A new poll by Electoral Calculus and Find Out Now for the Sunday Mirror looked at defence and security to seek the public's views.
Key findings:
The table shows the breakdown of responses to question 1(a), by political party vote in the general election of 2024.
| Response | All voters | LAB voters | CON voters | Reform voters |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Big risk | 11% | 8% | 13% | 21% |
| A fair amount of risk | 34% | 34% | 41% | 29% |
| Not much risk | 36% | 44% | 35% | 37% |
| No risk | 7% | 6% | 5% | 10% |
| Don't know | 12% | 8% | 5% | 3% |
| NET: Some risk | 45% | 42% | 55% | 49% |
| NET: Little risk | 43% | 50% | 40% | 47% |
Nearly half of the public (45pc) believe that Britain is at some risk of military attack from another country, while an almost equal share, (43pc), think there is little risk of this happening. The split suggests a nation unsure how seriously to take the threat, with many concerned about the possibility of an attack, but others less convinced that it will spill onto British soil. Only 11pc think there is a big risk of a military attack.
Political differences are modest, though concern is higher among Conservative and Reform voters, with 55pc and 49pc respectively seeing some risk compared with 42pc of Labour supporters.
However, one fifth (21pc) of Reform voters say they see a big risk of a military attack, almost three times the 8pc of Labour voters who share that level of concern.
For comparison we also asked a similar question about global economic problems.
| Response | All voters | LAB voters | CON voters | Reform voters |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Big risk | 38% | 38% | 38% | 42% |
| A fair amount of risk | 44% | 50% | 50% | 47% |
| Not much risk | 6% | 5% | 6% | 7% |
| No risk | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% |
| Don't know | 12% | 6% | 5% | 4% |
| NET: Some risk | 82% | 88% | 89% | 89% |
| NET: Little risk | 7% | 6% | 6% | 7% |
The public expresses far greater alarm over global economic problems than the prospect of a military attack. An overwhelming (82pc) believe global economic issues poses some degree of risk to the country. While only one in ten (11pc) voters saw military action as a big risk, over a third (38pc) believe economic problems present a big risk to Britain.
Across all parties, voters are deeply concerned about the impact of economic challenges. Both Conservative and Reform voters are unanimous in their concern, with 89pc seeing some level of risk, closely followed by 88pc of Labour supporters.
The findings show that the vast majority of voters see economic problems as one of the most serious and pressing threats to Britain's future and a shared national worry that cuts across party lines.
As another comparison, we also asked about climate change.
| Response | All voters | LAB voters | CON voters | Reform voters |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Big risk | 35% | 51% | 25% | 12% |
| A fair amount of risk | 32% | 31% | 39% | 33% |
| Not much risk | 16% | 9% | 25% | 30% |
| No risk | 7% | 3% | 5% | 21% |
| Don't know | 11% | 6% | 6% | 4% |
| NET: Some risk | 67% | 82% | 64% | 45% |
| NET: Little risk | 23% | 12% | 30% | 51% |
When asked about the threat posed to Britain by climate change, 67pc said it poses some risk, suggesting that environmental concerns remain significant, though they are far from universally accepted. More than a third (35pc) view climate change as a big risk, while nearly a quarter (23pc) believe it carries little or no threat at all.
Opinion divides sharply along political lines. A large majority of Labour voters (82pc) see climate change as a serious issue, with over half (51pc) describing it as a major risk. However, Reform voters are far more sceptical, with half (51pc) believing climate change carries little risk and only 12pc viewing it as a serious problem.
We then asked people a set of three questions about whether we should spend more on defence and how to pay for it. We began by asking about taxes.
| Response | All voters | LAB voters | CON voters | Reform voters |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Agree strongly | 9% | 9% | 15% | 18% |
| Agree | 30% | 33% | 48% | 36% |
| Neither agree nor disagree | 23% | 25% | 23% | 16% |
| Disagree | 17% | 18% | 7% | 18% |
| Disagree strongly | 8% | 5% | 3% | 7% |
| Don't know | 14% | 10% | 4% | 5% |
| NET: Agree | 39% | 41% | 63% | 54% |
| NET: Disagree | 24% | 23% | 10% | 24% |
More Britons agree than disagree that the country should spend more on defence to fight a military threat even if it means higher taxes (39pc to 24pc). But views are mixed, with almost a quarter (23pc) neutral and 14pc unsure.
Conservative and Reform voters are the most willing to pay more to strengthen Britain's defences. Nearly two thirds of Conservatives (63pc) agree that higher taxes are justified, as do just over half of Reform supporters (54pc).
Support for raising taxes to fight a military threat is lowest among Labour voters at 41pc agreeing, however 23pc disagree and a further 35pc are either neutral or don't know. Currently, no party is making defence a defining priority or main talking point, with the national conversation still led by the economy, immigration and the NHS.
We then asked about cutting social security spending.
| Response | All voters | LAB voters | CON voters | Reform voters |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Agree strongly | 9% | 5% | 22% | 20% |
| Agree | 20% | 14% | 35% | 33% |
| Neither agree nor disagree | 20% | 19% | 19% | 24% |
| Disagree | 24% | 34% | 13% | 13% |
| Disagree strongly | 14% | 17% | 6% | 5% |
| Don't know | 13% | 11% | 4% | 4% |
| NET: Agree | 29% | 20% | 57% | 53% |
| NET: Disagree | 37% | 50% | 19% | 18% |
Only 29pc of the public would be willing to support cuts to social security to fund spending against a military threat, while 37pc disagree, with 33pc neutral or unsure.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, the political divide is clear. A majority of both Conservative and Reform supporters would accept cuts to social spending for defence, compared with only one in five Labour supporters (20pc). Half of Labour voters (50pc) reject the idea.
The findings suggest there is little appetite from Labour supporters for boosting defence spending at the expense of the welfare budget.
We then asked about reducing spending on climate change to pay for defence.
| Response | All voters | LAB voters | CON voters | Reform voters |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Agree strongly | 15% | 5% | 24% | 47% |
| Agree | 18% | 12% | 33% | 24% |
| Neither agree nor disagree | 18% | 20% | 21% | 11% |
| Disagree | 21% | 32% | 14% | 8% |
| Disagree strongly | 15% | 23% | 4% | 6% |
| Don't know | 12% | 9% | 3% | 4% |
| NET: Agree | 34% | 16% | 58% | 71% |
| NET: Disagree | 36% | 55% | 18% | 14% |
Public opinion is split when defence spending is set against cuts to climate change action. Around one third (34pc) say they would back reducing climate spending to fight a military threat but a further 36pc disagree with cuts in this area.
Reform supporters, on the other hand, are the most willing to shift funds away from climate initiatives, with 71pc backing cuts to climate funding, followed by 58pc of Conservatives. Among Labour voters, support drops sharply to just 16pc, while more than half (55pc) oppose the idea.
The first year of Donald Trump's presidency in the US and created some uncertainty about US security policy. We asked people if how much they could rely on the United States for security assistance.
| Response | All voters | LAB voters | CON voters | Reform voters |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almost always | 6% | 5% | 7% | 11% |
| Mostly | 20% | 16% | 28% | 39% |
| Sometimes | 35% | 40% | 37% | 31% |
| Rarely | 25% | 32% | 21% | 10% |
| Don't know | 14% | 7% | 7% | 8% |
| NET: Usually | 26% | 21% | 35% | 51% |
| NET: Less often | 60% | 72% | 58% | 41% |
Amid ongoing global uncertainty and shifting alliances, confidence in the special relationship between the UK and the United States appears to be dwindling. A clear majority of the public (60pc) do not believe the UK can usually rely on the United States for protection against military threats, compared with just 26pc who think it can.
Most Labour and the Conservative supporters say the US generally cannot be depended on, with Labour quite sceptical (72pc). Reform supporters are more confident, with just over half (51pc) believing America remains a reliable ally against a military threat.
National Service was in effect in Britain from 1949 to 1963 and involved eighteen months of compulsory military training for young men. Its reintroduction in modified form has been sometimes proposed since then. We asked what people thought.
| Response | All voters | LAB voters | CON voters | Reform voters |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Support strongly | 15% | 9% | 28% | 26% |
| Support | 25% | 19% | 40% | 31% |
| Neither support nor oppose | 19% | 19% | 15% | 18% |
| Oppose | 14% | 21% | 10% | 12% |
| Oppose strongly | 15% | 25% | 2% | 8% |
| Don't know | 12% | 7% | 4% | 6% |
| NET: Support | 40% | 28% | 68% | 56% |
| NET: Oppose | 29% | 46% | 12% | 19% |
While views on National Service are mixed, support outweighs opposition as 40pc of Brits are for its reintroduction, compared with 29pc who are opposed.
The policy was thrust back into debate during the 2024 general election campaign when then Prime Minister Rishi Sunak pledged to make National Service mandatory for 18-year-olds. Keir Starmer has never backed the scheme and this is reflected across Labour voters. Fewer than three in ten (28pc) support reintroducing National Service with nearly half (46pc) against it.
Both Conservative and Reform voters are more supportive of this scheme with 68pc and 56pc.
Next, we asked if people would be prepared to fight for Britain, if it were necessary.
| Response | All voters | LAB voters | CON voters | Reform voters |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Definitely | 16% | 10% | 30% | 26% |
| Probably | 13% | 12% | 16% | 16% |
| Maybe | 13% | 17% | 10% | 11% |
| Unlikely | 30% | 33% | 30% | 27% |
| Never | 16% | 20% | 6% | 14% |
| Don't know | 13% | 8% | 8% | 7% |
| NET: Probably | 29% | 21% | 46% | 42% |
| NET: Possibly | 42% | 51% | 40% | 37% |
Around a quarter of people (29pc) said they 'definitely' or 'probably' would fight if required. A further 42pc said 'maybe' or 'unlikely'. Only one in six said 'never', and 13pc did not know.
Labour supporters were less keen, with a majority (53pc) saying 'unlikely' or 'never'.
We can also see this broken down by gender and age:
| Response | Male | Female | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Age 18-39 | Age 40-59 | Age 60+ | Age 18-39 | Age 40-59 | Age 60+ | |
| Definitely | 12% | 19% | 34% | 3% | 12% | 13% |
| Probably | 15% | 22% | 14% | 8% | 13% | 8% |
| Maybe | 20% | 16% | 10% | 13% | 13% | 6% |
| Unlikely | 27% | 25% | 31% | 28% | 27% | 44% |
| Never | 15% | 14% | 6% | 26% | 17% | 16% |
| Don't know | 10% | 6% | 5% | 22% | 18% | 13% |
| NET: Probably | 27% | 41% | 48% | 11% | 25% | 21% |
| NET: Possibly | 47% | 40% | 40% | 41% | 40% | 50% |
For policymakers, the key demographic is 18-39 year old men, who are the most useful for military activities. This group has similar attitudes to the national average, with 27pc likely to fight, and 47pc possible. Older men are more likely to agree to fight, though they may be less likely to be required. Women are less likely to agree, but older women are more likely to participate.
Next we asked how the Labour government is perceived as doing on defence issues.
| Response | All voters | LAB voters | CON voters | Reform voters |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very well | 1% | 3% | 0% | 0% |
| Well | 7% | 17% | 5% | 2% |
| Neither well nor badly | 24% | 35% | 21% | 16% |
| Badly | 19% | 16% | 26% | 23% |
| Very badly | 24% | 7% | 40% | 51% |
| Don't know | 23% | 21% | 7% | 8% |
| NET: Well | 9% | 20% | 5% | 2% |
| NET: Badly | 44% | 23% | 67% | 74% |
Public confidence in Labour's handling of defence is low, with 44pc saying the government is doing badly compared with just 9pc who think it is doing well.
Even among Labour's own voters, approval is limited. Just one in five (20pc) think the government is managing defence issues well, while around a third sit on the fence and almost a quarter (23pc) say it is performing poorly.
It's perhaps no surprise that criticism is far sharper among Conservative and Reform voters, with two thirds of Conservatives (67pc) and an even larger share of Reform supporters (74pc) saying Labour is handling defence badly.
Finally, we asked people how likely they though a war involving Britain would be.
| Response | All voters | LAB voters | CON voters | Reform voters |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very likely | 7% | 5% | 6% | 12% |
| Likely | 25% | 24% | 31% | 31% |
| Neither likely nor unlikely | 18% | 20% | 21% | 18% |
| Unlikely | 22% | 26% | 23% | 22% |
| Very unlikely | 8% | 8% | 8% | 12% |
| Don't know | 19% | 17% | 11% | 6% |
| NET: Likely | 32% | 29% | 37% | 42% |
| NET: Unlikely | 30% | 34% | 31% | 34% |
Earlier this year, the government said it would invest billions of pounds to move the UK to "war-fighting readiness". Yet, the public remains split on whether war feels like a genuine possibility or a distant concern as around a third (32pc) think conflict in the next five years is likely, while 30pc say it is not.
Nevertheless, even a third of voters thinking war is 'likely' is a sobering thought.
Partisan differences are fairly muted. Reform voters slightly more likely to believe conflict is on the horizon, with 42pc expecting Britain to be drawn into war within five years. Among Conservatives, 37pc share that view, compared with 29pc of Labour supporters.
The findings show a country grappling with global dangers, with some worried that Britain itself will be involved, and others unconcerned.
Martin Baxter, CEO of Electoral Calculus, said "The general public are a bit worried about defence. They are not sure that Labour is handling it well, and many doubt that the United States can be relied on for protection. But the public is split on key questions about paying for extra defence spending, national service and taking part in combat."
"Defence is tricky issue for Labour, as their own supporters are less keen on defence, but the international environment is turning chillier and a responsible government can't ignore that."
Prof Richard Rose, University of Strathclyde, said "The survey shows that more Britons are prepared to pay higher taxes to the strengthen the military than to serve in a fighting capacity themselves."
"The weakness of the Labour government in delivering economic growth is matched by a majority of Britons thinking they can't rely on the Labour government for a good defence policy."
Find Out Now polled 2,056 GB adults online from 20-21 October 2025. The sample was weighted to be representative by gender, age, social grade, other demographics and past voting patterns.
Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus are both members of the British Polling Council and abide by its rules.
Data tables for this poll are available here.
Electoral Calculus is a pollster and political consultancy specialising in quantitative analysis and modelling for electoral and other market research projects. It has successfully predicted UK general elections since 2010. It was founded by Martin Baxter, its CEO.
Electoral Calculus is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules, and is a company partner of the Market Research Society.
Find Out Now is a polling and market research panel with 2.8 million members. Highly profiled respondents can be targeted instantly, with over 100,000 daily responses allowing the delivery of same-day nationally representative sampling.
Find Out Now are a member of the British Polling Council and abide by its rules, and are a company partner of the Market Research Society.