid	91.7% of Tyrone West	29.7% of Ulster Mid