On behalf of the Property Chronicle, pollsters Electoral Calculus and Find Out Now have run a poll across the UK on public opinion on the achievability of UK's net-zero targets and on people's ability to cope with them.
Fieldwork was conducted from the 7th to the 9th of January 2025, with a sample size of over 2,000. Respondents were first asked to rate the achievability of net-zero targets by 2050. Then, the survey inquired on the achievability of a ban on new petrol and diesel cars by 2035, followed by a question on the respondents' personal ability to replace their existing car with an electric one. Similarly, the survey then asks about the achievability of a gas boiler ban by 2035, further asking about people's ability to replace their gas boiler with an alternative heating system.
The main findings are:
Below you can find a results breakdown for each question of the poll and what the data conveys.
Q1. "The UK has set a target to reach net-zero by 2050, aiming to balance the amount of gas emissions causing climate change with the amount of greenhouse gases removed from the atmosphere. At the moment three-quarters of our energy comes from fuels like oil and gas which emit greenhouse gases. Do you think reaching net-zero in the UK by 2050 is achievable or unachievable?"
| Response | All voters | LAB | CON | Reform |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Definitely achievable | 7% | 8% | 7% | 1% |
| Probably achievable | 13% | 20% | 11% | 3% |
| Could go either way | 23% | 29% | 21% | 10% |
| Probably unachievable | 36% | 32% | 36% | 39% |
| Definitely unachievable | 21% | 12% | 25% | 45% |
| Net achievable | 20% | 28% | 18% | 5% |
| Net unachievable | 56% | 43% | 61% | 85% |
Figures exclude those who didn't know or refused to answer
There are few Britons that believe net-zero is probably achievable or definitely achievable by 2050, 20% overall. More people, 23%, are somewhere in the middle, thinking it could go either way, while a majority of Britons, 56%, think net-zero by 2050 is unachievable.
These figures become more striking when divided by who people voted for in the 2024 General Election. Labour voters are the most optimistic about net-zero achievability, but still in a small proportion of only 28% of voters. Only 18% of Conservative voters think the target is reachable and an even lower 5% of Reform voters.
In terms of people who do not think the target is achievable, partisan differences are still present. Less than half of Labour voters think net-zero is unachievable, namely 43%, but these figures grow for other parties, with 61% of Conservative voters and a staggering 85% of Reform voters being cynical about the target. These findings show a pessimistic view of the net-zero target, with most people not trusting it can be reached even 25 years from now, despite the confidence of the government.
Q2. "To reach net-zero, the UK has set a target for all new cars and vans to be electric by 2035. This means that, from 2035, no new diesel or petrol cars will be made or sold. Do you think that banning all new petrol and diesel car sales by 2035 is achievable or unachievable?"
| Response | All voters | LAB | CON | Reform |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Definitely achievable | 8% | 10% | 5% | 3% |
| Probably achievable | 14% | 22% | 10% | 7% |
| Could go either way | 14% | 18% | 13% | 7% |
| Probably unachievable | 32% | 28% | 38% | 22% |
| Definitely unachievable | 31% | 23% | 34% | 61% |
| Net achievable | 23% | 32% | 16% | 10% |
| Net unachievable | 63% | 50% | 71% | 83% |
Figures exclude those who didn't know or refused to answer
Pessimism grows overall when it comes to banning the production or sale of new petrol and diesel cars by 2035. Overall, 63% of people do not think this is achievable, while 23% think the ban is possible and 14% are undecided.
Once again, partisan differences leave their mark on these views. The ban is seen as achievable by 32% of Labour voters, 16% of Conservative voters, and 10% of Reform voters. On the other hand, 50% of Labour voters do not think it is a plausible claim that the UK will switch to electric vehicles by 2035, with proportions growing to 71% of Conservative voters and 83% of Reform voters.
There are slightly more Britons overall that think the ban on petrol and diesel cars is reachable than those who believe in the general net-zero target, with more Labour voters and Reform voters being optimistic about it. Despite this, numbers are still reduced, making it unlikely for such a ban to be widely accepted in 10 years.
Q3. "Which of the following statements best reflects your own ability to cope with the ban on new petrol and diesel cars by 2035?"
| Response | All voters | LAB | CON | Reform |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| I don't own a car, so this doesn't apply to me | 22% | 27% | 10% | 13% |
| I currently have a petrol/diesel car, but I will probably buy an electric vehicle in the future | 20% | 29% | 17% | 10% |
| I currently have a petrol/diesel car, but I will probably not buy an electric vehicle in the future | 52% | 37% | 66% | 72% |
| I already own an electric vehicle | 5% | 7% | 7% | 5% |
Figures exclude those who didn't know or refused to answer
When asked about their personal ability to cope with this ban on petrol and diesel cars in 2035, only 25% of Britons are happy to abide by it, with 5% of people already owning an electric vehicle and 20% of petrol or diesel car owners being likely to buy an electric car in the future. 52% of people own a petrol or diesel car but do not want to switch to an electric one.
Among Labour voters, opinions are quite divided, with 29% of voters being willing to switch to an electric vehicle and 37% wanting to keep using a petrol or diesel car, while 27% of voters do not have a car at all and 7% already own an electric vehicle. For Conservative and Reform voters, views are more unanimous. Only 17% of Conservative voters and 10% of Reform voters would consider swapping their petrol or diesel car with an electric one, while 66% of Conservatives and 72% of Reform are not open to the idea. Overall, it seems that a ban on petrol and diesel cars in 2035 will not be viewed favourably by a majority of Britons, and Conservative and Reform voters will be much harder to convince to make the switch to an electric vehicle.
Q4. "To reach net-zero, the UK is considering a gas boiler ban by 2035. This would mean that no new gas boilers would be sold after 2035, banning them from new homes or from replacing an existing broken boiler. Homeowners would need to switch to a zero-emission alternative heating system, such as heat pumps or electric heating devices. Do you think that banning all gas boilers by 2035 is achievable or unachievable?"
| Response | All voters | LAB | CON | Reform |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Definitely achievable | 5% | 7% | 3% | 1% |
| Probably achievable | 12% | 19% | 8% | 5% |
| Could go either way | 14% | 14% | 10% | 8% |
| Probably unachievable | 34% | 32% | 40% | 29% |
| Definitely unachievable | 34% | 28% | 39% | 57% |
| Net achievable | 17% | 26% | 11% | 6% |
| Net unachievable | 69% | 60% | 78% | 86% |
Figures exclude those who didn't know or refused to answer
Moving on to a ban on the sale of new gas boilers in 2035, Britons are even more skeptical of the petrol and diesel ban, with only 17% thinking it is possible and 69% thinking it is unachievable.
With 26% of Labour voters thinking that the ban is achievable, they are once again the most optimistic group, even at this small number. Only 11% of Conservative voters and 6% of Reform voters think this is a realistic target. Compared to views on the petrol and diesel car ban, even more people think the gas boiler ban is unachievable across all parties, namely 60% of Labour voters, 78% of Conservative voters, and 86% of Reform voters.
Q5. "Which of the following statements best reflects your own ability to cope with the possible gas boiler ban in 2035?"
| Response | All voters | LAB | CON | Reform |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| I don't own my own home, so this doesn't apply to me | 28% | 31% | 15% | 24% |
| I currently have a gas boiler, but I will probably install an alternative system in the future | 18% | 27% | 15% | 6% |
| I currently have a gas boiler, but I will probably not install an alternative system in the future | 42% | 33% | 56% | 61% |
| My home already has a zero-emission heating system, such as heat pumps or electric heating | 5% | 3% | 5% | 3% |
| My home doesn't have a gas boiler or a zero-emission system, but has another heating system instead (e.g. fuel oil) | 8% | 5% | 10% | 6% |
Figures exclude those who didn't know or refused to answer
When thinking about their own ability to cope with the ban on gas boilers, once again, most people do not seem ready to convert to a zero-emissions alternative. Only 18% of people have homes fitted with a gas boiler but would be willing to switch to an alternative heating system, while 5% already have this type of system and 8% have neither a gas boiler nor a zero-emissions system. Most people, 42% own a gas boiler and will likely remain with this hearing system in the future.
The same patterns arise when people are divided by the party they voted for. Labour voters are the most likely group to switch to an alternative heating system, but still in a very reduced proportion, with only 27% of voters. Only 15% of Conservative voters and 6% of Reform voters are willing to make this switch. Most Conservative voters, 56%, and Reform voters, 61%, own gas boilers and want to keep them, while only 33% of Labour voters fall under this category. As with the switch to electric vehicles, most Britons will be hard to steer away from their gas boiler to a heat pump, and once again, Conservative and Reform voters will probably need more convincing than Labour.
Find Out Now polled 2,017 GB adults online between 7-9 January 2025. The sample was weighted to be representative by gender, age, social grade, other demographics and past voting patterns. Regression techniques were used to infer projected seat results.
Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus are both members of the British Polling Council and abide by its rules.
Data tables for this poll are available here.
Electoral Calculus is a pollster and political consultancy specialising in quantitative analysis and modelling for electoral and other market research projects. It has successfully predicted UK general elections since 2010. It was founded by Martin Baxter, its CEO.
Electoral Calculus is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules, and is a company partner of the Market Research Society.
Find Out Now is a polling and market research panel with 2.8 million members. Highly profiled respondents can be targeted instantly, with over 100,000 daily responses allowing the delivery of same-day nationally representative sampling.
Find Out Now are a member of the British Polling Council and abide by its rules, and are a company partner of the Market Research Society.