Polish Presidential Election Forecast

This page first posted 29 May 2025, result added 2 Jun 2025

Nawrocki Narrow Favourite in Tight Run-off

Electoral Calculus Analysis Team have made the following prediction for the upcoming Polish Presidential Election on 1 June 2025.

Summary

Although Rafał Trzaskowski won the first round, Andrzej Nawrocki is now slightly favoured to win the presidency. The race remains extremely close and within the margin of error.

Castle Square, Warsaw. Credit:Maksym Kozlenko

Context

Key Dynamics

Voter psychology and momentum:

Polling Limitations and Adjustments:

Conclusion

Despite trailing in the first round and in market expectations, Nawrocki holds structural and behavioural advantages that could prove decisive in a two-man run-off. In close races, asymmetric voter enthusiasm and polling blind spots can matter more than raw popularity.

UPDATE 2 JUNE 2025

In the second round election on 1 June, Karol Nawrocki won by a narrow margin of 50.9% to 49.1%. This is in line with our prediction above which we made two days before the election.


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