Polish Presidential Election Forecast

This page first posted 29 May 2025, result added 2 Jun 2025

Nawrocki Narrow Favourite in Tight Run-off

Electoral Calculus Analysis Team have made the following prediction for the upcoming Polish Presidential Election on 1 June 2025.

Summary

Although Rafał Trzaskowski won the first round, Andrzej Nawrocki is now slightly favoured to win the presidency. The race remains extremely close and within the margin of error.

Context

• Trzaskowski led in the first round, buoyed by broad centrist and liberal support.
• Markets currently price Trzaskowski as the favourite.
• However, 21.15% of the vote went to two far-right parties, whose supporters are more ideologically aligned with Nawrocki.

Key Dynamics

Voter psychology and momentum:

• Trzaskowski's early lead may create complacency among his voters.
• Nawrocki, positioned as the underdog, benefits from insurgent momentum.
• This psychological shift may depress turnout among liberal-leaning voters and energize the conservative base.

Polling Limitations and Adjustments:

• Historical patterns suggest underestimation of nationalist or far-right support in late- stage polling.
• Undecided voters in Poland often break right, particularly amid narratives of liberal overreach.
• Adjusting for these dynamics, Nawrocki's support may be significantly under-reported.

Conclusion

Despite trailing in the first round and in market expectations, Nawrocki holds structural and behavioural advantages that could prove decisive in a two-man run-off. In close races, asymmetric voter enthusiasm and polling blind spots can matter more than raw popularity.

UPDATE 2 JUNE 2025

In the second round election on 1 June, Karol Nawrocki won by a narrow margin of 50.9% to 49.1%. This is in line with our prediction above which we made two days before the election.