Pollster Find Out Now and election experts Electoral Calculus have run a poll on voting intention for Westminster and other topical questions, This poll involved 2,128 respondents and was carried out on 13 January 2022.
The poll asked GB residents whether and how they intend to vote if there were an imminent general election.
The headline voting intention is shown in the highlighted column:
| Party | Vote share at GE 2019 (pc) | Current Estimated Vote Share (pc) | Estimated Change (pc) |
|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 45 | 27 | −18 |
| LAB | 33 | 41 | +8 |
| LIB | 12 | 11 | −1 |
| Reform | 2 | 5 | +3 |
| Green | 3 | 8 | +5 |
This gives an estimated Labour lead over the Conservatives of 14pc which is Labour's largest lead since the days of Tony Blair.
Using Electoral Calculus' seat predictor, the estimated number of seats won by each party would be
| Party | Number of Seats at GE 2019 | Predicted Seats Won | Predicted Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 365 | 188 | −177 |
| LAB | 203 | 362 | +159 |
| SNP | 48 | 59 | +11 |
| LIB | 11 | 16 | +5 |
| Plaid | 4 | 5 | +1 |
| Green | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Reform | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Other parties | 0 | 1 | +1 |
| Total | 632 | 632 | 0 |
The prediction is that Labour would win 362 seats and have a very strong majority of 74 seats in the House of Commons.
Respondents were also asked other questions around recent events.
| Response | Percentage of all respondents | Percentage of those respondents who voted CON in 2019 |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 61% | 39% |
| No | 19% | 41% |
| Don't know | 14% | 17% |
| Prefer not to say | 5% | 3% |
A clear majority of voters think that Boris Johnson should resign, and Conservative voters themselves are split roughly equally between 'yes' and 'no'.
| Response | Percentage of all respondents | Percentage of those respondents who voted CON in 2019 |
|---|---|---|
| Lock-down rules were too strict and it's not surprising that not everyone followed them exactly | 15% | 22% |
| Lock-down rules were about right and everyone should have followed them fairly closely | 67% | 65% |
| Don't know | 10% | 8% |
| Prefer not to say | 8% | 5% |
Another clear majority of the public thinks that lock-down rules were about right and should have been followed. Conservative voters have similar views.
Chris Holbrook, CEO of Find Out Now: "The damage caused by inexorable allegations of rule-breaking at Number 10 seems increasingly terminal for Boris Johnson."
Martin Baxter, CEO of Electoral Calculus: "This poll caps a bad week for the Conservatives, showing Labour's lead is the largest since the days of Tony Blair. On these figures, Keir Starmer would be Prime Minister with a substantial majority. Many former Conservative voters now do not know how or whether to vote."
Find Out Now polled 2,128 GB adults online on 13 January 2022. The sample was weighted to be representative by gender, age, social grade, other demographics and past voting patterns. Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus are both members of the British Polling Council and abide by its rules.
Data tables are available for Voting Intention and the Other questions.