Pollsters Electoral Calculus and Find Out Now have run a poll for the Sunday Mirror on the anniversary of Labour's election win in July 2024.
Fieldwork was conducted from 3–4 July 2025, with a sample size of over 2,500. Respondents were asked a set of topical questions.
The main findings are:
Below you can find a results breakdown for each question of the poll and what the data conveys.
Q1. "Are you and your family better or worse off than a year ago, or about the same?"
| Response | All voters | LAB | CON | Reform |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Much better off | 2% | 1% | 1% | 4% |
| A bit better off | 10% | 13% | 11% | 4% |
| About the same | 35% | 40% | 36% | 34% |
| A bit worse off | 28% | 27% | 34% | 26% |
| Much worse off | 18% | 13% | 16% | 28% |
| Don't know | 7% | 5% | 2% | 3% |
| Net better | 12% | 15% | 12% | 8% |
| Net worse | 46% | 41% | 50% | 54% |
More people (46pc) are feeling worse off than better off (12pc) in the last twelve months. This applies to Labour supporters as much as the general public. Since the economy is a top issue for the public, Labour must hope that perceptions of the economy improve before the next election.
Q2. "Is Britain under Keir Starmer's leadership on the right or wrong track?"
| Response | All voters | LAB | CON | Reform |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Right track | 8% | 25% | 2% | 1% |
| Neither right nor wrong | 15% | 27% | 10% | 7% |
| Wrong track | 55% | 30% | 80% | 87% |
| Don't know | 21% | 18% | 8% | 5% |
A majority (55pc) of voters think Britain is on the wrong track under Keir Starmer. Even Labour supporters are split on the issue, with 30pc saying 'wrong track' compared with 25pc saying 'right track'. Predictably, Conservative and Reform supporters are particularly sceptical.
Q3. "Is it clear what Keir Starmer stands for and what his priorities are?"
| Response | All voters | LAB | CON | Reform |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very clear | 4% | 4% | 3% | 9% |
| Fairly clear | 8% | 19% | 5% | 3% |
| A bit mixed | 22% | 37% | 18% | 14% |
| Faily unclear | 15% | 15% | 18% | 8% |
| Very unclear | 33% | 13% | 51% | 58% |
| Don't know | 18% | 11% | 5% | 8% |
| Net clear | 12% | 23% | 8% | 12% |
| Net unclear | 48% | 29% | 69% | 66% |
Nearly half of all voters (48pc) think that Keir Starmer does not have clear values and priorities. Over a quarter of Labour supporters (29pc) agree that his values are unclear, which is slightly larger than the number who think his values are clear (23pc).
Q4. "How much do you think Keir Starmer shares your values?"
| Response | All voters | LAB | CON | Reform |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very much | 1% | 3% | 0% | 1% |
| Mostly | 5% | 17% | 2% | 0% |
| Somewhat | 14% | 33% | 8% | 4% |
| Not much | 24% | 22% | 30% | 16% |
| Not at all | 39% | 14% | 56% | 76% |
| Don't know | 16% | 12% | 5% | 4% |
| Net mostly/very much | 6% | 20% | 2% | 1% |
| Net not much/not at all | 63% | 36% | 85% | 92% |
A clear majority (63pc) of the public think that Keir Starmer doesn't share their values. Even among Labour supporters, there are nearly twice as many who don't think he shares their values (36pc) as do (20pc). Conservative and Reform supporters are unsurprisingly sceptical.
Q5. "Thinking about government U-turns, which of the following two statements do you most agree with?"
| Response | All voters | LAB | CON | Reform |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| They show the government is listening | 19% | 40% | 10% | 6% |
| They show the government lacks the courage of its convictions | 37% | 24% | 58% | 61% |
| Neither | 22% | 18% | 23% | 25% |
| Don't know | 22% | 18% | 9% | 8% |
The public don't have a very clear opinion on this, though about twice as many people agree that the government lacks the courage of its convictions than think it shows the government is listening. Labour supporters are more supportive, which is positive for the government.
Q6. "Do you feel that Labour is focusing on the right or wrong things?"
| Response | All voters | LAB | CON | Reform |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mostly right | 6% | 17% | 3% | 1% |
| A bit mixed | 29% | 45% | 26% | 15% |
| Mostly wrong | 46% | 24% | 65% | 80% |
| Don't know | 18% | 14% | 6% | 5% |
Nearly half the population think Labour is focusing on the wrong things, with only one voter in sixteen saying their focus is mostly right. Even among Labour supporters, the most common response is that things have been "a bit mixed", with more thinking it has gone wrong than right.
Q7. "Who do you think is the bigger threat to Keir Starmer at the next election?"
| Response | All voters | LAB | CON | Reform |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kemi Badenoch and the Conservatives | 6% | 6% | 12% | 2% |
| Nigel Farage and Reform UK | 60% | 60% | 68% | 92% |
| Don't know | 34% | 33% | 20% | 7% |
The public are united in seeing Nigel Farage and Reform as a bigger threat to Keir Starmer than the Conservatives under Kemi Badenoch. A chunky 60pc of people said Reform, and only 6pc said the Conservatives. The remainder didn't know. Even among Conservative supporters, only 12pc thought their own party was the main challenger. This will be disappointing news to the Conservative leadership.
Martin Baxter, CEO of Electoral Calculus, said: "The poll shows the problems that Keir Starmer has had in his first year. People think his values are unclear or wrong, and that he focuses on the wrong issues. To keep power he will have to convince people that the economy and NHS are improving. Many of his supporters want a "proper" Labour government with higher spending, but he doesn't have that much cash to splash around."
"Reform are widely seen as the main threat to Labour. That could help Starmer if he can convince centre-left voters that only Labour can beat Reform and also if he can persuade Reform supporters that he can govern better than Nigel Farage. Starmer needs to show his vision and deliver on it, otherwise the public will lose patience."
Find Out Now polled 2,665 GB adults online between 3-4 July 2025. The sample was weighted to be representative by gender, age, social grade, other demographics and past voting patterns.
Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus are both members of the British Polling Council and abide by its rules.
Data tables for this poll are available here.
Electoral Calculus is a pollster and political consultancy specialising in quantitative analysis and modelling for electoral and other market research projects. It has successfully predicted UK general elections since 2010. It was founded by Martin Baxter, its CEO.
Electoral Calculus is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules, and is a company partner of the Market Research Society.
Find Out Now is a polling and market research panel with 2.8 million members. Highly profiled respondents can be targeted instantly, with over 100,000 daily responses allowing the delivery of same-day nationally representative sampling.
Find Out Now are a member of the British Polling Council and abide by its rules, and are a company partner of the Market Research Society.