Districts Poll April 2021

This page first posted 4 May 2021, revised 5 May 2021

Pollster Find Out Now and election experts Electoral Calculus have run a MRP poll on the upcoming English district council elections on 6 May 2021.

The poll asked residents of the 123 district councils up for election, whether and how they intended toleratevote on Thursday. (Note the Isles of Scilly council is excluded, as national parties do not contest it.)

The headline voting intention for these council areas is

PartyShare of vote (pc)
CON30
LAB38
LIB13
Reform3
Green8
Independent/Other8

The fact that Labour are ahead in the vote share is expected, since many of the councils are traditional Labour areas in the north of England and Labour already holds more of these councils than the Conservatives.

Predicted Council Results

The predicted results are shown in the map below and the summary table. Detailed results are at the bottom of this page.

Predicted District Council Results May 2021
Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2013, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

The number of councils predicted to be controlled by each party is shown in the next table.

Party in Control of CouncilCurrent Number of Councils Predicted Number of CouncilsPredicted Change
CON273912
LAB52542
LIB671
Reform000
Green000
Independent10-1
NOC / Coalition3723-14
Total1231230

The prediction is that both the Conservatives and Labour will gain councils from 'No overall control', though the Conservatives are likely to gain more.

This would be a good result for the Conservatives given the recent sleaze allegations.

In terms of the number of wards won, the prediction is:

PartyCurrent WardsPredicted WardsPredicted Change
CON1,8442,183339
LAB2,7493,029280
LIB851754-97
Reform113-8
Green10698-8
Independent/Other567364-203
Vacant162110-52
Total6,2906,541251

Note the number of wards has increased by around 250 because of the newly created unitary councils of Buckinghamshire, North Northamptonshire and West Northamptonshire.

The figures show that the Conservatives and Labour are both predicted to gain seats, with the Liberal Democrats and Independents predicted to lose some seats. Again, the fact that the Conservatives are gaining a similar number of seats to Labour should be encouraging for them. As we approach the parliamentary mid-term, the governing party often starts to suffer electoral losses.

Councils Predicted to Change Hands

Conservative gains:

Labour gains:

Liberal Democrat gains:

Councils switching to 'No Overall Control':

Predicting councils with new boundaries can be difficult because voters have not had the chance of voting in those new wards before, and local voting patterns may vary. In particular, Cornwall, Hartlepool, and Basingstoke and Deane are not certain predictions and may behave idiosyncratically.

Additionally, Adur council is quite marginal are could easily go the other way.

The predictions show that the Conservatives might gain a council directly from Labour, while Labour gains no councils directly from the Conservatives. If that transpires, it would be a good result for the Conservatives.

The Conservatives are also predicted to gain some councils in the Midlands (such as Cannock Chase, Dudley, and Nuneaton and Bedworth) which is encouraging for them. But they are not making further inroads into the 'Red Wall' of northern England.

Commentary

Chris Holbrook, CEO of Find Out Now said "Our polling suggests that recent controversies surrounding the Prime Minister haven't changed voting intention, or at least it hasn't reached a tipping point yet. If further stories develop, there may be only so much that the Conservatives' newest constituents will tolerate."

Martin Baxter, CEO of Electoral Calculus: "Labour look like missing an opportunity to make real electoral progress, and the Conservatives have successfully steadied their ship. That would deprive Labour of some political momentum, and bring relief to the government."

Full List of Councils

This table shows current and predicted controlling party in each of the 123 English district councils up for election (excluding Isles of Scilly).

NOC = 'No overall control': no party has an absolute majority

DistrictCurrentPredictedComments
AdurNOCNOCMarginal – could go either way
Amber ValleyLABCON 
BarnsleyLABLAB 
BasildonNOCCON 
Basingstoke and DeaneNOCNOCNew boundaries – prediction uncertain
Blackburn with DarwenLABLAB 
BoltonNOCNOC 
BradfordLABLAB 
BrentwoodCONCON 
BristolNOCLAB 
BroxbourneCONCON 
BuckinghamshireNOCCONNew local authority
BurnleyNOCLAB 
BuryLABLAB 
CalderdaleLABLAB 
CambridgeLABLABNew boundaries
Cannock ChaseNOCCON 
Castle PointCONCON 
CheltenhamLIBLIB 
CherwellCONCON 
ChorleyLABLABNew boundaries
ColchesterNOCNOC 
CornwallNOCCONNew boundaries – prediction uncertain
CoventryLABLAB 
CrawleyNOCCON 
DerbyNOCNOC 
DoncasterLABLAB 
DudleyNOCCON 
DurhamLABLAB 
EastleighLIBLIB 
ElmbridgeNOCNOC 
Epping ForestCONCON 
ExeterLABLAB 
FarehamCONCON 
GatesheadLABLAB 
GloucesterNOCCON 
GosportCONCON 
HaltonLABLABNew boundaries
HarlowLABNOC 
HartNOCNOC 
HartlepoolOTHLABNew boundaries – prediction uncertain
HastingsLABLAB 
HavantCONCON 
HyndburnLABLAB 
IpswichLABLAB 
Isle of WightCONCONNew boundaries
Kingston upon HullLABLAB 
KirkleesNOCNOC 
KnowsleyLABLAB 
LeedsLABLAB 
LincolnLABLAB 
LiverpoolLABLAB 
MaidstoneNOCNOC 
ManchesterLABLAB 
Milton KeynesNOCNOC 
Mole ValleyLIBLIB 
Newcastle upon TyneLABLAB 
North East LincolnshireCONCON 
North HertfordshireNOCNOC 
North NorthamptonshireNOCCONNew local authority
North TynesideLABLAB 
NorthumberlandNOCNOC 
NorwichLABLAB 
Nuneaton and BedworthNOCCON 
OldhamLABLAB 
OxfordLABLABNew boundaries
PendleNOCCONNew boundaries
PeterboroughNOCNOC 
PlymouthLABLAB 
PortsmouthNOCNOC 
PrestonLABLAB 
ReadingLABLAB 
RedditchCONCON 
Reigate and BansteadCONCON 
RochdaleLABLAB 
RochfordCONCON 
RossendaleLABLAB 
RotherhamLABLABNew boundaries
RugbyCONCON 
RunnymedeCONCON 
RushmoorCONCON 
SalfordLABLABNew boundaries
SandwellLABLAB 
SeftonLABLAB 
SheffieldLABLAB 
ShropshireCONCON 
SloughLABLAB 
SolihullCONCON 
South TynesideLABLAB 
SouthamptonLABLAB 
Southend-on-SeaNOCNOC 
St AlbansNOCLIB 
St HelensLABLAB 
StevenageLABLAB 
StockportNOCNOC 
StroudNOCNOCNew boundaries – prediction uncertain
SunderlandLABLAB 
SwindonCONCON 
TamesideLABLAB 
TamworthCONCON 
TandridgeNOCNOC 
Three RiversLIBLIB 
ThurrockCONCON 
TraffordLABLAB 
Tunbridge WellsCONCON 
WakefieldLABLAB 
WalsallCONCON 
WarringtonLABLAB 
WatfordLIBLIB 
Welwyn HatfieldNOCNOC 
West LancashireLABLAB 
West NorthamptonshireNOCCONNew local authority
West OxfordshireCONCON 
WiganLABLAB 
WiltshireCONCONNew boundaries
WinchesterLIBLIB 
WirralNOCLAB 
WokingNOCNOC 
WokinghamCONCON 
WolverhamptonLABLAB 
WorcesterNOCNOC 
WorthingCONCON 
Wyre ForestNOCNOC 

Fieldwork

Find Out Now polled 11,506 residents of 123 English district councils online between 27-28 April 2021. The sample was weighted to be representative by gender, age, social grade and past voting patterns. Regression techniques were used to infer ward and council results.

Find Out Now is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.