Pollsters Electoral Calculus and Find Out Now have run a poll across the UK on public opinion on NHS performance and the future of the NHS.
Fieldwork was conducted from the 5th to the 9th of December 2024, with a sample size of over 2,000. Respondents were first asked to rate the current state of the NHS, followed by what they think this state will be in 4 years' time. Then, people were asked to choose whether they believe the NHS could improve and under which government it could do so and, lastly, to choose whether the NHS should be kept unchanged, radically changed, or abolished.
The main findings are:
Below you can find a results breakdown for each question of the poll and what the data conveys.
| Response | All | LAB | CON |
|---|---|---|---|
| Very good | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| Good | 12% | 10% | 20% |
| Neither bad nor good | 22% | 24% | 27% |
| Bad | 38% | 43% | 31% |
| Very bad | 27% | 21% | 20% |
Figures exclude those who didn't know or refused to answer
Most Britons agree that the state of the NHS is poor, with a total of 65% saying it is either bad or very bad. A sizeable group of 22% would rate the NHS as neither bad nor good, while only 14% consider it good or very good.
Based on who they voted for in the 2024 General Election, Labour supporters are more likely to be critical of the NHS in the present, as inherited from the Conservative government. 64% of Labour voters consider it bad or very bad, as opposed to only 51% of Conservative voters.
| Response | All | LAB | CON |
|---|---|---|---|
| Much better | 4% | 9% | 2% |
| Slightly better | 21% | 42% | 12% |
| About the same | 29% | 23% | 42% |
| Slightly worse | 18% | 11% | 20% |
| Much worse | 28% | 15% | 25% |
Figures exclude those who didn't know or refused to answer
When it comes to projections about the NHS' future under this Labour government, public sentiment remains divided. A quarter (25%) believe it will improve in the next 4 years, 29% believe it will stay the same, and 46% believe it will deteriorate, with 28% of people going as far as to say the NHS will become much worse.
Labour supporters are the most optimistic about the NHS's prospects under the current government, with 51% of them thinking it will improve. Still, 26% of Labour voters think that the state of the NHS will worsen under this government, and 49% think it will worsen or stay the same. Conservatives opinion, on the other hand, is more pessimistic and unsure of NHS' chances under the Labour government, with 45% of supporters believing it will deteriorate and 42% believing that nothing will change.
| Response | All | LAB | CON |
|---|---|---|---|
| The NHS can get better under this Government | 30% | 65% | 12% |
| The NHS could get better under a different Government | 24% | 11% | 34% |
| The NHS is inherently broken and cannot get better under any government | 28% | 15% | 36% |
| The NHS is pretty good already and doesn't need improvement | 2% | 1% | 3% |
| None Of These | 16% | 9% | 15% |
Figures exclude those who refused to answer
Responses show a very divided Britain when it comes to the potential of the NHS. The only certainty is that almost no one believes the NHS is in a good place, with only 2% believing the system is alright and does not need improvement.
Strong partisan divisions arise, with most Labour supporters, namely 65% of them, thinking that the NHS can improve under this government. On the other hand, most Conservative voters are more divided and less trusting of this government. About a third of them (34%) believe that the NHS can only improve under a different government, while 36% of them believe that the system cannot get better under any government.
| Response | All | LAB | CON |
|---|---|---|---|
| The NHS should be abolished | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| The NHS should be radically changed | 63% | 54% | 69% |
| The NHS should be kept relatively unchanged | 24% | 33% | 23% |
| None of these | 12% | 12% | 7% |
Figures exclude those who refused to answer
Most Britons (63%) want a radical change of the NHS, a group including 69% of Conservative voters and over half (54%) of Labour voters.
Fewer than one in four thinks the NHS should be kept relatively unchanged. There are 33% of Labour supporters in this category and 23% of Conservative supporters.
Despite the fact that 28% of Britons believe the NHS has no chance of improvement under any government, there is almost no support for an abolition of the system, with only 1% of the population supporting such a measure.
Martin Baxter, CEO of Electoral Calculus, said: "Our poll shows that the public are fairly pessimistic about the NHS, and most people believe it is currently doing badly and is unlikely to improve. Over a half of voters want radical change, and over a quarters of voters think the NHS is unreformable. Despite that, almost no-one thinks the NHS should be abolished. This 'cognitive dissonance' suggests that many of the public think the NHS is unreformable, but should nevertheless be preserved."
Find Out Now polled 2,002 GB adults online between 5-9 December 2024. The sample was weighted to be representative by gender, age, social grade, other demographics and past voting patterns. Regression techniques were used to infer projected seat results.
Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus are both members of the British Polling Council and abide by its rules.
Data tables for this poll are available here.
Electoral Calculus is a pollster and political consultancy specialising in quantitative analysis and modelling for electoral and other market research projects. It has successfully predicted UK general elections since 2010. It was founded by Martin Baxter, its CEO.
Electoral Calculus is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules, and is a company partner of the Market Research Society.
Find Out Now is a polling and market research panel with 2.8 million members. Highly profiled respondents can be targeted instantly, with over 100,000 daily responses allowing the delivery of same-day nationally representative sampling.
Find Out Now are a member of the British Polling Council and abide by its rules, and are a company partner of the Market Research Society.