Electoral Calculus Analysis Team have made the following prediction for the upcoming Japanese Upper House Election on 20 July 2025.
The upcoming election in Japan is highly likely to collapse the governing coalition in the Japanese upper house between the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito.
The LDP are still expected to retain their position as the largest party in the house.
This election is being held against the backdrop of collapsing government support, the potential revision of Article 9 and rising geopolitical tensions in the region. The fragmentation of government support has been compounded by the rise in support of the right-wing Sanseito party (Do-It-Yourself party).
Japanese elections use a parallel voting system, which complicate the applicability and extrapolation of polling in the country. Additionally, while there are 248 seats in the chamber, only 124 seats are up for re-election.
While current polling looks dire for the governing block, the nature of the Japanese electoral system is likely to mitigate the losses faced by the LDP. Despite this, the collapse of the current governing coalition in the chamber is almost inevitable. The LDP are currently in the midst of receiving their worst polling in over a decade. While the long-term fragility of the party is becoming more apparent, their survivability at this election is being buoyed by the underwhelming polling performance of the main opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP).
Despite this, the CDP are anticipated to pick up a number of seats at this election. The other 'big winner' of the night is likely to be Sanseito. While their total seat count is likely to be modest, if polling holds they could pick up more than 12 seats at this election. In a hung parliament with few viable coalition options, this small seat count could provide significant political leverage to a party which is commonly described as 'far-right'.
The guiding issues for Japanese voters at this election centre around Article 9, government apathy and the consumption tax. While the LDP will remain the largest party after Sunday's election, their capacity to command a coalition majority in the house will be greatly diminished. The current coalition is highly likely to collapse, potentially leading to a situation where the upper house becomes ungovernable.