Public support for Restore Britain is often invisible in the polls, because it is lumped in with Others. Even when its support is recorded in the polls, it averages about three percent. Restore Britain thus competes with the Scottish National Party for sixth place in votes and its one MP, founder Rupert Lowe, ties for fourteenth place among parties in the House of Commons.
Restore Britain's big impact is on Reform UK. It draws much of its support from Reform by offering stronger nationalist views such as Lowe's promises to stop immigration overnight and threats to prosecute public officials who "knowingly import third-world savages into our communities".
If Restore Britain can continue to claim three percent of the vote by running candidates nationwide, Electoral Calculus calculates this would reduce Reform UK to gaining 207 MPs at the next election. This is its lowest predicted number of MPs since April 2025 and 38 seats less than Reform was estimated to gain in May.
The Labour Party is the biggest gainer from a fall in Reform's vote, because the bulk of seats where Reform lead are held by Labour MPs. Compared to the May prediction, the transfer of votes from Reform to Restore Britain has been accompanied by Labour adding 48 MPs. Labour have even edged ahead of the Conservatives into second place in seats, though the Conservatives are predicted to gain 7 seats from the emergence of Restore Britain as a competitor on Reform's right.
Nigel Farage's party remains in first place in votes and predicted seats, but his chances of becoming prime minister have fallen. Currently there is only an 11pc likelihood that party could win a parliamentary majority. This is well down on the likelihood of doing so before Rupert Lowe began stealing his thunder.
The rocket-like ascent of Restore Britain leaves open whether it will be able to turn opinion poll support into ballots that count in over 600 constituencies at a general election three years hence. Doing so would require much more money and effort than putting up a candidate in a single by-election. It requires recruiting and vetting hundreds of candidates who will not have an online record of extreme racist and sexist views or convictions for fraud or worse.
If Rupert Lowe's party is unable to compete at the next general election, this would give Reform UK a a boost of around 70 seats, and push the Conservative and Labour parties down to about 100 MPs each. With 278 MPs Nigel Farage would be in a position to try forming a minority Reform government.
If Restore Britain manages to maintain its impact up to the next general election it would make forming any government extremely difficult. Current predictions suggest a left coalition of Labour, Liberal Democrats and Greens would fall 95 MPs short of having an absolute majority.
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