The Burnham bounce shows Labour is now first in the polls and predicted seats in the next House of Commons. While its half of one-percent lead over Reform UK is statistically insignificant, it is very significant politically. Electoral Calculus's analysis predicts that the boost would give Labour 244 seats, placing it far ahead of Reform, which is down to 127 seats.
Labour's ability to win almost twice as many seats as Reform is because at the constituency level Labour concentrates its support. This enables it to win almost ten MPs for every one percent of its share of the national vote. By contrast, by spreading its vote widely across constituencies, Reform wins just over five seats for every one percent of its share of the national vote. In a proportional representation election, the two parties would be virtually tied, with Labour taking 155 seats and Reform UK winning 152 seats.
Burnham's announcement of policies appealing to voters on the left has enabled Labour to regain a little support from people who had voted Labour in 2024 and then defected to other left parties. Thus, poll support for both the Liberal Democrats and the Greens has dropped. This, combined with Zack Polanski's well-publicized behaviour, has left the Greens the predicted winners of only 10 seats, while the Lib Dems continue to hold seats taken from the Conservatives.
The first-past-the-the-post system is nonetheless failing to do what it is supposed to do: produce a parliamentary majority enabling the leading party to govern on its own and be held accountable by the electorate. This month's prediction shows that Burnham has only a 10pc chance of gaining a majority in the next House of Commons.
Andy Burnham's openness to the electorate makes him far more suited than Keir Starmer to lead a coalition government. However, to make its number of MPs add up to a majority, Burnham would have to form a three-party coalition. Adding predicted Liberal Democrat and Green MPs to Labour's 244 seats would give it 324 MPs and, as long as Sinn Fein MPs abstained, the thinnest of parliamentary majorities.
A bouncing ball goes down as well as up, and the same is true of electoral support. Labour's rise is due in part to Burnham getting rid of the Starmer sag. A month before Andy Burnham won the Makerfield by-election by campaigning against the Starmer government, Labour was below 19pc in the polls and predicted to win only 83 seats. That advantage will fade rapidly as Burnham shows he is now in command of government and responsible for the cost of living.
Labour's autumn budget will test whether Burnham can turn his bounce into a rising balloon that is safe from popping. If the government makes unpopular spending cuts, tax rises or both, the party's opinion poll rating is likely to dribble down to 20pc or lower. To win a majority of seats at the next general election Andy Burnham will need to to win upwards of 30pc of the vote.
Professor Richard Rose's new book, The Disruption of the British Party System: A Guide to the Next General Election is available from Manchester University Press.