The anniversary on Sunday of Kemi Badenoch's election as Conservative leader a year ago is the day when her protection from a leadership challenge under party rules expires. Badenoch took the leadership when the Conservatives had just suffered their worst defeat in history. Her first year in office has been a reminder that there is no floor in politics. In October Conservative poll support averaged seven percent below its vote at the general election. If nothing is done, the party would likely be reduced to 54 MPs in the next House of Commons.
Badenoch's prescription for dealing with the continued loss of support is patience. A reputation for incompetent government built up under three different Tory prime ministers is not erased overnight. Nor need it be, since poll figures assume an election is held this week. In fact, the Conservatives have more than three years in which to develop a winning strategy before the next general election occurs.
Tory MPs have a pragmatic incentive to give Kemi Badenoch another six months to show what she can do to improve the party's standing with the electorate. Next May's local elections and ballots for devolved Parliaments in Scotland and Wales will provide evidence of whether the party is winning or losing seats. Since current augurs are unfavourable, challengers are happy for Badenoch to carry the blame whatever losses the party suffers.
The longer Kemi Badenoch continues in post without striking evidence of success the stronger the desire of Conservative MPs to do something to get the party out of the hole it is in. Changing the leader is the one thing that MPs have the power to do. However, there is lots of political science research showing that changing leaders has little effect on voters.
Adopting different policies is within the party's power. In response to the rise of Reform UK, Robert Jenrick has led the push to compete with it for the anti-immigrant vote. However, two former prime ministers, John Major and Theresa May, have warned that trying to out-Farage Farage is not only doomed to failure but also a rejection of the moderate appeal to centrist values that have enabled the party to win power in the past.
There are signs that patient Conservatives will not have to wait long for a opportunity to improve the party's fortunes. The Labour government is already doing worse than the Tories: it is down 16 percent in the polls, a showing that would likely give it only 107 MPs at the next election. Moreover, Reform's success in taking control of local councils is producing evidence that there is no magic formula for turning populist rhetoric into practical policies for dealing with public finance.
One asset that the Conservatives still have is that they understand how to manage the economy. On 26 November the Starmer government's reputation for economic management will be tested to the breaking point when the Chancellor presents a new budget. If it combines both tax increases and spending cuts, any Tory MP who gains media attention for skewering Sir Keir Starmer for Labour's economic U-turn will immediately become a front-runner for the post of Conservative leader,
Prof Richard Rose, f the University of Strathclyde is Britain's senior psephologist. He is currently writing a book on The Disruption of the British Party System.